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rotting sea cow

Solving Coronavirus crisis?

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Two bits

- China closes the border to most of foreigners. Clearly, they fear that any of these passengers might bring the virus back into the country.

- Unemployment in US skyrocketed to levels unseen since 1930

Most of Western countries are facing an unprecendent crisis at different levels, sanitary, economic, social, political, etc.

What to do?  WTF do we do?

Just hiding in our homes and wait for the vaccine (~2 years) is clearly unthinkable. We will be eating each other well before that.

Trying to restart our lives will invite the virus again and start over. Two months in, two months out. Thousands will die regardless.

Any ideas? I don't have any except  hope that there is some medicine, etc that lessen the severity of the disease so we can continue with what remains of our lives.

 

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8 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Trying to restart our lives will invite the virus again and start over. Two months in, two months out. Thousands will die regardless.

The point isn't exactly to prevent people from being contaminated, but for the contamination to be gradual enough for contaminated people to be treated, and thus saved if possible. But the plan is not to hide from the virus at all.

A different way to put it: we're almost all going to get it anyway. The big idea is that we don't get it at the same time.

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You cannot solve it like make it disappear again, that could have worked two month ago but not now anymore.

but we can try to manage:

- continue lockdown until the infection rate is slowing down and the hospitals got all the ventilator, beds, materials, breathing mask etc they need

- it is very likely that two months from now we will have an antibody test to check who has had it and is already immun

- check everyone, then slowly lower lockdown, but not for the elderly/vulnarable

- let the elderly be cared for /visited etc) by the people who are immun

- check always extensively the infection rate to never let it rise again to a level the hospitals can't handle

- if it is rising another lockdown , always recheck and reevaluate (antibody test, infection test)

- and so on... continue until a vaccine is found

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Rippounet said:

The point isn't exactly to prevent people from being contaminated, but for the contamination to be gradual enough for contaminated people to be treated, and thus saved if possible. But the plan is not to hide from the virus at all.

A different way to put it: we're almost all going to get it anyway. The big idea is that we don't get it at the same time.

I've read all I need about "flattening the curve", etc. Believe me, I understand the issue. Thing is, if the virus is more contagious than reported, which apparently it is (R0>3, instad ~2.4), will mean that as soon you let the people out, it will again infect a large amount of persons quickly and you may need another quarantine. With such large infection rates, it will be hard to make that famous "hammer and the dance" that you have seen in some cartoons.

 

 

 

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Okay, to start again:

  • lockdown while we ramp up production of essential things - masks, gear, ventilators, ICU equipment, and most of all TESTING. (should last 1-2months)
  • When we have testing in place and reporting in place, we take off global lockdown
  • As we have outbreaks, we have local lockdowns in places with outbreaks, massive testing, etc.
  • Continue as needed.

We won't ever go to 'normal', but we can go back to a reasonably healthy economy with few restrictions. But in order to do this we must understand who has the virus, who they have contacted, where they have gone, and be able to do all of this quickly. 

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2 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Thing is, if the virus is more contagious than reported, which apparently it is (R0>3, instad ~2.4), will mean that as soon you let the people out, it will again infect a large amount of persons quickly and you may need another quarantine.

As I understand it, the hope is that people who have caught it develop some at least some level of immunity against it.
So it won't infect as many people the second time, even less so the third time... etc.

Also, we'll be using the time to build ICU beds, respirators, tests, and -eventually- a vaccine...

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4 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

As I understand it, the hope is that people who have caught it develop some at least some level of immunity against it.
So it won't infect as many people the second time, even less so the third time... etc.

Also, we'll be using the time to build ICU beds, respirators, tests, and -eventually- a vaccine...

also the already infected  and now immune persons would not be affected by the lock-downs and could always continue to care for others and to work, and we will have more and more of these the longer this crisis last

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3 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

As I understand it, the hope is that people who have caught it develop some at least some level of immunity against it.
So it won't infect as many people the second time, even less so the third time... etc.

Also, we'll be using the time to build ICU beds, respirators, tests, and -eventually- a vaccine...

Then we aren't infecting enough people! Estimates for Italy for example speak of about 500 thousand infected. A small percentage of the population, and you see how they are faring.

@JoannaL and @Kalbear thanks for your replies, yes, I've seen these plans, but I'm not sure if they are workable in the long term. I'm not thinking on the economic effects only, but also on social effects like influence in education, family relations, mental health, etc.

 

 

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Just now, rotting sea cow said:

 

@JoannaL and @Kalbear thanks for your replies, yes, I've seen these plans, but I'm not sure if they are workable in the long term. I'm not thinking on the economic effects only, but also on social effects like influence in education, family relations, mental health, etc.

 

I think that education is starting to show a lot of promise in distance learning and whatnot. People are adapting to harder times, and they will manage. As long as they can have money, work, and housing we can deal with a lot. 

But yes, a lot of this is predicated on the will for people to do it. If people simply don't do this...a lot of people will die. 

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Just now, Kalbear said:

I think that education is starting to show a lot of promise in distance learning and whatnot. People are adapting to harder times, and they will manage. As long as they can have money, work, and housing we can deal with a lot. 

But yes, a lot of this is predicated on the will for people to do it. If people simply don't do this...a lot of people will die. 

Tell that to parents who have to do homeoffice and homelearning with their kids. There are some who are desperate.

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3 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Tell that to parents who have to do homeoffice and homelearning with their kids. There are some who are desperate.

I am a parent who has to do home office, and my wife has to do home learning. It hasn't been super easy, but it's also been kind of awesome in a lot of other ways. 

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Uh, so in other words your prediction is that people over the age of 60 are trapped in their homes for two years or until a vaccine is produced?

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13 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Uh, so in other words your prediction is that people over the age of 60 are trapped in their homes for two years or until a vaccine is produced?

Mine? No. Mine is that local outbreaks will make people have to quarantine off and on again for a while. But as long as we get test capabilities, contact tracing and are willing to listen and do the right thing, we should be able for like everyone to go back to something resembling normalcy.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Mine? No. Mine is that local outbreaks will make people have to quarantine off and on again for a while. But as long as we get test capabilities, contact tracing and are willing to listen and do the right thing, we should be able for like everyone to go back to something resembling normalcy.

Not you, the OP.

Edited by Fragile Bird

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12 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Uh, so in other words your prediction is that people over the age of 60 are trapped in their homes for two years or until a vaccine is produced?

I think mandatory lockdowns are only necessary as long as hospitals are overwhelmed. But -though not mandatory-, I think for the elderly it would be advisable to not have any contact with not-immune persons until the vaccine is found. There are ways to make this easier, we have to get creative, one could envision extra hours in parks only for the vulnarabel (I think in Italy they have already extra hours for shopping). But yes the lockdown will likely be longer for them  as for example children, I think they need to run and play and be outside very soon, and they will very likely not die from it.

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2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

But the plan is not to hide from the virus at all.

A different way to put it: we're almost all going to get it anyway. The big idea is that we don't get it at the same time.

And this is a terrible plan. If we can't eradicate a shitty virus like this, we won't fare better when we'll face the kind of nasty that can kill 1/4 of the whole population. In such a case, "we're all going to catch it" simply won't be an option, but we'll still, once again, get caught with our pants down because most of our leaders will still don't have the faintest clue how to deal with such diseases and how to eradicate it.

Friendly reminder that China did eradicate it. That's why they're testing and quaratining everyone who wants to enter.

Right now, saying that we'll have to live with it is basically defeatism and admitting that we're ok with killing off 2% of our population, no matter what. It can be eradicated in the West, as it is being eradicated in the Far East. We just need better leaders that understand that and will put the means behind such an endeavour. Granted, it's harder to do it in poorer countries, so ultimately, complete vaccination will be the way to go, just like with smallpox.

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2 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Friendly reminder that China did eradicate it. That's why they're testing and quaratining everyone who wants to enter.

They have not. They controlled it and now are down to a few new cases a day, but they have not eradicated it.

2 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Right now, saying that we'll have to live with it is basically defeatism and admitting that we're ok with killing off 2% of our population, no matter what. It can be eradicated in the West, as it is being eradicated in the Far East. We just need better leaders that understand that and will put the means behind such an endeavour. Granted, it's harder to do it in poorer countries, so ultimately, complete vaccination will be the way to go, just like with smallpox.

It'll be eradicated in 12-18 months or so. Until then, you have a couple options - you can either have the whole population get immunity via contact, or you can do localized quarantines and limiting contacts with outsiders and a whole lot of testing. But neither eradicates it, any more  than measles is eradicated now. 

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18 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I am a parent who has to do home office, and my wife has to do home learning. It hasn't been super easy, but it's also been kind of awesome in a lot of other ways. 

It hasn't been awesome in any way whatsoever here. It's been awful.  The schools weren't prepared. My there are 8 different classes to keep track of for each of two kids and at least 4 different platforms being used. My younger isn't sure how to use the technology to turn assignments in  (some teachers are asking to have things emailed, some are using Google classroom, some saying wait until they go back and turn in paper copies). My older is trying to schedule Zoom and WebEx calls while both parents and also need quiet places for conference calls. Neither one are good with time management and resent us and looking over their shoulders all the time, because teenagers.  I cannot teach honors Chemistry or Algebra II/Trigonometry and yet the NY Board of Regents still says they are having state exams in June, It's a mess. 

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Yeah China has certainly not eradicated it and doing so simply isn’t possible. It exists and it’s out there. If you even believed the Chinese numbers, which you probably shouldn’t, then even when they start to let people out again they will see another wave of infections. That is probably how it is going to be for the next couple of years until we’ve all had it or there is some kind of vaccine

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does one solve a plague in a ways other than HGW envisions?

Quote

For so it had come about, as indeed I and many men might have foreseen had not terror and disaster blinded our minds. These germs of disease have taken toll of humanity since the beginning of things — taken toll of our prehuman ancestors since life began here. But by virtue of this natural selection of our kind we have developed resisting power; to no germs do we succumb without a struggle, and to many — those that cause putrefaction in dead matter, for instance — our living frames are altogether immune. But there are no bacteria in Mars, and directly these invaders arrived, directly they drank and fed, our microscopic allies began to work their overthrow. Already when I watched them they were irrevocably doomed, dying and rotting even as they went to and fro. It was inevitable. By the toll of a billion deaths man has bought his birthright of the earth, and it is his against all comers; it would still be his were the Martians ten times as mighty as they are. For neither do men live nor die in vain.

 

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