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Solving Coronavirus crisis?

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19 hours ago, Rippounet said:

The point isn't exactly to prevent people from being contaminated, but for the contamination to be gradual enough for contaminated people to be treated, and thus saved if possible. But the plan is not to hide from the virus at all.

A different way to put it: we're almost all going to get it anyway. The big idea is that we don't get it at the same time.

This strategy depends a lot on how many people already have it though. For example, here is a fairly detailed page for New York City which currently shows around 23K confirmed cases out of around 51K tested. Now, if there really are around 23K (or even 100K) cases in NYC right now, then we're totally screwed because the total population is over 8 million and the hospitals are already strained and even 100K cases would mean just a little over 1% of the population will be immune.

Ironically, the shortage of testing is good news in this respect -- it's quite likely that there are actually half a million cases or more in which case the herd immunity idea could work within a few months. However, we don't know because the testing is so limited and the same goes for most other places. We really need to scale up the testing so that literally everyone can get tested (rather than less than 1% of the population as is the case in NYC) and also test for antibodies so that we know who has already had it (because by the time the testing is scaled up, there will be a lot of people like that).

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1 hour ago, Whitestripe said:

It hasn't been awesome in any way whatsoever here. It's been awful.  The schools weren't prepared. My there are 8 different classes to keep track of for each of two kids and at least 4 different platforms being used. My younger isn't sure how to use the technology to turn assignments in  (some teachers are asking to have things emailed, some are using Google classroom, some saying wait until they go back and turn in paper copies). My older is trying to schedule Zoom and WebEx calls while both parents and also need quiet places for conference calls. Neither one are good with time management and resent us and looking over their shoulders all the time, because teenagers.  I cannot teach honors Chemistry or Algebra II/Trigonometry and yet the NY Board of Regents still says they are having state exams in June, It's a mess. 

Sorry :( That sucks a lot. 

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When we do have to go back to work people will be a lot more keen on following the rules, washing hands, social distancing, working from home more often, self isolating straight away etc.   It should make future outbreaks less intense in theory.  

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22 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Uh, so in other words your prediction is that people over the age of 60 are trapped in their homes for two years or until a vaccine is produced?

Yes, more or less, if we don't want them to die by the score. The thing is - from my limited understanding -  that as soon as you loose the restriction, the disease will come back, fast. See the China, who have "defeated" the virus at an enormous cost and now they are forced to close the borders, etc. See the situation in Italy, and that is far from infecting a big fraction of the population so that the next wave might be slower, because immunity yadayada.

We are making huge efforts just to avoid that a small fraction of the society gets infected, because even that small fraction will collapse hospitals, which is the main reason behind people dying.

And I'm not talking only about the economic costs, which will be enormous, but also the human one. My original post was actually triggered by hearing my quite reserved neighbour crying loud. She is an older lady, maybe in her 60s, who gets visited every weekend by her grandchildren. You can hear her laugh in those instances. Now she cries. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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All this talk of mitigation etc is just the acknowledgment of failure and inability. 
 

1) get this first wave under control, it’s on the way, nothing can change it, prepare your capacity 

2) at the same time do systematic mass testing and contact tracing, terminate all those little fires before they become big (new waves)

3) after you get the first wave „under control“ and the new infections down to a country-dependent level, you start to re-open certain things 

4) no mass gatherings till the vaccine  Stadiums, concerts etc (those are uncontrollable environments)

5) testing testing testing 

6) discipline (which Koreans have, Chinese have)

7) if a fire starts to grow in a certain region you act fast and hard: lockdown. Be hyper-sensitive and act early 

8) a data-based risk assessment of risk groups (levels 1-10, 8+ stays at home anyway under full compensation, 6/7 when early warning indicators go from green to yellow, just examples)
 

Forget the herd immunity bullshit. Your most important asset after ICUs obviously: diagnostics capabilities 

 

 

 

 

 

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Can I just point out that 2 years from now is an extremely pessimistic timeline for the vaccine development. They've already got candidates into human trials. With the amount of resources being thrown at it - within 18 months or it won't happen imo. Some facilities are planning to start mass production of the promising candidates long before trials have been completed. That alone could cut 6 months off the usual timeline.

However even in the abscence of a vaccine, just a delay of a couple months to get ICU beds up, straff trained, PPE stockpiled, and the needed ventilator production will save a huge number of lives.

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4 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Can I just point out that 2 years from now is an extremely pessimistic timeline for the vaccine development. They've already got candidates into human trials. With the amount of resources being thrown at it - within 18 months or it won't happen imo. Some facilities are planning to start mass production of the promising candidates long before trials have been completed. That alone could cut 6 months off the usual timeline.

However even in the abscence of a vaccine, just a delay of a couple months to get ICU beds up, straff trained, PPE stockpiled, and the needed ventilator production will save a huge number of lives.

Well, the optimistic talk is March next year we have a functional vaccine ready to be mass-produced. Hopefully there will be a concerted effort. The world is bigger than just Europe and the US, or China. 3/4 months I guess until all the highest risk groups are taken care of. 
 

And maybe we will never have a vaccine. I think a range of effective anti-virals is the best thing we can realistically hope for. 

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On 3/26/2020 at 1:44 PM, Kalbear said:

Okay, to start again:

  • lockdown while we ramp up production of essential things - masks, gear, ventilators, ICU equipment, and most of all TESTING. (should last 1-2months)
  • When we have testing in place and reporting in place, we take off global lockdown
  • As we have outbreaks, we have local lockdowns in places with outbreaks, massive testing, etc.
  • Continue as needed.

We won't ever go to 'normal', but we can go back to a reasonably healthy economy with few restrictions. But in order to do this we must understand who has the virus, who they have contacted, where they have gone, and be able to do all of this quickly. 

This seems realistic. Not sure about the timeline, but clearly we will need to adapt to this virus being an enduring part of our lives, probably for at least the next 18 months to 2 years. At some point, I think there may be a political realignment on the need for M4A or some similar single-payer problem. I see this as part of the adaptation process - the creation of a national public health infrastructure; the continued existence of a for profit healthcare system will increasingly be seen as an absurdity.

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4 hours ago, Arakan said:

All this talk of mitigation etc is just the acknowledgment of failure and inability. 

This, exactly this.

Talking about waiting 2 years for a vaccine to get serious is just plain defeatism, and as far as I'm concerned, we wouldn't really deserve to survive as a species if we can't get fully rid of the virus from our countries before that, when we have all the means at disposal and when we actually know how to do it.

Besides, where the fuck were our benevolent leaders? These idiots could've seen more than a month ago that shit was going to hit the fan and the example of Hubei was proof enough that no healthcare system can withstand the pandemic if it's not massively boosted with medics, supplies and equipment. Why did they wait that long before thinking of retooling some industries or before asking big pharma to focus on actually useful stuff for once? Why didn't they have any plan? Were they just playing golf and drinking champagne?

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