Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

[Jace, Extat]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

Methinks someone has a thing for young dictators...

Who doesn't?

Glad my presence is felt on these boards even when I'm strap-on deep in science fiction, though.

 

[Lord Varys]

Turns out my girlfried (and thus I, too) are fine. She got tested yesterday and got her negative results this morning.

[Darzin]

10 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Has there been any independent confirmation of China’s reported numbers? The cynic in me feels like there are a lot of governments that are just fudging the data.

I actually think China is being more honest about the numbers than people think. At least in the city I live in the numbers seem to be accurate. It's public knowledge which buildings had infected people, there was an app for it, and which units had infected people as there are seals on the doors. I'm not saying it's the same everywhere but here at least I'm confident the numbers are accurate. I think the strictness of the quarantine combined with the fact wearing a mask is required, meaning droplets are not being spread got it under control. And even  with businesses starting it still sounds stricter than the US. If you  travel to another city within China  you  need to do two weeks quarantine, wearing a mask is still required, and there is a health app which is monitoring everyone that you use to enter crowded places.   

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 hours ago, Mudguard said:

My understanding is that China kicked out reporters from the New York Times, Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal in retaliation for the US reducing the numbers of visas it would grant to employees of Chinese state media outlets.  There should be plenty of Western journalists still in China.

The numbers in China don't look out of line to me at all.  The most stringent restrictions in the US are nowhere near as severe as those implemented in China.  When Chinese experts recently visited Italy to help out, they told them that there measures were insufficient.  It's been clear for a very long time that numbers were going to skyrocket in the West because very little was being done, and still aren't being done.  I've pretty much resigned myself now that we just don't have the will in the West to do what is necessary.  We don't even have the will to do the little things that are easy, like wear masks or some sort of facial covering when we go outside.  It's still a joke to many people here.  China isn't the only country that is having success at keeping the numbers under control.  Just look at the other asian countries like Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan that have had to deal with SARS before.

The numbers in the US have been very consistently doubling about every 3 days since the beginning of March, when we only had 100 reported cases.  If you look at the total number of cases in the US using a logarithmic scale, it's amazingly linear.  It's been very obvious for the past several weeks that we would surpass China before the end of the month.  I think the question now is whether we've done enough to stop the cases from hitting a million here.  250k seems inevitable, and 500k seems likely unless we see a substantial reducing in the rate of infection in the next few days.  This is not panicking, or hyperbole.  At the current rate of doubling, we would hit 1 million in less than two weeks.  We should hopefully be seeing the effects of the quarantine measures that were put in place a couple weeks ago soon.  I think it might buy us some time, but I don't think we've done enough to get the R0 number below 1, which is what is needed to get things under control.

Sorry, I missed this. Will respond when I get some time to look into it more.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, Darzin said:

I actually think China is being more honest about the numbers than people think. At least in the city I live in the numbers seem to be accurate. It's public knowledge which buildings had infected people, there was an app for it, and which units have infected people as there are seals on the doors. I'm not saying it's  same everywhere but here at least I'm confident the numbers are accurate. I think the strictness of the quarantine combined with the fact wearing a mask is required, meaning droplets are not being spread got it under control. And if with businesses starting it still sounds stricter than the US. If travel to another city within you need to do two weeks quarantine, wearing a mask is still required, and there is a health app which is monitoring everyone that you use to enter crowded places.   

Is it strange as an American that I actually really like this? And then really hate it too? 

Brave New World,

And I'll just leave this link to a past quote.

[ants]

A good video by an Australian doctor explaining things. Very moving. 
 

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10158672694824363&id=652904362

[Mudguard]

33 minutes ago, Darzin said:

I actually think China is being more honest about the numbers than people think. At least in the city I live in the numbers seem to be accurate. It's public knowledge which buildings had infected people, there was an app for it, and which units have infected people as there are seals on the doors. I'm not saying it's  same everywhere but here at least I'm confident the numbers are accurate. I think the strictness of the quarantine combined with the fact wearing a mask is required, meaning droplets are not being spread got it under control. And if with businesses starting it still sounds stricter than the US. If travel to another city within you need to do two weeks quarantine, wearing a mask is still required, and there is a health app which is monitoring everyone that you use to enter crowded places.   

In the US, the experts have stated that wearing masks is not needed, and in some cases have recommended against doing so.  Instead, we are told to just cough into our elbows.  Seriously.  Wouldn't a mask or any facial covering work way better at catching droplets than your elbow?  Some of our grocery stores are still crowded, and people are still taking public transportation.  Imagine a sick person coughing in the subway, bus, or supermarket in the food area.  Droplets that can be infectious for days are going everywhere.  Our harshest lock downs and best sanitary practices are still mediocre at best.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

11 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

In the US, the experts have stated that wearing masks is not needed, and in some cases have recommended against doing so.  Instead, we are told to just cough into our elbows.  Seriously.  Wouldn't a mask or any facial covering work way better at catching droplets than your elbow?  Some of our grocery stores are still crowded, and people are still taking public transportation.  Imagine a sick person coughing in the subway, bus, or supermarket in the food area.  Droplets that can be infectious for days are going everywhere.  Our harshest lock downs and best sanitary practices are still mediocre at best.

Dude, I stayed late at the office to personally clean it, because my coworkers are fucking disgusting. 

 

[Darzin]

49 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Is it strange as an American that I actually really like this? And then really hate it too? 

Brave New World,
 

I'm also American and I feel the same way. But I have to say I feel a hell of a lot more confidence in the authorities here then then in the US right now. The local Wuhan government made some pretty bad Chernobyl like mistakes but once the central government figured out what was happening they responded swiftly, and basically put the country on a war footing for two months, both economically and even propaganda wise. There were planes of doctors and nurses being deployed to Wuhan, The Chinese equivalent of the CDC is basically running Wuhan and Hubei as the local officials were removed. The president went and congratulated lines doctors and nurses the way one does soldiers and held them up as heroes of China. Then everything shut down except grocery stores pharmacies and government ministries.

Now it's under control but opening up will be the real test because I doubt it will be possible to do this again which is why there are still precautions  constant temperature checks when you leave and enter an area and everyone still wearing masks. Unfortunately some cities are not being as strict with the mask thing because if 100% of people are wearing masks when they go out as is the case in the city I'm living in I have a hard time seeing how the virus can spread. I'm hoping the local government keeps that rule in place for a few months at least. 

[Sharpes]

 25 sailors test positive on USS Theodore Roosevelt
That escalated quickly, was only 3 reported with 'mild symptoms' two days ago. Apparently picked it up when they were in port in Da Nang, Vietnam early March. :|

Some good news. Looks like Tom Hanks and Rita survived their isolation and are back in LA.

Also, puppies!

 

 

[Arakan]

Another thing and maybe a wake-up call that the world is changing. 
Global Health Security Index (GHS). According to this British study, the two best prepared countries for a global pandemic were the 1. US (score 83.5 out of 100), 2. the UK (77.9)....Rank 9 South Korea (70.2), Rank 14 Germany (66). 
 

Well, the reality looks quite different. Experts in Asia and Germany have often dismissed the validity of this study, the „bible“ of epidemiology, under the hand saying its biased towards the Anglosphere. Reality proves them right. 
No, all you MAGAs America is not the bestest in the world in everything. No, all you Brexiteers, the UK doesn’t know always better than the rest of the world. Arrogance and hubris too often leads to misery. 

[BigFatCoward]

13 minutes ago, Arakan said:

Another thing and maybe a wake-up call that the world is changing. 
Global Health Security Index (GHS). According to this British study, the two best prepared countries for a global pandemic were the 1. US (score 83.5 out of 100), 2. the UK (77.9)....Rank 9 South Korea (70.2), Rank 14 Germany (66). 
 

Well, the reality looks quite different. Experts in Asia and Germany have often dismissed the validity of this study, the „bible“ of epidemiology, under the hand saying its biased towards the Anglosphere. Reality proves them right. 
No, all you MAGAs America is not the bestest in the world in everything. No, all you Brexiteers, the UK doesn’t know always better than the rest of the world. Arrogance and hubris too often leads to misery. 

While I dont necessarily disagree with you, during the pandemic is not the time to judge success or failure. 

[Arakan]

Just now, BigFatCoward said:

While I dont necessarily disagree with you, during the pandemic is not the time to judge success or failure. 

I agree but those things should not be forgotten. There must be consequences for failure. It cannot be that it goes unpunished, people are dying right now who absolutely didn’t need to die. This is the reality. The testkit Desaster in the US, the reluctance to start mass testing at all. The reluctance to learn from others (SK) in the beginning („best practice approach“). There must be consequences. 

[Heartofice]

This was a very interesting thread on the UK response, on how things have been moving since the beginning of the year, on how actions have been determined by modelling but the issue being that the data wasn’t always available.

It should also be stressed that the WHO made some pretty incorrect statements about the virus in Jan, no doubt they were far too trusting of the info coming out of China.

[Arakan]

The point is and that was heavily criticized by quite a few experts, that the selection of parameters was biased, the weighting of parameters was biased. Biased so that certain countries come up on top. 
 

Tell me, how can you be prepared for a pandemic when you have laughable diagnostics capabilities? You can buy a million testkits, they are useless if you can’t process them (laboratories, scientific staff, medical staff). The UK isn’t testing more because the testkits are so expensive, they simply do not or did not have the laboratory capacity! I would say this very much qualifies as to who is prepared  

Questions have to be asked. And people must be held accountable. In each of our countries. 

[Arakan]

8 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

This was a very interesting thread on the UK response, on how things have been moving since the beginning of the year, on how actions have been determined by modelling but the issue being that the data wasn’t always available.

It should also be stressed that the WHO made some pretty incorrect statements about the virus in Jan, no doubt they were far too trusting of the info coming out of China.

Always shifting the blame. Always. Your comment about the WHO. I hear them a lot in the US, in the UK. By a certain demographic. Not in Austria, not in Germany. The WHO made comments for professionals who knew how to read them. Professionals knew that crucial scientific and empirical information about the virus and the disease will shift and change. 
 

MAGAs and Brexiteers are always predictable. But go on. Blame the WHO. Other countries with the same set of information will instead go on and do a professional job. 

[Castellan]

3 hours ago, Mudguard said:

In the US, the experts have stated that wearing masks is not needed, and in some cases have recommended against doing so.  Instead, we are told to just cough into our elbows.  Seriously.  Wouldn't a mask or any facial covering work way better at catching droplets than your elbow?  

At some stage in the information stream here in Australia someone (not sure who) stated explicitly the masks are not being recommended because they don't want to encourage a run on them when health workers need them.

Tthere is one company in Australia that manufactures masks and they have two machines (plus one that was mothballed) and supply 5% of the Australian market. They have been asked to up their output and supplied wth defence force staff. Hard to imagine it can make much impact.

[BigFatCoward]

2 minutes ago, Arakan said:

Always shifting the blame. Always. Your comment about the WHO. I hear them a lot in the US, in the UK. By a certain demographic. Not in Austria, not in Germany. The WHO made comments for professionals who knew how to read them. Professionals knew that crucial scientific and empirical information about the virus and the disease will shift and change. 
 

MAGAs and Brexiteers are always predictable. But go on. Blame the WHO. Other countries with the same set of information will instead go on and do a professional job. 

You come across as someone with a huge axe to grind. 

[Arakan]

Just now, BigFatCoward said:

You come across as someone with a huge axe to grind. 

Yes. Because this escalation was not necessary. Latest February 23rd it got serious in Europe. Anyway. I just want that those who downplayed or outright denied the gravity of the situation will be held accountable. And I cannot stand when facts are ignored to paint a picture which fits my world view. I will tone it down. People are dying right now who could be alive if certain individuals in positions of power were not egomaniacs. 

[RhaenysBee]

We have 45 closed cases, 298 open cases and a 25% mortality rate so far. I suppose the only way one can survive this here is not contract the virus or not develop serious symptoms.