Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

[Ran]

9 hours ago, Cridefea said:

Yes probably  New Zeland is not comparable because of what you said in your previous post, but we need to be careful about any chart right now, probably is too early to understand what's better and what's worse based on those charts. See China and its number of deceased.

I can't speak for other countries, but here it was quite the opposite. I don't know what media said outside Italy, did they say otherwise?

I admit I don't have a full track of what every European country has said about its decisions. All I know for sure is that the health authorities of Denmark and Norway have indicated that some of the decisions made by their respective governments were made by the politicians and not by them. Even now the Norwegian health authorities wanted to start reopening schools and were again overriden by the political side of the government.

I do see that Foreign Policy magazine's reporting kind of strongly implies that Italy's problems are caused by a political failure rather than a governmental failure, per se. The New York Times, as well. I haven't read these in detail and don't know how well they match up to reporting in Italy.

[Arakan]

4 hours ago, Triskele said:

I hate being on Tom Cotton's side on anything, but are China's death figures reliable?  

Why always China? Fight your bias. 
Of course China tuned the figures but so do a lot of other countries. Italy, France, UK. In Italy‘s case it has already been proven with hard data excess death analysis. I don’t know where you are from, but 95% of all these discussions are coming either from the UK or the US. Why? 

[Scott_N]

4 hours ago, Triskele said:

I hate being on Tom Cotton's side on anything, but are China's death figures reliable?  

The chances of the CCP being entirely truthful about anything, I would estimate at about 0%.

[Ran]

1 minute ago, Scott_N said:

The chances of the CCP being entirely truthful about anything, I would estimate at about 0%.

Yeah.

Chinese natives are making calculations based on the reports of the crematoriums running 24/7 and have estimated around 45000 dead in Wuhan city. Taking into account a normal death rate if 15000 at the time, that's an excess of 30000 deaths. Maybe.

 

 

[Mudguard]

13 minutes ago, Ran said:

Yeah.

Chinese natives are making calculations based on the reports of the crematoriums running 24/7 and have estimated around 45000 dead in Wuhan city. Taking into account a normal death rate if 15000 at the time, that's an excess of 30000 deaths. Maybe.

 

 

Were the crematoriums put on hold during the duration of the quarantine?  If so, there would be a large backlog of dead to burn once they reopened.  Do you have any citations from a reputable cite that supports this hypothesis?  I found a Time article that states people have suspicions, but nothing conclusive.  According to the Time article, there were 56,000 cremations in the fourth quarter of 2019.  If the crematoriums were put on hold for around 2 to 3 months, 45000 dead appears in line to me.  Where is the 15000 number coming from?

Quote

There were 56,007 cremations in Wuhan in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to data from the city’s civil affairs agency. The number of cremations was 1,583 higher than those in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 2,231 higher than the fourth quarter of 2017.

The story still seems speculative to me, bordering on conspiracy theory, if the crematoriums were put on hold during the quarantine.

[Rippounet]

14 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

May I ask you which home management were you recommended during the disease? Like drink lot of liquids and stay warm? 

Rest and stay hydrated. But the main advice was always to stay home.

For actual medication, paracetamol and vutamin c.

[Arakan]

17 minutes ago, Ran said:

Yeah.

Chinese natives are making calculations based on the reports of the crematoriums running 24/7 and have estimated around 45000 dead in Wuhan city. Taking into account a normal death rate if 15000 at the time, that's an excess of 30000 deaths. Maybe.

 

 

MILAN (Reuters) - As the official death toll from Italy's coronavirus outbreak passes 2,500, a silent surge in fatalities in nursing homes, where dozens of patients a day are dying untested for the virus, suggests the real total may be higher.

Official data show that nearly 30,000 people have been confirmed as positive for the coronavirus in Italy, the highest number outside China where the virus first emerged. 

But strict testing rules mean only patients hospitalized with severe symptoms are normally being swab tested.

While no detailed data is available, officials, nurses and relatives say there has been a spike in nursing home deaths in the worst affected regions of northern Italy since the virus emerged, and they are not showing up in coronavirus statistics.

"There are significant numbers of people who have died but whose death hasn't been attributed to the coronavirus because they died at home or in a nursing home and so they weren't swabbed," said Giorgio Gori, mayor of the town of Bergamo.

Gori said there had been 164 deaths in his town in the first two weeks of March this year, of which 31 were attributed to the coronavirus. That compares with 56 deaths over the same period last year.

Even adding the 31 coronavirus deaths to that total would leave 77 additional deaths, an increase that suggests the virus may have caused significantly more deaths than officially recorded.

 

ETA: article from 18.03.2020 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2152V0

[Heartofice]

Undoubtedly some western governments are going to use China to deflect from their own failings, but that also doesn’t mean that we should jump on China’s side and not criticise their actions.

The ‘urn’ story is concerning though I’m waiting to see what comes out of it. That a number of whistleblowers were ignored or ‘disappeared’ is also pretty concerning. 
 

Trying to compare China to western governments doesn’t work. We don’t operate in the same way.

[Arakan]

Just now, Heartofice said:

Undoubtedly some western governments are going to use China to deflect from their own failings, but that also doesn’t mean that we should jump on China’s side and not criticise their actions.

The ‘urn’ story is concerning though I’m waiting to see what comes out of it. That a number of whistleblowers were ignored or ‘disappeared’ is pretty concerning. 
 

Trying to compare China to western governments doesn’t work. We don’t operate in the same way.

There are no „Western governments“. First, it is insulting to be put in the same category as DT USA. Second, it is factually wrong. 

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Arakan said:

There are no „Western governments“. First, it is insulting to be put in the same category as DT USA. Second, it is factually wrong. 

Think you can fairly describe Europe and the US as ‘western’ in comparison to China

[Arakan]

Just now, Heartofice said:

Think you can fairly describe Europe and the US as ‘western’ in comparison to China

You can describe them however you want but factually it is simple untrue to put all „western governments“ into one category. We are speaking of C19 specifically, not politics in general. And even then, the term „western governments“ might have meant something 20 years ago. Nowadays it’s just hollow. 

[Arakan]

Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31

In Nembro the almost deserted streets, the absent traffic, a strange silence is sometimes interrupted by the siren of an ambulance that carries with it the anxiety and worry that fill the hearts of all in these weeks. In Nembro every member of the community continuously receives news that he never wanted to hear, every day we lose people who were part of our lives and our community. Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

article from 26.03

[Ran]

42 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

Were the crematoriums put on hold during the duration of the quarantine?  If so, there would be a large backlog of dead to burn once they reopened.  Do you have any citations from a reputable cite that supports this hypothesis?

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

Speculative, but a number of Chinese citizens have their names on record sharing information, and there are quotes from (nameless) Wuhan officials. Foreign Policy in early February also seems to mention many local reports about cremations having been ramping up, which doesn't suggest to me the crematoriums were shut down.

I considered this stuff a conspiracy theory as well back in February, but it's getting hard to believe that the numbers in China, at least in Wuhan, are correct seeing the development of this in other countries.

ETA: Have no problem believing that in Italy and France there are excess deaths not being counted as covid because of lack of testing and other factors. Retrospective analysis will clarify this. I don't believe there is any widespread governmental effort at a national evel in those countries to deliberately downplay numbers... well, not in France anyways.  Regionally, I couldn't say. 

The US will also end up like this, by the by. It will take a year or two for the dust to clear and people to really get a sense of the scale of this.

[Arakan]

7 minutes ago, Ran said:

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

Speculative, but a number of Chinese citizens have their names on record sharing information, and there are quotes from (nameless) Wuhan officials. Foreign Policy in early February also seems to mention many local reports about cremations having been ramping up, which doesn't suggest to me the crematoriums were shut down.

I considered this stuff a conspiracy theory as well back in February, but it's getting hard to believe that the numbers in China, at least in Wuhan, are correct seeing the development of this in other countries.

ETA: Have no problem believing that in Italy and France there are excess deaths not being counted as covid because of lack of testing and other factors. Retrospective analysis will clarify this. I don't believe there is any widespread governmental effort at a national evel in those countries to deliberately downplay numbers... well, not in France anyways.  Regionally, I couldn't say. 

The US will also end up like this, by the by. It will take a year or two for the dust to clear and people to really get a sense of the scale of this.

Problem is, politicians will make it „a Numbers‘ Game“ and a „Contest“, at least that’s what I fear. Especially populist politicians. Which Xi is for sure. For Trump goes the same. Remember what he said only 3 weeks ago  „I like the numbers low, I like as they are now.“ something like that. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 hours ago, DMC said:

I totally want to live in Peter Jackson's bunker forever.

The Return of the King’s tone and characterization were all wrong.

[john]

Check this out

Quote

The ambulance, which was transporting a coronavirus patient Terneuzen (NL) via the Antwerp (BE) ring road, was stopped and forced by an operator to pay the €6 toll. 

This story first emerged in the form of a Facebook post by paramedic Martijn Hendriks, one of the personnel aboard the ambulance. In his post, he explains that they had crossed the border without trouble, but around 10km further down the road — by the Liefkenshoektunnel — they were stopped by a barrier.

They reportedly waited around 10 minutes before finally getting through to an operator via the intercom at the barrier, and to be told they would not be able to pass through as expected, but would in fact have to pay the €6 toll fee before preceding. Driving up to the toll booth, matters were further complicated by the operators refusal to accept their 'corona infected [cash] money'.

 

[Mudguard]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

Speculative, but a number of Chinese citizens have their names on record sharing information, and there are quotes from (nameless) Wuhan officials. Foreign Policy in early February also seems to mention many local reports about cremations having been ramping up, which doesn't suggest to me the crematoriums were shut down.

I considered this stuff a conspiracy theory as well back in February, but it's getting hard to believe that the numbers in China, at least in Wuhan, are correct seeing the development of this in other countries.

ETA: Have no problem believing that in Italy and France there are excess deaths not being counted as covid because of lack of testing and other factors. Retrospective analysis will clarify this. I don't believe there is any widespread governmental effort at a national evel in those countries to deliberately downplay numbers... well, not in France anyways.  Regionally, I couldn't say. 

The US will also end up like this, by the by. It will take a year or two for the dust to clear and people to really get a sense of the scale of this.

That's essentially the same story as my Time's article and the Newsweek article Trisk shared (both the Newsweek and Times article added the info about the 56,000 deaths in the 4th quarter of 2019), which I read after making my post and I assume is where you initially got your info.

I don't see anything unusual with the numbers.  Why does the author of the Newsweek article cited by Trisk assume that there should be 16000 deaths during the 2.5 month period when there was 56,000 deaths in the 4th quarter of 2019?  56,000*2.5/3 =46,667 deaths expected over a 2.5 month period.  That is in line with the 42,000 urns estimate.

For there to be 30,000 deaths from COVID-19 in Wuhan would mean that there were at least 300K cases in Wuhan alone, if you assume a worse case 10% fatality rate due to an overwhelmed health care system like we are seeing in Italy.  There should have been thousands dying per day during the peak.  Is it possible to hide that many deaths?  I also thought that they were placing all the infected in makeshift camps.  They would have had to build ten times the number of camps to house this many infected.  Something of that magnitude would be visible on satellite.  I'm not sure that it's possible to completely lock down that type of bombshell.

 

[Fragile Bird]

I just saw an article saying the Chinese are looking at cholesterol levels in Covid-19 patients. Cholesterol levels drop while the patients are first infected then start rising again.

Apparently the role of cholesterol fighting off infections is being investigated everywhere, against Ebola, Rift Valley Fever and other deadly pathogens.

A 1997 Lancet article discussed findings that seniors with high cholesterol are best protected from cancer and infections.

Statins being taken to lower cholesterol interfere with the flu vaccine.

 

[the Greenleif Stark]

So here's a thought........they're now saying the rona could kill 100-200,000 people, here in the US.  With obesity accounting for roughly 300,000 deaths a year and tobacco killing almost 500,000 people a year in America, why not combat those issues with the daily numbers like they're are with the rona?  People seem to be taking rona seriously, if we were hit with the tobacco and obesity numbers daily maybe they would resonate more?

[Buckwheat]

So the stricter limitations on moving outside now mean that we are not allowed to leave our communes/municipalities, except for going to work. It is only allowed to go shopping for food, to the pharmacy, to get medical care and some other necessary places. It is necessary to wear gloves and cover your mouth and nose when entering these places.

Also, the vulnerable groups, mainly the elderly, are only allowed to go shopping between 8.00 AM and 10.00 AM, as these hours are reserved for them.

The new (far right) government is now reserving its right to track citizens' movement by their mobile phones or some shit. Most people don't seem to agree with that, as it seems way too invasive of people's privacy.

And yet, building sites and factories are still operating, without much care for the workers' health apparently. I am not sure finishing some new office buildings is now a priority.