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Tywin Manderly

Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

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11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Interesting if true. And just that line of thought in and of itself shows what I'm saying. Who knows if your info is good either? This fucker moves to quickly, and we have far from the best people in charge in many places. 

Also, it's cynical, but your English is far better than my German. Only took one semester in college. I had an A going into the last couple of weeks of the year, but dropped it to get into a program heading to Argentina. It didn't help that most of the audio exercises where street conversations, because you could only hear two-thirds of the dialogue and Germans make up words on the fly! 

The official wording by the UK authorities, from today (those cheeky smartasses hahaha, noooooo we don’t lie like those commie Chinese or those Allahu Akbar Iranians...you just have to read carefully). 

As of 5pm on 28 March, of those hospitalised in the UK, 1,228 have sadly died.

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8 minutes ago, Arakan said:

The official wording by the UK authorities, from today (those cheeky smartasses hahaha, noooooo we don’t lie like those commie Chinese or those Allahu Akbar Iranians...you just have to read carefully). 

As of 5pm on 28 March, of those hospitalised in the UK, 1,228 have sadly died.

Again, if verifiable, what a joke. 

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Posted (edited)

So took the dog out for a two mile run/walk. It didn't help that it was cold and a little rainy, but man, I used the word eerie just a couple of weeks ago and this was starkly different. I saw next to no one. Two other dog walkers. A couple walking together. A dad with a few kids in the park. Maybe five cars. And that was it in a fairly busy area. Good! 

I live right next to a major highway and different hospital though, and am hearing an unusual amount of sirens from my window. 

Edited by Tywin et al.

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Apparently Southeast Michigan, Detroit area, is "burning" - i.e., media-speak for an overwhelming number of C19 cases.  They better get a handle on things fast.

From the Detroit Free Press: "How widespread the virus really is, and how many people have contracted it, but don't have confirmation through testing, remains unknown. Access to tests and testing supplies remain very limited in Michigan, which has conducted 15,282 coronavirus tests on a population of nearly 10 million since late February in the state's Department of Health and Human Services labs, hospitals and commercial labs.

What we do know is that the official coronavirus case count is currently doubling about every three days in Michigan. At this rate, Michigan could reach 10,000 cases on Wednesday, and surpass 25,000 on Sunday, if the growth rate doesn't slow, and the state is able to test enough people accurately to assess the caseload. "Southeast Michigan is burning right now," said Dr. Teena Chopra, medical director of infection prevention and hospital epidemiology at DMC Harper University Hospital and a professor at Wayne State University. The surge has begun.

Saturday morning, the state ranked seventh nationally in the number of confirmed cases per capita, behind New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Washington, Massachusetts and the District of Columbia. Dr. Teena Chopra, medical director of infection prevention and hospital epidemiology at DMC Harper University Hospital, DETROIT MEDICAL CENTER

All indications suggest Detroit is a new hotspot for a fast-spreading coronavirus that was first discovered in December in China and spread like wildfire around the world. The United States now has more confirmed cases than anywhere else globally - more than 120,000 - and more than 2,000 deaths. Wayne County, with Detroit as the county seat, is in the top counties nationally for COVID-19 cases. The infection rate in Detroit is 205 per 100,000 residents, compared to 132 per 100,000 in Wayne County and 47 per 100,000 in the state."

 

Trump better not count on Michigan this election.

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Dr. Fauci was on CNN this morning and he said the US should brace itself for 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. I thought I misheard him, but they are re-running the interview. That's pretty damn chilling.

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19 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Dr. Fauci was on CNN this morning and he said the US should brace itself for 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. I thought I misheard him, but they are re-running the interview. That's pretty damn chilling.

That is actually a relatively „soft“ outcome given the circumstances. It would mean the infection can be limited to roughly 10% of the population until a viable vaccine or viable anti virals are found. 

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22 hours ago, davos said:



So, at least around here, people are taking this pretty seriously.   Its not enough, though.  With so many people still having to work, its going to continue spreading.  Hopefully it will flatten the curve enough, but I doubt it.  As far as I can find out, the hospitals have not yet been overwhelmed.  But that could change quickly.  I fear what is going to happen in Milwaukee, with its higher population density and large areas of deep poverty.  

 

Hard to say exactly what it's like in Milwaukee right now.  I'm just outside of it (though Milwaukee city lines are screwy that sometimes if you look our place up on a map, it's listed as Milwaukee and not Tosa...so weird).

I'm seeing lots of people walking dogs, biking, etc. around here, bit in the city itself?  My corner of that is just the Marquette area, and I've not been there a lot in the last week or so.  Parents have been moving their students out of dorms, but that's been quick and efficient.  

We'll see what next week is like though, as we've got just enough people living on campus that we're still "essential" in that we have to feed them.  But we're only using salaried managers to do that coverage.  They've allowed work from home, but that's a little tricky when you work in food service...but what I've seen of the campus itself and adjoining area has been very quiet...

 

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On 3/28/2020 at 6:20 AM, Tywin et al. said:

I'm assuming this requires me to have actually read the book?

If it makes you feel better, it's in the stack of like 15 I've got on my desk or bedside table. 

In BNW soma is like the universal drug that everyone's taking to stay placated.  It's a bit unclear from my recollection whether Huxley meant it to be an exact stand-in for the pharmaceutical we know as soma today.  My hunch is kind of not really.  

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6 minutes ago, Triskele said:

In BNW soma is like the universal drug that everyone's taking to stay placated.  It's a bit unclear from my recollection whether Huxley meant it to be an exact stand-in for the pharmaceutical we know as soma today.  My hunch is kind of not really.  

It's almost certainly based on the eponymous drink of the gods in the Vedas. This is basically the same idea as nectar and ambrosia in Greek mythology, but he wanted to be less obvious about it.

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32 minutes ago, Triskele said:

In BNW soma is like the universal drug that everyone's taking to stay placated.  It's a bit unclear from my recollection whether Huxley meant it to be an exact stand-in for the pharmaceutical we know as soma today.  My hunch is kind of not really.  

 

22 minutes ago, Altherion said:

It's almost certainly based on the eponymous drink of the gods in the Vedas. This is basically the same idea as nectar and ambrosia in Greek mythology, but he wanted to be less obvious about it.

It would appear that an ape should use his hands....wiser......

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CNN just did a news report out of Spain. One doctor who likes to snorkel thought his snorkelling mask could be a substitute for the official masks and it actually looks pretty good. They detach the breathing tube on top and use a modified filter used in ventilators to replace it. The hospital has 3D printers that make the filters, and they last for 5 days before they need replacing.

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On 3/28/2020 at 6:10 PM, Rippounet said:

I didn't really have any fever (just one bad night of shivers, which was one of the very first symptoms). Coughing otoh... yeah I did have coughing fits some days, but really nothing major, and not continuously through the two-ish weeks that the whole thing lasted.

From what I understand (and from what doctors told me), symptoms vary widely from one individual to another. The one constant seems to be respiratory trouble. Though the last doctor I saw yesterday did tell me my case was very typical of Covid-19. To be specific:
1) A bad day/night of shivers (and/or fever) signaling initial contamination.
2) Sore throat (and a blocked or runny nose) (around +2/+3 days). Also, general fatigue.
3) Respiratory troubles (with aching/burning/tickling sensations in the lungs) starting around +3/+4 days and lasting for about a week.
4) A distinct improvement (around +10days).
5) A last bad couple of days (with some wheezing in my case) before being in the clear (at around +14/+15 days).

I have no idea why there is an improvement around +10 days. I'd read about it but it still surprised me when the symptoms came back with a vengeance at the end. Anyway, point is you don't get all the symptoms all the time, you don't necessarily get fever, and even the coughing isn't necessarily bad. Also, bear in mind that I do smoke a bit, which goes a long way to explain why I felt the entire thing.
My GF who doesn't smoke coughed even less than I did and didn't feel anything more than tingling sensations in her lungs, unpleasant but not painful. In her case it was close to... a cold. Though she lost much of her appetite and even experienced a brief loss of both taste and smell at some point.
Honestly, if not for the media attention around the virus we would have both assumed we'd had some weird cold or flu. The reason why we are considered to have had Covid-19 (authorities noted down our household as "contaminated" at some point) is because we are both teachers in Paris and that the odds of us experiencing those symptoms at this specific time because of something else are infinitesimal.

Thanks for your account and glad you both are fine! Viruses had been bad this season. I had for new year some cough fits that lasted two days and were gone and then a bad flu mid February but it didn't feel like anything you describe.

May I ask you which home management were you recommended during the disease? Like drink lot of liquids and stay warm? Something else that may help to avoid major problems? Some people are given inhalators, I read.

Since I think at some point I'm going to get I'd like to be prepared but it's hard to find that information. For the moment I taking a lot of Vitamin C an D together with some echinacea pills. Trying to eat healthy but it's harder with sparse shopping visits.

 

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6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

CNN just did a news report out of Spain. One doctor who likes to snorkel thought his snorkelling mask could be a substitute for the official masks and it actually looks pretty good. They detach the breathing tube on top and use a modified filter used in ventilators to replace it. The hospital has 3D printers that make the filters, and they last for 5 days before they need replacing. 

Somewhere they want to use the positive pressure anti-snoring masks as substitute too for relatively milder cases

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1 minute ago, rotting sea cow said:

Somewhere they want to use the positive pressure anti-snoring masks as substitute too for relatively milder cases

The doctors said Cpap masks were on the list but the snorkelling masks really cover the face well.

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Amid the devastating absolute numbers, it's worth noting that the rates of growth in cases and deaths are starting to slow almost across the board.

The Financial Times ran some good charts on this today. South Korea is clearly the star pupil so far: nearly five weeks since the 10th death and they have already managed to get their fatalities growth rate to well below 10%/day. Italy is now at around 10%, but peaked at around 40% (S Korea never went above 20%). 

The big question now is around further waves and the effects of relaxing lockdowns. 

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2 hours ago, Arakan said:

That is actually a relatively „soft“ outcome given the circumstances. It would mean the infection can be limited to roughly 10% of the population until a viable vaccine or viable anti virals are found. 

1% of 150,000,000 is still 1,500,000, and that's how many people will potentially die in the U.S. 

 

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Posted (edited)

We’re still at less than a thousand in SC.  Columbia and Charleston are going for “Shelter in Place” orders.  They’re are just over 100 for each city metro.

Greenville, where I live, has 57 cases.

Grocery stores are filling back up.  I’m a little embarrassed by how happy it made me to walk into a largely filled grocery store.  I hope it means the supply chains are catching up and the panic buying is slowing.

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison

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5 hours ago, Mudguard said:

You shouldn't be able to detect viral RNA after all the dead virus has been cleared by the body.  I think this can take up to a week or two, but I'm not sure.

Apparently a SARS-Cov study from 2004 found some people were testing positive on PCR tests, but not viral cultures, up to 2 months(!) after the infection. But this may be to slow disposal of stuff through the intestine, as rectal swabs were mentioned. Not sure what sort of tests are being done after people are declared well, or even to declare people well.

Also, there's a preprint paper discussing the mRNA vaccine that is being trialled as a phase 2 study in the U.S., and concerns that it will actually exacerbate the illness under certain circumstances because of the way it binds to the protein it targets; an alternative protein is suggested as potentially being safer (but so far as I can find no one has developed an mRNA vaccine focusing on that). This was a vaccine that was being fast-tracked, so ... we'll see what happens.

 

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23 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Amid the devastating absolute numbers, it's worth noting that the rates of growth in cases and deaths are starting to slow almost across the board.

The Financial Times ran some good charts on this today. South Korea is clearly the star pupil so far: nearly five weeks since the 10th death and they have already managed to get their fatalities growth rate to well below 10%/day. Italy is now at around 10%, but peaked at around 40% (S Korea never went above 20%). 

The big question now is around further waves and the effects of relaxing lockdowns. 

It's been a daily update for at least 2 weeks now, always worth linking again:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

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It's interesting that Sweden claims to be approaching the pandemic in a more sensible manner by not enforcing public movement restrictions. But beware of any claims that this is an effective means for control. Sweden has a higher per capita infection rate than the UK and close to the same infection rate as the USA. It has close to the same number of confirmed cases as Australia but half the population. It has double the population of New Zealand but 7x the number of cases.

I would conclude that Sweden's approach is not better at controlling the pandemic than anyone else's, but might be better at maintaining the economy and keeping people happy (at least until they get the disease). Depending how the New Zealand response pans out it might prove to be considerably worse than some responses. It's certainly not been as effective as China's, if you believe China's almost down to zero new daily cases. According to official numbers China is only about 7000 people away from eradicating the disease within its borders. That would be very impressive if true.

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