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Tywin Manderly

Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

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8 hours ago, Ran said:

Denmark went full lock down more than two weeks ago, and the effect of the lockdown has so far been nil compared to Sweden's more modest changes when comparing deaths per capita. Norway has done better on that score, but is smaller and even less population dense than Sweden (about comparable with New Zealand, in fact, although Oslo is far more dense than Auckland, and Stockholm even more dense than that).

Worth noting that those pesky Danes live in a tiny country that you can walk around in a day.

 

 

 

Yeah, yeah, joke and all, but it is fascinating how small the coutry is, and what that does to perspective. My sister is married in Århus. Now, having lived in Norway - and Ethiopia - she, like us, thinks that an hour's drive anywhere is more or less walking distance. To a Dane, an hour's drive is faaaaaar (I submit my brother-in-law as an example).

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7 hours ago, Makk said:

The economic hit for NZ is going to be nasty though and the taxpayer is going to be paying this off for a long time. At least the starting point was relatively healthy. I'm mainly concerned about what we do after the lock down. Are we going to close off the borders until a vaccine is developed? The self isolating methods we have imposed on overseas travelers have proven to be utterly inadequate and I'm mainly concerned we will be repeating this lock down in another few months.    

Oh, the economic hit to everyone will be brutal, but honestly, the New Zealand Government's (economic) handling of this has been very good.

New Zealand also has the massive advantage that if things really break down, we have food. Or at least meat and dairy. It would not surprise me if the Government is dusting off old Muldoonist ideas about local production (rice in Northland, sugarbeets in South Otago? Sugar is completely imported...).

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Now I'm imagining skinny Peter Jackson in a bunker (made to resemble Bilbo's house of course) dressed like an -insert mental image of a doomsday preper- cultivating his precious supply of sugarcane.

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57 minutes ago, Tears of Lys said:

So I'm reading this list of how long C-19 germs live on different surfaces, like elevators buttons 2-3 days; wood 4 days; metal 5 days . . .

and I start to think about things not listed, like paper money or coins.  Unless you use charge cards for any purchases, anytime you pay in cash you handle money, right?

Makes you think.

:leaving:

 

Paying with cards or phones is strongly encouraged here in Austria anyways because it reduces contact between store employees and customers.  They even want to increase the amount you can pay with contactless cards without having to enter you pin code(it is 25 € now). Austria is still a pretty cash heavy country though. 

A plus for the Scandinavian countries I guess.

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Just now, Jace, Basilissa said:

Now I'm imagining skinny Peter Jackson in a bunker (made to resemble Bilbo's house of course) dressed like an -insert mental image of a doomsday preper- cultivating his precious supply of sugarcane.

I've occasionally pondered Jacinda ringing up the Cubans, and offering to swap milk powder for sugar and doctors.

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17 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Now I'm imagining skinny Peter Jackson in a bunker

I totally want to live in Peter Jackson's bunker forever.

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12 minutes ago, DMC said:

I totally want to live in Peter Jackson's bunker forever.

After The Hobbit he seems a bit morose for my taste.

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4 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

After The Hobbit he seems a bit morose for my taste.

Compartmentalize!!!

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9 hours ago, Cridefea said:

Yes probably  New Zeland is not comparable because of what you said in your previous post, but we need to be careful about any chart right now, probably is too early to understand what's better and what's worse based on those charts. See China and its number of deceased.

I can't speak for other countries, but here it was quite the opposite. I don't know what media said outside Italy, did they say otherwise?

I admit I don't have a full track of what every European country has said about its decisions. All I know for sure is that the health authorities of Denmark and Norway have indicated that some of the decisions made by their respective governments were made by the politicians and not by them. Even now the Norwegian health authorities wanted to start reopening schools and were again overriden by the political side of the government.

I do see that Foreign Policy magazine's reporting kind of strongly implies that Italy's problems are caused by a political failure rather than a governmental failure, per se. The New York Times, as well. I haven't read these in detail and don't know how well they match up to reporting in Italy.

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4 hours ago, Triskele said:

I hate being on Tom Cotton's side on anything, but are China's death figures reliable?  

Why always China? Fight your bias. 
Of course China tuned the figures but so do a lot of other countries. Italy, France, UK. In Italy‘s case it has already been proven with hard data excess death analysis. I don’t know where you are from, but 95% of all these discussions are coming either from the UK or the US. Why? 

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4 hours ago, Triskele said:

I hate being on Tom Cotton's side on anything, but are China's death figures reliable?  

The chances of the CCP being entirely truthful about anything, I would estimate at about 0%.

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1 minute ago, Scott_N said:

The chances of the CCP being entirely truthful about anything, I would estimate at about 0%.

Yeah.

Chinese natives are making calculations based on the reports of the crematoriums running 24/7 and have estimated around 45000 dead in Wuhan city. Taking into account a normal death rate if 15000 at the time, that's an excess of 30000 deaths. Maybe.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Ran said:

Yeah.

Chinese natives are making calculations based on the reports of the crematoriums running 24/7 and have estimated around 45000 dead in Wuhan city. Taking into account a normal death rate if 15000 at the time, that's an excess of 30000 deaths. Maybe.

 

 

Were the crematoriums put on hold during the duration of the quarantine?  If so, there would be a large backlog of dead to burn once they reopened.  Do you have any citations from a reputable cite that supports this hypothesis?  I found a Time article that states people have suspicions, but nothing conclusive.  According to the Time article, there were 56,000 cremations in the fourth quarter of 2019.  If the crematoriums were put on hold for around 2 to 3 months, 45000 dead appears in line to me.  Where is the 15000 number coming from?

Quote

There were 56,007 cremations in Wuhan in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to data from the city’s civil affairs agency. The number of cremations was 1,583 higher than those in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 2,231 higher than the fourth quarter of 2017.

The story still seems speculative to me, bordering on conspiracy theory, if the crematoriums were put on hold during the quarantine.

Edited by Mudguard

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14 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

May I ask you which home management were you recommended during the disease? Like drink lot of liquids and stay warm? 

Rest and stay hydrated. But the main advice was always to stay home.

For actual medication, paracetamol and vutamin c.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Ran said:

Yeah.

Chinese natives are making calculations based on the reports of the crematoriums running 24/7 and have estimated around 45000 dead in Wuhan city. Taking into account a normal death rate if 15000 at the time, that's an excess of 30000 deaths. Maybe.

 

 

MILAN (Reuters) - As the official death toll from Italy's coronavirus outbreak passes 2,500, a silent surge in fatalities in nursing homes, where dozens of patients a day are dying untested for the virus, suggests the real total may be higher.

Official data show that nearly 30,000 people have been confirmed as positive for the coronavirus in Italy, the highest number outside China where the virus first emerged. 

But strict testing rules mean only patients hospitalized with severe symptoms are normally being swab tested.

While no detailed data is available, officials, nurses and relatives say there has been a spike in nursing home deaths in the worst affected regions of northern Italy since the virus emerged, and they are not showing up in coronavirus statistics.

"There are significant numbers of people who have died but whose death hasn't been attributed to the coronavirus because they died at home or in a nursing home and so they weren't swabbed," said Giorgio Gori, mayor of the town of Bergamo.

Gori said there had been 164 deaths in his town in the first two weeks of March this year, of which 31 were attributed to the coronavirus. That compares with 56 deaths over the same period last year.

Even adding the 31 coronavirus deaths to that total would leave 77 additional deaths, an increase that suggests the virus may have caused significantly more deaths than officially recorded.

 

ETA: article from 18.03.2020 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2152V0

Edited by Arakan

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Posted (edited)

Undoubtedly some western governments are going to use China to deflect from their own failings, but that also doesn’t mean that we should jump on China’s side and not criticise their actions.

The ‘urn’ story is concerning though I’m waiting to see what comes out of it. That a number of whistleblowers were ignored or ‘disappeared’ is also pretty concerning. 
 

Trying to compare China to western governments doesn’t work. We don’t operate in the same way.

Edited by Heartofice

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Just now, Heartofice said:

Undoubtedly some western governments are going to use China to deflect from their own failings, but that also doesn’t mean that we should jump on China’s side and not criticise their actions.

The ‘urn’ story is concerning though I’m waiting to see what comes out of it. That a number of whistleblowers were ignored or ‘disappeared’ is pretty concerning. 
 

Trying to compare China to western governments doesn’t work. We don’t operate in the same way.

There are no „Western governments“. First, it is insulting to be put in the same category as DT USA. Second, it is factually wrong. 

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1 minute ago, Arakan said:

There are no „Western governments“. First, it is insulting to be put in the same category as DT USA. Second, it is factually wrong. 

Think you can fairly describe Europe and the US as ‘western’ in comparison to China

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Just now, Heartofice said:

Think you can fairly describe Europe and the US as ‘western’ in comparison to China

You can describe them however you want but factually it is simple untrue to put all „western governments“ into one category. We are speaking of C19 specifically, not politics in general. And even then, the term „western governments“ might have meant something 20 years ago. Nowadays it’s just hollow. 

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