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Tywin Manderly

Who Pays the Coronaman? - Covid #8

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4 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Is this still true?  Might depend on where one sets their cutoff for "vast majority.  But it sure seems like this was very much the claim in the early days but that as time has gone on it appears to be less heavily slanted towards the older than the early narrative suggested.

I've seen some recent suggestion that one of the pre-existing conditions that's a risk factor is, in addition to some of the oft-mentioned things like being immuno-suppressed or having bad lungs, is obesity.  If that's true would that not have potentially enormous implications for why some numbers could be looking worse post-China?  

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I am assuming that despite all of their economic growth that there's still much less obesity per capita in place Wuhan than in a place like NYC or London.  

It’s still very much true.  The older you are the fatality rate goes significantly higher.  Of course there are cases of younger people being killed just significantly lower.  It might seem higher because the media highlights the cases of those who are younger dying from the virus, but comparatively speaking it’s still much less likely.

Diabetes seems to be one of the preexisting conditions that also increase the fatality rate, which often goes hand to hand with obesity.

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48 minutes ago, Loge said:

There is one thing that makes me wonder about the UK figures. According to Worldometer, the ratio of deaths to total closed cases is above 90%. Can that really be true? Or does it indicate any peculiarity of the way the UK counts these cases?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

 

It’s quite high in a lot of places, it speaks more to the time it takes to discharge someone with the virus. Also, what few tests have been done on those not hospitalised, I’d be surprised if they’d followed up with another test to see if they’re clear. There’s no real incentive to do so when tests are limited, other than to make this graph look better.

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4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I also think that's on the high side, because some of the increases in the fatality numbers are due to the fact that certain regions are seeing their medical infrasctructure overwhelmed, and people who would ordinarily be able to be treated successfully are not receiving the care they ordinarily would under usual circumstances.

Those regions would include the US, if nothing was done to limit the spread; and where the medical infrastructure is overwhelmed, the death rate is going to be much higher than 0.66%. Since the US isn't completely ignoring the pandemic, the infection rate is going to be substantially lower than 100%, but it seems likely that it's still going to be bad enough to overwhelm the hospitals :(

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12 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

I want to know where people are getting those mysterious "wipes" that we are supposed to use to wipe things down.

If you can’t get wipes just do the old fashioned way of spitting on your hand and rubbing it in.:)

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13 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

I just checked worldometer, dear lord, what is going on in the US? They have over the double amount of infected as China.
And Italy and Spain... my god. If we ever get to travel again, my first trip will be to Italy to help to rebuild tourism with what little my trip can contribute :( 

Over here, we will probably hit 1000 by the weekend. Our partial lockdown resulted in more people being out on the streets because the order specified all the things that are allowed and now people feel justified. The bloody nail salon reopened(!). National news insists experts do see the flattening of the curve. I don’t know. In terms of closed cases, we have a 30% mortality rate. They always make it a priority to meticulously specify that the newly deceased was a very old person and/or had (often multiple) pre-existing, serve chronic conditions. 

Oh and if there wasn’t enough irony in this pandemic ordeal already, guess who sent us the first foreign fund? The American billionaire about whom we write our conspiracy theories. I hope a lot of people feel incredibly stupid right now. 

 

George Soros?

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3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

It’s still very much true.  The older you are the fatality rate goes significantly higher.  Of course there are cases of younger people being killed just significantly lower.  It might seem higher because the media highlights the cases of those who are younger dying from the virus, but comparatively speaking it’s still much less likely.

Yep. New study confirms it:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/new-coronavirus-study-reveals-increased-risks-from-middle-age

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Our government website says they will publish the age, sex and pre-existing condition of the deceased. I have a feeling that this action might make people even more daring and dismissive of the jeopardy the virus poses to everybody. 

And I’m also afraid that we will never be able to contain the virus like Hubei province or Shanghai or Hong Kong are said to have contained it. It’ll just spread out and we’ll be stuck with the situation till next year. 

Anyway, could somebody please explain to me how it is scientifically possible that a virus we eliminate through lockdowns returns in a next season? Or could it be a statistical matter, that there will always be one symptomless carrier? I have no medical or natural science background, and I have even forgotten most of my grammar school biology knowledge. 

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So that data is published now. Only 12 out of 16 fatal cases were people above 65. We’ll have to wait and see the media coverage. 

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19 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

How is it misleading when it literally states what the figure is? 

You have no evidence whatsoever that the real figure is 'significantly higher'. 

The ONS has published the first of its new weekly bulletin which will include all instances where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate and will include non-hospital deaths.

A total of 210 deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to and including 20 March (and which were registered up to 25 March) had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics. 

This compares with 170 coronavirus-related deaths reported by NHS England and Public Health Wales up to and including March 20.

Source: The Guardian. You are welcome. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, DaveSumm said:

It’s quite high in a lot of places, it speaks more to the time it takes to discharge someone with the virus. Also, what few tests have been done on those not hospitalised, I’d be surprised if they’d followed up with another test to see if they’re clear. There’s no real incentive to do so when tests are limited, other than to make this graph look better.

Systematic mass testing is recommended by virtually every expert in the field. Early detection helps breaking up infection chains, especially when you catch the „healthy“ ones with only mild symptoms. This helps to avoid the spread to the more vulnerable people. Exactly what South Korea did, exactly what Germany is doing right now. The reason why the UK tests so few is very simple: years upon years of underfinancing the health care and medical sector has led to the UK lacking laboratory and staff capacity. Be honest. Which party has been in charge the last 10 years? 

The chickens come home to roost and people die. Sponsored by the Brexit liars. 
 

If the UK runs out of ventilator capacity even though they have been asked by the EU to participate in a common buying scheme (earliest January 31st), then very tough questions have to be asked. 

Edited by Arakan

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1 minute ago, ljkeane said:

Again, you really come across as having an axe to grind. Rein it in a bit.

It’s about honesty and integrity. In my world view lying is not ok. Especially when officials lie to cover up incompetence which leads to people dying. The same officials who will blame god and the world for their own incompetence. Honesty is the most valuable of all human characteristics. But allright. 

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19 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

It works with my Pin but even after doing that the contactless doesn't work. It only started happening last week.

 

I believe tighter security measures were introduced last year sometime where you now need to put your PIN in after so many contactless transactions. I think six maybe? Came across this info when trying to find out the issue with my card

I’m not sure on the amount but yes 6 or 10 seems about right to me, hope you get the issues with yours resolved :).

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1 minute ago, Arakan said:

It’s about honesty and integrity. In my world view lying is not ok. Especially when officials lie to cover up incompetence which leads to people dying. The same officials who will blame god and the world for their own incompetence.

Is it?

Lets take your bugbear about UK public health officials reporting deaths after hospitilisation. Yeah, you've found a report about deaths mentioning Covid 19 on death certificates. But death certificates don't require the doctor to know the cause of death, only to make a reasonable assumption. So, of course, the absolute number of deaths probably is higher but deaths in hospital is a far more reliable and accurate number and when we're looking at trends it's far more responsible to report that. Something that's been clearly and openly done but you've leapt onto as some sort of gotcha moment.

So, yes, you come across as having a big axe to grind. Ok you don't like the current UK government, neither do I, but the constant harping is honestly just making me scan past your posts because they're striking me as so biased.

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38 minutes ago, Arakan said:

The ONS has published the first of its new weekly bulletin which will include all instances where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate and will include non-hospital deaths.

A total of 210 deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to and including 20 March (and which were registered up to 25 March) had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics. 

This compares with 170 coronavirus-related deaths reported by NHS England and Public Health Wales up to and including March 20.

Source: The Guardian. You are welcome. 

So not significantly higher then. 

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5 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

Is it?

Lets take your bugbear about UK public health officials reporting deaths after hospitilisation. Yeah, you've found a report about deaths mentioning Covid 19 on death certificates. But death certificates don't require the doctor to know the cause of death, only to make a reasonable assumption. So, of course, the absolute number of deaths probably is higher but deaths in hospital is a far more reliable and accurate number and when we're looking at trends it's far more responsible to report that. Something that's been clearly and openly done but you've leapt onto as some sort of gotcha moment.

So, yes, you come across as having a big axe to grind. Ok you don't like the current UK government, neither do I, but the constant harping is honestly just making me scan past your posts because they're striking me as so biased.

Let me ask you a question: how can we accuse the likes of China of cover ups when similar „tricks“ are used by the accusers? It was, amongst others, due to the pressure by news outlets with integrity, like the Guardian, that those figures are getting published now. Think about it for a second. Furthermore, your attempt to discredit the validity of these figures is incorrect. Those cases will likely ramp up. Happens everywhere. Italy, Spain, Germany, UK. Today you are ok, tomorrow you are dead. Be it in a nursing home or at home. If you have preconditions this virus is a frightening killer. It can go so unbelievable fast. It is important that the true scale of all of this is comprehended. Politicians are the same everywhere, we live in the age of career politicians, be it Europe, USA, China. The good thing is, in Europe politicians can be hold accountable. 

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