Corona Horse, Corona Rider - Covid #9

[Fragile Bird]

A reference to the Spanish Flu seems appropriate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale_Horse,_Pale_Rider

[sologdin]

Quote

1650s, "a crown," from Latin corona "a crown, a garland," in ancient Rome especially "a crown or garland bestowed for distinguished military service," from suffixed form of PIE root *sker- (2) "to turn, bend."

is it this horse?

[DireWolfSpirit]

Cuomo giving another of his Corona briefings currently. He's saying NY's apex likely at least 14-30 days out and then you still need to traverse the decline of that apex. Point being, present conditions are going to be with us for a minimum of the next few months.

[JoannaL]

@Arakan "You were raised in the sheltered, socialist-inspired welfare system of (West)Germany. You would be shocked how the outside world looks like."

My last answer to you because we are drifting off topic:

I was raised in the free democratic west. I could always choose which party I want to elect and how I want to live. I value this. I was also raised in a country with a good social system. I value this as well. I lived two years in southern California and know the Americans to be kind and caring people who have a really bad educational and health system. Still they seemed not unhappy, at least not as unhappy as the east Germans.

You do not have to destroy democracy (parlamentry democracy as it exists in western systems) to have a social and caring state. Socialism always leads into dictatorship.

I do think that the capability to react adequately to the Corona crisis is not dependent on the political system of the country, more on the ability of the leader. this is still my opinion, and as that we should stop to discuss political systems here.

 

[Fragile Bird]

35 minutes ago, sologdin said:

is it this horse?

Covid-19 Horse sounded too awkward.

Coronavirus Horse, too long.

[Fragile Bird]

Apparently there was a woman in Florida who was very vocal about blocking the Holland America Zaandam, the cruise ship where four people have already died, from being allowed into port in Florida.

Then her mother called her and told her her aunt and uncle are on the ship. They have an interior room. He's dead, she's in there with him.

[sologdin]

Socialism always leads into dictatorship.

silly.

[Jace, Extat]

3 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Apparently there was a woman in Florida who was very vocal about blocking the Holland America Zaandam, the cruise ship where four people have already died, from being allowed into port in Florida.

Then her mother called her and told her her aunt and uncle are on the ship. They have an interior room. He's dead, she's in there with him.

Uh... fucking gross. Dump that shit overboard or put it in a freezer.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

37 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Cuomo giving another of his Corona briefings currently. He's saying NY's apex likely at least 14-30 days out and then you still need to traverse the decline of that apex. Point being, present conditions are going to be with us for a minimum of the next few months.

Just came out that his brother has the virus.

[Arakan]

41 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

@Arakan "You were raised in the sheltered, socialist-inspired welfare system of (West)Germany. You would be shocked how the outside world looks like."

My last answer to you because we are drifting off topic:

I was raised in the free democratic west. I could always choose which party I want to elect and how I want to live. I value this. I was also raised in a country with a good social system. I value this as well. I lived two years in southern California and know the Americans to be kind and caring people who have a really bad educational and health system. Still they seemed not unhappy, at least not as unhappy as the east Germans.

You do not have to destroy democracy (parlamentry democracy as it exists in western systems) to have a social and caring state. Socialism always leads into dictatorship.

I do think that the capability to react adequately to the Corona crisis is not dependent on the political system of the country, more on the ability of the leader. this is still my opinion, and as that we should stop to discuss political systems here.

 

Germany 2020 is 50% inspired by socialism. Our best parts . 1990 we were at 60%. All things considered. Germany 1871 was 0%. Read more about our history. Germany 1990 would at least have been a very erotic dream of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels. Strong workers unions who negotiate their wages with corporations, on equal footing. Welfare state. Social responsible corporations (for the most part). Basic services like electricity, public transportation, telecommunications in public hands, not oriented at profit maximization. Long-term strategic economic thinking in corporations instead of quarterly shareholder value thinking. Etc pp. 
Karl Marx would have been proud and said „so far so good my fellow Germans“. Read more about our history. EVERYTHING you take for granted was paid by with the blood of social democrats (aka socialists until rebranding in Godesberg 1959) and our more radical brothers and sisters. 

[sologdin]

very erotic dream of Karl Marx

an oneiromancy rooted in macrobius and the carmina priapeia?

[Arakan]

5 minutes ago, sologdin said:

very erotic dream of Karl Marx

an oneiromancy rooted in macrobius and the carmina priapeia?

I always took Karl more of a „Greek“ guy but hey maybe :)). 

[Mudguard]

After Ran mentioned in the last thread that Sweden was trying a very different approach, they are the last country in Europe to resist a lockdown, I've been following Sweden's progress.  I had no idea that they were not aggressively testing.  They've only tested 36,000 people, although granted, Sweden has a population of 10 million.  The numbers of cases are doubling roughly every 7 days, but the numbers of deaths have been doubling about every 3 days.  I wonder whether the difference between the two rates is a result of the low rate of testing. 

They currently have 4400 cases, and in a week it'll likely be 8000, and in two weeks 16,000.  I think they better reconsider their strategy, and soon.  Because the effects of implementing a new mitigation strategy generally takes 2 to 3 weeks to see an effect, each week of delay right now could mean tens of thousands of cases that could have been avoided.

There was petition signed by 2000 doctors, scientists, and professors:

Quote

Panic, though, is exactly what many within Sweden’s scientific and medical community are starting to feel. A petition signed by more than 2,000 doctors, scientists, and professors last week – including the chairman of the Nobel Foundation, Prof Carl-Henrik Heldin – called on the government to introduce more stringent containment measures. “We’re not testing enough, we’re not tracking, we’re not isolating enough – we have let the virus loose,” said Prof Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, a virus immunology researcher at the Karolinska Institute. “They are leading us to catastrophe.”

 

[Fragile Bird]

The province of Quebec is trying to imitate NY state. There are 8,467 cases in Canada and more than 4,000 are in the province.

[Paxter]

2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The province of Quebec is trying to imitate NY state. There are 8,467 cases in Canada and more than 4,000 are in the province.

I'm guessing Quebec is at a unique disadvantage with inbound citizens/residents returning from both Europe and the US. The rest of the country is probably mainly dealing with US returnees only.

Canada overall coping well though, with less fatalities across the entire country than Georgia or Louisiana on their own. 

[Mudguard]

Apparently, the Newsweek and Times story about the 42000 urns both incorrectly stated that there were 56,000 deaths in the fourth quarter of 2019, when actually the 56,000 number was an annual number.  The Newsweek story has posted the following updates to their story:

Quote

Update: The fourth quarter number of cremations in Wuhan reported by Chinese authorities represents a total annual figure for the year, rather than between October, November and December. This article has been updated to clarify that the number of cremations is an annual figure. While this remains suggestive of an increase in death rate, it is not conclusive.

Note: For additional clarity, urns are not used exclusively for coronavirus-related deaths. Deaths unrelated to COVID-19 could have also increased due to the heath care system operating overcapacity during this period.

This changes my original analysis a lot, if in fact all 42,000 urns are for Wuhan.  There would be an excess of over 20,000 deaths for this period.  As the update mentions, some of this may be due to deaths from other causes, but which likely could have been avoided if the hospitals weren't overburdened.  You have to wonder whether similar things are happening in Italy, Spain, Iran, and now in NYC.                                                                         

[Fragile Bird]

2 minutes ago, Paxter said:

I'm guessing Quebec is at a unique disadvantage with inbound citizens/residents returning from both Europe and the US. The rest of the country is probably mainly dealing with US returnees only.

Canada overall coping well though, with less fatalities across the entire country than Georgia or Louisiana on their own. 

Almost a million people returned to Canada in the last 3 weeks, I suspect they are spread out across the country. 

Their first big jump happened after they widened the initial testing parameters, people returning from China or Iran or in contact with someone with Covid-19. Other provinces were more flexible (as the federal government said they could be) earlier. Quebecois do like wintering in Florida or France, so they could be sources. But I suspect one of the largest factors is that NYC is just a hop, skip and a jump due south and vice versa.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, JoannaL said:

@Arakan "You were raised in the sheltered, socialist-inspired welfare system of (West)Germany. You would be shocked how the outside world looks like."

My last answer to you because we are drifting off topic:

I was raised in the free democratic west. I could always choose which party I want to elect and how I want to live. I value this. I was also raised in a country with a good social system. I value this as well. I lived two years in southern California and know the Americans to be kind and caring people who have a really bad educational and health system. Still they seemed not unhappy, at least not as unhappy as the east Germans.

You do not have to destroy democracy (parlamentry democracy as it exists in western systems) to have a social and caring state. Socialism always leads into dictatorship.

I do think that the capability to react adequately to the Corona crisis is not dependent on the political system of the country, more on the ability of the leader. this is still my opinion, and as that we should stop to discuss political systems here.

 

I was unaware that most of Europe has dictatorial governments...

[Kalbear]

29 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I was unaware that most of Europe has dictatorial governments...

As far as I can tell democracy also always leads to dictatorship. Eventually. 

[Ran]

Interesting paper out of Harvard modelling different types of social distancing strategies (PDF link) which finds long periods of very high R>0 reduction (60% effectiveness) merely punts the peak down to later in the year unless you resume some level of social distancing at that time. Their model suggests reducing R>0 by 20-40% using more modest efforts (not full lock downs) leads to lower overall peaks.

I'm guessing this is the Swedish thinking, and the thinking that other Nordics are starting to consider (Finland apparently already reversed some of their emergency declarations from the other day, Denmark is talking about easing up after Easter, Norway has partially re-opened its borders).