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Fragile Bird

Corona Horse, Corona Rider - Covid #9

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Castellan said:

are you really quoting wikipedia?

how ignorant aye you?

Nope, just took the dictionary definition. No wiki needed.

Unless you meant the post I was rebutting by JoannaL? Where they quoted wiki? I suggest you read upthread.

Edited by Impmk2

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3 minutes ago, davos said:

Again, socialism and democracy are not opposites. they are not even on the same continuity.   the opposite of socialism is  capitalism.  the opposite of democracy is authoritarianism or totalitarianism, to simplify things somewhat.  you can have a capitalist dictatorship or a socialist democracy.  in fact, we have had a number of both.  to insist otherwise is to deny history, the modern world, and the dictionary.  

You are right you can have capitalist dictatorships. No disagrement here. But I do not know of a socialist democracy.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

You know who'd do even better in a pandemic.. a dictator. Looking for someone to shut stuff down.. get your dictators in. 

What exactly is your objection here?

The post you were responding to simply posits that a more decent socialist oriented government would do better than a strictly capitalist one.

If, you disagree please give an argument for why.

Oh a laughing emoji. Ok, I'll take that as a signal that you retroactively saw something socialist being praised as better capitalism and automatically lashed out.

Thank you for your clarity.

Edited by Varysblackfyre321
Saw reaction

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Remember how things were under control? We are now optimistically having a 'goal' of only 100k-240k deaths.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Remember how things were under control? We are now optimistically having a 'goal' of only 100k-240k deaths.

 

 

Now that's what I call moving the goalposts.  From that slide, Trump would call anything under 2,200,000 deaths a success, and anything under 240,000 deaths an incredible success that no one else could have come close to achieving and that he is responsible for saving millions of lives.

Edited by Mudguard

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 I want to know which countries out there are the ones with the lousy tests, with the 50% false negatives and positives.

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8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

 I want to know which countries out there are the ones with the lousy tests, with the 50% false negatives and positives.

What is the context for this?  Was this being used as justification by the CDC for developing it's own test?  If so, it's nonsense.  See this NPR article.

Quote

The abstract is in English, though the paper itself is in Chinese, and describes a test developed in China. That provenance in itself is notable, because the factoid about flawed tests has come up in response to questions about why the administration didn't ask to import tests the World Health Organization distributes, when it became evident the CDC was struggling to scale up its own test.

The WHO has relied heavily on a test produced in Germany – not China.

The figure 47% does indeed appear in the abstract of the Chinese paper, but it doesn't refer to the overall quality of this viral test. Instead, it refers to one particular slice of the population: people who have no symptoms of COVID-19 but have had close contact with those who had been diagnosed with the disease.

The abstract concludes that close contacts are often labeled as being infected when they apparently are not. The abstract makes no mention of the overall performance of the test.

 

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1 minute ago, Mudguard said:

What is the context for this?  Was this being used as justification by the CDC for developing it's own test?  If so, it's nonsense.  See this NPR article.

 

This is at least the 5th time I've heard Trump say the US has the best test, the greatest test in the world, unlike those other countries with the lousy tests that failed 50% of the time.

 

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15 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

This is at least the 5th time I've heard Trump say the US has the best test, the greatest test in the world, unlike those other countries with the lousy tests that failed 50% of the time.

 

I find it kinda funny given the FDA has given emergency approval for a number of other testing kits now. Looks like it isn't just the CDC ones being used at the moment anyway.

Been looking into this as we're trying to get our hands on a single testing kit for our research at the moment - just to validate our surveillance assay.

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50 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

That graph of Italy's daily new cases looked damn encouraging!

I still get depressed about the idea of intentionally not testing, though.

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2 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

I find it kinda funny given the FDA has given emergency approval for a number of other testing kits now. Looks like it isn't just the CDC ones being used at the moment anyway.

Been looking into this as we're trying to get our hands on a single testing kit for our research at the moment - just to validate our surveillance assay.

Most SARS-Cov-2 tests run in the US are now commercially developed tests designed to run on high throughput testing machines, like Roche's.

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Just now, Mudguard said:

Most SARS-Cov-2 tests run in the US are now commercially developed tests designed to run on high throughput testing machines, like Roche's.

Did you understand what was being said at the press conference? Did you watch it? The question was asked, we were told there would be 28 M tests sent out by the end of March and yet every state is saying they have no tests, where are the tests?

And I heard all this mumbo-jumbo that since there were so many labs involved now, testing wasn't being utilized, underutilized by an astonishing 500,000 tests a day, and states don't realize what's out there and available, and then Trump jumped in and said those were the old bad broken system tests. 

It was what sounded like a load of bs. All the states that say they have no tests actually have millions of tests they aren't using? That sounds like a helluva bloody problem.

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5 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Did you understand what was being said at the press conference? Did you watch it? The question was asked, we were told there would be 28 M tests sent out by the end of March and yet every state is saying they have no tests, where are the tests?

And I heard all this mumbo-jumbo that since there were so many labs involved now, testing wasn't being utilized, underutilized by an astonishing 500,000 tests a day, and states don't realize what's out there and available, and then Trump jumped in and said those were the old bad broken system tests. 

It was what sounded like a load of bs. All the states that say they have no tests actually have millions of tests they aren't using? That sounds like a helluva bloody problem.

I didn't watch the conference so that's why I was asking for context of the 50% false positive comment.  My comment to Impmk2 was just an acknowledgement that the CDC test isn't even being used much right now.  I can't comment on the specific things that were said regarding testing during today's conference, but if it's from Trump, you can safely assume that it's BS.

They (government and all the private companies) may have sent out 28 million test kits but that's not the number of tests that have been run and analyzed.  They've used this misleading stat since the beginning, when they were touting 1 million test kits being sent out around the country.  Even weeks later, we had only tested in the tens of thousands range.  One million test kits is pretty useless if you can only process say 1000 tests a day.

Maithanet has been posting updates on the number of tests that have been run per day in the US.  I think our current capacity is around 100k tests/day.  But turn around time can be up to 6 days, maybe more in some cases for all I know, even now.  So that means that the backlog of tests could be around 300k-500k tests waiting to be tested.  With the increasing number of cases in the US, it's very possible that the number of tests sent to the labs for analysis each day is greater than our daily testing capacity, which would mean that our backlog of tests is actually increasing.  If the number of tests sent in each day is increasing greater than the rate of increase in our testing capacity, our backlog will get worse and worse, meaning the number of reported cases each day is actually an under representation of the new cases from that day.  Our testing capacity will most likely not meet demand for at least one month, maybe more, depending on our ability to bend the curve.  There's just too many cases now.

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Curious exercise. There was a way to look at CFR rates by comparing the daily Closed Cases figure with the Total Cases figure 14 days earlier (a figure roughly timed as the estimate average incubation/course run time).

For the particular date you highlighted, 30 March, and the respective date 14 days earlier, is exactly the same figure - 1,543. Note, it doesn't explain the high fatality rate. There are presumptions/concessions that need to be considered before making any conclusions. It may only be one other way of tracking where a country is in their measures.   

UK Closed Cases (Recovered + Deaths) vs UK Total Cases 14 days earlier:
1,543 (30 Mar)     1,543 (16 Mar)    
1,924 (31 Mar)    1,950 (17 Mar)
TBC (01 Apr)    2,626 (18 Mar)

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In these trying times, my step-mom's meme says it best:
 

Quote

Commemorating not getting killed by a plague during a plague that you hope you're not getting killed by is probably as Jewish as you can get.

 

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

I didn't watch the conference so that's why I was asking for context of the 50% false positive comment.  My comment to Impmk2 was just an acknowledgement that the CDC test isn't even being used much right now.  I can't comment on the specific things that were said regarding testing during today's conference, but if it's from Trump, you can safely assume that it's BS.

They (government and all the private companies) may have sent out 28 million test kits but that's not the number of tests that have been run and analyzed.  They've used this misleading stat since the beginning, when they were touting 1 million test kits being sent out around the country.  Even weeks later, we had only tested in the tens of thousands range.  One million test kits is pretty useless if you can only process say 1000 tests a day.

Maithanet has been posting updates on the number of tests that have been run per day in the US.  I think our current capacity is around 100k tests/day.  But turn around time can be up to 6 days, maybe more in some cases for all I know, even now.  So that means that the backlog of tests could be around 300k-500k tests waiting to be tested.  With the increasing number of cases in the US, it's very possible that the number of tests sent to the labs for analysis each day is greater than our daily testing capacity, which would mean that our backlog of tests is actually increasing.  If the number of tests sent in each day is increasing greater than the rate of increase in our testing capacity, our backlog will get worse and worse, meaning the number of reported cases each day is actually an under representation of the new cases from that day.  Our testing capacity will most likely not meet demand for at least one month, maybe more, depending on our ability to bend the curve.  There's just too many cases now.

Indeed. It's been 2 weeks here in Spain (especially in the Community of Madrid and Catalonia where there are more cases) that they only test people who go to hospital, and I heard that not even all of them. Eventually, all thr countries, will face -and are facing- thr same issue.

Now the real problems are having enough ventilators and beds and equipment. It is at the point of saturation or it has rrached it.

People dying in nursing homes for elders have not been counted as well -so far. (Catalonia at least).

So I also read that the cases are actually at least 10/20+ times more.

Edited by Meera of Tarth

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That's the US is openly discussing 200,000 deaths is unfathomable. What are other countries saying about their death rates...?  

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