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The Merling King

Should Renly and the Tyrells have stayed neutral until after the Battle of Backwater

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Posted (edited)

Renly was crowned and on the march before Stannis even made his claim, why would he wait for Stannis to fight Joffrey?

Edited by Trigger Warning

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19 minutes ago, The Merling King said:

What if Renly and the Tyrells had stayed neutral until after Blackwater in the hope that either Joffrey or Stannis dies giving Renly a more legitimate claim and clearer path to the iron throne?

If Renly stayed neutral there would be no battle of blackwater. Stannis had less than 5k men, he knew that was not enough.

Stannis only hope was winning some of Renly's host after he died. If Renly never rebelled, Stannis can't unless he hopes to convince Robb to join forces, which given his political skills, seems an unlikely scenario.

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16 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

Renly was crowned and on the march before Stannis even made his claim, why would he wait for Stannis to fight Joffrey?

Renly and his army were obviously not in a rush to starve out Kings Landing. I am simply asking if it would make more sense given Renly’s weak claim to let Stannis and the Lannister’s draw first blood. If Renly or Mace decided to wait, perhaps on Oleana’s advice, he could potentially avoid the shadow baby and have a more legitimate claim. If Renly stayed in Highgarden and told the Stormlords to refuse his brother would Stannis still besiege Stormsend or retreat to Dragonstone?

7 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

If Renly stayed neutral there would be no battle of blackwater. Stannis had less than 5k men, he knew that was not enough.

 Stannis only hope was winning some of Renly's host after he died. If Renly never rebelled, Stannis can't unless he hopes to convince Robb to join forces, which given his political skills, seems an unlikely scenario.

What if Melisandre uses the shadow baby to assassinate Joffrey? Stannis would have to make a move eventually. I believe Renly jumped the gun because of his own hubris and the Tyrells ambitions 

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I doubt Renly was thinking of Stannis very much at all before he besieged Storm's End it doesn't make much sense for him to change his plans when Stannis only commands 5,000 or so men. Renly's strategy is perfectly reasonable, he didn't know Stannis has a shadow assassin. 

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Posted (edited)

If Renly doesn't crow himself, couldn't the Stormlords sidded with Stannis? After all when Renly died they choose Stannis over Joffrey.

He made me a poor envoy in any case. The storm lords will not rise for me. It seems they do not like me, and the justice of my cause means nothing to them. The cravenly ones will sit behind their walls waiting to see how the wind rises and who is likely to triumph. The bold ones have already declared for Renly. For Renly!”

Edited by Arthur Peres

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1 minute ago, Arthur Peres said:

If Renly doesn't crow himself, couldn't the Stormlords sidded with Stannis? After all when Renly died they choose Stannis over Joffrey, when Renly died.

He made me a poor envoy in any case. The storm lords will not rise for me. It seems they do not like me, and the justice of my cause means nothing to them. The cravenly ones will sit behind their walls waiting to see how the wind rises and who is likely to triumph. The bold ones have already declared for Renly. For Renly!”

It'd probably still depend on what Renly wants them to do, it's chaos in the wake of Renly's death and most of them go over to the Lannisters after the Blackwater anyway. I don't think we can say if they'd support Stannis or not in a situation where they have time to think about it. 

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30 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

If Renly doesn't crow himself, couldn't the Stormlords sidded with Stannis? After all when Renly died they choose Stannis over Joffrey.

He made me a poor envoy in any case. The storm lords will not rise for me. It seems they do not like me, and the justice of my cause means nothing to them. The cravenly ones will sit behind their walls waiting to see how the wind rises and who is likely to triumph. The bold ones have already declared for Renly. For Renly!”

If Renly does not want them to do so, it's unlikely that many of them are moving. Renly is their liege not Stannis, they are loyal to Renly not to Stannis. So Stannis would probably end up doing the exact same.

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I don't think there are enough troops in the Stormlands and Reach to go around.  If Stannis somehow defeats Joffrey, he will be in command of KL, and Renly will have no troops and no claim.  If Stannis loses, Renly is in the same situation as the books, but with less troops.

Given his support, his actions in the book are reasonable.  He just wasn't counting on shadow babies.

 

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10 hours ago, The Merling King said:

What if Renly and the Tyrells had stayed neutral until after Blackwater in the hope that either Joffrey or Stannis dies giving Renly a more legitimate claim and clearer path to the iron throne?

Then Renly is king when Stannis dies, simple as that. 

 

There are multiple plot devices introduced to allow the Lannisters to be in a position to win, Otherwise, they are outnumbered and outmatched. 

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1 hour ago, dsjj251 said:

Then Renly is king when Stannis dies, simple as that. 

 

There are multiple plot devices introduced to allow the Lannisters to be in a position to win, Otherwise, they are outnumbered and outmatched. 

There are multiple plot devices introduced to allow the Lannisters to be in a position to lose, Otherwise, they are outnumbered and outmatched.

It is a book. It's mostly plot device.

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12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

If Renly never rebelled, Stannis can't unless he hopes to convince Robb to join forces, which given his political skills, seems an unlikely scenario.

Robbs rebellion was in part because of all the different claimants to the IT. If Renly was never king then the only option would be Stannis or Lannister. I doubt Robb would have rebelled if Renly never did.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

Given his support, his actions in the book are reasonable. 

Renlys actions? Crowns himself but doesntt fight any enemy, instead watches a show where his army gets beaten up by a woman?

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24 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Renlys actions? Crowns himself but doesntt fight any enemy, instead watches a show where his army gets beaten up by a woman?

Why would he rush when Robb is doing such a fine job. I suppose that his first idea would've been rush to KL. But after Robb started showing signs  of becoming a mayor player, well he and the Lannisters would bleed each  other and he would just smash the winner.

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9 minutes ago, frenin said:

Why would he rush when Robb is doing such a fine job. I suppose that his first idea would've been rush to KL. But after Robb started showing signs  of becoming a mayor player, well he and the Lannisters would bleed each  other and he would just smash the winner.

Or hed lose his morale by not moving, and Robb or Lannister would be on the top of their game

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7 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Or hed lose his morale by not moving, and Robb or Lannister would be on the top of their game

He was quite great at keeping the morale high. He was moving regardless just at his own pace. Robb or Lannister would in a pretty bad shape by the time Renly and them clashed. 

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Robbs rebellion was in part because of all the different claimants to the IT.

No, Robb rebelled before any other claimant declared themselves King. He called his banners and fought the crown's representatives before he heard about Renly declaring himself King. Stannis declares after Robb declared himself King.

So he rebelled when there was only one claimant and became King when there were two.

Quote

If Renly was never king then the only option would be Stannis or Lannister. 

Stannis had not declared at the point when Robb rebelled, or month(s) later when he crowned himself.

Quote

I doubt Robb would have rebelled if Renly never did.

So if it was just Joffrey Robb would sue for peace with the Crown?

Do you understand what a rebellion is? He rebelled when his father was arrested. A rebel is a person who rises in opposition or armed resistance against an established government or leader.

Quote

Renlys actions? Crowns himself but doesntt fight any enemy,

And does not take any casualties while his enemies become weaker, both in force and food supplies.

Military strategy is not that complicated. Renly's actions were more than acceptable in his bid to become King.

Quote

 

instead watches a show where his army gets beaten up by a woman?

A melee? What is wrong with that? Keeps his troops occupied and motivated while he is waiting for his army to fully form. He was still waiting for more men, such as the 10k Mace was bringing from Highgarden.

Edited by Bernie Mac

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11 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Do you understand what a rebellion is? He rebelled when his father was arrested. A rebel is a person who rises in opposition or armed resistance against an established government or leader.

Your right. I misspoke. Not a rebellion but a revolution. Sorry. 

12 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

So if it was just Joffrey Robb would sue for peace with the Crown?

I doubt it. So, ok, if neither Baratheon existed idk what Robb would do, probably revolt.

17 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

And does not take any casualties while his enemies become weaker, both in force and food supplies.

They lose morale while staying put. Like what were they up to anyway, coming up with ways to gang bang Brienne? Warriors need war.

And Stark and Lannister are fine. Theres more boys at Oxcross and Wulls in the mountain. Wyman builds a navy while Tywin hires sellswords.

20 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Military strategy is not that complicated. Renly's actions were more than acceptable in his bid to become King.

In war you fight. Especially the wannabee usurpers 

Quote

My father sat where I sit now when Lord Eddard came to Sisterton. Our maester urged us to send Stark's head to Aerys, to prove our loyalty. It would have meant a rich reward. The Mad King was open-handed with them as pleased him. By then we knew that Jon Arryn had taken Gulltown, though. Robert was the first man to gain the wall, and slew Marq Grafton with his own hand. 'This Baratheon is fearless,' I said. 'He fights the way a king should fight.'

Fight and gain a kingdom, or dont and watch your enemies take it

24 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

A melee? What is wrong with that? Keeps his troops occupied and motivated while he is waiting for his army to fully form. He was still waiting for more men, such as the 10k Mace was bringing from Highgarden.

The melee only proves to keeps his men drunk and injured

30 minutes ago, frenin said:

He was quite great at keeping the morale high. He was moving regardless just at his own pace. Robb or Lannister would in a pretty bad shape by the time Renly and them clashed. 

As of adwd, they both have men fighting still

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

If Renly stayed neutral there would be no battle of blackwater. Stannis had less than 5k men, he knew that was not enough.

Stannis only hope was winning some of Renly's host after he died. If Renly never rebelled, Stannis can't unless he hopes to convince Robb to join forces, which given his political skills, seems an unlikely scenario.

If Renly stayed neutral Storm's End vassals would have followed Stannis. And if the don't because of Renly, Stannis still murders him to take them.

Also this would never happen because The Tyrells did NOT want Stannis on the Iron Throne and they would not risk let him take it. He hates them and he is married to a Florent, he is a big threat for them.

Edited by Dreadscythe95

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Reply was never neutral, he was in opposition to the Lannisters from the moment he fled the city, and in Rebellion against Joffrey after the ravens were sent out summoning the various lords to pay homage, which Renly didn't heed (I'm not faulting him for this, it would likely have been suicide).

If the question is 'if Renly hadn't crowned himself', well it is quite likely he would still have been a faction. I don't believe that Renly raised his great army after he crowned himself. Rather, I think he called upon his friends and bannermen as a preemptive defence against the Lannisters, and when he saw the size of the army he had raised, it got to his head and he thought all these forces came at my summons, that proves I am more worthy to be king than Joffrey.

If Renly had, instead of proclaiming himself king, proclaimed an intention to form a Great Council after defeating the Lannisters, Robb would likely have not become a king. Robb would have just told his lords they were allying with Renly and they would have obeyed - the open court he did hold was swayed by emotions in large part because Robb did not have a pre-chosen course of action ready to dictate.

Stannis I am not so sure about, he is certainly easily peeved and would not have been pleased by a promise of a Great Council rather than acknowledgment of himself as king. But it's not denying him fealty either, so I am not certain he would have judged Renly a traitor to be executed by assassination.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

 

They lose morale while staying put. Like what were they up to anyway, coming up with ways to gang bang Brienne? Warriors need war.

They also need to be fully formed. Renly had not yet done assembling his forces.

Do you think Robb was wrong on waiting for the Manderlys and Flints to join him at Moat Cailin or should he have charged South without them?

Do you think Jaime was right to charge off half cocked against forces near the Whispering Wood without alerting his sleeping army?

 

31 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

And Stark and Lannister are fine.

But they were not, they were both losing experienced soldiers.

31 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

 

Theres more boys at Oxcross and Wulls in the mountain.

eh? Green boys in Lannisport and old greybeards in the North are not the equiveleant of the troops both Tywin and Robb have already assembled.

And your argument does not make any sense. Those people exist in both scenario, Tywin and Robb are still losing men against each other and weakening each other in the process. Do you genuinely not understand that?

31 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

 

Wyman builds a navy while Tywin hires sellswords.

Both are possible in either scenario, the difference being that there are still less men in both Robb and Tywin's armies is Renly allows them to carry on figthing.

31 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

In war you fight.

No, you don't just fight. You strategize and pick the right battles and the right time to take action.

 

 

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