Should Renly and the Tyrells have stayed neutral until after the Battle of Backwater

[frenin]

29 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Also this would never happen because The Tyrells did NOT want Stannis on the Iron Throne and they would not risk let him take it. He hates them and he is married to a Florent, he is a big threat for them.

The Stannis and Tyrells beef is at this point a fantasy, the Tyrells don't want Stannis as King for the same reason everyone dislike him.

Stannis himself makes clear that be would've acted the same way the Tyrells did during the Robellion had he not been Robert's brother.

[Bernie Mac]

28 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

If Renly stayed neutral Storm's End vassals would have followed Stannis.

That remains to be seen. Many Stormlords did not pick Stannis even when Renly was killed.

They have reason to rebel for their popular liege lord Renly. They have less reason to rebel against Robert's children for the unpopular Stannis, especially when Renly is not in favor of it. They'd be choosing Stannis over both Renly and Robert's children. Stannis, in the books (not the fandom) has never had that kind of charisma or popularity.

If I leave Storm's End untaken in my rear, it will be said I was defeated here. And that I cannot permit. Men do not love me as they loved my brothers. They follow me because they fear me . . . and defeat is death to fear.

Killing Renly helped him gain some of the Stormlords who had already made enemies of the Crown by rebelling with Renly. Some, maybe most of those same lords may not rebel for Stannis and his 5k force.

28 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

 

And if the don't because of Renly, Stannis still murders him to take them.

How will they know that? His magical shadow baby is not well known and his 5k army is not particularly noteworthy.

28 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Also this would never happen because The Tyrells did NOT want Stannis on the Iron Throne and they would not risk let him take it. He hates them and he is married to a Florent, he is a big threat for them.

That is all true, but OP seems to be talking about the Stormlords. And while I do think Stannis gaining the Florents after Renly's death did sway others to join him, in this scenario he does not even have that.

[The Young Maester]

Keeping an army of that size stationary is not a good idea. Despite the reach being the fodder of Westeros. I still dont see an army of 90k maintaining its cohesion And feeding itself successfully. 90k is a very big number for an army thats in a medieval based world. Within weeks youd be suffering from camp fever or dysentery. Plus the Tyrells will be literally feeding an entire city. Both white harbour and gulltown are smaller in population than this army. How long will lords and knights stay stationary for that long. Despite Renlys charm, some will look across the riverlands and kings landing, and they would see the war they are missing. 

To be honest if you are going to wait for your enemies to batter themselves, you are better off disbanding the army and waiting till the right moment. But even that action is a risk as lords will see you as a weak king.

[Brandon Ice-Eyes]

No, they would have been viewed as weak.

[Wm Portnoy]

15 hours ago, The Merling King said:

What if Renly and the Tyrells had stayed neutral until after Blackwater in the hope that either Joffrey or Stannis dies giving Renly a more legitimate claim and clearer path to the iron throne?

Renly would still be alive if he had done that.  It might be good for him but it is better for him to die early as far as the common people are concerned.  The war would have gone on longer if he had continued to live.

[Hugorfonics]

19 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

They also need to be fully formed. Renly had not yet done assembling his forces.

They do not need to be fully formed. Conquering seven kingdoms with one army doesnt make sense. 

When Robert acted like a usurper worth serving in Gulltown Eddard had yet to assemble his force. Ya know, the one who took KL!

Fight now, reinforce later

22 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Do you think Robb was wrong on waiting for the Manderlys and Flints to join him at Moat Cailin or should he have charged South without them?

Idk, honestly good question. How long did he wait? Manderly supplied Robb with cavalry, right? He needed those.

Still, reinforcements coming is always good. So is splitting armies like Robb did anyway

27 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Do you think Jaime was right to charge off half cocked against forces near the Whispering Wood without alerting his sleeping army?

What? If you got em, use em. He had em, shoulda used em. He did not have Tywins men though. 

Should Tywin have given up the Green Fork to reinforce Jaime?

30 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

But they were not, they were both losing experienced soldiers.

eh? Green boys in Lannisport and old greybeards in the North are not the equiveleant of the troops both Tywin and Robb have already assembled.

And your argument does not make any sense. Those people exist in both scenario, Tywin and Robb are still losing men against each other and weakening each other in the process. Do you genuinely not understand that?

Both are possible in either scenario, the difference being that there are still less men in both Robb and Tywin's armies is Renly allows them to carry on figthing.

Stark and Lannister lost lots of men, no doubt. However the remnants of their armies are now forming up again and although they lost many experienced men they have become veterans of war. Not greenmen playing make believe war with melees and plots of rape on a highborn maiden comrade.

And these young and old men (mountain men arent old, the lords are like Buckets ,but no reason to think their soldiers are) are still something when being reinforced with veteran soldiers. 

35 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, you don't just fight. You strategize and pick the right battles and the right time to take action.

Then having Mace crown him was stupid. You wanna play it coy like Lysa or conniving like Doran, bet. You wanna be king, you put a target on your back and force your enemies moves. (Stannis' attack, which would be detrimental anyway you look at it, a kinslayer is bad p.r. And Robbs coronation)

You wanna strategize, bet. But when you send out a declaration of war I expect to see some war, like how Robert and Stannis did 

[McGuv19]

Stannis would never had had a chance to take KL without Renly’s men. He only has 5K, nkt enough to take the city. He would have sat on Dragonstone or something. Renly could have stayed back in the Reach and Stormlands and tried to ally with Dorne or something while the other kings fought each other, or he could have marched to KL and to try to end the war quickly. Both options have merits.

[dsjj251]

23 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

There are multiple plot devices introduced to allow the Lannisters to be in a position to lose, Otherwise, they are outnumbered and outmatched.

It is a book. It's mostly plot device.

Yes, it is a book ........................ But we are on a discussion forum about that book,

The very fact that you are here negates the argument you are trying to make.  

 

That being said, it is possible you didnt understand what I was saying. 

If Renly lives, you remove the plot device of a failed Baratheon-Tyrell alliance. The Lannisters stand alone against a Stark-Tully-Baratheon-Tyrell alliance.  the logical conclusion is that they crush the Lannisters. 

My post wasnt an attack on the book, or even its tropes, only that one giant device that swings power in the books would be gone. 

[Dreadscythe95]

On 4/5/2020 at 5:59 PM, Bernie Mac said:

That remains to be seen. Many Stormlords did not pick Stannis even when Renly was killed.

They have reason to rebel for their popular liege lord Renly. They have less reason to rebel against Robert's children for the unpopular Stannis, especially when Renly is not in favor of it. They'd be choosing Stannis over both Renly and Robert's children. Stannis, in the books (not the fandom) has never had that kind of charisma or popularity.

If I leave Storm's End untaken in my rear, it will be said I was defeated here. And that I cannot permit. Men do not love me as they loved my brothers. They follow me because they fear me . . . and defeat is death to fear.

Killing Renly helped him gain some of the Stormlords who had already made enemies of the Crown by rebelling with Renly. Some, maybe most of those same lords may not rebel for Stannis and his 5k force.

How will they know that? His magical shadow baby is not well known and his 5k army is not particularly noteworthy.

That is all true, but OP seems to be talking about the Stormlords. And while I do think Stannis gaining the Florents after Renly's death did sway others to join him, in this scenario he does not even have that.

Stannis was already married with Selyse from many years back. The Stannis-Tyrell hate starts from Robert's Rebelion.

The Storm Lords would be forced to fllow the Lord of Storms End and if Renly was between Stannis and the bannermen he would still use the shadow to murder Renly. Then he would be th elord of Storm's End and Dragonstone.

[Dreadscythe95]

On 4/5/2020 at 5:55 PM, frenin said:

The Stannis and Tyrells beef is at this point a fantasy, the Tyrells don't want Stannis as King for the same reason everyone dislike him.

Stannis himself makes clear that be would've acted the same way the Tyrells did during the Robellion had he not been Robert's brother.

That's not true. The Tyrells almost killed Stannis , his family and his men at the Siege of Storm's End and because they fought against Robert he gave Stannis a Florent as his wife. This puts the Florents at King's Court while The Tyrells are not which gives FLorent influnce and also it is a threat because it means that if Robert dies and Stannis becomes King The Florents sit on The Iron Throne. The Florents have many times claimed that Highgarden belongs to them and they rebelled against The Tyrells in the first chance as we saw. Still I don't know how you even think that it's fantasy but we already know that it is true. There is no way that if Stannis becomes King that The Tyrells will ever manage to have influence on The Iron Throne and that's ther best case scenario. What stops Stannis from giving Highgarden to one of his children or grandchildren, The Tyrells are not straight of the line of Garth Greenhand unlike the Florents.

[Trigger Warning]

30 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Stannis was already married with Selyse from many years back. The Stannis-Tyrell hate starts from Robert's Rebelion.

The Storm Lords would be forced to fllow the Lord of Storms End and if Renly was between Stannis and the bannermen he would still use the shadow to murder Renly. Then he would be th elord of Storm's End and Dragonstone.

 

Stannis married Selyse several years after Robert's Rebellion.

[Dreadscythe95]

14 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

Stannis married Selyse several years after Robert's Rebellion.

And long before WOT5K, yes. It was obviously a political marriage, like all marriages between nobles. Why would stannis marry the daughter of a Noble man of The Reach, and from a House that is not even amongst the strongest, biggest or wealthiest. The only thing that The Florents had that The Baratheons wanted was a strong claim to Highgarden. The Brother of the King could marry any woman in Westeros he desired, yet he took a Florent. Still, The Tyrells now knew that if they ever tried to rebel or do anything against the interests of the crown the Florents were there to take their place. It's a straight up threat.

[Trigger Warning]

11 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

And long before WOT5K, yes. It was obviously a political marriage, like all marriages between nobles. Why would stannis marry the daughter of a Noble man of The Reach, and from a House that is not even amongst the strongest, biggest or wealthiest. The only thing that The Florents had that The Baratheons wanted was a strong claim to Highgarden. The Brother of the King could marry any woman in Westeros he desired, yet he took a Florent. Still, The Tyrells now knew that if they ever tried to rebel or do anything against the interests of the crown the Florents were there to take their place. It's a straight up threat.

I don't disagree I just thought by many years you meant pre rebellion. 

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

That's not true. The Tyrells almost killed Stannis , his family and his men at the Siege of Storm's End and because they fought against Robert he gave Stannis a Florent as his wife. This puts the Florents at King's Court while The Tyrells are not which gives FLorent influnce and also it is a threat because it means that if Robert dies and Stannis becomes King The Florents sit on The Iron Throne. The Florents have many times claimed that Highgarden belongs to them and they rebelled against The Tyrells in the first chance as we saw. Still I don't know how you even think that it's fantasy but we already know that it is true. There is no way that if Stannis becomes King that The Tyrells will ever manage to have influence on The Iron Throne and that's ther best case scenario. What stops Stannis from giving Highgarden to one of his children or grandchildren, The Tyrells are not straight of the line of Garth Greenhand unlike the Florents.

It's true, the whole Stannis-Tyrell beef is a absurd slippery slope LF told Ned and people take at face value.

Yes, The Tyrells starved  Stannis... It was war and Stannis himself makes clear that he understood the loyalist and that had Robert not been his older brother, he would've never rebelled. Hell, Stannis the grumpy never once talks about the incident  with resentment against the Reach lords.

 

The Tyrells have ruled Highgarden for 300 years, they have blood ties  with the most powerful Houses of the Reach... That's stopping Stannis.

 

But if you say otherwise, I'd like to see quotes about the beef. 

[frenin]

35 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

And long before WOT5K, yes. It was obviously a political marriage, like all marriages between nobles. Why would stannis marry the daughter of a Noble man of The Reach, and from a House that is not even amongst the strongest, biggest or wealthiest. The only thing that The Florents had that The Baratheons wanted was a strong claim to Highgarden. The Brother of the King could marry any woman in Westeros he desired, yet he took a Florent. Still, The Tyrells now knew that if they ever tried to rebel or do anything against the interests of the crown the Florents were there to take their place. It's a straight up threat.

Probably because the Florents number among the strongest and wealthiest Houses in Westeros... 

[Bernie Mac]

7 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

Yes, it is a book ........................ But we are on a discussion forum about that book,

Exactly. So we don't need to point out things that are plot, it is all plot. None of it is real.

For some reason there are fans of certain characters/factions who are convinced it is only plot device when things go bad for their favoured characters and natrual when the plot puts their favoruties in a favorable postion.

7 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

The very fact that you are here negates the argument you are trying to make.  

eh?

7 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

 

That being said, it is possible you didnt understand what I was saying. 

It is also possible that you were not being clear with what you meant. Could be either.

7 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

If Renly lives, you remove the plot device of a failed Baratheon-Tyrell alliance.

The Renly Tyrell alliance itself is a plot device.

7 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

 

The Lannisters stand alone against a Stark-Tully-Baratheon-Tyrell alliance.  the logical conclusion is that they crush the Lannisters. 

Well, no, they'd not be against an alliance of those sides given that Robb did not sanction his mother to give away his crown.

It is still a game of risk, with multiple factions. The odds were more in favor of a Renly victory over Joffrey, Robb and perhaps Balon, but nothing is set in stone in a multi factioned war.

Tywin and Tyrion are both pretty intelligent individuals, both thought their faction could win.

7 hours ago, dsjj251 said:

My post wasnt an attack on the book, or even its tropes, only that one giant device that swings power in the books would be gone. 

There are multiple times when power swings for or against a faction. Any long term war will have such events, though not from magic.

[Dreadscythe95]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Probably because the Florents number among the strongest and wealthiest Houses in Westeros... 

No they don't and we know it as well. There are many far stronger houses and especially in The Reach. 

It is not a fake story by LF man, it's politics, get over it. And even if as you say Stannis didn't hold a grudge to the House that almost murdered him and sieged his home, The Tyrells still would NEVER want a Florent on the Iron Throne.

[frenin]

37 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

No they don't and we know it as well. There are many far stronger houses and especially in The Reach. 

There far stronger houses?? Sure, the Florents are among the strongest and wealthiest?? Also true. The Florents are considered great lords.

 

Highgarden reaped the richest harvest. Tyrion eyed Mace Tyrell's broad belly and thought, He has a prodigious appetite, this one. Tyrell demanded the lands and castles of Lord Alester Florent, his own bannerman, who'd had the singular ill judgment to back first Renly and then Stannis. Lord Tywin was pleased to oblige. Brightwater Keep and all its lands and incomes were granted to Lord Tyrell's second son, Ser Garlan, transforming him into a great lord in the blink of an eye. His elder brother, of course, stood to inherit Highgarden itself

 

37 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

It is not a fake story by LF man, it's politics, get over it.

Do you have a quote?? It's like me saying that Robert holds a grudge over Randyll for defeating him at Ashford. 

 

37 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

The Tyrells still would NEVER want a Florent on the Iron Throne.

I did not argue that.

[dsjj251]

58 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

The Renly Tyrell alliance itself is a plot device.

meh, we debating arbitrary things. 

There is a big difference between a marriage of 2 powerful families that work in universe, and major character deaths outside of their expected storylines. 

 

Quote

Well, no, they'd not be against an alliance of those sides given that Robb did not sanction his mother to give away his crown.

What are you talking about ? She didnt give away his crown.  they are negotiating. 

Quote

It is still a game of risk, with multiple factions. The odds were more in favor of a Renly victory over Joffrey, Robb and perhaps Balon, but nothing is set in stone in a multi factioned war.

Tywin and Tyrion are both pretty intelligent individuals, both thought their faction could win.

 

Renly is smart enough to know Tywin is his enemy and not Robb and would  at worst, take Kings Landing and then fight Robb. 

[The hairy bear]

On 4/5/2020 at 3:46 PM, Bernie Mac said:

No, Robb rebelled before any other claimant declared themselves King. He called his banners and fought the crown's representatives before he heard about Renly declaring himself King.

Robb's actions before being crowned at Riverrun would be perfectly compatible with him declaring his support for Stannis afterwards. The Northmen weren't fighting "the crown's representatives", but the Lannisters. Given that Joffrey was still a minor and late king Robert had named Ned as regent, their hold on power was more than questionable in legal grounds (of the 7 members of Robert's Small Council, only 3 supported the Lannister's usurpation).

In any case, I think that it's reasonable to assume that if Stannis had claimed the crown before Robb reached Riverrun and Renly hadn't crowned himself, Robb would have declared for Stannis.