Renly Baratheon the Early Years.

[Peach King]

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

He did not know this. He claims this post hoc after Ned had been executed by Joffrey when talking to his widow. And he doesn't actually use words that suggest execution there, he seems to be talking about covert murder - Cersei would have seen that he didn't live that long. That smells to me like this standard 'women are evil poisoners' slander. Cersei did a lot of ugly things but so far she never poisoned anyone, nor ever commanded or considered something like that.

He did know this because that's basically what he says to Ned, that the Lannisters have no mercy, that Cersei would be opposing them. And she didn't poison anyone but she paid someone to kill Robert at the melee, drugged Robert so he would have an accident, tried to get Margaery framed for adultery and gave several people over to Qyburn, who tortured and experimented on them.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

Kingslanders loathe them because of that sack, but that's just the Kingslanders. And yes, Cersei is proud and vain, and people dislike that she has the ear of the king and stuff, but that's standard issue. A lot of people in high places are loathed by people who would like to be in their place. The kind of rumor Cat brings to Ned - about the pride of the Lannister queen growing with each year actually sounds like straight out of a fairy-tale book. Could be Snow White's stepmother talking to her magic mirror.

Yes she has the ear of the king, and she wants Lannisters everywhere and not Baratheons, signalling that she would not be happy with them in power.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

The idea that a queen can easily afford to execute a brother of the old and uncle of the new king easily doesn't hold much water. As things stand Ned's execution nearly destroyed the Lannister reign, if they had also executed Renly they wouldn't have survived that.

She's not going to execute him, she's either going to remove him from power or make him have an "accident". As we can see in Cersei's ASOS chapters Cersei only wants lackeys and nitwits on her council, people who don't threaten her rule. And Aurane, because he's hot.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

And again - the issue here is that I don't buy for a moment Renly was happy with just being the Master of Law of new King Joffrey. He wanted more, and he wanted that with Ned's help, and he correctly estimated Cersei wouldn't give it to him if she ran the new government. So he left. And he did not crown himself to save his life. He had already saved his life/freedom by running away.

He probably wouldn't even be Master of Laws under Cersei's reign.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

There is no indication that Renly came to court 'all of a sudden', nor is his mere existence a reason for Cersei - even a Cersei who gave the king no legitimate children - to see him as a threat. For that, there has to be more. Much more, in fact, considering that Renly was just a boy when Cersei and Robert married and Cersei could easily enough become some sort of surrogate mother to him.

GRRM says Renly only came to court when he was old enough - that implies to me he was at least the age of majority. 

There doesn't have to be much more. Jon being a boy doesn't mean Catelyn didn't see him as a threat.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

He never says he fears them - he just says he expects Cersei to prepare for a fight and that the Lannisters are not merciful - which we don't know whether it refers to his fear or his fear for Ned. Keep in mind that unlike Renly Ned was the guy who had actually taken the Lannisters head on. He was the one whose wife abducted Tyrion, he was the one who came to blows with Jaime in the streets. Renly and Cersei's men never fought over anything.

If he says they're merciless and that he expects them to sieze power immediately, that means he fears them.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

This is also part of the Baratheon underdevelopment issue - Renly has no personal guard with him, no equivalent to the Stark and Lannister household guards (which he should have as a member of the royal family and a great lord in his own right), just as there are no Baratheon men whatsoever in the city or at court. Robert doesn't seem to have any Stormlander buddies at all, and neither does Renly until ACoK.

He does have them, Littlefinger says Renly has 30 men in his personal guard.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

And if there were severe tensions between the Lannisters and Lord Renly, then we would have to expect there to be tensions between their retinues and retainers - their men coming to blows in inns and in the yard, etc. But there is none of that, either. People of high birth usually express their displeasure openly for all the world to see - just as they don't keep their grudges privately. The Blacks and Greens also didn't hate each other privately.

But Renly-Cersei is just underdeveloped. As is Stannis-Cersei.

They didn't hate each other privately - Joffrey made it plain he hated Renly. Renly also mocked Joffrey, but he mocks everyone so that doesn't say much.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

I just want more context and an actual plot and not just some cryptic lines I can then use to create my own narrative. This is especially annoying with Renly's obscure Margaery plot - how the hell did Renly think he could replace Cersei with Margaery exactly? How would that have worked? And how did Cersei think Robert could actually set her aside as a wife when she had given him three children, was the daughter of the most powerful man in the Realm to whom the Crown was very much indebted.

This all feels as if it has little to no substance, very much unlike later plot points which feel and are much more developed.

Maybe it's a first book thing and GRRM hadn't laid out all the laws of the ASOIAF world. 

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

Cersei changes due to all the stuff that happens to her, but Cersei isn't 'the Lannisters'.

Yeah, Cersei is the 'Lannister in charge' who controls Joffrey, the 'Lannister who will be in charge in the future'.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

No, that isn't the logical outcome at all. For one, as you would know, Mace's favorite son, Loras Tyrell, flees from court with Renly. Are you going to tell me Loras would have advised his old man to marry Margaery to the son of the woman he just ran away from? If the Tyrells had any intention to marry Margaery to Joffrey why the hell didn't Loras tell his lover that he can run away himself - and stayed at court offering Queen Cersei the swords and gold and support of House Tyrell if King Joffrey would marry his sister?

After all, if we believe Renly didn't want the crown at the time of the escape, and if a marriage alliance was the price he had to pay to the Tyrells, then Loras could have arranged this match for Margaery with King Joffrey much easier if he had stayed behind.

If the added incentive of his daughter being  Renly's queen isn't there, Mace might very well decide to marry Margaery to Joffrey, Loras does not run things in Highgarden.

Quote

 

....unrolled it, and began to read a long list of names, commanding each in the name of king and council to present themselves and swear their fealty to Joffrey. Failing that, they would be adjudged traitors, their lands and titles forfeit to the throne.

The names he read made Sansa hold her breath. Lord Stannis Baratheon, his lady wife, his daughter. Lord Renly Baratheon. Both Lord Royces and their sons. Ser Loras Tyrell. Lord Mace Tyrell, his brothers, uncles, sons...

 

Also The Tyrells were called to KL to pledge fealty. The Tyrells would just have stayed put and be adjudged traitors. Because Loras would cry otherwise. Yeah sure.

Renly didn't run away because he already was planning on being king. He ran away because he had just been attempting a coup in sight of Cersei's men, and he knew that Cersei would fight Ned. If Loras stayed behind, he would have become a hostage to the Lannisters. Just like the Redwyne twins. 

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

There are other weird issues there, too. Renly wanted to get a hundred men for Ned, and he fled not with Loras and himself alone, but he and Loras left behind the Redwyne twins, Loras's own first cousins and pretty crucial and high-ranking people. Why was that?

I see it as a plot hole to get the Lannisters the Redwyne fleet.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

Tywin rules once he arrives in the capital, no matter the title. Cersei never really pushed the issue, although she could have and if she had played her cards right she may have been able to put the old man into his place. But she was her father's daughter and accustomed to obey him.

Things Renly has no reason to expect.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

Well, I'm not sure they invited the entire Realm to his funeral, but, sure, the Kingslanders didn't love him. But we have no idea how unpopular Cersei is, for instance. Sure she is Tywin's daughter and a haughty and prideful woman, so she wouldn't be that popular, but she is also very beautiful so I doubt everybody hated her while she was Robert's queen for over ten years.

This is derailing from the original point - which is that Renly could not expect Tywin to be accommodating, given his actions and his reputation.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

And this what I contest because crowning yourself in his position was actually the worst choice he could make - and something he also could have known. Just as Robb could have known that crowning himself was a pretty sure way to get himself killed. It is not that difficult to figure that out because it limits the options you have - you lose a lot of political leeway. You have to behave like a king if you want to be one. You cannot compromise the way a lord could, you cannot swear fealty to another king unless you want to lose face and your crown and the respect of your lords and bannermen. And you make yourself a target, as Renly learned when he drowned in blood. Stannis would have never killed him if he hadn't crowned himself.

He killed him with a shadow baby, something no one could expect. So yes, I still say it was the best decision.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

If you assume 'Renly knew that Cersei would kill him because of ... reasons' then I say 'Renly must have known that Stannis would never suffer him as king and would rather hire a Faceless Man to murder than ever do him homage as a king'. And I'd say this is actually more likely true since Renly would have known Stannis much better than Cersei, especially since Stannis never keeps his feelings for himself. The idea that Stannis would ever sink so low as to do homage to his younger brother is insane - and Renly should have known this.

It's not "because....reasons".

It's because: 

1. Renly was a threat to the succession AKA a threat to Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella. We know what Cersei does to people who threaten her children (she wanted Arya's hand cut off and had Mycah killed).

2. To further that point, Catelyn never could warm up to Jon for the same reasons.

3. Cersei wanted more and more - she wanted Jaime as Warden of the East, had her cousins as squires to the king, and the court was full of Lannisters. Even Ned noticed this.

4. She comes from a family who have no qualms with backstabbing and conspiracy.

As for your second point that's just more reason why contacting Stannis is a dumb idea.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

We don't know anything about conditions there. Such a condition was made when Margaery married Joffrey, but we have no idea how the decision to crown Renly was made ... or whether the Tyrells made it a condition that Renly marry Margaery. Could very well be Renly wanted to be king, told Mace to support him, and demanded that they give him Margaery's hand in marriage.

If we aren't sure, then we can say it might have been a reasonable fear of Renly's (that they would not rebel in favour of him if they didn't get Margaery as queen) .

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

 

So he has every reason to believe Cersei wants to kill him, but no reason to believe his dear brother Stannis also dislikes Cersei and that Cersei also wants to do away with Stannis? How, pray, did Renly figure out the former but overlooked the latter? Was Cersei-Stannis being 'mortal enemies' some sort of secret?

 

Renly is self centered. And they weren't mortal enemies. And Stannis can serve people he dislikes - he served Robert for years. He was even conflicted about supporting Robert over Aerys.

And if he supports Stannis he loses the Tyrell support for sure. 

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

Cat suggests such a council. It would have been doable. It may not have been an official Great Council, but the one appointing the last regency government of Aegon III also was no official Great Council. If Renly had gotten the Martells, Tyrells, Hightowers, Arryns, his brother Stannis, and the Tullys/Starks on the same page to take away the regency from the Lannisters then this would have happened. If the Lannisters had continued hostilities, those allies would have raised their own troops, would have crushed Tywin in the field, would have seized capital and court, and would have appointed a regency government for King Joffrey - like the lords did with Aegon III repeatedly.

This is one of the better suggestions. However

Catelyn suggests this to Renly after Renly was crowned king, after the incest allegations, and after the succession was muddied. Even then, it probably would not have been possible.

Plus if you're going to rebel against the Lannisters, you might as well remove all of them from power - which is why Ned or Jon or Stannis or Robert didn't suggest a Regency government for Viserys or Dany. This is understandable, because once you've had the royal family behind bars/executed, the rest of the family won't look upon you kindly. Once Joffrey or Tommen reaches the age of majority, they will have total power, and the head of the "traitors" might start rolling.

Jaime even thinks to himself it would be ridiculous to try for the regency of a small child just after a civil war.

This might be the less treacherous plan, but declaring himself king was still the best plan for his own self interest and for self preservation. A Regency government has dangers - some random overly ambitious lord (like Unwin Peake), Joffrey shouting "off with his head!" as soon as he's 16, the lords not seeing enough incentive to rebel, the North/Riverlands not standing for Joffrey on the throne, meaning Renly has to fight against them, Eddard wasn't executed yet meaning he could have been released and the fighting would have ended, suddenly the realm is no longer at war and no one has a reason to fight the Lannisters, etc etc

In Robert's Rebellion, a large number of lords stayed neutral or sided against Robert, Jon, and Hoster. That tells me plain old rebellion isn't much of a motivation for the lords, especially lords who have no beef with the current rulers. People need to fight for something bigger - like a new king, perhaps. Not some unknown boy king like Joffrey, but a charismatic, confident one like Renly.

The big problem I have with Renly is that he made no arguments such as "The Lannisters broke the social contract" "The Lannisters want me dead" "Stannis worships the Red god" etc he only said that privately to Catelyn. Only "might is right". That's a major reason why he can be criticized. But he shouldn't be criticized for rebelling against people who wanted him dead.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

Storm's End was also never taken by storm.

But its easily surrounded. There's no long formidable journey through treacherous passes.

On 6/5/2020 at 11:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

None of those brothers and uncles and cousins do show up in ACoK. They aren't with Renly at Bitterbridge or Storm's End. There are Tyrell men with Renly, but no actual Tyrells besides Margaery and Loras ... unless, perhaps, some fourth cousins or so who weren't important enough attend war councils. If the fathers and brothers of Alla and Megga and Elinor had been with Renly they would have been seen by Catelyn, and they would have attended the war council.

 

If they weren't there why would their tents and servants and armsmen be there?  And only seasoned commanders and the Rainbow Guard were in Renly's war Council.