How is Dany's storyline going to fit into 2 books?

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

What you're saying is all reasonable. My point is that as long as George is, in his own head, committed to finishing in 7 books, he has to take into account what needs to happen in ADOS when determining what goes into TWOW and where he leaves off. If he decided to add more books - which he did with basically every previous installment after AGOT - then sure, he can just leave off wherever he is when he hits the page limit like he did with ADWD. But as long as he refuses to budge from the 7 book constraint, he has to take into account what's going to happen in the last book. You can say that it's not realistic for him to finish in two books at the current pace the plot is progressing - and I'd probably agree with you on that - but as long as George himself doesn't acknowledge it, which he hasn't for over 15 years (nearly 10 of which are between ADWD and TWOW) in contrast to his previous decisions to add extra installments, then it is a very real factor in his writing process.

Technically that would be true, but I really don't think he works that way. He thinks in chapters and seems to continuously delude himself insofar as how quickly the story can progress. He failed to write the trilogy he wanted to write and failed to advance the plot to the point he intended it to go in AGoT for all characters but Daenerys - which caused all sorts of problems along the way.

But in general it is quite clear George needs much more pages - and continuously produces potential for more - while writing things. Only that explains how the story could explode the way it did. And there isn't the slightest indication to simplify or dumb down things.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Technically that would be true, but I really don't think he works that way. He thinks in chapters and seems to continuously delude himself insofar as how quickly the story can progress. He failed to write the trilogy he wanted to write and failed to advance the plot to the point he intended it to go in AGoT for all characters but Daenerys - which caused all sorts of problems along the way.

But in general it is quite clear George needs much more pages - and continuously produces potential for more - while writing things. Only that explains how the story could explode the way it did. And there isn't the slightest indication to simplify or dumb down things.

You're certainly right about his history with this series.  If we were back in the early or mid 2010s I'd probably agree with you completely and say that we should expect an announcement of additional books shortly. But if he hasn't realized after nine years that he needs at least one more volume, when is he going to do that? I don't think it's just about not having written the number of manuscript pages. Some time around 5 years ago he was convinced he was almost finished and I can't imagine he would have said that if he didn't have a clear majority of the expected pages written, meaning he's presumably scrapped a lot of stuff and done a bunch of rewrites. Issues with narrative, timing, and flow are likely a big part of that, and it's hard for me not to believe that at least some of that has to do with the constraint in his mind that he only has one book after this to finish the series. 

One thing I want to add is that I do think George has broad ideas of what he wants to accomplish in a volume when he starts out, presumably with vague end points in mind. When he first started writing AGOT, it was supposed to cover Act I of his trilogy. He added ACOK when he realized he wouldn't be able to finish that in one volume, and he added ASOS when he realized he needed another book to do that. AFFC was conceived as a bridge to Act II covering the 5 year gap before he scrapped that. He ended up having to divide that into two books, and he left out the climax of ADWD with all the battles because of page constraints. So while you are right that thus far he hasn't hesitated to push stuff to a later volume when he realizes he can't get to it in the current one, I don't think that means he doesn't have some general ideas of where he wants to go with a book when he starts out; and as I've said, as long as he's committed to only one book after this, I think this time he necessarily has to be more hesitant about pushing stuff to the next volume. Until he admits he'll need an eighth volume (at least) it's hard for me not to think this is a factor in why TWOW is taking so long nine years later. At this point, George either 1) tries to fit the remaining story into two books no matter what, 2) finally admits after so long that he needs more books, or 3) just doesn't bother to finish. He clearly hasn't given up yet, so until he says #2 I have to believe #1 is what he's currently trying to accomplish.

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

You're certainly right about his history with this series.  If we were back in the early or mid 2010s I'd probably agree with you completely and say that we should expect an announcement of additional books shortly. But if he hasn't realized after nine years that he needs at least one more volume, when is he going to do that? I don't think it's just about not having written the number of manuscript pages. Some time around 5 years ago he was convinced he was almost finished and I can't imagine he would have said that if he didn't have a clear majority of the expected pages written, meaning he's presumably scrapped a lot of stuff and done a bunch of rewrites. Issues with narrative, timing, and flow are likely a big part of that, and it's hard for me not to believe that at least some of that has to do with the constraint in his mind that he only has one book after this to finish the series. 

He was convinced he could finish it in some months ... but he didn't. And that doesn't has to men mean he was close to the ending then and scrapped a lot of stuff (although it could mean that). It could also just mean he was confident he could write a number of chapters in a small amount of time and then it turned out he could not.

I don't expect any announcements. In fact, I'd expect those only when ADoS is finished and clearly doesn't have an ending. Then there would be another book after that one - and another after that one, if he gets around to write those.

10 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

One thing I want to add is that I do think George has broad ideas of what he wants to accomplish in a volume when he starts out, presumably with vague end points in mind. When he first started writing AGOT, it was supposed to cover Act I of his trilogy. He added ACOK when he realized he wouldn't be able to finish that in one volume, and he added ASOS when he realized he needed another book to do that. AFFC was conceived as a bridge to Act II covering the 5 year gap before he scrapped that. He ended up having to divide that into two books, and he left out the climax of ADWD with all the battles because of page constraints. So while you are right that thus far he hasn't hesitated to push stuff to a later volume when he realizes he can't get to it in the current one, I don't think that means he doesn't have some general ideas of where he wants to go with a book when he starts out; and as I've said, as long as he's committed to only one book after this, I think this time he necessarily has to be more hesitant about pushing stuff to the next volume. Until he admits he'll need an eighth volume (at least) it's hard for me not to think this is a factor in why TWOW is taking so long nine years later. At this point, George either 1) tries to fit the remaining story into two books no matter what, 2) finally admits after so long that he needs more books, or 3) just doesn't bother to finish. He clearly hasn't given up yet, so until he says #2 I have to believe #1 is what he's currently trying to accomplish.

Those books are not so much about certain key points and general climaxes. In some plots - like KL in ACoK - there is a grand finale at an ending. But others hardly started to be proper stories until ASoS or even AFfC (Bran, Arya, and Sansa).

It is quite clear why TWoW is taking as long as it does and chances are not that bad that it is going to take another five years or so - it is the trouble of fitting everything together properly. There should be a dozen or more Meereense Knots in TWoW even before you get to the Dany stuff. How are the various Westerosi plots going to converge and intersect with each other? How and when will Euron-Aegon-Littlefinger-Cersei-Catelyn-Dorne-Stannis clash? How are the various characters who have hooked up with each other proceed with or without each other and how are they going to get where the overall plot needs them at a certain later point? How far advanced is the Westerosi plot going to be when Dany arrives, and how long will it take her to get there when she finally starts moving?

This could be written pretty fast if the author knew how to do it - but George writes by trial-and-error. There are a couple of known versions of the AFfC Prologue (from Pate's POV, Rosey's, and Mollander's) and three different time frames for the arrival of Quentyn at Meereen (the one we know, one long before the Hizdahr marriage, and one long after - in the third scenario Marwyn would have been with Dany when Quentyn arrived).

If you write in this way then relatively easy problems - like this Meereen thing which turned out to be very trivial - take a long time to resolve.

Trying to wrap up the story in two books would turn it into a parady. He would have to rush through everything at a much faster pace than the show. It would turn into the worst modern fantasy series - an imbalanced joke where a threat (the Others) were built for six books to be effectively being dealt with the same moment we understood what they were about.

When a book series or a novel approaches its ending you know it as a reader. There are clues aplenty, things like knowing what the finale will be about, how the central conflict will be resolved, etc. And there is nothing of this sort there at this point. We don't know what the Others want, we don't know when and how Dany will reach Westeros, we don't know when/how/if the Wall is going to fall, we don't know how the Others can be defeated. We are not at the point where we have a preliminary picture of the finale which could then be shaken up by some twists and turns along the way.

Imagine LotR as the six books which are in the three volumes. Transferred to ASoIaF we would be at the finale of TTT right now. Do you think George's Frodo and Sam are about to enter Mordor? I don't think so.

We know George wants there to be another Dance of the Dragons - if that means a conflict where Dany and Aegon (and perhaps Euron and Cersei and Stannis and a couple of other people) will fight on different sides then, at this point, he still has to do the groundwork to build this war up. Then would come the war itself (the War of the Five Kings took about one and a half novel (last third of AGoT to second half ASoS - a little bit longer if we say it only ended with the deaths of Joff and Tywin). Then there are the Others - they have to be properly build up as a threat, have to eventually attack the Wall and breach it - something that shouldn't happen without the good guys first trying to stop them - and then they have to unleash winter and cold and despair on all of Westeros to make the people and us finally understand what winter is about in this world.

You cannot do that in just 2,000 published pages. Especially not when the cast and the plots have become as broad as they are.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

He was convinced he could finish it in some months ... but he didn't. And that doesn't has to men mean he was close to the ending then and scrapped a lot of stuff (although it could mean that). It could also just mean he was confident he could write a number of chapters in a small amount of time and then it turned out he could not.

I don't expect any announcements. In fact, I'd expect those only when ADoS is finished and clearly doesn't have an ending. Then there would be another book after that one - and another after that one, if he gets around to write those.

Those books are not so much about certain key points and general climaxes. In some plots - like KL in ACoK - there is a grand finale at an ending. But others hardly started to be proper stories until ASoS or even AFfC (Bran, Arya, and Sansa).

If you write in this way then relatively easy problems - like this Meereen thing which turned out to be very trivial - take a long time to resolve.

Trying to wrap up the story in two books would turn it into a parady. He would have to rush through everything at a much faster pace than the show. It would turn into the worst modern fantasy series - an imbalanced joke where a threat (the Others) were built for six books to be effectively being dealt with the same moment we understood what they were about.

When a book series or a novel approaches its ending you know it as a reader. There are clues aplenty, things like knowing what the finale will be about, how the central conflict will be resolved, etc. And there is nothing of this sort there at this point. We don't know what the Others want, we don't know when and how Dany will reach Westeros, we don't know when/how/if the Wall is going to fall, we don't know how the Others can be defeated. We are not at the point where we have a preliminary picture of the finale which could then be shaken up by some twists and turns along the way.

I'm not saying he was on the last chapter or anything, but I can't imagine he had less than half the book left when he said expected to finish in a few months.

You could be right as far as an announcement, but previously he seemed to realize and announce he'd need additional volumes fairly early in the writing process. It's been 15 years since he's done that. He may ultimately change his mind, but I have to think there's a reason why he's been so hesitant to add another since then, when he added 4 in a span of less than 10 years before that.

Regarding the key points and climaxes - I think you kinda missed what I was saying there. Yes, the published novels don't always finish on a climax. As I said in my last post, I don't think that proves George doesn't have such things in mind when he starts out, it's just that he often has to push things to the next book. When he started writing AGOT he envisioned his first act ending in that book. Then he realized he needed another and then another. Feast was supposed to be a transition novel, then it got split, then he had to push the conclusion to ADWD to TWOW. That the finished novels don't always have these climaxes doesn't mean he wasn't trying to hit certain points when he set out. In the past, he's added additional novels when he's realized he can't get there in the current one, and/or shifted things to the next one. When he finishes TWOW, I have to think it will be obvious to him at that point whether or not he can finish in one more book (I think you're probably right that he can't). IMO that means he's either going to have to accept that he needs at least two more books to finish the series and he decides to publish TWOW whenever he hits the max page count with an otherwise satisfying story, or he's going to have to make the story work somehow so that ADOS can conclude the series as the seventh book. I think we are in large part talking past each other here. It's just that for me, I have a hard time believing that George hasn't been thinking about this as he's been writing TWOW, and if he hasn't announced that there will be at least 8 books yet there's got to be a reason for it. I'm not saying that means he'll never do such a thing, but if he does come to a realization that he needs to do 8+ books, I'm even less optimistic about the chances of ever getting a complete book series.

[Lord Varys]

20 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I'm not saying he was on the last chapter or anything, but I can't imagine he had less than half the book left when he said expected to finish in a few months.

You could be right as far as an announcement, but previously he seemed to realize and announce he'd need additional volumes fairly early in the writing process. It's been 15 years since he's done that. He may ultimately change his mind, but I have to think there's a reason why he's been so hesitant to add another since then, when he added 4 in a span of less than 10 years before that.

Regarding the key points and climaxes - I think you kinda missed what I was saying there. Yes, the published novels don't always finish on a climax. As I said in my last post, I don't think that proves George doesn't have such things in mind when he starts out, it's just that he often has to push things to the next book. When he started writing AGOT he envisioned his first act ending in that book. Then he realized he needed another and then another. Feast was supposed to be a transition novel, then it got split, then he had to push the conclusion to ADWD to TWOW. That the finished novels don't always have these climaxes doesn't mean he wasn't trying to hit certain points when he set out. In the past, he's added additional novels when he's realized he can't get there in the current one, and/or shifted things to the next one. When he finishes TWOW, I have to think it will be obvious to him at that point whether or not he can finish in one more book (I think you're probably right that he can't). IMO that means he's either going to have to accept that he needs at least two more books to finish the series and he decides to publish TWOW whenever he hits the max page count with an otherwise satisfying story, or he's going to have to make the story work somehow so that ADOS can conclude the series as the seventh book. I think we are in large part talking past each other here. It's just that for me, I have a hard time believing that George hasn't been thinking about this as he's been writing TWOW, and if he hasn't announced that there will be at least 8 books yet there's got to be a reason for it. I'm not saying that means he'll never do such a thing, but if he does come to a realization that he needs to do 8+ books, I'm even less optimistic about the chances of ever getting a complete book series.

I guess there is a chance that he'll realize he won't be able to finish the story in just another novel after TWoW is finished.

Chances that George will get around to finish that are very low at this point. Even if it were only two novels chances are he might not be able to finish ADoS even if TWoW were finished tomorrow.

The time to cut the story down to size would have been while writing AFfC and ADwD - no Ironborn and Dorne plots, no Brienne stuff, no Aegon plot and no return to the Dothraki. Instead, Dany moving to Westeros in ADwD and the subsequent war in TWoW with the Others plot climaxing in ADoS. That could have ended the story in seven volumes.

Anything else won't work.

I mean, seriously, he would have to scrap half of more of the plot and the characters he introduced as big players - or take out many of the cast from the first three novels - to cut the story down to get it quickly to the finale.

The POV thing is something you can illustrate this problem very well, but even if the POVs were down to the count of ACoK there are still many plots going on even without the POVs. Stannis, Euron, Doran, Aegon, Littlefinger, Catelyn, etc. are not going to disappear out of the story just because no POVs are around to cover them in detail.

George himself has said he regrets that he didn't have Robb as a POV - that could have gotten his story more depth. AGoT and ACoK are the weakest books in the series in my opinion because the scope of the story is very narrow. Only in later books to we start to get a feeling of the size of Westeros and its people. Describing a lot of plots in reports and the like isn't all that great. It could have been great to be at Oxcross with Robb or see him being injured at the Crag and get a more detailed view of how Sybell and her brother trapped him there.

It is pretty much inconceivable that George returns to this limited scope for characters he already introduced as POVs or characters he wants us to be seen by POVs.

[Back in Black-Snow]

31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Anything else won't work.

I have a hard time with this. I mean, I really do understand what you are saying. But we honestly have NO idea what George plans to do with his story.

He is not obligated to give us the story we want, and not even the story we somehwat expect. If we are all honest, we really have no idea what he has in mind. Many/most of us will probably be saying, "What the fuck!" when/if he finishes, because it is/won't be what we expected.

When Tyrion was sitiing in a prison cell waiting for execution, how many of us ecpected what we got in ADWD? Sure, we hoped that he would somehow survive, but, really? We expected THAT?

Or consider Jon Snow. Sure, we knew he was walking on thin ice, but did we expecr him to be murdered by his brothers in black?

There are so many other things we didn't expect or see coming (some we did, of course). But he is not obligated to give us the story we desire or even expect.

Can he pull off a satisfactory ending in two books? I think he can. And I cringe at using this phrase, but he will be "subverting expectations".

Shoot me! But if you miss, I'm gonna reuse those bullets to shoot you. Lol

ETA: Sure we knew Ned was probably going to die, but we sincerely hoped (and even believed) that he wouldn't. And when he actually did, it was a shock. Sure we underatood that Tyrion might actually die. But we hoped (even believed) he may not. Sure we knewJon Snow was playing with fire. But even in hindsight, I dis not see his murder coming.

So I guess what I am saying, let's give The George some credit. He knows what he is doing, even if he is struggling with the delivery. But I trust he will deliver. (I'm talking about his ability to deliver the story he wants in 2 books, not whether or not he lives long enough to deliver them).

Sorry for typos. Too many to correct.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Travis said:

I have a hard time with this. I mean, I really do understand what you are saying. But we honestly have NO idea what George plans to do with his story.

He is not obligated to give us the story we want, and not even the story we somehwat expect. If we are all honest, we really have no idea what he has in mind. Many/most of us will probably be saying, "What the fuck!" when/if he finishes, because it is/won't be what we expected.

When Tyrion was sitiing in a prison cell waiting for execution, how many of us ecpected what we got in ADWD? Sure, we hoped that he would somehow survive, but, really? We expected THAT?

Or consider Jon Snow. Sure, we knew he was walking on thin ice, but did we expecr him to be murdered by his brothers in black?

There are so many other things we didn't expect or see coming (some we did, of course). But he is not obligated to give us the story we desire or even expect.

Can he pull off a satisfactory ending in two books? I think he can. And I cringe at using this phrase, but he will be "subverting expectations".

Shoot me! But if you miss, I'm gonna reuse those bullets to shoot tou. Lol

I guess you forgot that Tyrion got out of his cell back in ASoS, did you?

This is not about individual plots but about the simple fact that complex plots that were build up throughout two novels have to play out. They were not built up to just lead nowhere. It is not about the story we expect, but the simple fact that we can be damned sure that we are going to get a complex and intricate story. TWoW and ADoS will be more like ASoS, AFfC/ADwD than ACoK or AGoT.

I'm not one for 'magical thinking' going along the lines of 'somehow he can do that even I've no idea how'. A book is just a book. There are a limited number of pages and a limited number of chapters. And there more you have to put in and address the less progress you make per volume.

'Subverting expectations' is something you can use on plots, not on the scope of the story. Because if the author who expanded the story greatly in AFfC and ADwD would just suddenly kill half of the cast or more (mostly people he just introduced in the last two volumes) then he would make himself a caricature and the last two books a travesty of the first five books.

It would be like the show where cheap murders and explosions were used as plot devices to end plots and stories the writers were unable to deal with. George had his share of atrocities and murders but even if crucial characters like Renly and Robb and Joffrey and Tywin are killed this doesn't make their people/movements go away.

[Back in Black-Snow]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess you forgot that Tyrion got out of his cell back in ASoS, did you?

No I didn't. I was talking about the progression of his story, not what specific book it happened in. Please excuse my error.

I understand and agree on the rest. But what I'm saying is, we don't know how he plans to resolve all of this (what we have at the end of Dance). What I'm saying is, that until we see it on page, we have no idea what he plans to do with all these apparent additions to the story. And although it is our right to expect and suppose, don't be surprised if it happens differently than what you expect or auppose. That's all I'm saying.

I expect certain things to happen, and I think other things may happen, but I would be a fool to say I know what should happen, or to take the pen from George and say, "Here! This is how you should finish your story."

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Travis said:

No I didn't. I was talking about the progression of his story, not what specific book it happened in. Please excuse my error.

Ah, okay, I didn't get that. But that Tyrion was going to go on a rather long journey to Dany was clear to a lot of people after ASoS came out.

Quote

I understand and agree on the rest. But what I'm saying is, we don't know how he plans to resolve all of this (what we have at the end of Dance). What I'm saying is, that until we see it on page, we have no idea what he plans to do with all these apparent additions to the story. And although it is our right to expect and suppose, don't be surprised if it happens differently than what you expect or auppose. That's all I'm saying.

I expect certain things to happen, and I think other things may happen, but I would be a fool to say I know what should happen, or to take the pen from George and say, "Here! This is how you should finish your story."

That is clear. But if we just look at the small thing of Dany's plot which is the topic of this thread then it is quite clear we can expect some intricate Dothraki plot to dominate her entire arc in TWoW. There were people thinking she might decide to leave Slaver's Bay in ADwD but that never happened ... at least not in the sense that she was going to Westeros. With her just being captured by Jhaqo at the end of ADwD we can reasonably expect her to be occupied with him for quite some time. And to make her taking over the Dothraki a realistic scenario George has to spend quite a few pages and chapters on this.

This is a story were politics are depicted pretty realistically, and there are formal rules what a khaleesi is going to do after he khal dies. Dany has a dragon, yes, but Drogon as such is not going to make her master of all the Dothraki. Nor can we really expect that she already has a plan how to accomplish this. If I read thinks correctly, then her notion at the end of ADwD simply is that she accepts she has to go back to get forward, i.e. she is going to get back on track by going back to the Dothraki. But she wouldn't have known that Jhaqo and Mago will turn out to be the ones who find her, meaning she is likely going to have a tougher time than she would have had if a different khalasar had found her.

Bottom line is - this is not a plot that will be rushed. Especially considering that George's Dothraki were rather crude and one-dimensional savage nomads in AGoT. He is likely going to add more depth to their culture and society in TWoW which is also going to involve some more time.

My guess is that her chapters might culminate in her taking over the Dothraki and then, perhaps, unite with the other dragonriders (especially Tyrion) and start some campaigns. If there are really quite a few Dany chapters then I could see her arc concluding with the destruction of Qarth and a meeting with Quaithe and Marwyn who Dany might meet at Qarth.

[LynnS]

55 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Botton line is - this is not a plot that will be rushed. Especially considering that George's Dothraki were rather crude and one-dimensional savage nomads in AGoT. He is likely going to add more depth to their culture and society in TWoW which is also going to involve some more time.

My guess is that her chapters might culminate in her taking over the Dothraki and then, perhaps, unite with the other dragonriders (especially Tyrion) and start some campaigns. If there are really quite a few Dany chapters then I could see her arc concluding with the destruction of Qarth and a meeting with Quaithe and Marwyn who Dany might meet at Qarth.

I agree.  She has to go back to Vaes Dothrak before she can move forward.  

Quote

"Remember. To go north, you must journey south. To reach the west, you must go east. To go forward you must go back, and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow."

In part, her purpose is to pass beneath the shadow of the mother of mountains and enter the womb of the world.  Which is suspect is the exclusive domain of the crones.  The crones and the mother of mountains have a certain religious importance.  The Khals swear on the mother of mountains; it's slopes are sacred.

Quaithe implores her to remember the undying or perhaps her vision of the crones:

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Beneath the Mother of Mountains, a line of naked crones crept from a great lake and knelt shivering before her, their grey heads bowed

Quote

The wild stallion's heart was all muscle, and Dany had to worry it with her teeth and chew each mouthful a long time. No steel was permitted within the sacred confines of Vaes Dothrak, beneath the shadow of the Mother of Mountains; she had to rip the heart apart with teeth and nails. Her stomach roiled and heaved, yet she kept on, her face smeared with the heartsblood that sometimes seemed to explode against her lips.

Passing beneath the shadow isn't a reference to Asshai by the shadow.  As a Khal's widow, Dany will be returned to her rightful place amongst the crones.  I think whatever it is that transpires with the crones, or whatever it is that Dany has to do to 'touch the light' will affect the outcome with the Dothraki.  Perhaps give her the authority to unite the Khals as foretold by the crones. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

I agree.  She has to go back to Vaes Dothrak before she can move forward.  

In part, her purpose is to pass beneath the shadow of the mother of mountains and enter the womb of the world.  Which is suspect is the exclusive domain of the crones.  The crones and the mother of mountains have a certain religious importance.  The Khals swear on the mother of mountains; it's slopes are sacred.

Quaithe implores her to remember the undying or perhaps her vision of the crones:

Passing beneath the shadow isn't a reference to Asshai by the shadow.  As a Khal's widow, Dany will be returned to her rightful place amongst the crones.  I think whatever it is that transpires with the crones, or whatever it is that Dany has to do to 'touch the light' will affect the outcome with the Dothraki.  Perhaps give her the authority to unite the Khals as foretold by the crones. 

Sure, all that is prepared to a degree by the history of the Dothraki as given in TWoIaF. There we learn that a reputed witch queen named Doshi was the mother of Mengo, the first khal to unite all the Dothraki, who followed her counsel. It seems pretty clear that the name 'dosh khaleen' derives from this Doshi woman.

AGoT makes it appear as if the dosh khaleen were a bunch of powerless old crones presiding over a city in the middle of nowhere, but Vaes Dothrak is the center of Dothraki culture and religion and the dosh khaleen exert a lot of power over the khals and their khalasars which can be seen by the simple fact that Drogo was apparently compelled to present his new wife to them for evaluation. There is a matriarchal element in Dothraki culture that is likely going to play a crucial role in Daenerys establishing herself as their ruler.

The other thing from TWoIaF is the fact that there was this Khal Dhako who fancied himself 'the Dragon of the North', a title implying that the Dothraki feared and admired the dragons and dragonlords of Old Valyria - something we can also see in Drogo's desire to make the last Targaryen princess his khaleesi.

That certainly can provide us with an explanation as to why and how Dany will be able to establish herself as their ruler now that she rides Drogon.

But there will still be obstacles to overcome. Dany will likely have to prove that she is the true 'Stallion that Mounts the World', she will have to deal with the enemies she has among the Dothraki - most notably, one assumes, Khal Jhaqo and his bloodrider Mago, but also Khal Pono. It will be an unheard of event that a woman who is still half a girl is going to presume to rule all the Dothraki, meaning that this isn't going to be a plot that can be accomplished in just 1-2 chapters. Even if some of the dosh khaleen and some of the khals want to make Dany their new ruler, others might not, so there is going to be conflict even before Dany is forced to prove who she is - which is likely going to involve some sort of ordeal or a set of other challenges.

There are ways to accelerate things somewhat - for instance, the dosh khaleen could have sent Jhaqo to Slaver's Bay to bring Dany back, and they could also have sent out a call to all the khalasars to come to Vaes Dothrak for the beginning of winter (I'd not be surprised if the Dothraki spent most of winter in their sacred city). But we do know that Pono, Zekko, and Motho are nowhere close to Vaes Dothrak during ADwD, making it unlikely they will be there already when Dany shows up there.

Finally, Dany taking over the Dothraki is not going to get her closer to Westeros. She will be in the middle of nowhere, in Vaes Dothrak, surrounded by hundreds of thousands of people who are going to want her to give them what they think their prophesied great khal owes them. People rarely have saviors/divine rulers who are not supposed to fulfill crucial roles for them in their mythology or religion. They won't see Dany's role as leading them to Westeros even if they also are going to agree that they will help to add that continent to their domains.

There should be discussions about using the dragons to cross the Bones, crush the fortress cities, and invade Yi Ti and the plains of the Jogos Nhai. For many a Dothraki those would be much richer prices that barbaric and distant Westeros. And much closer to Vaes Dothrak.

The bones Dany will likely have to throw to her new people - especially if she is going to force them to abolish slavery - would be all the Free Cities on the mainland of Essos aside from, perhaps, Braavos. And, of course, Qarth, which Dany is likely going to want to destroy herself both because of the slavery issues as well as because of the betrayal when they decided to declare war on her.

All those issues are going to slow things down. Even when they are finally on their way west they will have to crush the Three Daughters on the way to Westeros to move the armada to Westeros.

[LynnS]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

All those issues are going to slow things down. Even when they are finally on their way west they will have to crush the Three Daughters on the way to Westeros to move the armada to Westeros.

Excellent explanation.  Thank you.

[Back in Black-Snow]

Thank you @Lord Varys

[Back in Black-Snow]

I'm sorry but it would not let me add anything once I tagged a name. I also wanted to tag @LynnS

[Back in Black-Snow]

I agree with both (all of?) you. I'm just saying that although we have certain things in our head that should happen, George is not obligated to do that. That's all I'm saying. I guess?

But I agree with both of you. There is a lot that needs to happen.

ETA: Again, I'm sorry for the multiple posts. For some reason I cannot add anything once I tag a person.

[LynnS]

50 minutes ago, Travis said:

I agree with both (all of?) you. I'm just saying that although we have certain things in our head that should happen, George is not obligated to do that. That's all I'm saying. I guess?

But I agree with both of you. There is a lot that needs to happen.

ETA: Again, I'm sorry for the multiple posts. For some reason I cannot add anything once I tag a person.

Well, I am not nearly as conversant or knowledgeable on the material as Lord Varys; but I do think there are certain things that have to be paid off and can't really be ignored.

[BlackLightning]

On 5/14/2020 at 7:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

Twelve chapters seem to me far too many for a single POV in a book with as many POVs as TWoW will have. Especially in light of the fact that the big events of the book at the beginning - the two battles from ADwD that have yet to happen, Aegon's campaign in the Stormlands which is likely to move forward very fast, and the fallout of the Jon thing at the Wall - will take up a lot of pages.

Dany's story is not going to be all that important early on, even more so considering it is going to take time to get her to Vaes Dothrak if she moves with a khalasar.

And then there is the fact that POVs like Samwell, Sansa, Jaime, Bran, and Davos have some catching up to do. We last met them in AFfC or long before that book ended, meaning we should expect the author to move their story along faster than before.

The Prologue indicates that the situation in the Riverlands is likely to explode soon as well, meaning the author might focus on the POVs who are there right now (Jaime and Brienne) to a high degree, too.

Perhaps we are going to get to 6-7 chapters for a really important POV. But I really don't think that will be Daenerys. She is out of touch with everybody else right now and it might be more than enough for her story to do whatever thing she is going to do on her own with the Dothraki, perhaps ending the story with her first meeting with Tyrion ... who could search for her on dragonback.

I completely disagree. Twelve does seem like a lot but Dany has a lot to do before leaving for Westeros. Lots of loose ends need to be tied in Essos. Although I fully expect that she will "share" her later chapters with Tyrion, Victarion and maybe Barristan, I think some chapters will solely belong to Dany.

Like I think it will take 5-6 chapters for her to seize power in Vaes Dothrak, become Daenerys the Stallion and get back to Meereen. One chapter will be spent on getting to Vaes Dothrak (so that Dany will have personally have the experience of being a Dothraki slave/captive) and the other four-five chapters can be her rise to power. Daenerys needs to be able to keep her super-khalasar busy and there are other cities that need to be conquered, if not outright destroyed. Qarth and Yunkai come to mind.

I don't believe Tyrion is going to become a dragonrider. At all. Victarion probably will (I see him marrying Dany), Jon Snow almost certainly will but Tyrion won't. Ben Plumm is more likely to claim a dragon than Tyrion is.

The show glossed over it but Dany is not going to be able to fully trust Tyrion. Best case scenario, she will treat him similarly to how she treated Quentyn and Jorah. Worst case scenario (i.e. once she hears he killed his father and lover and sees how he treats Penny), Dany will treat him like Skahaz and Reznak if that.

You do have a good point though: Bran, Davos, Sansa and Samwell need chapters.

The Battle of Storm's End can be resolved in 2 chapters but I, for one, think that the Battle of Winterfell is going to last almost the entire book.

Also, if you look at the Jon chapters of ADwD then we got much ado about nothing there. He could have three chapters and essentially nothing of the plot may have been lost. The same with Tyrion's later chapters - the time he spends with Jorah and Penny. If we get many such chapters in TWoW for, say, Dany then her story is not going to progress very far even if she had, say, seven chapters.

While I agree that most of Tyrion's chapters and a bit of Jon's chapters are filler, I don't think Dany's chapters will have much filler. Not only will she be the only POV in her immediate vicinity, we haven't seen the Dothraki in quite awhile and that they and their religious beliefs are going to be very important in the story moving forward.

People seem to think that Dany is going to waltz right into Vaes Dothrak, sashay back to Meereen at the head of an army and immediately leave for Westeros.

No, Dany has scores to settle and battles to fight. She is done with playing nice but she is still going to want to abolish slavery.

Qarth, Yunkai and Volantis need to be put down and the problems left in her wake at Astapor and Meereen have be addressed somehow. Qohor, Lys, Myr and Tyrosh will rise against her because they are all dependent on slavery. Someone in Braavos seems to be interested in anti-dragon warfare. The Tattered Prince wants Pentos in exchange for his services. Quentyn's mother Mellario is in Norvos and the Dornishmen who came with Quentyn seem to be okay with spreading the rumor that Dany broke Quentyn's heart and allowed his dragons to kill him. Lys is a city that not only specializes in sexual slavery but it's the new home of Edric Storm, the one Robert Baratheon bastard everyone knows belongs to him.

And that's not even counting the fact that Aurane Waters effectively controls the southern half of the Narrow Sea.

If she doesn't close the book on these loose ends, they will menace her in King's Landing the same way that they menaced her in Meereen.

That's why I think she will have 10-12 chapters. No more half-measures: she has to conquer Essos to abolish slavery. Plus, it makes her look scary to the Westerosi.

TWoW is going to be a very weird book in light of the fact that it will start with many battles and confrontations with there possibly not being much fighting towards the end. Those battles should have marked the ending of ADwD but apparently there was no space for them in that book. Which also tells you a lot since ADwD didn't even include all the POVs and focused exclusively on three core POVs for the first half of the book, with Theon, Davos, Bran, and Quentyn only getting very few chapters in-between. Yet even then the author couldn't include those battles.

At the very least, the author could've covered part of the Battle of Meereen, the first two Arianne chapters and the story of how Aegon and the GC took Storm's End to begin with.

Sure, but as I said, we can already guess that certain people will feature heavily in the beginning of the book - Theon, Asha, Tyrion, Barristan, Victarion, Arianne, Jon Connington, and Aeron (to cover the battles and the Aegon campaign and Arianne's journey to Storm's End). We can be very sure those guys will have more than just three chapters. Arianne already has three chapters from ADwD that were all moved to TWoW (two of which we already know). The story for those guys who intersect for the time being - like Jon-Arianne, Theon-Asha, Brienne-Jaime, Tyrion-Victarion-Barristan, etc. - can progress faster if the author continues their story by switching from POV to POV and back again. But that would only work if they do not split up again soon - which might be the case for at least some of them.

The Theon/Asha and Brienne/Jaime duos are almost guaranteed to be splitting up. Matter of fact, I see Brienne/Jaime splitting up almost immediately.

There is also the fact that some stories really have some catching up to do - the Ironborn thing near the Arbor is likely going to demand a lot of focus after Euron has crushed the Redwynes - assuming he does that - possibly increasing the number of chapters Aeron and Sam are going to get (I expect Aeron to survive the coming battle).

See that's where we are different. I don't think Aeron is going to survive the Battle of the Redwyne Straits. Remember that he is tied to the prow of a warship and that Euron seems to be using him, Falia Flowers or both as part of a human sacrifice. I think Aeron will have but 2 (at most 3 chapters) before being sent to dine with the Drowned God under the sea.

I think once Aeron bites it and Euron wins, Euron will move on Oldtown which will then make Sam the primary POV for Euron for the rest of the book (or until he escapes).

The only POV I could expect to have very few to no POVs right now is Jon Snow - while stuck in Ghost Jon might get just one chapter to make it clear he still lives, but events at the Wall would then be shown through Mel's eyes. Once/if he gets back into his body he could be a proper POV again ... or not, depending how the author wants to deal with him after his resurrection. It wouldn't surprise me if he was no longer a POV in TWoW, only to, perhaps, return to that status later on or never. But even if Jon had no chapters at all in TWoW that wouldn't give the other POVs that much space - especially if his chapters went then effectively straight to Melisandre.

Yeah.

The core fact is that AFfC and ADwD greatly increased the number of POVs and there is no indication that this number is going to change drastically. In fact, to tell some crucial stories there might even be more POVs added - I think the story could only profit if we got a Tyrell or Sand Snakes POV for the King's Landing plot. With Cersei confined to Maegor's she is not going to be a good POV for politicking at the Red Keep - and even more so if she were to flee the city before Aegon takes it - and it wouldn't be a very tantalizing story if the entire plot of Aegon's rise to the Iron Throne were told from Arianne's and Jon's POVs. We would want to see the last days of Tommen's reign through the eyes of somebody close to him.

That is another place where we differ. While I do think Cersei won't be a good POV for politicking at the Red Keep at first, I think it will make both Cersei's character arc and the entire plot that much more engaging. Especially against the backdrop of a double murder mystery and the Westerosi-born love child of the Salem Witch Trials and the Not-Quite-Spanish Inquisition.

I wouldn't be opposed to a Tyrell POV (I think it will come in handy in A Dream of Spring) but it is good for the Red Keep (and Cersei) to be a bit handicapped. There are multiple crises ongoing in Oldtown, the Riverlands, the North, the Wall and maybe even the Vale. The plot can't progress without those crises being allowed to play out on their own. So, the Iron Throne can't interfere. Besides, with Pycelle dead, there's no way that the Red Keep can communicate with Winterfell or Riverrun. 

That said, I do think that something will happen to Tommen (and Mace and maybe Margaery). The Tyrells will be taken out of the game in King's Landing, Myrcella will become Queen and Cersei will come back into power....just before Aegon moves in on the city.

Getting down to 1-2 chapters for a POV strikes me as very odd. That I could see only for POVs who die very early in the book - and the only candidates for that at this point are Victarion (who might die shortly after Dragonbinder is sounded) and Aeron (who could be killed by Euron although I don't think that will happen). The idea that we will just get 1-2 chapters to catch up with POVs before their stories are abandoned strikes me as very unlikely. That is something we got in ADwD because certain POVs only popped up later in the story, but it isn't something we got in the last proper novel of the series, ASoS, nor in AFfC-ADwD combined (with the exception of Melisandre who, in my opinion, got her one chapter to set her up as the future POV telling the plot at the Wall).

All that greatly limits how far the overall story can progress in TWoW.

Are you thinking that GRRM will be forced to put out three books as opposed to two.

 

[Lord Varys]

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Like I think it will take 5-6 chapters for her to seize power in Vaes Dothrak, become Daenerys the Stallion and get back to Meereen. One chapter will be spent on getting to Vaes Dothrak (so that Dany will have personally have the experience of being a Dothraki slave/captive) and the other four-five chapters can be her rise to power. Daenerys needs to be able to keep her super-khalasar busy and there are other cities that need to be conquered, if not outright destroyed. Qarth and Yunkai come to mind.

Yunkai should be dealt with by Dany's people in Slaver's Bay. Qarth belongs to Dany.

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't believe Tyrion is going to become a dragonrider. At all. Victarion probably will (I see him marrying Dany), Jon Snow almost certainly will but Tyrion won't. Ben Plumm is more likely to claim a dragon than Tyrion is.

Victarion is very unlikely to become a dragonrider. Moqorro has taken over the Dragonbinder project and he is not there to make Victarion a great guy. The idea that the glory which awaits Vic according to Moqorro is something positive is a very naive belief ... you have to be as dumb as Vic to fall for that.

Ben and Tyrion are more realistic options. Ben has the blood, and Tyrion might, too, if he is Aerys' bastard. If not, then Dragonbinder could help him in the dragonrider department. There is a reason why Tyrion has been build up as a guy obsessed with dragons and dragonlore from the start. Without a dragon he'll have no role in the books. Neither Barristan nor any of Dany's other people are likely going to want to work with this freak. A dispossessed ugly dwarf guilty of kingslaying and kinslaying. Nobody could trust him and whatever knowledge he has would be useless until they reach Westeros. And might even be useless then because other people will be in charge who Tyrion knows nothing about.

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

The Battle of Storm's End can be resolved in 2 chapters but I, for one, think that the Battle of Winterfell is going to last almost the entire book.

Hopefully the latter is not going to happen.

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

While I agree that most of Tyrion's chapters and a bit of Jon's chapters are filler, I don't think Dany's chapters will have much filler. Not only will she be the only POV in her immediate vicinity, we haven't seen the Dothraki in quite awhile and that they and their religious beliefs are going to be very important in the story moving forward.

The idea is just that a lot of chapters are likely going to be filler. Doesn't have to be Dany's chapters, though. Could be others. But the number of filler chapters will certainly decrease the number of chapters where the plot is going to move along quickly.

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

People seem to think that Dany is going to waltz right into Vaes Dothrak, sashay back to Meereen at the head of an army and immediately leave for Westeros.

No, Dany has scores to settle and battles to fight. She is done with playing nice but she is still going to want to abolish slavery.

Yeah, that just cannot work. Even if George tried to write it like that, it wouldn't work.

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Qarth, Yunkai and Volantis need to be put down and the problems left in her wake at Astapor and Meereen have be addressed somehow. Qohor, Lys, Myr and Tyrosh will rise against her because they are all dependent on slavery. Someone in Braavos seems to be interested in anti-dragon warfare. The Tattered Prince wants Pentos in exchange for his services. Quentyn's mother Mellario is in Norvos and the Dornishmen who came with Quentyn seem to be okay with spreading the rumor that Dany broke Quentyn's heart and allowed his dragons to kill him. Lys is a city that not only specializes in sexual slavery but it's the new home of Edric Storm, the one Robert Baratheon bastard everyone knows belongs to him.

And that's not even counting the fact that Aurane Waters effectively controls the southern half of the Narrow Sea.

If she doesn't close the book on these loose ends, they will menace her in King's Landing the same way that they menaced her in Meereen.

That's why I think she will have 10-12 chapters. No more half-measures: she has to conquer Essos to abolish slavery. Plus, it makes her look scary to the Westerosi.

Things like that will happen - I expect that Euron ends up heading an anti-Dany coalition of the Three Daughters and the Stepstones pirates - but not necessarily in TWoW.

Archibald Yronwood and Gerris Drinkwater likely are set up to prepare the Second Dance - by leaving Meereen and return to Westeros before Dany returns to Meereen.

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

The Theon/Asha and Brienne/Jaime duos are almost guaranteed to be splitting up. Matter of fact, I see Brienne/Jaime splitting up almost immediately.

I don't know. Cannot see Brienne and Jaime being split up quickly. They are at Catelyn's mercy now. Why should she allow them to leave? Jaime will be forced to watch Emmon and Genna and Daven, etc. cruelly murdered or might even be forced to take an active role in all that. What Brienne is going to do will depend on what Catelyn wants her to do.

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

See that's where we are different. I don't think Aeron is going to survive the Battle of the Redwyne Straits. Remember that he is tied to the prow of a warship and that Euron seems to be using him, Falia Flowers or both as part of a human sacrifice. I think Aeron will have but 2 (at most 3 chapters) before being sent to dine with the Drowned God under the sea.

I think once Aeron bites it and Euron wins, Euron will move on Oldtown which will then make Sam the primary POV for Euron for the rest of the book (or until he escapes).

Euron has no interest in Oldtown. He is just passing the time. He wants the Iron Throne. If he were to sack Oldtown he could kiss that desire goodbye because nobody committing atrocities in the second largest city of Westeros is going to get sufficient support in the rest of Westeros to win the throne.

Aeron is tied to the prow with leather straps. Leather widens when it gets wet. Aeron will wiggle free before Euron can sacrifice him (although Falia and her unborn child are likely to die) and jump into the sea. The Drowned God has saved him once, he can do it again. Perhaps he is going to drown, but Euron is not going to get the chance to sacrifice him.

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

That is another place where we differ. While I do think Cersei won't be a good POV for politicking at the Red Keep at first, I think it will make both Cersei's character arc and the entire plot that much more engaging. Especially against the backdrop of a double murder mystery and the Westerosi-born love child of the Salem Witch Trials and the Not-Quite-Spanish Inquisition.

I wouldn't be opposed to a Tyrell POV (I think it will come in handy in A Dream of Spring) but it is good for the Red Keep (and Cersei) to be a bit handicapped. There are multiple crises ongoing in Oldtown, the Riverlands, the North, the Wall and maybe even the Vale. The plot can't progress without those crises being allowed to play out on their own. So, the Iron Throne can't interfere. Besides, with Pycelle dead, there's no way that the Red Keep can communicate with Winterfell or Riverrun. 

That said, I do think that something will happen to Tommen (and Mace and maybe Margaery). The Tyrells will be taken out of the game in King's Landing, Myrcella will become Queen and Cersei will come back into power....just before Aegon moves in on the city.

Cersei will still be a POV while she is in the city, but she cannot stay there for long ... else Mace or Aegon will kill her. She tried to destroy Margaery and the Tyrells know that. Kevan is dead, so nobody can protect her from their wrath. She herself won't feel safe there, either, with Tyrion emerging from the walls yet again to murder Kevan and Pycelle. She and Tommen might be next, so they have to go someplace safe to lick their wounds, regroup, and come back to avenge themselves. Although I don't think she will succeed in getting Tommen out of the city ... instead she might get him killed.

Aegon should take the Iron Throne very shortly after he takes Storm's End - the Tyrells are going to send men against him and he has to win or he is dead. If he wins, then he should take the city very shortly afterwards.

There are other maesters in KL and the Red Keep, by the way.

Even if Mace and Margaery were to die ... Mace has 30,000-40,000 men in the city right now. Nobody is going to break the power of House Tyrell. Cersei is down to a couple of hundred guardsmen. She has no army of her own in KL. That's why Kevan was dependent on Mace to march against Aegon.

Without an army of her own Cersei will never have any power of her own. She was paraded naked through the streets. Nobody in KL is going to follow her now. She could raise a new army in the Westerlands, but for that she has to get there. And that she will do by ship, meeting and marrying Euron on the way.

[Damon_Tor]

On 4/9/2020 at 10:14 AM, King Adrian Storm said:

I don't see how George will fit Dany's storyline in TWOW and ADOS. 

TWOW will have Dany taking control of the Dothraki, then returning to Meereen. She'll have to deal with all of the politics in Meereen before she can leave. She has to meet Tyrion, Victarion, Moqorro, and Marwyn. And after all of that, she'll finally sail to Westeros, which is gonna take a long time. I predict she'll get to Westeros at the end of the book. Now onto ADOS, she has to meet Euron who's in the South, Aegon who's in Kingslanding, and Jon who's in the North. Plus she has to fight the Others. How can she go all across Westeros in 1 book. 

My prediction is she reaches kingslanding, and has some sort of interaction with Aegon. Soon after she travels North to meet Jon and fight the Others, I believe there will be some sort of romance between the two, but how could he fit that in in time. After they defeat the others I think they'll travel south to Kingslanding, where Euron has killed Aegon and taken the throne for himself (a scouring of the shire, type of thing). 

GRRM has a big task here, and this is just for one character.

You're making several assumptions. Most notably, you seem to be under the impression that they're going to fight the Others. More damning, you're under the impression they're going fight them and win.

The Others aren't there to be "beaten". This is not a story about an evil army of inhuman monsters that need to set on fire. That's not how GRRM works, that's not what he values. If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention.

My money is the last book ends with one of the few surviving POV characters watching the last sun rise. It barely peeks over the horizon in the southern sky, then dips down moments later, and is never seen again, at least not in that character's lifetime. They don't "win". At best, some of the characters we care about are "safe" in castles with geothermal heat sources, but Winter with a capital "W" is here and when they say it's going to last a generation they mean exactly that. The ending is "bittersweet" in that we will have some understanding of what the various prophecies mean and the knowledge that they are in fruition, that they will someday bring the Spring, but we the readers, like our narrators, will not get to see it manifest: Spring is, after all, a dream.

And for the record, I seriously doubt Daenerys will be the one to live to that last peek of sunlight. The thematics demand she dies in childbirth, literal or figurative. Though she likely makes it JUST to the end.

But of course this is all purely academic: Winds of Winter will be released semi-complete by Martin's publisher after they settle their lawsuit against his estate, but we won't get even that for A Dream of Spring. So the ending will forever be for each of us what we want it to be. For many people, that means a big battle with dragons and the "bad guys" lose and "good guys" get medals and have a parade, and that's okay. Maybe it's for the best we never know how it ends. Maybe that was always the plan. Maybe that's even the point.

[BlackLightning]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yunkai should be dealt with by Dany's people in Slaver's Bay. Qarth belongs to Dany.

Victarion is very unlikely to become a dragonrider. Moqorro has taken over the Dragonbinder project and he is not there to make Victarion a great guy. The idea that the glory which awaits Vic according to Moqorro is something positive is a very naive belief ... you have to be as dumb as Vic to fall for that.

Ben and Tyrion are more realistic options. Ben has the blood, and Tyrion might, too, if he is Aerys' bastard. If not, then Dragonbinder could help him in the dragonrider department. There is a reason why Tyrion has been build up as a guy obsessed with dragons and dragonlore from the start. Without a dragon he'll have no role in the books. Neither Barristan nor any of Dany's other people are likely going to want to work with this freak. A dispossessed ugly dwarf guilty of kingslaying and kinslaying. Nobody could trust him and whatever knowledge he has would be useless until they reach Westeros. And might even be useless then because other people will be in charge who Tyrion knows nothing about.

I feel like Yunkai has done Qarth more harm than Dany Yeah, I've never could get aboard the "Tyrion is the bastard of Aerys II and Joanna Lannister" theory train. It ruins the poetic justice of Tywin's death and it almost validates people's (especially Cersei but everyone in general) fear and hatred of Tyrion. Nope. Nope. Nope.

I'm not denying all the buildup regarding Tyrion and dragons (he's actually writing a book on dragonlore, that should be interesting to read). I'm saying that Tyrion will be denied a dragon by Daenerys. The fact that no one -- except for maybe Daenerys and that's a huge stretch -- will trust him is precisely the reason why he won't be allowed a dragon. And he isn't physically fit enough to tame a dragon like Daenerys did in Daenerys IX. For that matter, I don't think we've ever seen or heard of a disabled person riding a dragon, especially not into war.

So yeah, Tyrion won't get a dragon but I think it will piss him off to no end. Tyrion has never been an objectively good person like Ned and Cat were and he has gotten much worse over the course of the series. I foresee him being a major villain in the vein of Littlefinger, Lysa or even Tywin by the end of the series. Think about it? Tyrion is the typical "nice guy" stereotype. Failing to get a dragon and failing to get "the girl" (Tysha, Sansa and/or Daenerys) is going to drive him over the edge and turn on Daenerys. I think he's one of her betrayals...either for gold or for love.

I don't think Tyrion is useless in Slaver's Bay. While I think he'll finesse his way to being the captain of a sellsword company and may even be able to bring one of the Free Cities under Daenerys' control, I think Tyrion's core role in Slaver's Bay is getting the dirt on the Sons of the Harpy and exposing/destroying them. Think about it. Tyrion is the only political savant in the area; he's the best man for the job in terms of court intrigue and backdoor conspiracies.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Hopefully the latter is not going to happen.

LOL....okay so how long do you think the Battle of Ice will take? Because I have NO clue. And what would Stannis do after Winterfell? Sit on his hands? Besiege the Dreadfort? Fall back on the Wall?

All I can predict is that Sansa is going to be back in Winterfell by the beginning of A Dream of Spring with an army of Valemen.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't know. Cannot see Brienne and Jaime being split up quickly. They are at Catelyn's mercy now. Why should she allow them to leave? Jaime will be forced to watch Emmon and Genna and Daven, etc. cruelly murdered or might even be forced to take an active role in all that. What Brienne is going to do will depend on what Catelyn wants her to do.

I mostly agree.

I think that there will be another Red Wedding type event and Jaime will be forced to participate and/or watch. I think it will be Daven's wedding; I don't want it will happen at Riverrun although it might. I'd much rather it happen at Casterly Rock. It's deviously ironic. Plus, we haven't seen Casterly Rock yet.

Catelyn can send Brienne almost immediately after she returns. Not saying she will let Brienne go but it's very likely. Brienne still has to find Sansa/Arya and she still has scores to settle with Stannis Baratheon.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Euron has no interest in Oldtown. He is just passing the time. He wants the Iron Throne. If he were to sack Oldtown he could kiss that desire goodbye because nobody committing atrocities in the second largest city of Westeros is going to get sufficient support in the rest of Westeros to win the throne.

Aeron is tied to the prow with leather straps. Leather widens when it gets wet. Aeron will wiggle free before Euron can sacrifice him (although Falia and her unborn child are likely to die) and jump into the sea. The Drowned God has saved him once, he can do it again. Perhaps he is going to drown, but Euron is not going to get the chance to sacrifice him.

Meh I don't know. Yes, he is passing time but why would Euron position himself directly against Oldtown. The Hightowers are a powerful family and they are right there. Euron could attack Sunspear or any other Dornish coastal town. Euron could raid the Arbor or the lands of House Costayne. Hell, he could've passed the time harrying the defenseless Riverlands.

Why Oldtown specifically? It has to interest Euron somehow. There's a lot of information in Oldtown that Euron would be interested in.

Sufficient support? Neither Euron nor any other Ironborn lord/king would never ever get "sufficient" support for the Iron Throne to begin with. Westeros would prefer to have Shireen over Euron. Euron's only chance of winning the Iron Throne is with blood and steel in a conquest.

I didn't know about the leather straps. I thought he was bound to the prow the same way Falia is.

Cersei will still be a POV while she is in the city, but she cannot stay there for long ... else Mace or Aegon will kill her. She tried to destroy Margaery and the Tyrells know that. Kevan is dead, so nobody can protect her from their wrath. She herself won't feel safe there, either, with Tyrion emerging from the walls yet again to murder Kevan and Pycelle. She and Tommen might be next, so they have to go someplace safe to lick their wounds, regroup, and come back to avenge themselves. Although I don't think she will succeed in getting Tommen out of the city ... instead she might get him killed.

Aegon should take the Iron Throne very shortly after he takes Storm's End - the Tyrells are going to send men against him and he has to win or he is dead. If he wins, then he should take the city very shortly afterwards.

There are other maesters in KL and the Red Keep, by the way.

Even if Mace and Margaery were to die ... Mace has 30,000-40,000 men in the city right now. Nobody is going to break the power of House Tyrell. Cersei is down to a couple of hundred guardsmen. She has no army of her own in KL. That's why Kevan was dependent on Mace to march against Aegon.

Without an army of her own Cersei will never have any power of her own. She was paraded naked through the streets. Nobody in KL is going to follow her now. She could raise a new army in the Westerlands, but for that she has to get there. And that she will do by ship, meeting and marrying Euron on the way.

I don't think Mace will kill her. Mace kills threats and he won't view her as a threat. So while Mace won't kill her, he won't let her leave. I don't think he will be able to now that Kevan and Pycelle are dead. Cersei will be a prime suspect. Besides, Cersei still has to go on trial.

I think George is going to turn the King's Landing theater into a courtroom crime drama reminiscent of film noir and haunted house horror. Between the murder mysteries, the trials, the arrival of an aggressive third-party, the fued between the Queen Mother and the Queen Consort, the question of where is Varys and when/where will he strike next, the curious case of Robert Strong, etc.

"Nobody is going to break the power of House Tyrell." Ha! Famous last words. Sounds familiar to "Who turns a wedding feast into an act of genocide?"

If Aegon beats the Tyrells, he still has to secure the rest of the Stormlands. As you said, Mace has approximately 40k soldiers on standby in King's Landing alone. The Tyrells are not a fresh army but they have not suffered any major losses during this whole episode.

I don't think Cersei will be pushed to marry Euron in Winds. I think she will in Dream but she'll do it out of desperation. Two of her three children are still alive which means that Cersei still has skin in the game and power to wield. Once Tommen and Myrcella die, Cersei will have to start over...which is where Euron comes on.

But you seem to feel differently. I don't think Aegon is going to take King's Landing that quickly and Cersei still is in a lot of legal trouble. If she gets out of it too quickly by using Gregor Clegane, then she faces another crackdown by the High Septon and Dorne will secede from the Seven Kingdoms. Her only chance is to make for Casterly Rock.