TWOW POV Chapter Count Powerball Lottery!

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, The Winged Griffin said:

After she gets the Dothraki, she will still have a lot of story to go through before the end of the book, if we assume TWOW will end with her landing on Dragonstone (or anywhere else in Westeros for that matter). The stroy could be told through the eyes of some other POV (most likely Tyrion) but I think 7 is plausible for her entire POV in TWOW, and maybe even a little short, given all that needs to be told, even if we have more than one POV to witness it all. 

We don't assume that. I don't even assume Daenerys is going to land on Dragonstone. Why should she bother with that island? If she has an army and a navy she will go for the big price - KL. Allies in Westeros she can look for while sitting on the Iron Throne - especially since that would make her much more attractive.

But the idea that Dany could get to Westeros in TWoW is completely impossible. There are far too many plots that have to be dealt with before that happens ... namely her even deciding she is going to go west now. And that's not going to be the first idea she is going to have after she has taken over the Dothraki. With them at her back she could conquer Essos, basically. Why bother with Westeros in such a setting?

The Targaryens were originally Valyrian dragonlords, and Valyria was in Essos. In a sense, Daenerys has come home. And the Dothraki are Essosi, too, who look down and don't give a damn about Westeros.

A lot of things have to happen before they decide to go to Westeros now. And you have to keep in mind how far it is from Vaes Dothrak to the Narrow Sea. And how many ships they will need to get across.

Vice versa, if Dany showed up at the end of TWoW then the story in Westeros wouldn't have progressed all that much, either. The story there will progress even slower since there are so many POVs there. And it is quite clear now that Dany will only show there when the situation in Westeros has consolidated some more, and there is the possibility to sort of build up a front against her. Which isn't the case at this point. While Aegon doesn't sit the throne there is no chance he wouldn't team up with Dany if she showed up. While Euron and Cersei don't have strong allies on the mainland they cannot really be a threat, either. While the Freys and Boltons are still around, their enemies would not even think about not allying with Daenerys.

And so on. There is no chance that this is going to be rushed.

We can, perhaps, expect that TWoW ends with Aegon on the Iron Throne. But even for that to happen things have to progress pretty fast. We should be already a quarter or third into the novel when we get what's now Arianne 3 - the chapter where she finally meets Aegon at Storm's End. And then they still have to fight the Tyrell army and win, the Dornishmen and others have to declare for Aegon, and they have to take KL.

[The Winged Griffin]

On 1/21/2021 at 10:53 PM, Lord Varys said:

We don't assume that. I don't even assume Daenerys is going to land on Dragonstone. Why should she bother with that island? If she has an army and a navy she will go for the big price - KL. Allies in Westeros she can look for while sitting on the Iron Throne - especially since that would make her much more attractive.

But the idea that Dany could get to Westeros in TWoW is completely impossible. There are far too many plots that have to be dealt with before that happens ... namely her even deciding she is going to go west now. And that's not going to be the first idea she is going to have after she has taken over the Dothraki. With them at her back she could conquer Essos, basically. Why bother with Westeros in such a setting?

The Targaryens were originally Valyrian dragonlords, and Valyria was in Essos. In a sense, Daenerys has come home. And the Dothraki are Essosi, too, who look down and don't give a damn about Westeros.

A lot of things have to happen before they decide to go to Westeros now. And you have to keep in mind how far it is from Vaes Dothrak to the Narrow Sea. And how many ships they will need to get across.

Vice versa, if Dany showed up at the end of TWoW then the story in Westeros wouldn't have progressed all that much, either. The story there will progress even slower since there are so many POVs there. And it is quite clear now that Dany will only show there when the situation in Westeros has consolidated some more, and there is the possibility to sort of build up a front against her. Which isn't the case at this point. While Aegon doesn't sit the throne there is no chance he wouldn't team up with Dany if she showed up. While Euron and Cersei don't have strong allies on the mainland they cannot really be a threat, either. While the Freys and Boltons are still around, their enemies would not even think about not allying with Daenerys.

And so on. There is no chance that this is going to be rushed.

We can, perhaps, expect that TWoW ends with Aegon on the Iron Throne. But even for that to happen things have to progress pretty fast. We should be already a quarter or third into the novel when we get what's now Arianne 3 - the chapter where she finally meets Aegon at Storm's End. And then they still have to fight the Tyrell army and win, the Dornishmen and others have to declare for Aegon, and they have to take KL.

If George's plan to end the series in two more books still holds (he hasn't given any indication that he was going to do otherwise, so we can only assume it is still his plan today), Daenerys has to land in Westeros by the end of TWOW, or the very beginning of ADOS, which would make little difference since ASOIAF is really one big story separated in different books. There is just too much that still needs to happen before the end of ASOIAF. Even one book seems short. Jon and Dany's romance would feel rushed, because it would have to begin and end within one single book. The Long Night would feel rushed, because it would have to span less than a single book, which is something that the show was specifically criticized for. So really with all that needs to happen after Daenerys's arrival, and despite everything that needs to happen before that, the best option would have to place her arrival in the middle of what's left to tell, namely at the end of TWOW/beginning of ADOS, so that what needs to happen before her invasion isn't told at length at the expense of what comes after, or vice-versa. 

I agree that the story would need to progress very quickly if everything is to fall into place before her arrival (fAegon on the Iron Throne, the Starks back in Winterfell, etc...), and that it will be difficult to make it fit within one book, but really there's no other way if ASOIAF is to end in two books. Of course if George declares that in the end the series will be 8 books long rather than seven, then everything changes, but if that happens, what little hope was left for ADOS would definitely be gone forever. 

As for the Dothraki not giving a damn, I would have to disagree. IIRC, they were ready to follow Khal Drogo to Westeros in AGOT, and he didn't have any dragons. Daenerys does, and she is all but confirmed to be the Stallion who mounts the world at this point, who is almost literally revered as a god by the Dothraki. And there is strong foreshadowing that she is going to attack a few cities along the way, most importantly Volantis, which is already a great promise of plunder for her Khalasar. They might not care about who sits on a distant throne on the other sides of the world, but the promise of punder and riches in Westeros might sway them, if Daenerys's aura as the Stallion who mounts the world and dragonrider isn't enough already.  

I also do not think she will have a shortage of ships. Victarion is bringing her the Iron Fleet, and Victarion specifically told his lieutenants to capture the Yunkish ships, because they will need them to get back home. Additionally, the Volantene Fleet is on its way, and the slaves will most likely revolt the moment they see Drogon, if they haven't already on the way to Slaver's Bay. So that's easily 300+ ships, and Daenerys can always capture the fleet of every slaver city she passes through on her way to Westeros. When you think about it, she can also order the Dothraki to go to Volantis and wait for her to arrive there via the Summer Sea. That way her fleet can get large enough along the way to take the Dothraki when the final jump across the Narrow Sea will have to be made.

If Dany even hesitates between conquering Essos or Westeros, Tyrion will most certainly convince her to go west. He is the only one in Meereen who knows about fAegon's invasion, and once he tells her about that, she will decide to go to Westeros rather than linger any longer in Slaver's Bay. 

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

If George's plan to end the series in two more books still holds (he hasn't given any indication that he was going to do otherwise, so we can only assume it is still his plan today), Daenerys has to land in Westeros by the end of TWOW, or the very beginning of ADOS, which would make little difference since ASOIAF is really one big story separated in different books. There is just too much that still needs to happen before the end of ASOIAF. Even one book seems short. Jon and Dany's romance would feel rushed, because it would have to begin and end within one single book. The Long Night would feel rushed, because it would have to span less than a single book, which is something that the show was specifically criticized for. So really with all that needs to happen after Daenerys's arrival, and despite everything that needs to happen before that, the best option would have to place her arrival in the middle of what's left to tell, namely at the end of TWOW/beginning of ADOS, so that what needs to happen before her invasion isn't told at length at the expense of what comes after, or vice-versa. 

I agree that the story would need to progress very quickly if everything is to fall into place before her arrival (fAegon on the Iron Throne, the Starks back in Winterfell, etc...), and that it will be difficult to make it fit within one book, but really there's no other way if ASOIAF is to end in two books. Of course if George declares that in the end the series will be 8 books long rather than seven, then everything changes, but if that happens, what little hope was left for ADOS would definitely be gone forever. 

As for the Dothraki not giving a damn, I would have to disagree. IIRC, they were ready to follow Khal Drogo to Westeros in AGOT, and he didn't have any dragons. Daenerys does, and she is all but confirmed to be the Stallion who mounts the world at this point, who is almost literally revered as a god by the Dothraki. And there is strong foreshadowing that she is going to attack a few cities along the way, most importantly Volantis, which is already a great promise of plunder for her Khalasar. They might not care about who sits on a distant throne on the other sides of the world, but the promise of punder and riches in Westeros might sway them, if Daenerys's aura as the Stallion who mounts the world and dragonrider isn't enough already.  

I also do not think she will have a shortage of ships. Victarion is bringing her the Iron Fleet, and Victarion specifically told his lieutenants to capture the Yunkish ships, because they will need them to get back home. Additionally, the Volantene Fleet is on its way, and the slaves will most likely revolt the moment they see Drogon, if they haven't already on the way to Slaver's Bay. So that's easily 300+ ships, and Daenerys can always capture the fleet of every slaver city she passes through on her way to Westeros. When you think about it, she can also order the Dothraki to go to Volantis and wait for her to arrive there via the Summer Sea. That way her fleet can get large enough along the way to take the Dothraki when the final jump across the Narrow Sea will have to be made.

If Dany even hesitates between conquering Essos or Westeros, Tyrion will most certainly convince her to go west. He is the only one in Meereen who knows about fAegon's invasion, and once he tells her about that, she will decide to go to Westeros rather than linger any longer in Slaver's Bay. 

It is a wrong approach to try to predict/figure out what kind of plot points a book has to cover for the series to be over in just two more novels.

I made that kind of thing, too, before ADwD. There I stated that ADwD has to end with the fall of the Wall for TWoW to have all of Westeros feel the threat the Others pose (meaning 'the winds of winter' have to actually touch all, from the Wall to Dorne), and for ADoS to bring the story around again, the good guys figuring out how to defeat the Others, do it, and then to have some kind of closure as all dangling plot threads are wrapped up.

But that went down the toilet spectacularly, didn't it?

If you want to go with a 'two books plan' then there actually can be no struggle between Daenerys and anyone in Westeros - or no great fight against the Others. Both would never fit into two books.

Hence the obvious fact that the series cannot be wrapped up in just two more books.

As for the Dothraki - Drogo wanted to invade Westeros at the end, but he was just the leader of one khalasar ... and he died. The Dothraki have their own prophecy about the Stallion Who Mounts the World and that doesn't involve Westeros. Daenerys will be that prophesied hero should she take over the Dothraki, so she also has to give the Dothraki what they want from that hero ... or they won't follow him/cast her down. It is like with the Jewish Messiah - that guy is supposed to be the King of Israel. If somebody anointed as such would demand they conquer Panama or Thailand his followers would be more than just confused.

The image the Dothraki have of Westeros is that this is a far away land of little significance. They don't view it as a huge continent but rather a couple of small islands.

Of course, they will eventually have sufficient ships, but they would be at different points, and especially the Iron Fleet shouldn't be able to carry that much people (there are already Ironborn on board, after all). But this story is so huge now that this kind of plot cannot be just pushed through in a couple of chapters.

And while Daenerys is believed to be dead by the gang in Slaver's Bay nobody is going to make plans for a conquest of Westeros ... or rather if they do that, they would make that for themselves. If Victarion, Brown Ben, Tyrion, or anybody else became a dragonrider they would try to forge kingdoms of their own, not act as Dany's stalwart servants.

Even once she comes back she cannot really count on the loyalty of such dragonriders, especially not if they get a decent taste of power before Dany is back from the (apparent) dead.

As for Aegon - he isn't really a reason why Dany should get going. His very existence could free her of the obligation to bother with Westeros at all. She is obliged to avenge her father and brother and do what Viserys III could not. If another Targaryen shows up and does that then she is actually free to build her own empire in Essos with the Dothraki. Keep in mind that Daenerys never was in Westeros, has no memories of that place, and isn't particularly interested in things there. If her first real news of Aegon are 'King Aegon VI Targaryen has just conquered the Iron Throne' then she will be relieved, not irritated.

And Tyrion is a very unlikely character to win Dany's trust. He is the brother of her father's murderer, and a convicted kingslayer and kinslayer himself. Not to mention his ugly looks which make him look like an evil monster rather than a loyal adviser. If Tyrion were to become a dragonrider Daenerys might get him to listen to what he has to say. But chances are very low that she is ever going to trust him ... unless she believes he is her long-lost half-brother. That could change her mind. In any other scenario she would either command his execution, send him away, or just ignore him.

The guy who could get Dany to go west is going to be Archmaester Marwyn and his story - but he has first to find her. And that is going to take time and convincing.

[The Winged Griffin]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And Tyrion is a very unlikely character to win Dany's trust. He is the brother of her father's murderer, and a convicted kingslayer and kinslayer himself. Not to mention his ugly looks which make him look like an evil monster rather than a loyal adviser. If Tyrion were to become a dragonrider Daenerys might get him to listen to what he has to say. But chances are very low that she is ever going to trust him ... unless she believes he is her long-lost half-brother. That could change her mind. In any other scenario she would either command his execution, send him away, or just ignore him.

The guy who could get Dany to go west is going to be Archmaester Marwyn and his story - but he has first to find her. And that is going to take time and convincing.

Tyrion doesn't need to be in Daenerys's confidence to tell her that Aegon has launched an invasion. All he needs is 5 minutes with her, and even if she doesn't initially plan to attack Westeros, the idea will have been planted by Tyrion, and indeed people like Marwyn (and Barristan if he survives that long) will make it grow until she has no other choice but to accept that she must go back to Westeros. But of course it all depends on how the situation in Slaver's Bay is going to be resolved. 

 

I also think that George knows he doesn't have as much time left to finish ASOIAF as he'd like, and that's maybe part of why TWOW is so late, beside the fact that there are many POVs meeting, many different storylines etc... He is trying to get it all to fit the two books mark that he fixed. Or at least he has tried for a time, and maybe he finally decided to change his plans, but if more books were to be planned before ADOS, I feel like he'd already have told us, because he'd have to announce it anyway when TWOW comes out so why delay the inevitable? 

But yes I definitely agree with you: The series cannot be wrapped up in two books. 

[Lord Varys]

44 minutes ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Tyrion doesn't need to be in Daenerys's confidence to tell her that Aegon has launched an invasion. All he needs is 5 minutes with her, and even if she doesn't initially plan to attack Westeros, the idea will have been planted by Tyrion, and indeed people like Marwyn (and Barristan if he survives that long) will make it grow until she has no other choice but to accept that she must go back to Westeros. But of course it all depends on how the situation in Slaver's Bay is going to be resolved. 

I don't buy the idea that Dany is going to go to Westeros just because somebody tells her about Aegon. There has to be more to it than that. This could have worked if Tyrion had reached her before she flew away on Drogon ... but he didn't, and George very deliberately made it so that they would not talk before she went back to the Dothraki.

44 minutes ago, The Winged Griffin said:

I also think that George knows he doesn't have as much time left to finish ASOIAF as he'd like, and that's maybe part of why TWOW is so late, beside the fact that there are many POVs meeting, many different storylines etc... He is trying to get it all to fit the two books mark that he fixed. Or at least he has tried for a time, and maybe he finally decided to change his plans, but if more books were to be planned before ADOS, I feel like he'd already have told us, because he'd have to announce it anyway when TWOW comes out so why delay the inevitable? 

But yes I definitely agree with you: The series cannot be wrapped up in two books. 

George just doesn't seem to be able to predict how much chapters it is going to take him to put the story forward. And he doesn't change his writing to race through events, turning chapters into semi-outlines. He wanted Dany to leave Meereen on Drogon rather early in ADwD, but that event was pushed back further and further. The Red Wedding should have been in book 1, not book 3.

Thus chances are about zero that TWoW is now going to be basically the first half of the ending of the series.