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TWOW POV Chapter Count Powerball Lottery!


The Map Guy

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On 7/19/2020 at 7:40 AM, Werthead said:

This topic does indirectly show the problem GRRM is facing. ADWD had 71 chapters divided between 16 POV characters (not counting the prologue/epilogue) and that hit the absolute ceiling GRRM and his publishers imposed on themselves. TWoW will probably have 20 POV characters and even if many of them only have 1 or 2 chapters, that's going to eat up a lot of space fast, especially if we assume that the likes of Daenerys and Tyrion (and maybe Arya) will have quite a lot of chapters as major characters (Jon might only have 1, or even 0 if he doesn't "return" until the end of the novel).

What could help is if GRRM returns to his shorter chapter lengths from back in the day. ADWD did show a drop in chapter length from AFFC so that was headed in the right direction, but he was still a way off from his AGoT average.

  1. A Game of Thrones: 4082 (298k in 73 chapters)
  2. A Clash of Kings: 4657 (326k in 70 chapters)
  3. A Storm of Swords: 5171 (424k in 82 chapters)
  4. A Feast for Crows: 6522 (300k in 46 chapters)
  5. A Dance with Dragons: 5781 (422k in 73 chapters)

That's unfortunate, IMO.  I thought the trend toward one and two off POV chapters negatively affected the flow of the story, and am sorry to hear that this flaw apparently will not only not be corrected but will expand.  I'd also be sad to see another ill conceived 'split' type of situation where a major character would have 0 or 1 chapter in a book that people have waited a decade [or more] for.  I agree it would be a huge plus if GRRM returned to his earlier form of shorter chapters.

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On 7/19/2020 at 7:40 AM, Werthead said:

TWoW will probably have 20 POV characters and even if many of them only have 1 or 2 chapters, that's going to eat up a lot of space fast

It will be fine!

We are in a new digital age now. The copies of ASOIAF I use is my digital Amazon Kindle copy. All five books and thousands of pages at the palm of my hand. I can highlight stuff in it too.

And besides TWOW will be the most anticipated book in history because of the ~10 year wait, the massive stardom from HBO and the extremely disappointing D&D fan fiction (once we read GRRM's TWOW twist, we can throw D&D's trash out the window). The actual canon TWOW paper-book will probably be given special permission to be physically reinforced, or separated into two physical books (hopefully released at the same time). So be hopeful!

And don't forget some POV characters also share a geographical location together. For example: there could be 2 Brienne Chapters and 2 Jaime Chapters ... but it is 4 chapters of the same plot-line.

On 7/19/2020 at 7:40 AM, Werthead said:

What could help is if GRRM returns to his shorter chapter lengths from back in the day.

We want more TWOW! Not less!

On 7/20/2020 at 9:15 AM, BreakinTheWall said:

E.g. if you say a total of 100 chapters each averaging 100 pages, that would make a book that's 10,000 pages long. Obviously this is wrong. Well, that's not my poll, but maybe, just maybe, @The Map Guy would like to update the OP so as to reflect this new dimension?

I think that will be difficult. There will be different versions of TWOW to be released. There may be a standard book with xxxx pages, a special edition book with yyyy pages, and definitely a digital version with zzzz pages.
Predicting page-count is inconsistent between different versions. You can see clearly here.
Predicting word-count is more accurate ... BUT who is going to count each word? lol 

Predicting chapter-count is accurate and quick. You don't even need to read the book yet to determine a winner.

Hopefully more people will participate in this silly TWOW game!

On 7/20/2020 at 10:32 AM, Mithras said:

If GRRM writes too many shorter chapters, we might expect a lot of them having substandard quality endpoints

Agreed. Quality! Not low Quantity!

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Quote

We are in a new digital age now. The copies of ASOIAF I use is my digital Amazon Kindle copy. All five books and thousands of pages at the palm of my hand. I can highlight stuff in it too.

More than 80% of book sales are still of physical copies (and ebook sales have in fact diminished in the last three years in market share, not grown larger), so the physical limitations of what they can bind will still determine the limits of the book. That's certainly higher than it was for ADWD, but not a huge amount more.

This is also a useful resource for how many POV characters and chapters for TWoW have already been confirmed:

Prologue: (maybe Forley Prester) 1

Arya: 4

Tyrion: 3

Barristan: 3

Arianne: 3

Melisandre: 2

Theon: 2

Aeron: 2

Areo Hotah: 2

Cersei: 2

Asha: 2

Jon Connington: 2

Sansa: 1

Victarion: 1

Bran: 1

Daenerys: 1

Davos: 1

Confirmed Chapters: 33

 

That leaves Jon Snow, Brienne, Jaime and Samwell without any confirmed chapters. Of those four, I doubt we'll hear about any Jon Snow or Jaime chapters before release (since their fates are in doubt). I think it's pretty obvious that Samwell will have a few chapters.

 

My final count would be: 

Prologue: (maybe Forley Prester) 1

Arya: 7

Tyrion: 7

Barristan: 5

Arianne: 4

Melisandre: 3

Theon: 4

Aeron: 4

Areo Hotah: 2

Cersei: 2

Asha: 2

Jon Connington: 4

Sansa: 3

Victarion: 3

Bran: 3

Daenerys: 7

Davos: 3

Brienne: 2

Jaime: 2

Samwell: 5

Jon Snow: 1

Total Chapters: 74 (the same as AGoT and ASoS)

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Aeron Greyjoy 3 
Areo Hotah 2 
Arianne Martell 4 
Arya Stark 7 
Asha Greyjoy 3 
Barristan Selmy 3 
Bran Stark 5 
Brienne of Tarth 3 
Cersei Lannister 9 
Daenerys Targaryen 6 
Davos Seaworth 4 
Jaime Lannister 4 
Jon Snow 1 
Jon Connington 4 
Melisandre 2 
Samwell Tarly 8 
Sansa Stark 6 
Theon Greyjoy 3 
Tyrion Lannister 5 
Victarion Greyjoy 3

TOTAL 85 (Prologue and Epilogue doesn't count, right?)

PROLOGUE Lancel Lannister

EPILOGUE Willas Tyrell (or someone else in Highgarden if that sort of thing is allowed in game)

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16 hours ago, Werthead said:

My final count would be: 

Prologue: (maybe Forley Prester) 1

Arya: 7

Tyrion: 7

Barristan: 5

Arianne: 4

Melisandre: 3

Theon: 4

Aeron: 4

Areo Hotah: 2

Cersei: 2

Asha: 2

Jon Connington: 4

Sansa: 3

Victarion: 3

Bran: 3

Daenerys: 7

Davos: 3

Brienne: 2

Jaime: 2

Samwell: 5

Jon Snow: 1

Total Chapters: 74 (the same as AGoT and ASoS)

ASos has 82 chapters - 80 POV.  I assume you meant ADwD which has 73 with 71 POV.

Sansa and Bran get less chapters than Aeron Damphair and Jon Connington?  Yikes!!  Gods, I hope not!  (Sorry, couldn't resist commenting)  Sansa and Bran are main characters.  They're going to need enough chapters so they can actually do something. 

Speaking for myself, I have minimal interest in Feast/Dance redux emphasizing secondary characters, subplots, and collateral storylines.  I'll read it, but might not enjoy it as much as I ordinarily would.  If he's going to finish any time soon, he needs to get back to basics. 

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On 7/23/2020 at 7:04 AM, Werthead said:

More than 80% of book sales are still of physical copies

I guess people enjoy physically filling up their personal book shelves lol
I just find reading off my phone is a lot easier ... my preference.

On 7/23/2020 at 7:04 AM, Werthead said:

This is also a useful resource for how many POV characters and chapters for TWoW have already been confirmed:

Thanks! I was going to lose some points in my own lottery, I had Davos at "0". I need to edit my list!

On 7/23/2020 at 7:04 AM, Werthead said:

Jon Snow: 1

Wow Jon Snow at 1??
I understand the case for Jon Snow to have a handful of chapters.
I understand the case for Jon Snow to have 0 like Catelyn->Lady Stoneheart.

1 is such an odd number!

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42 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

I guess people enjoy physically filling up their personal book shelves lol
I just find reading off my phone is a lot easier ... my preference.

Thanks! I was going to lose some points in my own lottery, I had Davos at "0". I need to edit my list!

Wow Jon Snow at 1??
I understand the case for Jon Snow to have a handful of chapters.
I understand the case for Jon Snow to have 0 like Catelyn->Lady Stoneheart.

1 is such an odd number!

I think there's a good chance of 0: Melisandre becomes our POV at the Wall and Jon only wakes up in the epilogue or the last chapter. Or Mel tries to save him and we don't know what's going on and then the last chapter is Jon's POV of being dead/warged into Ghost and then wakes up (or we get Ghost POV chapters!).

Although that's dramatically satisfying there's also the argument that George hasn't got time to indulge that and has to get Jon back into the action straight away. So maybe he has 8-12 chapters and his first chapter is waking up and everyone's like, "Oh, we thought you were done for, but apparently it wasn't as bad as that" and later on it turns out he really was dead and Mel brought him back.

It could go in any direction, especially is George wants to mess around with fans based on their knowledge of the TV show.

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On 7/26/2020 at 4:32 PM, Werthead said:

we get Ghost POV chapters!

Nice! I hope George ain't afraid of writing no Ghost chapters.

I can picture it now ... a chapter in TWOW that is simply named "Ghost" 

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On 7/26/2020 at 10:32 PM, Werthead said:

Jon only wakes up in the last chapter.

that's dramatically satisfying

Having put Jon at one not looking previous answers I would put my reasoning like that ;)

Satisfaction and anticipation aside, GRRM has a very good reason to do this, he has to tie up bunch of other plot lines and concentrate characters so he can prepare the endgame in ADOS. In-novel time is forgiving enough especially since AFFC and ADWD muddled the timelines (not a bad thing, it adds to the series that chapters are unpredictable and ambiguous chronologically) but page count is not, he has to do this in TWOW. 

Now that I read your predictions I really wish I thought of Forley Prester, it would be great prologue, he is toast when BwB/Blackfish rescue Edmure, on the other hand one of the Pro/Epi characters is bound to get out alive, GRRM said he likes to break the rules referring specifically to this.

On the other hand there is no chance there will be that much chapters in Greater Meereen area as you predicted, I would like it, I love Barristan and Tyrion, but no chance 5 and 7 and 7 Daenerys and 3 Victarion that's 22 in the region that should be tapering down and out.

One more thing about the whole prediction thing, not just you (I did it as well to some degree) is chapter balance, everyone looked to balance it by characters or region, while previous books were not at all like that, there will be some character with 10+ chapters but it's next to impossible to guess which one, so many played it safe. Anyway I hope we see who won soon :D

 

 

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7 hours ago, Mithras said:

I don't think GRRM has the luxury of keeping Jon at the fridge for the entirety of TWOW, even if he wants to. In that case, Jon should better stay dead.

He doesn't necessarily have to be in the fridge; it's possible he does come back, but we don't have any POV chapters and we only seem him externally. GRRM once said he had a rule that characters who come back from the dead don't get POV chapters again, but of course Jon's circumstances are significantly different from Cat's (which is why I also don't discount the possibility of us getting "Ghost" POV chapters instead).

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16 hours ago, Werthead said:

He doesn't necessarily have to be in the fridge; it's possible he does come back, but we don't have any POV chapters and we only seem him externally. GRRM once said he had a rule that characters who come back from the dead don't get POV chapters again, but of course Jon's circumstances are significantly different from Cat's (which is why I also don't discount the possibility of us getting "Ghost" POV chapters instead).

I can't see how GRRM can reconcile "human heart in a conflict with itself" with an undead Jon or non-POV Jon. If he wants to keep telling the story of such a major character in line with his credo as a writer, Jon should quickly return to the story with his own POV, as it happened in the show.

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7 hours ago, Mithras said:

I can't see how GRRM can reconcile "human heart in a conflict with itself" with an undead Jon or non-POV Jon. If he wants to keep telling the story of such a major character in line with his credo as a writer, Jon should quickly return to the story with his own POV, as it happened in the show.

I agree. I cannot recall any character in the books that ended in a cliffhanger (possibly dead) who actually died. All other characters were clearly dead. If Jon Snow is actually dead, he will not be dead for very long, or he will stay dead. A wolf (real wolf, ie., Ghost) is not in conflict with itself. It/he is a wolf. I cannot say that we won't get a Ghost chapter, but it will not be more than one chapter.

And if Jon is actually dead and resurrected, this will happen within the first 75-150 pages of TWOW. The same if he is just in a coma state like Bran in AGOT. And then there is the possibility that he is dead and stays dead. This (all of these options) will be resolved fairly quickly - 75 to 150 pages. Regardless what happens to Jon Snow, and if there is a Ghost chapter - it will not be more than one chapter.

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  • 1 month later...

1. Aeron Greyjoy - 3

2. Areo Hotah - 1

3. Arianne Martell - 5

4. Arya Stark - 6

5. Asha Greyjoy - 4

6. Barristan Selmy - 3

7. Bran Stark - 4

8. Brienne of Tarth - 4

9. Cersei Lannister - 8

10. Daenerys Targaryen - 8

11. Davos Seaworth - 3

12. Jaime Lannister - 6

13. Jon Snow - 7

14. Jon Connington - 3

15. Melisandre - 2

16. Samwell Tarly - 5

17. Sansa Stark - 6

18. Theon Greyjoy - 4

19. Tyrion Lannister - 9

20. Victarion Greyjoy - 2

 

  • 93
  • Prologue - Edmure Tully
  • Epilogue - Mance Rayder
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  • 3 months later...

1. Aeron Greyjoy: 2

2. Areo Hotah: 3

3. Arianne Martell: 5

4. Arya Stark: 5

5. Asha Greyjoy: 3

6. Barristan Selmy: 4

7. Bran Stark: 3

8. Brienne of Tarth: 3

9. Cersei Lannister: 6

10. Daenerys Targaryen: 5

11. Davos Seaworth: 3

12. Jaime Lannister: 4

13. Jon Snow: 4

14. Jon Connington: 4

15. Melisandre: 3

16. Samwell Tarly: 3

17. Sansa Stark: 3

18. Theon Greyjoy: 3

19. Tyrion Lannister: 6

20. Victarion Greyjoy: 2

 

Prologue: Westerlands

Epilogue: no epilogue

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  • 3 weeks later...

I've put a lot of thought into this. I'm thinking this has to be an absolutely massive book, the longest in the series by a good deal...if he's serious about finishing it in two, that is, which I really, really hope. Anyway, here's my best prediction:

Daenerys - 8

Tyrion - 8

Cersei - 6

Jon - 6

Arya - 5

Sansa - 5

Samwell - 5

Arianne - 5

Asha - 5

Victarion - 4

Jaime - 4

Bran - 4

Davos - 4

Melisandre - 3

Connington - 3

Barristan - 3

Theon - 3

Areo - 3

Aeron - 2

Brienne - 1

Prologue (Ser Forley Prester) - 1

Total = 88 chapters

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On 7/28/2020 at 9:27 PM, Werthead said:

He doesn't necessarily have to be in the fridge; it's possible he does come back, but we don't have any POV chapters and we only seem him externally. GRRM once said he had a rule that characters who come back from the dead don't get POV chapters again, but of course Jon's circumstances are significantly different from Cat's (which is why I also don't discount the possibility of us getting "Ghost" POV chapters instead).

It's not a rule: it only happened once with Catelyn. It's the same with people saying kings don't get any POVs: It may have been true in AGOT-ASOS, but Daenerys is now a queen, and so is Cersei. 

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1 hour ago, The Winged Griffin said:

It's not a rule: it only happened once with Catelyn. It's the same with people saying kings don't get any POVs: It may have been true in AGOT-ASOS, but Daenerys is now a queen, and so is Cersei. 

Cersei is the Queen Regent, as she has been forcibly rather reminded on many occasions; Joffrey and Tommen were the actual rulers. Daenerys has claimed the title of Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, but so far has not proven herself able to secure control of Slaver's Bay, and lost one of the two cities that did acknowledge her as queen (and the other is looking shaky, even if she is expected to prevail). The "rule" remains extant, at least to this point; if the TV show does point the way and Jon, Sansa and Bran become rulers in their own right, then obviously the rule will have turned out to have been more of a guideline.

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7 hours ago, Werthead said:

Cersei is the Queen Regent, as she has been forcibly rather reminded on many occasions; Joffrey and Tommen were the actual rulers. Daenerys has claimed the title of Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, but so far has not proven herself able to secure control of Slaver's Bay, and lost one of the two cities that did acknowledge her as queen (and the other is looking shaky, even if she is expected to prevail). The "rule" remains extant, at least to this point; if the TV show does point the way and Jon, Sansa and Bran become rulers in their own right, then obviously the rule will have turned out to have been more of a guideline.

The rule always was to write not from the POV of people who are already rulers when the story starts, not to never write from the POV of people who are already POVs and will be molded into rulers by the plot.

Speculation about chapter numbers are very tough at that point - as for the beginning of the novel it is clear that the focus will be on the action of the battles, which means quite a few Theon, Asha, Tyrion, Barristan, and Victarion chapters ... followed by Connington and Arianne chapters depicting the action in the Stormlands and, eventuall, we assume, in the Crownlands and KL.

While we have no idea in what direction Jaime/Brienne are going or how prominent the Stark girls are going to be featured in the plot of the novel it is impossible to guess at that.

Sam and Davos and Areo should still get a decent number of chapters because their stories have to catch up with the other characters ... and all three have a somewhat urgent mission fulfill. Bran should also have more chapters than last time since he is straggling behind, too. And he is a character who might get involved witih the action everywhere in Westeros.

I cannot see seven chapters for Daenerys. That is way too much for her isolated story at that point, especially if she were to reconnect with the Slaver's Bay gang at one point. George might conclude her story with her taking over all the Dothraki - which could be a pretty long story, starting with her as Jhaqo's prisoner/slave, then her being forced to join the dosh khaleen, her facing opposition there, her convincing some of her fellow dosh khaleen to see things her way, the calling of a big meeting of all the khalasars at Vaes Dothrak, and then the final overcoming of all resistance to her becoming the ruler of all Dothraki.

This isn't a plot to be rushed, of course, but it could be done five chapters, I'd say. There is no need for seven.

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37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I cannot see seven chapters for Daenerys. That is way too much for her isolated story at that point, especially if she were to reconnect with the Slaver's Bay gang at one point. George might conclude her story with her taking over all the Dothraki - which could be a pretty long story, starting with her as Jhaqo's prisoner/slave, then her being forced to join the dosh khaleen, her facing opposition there, her convincing some of her fellow dosh khaleen to see things her way, the calling of a big meeting of all the khalasars at Vaes Dothrak, and then the final overcoming of all resistance to her becoming the ruler of all Dothraki.

This isn't a plot to be rushed, of course, but it could be done five chapters, I'd say. There is no need for seven.

After she gets the Dothraki, she will still have a lot of story to go through before the end of the book, if we assume TWOW will end with her landing on Dragonstone (or anywhere else in Westeros for that matter). The stroy could be told through the eyes of some other POV (most likely Tyrion) but I think 7 is plausible for her entire POV in TWOW, and maybe even a little short, given all that needs to be told, even if we have more than one POV to witness it all. 

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