For WHOm the Bell Tolls - Covid-19 #11

[Arakan]

Germany is opening up again, starting from April 20th, Bavaria (my home state) a week later, albeit in a controlled manner. Shops up to 800 sqm, some school classes etc. 

Large public gatherings not possible until August 31st. Which means no Volksfeste this summer which is sad but was to be expected. Oktoberfest will also be cancelled with 99.99% probability. 
 

Next step would be outdoor gastronomy. I think end of May seems reasonable albeit in a controlled manner again. 
 

Wearing of masks is highly recommended when shopping but not mandatory. I hope we will fix the mask supply issue until end of May. I am optimistic. 

[Jeor]

5 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

How feasible or not that is probably depends on how long it takes to find a vaccine though. If we're talking 12 months or so that might be a viable option. If it's 3 or 4 years is that something the New Zealand economy can take? I don't know for sure but I'd expect it's probably not.

 

If it was only 12-18 months, then it's a viable plan and one that Australian and NZ politicians will be keen on pursuing. Through the tyranny of distance and not wanting to rely on distant international supply chains, both nations are actually reasonably self-sufficient. I'm not as sure about NZ, but Australia is a net exporter of food/agriculture as well as raw materials and energy (coal, groan). The manufacturing sector is not so good but in terms of the basics of water, food and energy, we're covered.

But whether we stamp COVID-19 out completely or not, I suspect both Australia and New Zealand are going to keep their borders closed for a long time, potentially for the rest of 2020 if not beyond that. The way the virus is tracking in both countries is fine at the moment; no sustained community transmission and the overall caseload is continue to go down. Opening the borders risks imported second waves, which is an extreme danger.

The borders aren't actually closed, but the requirement for a 14 day quarantine upon entry to the country is almost as good as closed and almost all international airlines have ceased operations to our countries because there is zero demand. I assume they'll still allow cargo into the country.

[Raja]

15 minutes ago, Jeor said:

I think the game plan for New Zealand (and perhaps later on down the track in Australia, which is also now getting down to low double digits in new cases) is that once the virus is stamped out completely (perhaps pie in the sky, but I think not impossible), close the borders indefinitely until a vaccine is found

 

I know Australia has a 6 month ban in place at the moment but I think if that gets lifted, it'll go something like mandatory quarantine for all travelers into the country ( if that isn't being done already) & using contact and tracing for the low level of new cases that arise. I think the norm will become 14 day quarantine & the hope that the the number of new cases will chronically be at a low level allowing for contact tracing.

[Jeor]

Just now, Raja said:

I know Australia has a 6 month ban in place at the moment but I think if that gets lifted, it'll go something like mandatory quarantine for all travelers into the country ( if that isn't being done already) & using contact and tracing for the low level of new cases that arise. I think the norm will become 14 day quarantine & the hope that the the number of new cases will chronically be at a low level allowing for contact tracing. 

Yes, it's currently a 14 day quarantine for anyone coming into the country. The number of people coming into the country is very low - pretty much only repatriated Australians who are then quarantined before they're released back into the wild.

[Raja]

Just now, Jeor said:

Yes, it's currently a 14 day quarantine for anyone coming into the country. The number of people coming into the country is very low - pretty much only repatriated Australians who are then quarantined before they're released back into the wild.

I wonder what they're doing for people with valid work visas for Australia that are currently abroad, because technically they count as long term residents.

[Jeor]

1 minute ago, Raja said:

I wonder what they're doing for people with valid work visas for Australia that are currently abroad, because technically they count as long term residents.

Yeah, there are more than a few wrinkles. Australians studying or working abroad are in a particular bind, too. I'm not quite sure what the government policy is on all the visas etc.

Probably more effective than the policy is the actual lack of travel options. Only yesterday the federal government agreed to underwrite a skeleton domestic network because Qantas and Virgin (the two main airlines) were about to ground their entire fleet. But the international routes are basically non-existent now, Qantas and Virgin have both cancelled all international flights and most international airlines have also cancelled, so it's virtually impossible for Australians abroad to come home now, or internationals to return to their home country, unless the government organises a repatriation effort (which they are doing through Qantas for certain places).

[Raja]

19 minutes ago, Jeor said:

Yeah, there are more than a few wrinkles. Australians studying or working abroad are in a particular bind, too. I'm not quite sure what the government policy is on all the visas etc.

Yeah - I know Australia has travel exemptions too for medical personnel too ( I have a friend there who's a doctor that is trying to see if he can make it out) 

Also, re: the discussion about contact tracing - it's certainly not a new idea, neither is testing & contact tracing as a way out of this current pandemic ( those two things were the first things that the WHO mentioned in their recommendations in the 40 page report released to the world in February) - obviously doing it digitally is what South Korea & China have done, and that is faster, but we've been doing this stuff before then too the old fashioned way.

I think it is a little simplistic to say 'we're in the west, we can't do this stuff' - here's Massachusetts' plan for contact tracing - it's obviously going to be slower, but perhaps a way forward ( Ireland have hired a 1000 people to contact trace as well) - we'll have to see how it goes and how it can compete & mitigate the spread - maybe a combination of manual & digital might be something that could work?

 

[Crixus]

3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I think were there to be a voluntary app I think a lot of people will sign up to use it, I can imagine it becoming a thing. 
 

Im interested in the process though. I’d say I think I’ve got the virus, I then what? Mark it down in the app, they send me a test? They are tracking my movements from the moment I install the app?

There might be some who refuse the app for privacy reasons but I think there is a general sense that the public wants to do what it takes to stop the spread 

I live in Dubai (UAE) and they've done over 650,000 tests here in a population of around 10 million. They've recently launched an app here too, voluntary (for now). If you activate it, it can trace who you've been in touch with and alert you if someone among that lot has tested positive. 

This in the midst of a lockdown that's been underway for nearly a month: I need a permit to walk to the grocery store, or even the pharmacy. 

 

[Heartofice]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/men-are-much-more-likely-to-die-from-coronavirus-but-why

I know it’s been talked about before that men were more likely to die than women from the virus, but I initially assumed that was just behavioural. There does seem to be research that men are just less prepared for viral infections in the way women are biologically.

[Zorral]

9 hours ago, Fury Resurrected said:

I have had many pampered and beloved house cats who were stone cold killers. My cat growing up loved to be 26 and used to drop full grown rabbits and squirrels on our feet. I had a very small former feral about 3lbs names Chupacabra who used to bring rabbits larger than herself to my 140lb dog. I had another cat who grabbed a flying bat out of the air in a single leap. Domestic cats also destroy songbird populations to this day. Make no mistake, these cute little babies are still top predators and they convince you otherwise because they are masters of manipulation.

Some of them still have it, you betcha.

But generally when it comes to a lot of currently domestic breeds of most animals I wouldn't want to put them up against their traditional prey and enemies.

Ye olde collie guardian of flocks and herds in Scotland way back when could and did go up against wolves -- that deep, thick, multi-layered ruff was its armor against a wolf's great weapon, its jaws and teeth.  But your average show collies of these days, probably not.

Just like all these very popular pushed in faces of show breed cats -- they can hardly breathe now, much less able to intake enough oxygen to catch a mouse, or even eat it with their drastically foreshortened jaws.

[Zorral]

How can anywhere in the US reopen when we still don't even have any testing, right here in the epicenter of it?  Honestly I can't even see it working by September, when more than likely another wave will begin rolling.  I honestly don't know how we gonna stay either sane or safe for that long.

[Mudguard]

31 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Some of them still have it, you betcha.

But generally when it comes to a lot of currently domestic breeds of most animals I wouldn't want to put them up against their traditional prey and enemies.

Ye olde collie guardian of flocks and herds in Scotland way back when could and did go up against wolves -- that deep, thick, multi-layered ruff was its armor against a wolf's great weapon, its jaws and teeth.  But your average show collies of these days, probably not.

Just like all these very popular pushed in faces of show breed cats -- they can hardly breathe now, much less able to intake enough oxygen to catch a mouse, or even eat it with their drastically foreshortened jaws.

I have a border collie mix (cross bred with other herding type dogs, so from working stock) with a thick ruff around his neck that has shielded him from damage both times he's been attacked by other dogs, once by a husky and another time by a white German Shepherd like dog.  There was slobber on his ruff, but no damage to the skin, so it really works!

[Kalbear]

45 minutes ago, Zorral said:

How can anywhere in the US reopen when we still don't even have any testing, right here in the epicenter of it?  Honestly I can't even see it working by September, when more than likely another wave will begin rolling.  I honestly don't know how we gonna stay either sane or safe for that long.

They can reopen, it'll just cause a lot of people to die. The US is absurdly behind on testing on every single level, and it is a testament to the dysfunction of local, state, federal, private and NGO authorities all trying to compete against each other and all fucking each other over. 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

We'll reopen because of the obvious reason, rich people need even more money! 

[Fragile Bird]

The issue of re-activation, or re-infection, seems pretty serious. Were those cases in South Korea just errors in the first place?

The other big issue is the length of time Covid-19 stays in your system. In Canada, as far as I know, every province requires you to pass two positive tests before you can be declared virus-free. But there are so many people who obviously have the virus, simply dealing with it by self-isolation, who will never be tested. And secondly, there are reports from many places that people have the virus 30 days after their symptoms ended, and this morning I heard about someone in northern Italy who, 55 days after his symptoms ended, has still tested positive for Covid-19. Can these people still pass it on? Or get sick again? There are reports of people going through a second round of symptoms.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Leave the damn cats alone.

[Werthead]

Early evidence that COVID-19 is causing significant damage to the kidneys in many cases, and to the heart and liver in a smaller number of cases. Chinese and New York reports that a large number of COVID-19 patients are requiring dialysis or other treatments for kidney disease.

More research ongoing to see what is going on there.

[Winterfell is Burning]

It took a little longer than expected, but this afternoon Bolsonaro fired his Health minister during the pandemic, for committing the utmost crime- becoming much more popular than he is, by simply being reasonable and following scientific advice.  There's already protests in some places, and unlike it happened before with him, doesn't seem a  far-left thing only this time.

Anyway, Brazil has now 28.320 infected after 50 days with 1.736 dead; for comparison sake, the US had 1.281, and 36 respectively, and only Italy had higher numbers than we had now.

[Tears of Lys]

17 hours ago, Wall Flower said:

If it makes you feel better, lizards can escape predators by shedding their tail. So maybe they didn't all meet a grizzly fate.

That DOES make me feel better!  Thanks.

I kind of knew that, I think. I don't know why I didn't put two and two together in this case.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

24 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

It took a little longer than expected, but this afternoon Bolsonaro fired his Health minister during the pandemic, for committing the utmost crime- becoming much more popular than he is, by simply being reasonable and following scientific advice.  There's already protests in some places, and unlike it happened before with him, doesn't seem a  far-left thing only this time.

Anyway, Brazil has now 28.320 infected after 50 days with 1.736 dead; for comparison sake, the US had 1.281, and 36 respectively, and only Italy had higher numbers than we had now.

Not sure what part of the country you're in, but do you really think there's anyway your country could get accurate numbers, even if it was what they cared about most?