For WHOm the Bell Tolls - Covid-19 #11

[Rippounet]

So France will start loosening its confinement on the 11th of May.
Macron says in 3 weeks "we" will have multiplied by five our national production of masks (which I thought was close to zero ??) and made 10,000 respirators. He also says "we" doubled the number of beds in reanimation services.
He says production of a vaccine is being sped up (??) and he presented it as a matter of "months."
Schools will start reopening on the 11th, but entertainment/leisure venues (restaurants, bars, movie theatres... ) will not.
The elderly and other people vulnerable to the virus are asked to remain confined after the 11th.
Tests should be available for all people with symptoms (but not everyone).
An ap' has been developed to track who came into contact with a contaminated individual.
Lots of economic measures are in place and more will be taken to help businesses and families.
The government will give us a detailed plan in two weeks.

Damn, I have to say it was a pretty good speech. It probably helped that I read it instead of watching that fuckface, but I have to admit even I was moved by some of those words. He did talk of everything that was on people's minds, thanking the healthcare workers, talking about international solidarity, mentioning inequalities and social justice, and even quoted the UDHR on that.
I hate the man, but damn, his communication has almost always been top notch, I'll give him that.
It is reassuring to have someone at the top to at least look like he knows what he's doing after all.

[Fragile Bird]

Dr. Chris Murray, who prepared the models that are most quoted in the US, predicts deaths will finish by mid-June in the US because transmission will have finished by then.

That would be interesting. Basically the 'crush it' thesis.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

38 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

So France will start loosening its confinement on the 11th of May.
Macron says in 3 weeks "we" will have multiplied by five our national production of masks (which I thought was close to zero ??) and made 10,000 respirators. He also says "we" doubled the number of beds in reanimation services.
He says production of a vaccine is being sped up (??) and he presented it as a matter of "months."
Schools will start reopening on the 11th, but entertainment/leisure venues (restaurants, bars, movie theatres... ) will not.
The elderly and other people vulnerable to the virus are asked to remain confined after the 11th.
Tests should be available for all people with symptoms (but not everyone).
An ap' has been developed to track who came into contact with a contaminated individual.
Lots of economic measures are in place and more will be taken to help businesses and families.
The government will give us a detailed plan in two weeks.

Damn, I have to say it was a pretty good speech. It probably helped that I read it instead of watching that fuckface, but I have to admit even I was moved by some of those words. He did talk of everything that was on people's minds, thanking the healthcare workers, talking about international solidarity, mentioning inequalities and social justice, and even quoted the UDHR on that.
I hate the man, but damn, his communication has almost always been top notch, I'll give him that.
It is reassuring to have someone at the top to at least look like he knows what he's doing after all.

I mean, he did pick an awesome day, though. 

[The Anti-Targ]

9 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Dr. Chris Murray, who prepared the models that are most quoted in the US, predicts deaths will finish by mid-June in the US because transmission will have finished by then.

That would be interesting. Basically the 'crush it' thesis.

That does not compute, unless he's saying the US will reach herd immunity levels by then, or significant social distancing measures will remain in place until then. What is the science to back this up?

I've just seen a fairly disturbing data point on the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracking web page. The US graph is showing a massive one day spike in the USA of 129K new cases reported for 13 Apr, which may be because of a backlog of tests just being reported now. and the global graph is also showing a corresponding spike. But the actual numbers haven't been updated. So I don't know what data is correct. Also Worldometer hasn't been updated with this spike, and the live youtube stream on Roylab Stats isn't showing the spike either. 

Man I hope Johns Hopkins is the site that has the wrong info.

[Fragile Bird]

4 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

That does not compute, unless he's saying the US will reach herd immunity levels by then, or significant social distancing measures will remain in place until then. What is the science to back this up?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/health/ihme-model-death-predictions/index.html

I have heard nothing about this spike of cases. Let's see if it shows up tomorrow?

[The Anti-Targ]

2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/health/ihme-model-death-predictions/index.html

I have heard nothing about this spike of cases. Let's see if it shows up tomorrow?

I don't like to use profanity, but that is just fucking junk science and highly irresponsible for someone claiming scientific credentials to do:

Quote

According to Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the institute that built the model, "the underlying assumption is that something will be put in place -- I don't think it's social distancing -- that will reduce the risk to essentially zero resurgence."

Modelling based on an assumption of "something" being done is worthless.

Quote

But to outside experts, that underlying assumption appears to be wishful thinking.

"Unfortunately, there is no way that amount of control could happen by the summer," said Bill Hanage, a professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

Precisely!

If you are going to do some modelling then you have to insert specific measures and input predicted effects of those measures for the model to have any value. You can't say "TBC thing that will be highly effective" will be in place in May and will stop the infection in its tracks.

If this is the person the US administration is relying on for making policy decisions then it means there's more than one madman in charge.

[The Anti-Targ]

Death toll rises here, as predicted. 1366 confirmed cases (+17 from yesterday), 9 deaths. CFR now at 0.65%. Closing in on 1% hope we don't get there.

Looks like Johns Hopkins data has been cleaned up and there has been no massive spike. That is a relief. At least one more day before the world hits 2 million.

I'd like to play the "one quiet night" card if I may. Or should we save it for later?

[Jo498]

There's a big caveat about the data of the last few days; in countries like Germany Easter was basically a 4-day-weekend, certainly testing and labs have not worked at their full capacity. I think it is somewhat similar on many other countries, so I'd wait at least another 3-4 days and then look at the trend of the last 7-10 days before any conclusions.

[Ran]

1 minute ago, Jo498 said:

There's a big caveat about the data of the last few days; in countries like Germany Easter was basically a 4-day-weekend, certainly testing and labs have not worked at their full capacity. I think it is somewhat similar on many other countries, so I'd wait at least another 3-4 days and then look at the trend of the last 7-10 days before any conclusions.

Yes. Same here in Sweden. Be prepared for hundreds of deaths to be reported today, even though it's because we had barely any reported during our four day holiday (just two deaths reported for yesterday, for example). FHM's report page will be updated some time after 2 PM today with new data and revisions on the undercounted days, and I suspect Wednesday and Thursday will see some (but smaller) revisions.

[Scott_N]

There's been quite a bit of discussion about the Swedish approach on this thread(s) and I thought this was an interesting perspective:

https://unherd.com/2020/04/jury-still-out-on-swedish-coronavirus-strategy/

[Ran]

7 minutes ago, Scott_N said:

There's been quite a bit of discussion about the Swedish approach on this thread(s) and I thought this was an interesting perspective:

https://unherd.com/2020/04/jury-still-out-on-swedish-coronavirus-strategy/

Yes. So far ICU admission rates has been steady rather than suggesting exponential increase in the larger populace, which is why FHM believes that R is circa 1 in Stockholm, which they feel is sustainable. According to a head at our biggest university hospital, there's substantial ICU space free (I think over 200 beds) with more being set up over the coming days and weeks (they've effectively tripled Stockholm's ICU capacity, and are aiming for quadruple). Over 80% of COVID-19 patients survive ICU intervention in Stockholm, more than they had expected

[Arakan]

New interesting study from a British think tank about the current pandemic crisis management. 
 

https://www.dkv.global/covid

Germany number 2 in the world behind Israel overall, number one in treatment efficiency. UK 30th in Europe. US 70th in the world. As I predicted. Analysis based on hard data and facts, not wishful thinking. Only delusional people (MAGA, Brexit) operate on the later. Call it German smugness I don’t care. But I hope the British people will hold those responsible who have been in charge for the last 10 years. For Trump every word is useless. 

[Spockydog]

9 minutes ago, Arakan said:

I hope the British people will hold those responsible who have been in charge for the last 10 years.

Not a chance.

 

[Gareth]

3 hours ago, Ran said:

Yes. So far ICU admission rates has been steady rather than suggesting exponential increase in the larger populace, which is why FHM believes that R is circa 1 in Stockholm, which they feel is sustainable. According to a head at our biggest university hospital, there's substantial ICU space free (I think over 200 beds) with more being set up over the coming days and weeks (they've effectively tripled Stockholm's ICU capacity, and are aiming for quadruple). 

Finding rooms for ICU is not an issue for the hospitals that I work for.  We converted our PACU to ICU beds since there is no elective surgeries going on.  Likewise with our cardiac step-down units.  The issue is finding RNs, RTs, etc. to man these extra beds.  So much of our part-time/per diem nurses answered the call from NYC ($10k per week) for help.  We had clinic nurses covered med-surg and shuffled med-surg RNs to these units.  These med-surg RNs had a really quick training on taking care of critical and ventilated pts, proning them, etc.  Its sub-optimal. 

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Arakan said:

New interesting study from a British think tank about the current pandemic crisis management. 
 

https://www.dkv.global/covid

Germany number 2 in the world behind Israel overall, number one in treatment efficiency. UK 30th in Europe. US 70th in the world. As I predicted. Analysis based on hard data and facts, not wishful thinking. Only delusional people (MAGA, Brexit) operate on the later. Call it German smugness I don’t care. But I hope the British people will hold those responsible who have been in charge for the last 10 years. For Trump every word is useless. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-c

Quote

 

ountries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#e2223c03dec4

Looking for examples of true leadership in a crisis? From Iceland to Taiwan and from Germany to New Zealand, women are stepping up to show the world how to manage a messy patch for our human family. Add in Finland, Iceland and Denmark, and this pandemic is revealing that women have what it takes when the heat rises in our Houses of State. Many will say these are small countries, or islands, or other exceptions. But Germany is large and leading, and the UK is an island with very different outcomes. These leaders are gifting us an attractive alternative way of wielding power. What are they teaching us?

Truth
Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, stood up early and calmly told her countrymen that this was a serious bug that would infect up to 70% of the population. “It’s serious,” she said, “take it seriously.” She did, so they did too. Testing began right from the get go. Germany jumped right over the phases of denial, anger and disingenuousness we’ve seen elsewhere. The country’s numbers are far below its European neighbours, and there are signs they may be able to start loosening restrictions relatively soon.

 

In the meantime, the state where the meat packing plant that does significant amount of our meat processing-to-sake had to shut down due to the C19, and has now a big outbreak is run by a ... rethug ... MAN.

All of the states that haven't done a shut down have rethug male governors.

While, San Francisco which has done so much better than NYC's de Blasio at handling this catastrophe, has a mayor who is a woman.

 

[Heartofice]

7 minutes ago, Zorral said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-c

In the meantime, the state where the meat packing plant that does significant amount of our meat processing-to-sake had to shut down due to the C19, and has now a big outbreak is run by a ... rethug ... MAN.

All of the states that haven't done a shut down have rethug male governors.

 

I wondered how long it would take for someone to blame the whole thing on men.

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, Zorral said:

In the meantime, the state where the meat packing plant that does significant amount of our meat processing-to-sake had to shut down due to the C19, and has now a big outbreak is run by a ... rethug ... MAN.

All of the states that haven't done a shut down have rethug male governors.

South Dakota's governor Kristi Noem (R) is a woman.  WaPo (limited clicks) has an article about the outbreak in South Dakota and the Smithfield meat processing plant. 

[Jo498]

Take heart, men are (doubtlessly in some mysterious way deservedly) about 70% of the Covid deaths...

I'd take Trump (or Darth Vader) for Merkel any day. She is a total non-leader with several 180 degree turns on many issues (sometimes back and forth again). Germany hardly deserves that praise. They were warned early in january with a case in a firm with chinese business connections and basically slept for 6 weeks before becoming active. Both Merkel and the health minister acted like clowns, totally overtaxed by the task. (That minister clown cared more about his further career, thinking about whether he should try for Merkel's successor or wait another 4 years) If they are doing better than many other countries it is mostly the absolutely horrible performance of other countries, partly sheer luck or that subsidiary adminstrative structures and the health system are overall still working comparably well (again only comparably, compared to the hot mess elsewhere). And maybe again luck with a fairly complacent populace who are not as gregarious as other cultures.

[Zorral]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

South Dakota's governor Kristi Noem (R) is a woman.  WaPo (limited clicks) has an article about the outbreak in South Dakota and the Smithfield meat processing plant. 

You're absolutely right about that -- I was wrong, and I was coming to correct my wrongness.   proving that women too can be idiots.

[Raja]

1 hour ago, Gareth said:

Finding rooms for ICU is not an issue for the hospitals that I work for.  We converted our PACU to ICU beds since there is no elective surgeries going on.  Likewise with our cardiac step-down units.  The issue is finding RNs, RTs, etc. to man these extra beds. 

Yeah - this is what's happening in a lot of places, with ICU capacity increasing in a lot of NHS trusts in the same way. It's why I didn't agree with using ICU occupancy as the sole measure when trying to decide if a health system is overwhelmed. Staffing & PPE is a huge issue.