Guessing the plot of TWOW: Mereen and the Dothraki Sea

[Alyn Oakenfist]

So given that TWOW almost certainly isn't coming out this year, I was thinking maybe we can try and form a coherent narrative on how TWOW is going to look like, at least the early parts. So I was thinking we could each write how we think each theater is going to look like, and decide which to accept as the best option with the reaction button on the bottom-right (you can submit multiple ideas). So the best place to start would be Mereen as it isn't going to be affected by other theaters. My personal guess is:

- Barristan, Victarion and Ben Plumm manage to defeat the Yunkish, scattering them.

- Victarion's thralls blow the horn, but it doesn't do anything, as it required a true Valyrian to blow it.

- Tyrion and Jorah reveal themselves to Barristan, who agrees to keep them on at least until Dany arrives to judge them

- Dany manages to become a Khal using Drogon assembling a formidable host of Dothraki, with which she marches back towards Mereen. The experience also makes her go deeper into the whole mother of Dragons and Khaleesi part of her identity.

- Dany arrives at an already liberated Mereen and has to decide on what to do with a lot of people. My guess is she's going to: accept Tyrion and Jorah into her council, and at Tyrion's advice pardon Ben Plumm, she's going to reject Victarion's marriage proposal, but is going to gain him and his fleet with the promise of giving him the Seastone Chair, as a vassal though. Hizdahr and Raznak though are both going to be executed, despite there not being conclusive proof of any wrong-doing. 

- Wishing revenge Dany with her now formidable host is going to march on Yunkai, and promptly sack it, killing most of it's masters.

- After this at around the halfway point of the story, Dany is going to depart for Westeros, using the massive amount of ships she probably now has, the Iron Fleet, the ships that are more then likely going to be captured by Victarion, not to mention what ever she is going to get from sacking Yunkai. She probably is going to leave her freed men behind, taking with her only the Unsullied and some Dothraki

But that's just my opinion, so what are your thoughts?

[Tyrion1991]

Just one small point on one of these.

I am very skeptical Jorah is going to be taken back into the fold. In Storm when Dany exiles him it’s a very dramatic and final moment. 

“Perhaps the Gods have some other use for you but I do not” 

It was a big part of her first arc concluding in ASOS and so presumably is intended to have significant consequence. A writer doesn’t normally throw down that sort of drama just to go back on it.

It would be too much about face if this was glossed over. Sure they’ve both had a rough time but I feel more would have to result from this. Not because Dany wouldn’t. At the end of Dance she seems to miss him. 

Specifically Barristan is not just going to accept him. It’s very noticeable that Danys absent at the moment all these allies have come back. Her last order, which we’re constantly reminded of in Dance, is that she made the order he was to be put to death. I don’t see why Barristan would be ambivalent or hesitate here. So there’s going to be a conflict here.

I think it’s more likely that Jorah will be forced to flee the city; if he survives at all. Why would Brown Ben or Tyrion risk Danys wrath by associating themselves with someone that, so far as they are all concerned, Dany wants dead. Nobody is privy to Danys doubts, misgivings or thoughts on this. They’re going to act on that command.

I mean Barristan could quite honestly just have him decapitated on the spot. Which could lead to a Caesar/Pompey moment of (Vargo Hoat voice) “you killed my Bear!”. 

But yeah I think he’ll be driven away again, potentially into the service of a different faction. However Dany won’t be privy to all the circumstances beyond Jorah being with one of the Sellsword Companies. In fact, it’s entirely possible there might be a misunderstanding and she thinks he joined the Second Sons to kill her. There should a lot of tension around that for him and Tyrion, especially with Dany going to the Dark side and not being in the forgiving mood. She won’t know that he got enslaved and branded. That sort of misunderstanding is I think more likely.

I dunno. Maybe Barri will just throw him in jail and decide that it’s Danys decision. Maybe it’s more subtle alienation and less dramatic. But the command was pretty clear.

[X-Buster]

The story will pick up where we left off.  Queen Daenerys and Drogon will go to Vaes Dothrak and meet with the crones.  Most of the Dothraki will follow her but some will not.  A million people are not all going to have the same opinions.  She will become the Khal of khals and remake the Dothraki into one khalasar.  

Victarion was sent on a suicide mission.  His fleet will burn and be destroyed.  This was Euron's plan to remove any competition for his control of the IB.  They will initially do well in battle against the fleet from Volantis but something will happen, maybe the dusky woman will set fire, to cause fire to break out in the middle of the fleet.  Some of the ships will be saved but it will not be enough for the return to Westeros.  

Barristan will barely pull off a victory but it will be enough to cause the slaves to revolt in Volantis.  A free Meereen is a beacon of hope.  There will be a lot of politics going on after the battle.  Barristan will have to face the Green Grace.  I'm thinking Skahaz is loyal to the Queen.  I don't know about Reznak.  

The Daenerys chapters will have a lot of magic elements.  I'm thinking she stays put in Vaes Dothrak for most of the book.  Quaithe will appear and again give her riddles.  

Meanwhile, Marwyn will arrive.  He will introduce himself to the other men from Westeros.  There will be an uneasy alliance among the ironborn, Barristan, Tyrion, Ben Plumm, and Marwyn.  I am hoping Gilly and her child will make the journey as well.  

Drogon will grow very fast.  He will be many times his size at Daznak's Pit by the end of the book.  Viserion and Rhaegal will have grown very large as well.

Khaleesi will return to Meereen at the end of the book.  The process for rebuilding will begin.  War criminals will be tried.  The Pale Mare will have run its course and thousands will have died.  The long night will cause the land to come under darkness.

Tyrion will tell Daenerys about Aegon.  Marwyn will introduce himself and offer his services.  Victarion, if he lives, will offer his hand in marriage.  Quaithe and Marwyn will meet.

[Lord Varys]

All we can say is that the Yunkish will be crushed. That much is obvious. What happens inside Meereen is impossible to say, the same with the effects of Dragonbinder.

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

- Victarion's thralls blow the horn, but it doesn't do anything, as it required a true Valyrian to blow it.

This is very unlikely. Something is going to happen when the horn is blown and it will be significant. I've laid out many possibilities over the years but I don't like to pretend I know where the story is going because I don't. This is one of the key mysteries of early TWoW.

I expect Dragonbinder to start some kind of dragonrider plot, i.e. a series of events which will conclude with Viserion and Rhaegal being claimed by their first riders. That, in turn, will change the power dynamics in Slaver's Bay and could either result in them waiting for Dany/continuing her policies ... or not. Neither Vic nor Tyrion nor Ben are under any obligation to wait for Daenerys nor do they need her to tell them what to do if they have dragons. They could do whatever they want with a good portion of 'Dany's people'. A core number will stay to wait for her no matter what, but the Ironborn will stick with Vic, the sellswords will do whatever some dragonrider tells them, etc.

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

- Tyrion and Jorah reveal themselves to Barristan, who agrees to keep them on at least until Dany arrives to judge them

The gang should get together, or at least those who survive. Whether they will be on the same page is another matter.

Tyrion might get into Barristan's graces if it turned out he was Aerys II's bastard and claimed one of the dragons. If not, then I see no reason why anyone should give two groats about the ugly turncloak dwarf.

Thereafter somebody will have to deal with the Harpy and stuff, and then they will figure out what to do when the Volantenes show up. This plot will also play out and one imagines that afterwards the rebelling tiger slave soldiers will insist on freeing all slaves of Volantis, which means that the people who still are in Slaver's Bay from the gang will be forced to tag along.

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

- Dany manages to become a Khal using Drogon assembling a formidable host of Dothraki, with which she marches back towards Mereen. The experience also makes her go deeper into the whole mother of Dragons and Khaleesi part of her identity.

Dany is not just going to become 'a khal'. She will become the Stallion Who Mounts the World and unite all Dothraki under her banner the way Mengo and his mother Doshi did. This going to take time, even if Jhaqo was on his way to Meereen on orders of the dosh khaleen to bring Dany to them because they have foreseen what she will do and intend to put her through some trials.

Remember the vision from the House of the Undying were a bunch of naked crones comes out of the Womb of the World to kneel before Daenerys. Originally I took that for a garbled version of Dany's own past in Vaes Dothrak, something relating to her being the mother of the Stallion we never saw in the book itself, but with her returning to the Dothraki now it seems clear she is going to take over the Dothraki by means of bending the dosh khaleen to her will. Who, if you think about the witch-queen Doshi from who that body gets its name, really are the true rulers of the Dothraki as a people.

Whether Dany will then immediately return to Slaver's Bay is impossible to know. I doubt it considering George has said Dany and Tyrion will only meet 'eventually' in TWoW, meaning that's likely going to happen in the second half/close to the end of the book rather than early on.

Also note that Dany is a dragonrider now and could pay her people in Meereen a visit without bringing an army. Vice versa, Tyrion or any other dragonrider could fly into the Dothraki Sea or to Vaes Dothrak or any other place to meet with her in a very short time.

I personally think Dany will press on from Vaes Dothrak to Qarth rather than return to Slaver's Bay. For one, because Xaro Xhoan Daxos betrayed her and Qarth is the strongest of her enemies, two because Quaithe seems to be still there and she had to return into the story eventually, and three because the place has to be destroyed to destroy the slave trade. They cannot leave with Qarth still intact.

And the Dothraki would love to sack that place, one assumes. They will demand some rewards for allowing Dany to rule them even if she is their prophesied ruler, etc. The fact that being the ruler of the Dothraki will come with a cost will also slow down Dany's return to her other people. You cannot be the ruler of a couple of million people and then just do whatever the hell you want. Those people won't be automatons even if they will follow Dany.

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

- Dany arrives at an already liberated Mereen and has to decide on what to do with a lot of people. My guess is she's going to: accept Tyrion and Jorah into her council, and at Tyrion's advice pardon Ben Plumm, she's going to reject Victarion's marriage proposal, but is going to gain him and his fleet with the promise of giving him the Seastone Chair, as a vassal though. Hizdahr and Raznak though are both going to be executed, despite there not being conclusive proof of any wrong-doing. 

Those things have to be resolved/dealt with in some manner long before Dany returns.

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

- Wishing revenge Dany with her now formidable host is going to march on Yunkai, and promptly sack it, killing most of it's masters.

The same here. Dany's people will immediately decide to punish Yunkai and the other cities after they crushed them, possibly even before the Volantenes show up. They have to do that to prevent them from waging another war against them.

It could be a wise move of the would-be rulers in Dany's place to keep her people occupied with a crusade against the slavers. It could prevent them from breaking into small factions/turning against each other.

But only if those would-be rulers will be on the same page and we do not get a rogue dragonrider who doesn't give a damn about Dany's cause.

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

- After this at around the halfway point of the story, Dany is going to depart for Westeros, using the massive amount of ships she probably now has, the Iron Fleet, the ships that are more then likely going to be captured by Victarion, not to mention what ever she is going to get from sacking Yunkai. She probably is going to leave her freed men behind, taking with her only the Unsullied and some Dothraki

They will destroy all the cities in Slaver's Bay and then go if they go. Nobody is going to be left behind in that shitty place. With slavery gone, nobody can live there, so they all have to leave.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

All we can say is that the Yunkish will be crushed. That much is obvious. What happens inside Meereen is impossible to say, the same with the effects of Dragonbinder.

3 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

- Victarion's thralls blow the horn, but it doesn't do anything, as it required a true Valyrian to blow it.

This is very unlikely. Something is going to happen when the horn is blown and it will be significant. I've laid out many possibilities over the years but I don't like to pretend I know where the story is going because I don't. This is one of the key mysteries of early TWoW.

I expect Dragonbinder to start some kind of dragonrider plot, i.e. a series of events which will conclude with Viserion and Rhaegal being claimed by their first riders. That, in turn, will change the power dynamics in Slaver's Bay and could either result in them waiting for Dany/continuing her policies ... or not. Neither Vic nor Tyrion nor Ben are under any obligation to wait for Daenerys nor do they need her to tell them what to do if they have dragons. They could do whatever they want with a good portion of 'Dany's people'. A core number will stay to wait for her no matter what, but the Ironborn will stick with Vic, the sellswords will do whatever some dragonrider tells them, etc.

Quote

- Tyrion and Jorah reveal themselves to Barristan, who agrees to keep them on at least until Dany arrives to judge them

The gang should get together, or at least those who survive. Whether they will be on the same page is another matter.

Tyrion might get into Barristan's graces if it turned out he was Aerys II's bastard and claimed one of the dragons. If not, then I see no reason why anyone should give two groats about the ugly turncloak dwarf.

Thereafter somebody will have to deal with the Harpy and stuff, and then they will figure out what to do when the Volantenes show up. This plot will also play out and one imagines that afterwards the rebelling tiger slave soldiers will insist on freeing all slaves of Volantis, which means that the people who still are in Slaver's Bay from the gang will be forced to tag along.

Quote

- Dany manages to become a Khal using Drogon assembling a formidable host of Dothraki, with which she marches back towards Mereen. The experience also makes her go deeper into the whole mother of Dragons and Khaleesi part of her identity.

Dany is not just going to become 'a khal'. She will become the Stallion Who Mounts the World and unite all Dothraki under her banner the way Mengo and his mother Doshi did. This going to take time, even if Jhaqo was on his way to Meereen on orders of the dosh khaleen to bring Dany to them because they have foreseen what she will do and intend to put her through some trials.

Remember the vision from the House of the Undying were a bunch of naked crones comes out of the Womb of the World to kneel before Daenerys. Originally I took that for a garbled version of Dany's own past in Vaes Dothrak, something relating to her being the mother of the Stallion we never saw in the book itself, but with her returning to the Dothraki now it seems clear she is going to take over the Dothraki by means of bending the dosh khaleen to her will. Who, if you think about the witch-queen Doshi from who that body gets its name, really are the true rulers of the Dothraki as a people.

Whether Dany will then immediately return to Slaver's Bay is impossible to know. I doubt it considering George has said Dany and Tyrion will only meet 'eventually' in TWoW, meaning that's likely going to happen in the second half/close to the end of the book rather than early on.

Also note that Dany is a dragonrider now and could pay her people in Meereen a visit without bringing an army. Vice versa, Tyrion or any other dragonrider could fly into the Dothraki Sea or to Vaes Dothrak or any other place to meet with her in a very short time.

I personally think Dany will press on from Vaes Dothrak to Qarth rather than return to Slaver's Bay. For one, because Xaro Xhoan Daxos betrayed her and Qarth is the strongest of her enemies, two because Quaithe seems to be still there and she had to return into the story eventually, and three because the place has to be destroyed to destroy the slave trade. They cannot leave with Qarth still intact.

And the Dothraki would love to sack that place, one assumes. They will demand some rewards for allowing Dany to rule them even if she is their prophesied ruler, etc. The fact that being the ruler of the Dothraki will come with a cost will also slow down Dany's return to her other people. You cannot be the ruler of a couple of million people and then just do whatever the hell you want. Those people won't be automatons even if they will follow Dany.

Quote

- Dany arrives at an already liberated Mereen and has to decide on what to do with a lot of people. My guess is she's going to: accept Tyrion and Jorah into her council, and at Tyrion's advice pardon Ben Plumm, she's going to reject Victarion's marriage proposal, but is going to gain him and his fleet with the promise of giving him the Seastone Chair, as a vassal though. Hizdahr and Raznak though are both going to be executed, despite there not being conclusive proof of any wrong-doing. 

Those things have to be resolved/dealt with in some manner long before Dany returns.

Quote

- Wishing revenge Dany with her now formidable host is going to march on Yunkai, and promptly sack it, killing most of it's masters.

The same here. Dany's people will immediately decide to punish Yunkai and the other cities after they crushed them, possibly even before the Volantenes show up. They have to do that to prevent them from waging another war against them.

It could be a wise move of the would-be rulers in Dany's place to keep her people occupied with a crusade against the slavers. It could prevent them from breaking into small factions/turning against each other.

But only if those would-be rulers will be on the same page and we do not get a rogue dragonrider who doesn't give a damn about Dany's cause.

Quote

- After this at around the halfway point of the story, Dany is going to depart for Westeros, using the massive amount of ships she probably now has, the Iron Fleet, the ships that are more then likely going to be captured by Victarion, not to mention what ever she is going to get from sacking Yunkai. She probably is going to leave her freed men behind, taking with her only the Unsullied and some Dothraki

They will destroy all the cities in Slaver's Bay and then go if they go. Nobody is going to be left behind in that shitty place. With slavery gone, nobody can live there, so they all have to leave.

So you said all you think isn't going to happen, but what do you think is going to happen specifically?

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So you said all you think isn't going to happen, but what do you think is going to happen specifically?

I don't know. I try to come up with plausible scenarios and I'm pretty positive about some general developments - Dany ruling all the Dothraki, Euron and Cersei hooking up, Tyrion becoming a dragonrider (and turning out to be Aerys II's bastard) - but I've no idea what will happen.

I try not imagine the story in too much detail. Instead, I like to consider as many hypotheticals as possible and coming up with one I find the most plausible or interesting ... but that doesn't mean I think that will happen.

And in general I only try to make predictions up to the next big unknown plot point, anyway.

[chrisdaw]

She becomes Khaleesi of a big khalasar and everyone of note survives and sweeps West under her command (though probably in multiple parties). It isn't really that interesting, or debatable.

When they take Volantis things will probably get interesting with the red temple and their faith in Dany. Tyrion will ride Viserion so that might happen before they get to Westeros, or start happening if it becomes a process of ingratiating himself. I suppose Dany has to prove her new fire and blood self and lay waste to some stuff.

[McGuv19]

Dany will go to Vaes Dothrak to take control of the Dothraki. Then onto Qarth to kill Xaro and the warlocks, and find Quaithe there,who tells her to return to Meereen. 
 

Barristan will win the Battle of Meereen thanks to Brown Ben Plumm’s treachery and the Tattered Prince. Barristan will also win a duel with Bloodbeard and kill him. The Tattered Prince will demand Pentos as his price. Barristan will let Tyrion and Ben live. Jorah is going to be executed by Barristan as he fought on the Yunkish side and Dany ordered it before, but he takes the black and is spared.

Vic will arrive with the Iron Fleet and will go to the Dragon pit to blow the horn. However, it won’t give him a dragon, instead it will either cause the dragons to break loose, or (if Tyrion is a Targ bastard) Tyrion will ride one while Moqorro stops the other one from escaping. 
 
The Volantene fleet will arrive and Barristan will find out about a conspiracy to surrender Meereen to the slavers, and suspects Reznak, Hizdahr etc. The Volantenes and the Iron Fleet will battle and either Tyrion and his dragon or Moqorro using fire magic will burn the Volantene fleet. 
 
Dany will return and Vic offers marriage but she declines, saying to give him the Seastone Chair instead. Barristan will tell Dany about the conspirators and she will have some sort of vision/internal conflict and decides to use Drogon and the Unsullied to destroy the pyramids and kill all the highborn of Meereen, including Hizdahr, Reznak, Shavepate, and the Green Grace. Because of this Dany never finds out who the real Harpy was, and begins to suspect anyone of being the Harpy (Jorah, Tyrion etc). This begins her descent into Cersei-like paranoia.

Due to the destruction of the Volantene fleet, the red priest Benerro causes a slave revolt in Volantis, and the slaves take over the city. Moqorro also converts the surviving slave soldiers from the fleet and sends them to destroy New Ghis. This revolt eventually spreads and causes the downfalls of Oros, Tyria and the other cities that sent men against Dany. 

 

[SeanF]

I think there will be a religious/social revolution across the East, starting in Volantis, inspired, but not directed, by Daenerys.  That will have both good and bad sides, but slavery really has to go.   The slave masters have been heaping up their own funeral pyre for centuries, and Daenerys is the spark that lit the bonfire. 

I'm expecting the Great Masters, and the Wise Masters of Yunkai to be executed en masse;  either by Daenerys, or by her supporters, prior to her return.  I doubt if the cities of Slavers Bay will be burned.  Even without slave trading, there is considerable potential for agriculture.  I think it's more likely she'll leave someone like Skahaz to govern them in her absence.

Dany will take control of (most of) the Dothraki.  I imagine she will have to undergo some form of trial by ordeal, in order to satisfy the Dosh Khalleen.  Drogon will grow, but given what we know of the growth rate of dragons, he will still be nothing like his size in the TV show.

Tyrion, Marwyn, Bennero will all become part of Daenerys' inner circle.  I have no idea what Victarion's fate will be.  Tyrion as one of the other dragon riders seems plausible.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I think the ironborn will be Dany's bridge to Westeros. I think one of the dragons will peace out because of dragonbinder and head to Westeros to the true master of the horn. 

Even if Barristan wins against the Yunkai'i (and I'm pretty sure he will), there's still the Harpy to contend with. We still have no idea who that is. 

Marwyn will be the one with the freshest news of Westeros. There's a lot of information they don't know in Meereen. For one, they don't even seem to know that Oberyn Martell is dead. They don't even seem to have news of the Red Wedding. Plus he's got all that information about what's going on at the Wall, and this is something Tyrion can corroborate what with his encounter with Alliser Thorne in King's Landing.

I don't see Dany taking all the Dothraki with her. For one thing, there's a massive logistics problem, even with ironborn ships and the Qartheen and Volantene fleets. For another, it's winter and she'd have way too many mouths to feed. I do think she'll sack Yunkai on her way back to Meereen. But I also think she will split her forces and send them on their way to sack Volantis for instance. 

I don't think Jorah's story is over. Jeor's last words to Sam were for him to tell Jorah to take the black and that he forgives him. So I don't think that's gonna be left up the air like this. I think he'll head to Westeros with Dany. Plus she misses him and he was part of that vision quest. I think she'll forgive him for what he's done.

I don't think Tyrion will claim a dragon. I think Daario will, though.