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Addam Velaryon Reborn

Dorne in TWOW

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I don't understand how Dorne hope to fulfill their interests in the future.

It's obvious that they want two things, first they want revenge for the death of Elia and her children, which they got by the deaths of Tywin, Amary lorch and the mountain. Maybe they also be contempte by the fall of house lannister.

Second, they want to be in a place of strength.

Now, Aegon can't be marring Arienna because Deanerys is comming to Westeros, and with a big army and dragons, If Aegon wish for her to accepte him as a ruler beside her, he needs to marry her.

She won't accept nothing else, so this is why he can't marry Arienna and I think he knows it.

And Arienna can't marry Jon Con so Dorne is basically fuck in that option.

Aegon also knows that Dorne eventually support him because they hate the Lannisters and the Tyrells.

So Dorne will get their revenge because Aegon or Deanerys will rule Westeros by defeating the Lannisters.

But they won't be in a place of power because they aren't so game changer and the Targaryens can rely on their support.

 

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I think Doran want revenge but most of all a place of power in the 7 kingdoms. He is also a very strategic and vengeful human being. He will not forget the death of Quentyn by the dragon even if Daenerys has nothing to do with this. That's the purpose of Quentyn's storyline: create conflict with her potatial allies. With the possibility to make his daughter a queen, he will definetly support Aegon and try to get Dany out of the game. And I think this will be his downfall. For me the Dornish are out at the end of TWOW, I don't see them playing an important part in Dream.

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1 hour ago, mgreyjoy69 said:

With the possibility to make his daughter a queen, he will definetly support Aegon and try to get Dany out of the game. And I think this will be his downfall.

The Water Gardens, Doran's favorite place, was created in honor of the "first Daenerys". I believe it will be destroyed by the "second Daenerys", once it is made clear to Dany that she lost the support of Dorne in favor of Aegon. If Doran plays with fire, he will burn.

(I put first and second Daenerys in quotation mark because of the retcon of Jaehaerys's children in Fire & Blood).

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One thing that we know about Arianne is that she is manipulative, she convinced Arys that supporting her plan to crown Myrcella was a good idea.  She also knows that her father has planned for Quentyn to marry Daenerys - she reflects on how silly King Quentyn sounds in her TWOW chapters.  I don't think it would be beyond the scope of Arianne's character to present herself and King Aegon as Elia and Rhaegar come again.

Aegon himself is easily influenced, Tyrion convinced him to go West rather than East, supported by JonCon after he was infected with greyscale.  

The other issue here is that not all of the Dornish characters have the same interests - while Arianne appears to be more under the thumb now, we know from AFFC that she is seeking power in her own right, I don't think she cares much for the recent history of Dorne in the same way that the Sand Snakes or Doran do.  Arianne is the Dornish character with the most agency at the moment, she is going to roll the dice with Aegon and perhaps make a key mistake.

Doran has waited too long - Oberyn, Quentyn, and now Arianne - are having to act on his behalf because he can't do it himself.  He is described as the grass hiding the vipers of Dorne - but actually, Doran has acomplished very little in a timely manner.  He gets too much credit on here.

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There are many characters in Dorne that act.

1. Arianne seems not like the idea of King Quentyn and has come to dislike Daenerys. She will influence both Doran and Aegon against her. Her ambitions will grow in Winds and find the way to power through Aegon.

2. Sand Snakes have their own agenda. Initially Nymeria and Tyene will do what Doran wants:spy and watch. But when they see Robert Strong they go crazy. I expect them to assasinate Tommen but then be killed by Robert Strong. Sarella will be attached to Sam's story and help him bo back North. Obara will be killed along with Hotah by Darkstar.

3. Doran will be divided who to support:his son or his daughter. News of Quentyn's death and Daenerys disappeared will kill him.

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I too believe that Arianne will somehow seduce Aegon. And I believe they will take the Throne, even it be for a short time only.

 

The thing with Aegon "waiting" for Dany, his whole early invasion is to show that he is not dependent on her. Adding to this that Dany is atm still married to Hizdahr if i remember correctly and may find a new suitor (like victarion, ect.) before even arriving in Westeros. There is a big chance that Aegon believes he doesn't need Dany specially if some other power was succesful in stealing a dragon.

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Arianne will indeed seduce fAegon. (He's lived his whole life on a pole boat, and hasn't been anywhere near a girl. He won't stand a chance.) But it won't matter.

Doran has miscalculated. All his forces are in the passes. After he wins the battle of the Redwyne Straights, Euron will feint at Oldtwon, sail east, and sack Sunspear.

RIP Doran.

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Agree with what other posters has said , Arianne will seduce Aegon . Not sure if she'll be his queen , but she will try to find power through Aegon. 

The Sand snakes are playing their own game yes. Nymeria and Tyene will do Doran's bidding in KL , but they'll also do something that Doran did not order. They will kill both Tommen and Myrcella. As for Obara , I can see her teaming up with Darkstar. Sarella is doing her own thing , she'll escape Oldtown with Sam. 

Then late TWOW or early ADOS Euron will sack Sunspear. 

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I do think Dorne is pretty safe in The Winds of Winter. But I think Dorne will be completely destroyed in A Dream of Spring though.

I think Arianne will be a "pretty good" game-player moving forward (maybe even "better" than her father) and will be the reason why Aegon and Doran turn their backs on Dany.

I'm not quite sure what kind of arc GRRM has planned for Arianne though. If you're not careful, Arianne will just be a somewhat pathetic rerun of Cersei. There has to be more to her than that.

On 4/19/2020 at 6:58 AM, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

The Water Gardens, Doran's favorite place, was created in honor of the "first Daenerys". I believe it will be destroyed by the "second Daenerys", once it is made clear to Dany that she lost the support of Dorne in favor of Aegon. If Doran plays with fire, he will burn.

(I put first and second Daenerys in quotation mark because of the retcon of Jaehaerys's children in Fire & Blood).

We know what you meant. It still works.

 

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