Military strength observation - House Manderly and other Northern Houses

[Lord Varys]

20 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

Yeah but knowing George, their is a possibility that he might just decide that the north needs more man at arms and decide to give them thousands of professional soldiers. It wouldnt be realistic but than again anything related to warfare in this series isnt exactly realistic. 

Sure, but we would have to wait for that to happen, we cannot really expect it to happen.

20 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

The men that these 3 houses aren’t exactly reserves neither. They barely sent any mounted soldiers which indicates they sent mainly levy’s.  So these 3 houses still have a strong portion of their professional soldiers. 

To be sure, only Lady Dustin is said to have kept men back deliberately, we don't know that about the Ryswells.

And with Manderly horse I assume that most of those actually were with Robb at Winterfell, going with the idea that his call to arms caused a considerable amount of men sworn to White Harbor to go to Winterfell directly rather than gathering at White Harbor first to then meet Robb at Moat Cailin. The latter I expect only for men living east of White Harbor, bascially. This is easily done if you assume that the most fertile of the Manderly lands are along the White Knife and stretch up north half or of the way to Winterfell. If that was where most of those landed knights lived, then they could reach Winterfell very quickly when ravens and envoys called the banners.

From a logistical point of view it makes little sense to assume that men knowing they would go to war with the Starks would insist first to go to White Harbor and then take the detour to Moat Cailin.

I think that helps to deal with the impression that those 'stalwart Stark loyalists' the Manderlys are supposed to be kept half or more of their strength back. It also helps with the weird impression that the Northmen have a super cavalry-infantry ratio compared to the Lannisters and other houses which should surpass them in this regard if we assume a lot of White Harbor knights and cavalry was with Robb already in Winterfell and only the Manderlys themselves and their retinue accompanied Cat and Rodrik to Robb.

[The Young Maester]

On 6/13/2020 at 12:04 AM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but we would have to wait for that to happen, we cannot really expect it to happen.

Not expecting it to happen just saying that I wouldn’t be surprised if George decided to pull thousands of soldiers from some northern lords ass. 

On 6/13/2020 at 12:04 AM, Lord Varys said:

To be sure, only Lady Dustin is said to have kept men back deliberately, we don't know that about the Ryswells.

The Ryswells also sent the least possibly men. We dont witness riders from the rills, and we didnt see Lord Ryswell and his sons march south with their levies. Thats an indication that levies were the only things sent with some lordling as their commander. 

On 6/13/2020 at 12:04 AM, Lord Varys said:

And with Manderly horse I assume that most of those actually were with Robb at Winterfell, going with the idea that his call to arms caused a considerable amount of men sworn to White Harbor to go to Winterfell directly rather than gathering at White Harbor first to then meet Robb at Moat Cailin. The latter I expect only for men living east of White Harbor, bascially. This is easily done if you assume that the most fertile of the Manderly lands are along the White Knife and stretch up north half or of the way to Winterfell. If that was where most of those landed knights lived, then they could reach Winterfell very quickly when ravens and envoys called the banners.

Yes hedge knights and outriders from the white knife no doubt heard of the call to arms. But the landed knights along with the lords and their retainers. They wouldnt have marched to winterfell unless ordered by Wyman. A lord and knight will be more loyal to his local liege lord than to the lord of winterfell. 

Wyman indicates himself that he still possesses a large number of man and the strongest cavalry in the north. Of the 1500 the fat lord sent south, maybe 300-500 of these are mounted horsemen. 

On 6/13/2020 at 12:04 AM, Lord Varys said:

From a logistical point of view it makes little sense to assume that men knowing they would go to war with the Starks would insist first to go to White Harbor and then take the detour to Moat Cailin.

Yes but their first oath is to white harbour not to winterfell. Unless they are outriders and hedge knights. The wealthier ones that hold lands wont go to winterfell because they most wait for the muster from white harbour.

On 6/13/2020 at 12:04 AM, Lord Varys said:

I think that helps to deal with the impression that those 'stalwart Stark loyalists' the Manderlys are supposed to be kept half or more of their strength back. It also helps with the weird impression that the Northmen have a super cavalry-infantry ratio compared to the Lannisters and other houses which should surpass them in this regard if we assume a lot of White Harbor knights and cavalry was with Robb already in Winterfell and only the Manderlys themselves and their retinue accompanied Cat and Rodrik to Robb.

Manderly definitely kept more than half his strength behind. And if he presumes to have the strongest cavalry in the north than that puts him at at least 1500-2000 cavalry in ADWD. If the Freys are able to muster 1000 cavalry than I think Manderly most have double their numbers.