The Fellowship of the Prince that was Promised

[Lady Rhodes]

In discussing topics on another thread, I thought it may be worth the time to lay out my thoughts on a separate thread and open it for critique and discussion.  @St Daga This may be of interest to you as it was you that I was discussing this with!

As a general premise: I think that there was a fellowship created to help bring forth the prince that was promised prophecy. It is clear that there were some interesting, suspicious, possibly nefarious things going on around the time of the Tourney of Harrenhal, Lyanna's disappearance, and in the Red Mountains of Dorne.  There are still many unanswered questions that we all have towards these events and people involved in them, even by tangent, that I think a fully fleshed out theory could clear up. As a homage to Tolkien, I am guessing that this fellowship has nine members.  

The Fellowship: Rhaegar Targaryen, Elia Martell, Lyanna Stark, Arthur Dayne, Ashara Dayne, Oswell Whent.  

The following three I am unsure of, but I am guessing Queen Rhaella, Willem Darry, and Llweyn Martell.

To contrast Tolkien, where most of his Fellowship lived (RIP Boromir), most of this fellowship died.  I am thinking that there may be a direct inversion and one of this fellowship lived.  I will discuss that more later.

Rhaegar read something that led him to believe he, or later his son,  was the Prince that was Promised.  If we are to take Dany's vision in the HotU at face value (which can be contested, as some of her visions did not or are destined to not come to pass), Rhaegar sincerely believed that the dragon must have three heads.  We know that Elia was very frail after the birth of Rhaenys and was told after the birth of Aegon that she could not have any more children. Thus, I think the fellowship was created to bring about the 3rd head of the dragon.  

Only, when the fellowship was created, Elia did not yet know she was pregnant with Aegon.  The Tourney of Harrenhal was arranged by Oswell Whent and is widely considered to be a chance for Rhaegar to form a great council.  My thoughts are that it was also an attempt at recruiting women for the prophecy.  Although Ashara was smitten with Ned, it is noted that there were no betrothals or promises made. 

Quote

Arya VIII in A Storm of Swords

[Harwin speaking] "When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

Why would a match not have been made? Ned was the 2nd son and she was a daughter of a southern house, which would have appealed to Rickard's southron ambitions plot (assuming we take that at Lady Dustin's word), and a house that also descended from the First Men.  

I think Ashara was already involved in the fellowship and she could not risk bringing more attention to the Starks, because Lyanna was also recruited.  I think Rhaegar impregnated both Ashara and Lyanna, not knowing the Elia was already pregnant with Aegon.  This is not a terrible idea, even if he did know about Aegon, because stillbirth and dying in childbirth are not uncommon occurences in the time period that this story is set. 

So, we have two pregnant, unmarried, highborn ladies.  Where do we keep them hidden? 

This is where the Martell's come into play.  I don't think Oberyn and Doran know of this, but I suspect Llewyn may have and suggested the tower.  I also think that Queen Rhaella and Viserys' midnight escape to Dragonstone was a feint.  Instead, they went to Dorne.

At the Tower of Joy, we have the pregnant Lyanna, the pregnant Ashara Dayne, and the pregnant Queen Rhaella, along with a young prince Viserys.  I suspect that Elia would have eventually joined, had it not been for Aerys and his paranoia. Rhaella dies giving birth to either another stillborn babe.  Dany is the daughter of Rhaegar and Ashara - even Barristan states:

Quote

Barristan - The Kingbreaker - in A Dance with Dragons

Ser Barristan could still recall Ashara's smile, the sound of her laughter. He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. Daenerys has the same eyes. Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara's daughter …

I think it is quite possible Ashara is the member of the Fellowship still alive.  Her body was never found, and I find it plausible that she is Septa Lemore.  She is still trying to carry out the Fellowship's goal - bring about the prince that was promised prophecy.  She believes she has Aegon, that her daughter Daenerys has hatched dragons, and she very well may know of Jon Snow's true parentage.  

[kissdbyfire]

21 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Although Ashara was smitten with Ned

Was she? I don't recall anything from the text that supports this. 

Also, I'm not sure I understand... Rhaegar was recruiting women to produce a 3rd head, but Elia didn't know she was pregnant w/ Aegon? Then Rhaegar must have been looking for the 2nd head before he could look for the 3rd? I'm reading on my phone and I hate it, so maybe I missed something?

[corbon]

38 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Only, when the fellowship was created, Elia did not yet know she was pregnant with Aegon.  The Tourney of Harrenhal was arranged by Oswell Whent and is widely considered to be a chance for Rhaegar to form a great council.  My thoughts are that it was also an attempt at recruiting women for the prophecy. 

Ok, so first, just to be clear, we have a premise, that this Fellowship was created. The premise is unproven, may not have significant evidence as yet, but we are speculating on the premise that this Fellowship existed. 
At least thats how I'm gonna try and treat it

38 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Although Ashara was smitten with Ned, it is noted that there were no betrothals or promises made. 

The only piece of evidence that supports Ashara being smitten with Ned comes from a source who likely wasn't even born at the time - Ashara's 'sister' Allyria, gossiping with her 'nephew' as a little kid (Edric was probably 6 or less when they talked about it, since he left home at 6 to live with Berric Dondarrion).
Its extremely unreliable, not only due to dubious provenance but because the same provenance believes Ned was banging Wylla while in love with Ashara, something that absolutely defies the Ned Robert knew and the Ned inside whose head we've been.

38 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Why would a match not have been made? Ned was the 2nd son and she was a daughter of a southern house, which would have appealed to Rickard's southron ambitions plot (assuming we take that at Lady Dustin's word), and a house that also descended from the First Men.  

Because she wasn't actually smitten with Ned.

Harwin himself says he doubts there is any truth of it. he merely points out that there would be no harm in a little dalliance between Ned and Ashara at Harrenhal (assuming no pregnancy!)

I can agree that Ashara might be the one still alive, for other reasons, but the rest lacks anything more than wild speculation that I can see. 

[TheBlackDragonWillReturn]

42 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Was she? I don't recall anything from the text that supports this. 

Also, I'm not sure I understand... Rhaegar was recruiting women to produce a 3rd head, but Elia didn't know she was pregnant w/ Aegon? Then Rhaegar must have been looking for the 2nd head before he could look for the 3rd? I'm reading on my phone and I hate it, so maybe I missed something?

I always thought that they liked eachother. According to Allyria Dayne they were in love during the tourney at Harrenhal. But I'm not sure if you can trust her.

[corbon]

53 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Also, I'm not sure I understand... Rhaegar was recruiting women to produce a 3rd head, but Elia didn't know she was pregnant w/ Aegon? Then Rhaegar must have been looking for the 2nd head before he could look for the 3rd? I'm reading on my phone and I hate it, so maybe I missed something?

I don't think so. I got the same understanding. Its an internal logic flaw that I can't see addressed, only pointed out. But at least its acknowledged, thats a start.

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, TheBlackDragonWillReturn said:

I always thought that they liked eachother. According to Allyria Dayne they were in love during the tourney at Harrenhal. But I'm not sure if you can trust her.

I don't think Allyria is a very reliable source irt a possible romance between Ashara and Ned. Ned Dayne heard what he heard when he was a small kid, many years after the Tourney. And when we hear this, it's through Ned telling Arya he and Jon Snow are milk brothers and that Wylla is Jon's mum. And we also get Harwin telling Arya he didn't believe there was anything to it. 

My impression upon hearing Meera tell Bran about the Tourney has always been that it was Brandon who had a thing w/ Ashara.

 

[kissdbyfire]

6 minutes ago, corbon said:

I don't think so. I got the same understanding. Its an internal logic flaw that I can't see addressed, only pointed out. But at least its acknowledged, thats a start.

Ah ok then. I'm often unsure when reading stuff on the phone. 

[TheBlackDragonWillReturn]

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don't think Allyria is a very reliable source irt a possible romance between Ashara and Ned. Ned Dayne heard what he heard when he was a small kid, many years after the Tourney. And when we hear this, it's through Ned telling Arya he and Jon Snow are milk brothers and that Wylla is Jon's mum. And we also get Harwin telling Arya he didn't believe there was anything to it. 

My impression upon hearing Meera tell Bran about the Tourney has always been that it was Brandon who had a thing w/ Ashara.

 

Ah yes actually good point it could've been because Ser Barristan's thoughts said Stark and that could've been Brandon not Ned, she may've fallen in love with Brandon when he came to talk to her on Ned's behalf too. So good point.

Quote

She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty  might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

 

[corbon]

9 minutes ago, TheBlackDragonWillReturn said:

I always thought that they liked eachother.

I did too until ADwD showed that GRRM had suckered us all in.

We are led by Catelyn's suspicions about as to Jon's mother, and Cat's entire memory around the conversation with Ned is contaminated by her own conclusions.
Then we get Cersei reinforcing the idea that Jon might be Ned's by way of Ashara.
The we get Cat thinking about it again, and her certainty that whoever Jon's mother was, Ned loved her very much.
Then we get Ned Dayne telling Arya that his Aunt Allyria (Ashara's sister) says Ned and Ashara fell in love at Harrehal. That seems like a reliable source because its Ashara's family (until we investigate more closely).
Then we get Harwin, who actually says he doesn;t believe it, but points out that there would be nothing wrong in it.
Lastly we get shy Ned dancing with Ashara in Meera's story, with Brandon asking her 'on Ned's behalf'. The earlier information makes that look like Ned wanted her, and she complied, though in truth the story doesn't actually say that. There are many ways it can be read.

Notably a single piece of this evidence comes from any source who was actually around Ned or Ashara before the rebellion. It is entirely based on 'distant' observations by people who 'know':
 - Ned visited Ashara after the war at Starfall
 - Ned came back from the south with a bastard 
 - Ashara killed herself around the time of/after Ned's visit

In ADwD we learn that Barristan was crushing on Ashara, and around her, at the time of the events in question - so very likely paying close attention to things going on around her when he could.
He thinks she was dishonoured. He thinks she looked to Stark (which, we don;t know). He thinks she got pregnant (out of wedlock) and lost the baby, and killed herself in her misery.
At the same time, throughout the series he shows a great deal of respect for Ned Stark. Given his crush, thats not compatible with the idea that Ashara and Ned were lovers, Ned let her down and destroyed her life.
Further, Barristan has thoughts on young girls 'always' choosing fire men when they would be better of choosing mud men. Its clear than that Ashara didn't choose a mud man. When GRRM gives us the traits and definitions of mud men, they fit Ned perfectly.

So ADwD, in combination with Ned's lack of thoughts or concerning Ashara, turned me around on Ned and Ashara being an item at one time. 
 

9 minutes ago, TheBlackDragonWillReturn said:

According to Allyria Dayne they were in love during the tourney at Harrenhal. But I'm not sure if you can trust her.

Well, she has been betrothed for over 6 years to a young lord that her family is on excellent terms with. But not married yet.
The usual reason for such a long betrothal is youth. So it seems likely she's under 16, maybe even younger.
If she was old enough to have actually talked with Ashara bout Ashara's love life, she'd be in her mid-late twenties by now at the very least - Harrenhal was verging on 20 years ago now - if not 30+. So a 6 year engagement to a Lord of marriageable age, is pretty long for that culture, verging on ridiculous. 
All in all, it seems very likely that she's just a little girl engaging in gossip with her slightly younger nephew. This is also borne out by the inherent contradiction in N+A being in love while Ned bangs Wylla to make Jon. 
She's clearly not a reliable source.

One interesting idea (not mine originally, but I like it, despite a general lack of evidence) is that Allyria is in fact Ashara's bastard daughter, not still born after all, but claimed by Ashara's mother so the child need not grow up with the stigma of bastardy but have the life of a full noble. This fits with her likely age/betrothal length issue, puts her a few years older than Edric (so a 'knowledgeabe source' in his eyes), and would have real life parallels in our own world.

[TheBlackDragonWillReturn]

19 minutes ago, corbon said:

I did too until ADwD showed that GRRM had suckered us all in.

We are led by Catelyn's suspicions about as to Jon's mother, and Cat's entire memory around the conversation with Ned is contaminated by her own conclusions.
Then we get Cersei reinforcing the idea that Jon might be Ned's by way of Ashara.
The we get Cat thinking about it again, and her certainty that whoever Jon's mother was, Ned loved her very much.
Then we get Ned Dayne telling Arya that his Aunt Allyria (Ashara's sister) says Ned and Ashara fell in love at Harrehal. That seems like a reliable source because its Ashara's family (until we investigate more closely).
Then we get Harwin, who actually says he doesn;t believe it, but points out that there would be nothing wrong in it.
Lastly we get shy Ned dancing with Ashara in Meera's story, with Brandon asking her 'on Ned's behalf'. The earlier information makes that look like Ned wanted her, and she complied, though in truth the story doesn't actually say that. There are many ways it can be read.

Notably a single piece of this evidence comes from any source who was actually around Ned or Ashara before the rebellion. It is entirely based on 'distant' observations by people who 'know':
 - Ned visited Ashara after the war at Starfall
 - Ned came back from the south with a bastard 
 - Ashara killed herself around the time of/after Ned's visit

In ADwD we learn that Barristan was crushing on Ashara, and around her, at the time of the events in question - so very likely paying close attention to things going on around her when he could.
He thinks she was dishonoured. He thinks she looked to Stark (which, we don;t know). He thinks she got pregnant (out of wedlock) and lost the baby, and killed herself in her misery.
At the same time, throughout the series he shows a great deal of respect for Ned Stark. Given his crush, thats not compatible with the idea that Ashara and Ned were lovers, Ned let her down and destroyed her life.
Further, Barristan has thoughts on young girls 'always' choosing fire men when they would be better of choosing mud men. Its clear than that Ashara didn't choose a mud man. When GRRM gives us the traits and definitions of mud men, they fit Ned perfectly.

So ADwD, in combination with Ned's lack of thoughts or concerning Ashara, turned me around on Ned and Ashara being an item at one time. 
 

Well, she has been betrothed for over 6 years to a young lord that her family is on excellent terms with. But not married yet.
The usual reason for such a long betrothal is youth. So it seems likely she's under 16, maybe even younger.
If she was old enough to have actually talked with Ashara bout Ashara's love life, she'd be in her mid-late twenties by now at the very least - Harrenhal was verging on 20 years ago now - if not 30+. So a 6 year engagement to a Lord of marriageable age, is pretty long for that culture, verging on ridiculous. 
All in all, it seems very likely that she's just a little girl engaging in gossip with her slightly younger nephew. This is also borne out by the inherent contradiction in N+A being in love while Ned bangs Wylla to make Jon. 
She's clearly not a reliable source.

One interesting idea (not mine originally, but I like it, despite a general lack of evidence) is that Allyria is in fact Ashara's bastard daughter, not still born after all, but claimed by Ashara's mother so the child need not grow up with the stigma of bastardy but have the life of a full noble. This fits with her likely age/betrothal length issue, puts her a few years older than Edric (so a 'knowledgeabe source' in his eyes), and would have real life parallels in our own world.

So if indeed Allyria is Ashara's bastard child who's the father? Surely it would have to be Brandon right?

[corbon]

19 minutes ago, TheBlackDragonWillReturn said:

So if indeed Allyria is Ashara's bastard child who's the father? Surely it would have to be Brandon right?

He would seem to be the best candidate - "looked to" Stark, "fire man" attributes, had enough influence with Ashara to get her to dance with shy Ned, has textual history of sleeping with noble maidens...
But we may never know. And as I said, the mere idea of Allyria being Ashara's daughter is speculative. 

Anyway, this is verging into sidetrack territory...

[TheBlackDragonWillReturn]

16 minutes ago, corbon said:

He would seem to be the best candidate - "looked to" Stark, "fire man" attributes, had enough influence with Ashara to get her to dance with shy Ned, has textual history of sleeping with noble maidens...
But we may never know. And as I said, the mere idea of Allyria being Ashara's daughter is speculative. 

Anyway, this is verging into sidetrack territory...

Yeah it isn't very likely.

[chrisdaw]

I think Rhaegar earnestly thought he had to bring dragons back to save the world and told people where he had to what he could, should, or needed to, and they went along with him due to love, duty or because maybe he was right and who were they to try and stop him.

There is the groundwork for Rhaegar to be about this task, indeed almost everything we know about him speaks to it, in contrast the other characters are just there or particularly about other things that provide explanations for their actions or parts. For example we know this KG were fiercely loyal, and that provides an explanation for why they would follow Rhaegar down this path. Lyanna's feelings towards marriage with Robert explain her part.

[SFDanny]

I think it is a good idea to look out for homages to Tolkien in anything Martin writes, but I'm not convinced we can overlay the templet of a fellowship of nine from JRRT to GRRM. I'm convinced Rhaegar was building a political bloc to remove his father in the aftermath of Duskendale and Aerys's deep descent into madness. I think we can put Elia, Prince Lewyn, Ser Arthur, Ser Oswell, Lord Connington, Richard Lonmouth, Myles Mooten, and probably many others including the Martell brothers in that category. But how many people did he include in his belief in the prophecy of the Prince who was promised and the Dragon having three heads? I think that is a much smaller set of people. We only know that he talked to Elia about it, and corresponded with Maester Aemon as well on the topic. I'd be willing to bet Ser Arthur knew his thoughts better than anyone, and that may well mean he brought Ashara into that small circle. I think that is probably the case, and I too believe Ashara is Septa Lemore. As I've raised in the R+L+J discussion, I think there is reason to believe Rhaegar consulted the Ghost of High Heart, and I keep putting out the idea that Marwyn might have also been a part of this. 

The latter because of not only his expertise in the study of magic and prophecy, but also I've long believed that Rhaegar would want a maester he could trust to be with Lyanna during her childbirth. If you want my candidates for members of Rhaegar's innermost circle in which prophecy was discussed, then I would propose Ashara and Marwyn as the only two survivors.

As a side note on this, I find it exceedingly interesting that Marwyn is absent from Westeros in what looks like the immediate aftermath of Robert's Rebellion. His study abroad, including a trip to Asshai seems a great way to get out of Dodge.

[corbon]

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Rhaegar read something that led him to believe he, or later his son,  was the Prince that was Promised.  If we are to take Dany's vision in the HotU at face value (which can be contested, as some of her visions did not or are destined to not come to pass), Rhaegar sincerely believed that the dragon must have three heads.  We know that Elia was very frail after the birth of Rhaenys and was told after the birth of Aegon that she could not have any more children. Thus, I think the fellowship was created to bring about the 3rd head of the dragon.  

I feel like I gave this short shrift into a side track, so I'll try to go into it more thoroughly.

So far, so good. We are agreeing withe the evidence we have.

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Only, when the fellowship was created, Elia did not yet know she was pregnant with Aegon. 

I guess you could argue that the idea/plan is to create all three heads, thus it doesn't matter that Elia is still a viable mother.
Seems pretty dubious though.

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

The Tourney of Harrenhal was arranged by Oswell Whent and is widely considered to be a chance for Rhaegar to form a great council.  My thoughts are that it was also an attempt at recruiting women for the prophecy.  

Why would multiple women be needed? Sure one more would be enough, assuming Elia is already considered too high a risk. 

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I think Ashara was already involved in the fellowship and she could not risk bringing more attention to the Starks, because Lyanna was also recruited.  I think Rhaegar impregnated both Ashara and Lyanna, not knowing the Elia was already pregnant with Aegon. 

That doesn't work on the timeline though. By a long way, maybe a year or more. So we have to throw out a lot of evidence on timeline stuff to make this work. 
Can you show a working timeline that fits the data we have and this theory?

And we have to resolve Jon appearing to not be any older than Robb, when they were babies together. By this theory Jon is a year or more older than Robb. How do you resolve that?

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This is not a terrible idea, even if he did know about Aegon, because stillbirth and dying in childbirth are not uncommon occurences in the time period that this story is set. 

As far as that goes, yeah maybe. Its a terrible idea in execution though. Lets not make 'princes' to a wife. Lets make lots of little bastards to a harem.

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This is where the Martell's come into play.  I don't think Oberyn and Doran know of this, but I suspect Llewyn may have and suggested the tower. 

Ok. It seems reasonable that Lewyn might be aware of an isolated tower in the Prince's Pass where effectively no one ever goes.

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I also think that Queen Rhaella and Viserys' midnight escape to Dragonstone was a feint.  Instead, they went to Dorne.

So, we'll not just ignore the evidence of Jaime and Viserys (yeah, its not impossible they were tricked), but also that of everyone who thought Rhaella was at Dragonstone, Ned's belief that  Rhaella was there (conversation at ToJ) and even the story about Willem Darry and four men stealing the R+V+D away before the troops could hand them over to Stannis's new fleet.
Ok, assessing. Ned could have been tricked the same way others were I guess, the escape from Dragonstone could be just what Dany has been told, not truth. But Stannis complains that Robert blamed him for letting Darry and the Targs get away, which rather points to them actually have been on Dragonstone until shortly before he got there.

So no, I think Stannis accidentally proves this part of the theory wrong. At least, Rhaella and her two kids were definitely on Dragonstone and secretly left just before he got there.
I guess its possible they went from ToJ to Dragonstone, though that doesn't square up at all with whats in Ned's head.
This part is not working for me.

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

At the Tower of Joy, we have the pregnant Lyanna, the pregnant Ashara Dayne, and the pregnant Queen Rhaella, along with a young prince Viserys.  I suspect that Elia would have eventually joined, had it not been for Aerys and his paranoia. Rhaella dies giving birth to either another stillborn babe. 

Its a pretty wierd scene idea - Rhaegar's pregnant mother, two pregnant mistresses, all of whom give birth roughly together, plus his nephew, plus the three KG, and ow we definitely need multiple servants/attendants etc to look after everybody. How big do you thing the ToJ was?

Why is it that Rhaella's babe is the one to die?
Why would they then substitute Rhaegar's daughter as his sister? What purpose does that have?
Why do they let Dany get 'lost' to them? Well, ok, Willem Darry was looking after her and when he died there was no one else left.
Why Willem Darry. He was Master-at-Arms at the Red Keep. He trained Rhaegar, so I guess he may have been influenced back, more so perhaps than his brother the Kingsguard Jonor.

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Dany is the daughter of Rhaegar and Ashara - even Barristan states:

Thats not enough to make Dany Ashara's daughter.
Barristan is an old man remembering some of his youth. He loved Ashara, he loves Dany (in a different way), they both have purple eyes. They eyes don't actually have to be the same shade for his to think of them as the same. 

 

[Lady Rhodes]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Was she? I don't recall anything from the text that supports this. 

Also, I'm not sure I understand... Rhaegar was recruiting women to produce a 3rd head, but Elia didn't know she was pregnant w/ Aegon? Then Rhaegar must have been looking for the 2nd head before he could look for the 3rd? I'm reading on my phone and I hate it, so maybe I missed something?

Forgive me, perhaps I was unclear.

Rhaegar did not know Elia was pregnant, this he recruited Ashara and Lyanna. 
 

To everyone else, once I get my kids to sleep I will respond! Haha

[corbon]

2 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Forgive me, perhaps I was unclear.

Rhaegar did not know Elia was pregnant, this he recruited Ashara and Lyanna. 

You mean, he's got one head out of three, so he recruits two more mothers. 1+2=3?
Why not keep going with Elia?
If Elia's not safe, why not use a second woman to have #2 and #3?

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Forgive me, perhaps I was unclear.

Rhaegar did not know Elia was pregnant, this he recruited Ashara and Lyanna. 

But Elia was pregnant at Harrenhal and would have been pregnant enough for Aegon to be born some 2-3 months later.

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Forgive me, perhaps I was unclear.

Rhaegar did not know Elia was pregnant, this he recruited Ashara and Lyanna. 
 

To everyone else, once I get my kids to sleep I will respond! Haha

But... it’s the same, no? Rhaegar didn’t know Elia was pregnant w/ Aegon, so he’d still be looking for the 2nd head? 

[Lady Rhodes]

4 hours ago, corbon said:

The only piece of evidence that supports Ashara being smitten with Ned comes from a source who likely wasn't even born at the time - Ashara's 'sister' Allyria, gossiping with her 'nephew' as a little kid (Edric was probably 6 or less when they talked about it, since he left home at 6 to live with Berric Dondarrion).
Its extremely unreliable, not only due to dubious provenance but because the same provenance believes Ned was banging Wylla while in love with Ashara, something that absolutely defies the Ned Robert knew and the Ned inside whose head we've been.

I completely agree with your comments RE: Ned and Wylla.  Let me explain why it is less so.  Not only do we have these comments made to Arya, we also have:

Quote

Bran II from A Storm of Swords:

"Under Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch. The storm lord drank down the knight of skulls and kisses in a wine-cup war. The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench.

And we also have:

Quote

Barristan - the Kingbreaker - A Dance with Dragons

perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

And:

Quote

Catelyn II from A Game of Thrones

That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face. 

And:

Quote

Eddard XII from A Game of Thrones

"Honor," she spat. "How dare you play the noble lord with me! What do you take me for? You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole?

So, while you are correct we have no direct evidence, we have an abundance of speculation from Barristan, Catelyn, Cersei, Meera Reed, in addition to the gossip previously mentioned.  Together, it certainly makes the case for a mutual affection.