The Fellowship of the Prince that was Promised

[Alexis-something-Rose]

16 hours ago, corbon said:

Yep. That doesn't preclude it being "winter", though the pollen reference is much stronger.

 

Ned's recollection is that he was coming down from the Eyrie. The Arryns don't winter at the Eyrie, they winter at the Gates of the Moon. If he's coming down from the Eyrie, then the Eyrie was reopened and made fit for people to live in it again after some 2 years of winter.

[Lady Rhodes]

19 hours ago, St Daga said:

It's hard to deny that GRRM is a fan of LotR,  or that he certainly is capable of homages, although I am not sure he would reuse the Fellowship, or if he did, it would have the same amount of numbers. We already discussed that most of Tolkien's Fellowship lived, except Boromir, and then Gandolf who is thought to die but comes back as a super charged version of himself in white. If we want to look at an inversion, then does that include someone in your Fellowship linked to black?

I don't think we will ever hear GRRM call this band of comrades that I am proposing as a "fellowship"; nonetheless, I think that is essentially what it is.  Your mention of the black is interesting - like take the black? Maybe Aemon Targaryen? On another tangent, could he be the character that GRRM regrets killing? 

19 hours ago, St Daga said:

but I think that Elia had to not only have known she was pregnant at Harrenhal, but would have been in the later states of her pregnancy.

I would be interested into hearing your reasoning for this, because it seems like this is one topic that @corbon and I agree on.  I cannot see how see how it would be possible given her medical history.

20 hours ago, St Daga said:

this doesn't mean that Rhaegar might not have used Harrenhal to scout some prospective females since there was no guarantee that Elia would survive her second pregnancy. But when she does, I don't see any reason that he and Elia would not want to create the third head themselves. Especially if Elia was as invested as Rheagar, which your theory hints at. Of course, as we have discussed, I think Elia did have a third pregnancy and gave birth to a living child, even though this resulted in Elia's death. I think that child was Dany. 

However, at this point, I don't see why Rhaegar thinks making two or three children is in his best benefit. After all, if he has two or three more living children, how does he decide which is his third head? Now he has four or five heads. It makes more sense to me that he would want to have his three heads come from the same father/mother dynamic, he and Elia.

The bolded section is exactly why I propose the recruitment event.  They have no way of knowing how a second pregnancy would turn out, but after the fraught nature (six month recovery is certainly fraught), they had reason to believe it would be difficult. However, you are forgetting a key point after the birth of Aegon, which is why I dispute the section of your reply that I italicized.  Maester's now explicitly told Rhaegar and Elia that another pregnancy would kill her.  Rhaegar was certainly flawed in his thinking (as I mentioned in an earlier reply, marrying three people isn't necessarily ideal), but I don't think he meant any ill will to Elia, which can be demonstrated in his conversation with Jaime.  He wasn't about to kill her for a prophecy (which is incredibly ironic, given the turn of events, but also is in keeping with GRRM's style and themes. Road to hell and best intentions, etc.)

20 hours ago, St Daga said:

As I mentioned above, what if all these children survive?

This is an excellent question. As I suggested earlier, I am thinking that his aim was expediency and urgency.  Whatever he read that made him obsessed with the prophecy must have made him realize the threat was urgent. Given the fact that the Others have returned, this was not wrong.  But in this time period, how many people, children included, die from colds, falling from a horse, etc.? Let alone miscarriages, stillbirths, etc.  He has to have three survive in order to save the world (Rhaegar's view), so he has contingency plans.  Who will he decide? I am not sure it matters. Perhaps it does, though. Maybe it has to be a girl and that is the reason - he has to ensure he has a daughter to fulfill the three heads of the dragon and get his "Visenya".  That is another reason for multiple chances.  Again - I am not saying that his reasoning isn't incredibly flawed. But I think my theory can dovetail into the frame of mind Rhaegar may have been in. 

20 hours ago, St Daga said:

Also, what would Ashara and Lyanna have been thinking that made them accept they should both be impregnated by a married man, a man whose wife was currently pregnant, and then both shack up together?

This is the strongest point against my theory, I will grant you.  Lyanna loathed Robert for his whoring, drunken ways.  My thoughts are that she and Ashara were persuaded by a higher calling - to save the realm from a great threat.  With Lyanna being raised in the North, she would obviously be concerned about the northern people, and the Starks seemed to hold the Watch in high esteem. The Dayne's are also a First Man family, and, I would argue, that Dawn is most likely Lightbringer. Both of these women may have been raised on stories of the great threat and could have been persuaded to be apart of something bigger, to save the realm.

20 hours ago, St Daga said:

Tolkein's Fellowship was also set up around the goal of taking a cursed item on a journey to be destroyed, which seems like an important concept that GRRM might like to maintain, if he was going to do a Fellowship homage, so perhaps a Fellowship charged with keeping these children safe as well as trying to reunite them at the correct time is something to consider.

This may not be far off.  As I mentioned earlier, I believe Rhaegar, Elia, Lyanna, Ashara, Arthur and Oswell Whent are part of the fellowship, but I am iffy on the remaining three.  Aemon Targaryen, Lewyn Martell, Marwyn the Mage (I really like that idea - it was noted that he went MIA in Westeros after the events of the rebellion, and we know from Mirri Maz Duur that he was in Asshai…)  But Jon Connington, Willem Darry, Queen Rhaella...I am open to thoughts on the other three.  Jon Conn could fit and it would explain his attachment to Young Griff - he could see it as continuing Rhaegar's crusade. (Yes, I know he has a love/adoration for Rhaegar that could also explain it. I am just theorizing.)

@corbon I think I got too far into the weeds on the Ned and Ashara and Dragonstone bit.  The main aspect of my theory is the Fellowship.  Perhaps we can work from common ground there?  I believe you and I came to some agreement that Elia was not far along in her pregnancy at Harrenhal.

2 hours ago, St Daga said:

Another thought I had on your Fellowship members is how it would seem they should include Rhaegar, as well as the people whom he "had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants"  which would then already makes seve of nine. It's possible that Ashara could have been one of these riders, but Elia would not have been, since she was back on Dragonstone with Prince Aegon. If Lyanna makes one more, then we are only missing one person to make the total of nine. Do you think that at this time three of the kingsguard (Dayne, Whent, Martell) would have been traveling with Rhaegar? Also hard to imagine that the Red Keep's Master at Arms, Willem Darry, would have been allowed to ride out with Rhaegar. I am just trying to feel out/fit the proposed members of your Fellowship fit into what we know of this world. Perhaps I am mistaken to think that Rhaegar and his half dozen "closest friends and confidants" would be included in this Fellowship?

And just because I was looking at that quote from The World Book, I again question were Princess Rhaenys was, because she is not mentioned as being on Dragonstone with Elia and Aegon. Where is their two year old daughter, and did that have something to do with Rhaegar's mission?

Excellent thought.  This would apply - though I don't think Martell was riding off with them (he is said to have went to the Trident, so I am guessing that he was still in King's Landing.)  But yes, I think this may have been a meeting for the fellowship - perhaps on the isle of faces.  

Your question about Rhaenys, too, is a good one.  I found myself wondering how Elia got from Dragonstone to King's Landing during all of this. 

2 hours ago, Lady Anna said:

What would be Lyanna's and Ashara's motivations to go along with this. Cause it seems a risky situation, to say the least. They're two highborn ladies who decide to serve as incubators on the off chance one of them gives birth to a prophetic prince? What would happen after? Even if one of them was succesful the other would be an unmarried mother whose reputation would have been destroyed. The only option is if they were forced to do it, which just makes this story sinister and honestly evil.

I addressed this a bit above, but my thoughts are that they both have been raised in stories of the First Men and the original fight against the Others.  Would their reputations be ruined if they were the ones who helped save humanity? That kind of logic.

Perhaps I should change this to the "cult of the Prince that was Promised".  The thinking involved would have required that sort of mindset of its group.

[Lady Rhodes]

@corbon 

 

see Screenshot 

[Lady Rhodes]

Okay, here is the timeline that I created, along with some explanation.  Of particular note, it was previously mentioned that the tourney was planned in winter, thus travel was not impossible in winter and did not impede functions.  All true! But I think you will find, given the time markers we are given, winter has to have been some sort of impediment to travel.  It is very hard to expand the events from Aegon's birth to The Battle of the Bells to last a year. The only way it realistically fits is to accept that winter was awful and affected movements.

1.       Elia and Rhaegar are betrothed in 279 AC.

2.       They are married in early 280 AC.

3.       Rhaenys is born in late 280 AC - Oct-Nov. Elia bedridden for 6 months.

4.       Tourney of Harrenhal is April-May 281. (This would have Elia either not pregnant or within 1-2 months and account for being bedridden for 6 months)

5.       Aegon born on Dragonstone in December 281-January 282 AC. The quote we actually have suggests that he was born “near” the new year, so there is a bit of flexibility here.

6.       Rhaegar and “companions” leave Dragonstone for the Riverlands at the end of January 282 AC

7.       Brandon is in Riverrun and duels Littlefinger. He leaves to join the northmen heading south. January 282 AC

8.       Lyanna disappears shortly thereafter – early February 282 AC.

9.       Brandon hears of Lyanna’s disappearance and rides south with a few retainers.  As Lady Dustin notes, he was incredibly skilled with a horse, like a centaur, so despite the weather, he could most likely get there quite quickly. By my estimates, he reached King’s Landing no later than end of February 282 AC.

10.   Brandon is taken capture. Rickard takes his 200 northmen south.  Now, they were already heading south, so they wouldn’t have to take time to garrison. The north is as big as the other six kingdoms combined, so they were a good way into their journey already. Still, it is a large party and these are winter roads.  He does not get there until beginning of April 282 AC.

11. At this point, Aerys II tells Jon Arryn he wants the heads of Robert and Ned and Jon refuses.  He calls his banners and from this point forward, the rebellion starts and last approximately a year. Given that this is said in the same paragraph as he is talking about the Sack of King’s Landing, I am presuming that Ned considers the “end” of the war to be the sack and the lifting of the siege of Storm’s End as loose ends to be tied up. (Game – Ned II) We will use April 282 AC as the start point for the rebellion.

*Again, I cannot emphasize enough that I rely heavily on the fact that this rebellion occurred in winter and have created my timeline to reflect such events. This is especially key because the Battle of the Bells is said to be the first battle of 283 AC. That means steps 12-15 have to occur between April and January.

12. Fleeing the Vale –

Ned- From the Eyrie, through the Mountains of the Moon, to the Fingers would take, by my estimate at least two weeks because we have a similar parallel to compare it to. Ned would be going alone or with only a couple of companions, given the fact that Gulltown was declaring their loyalty to the Targaryen’s and it would have been reckless to assume other houses would automatically be loyal to the rebel cause, he would not have been traveling on the roads; more likely,  he would be traveling by night or off road or both. Compare this to a significant portion of A Storm of Swords has the Hound and Arya traveling the Vale, in autumn weather, traveling not necessarily secretly, but certainly using discretion. For this reason, I speculate that Ned was not able to take the boat to the Three Sister’s until Mid May 282 AC.

Robert – From the Eyrie, he went to Gulltown, and after an unknown amount of time, the cities defenses fell and he was able to flee to Storm’s End. Because of the known date of Battle of the Bells (first battle of 283), I am assuming that he did not leave until mid-June 282.

13. Travel time from Three Sisters to Winterfell – Ned did not arrive until Early-Mid June 282 AC. Robert would have had to have traveled by sea during winter at a much further distance than Ned. He did not arrive in Storm’s End until Mid-August 282 AC.

14. Robert caught wind of some of the stormlords going again him, so he marched to Summerhall, fighting 3 battles in one day. Then, he returned to Storm’s End, turned enemies into friends and then marched to Ashford. To go from Storm’s End to Summerhall, Battle, Summerhall to Storm’s End, build alliances, and then March to Ashford. I believe this would bring us to mid-October 282 AC.

Meanwhile, Ned is garnering his forces in Winterfell, calling his banners. We have an idea how long this took during Game/Clash with Robb and Bran, and that was occurring during summer. Ned does not depart Winterfell until late August 282 AC.

15. Ned joins with Jon Arryn’s host and they negotiate with Hoster Tully.  My guess is they arrive at Riverrun by mid-October 282 AC and did not leave until mid-December 282 AC. Meanwhile, Robert has fought Ashford and is marching to the Stoney Sept. This occurs from mid-October until the new year 283, including his time "hiding" at Stoney Sept.

16. Battle of the Bells - first battle of 283 AC - January. 

17. It was after the Battle of the Bells that Aerys began taking the rebellion seriously and there were a lot of movements on the Targaryen side. He sent Barristan and Jonothor to rally remaining loyalist forces and Doran Martell sent forces as well to supplement force that Rhaegar was gathering. On the rebel side, Ned married Catelyn and Jon married Lysa and, if I recall correctly, they were together at least a fortnight. Between all of these movements and events, I am going with the Battle of the Trident not occurring until end of March 283 AC.

18. The chase to the Sack of King’s Landing begins! Between Tywin deciding to march and Ned’s forces heading down, I believe the Sack of King’s Landing occurs in April 283 AC, which brings us to the time frame given, lasting about a year.

[corbon]

9 hours ago, St Daga said:

I wasn't specific. Sorry. Not callous towards Elia (if she knew what he was up to), but callous in appearance to all the people who witnessed the action. Rhaegar might not have cared,

Yes, I think so.

9 hours ago, St Daga said:

but perception is important. It sounds like the general population of the tourney attendees was already shocked by the appearance and decline of Aerys, and then to watch his heir act in a way that could be a perceived insult towards his pregnant wife, might have combined to make more people doubt the Targaryen's than support them. 

Its possible. 
I still think the whole 'shock' thing is overblown. The Starks were mad, yes and Robert, clearly not happy, though he laughed it off, but 'all the smiles died' is just as likely a 'local' reaction from Ned's perception, and/or a 'surprise' thing.

Yandel's account is a little different. While he documents the Stark/Robert reactions that fit with Ned's recall, he says that a faction of the court immediately started telling Aerys that this was a political move blah blah blah. I other words (IMO), different people reacted different once past the initial surprise and many thought to turn it to their advantage as much as be 'saddened' in some way by it.

I think its pretty telling that there is no record of any displeasure from Elia, and no record of any further discord between Elia and Rhaegar in the aftermath if anything, the opposite). If Elia and Rhaegar present a united front after the initial surprise, then I think most people would think much less badly of it and speculate in other ways.
Of course, this whole line of thinking can reverse in a moment with some new info filling in gaps

8 hours ago, St Daga said:

My gut instinct is it was Brandon that was perhaps interested in Ashara at Harrenhal, but I do wonder if perhaps Robert didn't get drunk and past frisky and overstep himself with Ashara.

Its not impossible, but its also not Robert's style. Robert wants fun fucks and apparent willingness, not domination fucks and power.

8 hours ago, St Daga said:

As to the information from Allyria via Ned Dayne, I find myself torn. While I think it's questionable to take a story told by a child (since we don't know how old Edric and Allyria were at the time she told him) to another child as being correct in details, even broad ones. If this was my real life, I would have some doubt and want to confirm with an adult who had some information before deciding if it's true or not.

Would you when you were 7? or 6? or 12? OIf you'd heard an adult speaking it (servants gossip perhaps)?

If so, you'd be a pretty unusual child, even more so in that society.

8 hours ago, St Daga said:

On the other hand, GRRM does use his characters to give us hints about the past, so it's possible that GRRM is using Allyria via Ned to give us some valuable information. I sometimes chase my thoughts around in circles over these kinds of questions in regards to the text. 

Right.
Thing is, we've been given a bunch of hints as too Jon's mother. Most of them have to be wrong, because only one can be right. What GRRM has done very well is make his red herrings very realistic in that they follow reasonable, logical thought paths for people with no actual experience relating to the truth (the three public facts that lead to N+A=J speculation) and have subtle differences from different directions.
Catleyn thinks Ned loved Jon's mother very much and Ashara might be the mother.
Cersei suggest lust and betrayal, throwing Ashara in as one of several options - dornish peasant he raped, whore, grieving sister with stolen child.
Allyria/Edric suggest N+A in love but Wylla as Jon's mother (Ashara as mother doesn't look good for their House, so they have Wylla who is an extra option most don't know about or have likely met and dismissed as mother).

[kissdbyfire]

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

4.       Tourney of Harrenhal is April-May 281. (This would have Elia either not pregnant or within 1-2 months and account for being bedridden for 6 months)

What makes you think the Tourney happened in Apr/May? I’m curious. 

[corbon]

7 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Ned's recollection is that he was coming down from the Eyrie. The Arryns don't winter at the Eyrie, they winter at the Gates of the Moon. If he's coming down from the Eyrie, then the Eyrie was reopened and made fit for people to live in it again after some 2 years of winter.

Not coming down, down.
The Eyrie is his normal base. 'Home" (other than Winterfell). 'Down from the Eyrie' is the sort of language that covers the recent past of that present as well as that present. "Coming down" would be the present of that past. He could have come from anywhere in the Vale in the last month or more and be 'down from the Eyrie'. He could be staying in Gulltown for 3 months and be 'down from the Eyrie'.

Quote

He could no longer tell the difference between waking and sleeping. The memory came creeping upon him in the darkness, as vivid as a dream. It was the year of false spring, and he was eighteen again, down from the Eyrie to the tourney at Harrenhal. 

 

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I would be interested into hearing your reasoning for this, because it seems like this is one topic that @corbon and I agree on.  I cannot see how see how it would be possible given her medical history.

The bolded section is exactly why I propose the recruitment event.  They have no way of knowing how a second pregnancy would turn out, but after the fraught nature (six month recovery is certainly fraught), they had reason to believe it would be difficult. However, you are forgetting a key point after the birth of Aegon, which is why I dispute the section of your reply that I italicized.  Maester's now explicitly told Rhaegar and Elia that another pregnancy would kill her. 

So...
The recruitment event is after the difficult first pregnancy and  either a) 'just in case' she can't manage #2, but still trying #2 (ie #2 pregnancy is unknown yet) or b ) 'just in case' #2 fails or she can't manage #3 (ie #2 pregnancy is known).
Is that right?

Seems pretty slim.

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This is an excellent question. As I suggested earlier, I am thinking that his aim was expediency and urgency.  Whatever he read that made him obsessed with the prophecy must have made him realize the threat was urgent.

Where's the evidence for this other than your need?

This still doesn't address two things.
1. How can you possibly stress 'urgency' in a generational timespan?
2. When was prophecy ever so specific?

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Given the fact that the Others have returned, this was not wrong. 

No one knew they had at that time.

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

But in this time period, how many people, children included, die from colds, falling from a horse, etc.? Let alone miscarriages, stillbirths, etc.  He has to have three survive in order to save the world (Rhaegar's view), so he has contingency plans.  Who will he decide? I am not sure it matters. Perhaps it does, though. Maybe it has to be a girl and that is the reason - he has to ensure he has a daughter to fulfill the three heads of the dragon and get his "Visenya".  That is another reason for multiple chances.  Again - I am not saying that his reasoning isn't incredibly flawed. But I think my theory can dovetail into the frame of mind Rhaegar may have been in. 

Yep, I can understand all that. 

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This is the strongest point against my theory, I will grant you.  Lyanna loathed Robert for his whoring, drunken ways. 

I don't know about loathed. She just knew he wouldn't change and didn't want to be his wife. 

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

My thoughts are that she and Ashara were persuaded by a higher calling - to save the realm from a great threat. 

Thats a huge sell, for the role they will play. 

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

With Lyanna being raised in the North, she would obviously be concerned about the northern people, and the Starks seemed to hold the Watch in high esteem. The Dayne's are also a First Man family, and, I would argue, that Dawn is most likely Lightbringer. Both of these women may have been raised on stories of the great threat and could have been persuaded to be apart of something bigger, to save the realm.

Lyanna in particular, you could see her giving up her life-path to go fight the existential threat. But to basically just become a mobile womb? I think your sell just got too hard.

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

 

@corbon I think I got too far into the weeds on the Ned and Ashara and Dragonstone bit.  The main aspect of my theory is the Fellowship.  Perhaps we can work from common ground there? 

Sure. 
Don;t forget though at the end its got to be a cohesive whole.

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I believe you and I came to some agreement that Elia was not far along in her pregnancy at Harrenhal.

Well, that its a reasonable possibility, definitely. I don;t have a strong opinion because the timeline data is a bit contradictory and hard to keep straight all the time. 

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I addressed this a bit above, but my thoughts are that they both have been raised in stories of the First Men and the original fight against the Others.  Would their reputations be ruined if they were the ones who helped save humanity? That kind of logic.

As above, to fight it? Fine. To be incubators? Less fine.

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Perhaps I should change this to the "cult of the Prince that was Promised".  The thinking involved would have required that sort of mindset of its group.

Yeah. And not many of the members have demonstrated cult-accepting-like qualities.

[Lady Rhodes]

56 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

What makes you think the Tourney happened in Apr/May? I’m curious. 

If Rhaenys was born is late 280 (assuming Oct-Nov) April-May falls after her six month bedridden state. I believe that there was a longer gap between the tourney and Lyanna’s disappearance. It does not make sense for Ned to travel from Harrenhal back to the Eyrie prior to Brandon and Catelyn’s wedding, which was to be held at the beginning of 282, if the tourney was late in the year. We know Ned was in the Vale/Eyrie when Aerys called for their heads, ie he was not en route to Riverrun for the wedding.

[Lady Rhodes]

27 minutes ago, corbon said:

Seems pretty slim.

How so? It seems entirely plausible given his sense of urgency toward achieving this prophecy and Elia’s medical history.

29 minutes ago, corbon said:

Where's the evidence for this other than your need?

This still doesn't address two things.
1. How can you possibly stress 'urgency' in a generational timespan?
2. When was prophecy ever so specific

I am not sure what you mean by generational timespan. Can you explain? Regarding 2, we have no idea what he read but we have been told that he read something that made him believe that he had to become a warrior and become obsessed with prophecy. Something made him get the ball rolling.

also, again, if we take Dany’s vision at face value, he is with Elia and Aegon and still says that he needs one more! To me, these things collectively say “urgency”.

36 minutes ago, corbon said:

Lyanna in particular, you could see her giving up her life-path to go fight the existential threat. But to basically just become a mobile womb? I think your sell just got too hard.

I am not saying she wanted to die. She was a wild spirit and didn’t want to be assigned her fate, she wanted to have a choice. We have heard nothing to say she would be against having a child of her own choice. In some regard, she is similar to Cersei, she didn’t want to be “sold” off to some lord. But choosing to be a part of something meaningful, reputation be damned? It sounds like her personality.

40 minutes ago, corbon said:

Yeah. And not many of the members have demonstrated cult-accepting-like qualities.

Hard to say since most of them are dead.

yes, a cohesive end - so @corbon, are there areas of agreement or tepid agreement that we could build upon?

[corbon]

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Okay, here is the timeline that I created, along with some explanation. 

I am in general agreement with nearly all of this, though I'd give a wider time-frame on most events - more wiggle room.

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Of particular note, it was previously mentioned that the tourney was planned in winter, thus travel was not impossible in winter and did not impede functions.  All true! But I think you will find, given the time markers we are given, winter has to have been some sort of impediment to travel.  It is very hard to expand the events from Aegon's birth to The Battle of the Bells to last a year. The only way it realistically fits is to accept that winter was awful and affected movements.

I'm not so sure. Westeros is a big place and pace of travel an vary. I usually find that events move too fast, not too slow, especially in the early part of the war.

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

4.       Tourney of Harrenhal is April-May 281. (This would have Elia either not pregnant or within 1-2 months and account for being bedridden for 6 months)

It definitely can fit here IMO. Why though? Why not August, September, etc? 
I'm seeing April as the earliest based on Jan280 marriage +9 months October280 birth + 6 months bedridden April 281. 
I guess you are assuming Elia wouldn;t travel if she knows she is pregnant, but you need to take into account the later end of the marriage-baby1-6monthsinbed timescale as well as the earlier.

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

5.       Aegon born on Dragonstone in December 281-January 282 AC. The quote we actually have suggests that he was born “near” the new year, so there is a bit of flexibility here.

Right, so his conception must be around February-May. 

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

16. Battle of the Bells - first battle of 283 AC - January. 

What/where is the reference to the BotB being in 283?
Not disputing it, just a lot is effectively counted back from that. I can't find any reference. 

 

In general, there's lots to discuss,, lots to agree with and to question, and its going to fast, we're both ahead of each other.

 

 

 

[corbon]

20 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

How so? It seems entirely plausible given his sense of urgency toward achieving this prophecy and Elia’s medical history.

You haven't demonstrated any sense of urgency, only claimed it, which makes this a circular argument (this part only). The thinking is required by urgency and urgency is indicated by the thinking. 
Your 'indications' below don't work at all as indications for urgency for me.
Elia's medical history if anything would mean go slower, go cautiously.

20 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am not sure what you mean by generational timespan. Can you explain?

He's talking about the next generation being the key people, the three heads of the dragon. So anywhere from 20-50 years in the future when they've been born, grown up, and possibly grown into middle age even. Hence a generational timescale.

So what difference does a few months or even a couple of years make compared to getting things right and keeping the whole kingdom on track at the same time?

20 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Regarding 2, we have no idea what he read but we have been told that he read something that made him believe that he had to become a warrior and become obsessed with prophecy. Something made him get the ball rolling.

First, that appears to have been when he was under a different understanding - that he was the key person, not his children.
Second, that doesn't imply urgency. It implies preparation. You don;t become a warrior overnight, its something you train a lifetime for.

All that we see here is that something he read made him think he might be tPtwP and have be a warrior rather than an academic. So he began to prepare for that roll. That doesn;t put any significant timespan or timetable on things at all - merely that he thought then it would be within his lifetime - perhaps only because 'he' fitted the bill, not because the bill was specific timewise.

Later, he seems to have transferred that idea to his kids. So now its their lifetimes. Still unlikely to be actually time-specific, more likely to be 'person/people specific'.

20 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

also, again, if we take Dany’s vision at face value, he is with Elia and Aegon and still says that he needs one more! To me, these things collectively say “urgency”.

Again that doesn't actually imply urgency or a short timeframe even if it gives you that feel. Its purely about the people/characters. The dragon has three heads. His son is tPtwP. So Rhaegar thinks things are 'going down' in his son's lifetime and his son must have two siblings. Which means he has to get another one, sure, but doesn't mean it has to happen within the next 5 minutes, or 1 year, or 3 years, or any other specific time. It just has to happen. 

I'll say it again, when is prophecy ever that specific?

20 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am not saying she wanted to die.

Didn't say you were. Though I'd point out that pretty much everything we know of her tells us that to her, being stuck in a (metaphorical) hole incubating babies is the equivalent of death. She's an actor, a doer, as well as a wild spirit. 
Having babies so the babies can save the world is a passive life. 

20 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

She was a wild spirit and didn’t want to be assigned her fate, she wanted to have a choice. We have heard nothing to say she would be against having a child of her own choice.

That part I agree with. Its not childbearing itself I think she'd have a problem with.

20 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

In some regard, she is similar to Cersei, she didn’t want to be “sold” off to some lord. But choosing to be a part of something meaningful, reputation be damned? It sounds like her personality.

Not to me. Not this way. Absolutely yes, if it was to go off on a quest, fight battles, etc etc, even having ababy in the midst of all that.  But to be relegated to an incubator and 'do' nothing'. Nothing could sound less Lyanna-like.

20 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Hard to say since most of them are dead.

We have some clues though.

20 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

so @corbon, are there areas of agreement or tepid agreement that we could build upon?

Of course. Mostly on 'facts', not so much so far on interpretations. 

[Lady Rhodes]

17 minutes ago, corbon said:

I am in general agreement with nearly all of this, though I'd give a wider time-frame on most events - more wiggle room.

I can even respect that - more wiggle room. Glad we are on consensus here!

18 minutes ago, corbon said:

I guess you are assuming Elia wouldn;t travel if she knows she is pregnant, but you need to take into account the later end of the marriage-baby1-6monthsinbed timescale as well as the earlier.

Yes, that is essentially it.  If we wanted to expand on that, I could see April-June, but I doubt much past that.

19 minutes ago, corbon said:

What/where is the reference to the BotB being in 283?
Not disputing it, just a lot is effectively counted back from that. I can't find any reference. 

To be fair, when checking my dates I defer to the Worldbook and the wiki. My reasoning is that while Maester Yandel had reason to appeal to the Baratheon's and Lannister's, some facts are not disputable, dates being one of them.

However, there is this quote from Jon Con in Dance:

Quote

Seventeen years had come and gone since the Battle of the Bells, yet the sound of bells ringing still tied a knot in his guts.

Given that this was probably year 300 AC, 17 years would be 283.

Yes, lots to discuss and quibble on!

 

[corbon]

9 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

@corbon 

 

see Screenshot 

thanks.

Doesn't say much though. 
It (lemon tree in bravos) means... something. Like Dany's host in Bravos had Dornish connections. Witness the pact. 
Done. 

[corbon]

Just now, Lady Rhodes said:

To be fair, when checking my dates I defer to the Worldbook and the wiki. My reasoning is that while Maester Yandel had reason to appeal to the Baratheon's and Lannister's, some facts are not disputable, dates being one of them.

Problem is, non of them reference the dates, they just claim them. At least as I can find looking quickly.

Just now, Lady Rhodes said:

However, there is this quote from Jon Con in Dance:

Given that this was probably year 300 AC, 17 years would be 283.

yes, I found that. But but its 17 years come and gone, which means somewhere between 17 and 18 years ago. Parts of 282 will fit that bill too.
AFAICS though, this is what the 283 BoB date has probably been based on - which is flawed IMO. 

Just now, Lady Rhodes said:

Yes, lots to discuss and quibble on!

I definitely don't consider myself an expert in the detailed timeline stuff. 
@SFDanny and @Rhaenys Targaryen (IIRC) are the ones that I think of as more experts in the real detail stuff on timelines - not them alone, but they are the ones that usually come in with the very good explanations of detailed reasons why various timings fit or don't.

[Lady Rhodes]

2 minutes ago, corbon said:

You haven't demonstrated any sense of urgency, only claimed it, which makes this a circular argument (this part only). The thinking is required by urgency and urgency is indicated by the thinking. 
Your 'indications' below don't work at all as indications for urgency for me.
Elia's medical history if anything would mean go slower, go cautiously.

You are right; we are going in circles.  I am claiming that Rhaegar must have felt that urgency was required otherwise he would not carry forth in a reckless manner because YES, slower and cautious would be the better option.  I will see if I can find anything more substantial. Still, I cannot imagine how Elia telling Rhaegar that she named their son Aegon and him immediately saying "we need one more" wouldn't count as urgent, though? (Again, we are taking that vision at face value.)

5 minutes ago, corbon said:

So anywhere from 20-50 years in the future when they've been born, grown up, and possibly grown into middle age even. Hence a generational timescale.

 

10 minutes ago, corbon said:

'll say it again, when is prophecy ever that specific?

Ok, I see what you mean now. To be fair, I don't know. I don't know if we have that kind of textual proof, and if that shoots my theory in the water, so be it. But, everything that we have learned about Rhaegar: Barristan's testimony, Ned's inner monologue, Jaime's thoughts, Aemon's testimony...None of this adds up to someone who rapes and murders, wantonly cheats on his wife, or travels for the sake of traveling the riverlands.  He is driven by purpose, and so, I don't think he does anything without the purpose in mind. This sort of drive can lead to incredibly flawed thinking, of course.  So, the best answer I have is that he had to have a reason for pursuing Lyanna Stark - for naming her queen of love and beauty and for "kidnapping" her. I am just branching that purpose out into other mysteries that we know of (Who is the father of Ashara's baby? Is she alive? etc) and seeing if there is a way to tie them together.  I think this theory has the potential to do that.

18 minutes ago, corbon said:

That part I agree with. Its not childbearing itself I think she'd have a problem with.

Okay, we are getting somewhere!

18 minutes ago, corbon said:

Not to me. Not this way. Absolutely yes, if it was to go off on a quest, fight battles, etc etc, even having ababy in the midst of all that.  But to be relegated to an incubator and 'do' nothing'. Nothing could sound less Lyanna-like.

Well, she is only an "incubator", as you say, for 9 months. After that, the fellowship is still intact. Fighting, quests and having a baby is the midst of it all is exactly what I am proposing her role was. 

 

Yes, clues on people who are "dead". Who do you think is alive? Any suggestions on who may be the other 3 in this fellowship?

[Lady Rhodes]

18 minutes ago, corbon said:

thanks.

Doesn't say much though. 
It (lemon tree in bravos) means... something. Like Dany's host in Bravos had Dornish connections. Witness the pact. 
Done. 

Eh, I think you are stretching.  

You are correct it doesn't say much, but what it does say is that her home, the one that she associates with the Red Door and Lemontrees, does not jive with known Braavosi climate. And picking up on that means-something.  Vague, yes. Dornish connection? Certainly. But you can't have symbolism for the sake of symbolism - Lemons at her home in Braavos symbolizes her host having Dornish connections.  This story is still grounded in principles of reality and the reality of the climate dictates that this cannot be accurate. 

17 minutes ago, corbon said:

AFAICS though, this is what the 283 BoB date has probably been based on - which is flawed IMO. 

I am open for moving that date - it makes things very difficult. I could see it shifted.

It was actually a conversation that Rhaenys Targaryen was involved in years ago that I found my old outline. You and I seem to have roughly the same thoughts, though, in regards to the timeline and that should suffice, I think, for our discussion.

[Lady Rhodes]

Quote

Dany turned back to the squire. "I know little of Rhaegar. Only the tales Viserys told, and he was a little boy when our brother died. What was he truly like?"

The old man considered a moment. "Able. That above all. Determined, deliberate, dutiful, single-minded. There is a tale told of him . . . but doubtless Ser Jorah knows it as well."

"I would hear it from you."

"As you wish," said Whitebeard. "As a young boy, the Prince of Dragonstone was bookish to a fault. He was reading so early that men said Queen Rhaella must have swallowed some books and a candle whilst he was in her womb. Rhaegar took no interest in the play of other children. The maesters were awed by his wits, but his father's knights would jest sourly that Baelor the Blessed had been born again. Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him. No one knows what it might have been, only that the boy suddenly appeared early one morning in the yard as the knights were donning their steel. He walked up to Ser Willem Darry, the master-at-arms, and said, 'I will require sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior.'"

"And he was!" said Dany, delighted.

These are the qualities that we have for Rhaegar from a reputable source. This seems in line with someone who would not have taken Lyanna without reason, left his wife on Dragonstone after she nearly died giving birth without reason, or sent the realm into turmoil (which he doubtlessly knew would happen when Lyanna disappeared) without reason.

"It is not for such as me to say what might have been in your brother's heart, Your Grace. The Princess Elia was a good and gracious lady, though her health was ever delicate."

Dany pulled the lion pelt tighter about her shoulders. "Viserys said once that it was my fault, for being born too late." She had denied it hotly, she remembered, going so far as to tell Viserys that it was his fault for not being born a girl. He beat her cruelly for that insolence. "If I had been born more timely, he said, Rhaegar would have married me instead of Elia, and it would all have come out different. If Rhaegar had been happy in his wife, he would not have needed the Stark girl."

"Perhaps so, Your Grace." Whitebeard paused a moment. "But I am not certain it was in Rhaegar to be happy."

You make him sound so sour," Dany protested.

"Not sour, no, but . . . there was a melancholy to Prince Rhaegar, a sense . . ." The old man hesitated again.

"Say it," she urged. "A sense . . . ?"

"...of doom. He was born in grief, my queen, and that shadow hung over him all his days."

[SFDanny]

Note:

Quote

The False Spring of 281 lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. (TWoI&F 127)

It would seem the tourney at Harrenhal takes place in this "less than two turns" time period and it likely takes place in the last three months of the year 281 AC. Just how long between the return of winter and the end of the New Year is not clearly stated but the fact it returns with a "vengeance" suggests strongly there is not a prolonged period of time between the two events. No mini autumn between False Spring and the dead of winter. Aegon is born in the time period between the end of the tourney and the first of the new year 282 AC

As to the Battle of the Bells, we know the double marriage of Ned and Catelyn / Jon Arryn and Lysa takes place after the battle at Stony Sept. We know it takes place in 283 because the timing of Robb's name day and because Catelyn tells us he was conceived on her wedding night all put those two events in 283. Which makes the Battle of the Bells itself right on the border of late 282 to 283. I think the Connington quote likely makes that 283. I haven't looked it up in the wiki, but there should be a calculation that goes along with the date.

[Lady Rhodes]

@SFDanny thank you for the Battle of the Bells clarification!

RE: Tourney...I hear what you are saying regarding the Blackwater Rush freezing, but I am inclined to think there is an autumn.  If it turns out I am wrong, I will throw down my moniker and stop theorizing haha because I just cannot fathom Elia traveling while that pregnant. 

[SFDanny]

3 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

@SFDanny thank you for the Battle of the Bells clarification!

RE: Tourney...I hear what you are saying regarding the Blackwater Rush freezing, but I am inclined to think there is an autumn.  If it turns out I am wrong, I will throw down my moniker and stop theorizing haha because I just cannot fathom Elia traveling while that pregnant. 

Please don't stop theorizing! If you're interested in this stuff - and it certainly looks like you  are, I encourage you to join with @Rhaenys_Targaryen and the efforts to put together a timeline. She has information in her signature about the effort. I'm certainly willing to share my own thinking on the subject, but I don't claim to have anything like all the answers.