The Fellowship of the Prince that was Promised

[Lady Rhodes]

33 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Please don't stop theorizing! If you're interested in this stuff - and it certainly looks like you  are, I encourage you to join with @Rhaenys_Targaryen and the efforts to put together a timeline. She has information in her signature about the effort. I'm certainly willing to share my own thinking on the subject, but I don't claim to have anything like all the answers.

Thank you! Perhaps I need to get into it further. 

[corbon]

41 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Still, I cannot imagine how Elia telling Rhaegar that she named their son Aegon and him immediately saying "we need one more" wouldn't count as urgent, though? (Again, we are taking that vision at face value.)

How does it count as 'urgent' at all? Its a statement of fact, not a statement of timing. 

Driven, yes. Urgent, can't see it at all - we are opposites here.

41 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

 

Ok, I see what you mean now. To be fair, I don't know. I don't know if we have that kind of textual proof, and if that shoots my theory in the water, so be it.

I don't think its shoots it in the water. Just needs some adjustments, some different thoughts as to motivations and timings etc.

41 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

But, everything that we have learned about Rhaegar: Barristan's testimony, Ned's inner monologue, Jaime's thoughts, Aemon's testimony...None of this adds up to someone who rapes and murders, wantonly cheats on his wife, or travels for the sake of traveling the riverlands. 

I absolutely agree.

41 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

He is driven by purpose, and so, I don't think he does anything without the purpose in mind.

Well, I think he has multiple purposes. Yes, the prophecy stuff is the most important, but he's still Crown Prince and still has other duties and purposes. And responsibilities.
And Aerys is clearly getting worse after Duskendale.

41 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This sort of drive can lead to incredibly flawed thinking, of course.  So, the best answer I have is that he had to have a reason for pursuing Lyanna Stark - for naming her queen of love and beauty and for "kidnapping" her.

Agreed. But are they all the same reason? Must they be?
I think KotLT is reason enough for the QoLaB. The "kidnapping"? Well that happens later after a number of significant events - including the birth of Aegon and Elia's elimination as the mother of all three dragons. So there's that. Plus the political angles that some think are important. Plus the "Aerys found out who the KotLT was" angle that some propose. I think there are plenty of options we have for the 'why', and how each person judges their relative values for a 'best guess' varies widely. 

41 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am just branching that purpose out into other mysteries that we know of (Who is the father of Ashara's baby? Is she alive? etc) and seeing if there is a way to tie them together.  I think this theory has the potential to do that.

It does. 
Is that sufficient reason for it to exist?
Can not there be separate storylines that interact rather than one overarching plot?

41 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Yes, clues on people who are "dead". Who do you think is alive? Any suggestions on who may be the other 3 in this fellowship?

 

34 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Eh, I think you are stretching.  

You are correct it doesn't say much, but what it does say is that her home, the one that she associates with the Red Door and Lemontrees, does not jive with known Braavosi climate.

No. It says one tree does not jive, but thats no big deal for a wealth. 

34 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

And picking up on that means-something.  Vague, yes. Dornish connection? Certainly. But you can't have symbolism for the sake of symbolism - Lemons at her home in Braavos symbolizes her host having Dornish connections. 

Yep. And as we find out later, during that time in Bravos a pact was signed between Dorne and her faction (represented by Willem Darry who must have arranged where they lived) and witnessed by the First Sealord of Bravos (another connection to extreme wealth in Bravos).

34 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This story is still grounded in principles of reality and the reality of the climate dictates that this cannot be accurate. 

No, this is simply a false statement. One tree not fitting entirely with a natural climate is not impossible. In fact its not at all unlikely given the wealth involved already, and demonstrated (later) connections between that time and Dorne.

34 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am open for moving that date - it makes things very difficult. I could see it shifted.

I don;t know that it needs to be moved, just wondering where it came from.

34 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

It was actually a conversation that Rhaenys Targaryen was involved in years ago that I found my old outline. You and I seem to have roughly the same thoughts, though, in regards to the timeline and that should suffice, I think, for our discussion.

Sure.

23 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

These are the qualities that we have for Rhaegar from a reputable source. This seems in line with someone who would not have taken Lyanna without reason, left his wife on Dragonstone after she nearly died giving birth without reason,

I agree to here.

23 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

or sent the realm into turmoil (which he doubtlessly knew would happen when Lyanna disappeared) without reason.

I don't agree here. At least, I don;t agree that he knew that the realm would be sent into turmoil when he 'abducted' her. Or at least, I don't agree that said 'turmoil' had to be unmanageable.  
Obviously there was some need for her to go with him. We don't know what it was, or how great it was, or whether it was a 'good' need or a 'bad' need (though all we have points towards good). So lets take that as a given.
Then its a case of balancing need and results and what to do to manipulate or guide or control results.

What do we think about how the important other 'players' are likely to see a Lyanna 'abduction' as?

1. Starks. Rickard is likely to be angry and want her return immediately. Apart from the personal 'daughter' aspect he is shamed by his betrothal to Robert being broken. He may have political plans and ambitions that are disrupted.
I think the personal side can be easily handled with some communications. We have no evidence that there were none to Rickard and we know something set Brandon off. It is noticeable that Rickard never seems to mention Lyanna or Rhaegar in the aftermath, only Brandon's behaviour. Maybe he did, and we'll get more info, but so far there's no indication he did. Nor actually from anyone else. There is only Brandon and his foolish calling out of Rhaegar, and the 'fallout' from that. Its actually Aerys who later 'expands' out to Robert Baratheon, the first indication from either side that Lyanna is relevant (other than Brandon's wild call out for Rhaegar). That strikes me as very curious.
2. Baratheons. Robert will be angry of course. But Robert's a cousin and a genial bloke. He'll get over his temper and can be 'bought off' with some other prize.
Robert showed no sign of public affection to Lyanna, or particular distress, at Harrenhal (unhappy, but calm), so its unlikely many outside of the Starks and Jon Arryn know how truly personal this is to Robert (and indeed, I don't think it really was so much at the time, as it became later when Robert pours all his 'I hate my life now' feelings into 'Lyanna was the one, poor me' feelings). 
3. Aerys. Aerys is likely to not like it at all - in a way its Rhaegar choosing his own woman independently over the one Aerys chose for him, so a paranoid like Aerys is going to take it personally. 

So as far as I can see, both sides are going to be against it. And its actually an issue, perhaps the only issue, where the two sides (Aerys and an opposing faction of High Lords) can come together on.

So, so long as things don't go too far, I can see where this 'abduction', can actually be a positive.

Of course, obviously Rhaegar doesn't want to actually give Lyanna back. 
And he doesn't want things to devolve too far.

 

 

14 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Note:

It would seem the tourney at Harrenhal takes place in this "less than two turns" time period

Why? Please check my posts#33 (where I start making points about this) and #36 (when I answer the textual quotes).

Not saying/arguing it didn't, just questioning why this particular timing is accepted if it clashes with other things (such as Elia's timeline/health/pregnancies/travel), and if this acceptance hasn't been a little casual?

14 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

and it likely takes place in the last three months of the year 281 AC.

the False Spring, probably, yes.

14 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Just how long between the return of winter and the end of the New Year is not clearly stated but the fact it returns with a "vengeance" suggests strongly there is not a prolonged period of time between the two events.

"With a vengeance" speaks of strength, power, brutality not haste, speed.
When winter returned it returned hard, but nothing says it turned brutal immediately.

Having said that, the mere fact that its gone from spring->not spring shows a turn. I'm just not sure there wasn't a second or deeper turn a few months later. That would still fit with 'winter returning with a vengeance'. 
Lets say as an example, May tourney, as per LD. Then July the false spring ends as it clearly gets colder again. Then in November/December it gets nasty-cold, much worse than usual. As the year turned Winter returned with a vengeance. Still fits. Two different sentences.

Quote

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance.

Really though, this is much less important than defining the tourney as being during the False Spring 2-month period rather than the warmer longer-day-ed end-of-winter-is-nigh period.

14 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

As to the Battle of the Bells, we know the double marriage of Ned and Catelyn / Jon Arryn and Lysa takes place after the battle at Stony Sept. We know it takes place in 283 because the timing of Robb's name day and because Catelyn tells us he was conceived on her wedding night all put those two events in 283. Which makes the Battle of the Bells itself right on the border of late 282 to 283. I think the Connington quote likely makes that 283. I haven't looked it up in the wiki, but there should be a calculation that goes along with the date.

Ok. Its effectively tied by Robb's name day to very late 282 or early 283. Thanks. Thats the sort of detail I knew you had, I don't need the explanation of Robb's name day timing to trust that.

[frenin]

2 hours ago, corbon said:

1. Starks. Rickard is likely to be angry and want her return immediately. Apart from the personal 'daughter' aspect he is shamed by his betrothal to Robert being broken. He may have political plans and ambitions that are disrupted.
I think the personal side can be easily handled with some communications. We have no evidence that there were none to Rickard and we know something set Brandon off. It is noticeable that Rickard never seems to mention Lyanna or Rhaegar in the aftermath, only Brandon's behaviour. Maybe he did, and we'll get more info, but so far there's no indication he did. Nor actually from anyone else. There is only Brandon and his foolish calling out of Rhaegar, and the 'fallout' from that. Its actually Aerys who later 'expands' out to Robert Baratheon, the first indication from either side that Lyanna is relevant (other than Brandon's wild call out for Rhaegar). That strikes me as very curious.

Jaime's tale about the Stark's murder starts in a in media res, with Rickard already being prepared for a combat and Jaime's tale is the only one we have about how they died. And since Aerys said that if Rickard was innocent he would not burn it seems that the trial by combat was for him or at least just as much as he was for Brandon. And Rickard certainly does not mention Brandon in KL. Amd when it's Brandon's turn he goes on to his father. If we are to believe Yandel. the Starks indeed demanded "redress for Rhaegar's wrongs" which includes Lyanna.

They would want Lyanna back however and it's impossible they are ok with Lyanna being a side piece, which is why they were mad at Harrenhall.

 

2 hours ago, corbon said:

2. Baratheons. Robert will be angry of course. But Robert's a cousin and a genial bloke. He'll get over his temper and can be 'bought off' with some other prize.

Did he assume that now?? The two cousins certainly don't strike me as close, not as their fathers were and they never spent much time together. Is odd for him to gamble on that, having the Laughing Storm's precedent. 

 

 

2 hours ago, corbon said:

Robert showed no sign of public affection to Lyanna, or particular distress, at Harrenhal (unhappy, but calm), so its unlikely many outside of the Starks and Jon Arryn know how truly personal this is to Robert (and indeed, I don't think it really was so much at the time, as it became later when Robert pours all his 'I hate my life now' feelings into 'Lyanna was the one, poor me' feelings). 

Since we're told that it was Robert who came up with the wild idea of marriage and his hatred towards Rhaegar it seems otherwise, besides the Harrenhall story is as bad as Jaime, did Lyanna and Robert ignore each other while they were at Harrenhall, did Lyanna find Robert's behavour unecceptable, was she upset when he drank down the knight of skulls and kisses, did they talk at the feast before Rhaegar's sang, did they dance... Robert is am absolutely side character in the tale Meera is telling.

Besides, one thing is crowning Lyanna as QolaB and another very very different thing is abducting her. If he made his plans on that basis, no wonder why everything went down.

 

 

2 hours ago, corbon said:

3. Aerys. Aerys is likely to not like it at all - in a way its Rhaegar choosing his own woman independently over the one Aerys chose for him, so a paranoid like Aerys is going to take it personally. 

I personally think that Aerys was completely ok with this, he clearly distrusted the Starks, he clearly disliked the Martells and he clearly distrusted Rhaegar and Lyanna was nothing to him. Rhaegar's actions are more than a good excuse for disownment and if Rhaegar planned to marry Lyanna, he was going nowhere without the backing of the crown. So had there been not robellion, Aerys could've disowned Rhaegar without many people making a fuzz about it and named Viserys his heir. The time never come and it seems that the Robellion brought them closer actually.

 

 

2 hours ago, corbon said:

So, so long as things don't go too far, I can see where this 'abduction', can actually be a positive.

To whom?? I think it requires a not very healthy dose of optimism when you do something that worths a rebellion and expect that the very powerful, prideful, fickle and very volatile people to react logically, it's akin to handing over a machine gun to a kid and hope or the best.

 

 

2 hours ago, corbon said:

Agreed. But are they all the same reason? Must they be?
I think KotLT is reason enough for the QoLaB. The "kidnapping"? Well that happens later after a number of significant events - including the birth of Aegon and Elia's elimination as the mother of all three dragons. So there's that. Plus the political angles that some think are important. Plus the "Aerys found out who the KotLT was" angle that some propose. I think there are plenty of options we have for the 'why', and how each person judges their relative values for a 'best guess' varies widely.

 

4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

These are the qualities that we have for Rhaegar from a reputable source. This seems in line with someone who would not have taken Lyanna without reason, left his wife on Dragonstone after she nearly died giving birth without reason, or sent the realm into turmoil (which he doubtlessly knew would happen when Lyanna disappeared) without reason.

Don't about that, Barristan is clearly leaving more things on the jar and Martin calls him a lovestruck prince and people do all kind of idiocies with very foreseeable consequences when they are in love. You only have to check on Rhaegar's own grandaparents or their siblings.

 

 

Why would Lyanna and Ashara be willing to that anyways?? Why not look for some minor noble/commoner?? Even in the best case  scenario one stands to lose it all??

 

[St Daga]

23 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I don't think we will ever hear GRRM call this band of comrades that I am proposing as a "fellowship"; nonetheless, I think that is essentially what it is.  Your mention of the black is interesting - like take the black? Maybe Aemon Targaryen? On another tangent, could he be the character that GRRM regrets killing? 

Well, Aemon and Rhaegar did have a relationship of some sort, so it might make sense. I just came across the idea that Aemon might be able to be raised from the dead, perhaps why he is pickled in barrel of fire rum and not buried at sea. That could be whom GRRM was hinting at, but it could be several other characters also.

 

23 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I would be interested into hearing your reasoning for this, because it seems like this is one topic that @corbon and I agree on.  I cannot see how see how it would be possible given her medical history.

I see timeline possibilities were discussed a little further down, but I think the Harrenhal Tourney was in the last couple months of the year. The False Spring lasted for two months, and it was spring at Harrehal, which is why everyone acted like yahoo's (I think of it like a lot of wine and freedom and unrestrained teenagers at a party), I think. The sudden turn to winter happened pretty abruptly after the tourney, I think and it sounds like Winter had returned by the start of the new year in 282. And Prince Aegon had to have been born just before all of this, also.

 

23 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

The bolded section is exactly why I propose the recruitment event.  They have no way of knowing how a second pregnancy would turn out, but after the fraught nature (six month recovery is certainly fraught), they had reason to believe it would be difficult. However, you are forgetting a key point after the birth of Aegon, which is why I dispute the section of your reply that I italicized.  Maester's now explicitly told Rhaegar and Elia that another pregnancy would kill her.  Rhaegar was certainly flawed in his thinking (as I mentioned in an earlier reply, marrying three people isn't necessarily ideal), but I don't think he meant any ill will to Elia, which can be demonstrated in his conversation with Jaime.  He wasn't about to kill her for a prophecy (which is incredibly ironic, given the turn of events, but also is in keeping with GRRM's style and themes. Road to hell and best intentions, etc.)

Your premise is that Elia had not had delivered her second child at the time of Harrenhal, so there is no way she could have been told that a third pregnancy would kill her-that would have to come after Aegon's birth. Yet your theory is set before Aegon's birth and the information on how a third pregnancy could risk Elia. Perhaps Rhaegar wasn't willing to risk Elia's life, but she herself has agency and might be willing to risk her life for whatever goal she and Rhaegar saw in their children. If she is as strongly connected to this idea as you propose. And there is always a chance that a third pregnancy would not end in her death (although I think it did), so they might try to risk it.

 

23 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This is an excellent question. As I suggested earlier, I am thinking that his aim was expediency and urgency.  Whatever he read that made him obsessed with the prophecy must have made him realize the threat was urgent. Given the fact that the Others have returned, this was not wrong.  But in this time period, how many people, children included, die from colds, falling from a horse, etc.? Let alone miscarriages, stillbirths, etc.  He has to have three survive in order to save the world (Rhaegar's view), so he has contingency plans.  Who will he decide? I am not sure it matters. Perhaps it does, though. Maybe it has to be a girl and that is the reason - he has to ensure he has a daughter to fulfill the three heads of the dragon and get his "Visenya".  That is another reason for multiple chances.  Again - I am not saying that his reasoning isn't incredibly flawed. But I think my theory can dovetail into the frame of mind Rhaegar may have been in. 

This idea of Rhaegar just deciding to sire two or three children on two or three women at the same time makes him sound just like Aegon IV, and there is nothing in Rheagar's character to hint to  us to compare the two men. What is the hint that makes us think that Rhaegar would just father several bastards at all? We don't even have hints of him having one mistress or stray lover besides the concept around Lyanna's rape.

 

23 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This is the strongest point against my theory, I will grant you.  Lyanna loathed Robert for his whoring, drunken ways.  My thoughts are that she and Ashara were persuaded by a higher calling - to save the realm from a great threat.  With Lyanna being raised in the North, she would obviously be concerned about the northern people, and the Starks seemed to hold the Watch in high esteem. The Dayne's are also a First Man family, and, I would argue, that Dawn is most likely Lightbringer. Both of these women may have been raised on stories of the great threat and could have been persuaded to be apart of something bigger, to save the realm.

We have no reason to think Lyanna would want to pursue a higher calling, although I agree she is concerned about protecting her people, such as Howland at Harrenhal. But that doesn't necessarily translate to mythic pregnancy. We are told that Arya and Lyanna are alike, so I suppose that would apply to them, no matter their ages. I can't seem Arya hoodwinked into being a prophecy womb, even to save the world, Arya would rather grab a sword and battle in that way, and I suspect that Lyanna was like that.

Also, we don't know that Lyanna loathed Robert, only that she was aware of his bastards and that she felt like marriage would not change him. That doesn't even mean she was unwilling to marry him, just that she was aware of his character.

 

13 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

RE: Tourney...I hear what you are saying regarding the Blackwater Rush freezing, but I am inclined to think there is an autumn.  If it turns out I am wrong, I will throw down my moniker and stop theorizing haha because I just cannot fathom Elia traveling while that pregnant. 

Well, goodness, don't stop theorizing because you might not be right. We all will end up more wrong than right, it's still great to explore ideas from the text. 

That said, I do think that winter returned abruptly, and very soon after the Tourney at Harrenhal. This idea could perhaps hint that people felt like something important happened  (went wrong, perhaps) at Harrenhal that caused winter to kick the crap out of a fresh spring. Perhaps angering the Stark's brought on a the winter weather. Brandon was damn well upset with Rhaegar, and even Ned is said to be unhappy with Rhaegar's gesture to Lyanna, and we don't have any idea how Lyanna reacted to all of this. She might have been the most angry of them all.

Pregnant women travel, and while I don't think it might have been wise on Elia's part late in her pregnancy, that doesn't mean she didn't do it anyway. It's not like she wasn't probably traveling in luxury and surrounded by people concerned about her health. It's also possible that her travel caused her to deliver early. We have no idea of Aegon was a full-term newborn or not.  Look at the Dothraki women, for instance. They travel pretty much their entire pregnancies, even give birth in carts on the road. Women are capable of a lot, and GRRM does address different possibilities in the text.

[St Daga]

16 hours ago, corbon said:

I still think the whole 'shock' thing is overblown. The Starks were mad, yes and Robert, clearly not happy, though he laughed it off, but 'all the smiles died' is just as likely a 'local' reaction from Ned's perception, and/or a 'surprise' thing.

Yandel's account is a little different. While he documents the Stark/Robert reactions that fit with Ned's recall, he says that a faction of the court immediately started telling Aerys that this was a political move blah blah blah. I other words (IMO), different people reacted different once past the initial surprise and many thought to turn it to their advantage as much as be 'saddened' in some way by it.

I think its pretty telling that there is no record of any displeasure from Elia, and no record of any further discord between Elia and Rhaegar in the aftermath if anything, the opposite). If Elia and Rhaegar present a united front after the initial surprise, then I think most people would think much less badly of it and speculate in other ways.

Brandon was pissed, that is clear. He was so angry that he had to be restrained from confronting Rheagar. This might hint at strong words, but I am inclined to suspect a physical reaction, hence the physical response in stopping Brandon. Ned was no less pleased, very politically correct words from Yandel. Vague in detail, but certainly Ned Stark wasn't happy. Robert might have tried to laugh it off, but its' reported that he brooded and his heart hardened against Rhaegar. Those are strong emotions.

As you say, there is no hint to how Elia reacted to this, but there is also no hint to how Lyanna acted either. She might have been more pissed off than either of her brothers for all we know. She might have clutched the rose crown to her heart and never wanted to let it go, but I find that a bit too much. She might have just thought it was stupid and chucked the flowers in the dirt. She might have been honored or flattered or as angry as a winter storm. We don't know. 

 

16 hours ago, corbon said:

Its not impossible, but its also not Robert's style. Robert wants fun fucks and apparent willingness, not domination fucks and power.

Well, I don't think he dragged her behind a tent and raped her brutally, but we have hints of Robert perhaps not recognizing that he has gone to far when he is drinking. I am remined of stories of date rape, where woman might not fight back physically, but do give in to the advance, for fear or impairment of some sort, but that doesn't make them willing. He also might have just seduced her, after all Robert in his prime was a fine specimen and there is no reason to think that girls, even highborn ones, weren't willing to spend some quality time with him, maybe expressing the willingness he was seeking.

 

16 hours ago, corbon said:

Would you when you were 7? or 6? or 12? OIf you'd heard an adult speaking it (servants gossip perhaps)?

If so, you'd be a pretty unusual child, even more so in that society.

I actually was an unusual child. I would rather sit and talk with adults than people my age, and I have always asked questions to the point were people wanted to muzzle me. I would at least speak to a trusted adult about what I heard, and they could clarify truth or not. Or course, I wasn't raised in ASOIAF society, but even Arya demonstrates trying to clarify Edric's story with an adult (Harwin) who might be able to help clarify truth or not. 

But from our perspective as an audience, I think this method of transferring information from child to child makes it less reliable. Or it's like a game of Telephone, where every time a word or phrase is passed onto the next person, it's altered, sometimes to the point of unrecognizability. Every time a story is told, it might alter some of the truth form the original events.

 

16 hours ago, corbon said:

Right.
Thing is, we've been given a bunch of hints as too Jon's mother. Most of them have to be wrong, because only one can be right. What GRRM has done very well is make his red herrings very realistic in that they follow reasonable, logical thought paths for people with no actual experience relating to the truth (the three public facts that lead to N+A=J speculation) and have subtle differences from different directions.
Catleyn thinks Ned loved Jon's mother very much and Ashara might be the mother.
Cersei suggest lust and betrayal, throwing Ashara in as one of several options - dornish peasant he raped, whore, grieving sister with stolen child.
Allyria/Edric suggest N+A in love but Wylla as Jon's mother (Ashara as mother doesn't look good for their House, so they have Wylla who is an extra option most don't know about or have likely met and dismissed as mother).

Can only one be correct?  Some of those hints might each end up being parts of the truth, combined in some way with another hint. For instance, Cat is probably correct in thinking that Ned loved Jon's mother very much, she might be incorrect on the Ashara part. This makes sense if Lyanna is the mother, since it makes sense that Ned would love his sister. He even tells us he does in his first POV. Wylla is another name that comes up a couple times, both from Edric's story but also from Ned's own mouth.  Edric's story is a bit weird anyway, speaking of Wylla as Jon's mother, but at the same time he talks about he Ned and Ashara were in love. Okay, so Ned loves Ashara but has a baby with Wylla? Doesn't seem like Ned. Now, it's possible that Wylla is a nickname for a different character in our story. We have examples of both Arya and Sansa going by different names at different times in the story, and this could be the case for Lyanna as well. Even Cersei's words probably have a slight twist of the truth to them, it's just deciding what part. She mentions a whore and Ned is certainly triggered by Catelyn in a brothel. That is probably a clue. A burning holdfast could also be a clue. So, perhaps it's not a matter of eliminating all by one clue, but finding what fits together within all the clues, to help solve the puzzle. Perhaps all the Ashara hints just need a different woman's name in replacement to make those hints correct.  Or perhaps Ashara is the right name, although I doubt that. I am inclined to see Jon's mother as Lyanna, whom Ned loved, but who has gone by a different name, and might be tied to a brothel or holdfast, possibly burning. There are plenty of options within the clues, and GRRM is certainly crafty.

[SFDanny]

13 hours ago, corbon said:

Why? Please check my posts#33 (where I start making points about this) and #36 (when I answer the textual quotes).

Ok, I now see this as a great lesson in the importance of reading the whole thread before one responds to a question. Which is a way of saying I'm sorry for not reading all the good points you and @Lady Rhodes had made up to this point. After reading some of the discussion, let me say it looks to me that the best evidence we have to think the Harrenhal tourney occurs in the "less than two turns of the moon" timeframe is Meera's opening part of her tale that speaks to it being a "spring day." It fits with the participants at the tourney thinking that spring had finally arrived - aka being in the midst of the less than two turns window.

The two name days we have that are really relevant to the discussion, meaning Ned's and Jaime's, don't tell us much. They both have had their name days in the year by the time the tourney takes place. That only eliminates a very, very early range of months from when the tourney could have taken place. But then I think we already knew that was highly unlikely.

Let me read the rest of the very interesting thread, and then let me see if I can be more helpful to the discussion after I do that.

[Lady Rhodes]

12 hours ago, corbon said:

How does it count as 'urgent' at all? Its a statement of fact, not a statement of timing. 

Driven, yes. Urgent, can't see it at all - we are opposites here.

Perhaps this is where we are disagreeing.  To me, someone who is driven is willing to wait. Someone who views something as urgent is willing to make compromises, or choose "the lesser of two evils".

12 hours ago, corbon said:

I don't think its shoots it in the water. Just needs some adjustments, some different thoughts as to motivations and timings etc.

Do you have any thoughts regarding motivations or timings that may dovetail into this theory?

12 hours ago, corbon said:

I absolutely agree.

Excellent! Agreeing on Rhaegar's temperament in general is key.

12 hours ago, corbon said:

Well, I think he has multiple purposes. Yes, the prophecy stuff is the most important, but he's still Crown Prince and still has other duties and purposes. And responsibilities.
And Aerys is clearly getting worse after Duskendale.

You aren't wrong. I think the tourney of Harrenhal served multiple purposes - one of which is an informal Great Council.

12 hours ago, corbon said:

. But are they all the same reason? Must they be?

Fair point. I suspect that Rhaegar may have persued Lyanna for the fellowship after seeing her in action regarding Knight of the Laughing Tree.  Perhaps the Queen of Love and Beauty was an overture toward her accepting the role?

12 hours ago, corbon said:

It does. 
Is that sufficient reason for it to exist?
Can not there be separate storylines that interact rather than one overarching plot?

Certainly there can be separate storylines. That being said, we are nearing the end and at a certain point, these storylines must intersect.

12 hours ago, corbon said:

And as we find out later, during that time in Bravos a pact was signed between Dorne and her faction (represented by Willem Darry who must have arranged where they lived) and witnessed by the First Sealord of Bravos (another connection to extreme wealth in Bravos).

 

12 hours ago, corbon said:

No. It says one tree does not jive, but thats no big deal for a wealth. 

Please correct me if I am wrong - by your logic, the lemontree is a symbol of this hidden pact.  I don't think that is enough. The difference between well crafted writing and mediocre writing is literary devices and figurative language working on a variety of levels (it's the same reason we have a tendency to cringe when people sprinkle metaphors and similes like a salt shaker over their writing.)  It can be a symbol of this pact, but it cannot, or rather, it SHOULD NOT be enough for the lemon tree to exist only as a symbol yet contradict known facts - such as the climate of Braavos and that lemons do not traditionally grow there. (*Full Disclosure - I am a former English teacher, so this symbolism soapbox may purely be personal.)

13 hours ago, corbon said:

At least, I don;t agree that he knew that the realm would be sent into turmoil when he 'abducted' her. Or at least, I don't agree that said 'turmoil' had to be unmanageable.  

Valid point, let me rephrase: I think he thought the turmoil would be manageable. I 100% agree with your points about Rickard.  Perhaps he was in on this whole thing and he is one of the Fellowship as well. He seems to have headed to the capital because of what Aerys did to Brandon, not what Rhaegar did to Lyanna.  Brandon was his heir, so he didn't want him killed. Yet, he may not have included him in on plans being made because, well, Brandon is a known hot head.

Thank you, @corbon, for your back up re: an earlier Tourney in 281.

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Don't about that, Barristan is clearly leaving more things on the jar and Martin calls him a lovestruck prince and people do all kind of idiocies with very foreseeable consequences when they are in love. You only have to check on Rhaegar's own grandaparents or their siblings.

Why would Lyanna and Ashara be willing to that anyways?? Why not look for some minor noble/commoner?? Even in the best case  scenario one stands to lose it all??

RE: Barristan - he may know more than he has said but I still think his general thoughts on Rhaegar mirror what other people have said.  RE: lovestruck prince - when did Martin say this? I would be interested.

RE: Lyanna and Ashara - I believe they were called to be a part of something greater, part of which involved giving birth to children that could help prevent the Others from reaching and destroying the kingdom (to clarify a point that I made earlier and was rightfully called out on, I don't think they were called to be solely incubators/pregnant women.) Lyanna would have grown up on Northern stories and would have skin the in the game (worry for her people).  Plus, being part of a quest to save humanity and given a choice about whether to involve themselves in it sounds correct to her personality.  Likewise, the Dayne's are also descendents from the First Men, and it is likely that Dawn is Lightbringer, so it is possible that she, too, felt this same call.

[Frey family reunion]

Re: the Fellowship, I don't know if it has to be 9.  After all, when Rhaegar rode out he only had six companions with him.  We can sort of figure it out from the World Book: 

Quote

Prince Rhaegar's support came from the younger men at court, including Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooton of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth.  The Dornishmen who had come to court with Princess Elia were in the prince's confidence as well, particularly Prince Lewyn Martell, Elia's uncle and a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard.  But the most formidable of all Rhaegar's friends and allies in King's Landing was surely Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning.

So certainly Connington, Mooton, Lonmouth, Lewys Martell, and Arthur Dayne would comprise five of the companions.  A sixth could certainly be Oswell Whent.  Also if Oberyn had accompanied Elia to King's Landing he could fit in as well.  

[Lady Rhodes]

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

Your premise is that Elia had not had delivered her second child at the time of Harrenhal, so there is no way she could have been told that a third pregnancy would kill her-that would have to come after Aegon's birth

But we DO know that she was bedridden after Rhaenys, which is enough information to know that it would be dangerous.

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

Perhaps Rhaegar wasn't willing to risk Elia's life, but she herself has agency and might be willing to risk her life for whatever goal she and Rhaegar saw in their children. If she is as strongly connected to this idea as you propose. And there is always a chance that a third pregnancy would not end in her death (although I think it did), so they might try to risk it.

I addressed this elsewhere, but while I think they were committed to the prophecy, I don't think they were trying to get anyone killed (a sad irony).

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

This idea of Rhaegar just deciding to sire two or three children on two or three women at the same time makes him sound just like Aegon IV, and there is nothing in Rheagar's character to hint to  us to compare the two men. What is the hint that makes us think that Rhaegar would just father several bastards at all? We don't even have hints of him having one mistress or stray lover besides the concept around Lyanna's rape.

He is not doing this wantonly (like Aegon IV) and I am not ruling out polygamy. So, these children are not necessarily bastards. This is an honest belief that he is trying to save humanity (again, totally different than Aegon IV)

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

We have no reason to think Lyanna would want to pursue a higher calling, although I agree she is concerned about protecting her people, such as Howland at Harrenhal. But that doesn't necessarily translate to mythic pregnancy.

To clarify, I am not saying that pregnancy is the end of her involvement with this whole thing, but a part of it.

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

Well, goodness, don't stop theorizing because you might not be right. We all will end up more wrong than right, it's still great to explore ideas from the text.  - Sometimes kicking around ideas helps flesh them out better and show flaws in one's own thinking.  I appreciate the pushback because, while I try to push as well, it is good to see where my initial thinking was flawed.

That said, I do think that winter returned abruptly, and very soon after the Tourney at Harrenhal. This idea could perhaps hint that people felt like something important happened  (went wrong, perhaps) at Harrenhal that caused winter to kick the crap out of a fresh spring. Perhaps angering the Stark's brought on a the winter weather. Brandon was damn well upset with Rhaegar, and even Ned is said to be unhappy with Rhaegar's gesture to Lyanna, and we don't have any idea how Lyanna reacted to all of this. She might have been the most angry of them all. - re: the bolded portion - I think this would be very telling.

Pregnant women travel, and while I don't think it might have been wise on Elia's part late in her pregnancy, that doesn't mean she didn't do it anyway. It's not like she wasn't probably traveling in luxury and surrounded by people concerned about her health. It's also possible that her travel caused her to deliver early. We have no idea of Aegon was a full-term newborn or not.  Look at the Dothraki women, for instance. They travel pretty much their entire pregnancies, even give birth in carts on the road. Women are capable of a lot, and GRRM does address different possibilities in the text. - you are completely right. My thoughts are (and I may be beating a dead horse here) given her previous medical history , a master would not have allowed it since she could potentially carrying the next king of Westeros.

 

[Lady Rhodes]

19 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Let me read the rest of the very interesting thread, and then let me see if I can be more helpful to the discussion after I do that.

Thank you for that compliment! Happy to discuss with you

7 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Re: the Fellowship, I don't know if it has to be 9.  After all, when Rhaegar rode out he only had six companions with him.  We can sort of figure it out from the World Book: 

So certainly Connington, Mooton, Lonmouth, Lewys Martell, and Arthur Dayne would comprise five of the companions.  A sixth could certainly be Oswell Whent.  Also if Oberyn had accompanied Elia to King's Landing he could fit in as well.  

I don't think his companions were the whole member of the fellowship - Elia being on Dragonstone and Lyanna not yet with him would account for another two, for instance. 

As far as your companion list, while those are certainly people that were in Rhaegar's circle and could be candidates, I am less certain.  For example, Moonton was his squire that he [Rhaegar] then knighted.  That doesn't necessarily mean he included Moonton on his war council, or in this case, his Fellowship.  Like Robb with Olyvar Frey, he was his squire, but I doubt he discussed strategy with him.

That being said, here is what I have so far for the Fellowship:

1. Rhaegar
2. Elia
3. Arthur Dayne
4. Ashara Dayne
5. Oswell Whent
6. Lyanna Stark

7,8,& 9 I am unsure of.  Some suggestions we have had:
Lewyn Martell, Queen Rhaella, Willem Darry, Jon Con, Maester Aemon, Maester Marwyn...and any of those that you listed.

[kissdbyfire]

@Lady Rhodes, you can find the whole thing here.

At last I was able to ask him the question I had sent for the tombola. I have always been fascinated by how ASOIAF embodies the theories put forward by Acemoglu and Robinson about countries with extractive institutions (which hamper development). So my question was: Why do you think the political institutions in the Seven Kingdoms are so weak? His answer: the Kingdom was unified with dragons, so the Targaryen's flaw was to create an absolute monarchy highly dependent on them, with the small council not designed to be a real check and balance. So, without dragons it took a sneeze, a wildly incompetent and megalomaniac king, a love struck prince, a brutal civil war, a dissolute king that didn't really know what to do with the throne and then chaos. Interesting answer.

[Frey family reunion]

10 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

a love struck prince

Ah, but what was the prince in love with?

Quote

"Yes.  And yet Summerhall was the place the prince loved best."

 

[Lady Rhodes]

20 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

a love struck prince

Very interesting. I will have to ponder this!

[kissdbyfire]

42 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Ah, but what was the prince in love with?

 

Do you think Martin used “love struck” to describe Rhaegar’s feelings for Summerhall? If so, I disagree.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Ah, but what was the prince in love with?

 

That vision at the HotU that Dany has of the dying prince, Rhaegar with his dying breath whispered not the name of a woman, but that of a castle "Summerhall."

Then he bit the dust.

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

 

That vision at the HotU that Dany has of the dying prince, Rhaegar with his dying breath whispered not the name of a woman, but that of a castle "Summerhall."

Then he bit the dust.

Rosebud...

I agree, I think “love struck” would be a very odd choice to describe one’s feelings for a castle/place.

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Do you think Martin used “love struck” to describe Rhaegar’s feelings for Summerhall? If so, I disagree.

Well he actually wrote songs in memory of Summerhall, not sure he ever wrote a song for Lyanna.  But I think it has more to do with what Summerhall represented.  A dream of dragons.

[corbon]

6 hours ago, St Daga said:

As you say, there is no hint to how Elia reacted to this, but there is also no hint to how Lyanna acted either. She might have been more pissed off than either of her brothers for all we know. She might have clutched the rose crown to her heart and never wanted to let it go, but I find that a bit too much. She might have just thought it was stupid and chucked the flowers in the dirt. She might have been honored or flattered or as angry as a winter storm. We don't know. 

Agreed - more or less... ok, mostly a little less, I confess.
There are the dead, black rose petals falling from her palm as she died. And then the clearly symbolic storm of blue rose petals. Then Cersei's story of Robert whispering Lyanna's name on their first night togther making Ned think of pale blue roses and weep. Then Lyanna's statue wearing a garland of pale blue roses in his dream, and last f all we find in his memory the QoLaB crown Rhaegar gave her was made of blue winter roses, pale as frost. 

Not proof of anything, of course, but highly suggestive. 
I do agree that in general, we don't know what her immediate action was. But I think we have more than sufficient clues to say with a degree of confidence, if agree-dly not certainty, that she loved the crown and the act, whatever her reaction at the time or in public was.

Quote

Well, I don't think he dragged her behind a tent and raped her brutally, but we have hints of Robert perhaps not recognizing that he has gone to far when he is drinking.

What, with Cersei?
I don/t think thats fair. While we might accept 'going to far', remember in the cultural paradigm he's just a husband seeking his rights - and frankly, while I don't agree with non-consensual sex even within the marriage bed, both parties do have rights and responsibilities and Cersei was deliberately avoiding hers and abrogating his. This needs to be sorted out in other ways, but this is not the same thing as Robert forcing himself on an unwilling woman - he has a contract with Cersei which by definition includes her being willing to have sex, some time at least. 

Quote

I am remined of stories of date rape, where woman might not fight back physically, but do give in to the advance, for fear or impairment of some sort, but that doesn't make them willing.

He also might have just seduced her, after all Robert in his prime was a fine specimen and there is no reason to think that girls, even highborn ones, weren't willing to spend some quality time with him, maybe expressing the willingness he was seeking.

Robert is not a lover, a lothario, he's a fun-ster and fucking is part of his fun. But its not his goal. I don't think there is any evidence at all for Robert ever doing anything remotely like date rape. I look at his character and think if Robert was with a woman who was not clearly enjoying his attention (or pretending to - but the limited evidence shows that most of them don't seem to have to pretend), but just 'going along with him', he'd just find another woman. 

I don't see any evidence for your suppositions, except his wife, whom he tied to and whom he's supposed to get children on.

Quote

I actually was an unusual child. I would rather sit and talk with adults than people my age, and I have always asked questions to the point were people wanted to muzzle me. I would at least speak to a trusted adult about what I heard, and they could clarify truth or not. Or course, I wasn't raised in ASOIAF society, but even Arya demonstrates trying to clarify Edric's story with an adult (Harwin) who might be able to help clarify truth or not. 

Right, so its not normal. 
Arya checks with someone else because she has reason (both emotionally and experiencially) to disagree with what she's told (and she's right).
And note, she didn't ask Harwin, or try to get clarification, Harwin volunteered his thoughts when he saw her upset and confusion about it.

Quote

But from our perspective as an audience, I think this method of transferring information from child to child makes it less reliable. Or it's like a game of Telephone, where every time a word or phrase is passed onto the next person, it's altered, sometimes to the point of unrecognizability. Every time a story is told, it might alter some of the truth form the original events.

Indeed. Although, the same happens from adult to adult too.
Note also we aren't ever told Allyria is a child (and indeed its possible she is not). She is merely presented to us as Ashara's sister - thus one would assume an adult source (given Ashara would be around/almost 40 by now - late 30s it seems, thanks to an SSM putting her in her 30s) with a firsthand connection to the actual sources. We have to work out for ourselves that our initial assumptions about this presentation are likely untrue and its likely she is a child with no connection to the actual sources.

Quote

Can only one be correct? 

In terms of being Jon's mother yes.
They can and likely do each have elements of truth (in varying amounts) though - rumour doesn't come from emptiness.

Quote

Some of those hints might each end up being parts of the truth, combined in some way with another hint. For instance, Cat is probably correct in thinking that Ned loved Jon's mother very much, she might be incorrect on the Ashara part. This makes sense if Lyanna is the mother, since it makes sense that Ned would love his sister. He even tells us he does in his first POV. Wylla is another name that comes up a couple times, both from Edric's story but also from Ned's own mouth. 

Sure.

Quote

Edric's story is a bit weird anyway, speaking of Wylla as Jon's mother, but at the same time he talks about he Ned and Ashara were in love. Okay, so Ned loves Ashara but has a baby with Wylla? Doesn't seem like Ned.

Its clearly not. But Ned is just a distant name to Edric. He doesn't know how un-Ned this story is, doesn't have any reason to doubt it.

Quote

Now, it's possible that Wylla is a nickname for a different character in our story. We have examples of both Arya and Sansa going by different names at different times in the story, and this could be the case for Lyanna as well. Even Cersei's words probably have a slight twist of the truth to them, it's just deciding what part. She mentions a whore and Ned is certainly triggered by Catelyn in a brothel. That is probably a clue. A burning holdfast could also be a clue.

Sure, Cersi's words hold some truth. But she's just throwing scattergun theories. There doesn't need to a 'clue' in each. All of them come simply from the fact that Ned went south without a bastard and came back with a bastard. There has to be a mother, somewhere, somehow, and its clearly not an honourable situation or he wouldn't be so mysterious about it.

Quote

So, perhaps it's not a matter of eliminating all by one clue, but finding what fits together within all the clues, to help solve the puzzle. Perhaps all the Ashara hints just need a different woman's name in replacement to make those hints correct.  Or perhaps Ashara is the right name, although I doubt that. I am inclined to see Jon's mother as Lyanna, whom Ned loved, but who has gone by a different name, and might be tied to a brothel or holdfast, possibly burning. There are plenty of options within the clues, and GRRM is certainly crafty.

Its possible. Frankly I think brothels and holdfasts are utterly irrelevant to Jons Snow's mother story. Every word GRRM writes has a reason, sure, but one of the reasons is realism and veracity. If Cersei's going to scattergun accusations at him, most of them are going to be complete misses and she might get some partial hits. Thats what scattergunning is like.

5 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Perhaps this is where we are disagreeing.  To me, someone who is driven is willing to wait. Someone who views something as urgent is willing to make compromises, or choose "the lesser of two evils".

Well, you already described him as driven (IIRC, without checking back), so willing to wait them.
As far as it goes I think driven people can be willing to wait, or make compromises, or just be urgent, depending n the circumstances. None of them are mutually exclusive.

Quote

Do you have any thoughts regarding motivations or timings that may dovetail into this theory?

At the moment my head is in the details. I might get back to it. I'm not good at creating motivations though. My thinking is organic (for me), builds out of what I judge of character based on the text and the factual limitations. Usually my thoughts coalesce as the facts work themselves out without conscious 'thought' on it other than the assessment of facts and adaption (or revolution, if there are new facts or I've been shown to misunderstand some facts badly) of understanding. I need to go back through the theory and actively sit and think on it to give that a fair go. Hopefully I'll get the time.

Quote

Excellent! Agreeing on Rhaegar's temperament in general is key.

Heh, there are plenty of people who don't. Bu thats usually a case on not reading or accepting the text or being tied to theories that require otherwise.

Quote

Fair point. I suspect that Rhaegar may have persued Lyanna for the fellowship after seeing her in action regarding Knight of the Laughing Tree.  Perhaps the Queen of Love and Beauty was an overture toward her accepting the role?

Its possible. I tend to think the QoLaB was purely and simply an acknowledgement of the KotLT. I think at that stage Rhaegar didn't have any plans for not-Elia to mother his 3 heads. I think Lyanna came into the picture after Aegon was born and Elia was removed from the picture. 
Plus there's the political angle, which I don;t rule out but don;t trust any of the theories to ascribe to strongly.

I guess what I'm saying in respect to your theory that I think the 'fellowship' was formed much later - at least the part dedicated to the 3 heads of the dragon was.
I think Rhaegar is working different responsibilities and plans at different times. Not everything is always a multi-task, so to speak, though it can be.

Quote

Certainly there can be separate storylines. That being said, we are nearing the end and at a certain point, these storylines must intersect.

And they already have in the past. They don't have to re-intersect in the future.

Quote

Please correct me if I am wrong - by your logic, the lemontree is a symbol of this hidden pact. 

A clue. I'm not into symbols at all. I understand them, I just don't think that way - one of the reasons I'm in near awe of this work of GRRMs is that such very disparate people can all get enormous amounts of very different things and approaches out of it.

Quote

I don't think that is enough. The difference between well crafted writing and mediocre writing is literary devices and figurative language working on a variety of levels (it's the same reason we have a tendency to cringe when people sprinkle metaphors and similes like a salt shaker over their writing.)  It can be a symbol of this pact, but it cannot, or rather, it SHOULD NOT be enough for the lemon tree to exist only as a symbol yet contradict known facts - such as the climate of Braavos and that lemons do not traditionally grow there. (*Full Disclosure - I am a former English teacher, so this symbolism soapbox may purely be personal.)

But thats not a contradiction of facts. It would be if it was impossible for lemon trees to grow there, but its not impossible, its just not normal. We know for example that there are no trees in Braavos, except in the courtyards of the rich and mighty. And we know for example that there is a menagerie that keeps exotic animals who would never be found (or survive well in the climate) near Braavos. So we know its a thing for the rich to keep exotic stuff that isn't local and doesn't usually flourish in the local climate. A lemon tree is no big deal.
I'm pretty intransigent n this point because my grandparents had a lemon tree in their back yard, one that did very well and gave a ridiculous quantity of fruit, in a city with a cold climate (perhaps not as cold as Braavos in winter, but not in a natural climate for lemon trees) including regular (as in more mornings than not in the winter) frosts in winter and snows about 1/2 winters. They did that with no special effort for the tree, beyond a careful choice of sheltered location protected by the house, despite having a greenhouse garden.
I know that it is no huge thing to have a lemon tree in a slightly awkward climate, especially if you have great wealth.

Quote

Valid point, let me rephrase: I think he thought the turmoil would be manageable. I 100% agree with your points about Rickard.  Perhaps he was in on this whole thing and he is one of the Fellowship as well. He seems to have headed to the capital because of what Aerys did to Brandon, not what Rhaegar did to Lyanna.  Brandon was his heir, so he didn't want him killed. Yet, he may not have included him in on plans being made because, well, Brandon is a known hot head.

Yeah. Of course, its possible we just don't have enough of the full story. But we can only judge by what we have thus far.

Quote

Thank you, @corbon, for your back up re: an earlier Tourney in 281.

Well, I'm not ruling it in.  But I don;t see anything solid yet to rule it out - and like you, I think Elia's condition seems relevant to its timing.
It could well be that GRRM just didn't think about that. He's not infallible, just brilliant.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Re: the Fellowship, I don't know if it has to be 9.  After all, when Rhaegar rode out he only had six companions with him.  We can sort of figure it out from the World Book: 

So certainly Connington, Mooton, Lonmouth, Lewys Martell, and Arthur Dayne would comprise five of the companions.  A sixth could certainly be Oswell Whent.  Also if Oberyn had accompanied Elia to King's Landing he could fit in as well.  

I very much doubt Connington was part of the Fellowship, or rode out with him (though its possible he did).
The feeling I get from Connington's chapters plus what we learn about him in his youth from other sources is that he was crushing on a star that he was connected to, but also not a suitable character to fit within Rhaegar's trusted inner circle.

Quote

In his youth, Jon Connington had shared the disdain most knights had for bowmen, but he had grown wiser in exile.

Quote

As he climbed he remembered past ascents—a hundred with his lord father, who liked to stand and look out over woods and crags and sea and know that all he saw belonged to House Connington, and one (only one!) with Rhaegar Targaryen. Prince Rhaegar was returning from Dorne, and he and his escort had lingered here a fortnight. He was so young then, and I was younger. Boys, the both of us

Quote

Robert Baratheon had been hiding somewhere in the town, wounded and alone. Jon Connington had known that, and he had also known that Robert's head upon a spear would have put an end to the rebellion, then and there. He was young and full of pride. How not? King Aerys had named him Hand and given him an army, and he meant to prove himself worthy of that trust, of Rhaegar's love. He would slay the rebel lord himself and carve a place out for himself in all the histories of the Seven Kingdoms.

Quote

Ser Kevan wished that he could share his certainty. He had known Jon Connington, slightly—a proud youth, the most headstrong of the gaggle of young lordlings who had gathered around Prince Rhaegar Targaryen, competing for his royal favor. Arrogant, but able and energetic. 

Quote

Chief amongst the Mad King's supporters were three lords of his small council: Qarlton Chelsted, master of coin, Lucerys Velaryon, master of ships, and Symond Staunton, master of laws. The eunuch Varys, master of whisperers, and Wisdom Rossart, grand master of the Guild of Alchemists, also enjoyed the king's trust. Prince Rhaegar's support came from the younger men at court, including Lord Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooton of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth. The Dornishmen who had come to court with the Princess Elia were in the prince's confidence as well, particularly Prince Lewyn Martell, Elia's uncle and a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard. But the most formidable of all Rhaegar's friends and allies in King's Landing was surely Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning.

Quote

"As my princess commands. Connington was Lord of Griffin's Roost when Griffin's Roost was still a lordship worth the having. Prince Rhaegar's squire, or one of them. Later Prince Rhaegar's friend and companion. 

Quote

"Well, I saw him twice or thrice, but I was only ten when Robert killed him, and mine own sire had me hidden underneath a rock. No, I cannot claim I knew Prince Rhaegar. Not as your false father did. Lord Connington was the prince's dearest friend, was he not?"

Young Griff pushed a lock of blue hair out of his eyes. "They were squires together at King's Landing."

Young JonCon was a squire with Prince Rhaegar (maybe, thats what he's told YG, doesn't mean its precisely true) and then a squire to Prince Rhaegar.
He was younger than Rhaegar, proud, headstrong, arrogant and disdainful. That doesn't sound like someone older, higher ranked, dutiful and bookish is likely to actually like and trust. 
People who were around then describe JonCon as being one of Rhaegar's supporters, or competing for his favour. People who were not, assume they were friends based on JonCon being awarded the Handship when Rhaegar couldn't be found.
Rhaegar only ever came to JonCon's home once, on the way back from somewhere else.

I have the strong impression JonCon and Rhaegar were not at all close. JonCon was merely one (the most able and energetic one) of a group of younger Lords at court who followed Rhaegar, and in JCs case crushed on him. 

ETA: The JonCon stuff above is a perfect example of what I wrote about my thinking being mostly generic. I absolutely had JonCon pegged in my head as not being truly close to Rhaegar at all, despite the data we have saying he was his friend. I didn't really recall any of the data points above specifically, but as I found them writing this it becomes more and more clear why/how that strong 'impression' had formed. That can be reversed of course if some strong competing data comes out, something I've missed or something new, but it will have to be pretty strong to go up against that lot.
For example, Tyrion actually says JonCon was Rhagear's 'true' and 'dearest' friend - but given the context of the statement (the dearest part was a question, probably subtly sarc-y, to YG rather than a statement) and Tyrion's knowledge (he wasn't around court then) I do't consider that worth being called evidence vs the above.

[corbon]

7 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

So, without dragons it took a sneeze, a wildly incompetent and megalomaniac king, a love struck prince, a brutal civil war, a dissolute king that didn't really know what to do with the throne and then chaos. Interesting answer.

I'd agree that by the end Rhaegar was love-struck. But when exactly that happened is another thing entirely. The seeds may have been sown at Harrenhal, but I don't think they gave fruit until much much later, maybe before, quite possible after, the 'abduction'.

@Lady Rhodes  
Trying to kinda summarize how/where I feel about 'the theory' at this stage after a bit of a review.

The Fellowship's purpose
I like the general idea, not sold or unsold (I suspect I'll stay in that camp until after the next book or longer to be honest - but if I understand correctly, the motivation to share isn't just to 'convince people' but also to test the theory against/with other minds and find where it has weaknesses and needs adaptation).
If the purpose is the three heads wrt to tPtwP prophecy, I'd see it as being formed only after Elia has birthed Aegon and been ruled out as the mother of the third head, though possibly its core is the people Rhaegar already trusted and possibly confided in. Everything else seems to require too much contrary to character or unnecesssary (IMO) additional ideas that aren't (IMO) pointed to by the text.

One thing I have bit of a problem with is that Rhaegar clearly thought he was going to win vs Robert and there therefore wasn't any huge need to hide secret kids from multiple mothers. The only things that really needs 'hiding' is Lyanna in the short term, because of her huge value to either Aerys or the Rebels in the current situation, which clashes with his value of her. 
That kinda sees to kill most of the point of the theory. I guess i'm sort of reducing it to an 'inner circle' of people who knew most or all of the real motivations Rhaegar had and knew how important they were. And those of them who managed to survive for any time would be committed to keeping the 3 heads / PtwP viable as much as they could.

I can't see any point in a 'hiding them' plan until after Rhaegar dies, and then its all kinda gone to shit anyway for many of them.

Members
Rhaegar, Dayne, Whent I think are clearly/probably in from the start, or before the start, and probably Elia too. 
Rhaella is a possibility simply by being not-mad and part of the family. I can't see much more for or against for her.
Ashara makes sense given her connections to various people and events. I can see her being 'brought in' later, or being in early. No guarantees, but a reasonable candidate. I don't see anything that suggests she'd be a dragon mother though, or that Rhaegar thought he needed extra mothers beyond Elia, then Lyanna as Elia's substitute on the baby-mother side. 
A n uncertain problem with Ashara=Lemore in this theory is that Lemore must know Dany has 3 dragons. Yet that doesn't seem as significant or urgent to their plans for Aegon as one would expect, were she a true believer in the 3H/PtwP. Mostly we lack data here though.
Lyanna herself, could be in on it after Elia is rule out, or just effectively a tool, albeit a willing one.
Marywn is interesting due to his interests and connections and timing, but there's just not enough data to judge him in or out.
I don't rate Connington as a likely member given my previous post.
Doran or Oberyn are remote possibilities I guess, but there is no indication of it IMO in their stories as yet. Nor any significant reason why they'd be needed. On balance I'd think not.
Llewyn Martell? Maybe. No big pluses or minuses. He'd have enough sway I think that Doran and Oberyn wouldn't be needed. Small pluses would be his general siding with Rhaegar's faction and Elia in general.
Willem Darry? Some possibility - he trained Rhaegar. I think though he's just loyal to House Targaryen. I don't think Dany is one of Rhaegar's intended three heads. Rhaegar didn't actually have it right (again) I think. Though he was not that far off.
Mooton? I doubt it. He sounds like another one of the Connington type. Maybe not so arrogant or proud, but a 'younger supporter' rather than an 'inner circle' guy. He was with Connington at the BotB remember.
Lonmouth? Another of Rhaegar's younger supporters IMO, rather than a close confidant.

Barristan says this:

Quote

"I make no such claim, ser. Myles Mooton was Prince Rhaegar's squire, and Richard Lonmouth after him. When they won their spurs, he knighted them himself, and they remained his close companions. Young Lord Connington was dear to the prince as well, but his oldest friend was Arthur Dayne."

Remembering that Barristan himself was not in Rhaegar's confidence, and bearing in mind the Connington data, I read this as being a generic recount of Rhaegar's supporters/faction, rather than his inner circle - you can see how Dayne is differentiated as a different level. 

Did I miss anyone?

So, so far I'm looking at Rhaegar, Dayne, Whent, Ashara, Lyanna, Rhaella maybe, Lewyn maybe, Marwyn maybe. 5 certainties (assuming the theory is true), 3 possibles, maybe even Wylla or Willem Darry to make 9? (Wylla might not count being not much more than a servant).
Of those only Ashara lives, probably, Marwyn (could his not being dead somehow reverse-parallel Gandalfs death-life?), and Wylla if she counts.
Maybe Maester Aemon should count?

Who is left/still operating?
Ashara/Lemore with fAegon, whom she believes is Rhaegar's second head. 
Marwyn doesn't seem connected at all.
Doran and Oberyn didn't seem to stay connected. 
All the others either died or disappeared as far as we know. Lonmouth might be out there, but doesn't seem connected to anything.
Its possible Lyanna told Ned something, but nothing in his head or his actions point to that. I think he hasn't a clue.

I think with Rhaegar dead and his first head dead, Ashara likely gave up on the three heads part. If she was in it for the 3H/PtwP side she's probably just given up on that or hopes Rhaegar was misjudging things and somewhere down fAegon's future or line the prophecy will play out anyway.
 

I guess looking at that, I suppose I sort of dropped most of your original theory and adapted the parts that fit into my own existing best understandings.
I do try to avoid  just doing that, and am also very conscious of everyone's (including me) natural tendencies to just explain away stuff that doesn't fit your existing ideas (eg the lemongate stuff), so I try to be very careful about examining such stuff to see if it truly clashes with my thoughts or not. Maybe I do that well enough, maybe not. 

 

[corbon]

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Ok, I now see this as a great lesson in the importance of reading the whole thread before one responds to a question.

Well, yeah, but who has the time to do that! 
I'm certainly guilt of the same thing on occasion.
I'm very grateful for your input so far.

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Which is a way of saying I'm sorry for not reading all the good points you and @Lady Rhodes had made up to this point. After reading some of the discussion, let me say it looks to me that the best evidence we have to think the Harrenhal tourney occurs in the "less than two turns of the moon" timeframe is Meera's opening part of her tale that speaks to it being a "spring day." It fits with the participants at the tourney thinking that spring had finally arrived - aka being in the midst of the less than two turns window.

Ok, fair enough.
I don't think thats very strong (as argued in #33/#36) vs sorting out Elia's health/pregnancy/travel timing issues. But thats personal thoughts. 
Until I read through that quote about the pre-spring winter being clearly much milder, and connected that with the preparation/invitations/travel timing issue (which I'd thought about before - such a huge tourney with long travel required for many doesn't happen suddenly inside two months, and it was clearly announced long before "spring" was declared officially) I hadn't really thought to question the idea so much as vaguely wondered why the timing was what it was without enough interest to pursue it. 

Its a question I guess of summing up relative values.
What rates more highly? Meera's symbolic story-telling style? Or Elia's pregnancy timings and ability to risk travel?
I don't know for sure, but I guess I lean towards Elia's issues. 

What are the other timing indicators for Harrenhal Tourney? (Anyone?)