The Fellowship of the Prince that was Promised

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I pretty much disagree with all of this. The timeline is very wonky and I think Ashara is seen as being a lot bigger than she might be in reality. So that's really my whole opinion on the subject. But maybe you should include Varys in your fellowship.

Varys allegedly saved Aegon's life and as far as we know, he was who Rhaegar considered the PtwP. He remained in King's Landing after the Sack at the risk of his own life, when he could have fled. He counseled Aerys to keep his gates closed. That alone could have been his death sentence.

ETA - I should clarify that I don't mean it as Varys being someone who was in Rhaegar's confidence, but rather as someone who knew about the prophecy and what Rhaegar may have thought Aegon's future role was.

[Lady Rhodes]

The Varys bit is interesting but he certainly isn’t infallible. It seems he was unaware of the Braavos pact. 
There are a lot of questions that I have given the tourney of Harrenhal:

1) Why did Ned return to the Vale instead of attending Brandon’s wedding?

2)Why was Lyanna alone near Harrenhal months past the tourney? If she was with someone, who? And where are they now? (Or Is she the pregnant woman in Bran’s vision?)

3)Benjen was at the tourney but we don’t hear from him after that. Presumably he was the “Stark in Winterfell” during the rebellion, but I would like a little more information as to when he joined the Watch. Did he join after Rhaegar and the black brother asked for recruits at Harrenhal? In which case, is that why the Others have returned, as there would have been an extended period without a Stark in Winterfell?

4) Who fathered Ashara’s baby? I feel it keeps coming up (first in Game, then again in Clash, and then with Barristan in Dance) so it has to have some relevance. 
 

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

The Varys bit is interesting but he certainly isn’t infallible. It seems he was unaware of the Braavos pact. 
There are a lot of questions that I have given the tourney of Harrenhal:

1) Why did Ned return to the Vale instead of attending Brandon’s wedding?

Why “instead”? If there’s several months between the tourney and Lyanna disappearing, it kind of makes sense for Ned (and Robert?) to return to the Vale. 

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

2)Why was Lyanna alone near Harrenhal months past the tourney? If she was with someone, who? And where are they now? (Or Is she the pregnant woman in Bran’s vision?)

Was she alone? We don’t really know much at all... same for the other questions here; we can only speculate but there’s just too much we don’t know. She’s not the pregnant woman in Bran’s vision IMO. Bran's visions go backwards in time, in order.

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

3)Benjen was at the tourney but we don’t hear from him after that. Presumably he was the “Stark in Winterfell” during the rebellion, but I would like a little more information as to when he joined the Watch. Did he join after Rhaegar and the black brother asked for recruits at Harrenhal? In which case, is that why the Others have returned, as there would have been an extended period without a Stark in Winterfell?

4) Who fathered Ashara’s baby? I feel it keeps coming up (first in Game, then again in Clash, and then with Barristan in Dance) so it has to have some relevance. 
 

Sorry, lunch break over. Will edit and add at the end of the day,

 

[frenin]

57 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

) Why did Ned return to the Vale instead of attending Brandon’s wedding?

I believe because the wedding was not right away, at the time the wedding party was just being gathered.

 

 

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

)Why was Lyanna alone near Harrenhal months past the tourney? If she was with someone, who? And where are they now? (Or Is she the pregnant woman in Bran’s vision?)

I believe she was hanging out with Brandon, Robert and Ned, they went to the Vale to pick up Elbert  Arryn and Kyle Royce and then Lyanna was a host with the Whents, the Tullys were kin  with them,  and Brandon went North to reunite with his father. I don't believe that she was alone, that's pretty much impossible, she should be well guarded.

Rhaegar came and try to take her, the intentions here are anyone's guess, and there was a fight, the guard went to Brandon and then to Rickard and they all died at KL.

 

 

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

)Benjen was at the tourney but we don’t hear from him after that. Presumably he was the “Stark in Winterfell” during the rebellion, but I would like a little more information as to when he joined the Watch. Did he join after Rhaegar and the black brother asked for recruits at Harrenhal? In which case, is that why the Others have returned, as there would have been an extended period without a Stark in Winterfell?

He joined pretty much with the rebellion ended and Ned went North iirc.

 

 

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

4) Who fathered Ashara’s baby? I feel it keeps coming up (first in Game, then again in Clash, and then with Barristan in Dance) so it has to have some relevance. 

I'm on the opinion  that there was no baby...

[SFDanny]

4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

There are a lot of questions that I have given the tourney of Harrenhal:

1) Why did Ned return to the Vale instead of attending Brandon’s wedding?

Ned, Robert, and Lyanna are likely attending Brandon's and Catelyn's marriage in Riverrun. They are not missing it by going to the Vale in the interval between the tourney at Harrenhal and the wedding. In the months that make up that interval the Vale is the most likely place for them to stay, for a number of reasons. As foster sons to Jon Arryn the relationship is an ongoing one for Ned and Robert, so for them to spend time with Lord Arryn is normal and expected. It allows Ned and Robert to spend time with others they grew up with in the Vale. But more importantly, I think, is that the aftermath of the events at Harrenhal needs discussion between the families to develop a response to what the Targaryens did at the tourney. Lord Rickard needs to come south for the marriage, as the app tells us he was doing. Benjen needed to go north to be the "Stark in Winterfell" while his father is attending Brandon's wedding. So, where do the other Starks go? I think the answer is the same for all of them. They go to the Vale to await the impending wedding and to plan. That includes, Brandon, Ned, and Lyanna, with Benjen likely going there first before he leaves to Winterfell, or going directly north from the tourney with an escort of Stark retainers.

The response to the Targaryens seems to directly defy the wishes of Aerys and Rhaegar and go ahead with the marriages. That may have entailed  moving up one or more of the planned marriages. I think the answer is that both are accelerated to cement the ties between the Great Houses the betrothal pacts have started.

4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

2)Why was Lyanna alone near Harrenhal months past the tourney? If she was with someone, who? And where are they now? (Or Is she the pregnant woman in Bran’s vision?)

She almost certainly isn't alone. A young noble woman of Lyanna's age, 14 or 15 at the time, is almost always in the company of people to protect her physically and her reputation. Stark guardsmen should be with her, as well as an older female chaperone (a Septa Mordane type figure.) What we know from Dany's thoughts on the encounter is that Lyanna is taken at "sword points" and the presence of these guards would explain the reason for those drawn swords. Rhaegar, Ser Arthur, and Ser Oswell certainly don't need to draw swords against Lyanna traveling alone, even if we accept the encounter as an actual "kidnapping." Now if you want a name of a likely escort for Lyanna, I'd say Martyn Cassel. Jory's father who is buried at the Tower of Joy. I can't give another name, but others should be with her.

The question is why is she traveling in the Riverlands near Harrenhal? I don't think she had been staying with the Whents at Harrenhal itself because the outcome of the tourney with Rhaegar's crowning Lyanna and making a de facto declaration of his opposition to Lyanna's marriage to Robert would seem to preclude her staying with a House so closely aligned with Rhaegar. No, I think she has been sent under escort from the Vale to Riverrun in preparation to the upcoming wedding. A wedding that might well include her own to Robert. A double wedding such as happens with Ned and Catelyn and with Jon Arryn and Lysa about a year later. The encounter likely takes place at the Inn of the Crossroads. We don't know if there are any survivors in the present story timeline to the encounter.

4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

3)Benjen was at the tourney but we don’t hear from him after that. Presumably he was the “Stark in Winterfell” during the rebellion, but I would like a little more information as to when he joined the Watch. Did he join after Rhaegar and the black brother asked for recruits at Harrenhal? In which case, is that why the Others have returned, as there would have been an extended period without a Stark in Winterfell?

No, Benjen is the Stark in Winterfell throughout the rebellion and he joins the Night's Watch shortly after Ned's return to the North. Many people have asked Martin why Benjen joined the Watch when he did and he is not telling us the answer. We would all like a little more information but we have to wait and speculate. My own guess is that Benjen knew Lyanna's attraction towards Rhaegar, and he knew her opposition to her marriage to Robert. I think the Starks were split between those who supported Rickard's betrothal pledge to Robert for Lyanna's Hand, and Lyanna and Benjen who opposed it. I think Benjen early joining with the Black Brothers is because of the tensions caused by the attempt to force Lyanna to go through with the marriage. I believe that even though Benjen loves Ned, he also still blames him, in part, for Lyanna's death.

And, no, the Others have returned while there is still a Stark in Winterfell. 

4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

4) Who fathered Ashara’s baby? I feel it keeps coming up (first in Game, then again in Clash, and then with Barristan in Dance) so it has to have some relevance. 

I believe the baby's father is Brandon. The point is that Brandon was pledged to marry Catelyn and it was not a love match, but a political alliance, or rather part of a web of political alliances between High Lords. Brandon chooses his duty to his father over whatever happened between Ashara  and him at Harrenhal. Unlike Robb and Jeyne, Brandon feels no compulsion to "do right" by the women he sleeps with. He is very much in Robert's mould when we are talking about the treatment of women. Did either Brandon or Ashara ever love one another? We don't know, but the Stark that Ser Barristan tells us Ashara turned to is likely Brandon, not Ned. Eddard might have been attracted to Ashara at the tourney, but I think his feelings towards Ashara are those of a honorable brother of a man who left a woman in disgrace. 

[Lady Rhodes]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Why “instead”? If there’s several months between the tourney and Lyanna disappearing, it kind of makes sense for Ned (and Robert?) to return to the Vale. 

Upon the arrival of mounting evidence, it seems that the tourney and the abduction were closer together that I had originally anticipated.  I am thinking a month or two.  However, if it is further apart, by a measure of months, that does resolve the issue because, yes, it would make sense for him to return back. 

That said, if it solves that issue, another arises: what was Lyanna doing back in the Riverlands?

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Bran's visions go backwards in time, in order.

I've never noticed this. Can you elaborate?

2 hours ago, frenin said:

the wedding party was just being gathered.

This was my initial thoughts as well, but as we saw when Catelyn and Tyrion traveled, going  through the Vale isn't an easy journey - arduous at best, dangerous at worst. Now, it is certainly traveled, yet if Ned was going to have to return in a month or two, why not just hang out?  Especially when he would have had to travel further west (to Riverrun).

2 hours ago, frenin said:

they went to the Vale to pick up Elbert  Arryn and Kyle Royce

I don't think this is right.  Both of them were with Brandon when he road south to Kings Landing. Why would Ned and Robert not have gone with them if a group from the Vale (Arryn and Royce) were meeting up with Brandon somewhere? No, I believe that they were with Brandon since the beginning (Tourney)

3 hours ago, frenin said:

I'm on the opinion  that there was no baby...

Oh really? Why do you think that the rouse was created?

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

In the months

How many months are we talking here? I am speaking of one to two. 

Ned and Robert made it to the Vale, but why not Lyanna?  I think Brandon immediately headed to Riverrun (duel with Petyr Baelish), so I doubt he went to the Vale.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Now if you want a name of a likely escort for Lyanna, I'd say Martyn Cassel. Jory's father who is buried at the Tower of Joy. I can't give another name, but others should be with her.

Interesting thought, but why would he have lived? I am thinking of Cersei when Tyrion had Tommen taken en route to Rosby.  She was wroth with Ser Boros Blount! I can't see Rickard being any less pleased (unless, of course, he was in on this somehow, but I really have no thoughts on that.)  I can't imagine any Northman surrendering Lyanna.  Unless she slipped away, which would be entirely in character.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

A wedding that might well include her own to Robert. A double wedding such as happens with Ned and Catelyn and with Jon Arryn and Lysa about a year later. The encounter likely takes place at the Inn of the Crossroads. We don't know if there are any survivors in the present story timeline to the encounter.

Why are Ned and Robert not traveling with them?  Your theory makes a lot of sense except for that part, for me.  Why not all travel in a group? It would be safer that way.  

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

You will have to refresh my memory about a pregnant woman in Bran's vision.

It is vague in my memories as well, but in Dance, when he is looking into the past, he sees a pregnant woman emerging from water below a weirwood, I believe.  Someone correct me if I am wrong.

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I believe that even though Benjen loves Ned, he also still blames him, in part, for Lyanna's death.

And, no, the Others have returned while there is still a Stark in Winterfell. 

Thank you for this clarification! I appreciate it.  I agree with 99% of your analysis of Benjen leaving, with one exception. I don't think he held it against Ned.  Ned wasn't involved until Aerys called for his head, after Rickard and Brandon were killed.  Earlier in this thread, it was noted that only Brandon really freaked out about Lyanna's abduction - Rickard came to King's Landing for Brandon.  

 

[frenin]

45 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This was my initial thoughts as well, but as we saw when Catelyn and Tyrion traveled, going  through the Vale isn't an easy journey - arduous at best, dangerous at worst. Now, it is certainly traveled, yet if Ned was going to have to return in a month or two, why not just hang out?  Especially when he would have had to travel further west (to Riverrun).

Because they were visiting old pals  in the Vale. And contrary to Cat or Tyrion, Robert and Ned have made the travel  dozens of times.

 

45 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I don't think this is right.  Both of them were with Brandon when he road south to Kings Landing. Why would Ned and Robert not have gone with them if a group from the Vale (Arryn and Royce) were meeting up with Brandon somewhere? No, I believe that they were with Brandon since the beginning (Tourney)

Ned and Robert would have wanted to stay a bit more with old Jon and Yohn Royce and the such, at the end of the day, for Ned and Robert the Vale was their second home.

Brandon would have wanted to rush however and i suppose that his pals  were likeminded, so the group parted ways while according to meet on Riverrun.

 

 

45 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Oh really? Why do you think that the rouse was created?

Ashara killed herself, Ned left Dorne with a kid, those two had been spotted in Harrenhall before... One thing led to another. A fake dead baby is a great excuse for a fake suicide too.

[kissdbyfire]

20 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I've never noticed this. Can you elaborate?

Sure. Bran sees, in order: Ned praying for Robb and Jon to grow up close as brothers; Lyanna and Benjen as kids playing in the godswood. Then the glimpses come faster and faster... (which seems to indicate bigger leaps in time) and he sees the pregnant woman, ON & Dunk (IMO), a dark eyed youth making weirwood arrows (possibly Brandon Snow). Then the tree is shrinking and getting smaller with each vision (further and further backwards in time), and Bran sees men “tall and hard, stern men in fur and chain mail. Some wore faces he remembered from the statues in the crypts”. And it ends w/ the execution before the heart tree, which seems to be a very long time ago. 

Seems to start ~ 16/17 yrs ago, the next one Lyanna and Benjen are kids, then pregnant woman, then Dunk and young ON, so that’s ~ 85-90 years ago, then if the bloke is Brandon Snow, he was a bastard brother of Torrhen Stark, so even earlier. Then the hard tall men in furs, and Bran recognises some from the statues in the crypts, and the execution, which seems to go all the way back to ancient times. That’s just my take on it, of course. 

[corbon]

19 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But do I think we should include all six as close confidants of Rhaegar? Absolutely! Some of whom he may have told of his views on prophecy. Others he may have relied upon as members of his political inner circle.

As I noted already, I think the evidence is pretty strong that JonCon was not one of Rhaegar confidants.

For him, Mooton and Lonmouth, all we really have suggests that they are Rhaegar's juniors (squires etc, several years younger) and supported him politically vs the 'old guard'.
They would have had regular access to him as well, due to their personal realtionships as squires or ex-squires of his, but that desn;t make them confidants.
We see with JonCon's recollections and early character that he wasn't likely to have been the sort to be in the confidence of a Crown Prince with the character that Rhaegar is described with. We see with Lonmouth him hanging out with Robert and trying to drink each other under the table, then later together declaring they'd catch the KotLT. Seems like Lonmouth was more a fit to Robert than Rhaegar in character. Mooton we seem less, but the three are lumped together by Barristan (an outsider to the group, so he only knows what he can see from the outside) and also by the limited information we have on them. Arthur Dayne was clearly 'more', even Barrista could tell.

In short, I doubt that the younger three were members of any inner circle, more like accepted hanger's on.

19 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Thanks for a very interesting discussion.

Hear, hear!

19 hours ago, SFDanny said:

it sounds as if the measures that Ser Arthur took to win the hearts and minds of the bandit's supporters took a while. This wasn't a blitzkrieg assault on them that easily destroyed the outlaws. That it took a half a year or more wouldn't surprise me. Exactly when Jaime joins Ser Arthur's efforts is unknown, but we do know he is knighted after his early name day in 281. So, my only quibble here really is that Jaime was fifteen by the time he rode out to fight against the bandits. His timing for his arrival in the campaign is unclear, but it could well be when he is fourteen in 280, and only that he becomes a knight after he turns fifteen. Or am I missing something here?

Seems well put together to me.

6 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

1) Why did Ned return to the Vale instead of attending Brandon’s wedding?

Answered by others, I agree, no reason not to go back to the Vale. And I like SFDanny's idea about political talks being required. I'm just not so sold on the political side as he is. Not unsold, either mind you.

6 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

2)Why was Lyanna alone near Harrenhal months past the tourney? If she was with someone, who? And where are they now? (Or Is she the pregnant woman in Bran’s vision?)

As KbF notes, i'm pretty sure she is not the pregnant women in the vision. I completely argree with her analysis about eth vision going back in time and even the suggested likely subjects.
If she was alone, which I doubt, its likely for the same reason Arya might be found alone...
If she was with someone,then it seems unlikely to be anyone especially notable - I like the Martyn Cassel idea, but thats just an educated and interesting supposition. Where are they now - dead most like.

6 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

4) Who fathered Ashara’s baby? I feel it keeps coming up (first in Game, then again in Clash, and then with Barristan in Dance) so it has to have some relevance. 

I agree with SFDanny - mst likely Brandon, but we don't know for sure.

41 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

That said, if it solves that issue, another arises: what was Lyanna doing back in the Riverlands?

It takes a lot longer to go back to Winterfell (and come back down again). 

41 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This was my initial thoughts as well, but as we saw when Catelyn and Tyrion traveled, going  through the Vale isn't an easy journey - arduous at best, dangerous at worst. Now, it is certainly traveled, yet if Ned was going to have to return in a month or two, why not just hang out?  Especially when he would have had to travel further west (to Riverrun).

You don't have to go through the Mountains of the Moon to get to the Vale. Cat went that way because it was the shortest, and most dangerous, and least likely, so she threw pursuit in different directions and took the risk.
I'd imagine you could more safely travel down the Trident to Saltpans or Maidenpool and then by ship to Gulltown, Old Anchor, or maybe even near Longbow Hall and up the Vale of Arryn.

21 minutes ago, frenin said:

Lyanna killed herself, Ned left Dorne with a kid, those two had been spotted in Harrenhall before... One thing led to another. A fake dead baby is a great excuse for a fake suicide too.

That desn;t explain Barristan's thoughts. 
He clearly thinks she was dishonoured at Harrenhal. And looked to Stark. That doesn't jive with made up shit over a year later.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

1) Why did Ned return to the Vale instead of attending Brandon’s wedding?

The App seems to imply that the wedding date was set after Harrenhal and right before the duel between LF and Brandon.

Ned being in the Vale doesn't mean he was not going to attend his brother's wedding. Brandon's wedding as I've said before in other threads is probably a lot more important to the narrative because of the lords it might attract. To me, this is was an opportunity to try and salvage the plans that went sideways at Harrenhal.

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2)Why was Lyanna alone near Harrenhal months past the tourney? If she was with someone, who? And where are they now? (Or Is she the pregnant woman in Bran’s vision?)

She's not near Harrenhal. We are told that she was abducted not 10 leagues from there. She must have been within a 10 league radius of the castle, which pretty much puts her anywhere. I know someone will correct me by giving the proper quote. I'm not getting up for the book again.

We don't know that she was alone. Maybe she was fostered out like her brothers were, somewhere in the south. Maybe she went to some castle to become a lady companion. But it's difficult to speculate.

And she's not the pregnant woman. The things happening in Bran's vision are taking place in the godswood of Winterfell and the chronology of events is showing that time is going backward. 

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3)Benjen was at the tourney but we don’t hear from him after that. Presumably he was the “Stark in Winterfell” during the rebellion, but I would like a little more information as to when he joined the Watch. Did he join after Rhaegar and the black brother asked for recruits at Harrenhal? In which case, is that why the Others have returned, as there would have been an extended period without a Stark in Winterfell?

Rhaegar didn't ask for recruits. And we all want more information about the reason he joined. I personally think he was following his father's wishes on this one. Apparently he was impressed by the black brother who spoke at Harrenhal (this is also paraphrased from the App), even though I'm not really sure why a son of Winterfell who would have seen black brothers come and go at the castle and may have interacted with them would be so impressed specifically at that moment.

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4) Who fathered Ashara’s baby? I feel it keeps coming up (first in Game, then again in Clash, and then with Barristan in Dance) so it has to have some relevance. 

Brandon did. Brandon was a fuckboy. It has relevance if Allyria is Ashara's daughter that they were passing off as her sister instead. And Ashara's baby keeps coming with regards to Jon being the baby in question. Catelyn thought Ashara was the mother and Cersei clearly heard the same rumors since she brings it up to Ned. But Barristan straight up blames Brandon for Ashara's predicament, so he probably saw something at Harrenhal or heard something directly from his Arthur who was his sworn brother. 

Personally, I think Brandon's ride heedless ride to King's Landing was not about dueling Rhaegar, but about forcing his father's hand to remove Aerys from the throne. I think Brandon's outrage over Rheagar giving Lyanna the laurels of QoLaB was about Rhaegar shining a spotlight on her, after Aerys named the KotLT a traitor, because I'm thinking her brothers knew what she had been up to and it couldn't have been that difficult for them to figure it out after they saw who the mystery knight chose to challenge. I think her identity was revealed and that Rhaegar received word of that and went to find her before his father's men did.  I think Brandon knew all of that when he rode into King's Landing. 

But there's negative diddly to prove that Brandon knew anything since all the people who were with him ended up dead. So you know . . .

[frenin]

55 minutes ago, corbon said:

That desn;t explain Barristan's thoughts. 
He clearly thinks she was dishonoured at Harrenhal. And looked to Stark. That doesn't jive with made up shit over a year later.

It really does tho, if there is no baby nothing Barristan says would change, Barristan would simply believe that there had to be a baby when there was none.

[Lady Rhodes]

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Rhaegar didn't ask for recruits.

Actually, there is textual evidence that may prove contrary. In Meera's tale:

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"Under Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch.

On a first reading, it is a list of events that happened at the feast.  On subsequent readings, it is a cause and effect. Rhaegar sang a song that made the wolf maid cry and then a black brother asked for people to join the watch. The song was the attempt at recruitment.

RE: multiple posts about Ned, Robert and the Vale

Perhaps my head cannon has gotten ahead of me. Let me clarify my question:

I had initially been under the impression that the Tourney of Harrenhal happened about 9 months prior to Lyanna's abduction/Brandon's wedding.  I have since revised that assumption.  Perhaps because of my revision I am not familiar with already accepted belief.  How far apart are we saying ToH and Lyanna's abduction are? I am thinking like 2-3 months. Is this not accepted belief? What is the accepted time frame?

A few people mentioned that Ned and Robert were fostered in the Vale, so they probably wanted to visit.  However, we know that Aerys told Jon Arryn he wanted Robert and Ned's heads, making it seem that they were actively still fostered her and that they only left to attend the tourney and presumably the wedding, before returning.  So, this wouldn't be a visit. The idea that they would visit the Vale while in the area (since the Vale is comparatively close to the Riverlands when compared to Winterfell and Storm's End) would make sense if they had been in Winterfell and Storm's End, but they haven't been.  The suggestions about political machinations are excellent ones, but again, since they are actively being fostered in the Vale, it would make even more sense for them to be speaking to Riverlords, etc during these intervening months. Why didn't they head to Riverrun immediately, traveling with Brandon to get the Northmen that were coming down the Neck? 

Yet, we know they are in the Vale.

We know winter returned with a vengeance at the end of 281, beginning of 282, so did they just get stuck there?

I suppose the short answer is I remember 10-15 years ago there was a story in the news that a husband murdered his wife but his "cover" was he drove three hours to go fishing for an hour and he came back.  Plausible? Sure. But why would anyone do that?  I say this to explain that sure, maybe they just went back to the Vale.  But I have trouble seeing why they would do that unless something else was going on that required them to go.

 

RE: Lyanna - Ok I will rephrase.  She is in the Riverlands vicinity.  We have no knowledge or mention of her being fostered anywhere, nor any note of any companions, which is odd.  Either she ran on her own accord, which would be in character, her companions were killed or aren't talking, or she was alone.  We don't hear of any companions for her and why would Northmen surrender her?  If Rickard wanted to build southern alliances, wouldn't it have been a good idea to send her to Riverrun with Brandon or to the Vale with Robert and Ned, if the latter really was innocuous. 

 

[kissdbyfire]

6 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Actually, there is textual evidence that may prove contrary. In Meera's tale:

On a first reading, it is a list of events that happened at the feast.  On subsequent readings, it is a cause and effect. Rhaegar sang a song that made the wolf maid cry and then a black brother asked for people to join the watch. The song was the attempt at recruitment.

RE: multiple posts about Ned, Robert and the Vale

Perhaps my head cannon has gotten ahead of me. Let me clarify my question:

I had initially been under the impression that the Tourney of Harrenhal happened about 9 months prior to Lyanna's abduction/Brandon's wedding.  I have since revised that assumption.  Perhaps because of my revision I am not familiar with already accepted belief.  How far apart are we saying ToH and Lyanna's abduction are? I am thinking like 2-3 months. Is this not accepted belief? What is the accepted time frame?

I think 9 months is too much. For me, 2-3 months “works”, but I reserve the right to change my mind once we learn more.

6 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

A few people mentioned that Ned and Robert were fostered in the Vale, so they probably wanted to visit.  However, we know that Aerys told Jon Arryn he wanted Robert and Ned's heads, making it seem that they were actively still fostered her and that they only left to attend the tourney and presumably the wedding, before returning.  So, this wouldn't be a visit. The idea that they would visit the Vale while in the area (since the Vale is comparatively close to the Riverlands when compared to Winterfell and Storm's End) would make sense if they had been in Winterfell and Storm's End, but they haven't been.  The suggestions about political machinations are excellent ones, but again, since they are actively being fostered in the Vale, it would make even more sense for them to be speaking to Riverlords, etc during these intervening months. Why didn't they head to Riverrun immediately, traveling with Brandon to get the Northmen that were coming down the Neck? 

Yet, we know they are in the Vale.

We know winter returned with a vengeance at the end of 281, beginning of 282, so did they just get stuck there?

I suppose the short answer is I remember 10-15 years ago there was a story in the news that a husband murdered his wife but his "cover" was he drove three hours to go fishing for an hour and he came back.  Plausible? Sure. But why would anyone do that?  I say this to explain that sure, maybe they just went back to the Vale.  But I have trouble seeing why they would do that unless something else was going on that required them to go.

Ned and Robert were wards of Jon Arryn, so yes, the Vale was “home away from home”, sorta. They attend the tourney, and at that point Brandon’s wedding date hadn’t been set yet - but it doesn’t even matter if it has. The tourney ends and they return to the Vale. Either to wait for a date to be set, or, if it had been set, it’s for 2-3 months from now. As you said yourself, the Vale and the Riverlands are not that far from each other. What else should they have done instead of going “home”, or to put it differently, going to the place where they lived, to wait for the date to be set or the time to travel to RR to attend Brandon’s wedding? 

6 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

RE: Lyanna - Ok I will rephrase.  She is in the Riverlands vicinity.  We have no knowledge or mention of her being fostered anywhere, nor any note of any companions, which is odd.  Either she ran on her own accord, which would be in character, her companions were killed or aren't talking, or she was alone.  We don't hear of any companions for her and why would Northmen surrender her?  If Rickard wanted to build southern alliances, wouldn't it have been a good idea to send her to Riverrun with Brandon or to the Vale with Robert and Ned, if the latter really was innocuous. 

 

Lyanna could have been guesting somewhere, even Harrenhal. No, I don’t think she was fostered anywhere. But the main problem here is, Martin doesn’t want us to know these things yet, so we have practically zero information. It’s deliberate, and not much we can do about it. I think she was going to go to Brandon’s wedding; I think she was a guest in some castle in the general area, maybe Harrenhal. I don’t buy Barbrey Dustin’s “southron ambitions”, I think it’s either bollocks or something she was told by someone else. As to the rest, who was with Lyanna, why didn’t the northerners resist (which northerners?)?, etc, it’s just impossible to know. In fact, irt these specific questions it’s difficult even to speculate, b/c we know very, very little, and there are quite a few possibilities. 

[corbon]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

It really does tho, if there is no baby nothing Barristan says would change, Barristan would simply believe that there had to be a baby when there was none.

Hmmm. Ok. 

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

On a first reading, it is a list of events that happened at the feast.  On subsequent readings, it is a cause and effect. Rhaegar sang a song that made the wolf maid cry and then a black brother asked for people to join the watch. The song was the attempt at recruitment.

I agree that its possible to read it this way, not that it is a normal reading.

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

RE: multiple posts about Ned, Robert and the Vale

Perhaps my head cannon has gotten ahead of me. Let me clarify my question:

I had initially been under the impression that the Tourney of Harrenhal happened about 9 months prior to Lyanna's abduction/Brandon's wedding.  I have since revised that assumption.  Perhaps because of my revision I am not familiar with already accepted belief.  How far apart are we saying ToH and Lyanna's abduction are? I am thinking like 2-3 months. Is this not accepted belief? What is the accepted time frame?

I think there is still plenty of room.

As I understand it we've basically tied Harrenhal to around July-November 281, with a lean towards the later period of that for some.
Rhaegar's journey begins in the new year (very early January - "with the coming of the new year... the prince had taken to the road...") but we don't have a clear idea when it 'ultimately' led to the riverlands and Lyanna's abduction. 

Interesting side note:
 - the snow started falling on the last day of the year and fell for 2 weeks
 - the crust of ice started forming on the Blackwater the same day (it must have already been rather cold/below freezing for a while then!)
 - the green fires burned atop the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Its not clear when they started, but I'd suggest probably not at least until after the snow started, and maybe a week or more into the snow period
So clearly travel was still possible during this time because Rhaegar sets off just as it starts!

Also note that the fires burned for a month. Then stopped. My guess is the severe cold snap broke then. Winter either ended entirely shortly after or went back into the ever-mild-ening climate like before the tourney.
I don't see any real evidence for the entire rebellion (or even any of it) being in "winter". We just aren't told when "winter" ended.
I think its likely just the extreme cold snap, after the spring tourney, that made it into a "False Spring" year.

Another thing to keep in mind, is that Ned and Cat aren't married until after the BotB, and they spent their first year apart (after the first couple of weeks obviously). Meaning BotB to the Sack, + the extra time Ned spent in the South, must be at least 12 months, probably longer.
While Ned has a lot of ground to cover in the south after the Sack - KL to Storms End, Storms Ed to ToJ, ToJ to Starfall, Starfall to KL (probably, his opportunity to make up with Robert and when Robert first hears the name Wylla from Ned) and then to Winterfell, This shouldn't take more than 6 months or so. Ned must know that Cat was pregnant and should have had a child already by now, probably knows he has as son to see, plus at some stage he also has a bastard to sort out. He's not going to be mucking around. Plus he got to Winterfell before Cat did (not that she has to leave immediately after Robb was born, but how long is she going to wait? No more than she has too I would expect).

Consequently I would put the Battle of the Bells around 6 months or more before The Sack. Maybe a little less, maybe a little more. But every month more lengthens the time it took Ned to get back to Winterfell after the war. And at 6 months between BotB and the Sack, thats already at least 6 months after the Sack Ned is spending away.

So I revisited your timeline with some of the things that I skimmed a bit earlier, sorry..

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

6.       Rhaegar and “companions” leave Dragonstone for the Riverlands at the end of January 282 AC

I paid attention up to here, didn't think this was worth pushing. 
I think the text clearly says Rhaegar and his companions left at the start of January.

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

7.       Brandon is in Riverrun and duels Littlefinger. He leaves to join the northmen heading south. January 282 AC

Don't know when exactly this is. This is fine for me, more or less.

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

8.       Lyanna disappears shortly thereafter – early February 282 AC.

I don;t think this, and the following, need to be anywhere near so early. I think there's a lot of much quicker travel available and these early dates are pushed back by longer travel estimates than necessary.
Certainly you've put a very cramped trip for Rhaegar. His travels "ultimately" end up in the Riverlands, but it seems like timewise you've pretty much got him going there directly?

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

9.       Brandon hears of Lyanna’s disappearance and rides south with a few retainers.  As Lady Dustin notes, he was incredibly skilled with a horse, like a centaur, so despite the weather, he could most likely get there quite quickly. By my estimates, he reached King’s Landing no later than end of February 282 AC.

 

10.   Brandon is taken capture. Rickard takes his 200 northmen south.  Now, they were already heading south, so they wouldn’t have to take time to garrison. The north is as big as the other six kingdoms combined, so they were a good way into their journey already. Still, it is a large party and these are winter roads.  He does not get there until beginning of April 282 AC.

 

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

11. At this point, Aerys II tells Jon Arryn he wants the heads of Robert and Ned and Jon refuses.  He calls his banners and from this point forward, the rebellion starts and last approximately a year. Given that this is said in the same paragraph as he is talking about the Sack of King’s Landing, I am presuming that Ned considers the “end” of the war to be the sack and the lifting of the siege of Storm’s End as loose ends to be tied up. (Game – Ned II) We will use April 282 AC as the start point for the rebellion.

And if there is a longer time between BotB and BotTrident, then this can come forward to maybe june, july? In the meantime, I'm going to treat the 1yr rebellion timeline as starting in April, but I think it probably starts quite a bit later than that. We need to have the BotBs timing work for Ned and Cat to spend a year apart as well.

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

*Again, I cannot emphasize enough that I rely heavily on the fact that this rebellion occurred in winter and have created my timeline to reflect such events. This is especially key because the Battle of the Bells is said to be the first battle of 283 AC. That means steps 12-15 have to occur between April and January.

Understood, but travel is still clearly possible and probably not that affected outside the nasty cold snap at the start of the year.
Also, sea travel is fast, relatively speaking. 

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

12. Fleeing the Vale –

 

Ned- From the Eyrie, through the Mountains of the Moon, to the Fingers would take, by my estimate at least two weeks because we have a similar parallel to compare it to. Ned would be going alone or with only a couple of companions, given the fact that Gulltown was declaring their loyalty to the Targaryen’s and it would have been reckless to assume other houses would automatically be loyal to the rebel cause, he would not have been traveling on the roads; more likely,  he would be traveling by night or off road or both.

Two weeks is reasonable I think. 

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

Compare this to a significant portion of A Storm of Swords has the Hound and Arya traveling the Vale, in autumn weather, traveling not necessarily secretly, but certainly using discretion. For this reason, I speculate that Ned was not able to take the boat to the Three Sister’s until Mid May 282 AC.

Thats up to 6 weeks. I don't see any reason Ned isn't on that boat by the end of april.

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

Robert – From the Eyrie, he went to Gulltown, and after an unknown amount of time, the cities defenses fell and he was able to flee to Storm’s End. Because of the known date of Battle of the Bells (first battle of 283), I am assuming that he did not leave until mid-June 282.

I think thats extremely unlikely. 
Gulltown is a port city, not a fortress, and its walls fell by storm, not siege. The Rebels would be moving hastily and both sides would have limited forces. Robert would be in great haste to get back to the Stormlands. I would expect Robert to be on board ship before Ned was, mid April say.

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

13. Travel time from Three Sisters to Winterfell – Ned did not arrive until Early-Mid June 282 AC. Robert would have had to have traveled by sea during winter at a much further distance than Ned. He did not arrive in Storm’s End until Mid-August 282 AC.

I'd give Ned a month or so from getting on the boat to Winterfell's gates, to the end of May. It could even be much quicker. Travel by sea is much quicker than by land, but he still has a long way to travel from White Harbour to WInterfell.
Ned has plenty of wiggle room though. He's not really critical back south until the BotB, and that quite a way ahead.

But Robert should be in the Stormlands within a week or so. He's got a direct sea voyage the whole way from Gulltown to Storms End, no doubt on the fastest ship in Gulltown.
Robert in Storms End before the end of April IMO.

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

14. Robert caught wind of some of the stormlords going again him, so he marched to Summerhall, fighting 3 battles in one day. Then, he returned to Storm’s End, turned enemies into friends and then marched to Ashford. To go from Storm’s End to Summerhall, Battle, Summerhall to Storm’s End, build alliances, and then March to Ashford. I believe this would bring us to mid-October 282 AC.

This isn't a multi-month affair.  These aren't large armies. They are not much more than the immediately available troops, probably almost entirely mounted. The levies take longer to raise. Robert's known as a lightning mover and probably gathered troops along the way. The fact that he fights 3 'battles' in one day shows how small the forces are. I'd give this whole period, including marching both way, and feasting his captors and turning them, no more than 1 month, maybe less. Add another couple of weeks to march to Ashford again. Round it up to a full 8 weeks total and you have the end of June for Ashford I reckon.

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

Meanwhile, Ned is garnering his forces in Winterfell, calling his banners. We have an idea how long this took during Game/Clash with Robb and Bran, and that was occurring during summer.

And if this is not occurring in summer too, its likely occurring during the mildest part of winter.

I'd expect Ned called his banners by raven from the Eyrie. There will still be some levies coming in, but by the time he gets to Wnterfell I'd expect him to have almost all the  quickly raise-able troops already (like Robert, mostly the household troops and quickly raised ones, likely mostly mounted.) The remaining levies can come later. and He'll be picking up troops along the way south.

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

Ned does not depart Winterfell until late August 282 AC.

 

15. Ned joins with Jon Arryn’s host and they negotiate with Hoster Tully.  My guess is they arrive at Riverrun by mid-October 282 AC and did not leave until mid-December 282 AC. Meanwhile, Robert has fought Ashford and is marching to the Stoney Sept. This occurs from mid-October until the new year 283, including his time "hiding" at Stoney Sept.

 

16. Battle of the Bells - first battle of 283 AC - January. 

And here we rejoin. 

On 4/23/2020 at 8:03 AM, Lady Rhodes said:

17. It was after the Battle of the Bells that Aerys began taking the rebellion seriously and there were a lot of movements on the Targaryen side. He sent Barristan and Jonothor to rally remaining loyalist forces and Doran Martell sent forces as well to supplement force that Rhaegar was gathering. On the rebel side, Ned married Catelyn and Jon married Lysa and, if I recall correctly, they were together at least a fortnight. Between all of these movements and events, I am going with the Battle of the Trident not occurring until end of March 283 AC.

 

18. The chase to the Sack of King’s Landing begins! Between Tywin deciding to march and Ned’s forces heading down, I believe the Sack of King’s Landing occurs in April 283 AC, which brings us to the time frame given, lasting about a year.

I'd say we can push out the start and the end.
Seems to me that a much bigger timeframe is necessary between the Battle of the Bells and the Battle of the Trident than two months.
The scattered Targaryen forces have to be reformed and rebuilt.
Aerys has to sack JonCon and appoint a new hand. Hightower needs to be sent to find Rhaegar (was he sent when JonCon was appointed of when he was sacked?)
Hightower has to find Rhaegar, then Rhaegar needs to come back to KL.
Rhaegar has to have time to take commands, reorganise things, and prepare the new army before he is ready to march out.

 

Some people complain about this. Why do the rebels not move after their victory at the BotBs?
Well, the first answer is, thats irrelevant to some extent. The rebels never moved after the BotBs. Its Rhaegar who comes to them. So even after whatever time they had, they didn't feel ready, so there is no point asking why the didn't feel ready earlier.
For the second answer here are a few points:
 - this is where the smaller, hastily raised forces come in to play. These armies, probably on the order of a few thousand at most for each Paramount Lord at the BotBs are enough to win mobile battles against similar forces, and take small holdfasts and the like, but not enough for major siege warfare on the scale of taking the Red Keep. So the Rebels probably needed more time for their full forces and the logistics for them to be prepared before they could march on the Red Keep. 
 - Back to Logistics. Remember how many lords even withi their own territories sided with the King? It doesn't seem like there was a lot of time in that first period up to tBotB to do all the subduing necessary for secure communications and logistics. I'd suggest that a portion of the time between BotBs and The Trident was taken up with this.
 - Diplomacy. The Westlands are still uncommitted (and the Iron Isles). I would imagine that the rebels would want to be sorting out things with those two before moving out if the Riverlands and leaving their bases vulnerable. I ca also see Lord Tywin playing them along and staying uncommitted, until after Rahegar moved, forcing them to respond, and then had the opportunity to join the victor.
 

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Yet, we know they are in the Vale.

We know winter returned with a vengeance at the end of 281, beginning of 282, so did they just get stuck there?

There wasn't any haste at that time. Lyanna hadn't been taken yet.

 

[Lady Rhodes]

3 hours ago, corbon said:

Certainly you've put a very cramped trip for Rhaegar. His travels "ultimately" end up in the Riverlands, but it seems like timewise you've pretty much got him going there directly?

If we take the vision of Dany at the House of the Undying at face value, Thaegar was with Elia when Aegon was born, which is December/January. The reason I think it is cramped is that we have reason to believe he was with her during that month too.

Also, it is said that Lyanna disappeared close to the start of the year, so I think I was being generous with February. My initials timelines looked a lot like what you were suggesting but if Lyanna disappears near the start of the year and the battle of the bells is the first battle of the next year, I don’t see how it can be spread out any other way.

[frenin]

3 hours ago, corbon said:

Some people complain about this. Why do the rebels not move after their victory at the BotBs?
Well, the first answer is, thats irrelevant to some extent. The rebels never moved after the BotBs. Its Rhaegar who comes to them. So even after whatever time they had, they didn't feel ready, so there is no point asking why the didn't feel ready earlier.

The rebels were already marching when Rhaegar left King's Landing.

 

Those were the last words Rhaegar Targaryen ever spoke to him. Outside the gates an army had assembled, whilst another descended on the Trident. So the Prince of Dragonstone mounted up and donned his tall black helm, and rode forth to his doom.

 

4 hours ago, corbon said:

 - this is where the smaller, hastily raised forces come in to play. These armies, probably on the order of a few thousand at most for each Paramount Lord at the BotBs are enough to win mobile battles against similar forces, and take small holdfasts and the like, but not enough for major siege warfare on the scale of taking the Red Keep. So the Rebels probably needed more time for their full forces and the logistics for them to be prepared before they could march on the Red Keep. 

I fairly doubt it, taking Gulltown certainly doesn't seem a small affair, a sizable host must've been assembled for it and besides, even all together, at the Trident the rebels had fewer troops than the royalist, less than 40k, it's unlikely that they have amassed their forces if they are so few.

 

 

4 hours ago, corbon said:

 - Back to Logistics. Remember how many lords even withi their own territories sided with the King? It doesn't seem like there was a lot of time in that first period up to tBotB to do all the subduing necessary for secure communications and logistics. I'd suggest that a portion of the time between BotBs and The Trident was taken up with this.

It certainly seems so, old Jon, Ned and Robert seem to have left their lands without enemies in the rear, those who opposed them were quickly defeated and were either killed or switched sides, the only land that was not subdued was the Riverlands, but the Riverlords royalists, bar the  Goodbroks, seem to have been royalist till the bitter end and besides almost a yaer is a lot of time even for the Riverlands.

 

4 hours ago, corbon said:

 - Diplomacy. The Westlands are still uncommitted (and the Iron Isles). I would imagine that the rebels would want to be sorting out things with those two before moving out if the Riverlands and leaving their bases vulnerable. I ca also see Lord Tywin playing them along and staying uncommitted, until after Rahegar moved, forcing them to respond, and then had the opportunity to join the victor.

And how time does leave,  the rebels are not idiots, they are at Riverrun, it does not take too long to get to Casterly Rock, at the second month of trying they should know what Tywin and the rest are about.

 

 

34 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Also, it is said that Lyanna disappeared close to the start of the year, so I think I was being generous with February. My initials timelines looked a lot like what you were suggesting but if Lyanna disappears near the start of the year and the battle of the bells is the first battle of the next year, I don’t see how it can be spread out any other way.

No, it's said that Lyanna disappeared sometime around that year, it makes sense if it was at the started but that's never really said.

[Lady Rhodes]

14 minutes ago, frenin said:

The rebels were already marching when Rhaegar left King's Landing.

 

Those were the last words Rhaegar Targaryen ever spoke to him. Outside the gates an army had assembled, whilst another descended on the Trident. So the Prince of Dragonstone mounted up and donned his tall black helm, and rode forth to his doom.

 

I fairly doubt it, taking Gulltown certainly doesn't seem a small affair, a sizable host must've been assembled for it and besides, even all together, at the Trident the rebels had fewer troops than the royalist, less than 40k, it's unlikely that they have amassed their forces if they are so few.

 

 

It certainly seems so, old Jon, Ned and Robert seem to have left their lands without enemies in the rear, those who opposed them were quickly defeated and were either killed or switched sides, the only land that was not subdued was the Riverlands, but the Riverlords royalists, bar the  Goodbroks, seem to have been royalist till the bitter end and besides almost a yaer is a lot of time even for the Riverlands.

 

And how time does leave,  the rebels are not idiots, they are at Riverrun, it does not take too long to get to Casterly Rock, at the second month of trying they should know what Tywin and the rest are about.

 

 

No, it's said that Lyanna disappeared sometime around that year, it makes sense if it was at the started but that's never really said.

Perhaps this is the root of all the issues then. I have thought that there was a larger gap between the tourney and her disappearance but because I was putting her disappearance at the start of the year...will have to reread and come back!

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On 4/26/2020 at 4:27 AM, SFDanny said:

My assumption is that the attack on Elia and her escort takes place sometime in late 279 as she is being escorted to her wedding in the first month(s) of 280. That Hightower is with her makes sense given the fact that is exactly what Ser Barristan does as one of his first duties as the new Lord Commander when he escorts Cersei to court. That it takes a while for the campaign to wipeout the Kingswood bandits to start and to end them is to be expected. Jaime's role only tells us that it lasts into the year of 281. The Red Viper's tale tells us that Tyrion is a newborn child still at his wet nurse's breast when the eight year old Jaime is part of showing the Dornish guests his brother. That means Jaime's, and of course Cersei's, name day fall very early in the year and Tyrion is born very late in the previous year.

All that is to say, when Jaime is knighted by Ser Arthur in 281 it is very early in the year and the fact the campaign lasts likely most of the previous year and past Jaime's fifteenth name day isn't much of a surprise. We don't know long the campaigned lasted, but from Jaime's description it sounds as if the measures that Ser Arthur took to win the hearts and minds of the bandit's supporters took a while. This wasn't a blitzkrieg assault on them that easily destroyed the outlaws. That it took a half a year or more wouldn't surprise me. Exactly when Jaime joins Ser Arthur's efforts is unknown, but we do know he is knighted after his early name day in 281. So, my only quibble here really is that Jaime was fifteen by the time he rode out to fight against the bandits. His timing for his arrival in the campaign is unclear, but it could well be when he is fourteen in 280, and only that he becomes a knight after he turns fifteen. Or am I missing something here?

I don't think there is any doubt the crown prince and princess are in King's Landing when Aegon is conceived. Aemon tells us so. Because we know Aegon is likely born in the 12th month and assuming a full term pregnancy it places the conception in the third to fourth month. Or right about the end of the six month bed rest Elia is said to have been forced to endure after Rhaenys birth. We know that this also coincides with the range of time for the presentation of Rhaenys at court. I would guess that it is on this trip Aegon is conceived and Rhaegar sees the comet. How long they stay given their "welcome" by Aerys is an open question, but I'd say they leave as quickly as possible and as quickly as Rhaella will allow them to take her grandchild away. Perhaps I'm just substituting my own feelings onto the royal couple but I'd want my daughter out of immediate control of a mad king who thinks his granddaughter "smells dornish" as quickly as possible.

It could be possible that the attack took place as Elia was traveling to King's Landing for her wedding, although there are a few thoughts that come up with this scenario. Would Aerys, already paranoid and fearful that Tywin was planning to assassinate him, agree to part from any one of his Kingsguard, specifically the Lord Commander, for a large amount of time? Would Hightower, if the attack had taken place a year or more before the Brotherhood was defeated, not have eventually taken over command of the force against them? 

 

It is true that we do not know when Jaime joined the force against the outlaws, but we can conclude that Sumner Crakehall and his squires participated in the campaign at least for a few months, if we consider all that happened to Merrett. Some time passed after the end of the campaign and the tourney as well, at least slightly more than a month.

. "I earned my knighthood. Nothing was given to me. I won a tourney mêlée at thirteen, when I was yet a squire. At fifteen, I rode with Ser Arthur Dayne against the Kingswood Brotherhood, and he knighted me on the battlefield. It was that white cloak that soiled me, not the other way around. So spare me your envy. It was the gods who neglected to give you a cock, not me."

In this quote by Jaime, he tells Brienne about his accomplishments.  If he had joined the force against the Brotherhood at the age of fourteen, would that not have been the age he would have mentioned here?

In addition, if the encounter Elia and Hightower had with the Brotherhood had occurred as she was traveling to King's Landing for her wedding, that would mean that the campaign against the Brotherhood had lasted more than a year. The Kingswood is quite close to King's Landing, so while it would have taken Arthur Dayne some time to convince the smallfolk to trust him and bring their issues to the King, it is not the case that they were so far away that this distance would significantly increase the length of the campaign.

It is possible that the encounter occurred before Elia's marriage to Rhaegar, of course, but IMO it might be more likely to have occurred during her marriage. I had really hoped that the Kingswood Brotherhood would have been mentioned in 

[corbon]

9 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Also, it is said that Lyanna disappeared close to the start of the year, 

Yeah, I think this is an error and is the root of some problems.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

The rebels were already marching when Rhaegar left King's Landing.

 

Those were the last words Rhaegar Targaryen ever spoke to him. Outside the gates an army had assembled, whilst another descended on the Trident. So the Prince of Dragonstone mounted up and donned his tall black helm, and rode forth to his doom.

Is that the rebel army or another part of the Royalist army? Its not clear.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

I fairly doubt it, taking Gulltown certainly doesn't seem a small affair, a sizable host must've been assembled for it

Why? Its literally the first battle right at the start, almost certainly before any of the levies had had time to form yet. Its not a fortified city, though it has walls. There are no standing armies, no large military/police groups like the Gold Cloaks. It takes time for Militia's to form and arm and levies to be called up and trained.. There's literally no reason why it should be more than a few hundred men each side, if even that. 

What do we know (or have heard) about the Battle of Gulltown?
1. Lynn Corbrey fought at the gates vs Jon Arryn's men.
2. Robert was the first man to gain the wall, and slew Marc Grafton personally.
3. The Stepsisters knew of this by the time Ned arrived.
Thats it. Nothing says there were large forces involved - and where would they have come form? The Rebellion was only weeks old and there hadn't been time to raise large forces yet. Robert was moving as fast as possible to get home.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

and besides, even all together, at the Trident the rebels had fewer troops than the royalist, less than 40k, it's unlikely that they have amassed their forces if they are so few.

Right. 
So where are they?
Well, some no doubt are spread out holding supply lies etc, and key choke points like the Golden Tooth and the Gates of the Moon. Probably a significant number really. Some have been lost in battles already. Some are probably not counted as 'reliable' with loyalist leaning Lords, so disbanded. Some are probably defending places like Deepwood Motte, from potential Ironborn incursions, Gulltown etc etc.

9 hours ago, frenin said:

And how time does leave,  the rebels are not idiots, they are at Riverrun, it does not take too long to get to Casterly Rock, at the second month of trying they should know what Tywin and the rest are about.

Ahh well, I guess diplomacy is an instant thing in your world, not a back and forth negotiation.

 

[frenin]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Is that the rebel army or another part of the Royalist army? Its not clear.

I find incredibly hard to believe that the rebels let a royalist army get gathered and linked with the main royalist army in front of their faces.

 

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Why? Its literally the first battle right at the start, almost certainly before any of the levies had had time to form yet. Its not a fortified city, though it has walls. There are no standing armies, no large military/police groups like the Gold Cloaks. It takes time for Militia's to form and arm and levies to be called up and trained.. There's literally no reason why it should be more than a few hundred men each side, if even that. 

What do we know (or have heard) about the Battle of Gulltown?
1. Lynn Corbrey fought at the gates vs Jon Arryn's men.
2. Robert was the first man to gain the wall, and slew Marc Grafton personally.
3. The Stepsisters knew of this by the time Ned arrived.
Thats it. Nothing says there were large forces involved - and where would they have come form? The Rebellion was only weeks old and there hadn't been time to raise large forces yet. Robert was moving as fast as possible to get home.

Because Gulltown, as any proper city in Westeros, is not weak and by taking them, the rebels should heavily outnumber the royalists.

For a thousand years, Winterfell and the Eyrie contested for the rule of the Three Sisters. The Worthless War, some dubbed it. Time and time again the fighting seemed at an end, only to flare up once more a generation later. The islands changed hands more than a dozen times. Thrice the Northmen landed on the Fingers. The Arryns sent a fleet up the White Knife to burn the Wolf’s Den, and the Starks replied by attacking Gulltown and burning hundreds of ships in their wroth when the city walls proved too strong for them.

 

Martin has also said that the power of the Vale is far more concentrated than the North and Robb lasted less than a month to gather 20k swords. There is really no reason that a few weeks of preparations happen, while a few skirmishes were being fought in the Vale. The royalist would try to defend Gulltown since Ned and Robert had to get out of the Vale to call their banners and the rebels would have to get ready to take the city. 1000 guys can't take any city.

 

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Right. 
So where are they?
Well, some no doubt are spread out holding supply lies etc, and key choke points like the Golden Tooth and the Gates of the Moon. Probably a significant number really. Some have been lost in battles already. Some are probably not counted as 'reliable' with loyalist leaning Lords, so disbanded. Some are probably defending places like Deepwood Motte, from potential Ironborn incursions, Gulltown etc etc.

To get to the Gates of the Moon, they have to pass the bloody gates first and it doesn't take that many people to properly defend it, it's likely that by the time of the trident, they are either lost or unreliable. 

 

 

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Ahh well, I guess diplomacy is an instant thing in your world, not a back and forth negotiation.

I guess you're right that's the thing in my world but since Tywin straight up ignored the rebels and the royalists i find hard to believe how long a one sided negotiation can last.