Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Fragile Bird

Taking it to the Streets - Covid-19 #12

Recommended Posts

I see there's been a "primary outcome of death" in trials for chloriquine.

I'm expecting Trump and Fox News will just ignore it and not report it, but that's a massive black eye for all their shameless touting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It's not the best news, since the statewide CFR based on 13.9% of ~19,000,000 infected is 0.8% which is more than double the 0.3-0.37% being talked about a little while back. The NYC data is better looking with CFR coming in at exactly 0.3% (Edit: Googling stats about NYC has me a little confused, one stat said metro NY is 18M, but another bit of information says 64% of NYS lives in metro NYC which is 12M, and City population is 40% (7.7M) and NYC deaths are said to be 11K, so I am not sure what the 21% infected figure represents in terms of population coverage the 0.3% CFR is based on the best case scenario of 11K deahts spread over 18M people, but that could be  / is likely to be wrong).

I couldn't find where anyone else has answered this yet, so forgive me if I'm repeating someone.

But the difference between the 18 million and the 12 million is that the 18 million is for the entire "Metropolitan Statistical Area", which includes about half of New Jersey, a third of Connecticut, and even one county in northeastern Pennsylvania. The 12 million is the population of the part of that area which is within the boundaries of the state of New York. 

Hopes this helps with your analysis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really don't know why everyone is so concerned with people trying out Trump's disinfectant injection theory.  It's best to herd those people out now.  It's probably too late to stop them from reproducing, but at least it may prevent them from getting into their late 70s which apparently makes them eligible to be president.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

That assumes that nobody would have died with the correct response. I dont want to defend him, but blaming him for every single death is clearly nonsense. 

The experiences of other countries shows that no Western nation was entirely prepared for this (and even the ones doing best, like New Zealand, seems more a combination of luck and isolation). And some issues, like the CDC testing lab getting contaminated are out of the President's hands entirely. So, no, we can't blame every death on Trump.

However, it is clear that many, many deaths are Trump's fault. Pretty much no other President would have:

  • Wasted all of January and February refusing to build up stockpiles of necessary medical equipment
  • Downplayed the seriousness of the situation to the point that other stakeholders were actively encouraged to not do anything
  • Refused to use the WHO's tests; especially once it was clear the CDC was having problems
  • Refused to implement a national lockdown
  • Seized necessary medical equipment from states
  • Refused to use the Defense Production Act to shore up gaps in supply chains
  • Refused to implement a national plan to coordinate supply chains
  • Refused to implement a national testing plan
  • Actively encouraged protests against state lockdowns
  • Pushed untested/dangerous treatment options that directly led to additional deaths
  • Forced public health officials to waste huge amounts of time desperately trying to stop a plan to "flood" NY/NJ with hydrochloroquine for whoever wants it: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/internal-documents-reveal-team-trumps-chloroquine-master-plan

 

Other Presidents wouldn't have been perfect on those issues, they'd definitely run into issues outside their control. But let's not fool ourselves too much either, the US President has a lot of power and Trump has grossly misused his. I don't know the exact number of deaths that can be directly blamed on him, but it's a lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Fez said:

The experiences of other countries shows that no Western nation was entirely prepared for this (and even the ones doing best, like New Zealand, seems more a combination of luck and isolation). And some issues, like the CDC testing lab getting contaminated are out of the President's hands entirely. So, no, we can't blame every death on Trump.

However, it is clear that many, many deaths are Trump's fault. Pretty much no other President would have:

  • Wasted all of January and February refusing to build up stockpiles of necessary medical equipment
  • Downplayed the seriousness of the situation to the point that other stakeholders were actively encouraged to not do anything
  • Refused to use the WHO's tests; especially once it was clear the CDC was having problems
  • Refused to implement a national lockdown
  • Seized necessary medical equipment from states
  • Refused to use the Defense Production Act to shore up gaps in supply chains
  • Refused to implement a national plan to coordinate supply chains
  • Refused to implement a national testing plan
  • Actively encouraged protests against state lockdowns
  • Pushed untested/dangerous treatment options that directly led to additional deaths
  • Forced public health officials to waste huge amounts of time desperately trying to stop a plan to "flood" NY/NJ with hydrochloroquine for whoever wants it: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/internal-documents-reveal-team-trumps-chloroquine-master-plan

 

Other Presidents wouldn't have been perfect on those issues, they'd definitely run into issues outside their control. But let's not fool ourselves too much either, the US President has a lot of power and Trump has grossly misused his. I don't know the exact number of deaths that can be directly blamed on him, but it's a lot.

But we agree it's not every single one as Bonnot OG stated. 

Indeed when you look at US population compared to Spain, France, UK and Italy it could have been so much worse. And this is how he will sell it 'we have 5 times the population of those countries and only 2/3 times as many deaths'. And that will be enough for his base.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Fez said:

Refused to implement a national lockdown

Agree witheverything in the list, but but I don't think any other President could have done that particular item, because it's not legal for the President to order anything like that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Week said:

And Dijon mustard on a hot dog. Which is a self-own by cuck-servatives because Dijon is the best mustard. It is known.

I bet he even used a vegan tofu dog. And it was probably made in Canada!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ran said:

Agree witheverything in the list, but but I don't think any other President could have done that particular item, because it's not legal for the President to order anything like that.

He didnt have to order it legally. He can and should have gone up and said that there needs to be a lockdown and worked with the governors. And locked down all federal agencies that are not essential. 

Again, there is a lot of soft power leaders have that doesnt require legal authority to use, and he didnt. He didnt implement a plan. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

He didnt have to order it legally. He can and should have gone up and said that there needs to be a lockdown and worked with the governors. And locked down all federal agencies that are not essential. 

Again, there is a lot of soft power leaders have that doesnt require legal authority to use, and he didnt. He didnt implement a plan. 

And is using his soft power to work against lock downs.

Also, Fez, for your list, didn't he fire the Pandemic Response Team prior to all of this?  So it gorked the US response, and probably some of the world response.  And didn't he also release the guy who was coordinating the effort to find a vaccine in the us too?  Because he wasn't pushing his chloroquine "cure."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Don't ever say The Death Cultists aren't really trying to kill Us:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/internal-documents-reveal-team-trumps-chloroquine-master-plan

“Really Want to Flood NY and NJ”: Internal Documents Reveal Team Trump’s Chloroquine Master PlanQuote:

Quote

 

WH call. Really want to flood Ny and NJ with treatment courses. Hospitals have it. Sick out patients don’t. And can’t get. So go through distribution channels as we discussed. If we have 29 million perhaps send a few million ASAP? WH wants follow up in AM.

We can get a lot more of this. Right Bob? Millions per week?

 

Yet another Dem elected political official who has done and continues her best to deal productively with this mess:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/coronavirus-new-mexico.html

BTW, before becoming governor, she was a health professional, showing yet again that education and professional expertise make all the difference between life and death. The same with the mayor of San Francisco, who listened to her professionals, and the governor of Washington, who did the same too.

As for bushwa vs death cult leader as to the worst -- in the factoring you all left out how many have been killed in so many ways by ICE and the deportation actions and incarceration.  New Mexico is deeply concerned that in their southern region, where the wall is supposedly continuing to be built, this is going to spread the virus throughout that area too.

Edited by Zorral

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

And is using his soft power to work against lock downs.

Also, Fez, for your list, didn't he fire the Pandemic Response Team prior to all of this?  So it gorked the US response, and probably some of the world response.  And didn't he also release the guy who was coordinating the effort to find a vaccine in the us too?  Because he wasn't pushing his chloroquine "cure."

Yep. That's another couple faults on Trump.

It's possible some other Republican Presidents would have cut the response funding back in 2018 as well. Republicans are assholes who don't understand the value of preventative action; see the ones who keep trying to cut earthquake and volcano monitoring funding. So maybe that one isn't a uniquely Trump fuck-up the way the others are; but it's definitely still a fuck-up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

But we agree it's not every single one as Bonnot OG stated. 

Indeed when you look at US population compared to Spain, France, UK and Italy it could have been so much worse. And this is how he will sell it 'we have 5 times the population of those countries and only 2/3 times as many deaths'. And that will be enough for his base.

True, but we don't know that is how the stats will end up. You're correct based on the overall data, but the US is now steadily tracking at around 2,000-2,500 fatalities per day, compared to 400-500 in Italy. There's your 5x multiplier. Obviously the Lombardia situation skews Italy's earlier stats, but NY might end up having a similar effect.

On the subject of Italy, I hope we have moved past the point of accusations (not on this Board - just generally) that they have performed particularly badly in terms of government and health response. You could argue that they actually performed pretty well considering they didn't have the opportunity to learn from the responses of other Western countries and have a slightly older population, especially in the hard-hit North. 

Edited by Paxter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

But we agree it's not every single one as Bonnot OG stated. 

Indeed when you look at US population compared to Spain, France, UK and Italy it could have been so much worse. And this is how he will sell it 'we have 5 times the population of those countries and only 2/3 times as many deaths'. And that will be enough for his base.

US population: 328.2 M

Italy 60.3 + France 67 + Spain 46.7 + Germany 82.8 + UK 66.4 + Norway 5.3 = 328.5 M

Deaths US (yesterday) - 50,236

Deaths Italy 25,549 + France 21,856 + Spain 22,157 + Germany 5,575 + UK 18,738 + Norway 194 = 94,069

So far half as many deaths at same population level. But that's like taking 4 New York States into account. Lets do it differently. And it's not over yet.

Lets take some countries on the far side of Europe, the way California and other states are on the far side, and some countries the size of New York and New Jersey (19.45 and 8.88 respectively), and smaller countries like smaller states.

Romania 19.5 M + Portugal 10.2 + Italy 60.3 + Switzerland 8.5 + Poland 38.3 + Austria 8.8 + Germany 82.8 + Denmark 5.8 + Finland 5.5 + Slovakia 5.4 + Norway 5.3 + Ireland 4.9 + Croatia 4.1 + Slovenia 2 + Greece 10.7 + Czechia 10.6 + Belgium 11.5 + Netherlands 17.1 + Sweden 10.3 + Serbia 6.9 = 328.5 M

Deaths from the above: Rom 545 + Port 820 + Italy 25,549 + Swit 1,549 + Pol 454 + Aust 522 + Germ 5,575 + Den 394 + Fin 172 + Slov 15 + Nor 194 + Ire 794 + Croa 50 + Slov 79 + Gr 125 + Cz 210 + Belg 6,490 + Neth 4,177 + Swe 2,021 + Serb 139 = 49,874

Oh, look, fewer deaths when you use smaller countries like smaller US states. And I didn't even use the really small countries. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

US population: 328.2 M

Italy 60.3 + France 67 + Spain 46.7 + Germany 82.8 + UK 66.4 + Norway 5.3 = 328.5 M

Deaths US (yesterday) - 50,236

Deaths Italy 25,549 + France 21,856 + Spain 22,157 + Germany 5,575 + UK 18,738 + Norway 194 = 94,069

So far half as many deaths at same population level. But that's like taking 4 New York States into account. Lets do it differently. And it's not over yet.

Lets take some countries on the far side of Europe, the way California and other states are on the far side, and some countries the size of New York and New Jersey (19.45 and 8.88 respectively), and smaller countries like smaller states.

Romania 19.5 M + Portugal 10.2 + Italy 60.3 + Switzerland 8.5 + Poland 38.3 + Austria 8.8 + Germany 82.8 + Denmark 5.8 + Finland 5.5 + Slovakia 5.4 + Norway 5.3 + Ireland 4.9 + Croatia 4.1 + Slovenia 2 + Greece 10.7 + Czechia 10.6 + Belgium 11.5 + Netherlands 17.1 + Sweden 10.3 + Serbia 6.9 = 328.5 M

Deaths from the above: Rom 545 + Port 820 + Italy 25,549 + Swit 1,549 + Pol 454 + Aust 522 + Germ 5,575 + Den 394 + Fin 172 + Slov 15 + Nor 194 + Ire 794 + Croa 50 + Slov 79 + Gr 125 + Cz 210 + Belg 6,490 + Neth 4,177 + Swe 2,021 + Serb 139 = 49,874

Oh, look, fewer deaths when you use smaller countries like smaller US states. And I didn't even use the really small countries. 

Haha I love it FB.

But I agree with BFC in the sense that you may not be able to sell this analysis to Trump's base...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

US population: 328.2 M

Italy 60.3 + France 67 + Spain 46.7 + Germany 82.8 + UK 66.4 + Norway 5.3 = 328.5 M

Deaths US (yesterday) - 50,236

Deaths Italy 25,549 + France 21,856 + Spain 22,157 + Germany 5,575 + UK 18,738 + Norway 194 = 94,069

So far half as many deaths at same population level. But that's like taking 4 New York States into account. Lets do it differently. And it's not over yet.

Lets take some countries on the far side of Europe, the way California and other states are on the far side, and some countries the size of New York and New Jersey (19.45 and 8.88 respectively), and smaller countries like smaller states.

Romania 19.5 M + Portugal 10.2 + Italy 60.3 + Switzerland 8.5 + Poland 38.3 + Austria 8.8 + Germany 82.8 + Denmark 5.8 + Finland 5.5 + Slovakia 5.4 + Norway 5.3 + Ireland 4.9 + Croatia 4.1 + Slovenia 2 + Greece 10.7 + Czechia 10.6 + Belgium 11.5 + Netherlands 17.1 + Sweden 10.3 + Serbia 6.9 = 328.5 M

Deaths from the above: Rom 545 + Port 820 + Italy 25,549 + Swit 1,549 + Pol 454 + Aust 522 + Germ 5,575 + Den 394 + Fin 172 + Slov 15 + Nor 194 + Ire 794 + Croa 50 + Slov 79 + Gr 125 + Cz 210 + Belg 6,490 + Neth 4,177 + Swe 2,021 + Serb 139 = 49,874

Oh, look, fewer deaths when you use smaller countries like smaller US states. And I didn't even use the really small countries. 

Yeah, but he wont be talking to people who can count. Some hick from Alabama is going to stop reading after the first sentence. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's very likely that the per capita death rate in the UK will be higher than the US, while Germany will almost assuredly be lower.  So if you're trying to make an argument about "Country X didn't mismanage things, look at country Y!", then you'll probably have options whichever side of the argument you fall on.  Anyone who is really paying attention can see that Trump has totally bungled the COVID response, and whether the UK or Brazil may be bungling it even worse is not terribly relevant. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Yeah, but he wont be talking to people who can count. Some hick from Alabama is going to stop reading after the first sentence. 

It will not be read -- it will be relayed via Fox and Friends, OANN, etc. etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Week said:

And Dijon mustard on a hot dog. Which is a self-own by cuck-servatives because Dijon is the best mustard. It is known.

Let's move away from the ephemera of Covid-19 discussions and concentrate on the big issues, such as this monumentally wrong statement. Now, I will grant you that Dijon is OK, it's certainly better than American or German mustards, which are characterised by not having any mustardiness about them at all, but the only correct answer is English mustard. I await your retraction and apology.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Hereward said:

Let's move away from the ephemera of Covid-19 discussions and concentrate on the big issues, such as this monumentally wrong statement. Now, I will grant you that Dijon is OK, it's certainly better than American or German mustards, which are characterised by not having any mustardiness about them at all, but the only correct answer is English mustard. I await your retraction and apology.

On a hotdog though? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

If you must eat hotdogs, then I suppose... no, English mustard, no excuses.

Edited by Hereward

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...