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Fragile Bird

Taking it to the Streets - Covid-19 #12

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1 minute ago, DanteGabriel said:

I just had to sit down for a minute because George W. Bush, whom I naively thought would be the dumbest and worst President of my lifetime, was at least still a person who read books, was motivated to prevent pandemics, and consulted with experts. It's amazing how quickly the bottom dropped out of the Republican Party.

Another one he did that gets like no credit because hey, they're black people is what he did to fight the AIDS epidemic in Africa. It's pretty astounding, probably because he got almost no news for it from either side. But it was a genuinely brilliant thing based entirely on science and data, and it saved millions of lives. The program is called PEPFAR, and it has been credited with saving over 17 million lives so far:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President's_Emergency_Plan_for_AIDS_Relief

It's not super great that he threw in that abstinence education (which was nixed in 2008), but it was otherwise a gold standard as far as treatment and prevention goes. 

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For me, the best approach right now is to significantly limit the spread of infection to give time for credible therapeutics and vaccines to be developed and scaled up to commercial production. A policy of herd immunity via infection ASAP with or without a health system overload seems like bad policy right now. Right now there are good prospects for an effective vaccine to get most countries to herd immunity the safe way with fewer deaths and sever illnesses. If there is widespread failure of vaccines currently in development to mount an effective immune response, THEN a transition to managed spread is likely to become the only viable approach to reaching herd immunity and long term manageability of the ongoing (year in year out) progress of the disease.

I entirely disagree with claims from some in the medical community saying a lockdown is pointless because you are only delaying the inevitable, not preventing it. Bying time, at this point in the evolution of the disease and treatment / prevention options is a totally valid and likely life-saving approach.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

It's a really bad one to gauge, say, people who are staying at home. 

Yes, but I’m thinking a grocery store is perhaps a better gauge than other places.   If you go out at all, you’re getting food, right? 
 


 

 

Edited by Whitestripe
Clarity

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1 minute ago, Whitestripe said:

Yes, but I’m thinking a grocery store is perhaps a better gauge than other places.   If you go out at all, you’re getting food, right?  

Maybe? My community is doing specific drivers to do delivery for seniors and other folks who are in need. And there are a whole lot of seniors  who aren't going out because they're in retirement homes and the like. Also doesn't count things like kids, will emphasize people with more flexible schedules...it's not great. 

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9 minutes ago, Whitestripe said:

Yes, but I’m thinking a grocery store is perhaps a better gauge than other places.   If you go out at all, you’re getting food, right? 
 


 

 

It's an excellent gauge of the people who go grocery shopping, which let's face it is still mostly adult women between 25 and 60 (made up age range by me, though the female bit is still pretty right). Sure, adult women between 25 and 60 often live with adult men between 25 and 60 and also mingle a lot with family and friends in the age ranges younger and older than that. But still, that's just potential exposure to in contact positives from the grocery store survey not confirmed infection.

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58 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

I just had to sit down for a minute because George W. Bush, whom I naively thought would be the dumbest and worst President of my lifetime, was at least still a person who read books, was motivated to prevent pandemics, and consulted with experts. It's amazing how quickly the bottom dropped out of the Republican Party.

I think about this all the time.  Also the extent to which current Republicans act like Bush wasn’t even a Republican, but a globalist RINO who they never really liked in the first place.  

It’s not just that they managed to produce an even bigger turd, but that that turd took over the party and they are all too scared to even attempt to flush it.

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21 minutes ago, S John said:

I think about this all the time.  Also the extent to which current Republicans act like Bush wasn’t even a Republican, but a globalist RINO who they never really liked in the first place.  

It’s not just that they managed to produce an even bigger turd, but that that turd took over the party and they are all too scared to even attempt to flush it.

They aren't too scared. They're getting what they want. 

They got the biggest tax break to the wealthy in a hundred years. They got massive decreased regulation. They got two SCOTUS that are heavily pro-corporation. They got a full quarter of the judges they wanted in federal courts for a lifetime. They got cuts to the EPA, to HHS, to all medical systems around - meaning tons of private enterprise. All this other bullshit doesn't matter to them in the least. As far as most conservatives go, Trump is one of the most successful presidents in the history of the nation for their interests. The few quibbles are probably a higher debt and immigration declines (because they make more money off of cheap labor) but otherwise? It's been a gold mine for them. 

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1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

They aren't too scared. They're getting what they want. 

They got the biggest tax break to the wealthy in a hundred years. They got massive decreased regulation. They got two SCOTUS that are heavily pro-corporation. They got a full quarter of the judges they wanted in federal courts for a lifetime. They got cuts to the EPA, to HHS, to all medical systems around - meaning tons of private enterprise. All this other bullshit doesn't matter to them in the least. As far as most conservatives go, Trump is one of the most successful presidents in the history of the nation for their interests. The few quibbles are probably a higher debt and immigration declines (because they make more money off of cheap labor) but otherwise? It's been a gold mine for them. 

They could have had all of that with Cruz, or Rubio, or Jeb. They could have had all of that and likely kept  the house in 2018. But no, they had to have their racism out front too.  That's the only reason I can think they didn't actually try to stop Trump.

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3 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

They could have had all of that with Cruz, or Rubio, or Jeb. They could have had all of that and likely kept  the house in 2018. But no, they had to have their racism out front too.  That's the only reason I can think they didn't actually try to stop Trump.

They kind of tried, but the only reason they tried was because they thought he couldn't and wouldn't win. 

But he won. So they don't care, because he won. Cruz, Rubio, Jeb - none of them won. And honestly, Trump is a lot better in a lot of ways - he puts so much bullshit and drama out that some of the truly evil shit that they do gets to go through happily. 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

They kind of tried, but the only reason they tried was because they thought he couldn't and wouldn't win. 

But he won. So they don't care, because he won. Cruz, Rubio, Jeb - none of them won. And honestly, Trump is a lot better in a lot of ways - he puts so much bullshit and drama out that some of the truly evil shit that they do gets to go through happily. 

Every Republican president ends up being a RINO or not conservative enough if they don't replace themselves with another Republican president. That's why Reagan is so revered, Reagan --> Prez. Bush snr ergo everyting about the Reagan presidency was perfect, it's just weak arsed Bush Snr who shat, the bed esp by not pushing all the way to Baghdad in GW I.

Trump may win a second term, but if another Republican doesn't win a 3rd consecutive term it will bring all of Trump's failings to the fore and he will be branded not conservative enough, just like the rest of them not named Reagan. And of course it would mean a failure on his part to destroy the deep state that keeps putting socialists like Obama and Clinton in power. The next Democrat president should appoint Hillary Clinton as Health Czar in charge of pandemic preparedness for the lolz... to bring my post back on topic...somewhat.

Also on topic. We are now down to 19 active confirmed cases. We still have >300 active probable cases, but cases confirmed by a positive PCR test that have not been resolved is down to 19. We are also doing more testing per day now than ever, so we are less likely to miss new infection than when we were at our peak rate of infection. Of course increasing testing with falling incidence is necessary to maintain a similar confidence of finding 95% of currently undiagnosed cases, (the fewer needles in the haystack, the harder you have to look to find them).

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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46 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

They kind of tried, but the only reason they tried was because they thought he couldn't and wouldn't win. 

But he won. So they don't care, because he won. Cruz, Rubio, Jeb - none of them won. And honestly, Trump is a lot better in a lot of ways - he puts so much bullshit and drama out that some of the truly evil shit that they do gets to go through happily. 

Fuck me, I’d STILL take Trump over fucking Huckabee

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1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

They kind of tried, but the only reason they tried was because they thought he couldn't and wouldn't win. 

But he won. So they don't care, because he won. Cruz, Rubio, Jeb - none of them won. And honestly, Trump is a lot better in a lot of ways - he puts so much bullshit and drama out that some of the truly evil shit that they do gets to go through happily. 

The NYT article on Bush and the origins of social distancing was great, and I did also know a bit about PEPFAR. It's funny how perspective and the nastiness that is Trump now serves to bring up GWB's reputation. GWB was the object of so much hatred (lots deserved) but no one back then could have imagined there'd be someone much worse coming along. Still, the Presidency is not the problem, it's the whole rightward shift of the Republican oligarchy. Huge inequality, and small/ineffective goverment is exactly what they want.

To bring this back a bit on topic, it's made it into the COVID-19 legislation too. Republicans will point to the $1200 checks as a sign of socialism creeping in, but the fact that corporations and "small" businesses got the lions' share of the money - and that McConnell is hoping to bankrupt the states and all their services, which universally help the poor - shows how much they're willing to push it.

It should be obvious from the huge amount of cases and deaths that US exceptionalism is a myth - the outcomes in almost all areas (economic, social, healthcare) have all been much worse than any other developed country. But I'm afraid most Americans won't see it that way.

I actually dearly hope that it's not an American company that finds the first effective antiviral or vaccine, because you just know they're going to jack up the prices and screw everyone over for it.

 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

That people will still vote for this guy is scary. Bleach, ffs!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177

People don't get that Trump has mind of a spoiled 4 yo. If you go to a briefing with him you need to explain things like you are treating with a spoiled 4 yo. You need to avoid difficult topics and provide clear and safe advice. For example if you explain that bleach kills the virus in surfaces, a 4 yo might think that he stumbled on the disease's cure. If you explain that sunlight vitamin D might have a role in the progression of the disease, a 4 yo might think that it's a good idea to irradiate the lungs with UV light.

These are difficult concepts not suitable for 4 yo children! 

I'd suggest to make sure that a good number of child care workers are part of the WH staff. 

Edited by rotting sea cow

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

People don't get that Trump has mind of a spoiled 4 yo.

That’s a little generous, per Dan Drezner’s The Toddler in Chief.

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For anyone looking for a bit of animal-based respite from the horror of everything, this twitter account is mana from Heaven.

 

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And another...

So relaxing just having this on in the background.

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4 hours ago, Jeor said:

It's funny how perspective and the GWB was the object of so much hatred (lots deserved) but no one back then could have imagined there'd be someone much worse coming along.

Is Trump actually worse than Bush? Honest question, not being rhetorical. Trump is definitely terrible, but Bush is a mass murderer and torturer (amongst many other awful things) on a scale that Trump has yet to match. Trump certainly still has time to do even worse things, and I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of his time in office (whenever that may be) he's unquestionably taken the title, I'm just not sure he's there yet.

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