How would Balon Greyjoy have taken the North - if he still would've proceeded with the plan at all - during the war of the five kings if Moat Cailin was the fully maintained fortress it once was?

[Rossze]

Would he have even attempted to take the North? If so, what alternate strategy would he employ?

[Bernie Mac]

Why would Robb leave Moat Cailin with its full garrison but not Wintefell?

[Free Northman Reborn]

Balon would have achieved no more than countless Ironborn kings before. There were times when large parts of the North were ruled by the Ironborn for generations. In the end they were always thrown out again, even if it took decades.

[M.Alhazred]

On 4/24/2020 at 9:40 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Balon would have achieved no more than countless Ironborn kings before. There were times when large parts of the North were ruled by the Ironborn for generations. In the end they were always thrown out again, even if it took decades.

This.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

On 4/24/2020 at 10:12 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Why would Robb leave Moat Cailin with its full garrison but not Wintefell?

Because Moat Cailin is guarding the entire North. He literally does that in the books. He gives Moat Cailin a strong garrison for its condition and state of (de)construction.

[Bernie Mac]

3 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Because Moat Cailin is guarding the entire North. He literally does that in the books. He gives Moat Cailin a strong garrison for its condition and state of (de)construction.

He left men there, but lets not exaggerate and call it a strong garrison.

"I'd leave a small force here to hold Moat Cailin, archers mostly, and march the rest down the causeway,"

Robb knew that small force was still very vulnerable, it is one of the reasons he appoints a cautious man like Roose instead of a more aggressive leader in the Greatjon

"Her son considered that for a moment. "The eastern host will be all that stands between Lord Tywin and Winterfell," he said thoughtfully. "Well, them and whatever few bowmen I leave here at the Moat. So I don't want someone fearless, do I?"

 

So back to my original question, why would he leave Moat Cailin with a full garrison when he did not do the same for Winterfell?

[BlackLightning]

It would've been hard. But I don't think Balon was trying to take the North and rule it. Sure, he claimed dominion over the North but he seemed to prefer raiding and pillaging the North. Paying the iron price for fresh thralls, salt-wives and other precious goods like jewelry and finery.

On 4/24/2020 at 10:12 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Why would Robb leave Moat Cailin with its full garrison but not Wintefell?

BINGO!

It wasn't a full garrison but....still...BINGO!!!

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

He left men there, but lets not exaggerate and call it a strong garrison.

"I'd leave a small force here to hold Moat Cailin, archers mostly, and march the rest down the causeway,"

Robb knew that small force was still very vulnerable, it is one of the reasons he appoints a cautious man like Roose instead of a more aggressive leader in the Greatjon

"Her son considered that for a moment. "The eastern host will be all that stands between Lord Tywin and Winterfell," he said thoughtfully. "Well, them and whatever few bowmen I leave here at the Moat. So I don't want someone fearless, do I?"

So back to my original question, why would he leave Moat Cailin with a full garrison when he did not do the same for Winterfell?

I'm so grateful you posted that excerpt.

I was just in the "Aegon as King" thread and it just goes so far as highlight the difference between Robb and Aegon. Robb was something of a military genius and he still died tragically with his army beaten and his home destroyed. Aegon is nowhere near as able and experienced as Robb but certain fans and readers on Reddit think that Aegon is going to be some miracle worker.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 5/30/2020 at 11:31 PM, Bernie Mac said:

He left men there, but lets not exaggerate and call it a strong garrison.

"I'd leave a small force here to hold Moat Cailin, archers mostly, and march the rest down the causeway,"

Robb knew that small force was still very vulnerable, it is one of the reasons he appoints a cautious man like Roose instead of a more aggressive leader in the Greatjon

"Her son considered that for a moment. "The eastern host will be all that stands between Lord Tywin and Winterfell," he said thoughtfully. "Well, them and whatever few bowmen I leave here at the Moat. So I don't want someone fearless, do I?"

 

So back to my original question, why would he leave Moat Cailin with a full garrison when he did not do the same for Winterfell?

 

We gonna ignore Ned here?

Once you are home, send word to Helman Tallhart and Galbart Glover under my seal. They are to raise a hundred bowmen each and fortify Moat Cailin. Two hundred determined archers can hold the Neck against an army. 

No idea if Robb had that many men or what not but Ned clearly thought 200 was enough in the same book, and he's fairly well versed at warfare. As to WF, honestly no idea. Huge plot hole between that and Rodrik not leaving a decent size garrison in ASOS (or whatever book)

[rotting sea cow]

On 4/25/2020 at 4:12 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Why would Robb leave Moat Cailin with its full garrison but not Wintefell?

Winterfell was adequately garrisoned. It was Ser Rodrik Cassel who took to almost the last man to fight off the ironborn.

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Winterfell was adequately garrisoned. It was Ser Rodrik Cassel who took to almost the last man to fight off the ironborn.

Yes, not to mention that nobody expected Theon to sneak in. But to be sure, Winterfell never expected an attack and, being a large castle, was pretty much empty after both Robb and Ned left had left, taking a lot of men with them.

[Roswell]

The Ironborn plan was to arrive by sea.  They are not attacking from the Riverlands.  Their longships allow them to sail to the coast and attack from the sea.  Moat Cailin will not stop an attack from ships.

[frenin]

9 hours ago, Roswell said:

The Ironborn plan was to arrive by sea.  They are not attacking from the Riverlands.  Their longships allow them to sail to the coast and attack from the sea.  Moat Cailin will not stop an attack from ships.

But it will mean that the Northmen can just go home and kick them out.

[Bernie Mac]

On 6/3/2020 at 10:27 AM, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

We gonna ignore Ned here?

Once you are home, send word to Helman Tallhart and Galbart Glover under my seal. They are to raise a hundred bowmen each and fortify Moat Cailin. Two hundred determined archers can hold the Neck against an army. 

 

No, but my reading of that is the army Ned was talking about was the type Gregor was using to raid the Riverlands rather than the type that Tywin and Jaime had in the Riverlands.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Ned would have assumed that 200 men would be enough to hold Moat Cailin against a significant force.

 

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No idea if Robb had that many men or what not but Ned clearly thought 200 was enough in the same book, and he's fairly well versed at warfare.

Ned certainly is. It may also be that those 200 archers could hold off for a limited amount of time until it was supported by the rest of the North. That 200 was enough to delay, rather than completely hold out.

 

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As to WF, honestly no idea. Huge plot hole between that and Rodrik not leaving a decent size garrison in ASOS (or whatever book)

I don't think it a plot hole. Robb was 15 and was clearly not expecting that the Baratheons of Kings Landing, his father's allies, would kill his father or that they would not back down. Nor did he know how long he would be gone for. This is actually not just a 15 year old Robb issue, but an issue for many of the Northern lords who left their homes vulnerable and not enough men for their harvests.

Rodrik did not have a decent sized garrison to begin with, his army was raised from the holdfasts in the Winterfell lands and by the description of them and how ineffective they were against Ramsay I don't think they were trained but mostly a scrape together of any numbers to scare the Ironborn away.

 

On 6/3/2020 at 10:33 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Winterfell was adequately garrisoned. It was Ser Rodrik Cassel who took to almost the last man to fight off the ironborn.

No, it was not. Robb left Winterfell with nothing but untrained teenagers and Luwin to lead. In matter of fact it was Cat who sent Rodrik back.

 

 He might be the lord in Winterfell while his brother and father were gone, but he was still Bran the Broken. He could not even get off his own horse, except to fall.

When the distant cheers had faded to silence and the yard was empty at last, Winterfell seemed deserted and dead. Bran looked around at the faces of those who remained, women and children and old men … and Hodor. The huge stableboy had a lost and frightened look to his face. "Hodor?" he said sadly.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

"They don't fight very well," Bran said dubiously. He scratched Summer idly behind the ears as the direwolf tore at a haunch of meat. Bones crunched between his teeth.

"For a certainty," Maester Luwin agreed with a deep sigh. The maester was peering through his big Myrish lens tube, measuring shadows and noting the position of the comet that hung low in the morning sky. "Yet given time … Ser Rodrik has the truth of it, we need men to walk the walls. Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around. Many will not come back to us, and we must needs find the men to take their places."

Bran stared resentfully at the sweating boys below. "If I still had my legs, I could beat them all."

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less.

Bran watched them from the balcony of Maester Luwin's turret, listening to them grunt and strain and curse as they swung their staves and wooden swords. The yard was alive to the clack of wood on wood, punctuated all too often by thwacks and yowls of pain when a blow struck leather or flesh. Ser Rodrik strode among the boys, face reddening beneath his white whiskers, muttering at them one and all. Bran had never seen the old knight look so fierce. "No," he kept saying. "No. No. No."

 

Robb left Winterfell incredibly vulnerable to attack, from both domestic and foreign. It is understandable, he was 15, but he clearly was not thinking of the North's defence.

 

Now Rodrik had to train these boys and when the Ironborn attacked was able to raise a decent sized host from the surrounding Winterfell lands (which is probably around the size of Ireland).

 

The rest had left eight days past, six hundred men from Winterfell and the nearest holdfasts.

 

But I'm not sure there was any difference between the garrison Robb left and the garrison Rodrik left. It can certainly be argued that Rodrik should have used more of that 600 hundred to hold Winterfell incase of attack while he was away, but that does not excuse the fact that Robb left Winterfell pretty vulnerable.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 6/4/2020 at 4:23 PM, Bernie Mac said:

No, but my reading of that is the army Ned was talking about was the type Gregor was using to raid the Riverlands rather than the type that Tywin and Jaime had in the Riverlands.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Ned would have assumed that 200 men would be enough to hold Moat Cailin against a significant force.

Just based off of how Theon and Catelyn describe Moat Cailin, I'd call that wrong. Gregor probably only had 300 men in the Riverlands (given Tywin's orders post GF and their comparative success). 200 archers would slaughter 300 horsemen dismounted (or mounted) assaulting through what Catelyn *and* Blackfish describe as a deathtrap for southerners. 

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Ned certainly is. It may also be that those 200 archers could hold off for a limited amount of time until it was supported by the rest of the North. That 200 was enough to delay, rather than completely hold out.

That doesn't jive with the descriptions.

 

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I don't think it a plot hole. Robb was 15 and was clearly not expecting that the Baratheons of Kings Landing, his father's allies, would kill his father or that they would not back down. Nor did he know how long he would be gone for. This is actually not just a 15 year old Robb issue, but an issue for many of the Northern lords who left their homes vulnerable and not enough men for their harvests.

That's fine but he's got 600 men he can call within a day or two's ride and 2000 when he besieges WF. Leaving the castle undefended to the point where 17 men who have to climb two 80+ foot walls and cross a moat.

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Rodrik did not have a decent sized garrison to begin with, his army was raised from the holdfasts in the Winterfell lands and by the description of them and how ineffective they were against Ramsay I don't think they were trained but mostly a scrape together of any numbers to scare the Ironborn away.

Right but his garrison / army diverge quite heavily from what you describe. Ignoring the fact that his force was mounted and scattered Cleftjaw's shield wall and Asha describes Rodrik forces as "many mounted" and "full of knights, warhorses, and siege weapons".  The fact that his force repeatedly tried to repeat to form up and oppose a mounted Dreadfort garrison belies that description as well. 

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No, it was not. Robb left Winterfell with nothing but untrained teenagers and Luwin to lead. In matter of fact it was Cat who sent Rodrik back.

Agreed here

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Just based off of how Theon and Catelyn describe Moat Cailin, I'd call that wrong. Gregor probably only had 300 men in the Riverlands (given Tywin's orders post GF and their comparative success). 200 archers would slaughter 300 horsemen dismounted (or mounted) assaulting through what Catelyn *and* Blackfish describe as a deathtrap for southerners. 

Sure, but I'm guessing there would have to be a minimum number of men there to protect the causeway. Moat Cailin is pretty huge, with three towers.

I don't think Ned is doing a Rainman calculation of putting the precise number of men for a raid, I think he made a precaution act of stationing men there in case things did turn to shit and those men could stop raiding parties invading.

I truly doubt that Ned would leave 200 archers against the Westerland army. I'm not sure you truly believe that either.

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

That doesn't jive with the descriptions.

?

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

That's fine but he's got 600 men he can call within a day or two's ride and 2000 when he besieges WF. Leaving the castle undefended to the point where 17 men who have to climb two 80+ foot walls and cross a moat.

The (less than) 2,000 if from the entire North, supplied by the Karstarks, Manderlys, Flints etc.

And yeah, Rodrik (and Robb before him) made poor decisions with regard to the defence of the Northern capital. Neither knew that someone with insider knowledge would chose to attack them there and then.

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Right but his garrison / army diverge quite heavily from what you describe.

Not really. I'm going from the books descriptions.

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

Ignoring the fact that his force was mounted

Whose force? Rodrik's entire force was not scattered. Where is that ever claimed?

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

and scattered Cleftjaw's shield wall and Asha describes Rodrik forces as "many mounted" and "full of knights, warhorses, and siege weapons".

The 900 were 'many mounted', the rest of that description comes from the men who joined much later after Winterfell had been captured. 600 of which was from Winterfell, 300 from the Cerwyen lands. 

"The old castellan broke his shield wall, yes," Asha said calmly. "What did you expect? This Ser Rodrik knows the land intimately, as the Cleftjaw does not, and many of the northmen were mounted. The ironborn lack the discipline to stand a charge of armored horse. Dagmer lives, be grateful for that much. He's leading the survivors back toward the Stony Shore."

She knows more than I do, Theon realized. That only made him angrier. "The victory has given Leobald Tallhart the courage to come out from behind his walls and join Ser Rodrik. And I've had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines.

 

 

Cleftjaw had less than 200 and few horses, Rodrik and Cerwyns host will obviously have had more horse than them. That does not mean that Rodrik's host was particularly strong or well trained. We have no idea about the 300 Cerwyn host, but not sure why they should be part of the discussion about the potential Winterfell garrison.

 

I'm not sure your point here? I said the Northmen left their homeland vulnerable. How are you arguing against this?

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The fact that his force repeatedly tried to repeat to form up and oppose a mounted Dreadfort garrison belies that description as well.

His force of just under 2k was beaten by a force not even 600 strong. This suggests, along with the comments from Bran, Rodrik, Luwin, Theon, Balon, Alys Karstark, the Umber uncles, that the North was devoid of its best, that it was mostly green boys and grey beards that were left to defend it.

 

This was not a subtle point by GRRM. He's rammed that point home in multiple chapters, from multiple characters. It amazes me that people like yourself, almost a decade after the last book, are still arguing otherwise.

[Universal Sword Donor]

13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Sure, but I'm guessing there would have to be a minimum number of men there to protect the causeway. Moat Cailin is pretty huge, with three towers.

I don't think Ned is doing a Rainman calculation of putting the precise number of men for a raid, I think he made a precaution act of stationing men there in case things did turn to shit and those men could stop raiding parties invading.

I truly doubt that Ned would leave 200 archers against the Westerland army. I'm not sure you truly believe that either.

I do. Because Ned literally says it and the context is of preparing the entire north for war against the Lannisters:

“Two hundred determined archers can hold the Neck against an army. Instruct Lord Manderly that he is to strengthen and repair all his defenses at White Harbor, and see that they are well manned. And from this day on, I want a careful watch kept over Theon Greyjoy. If there is war, we shall have sore need of his father’s fleet.”

And again, the descriptions we get of MC from Theon and Catelyn make it pretty apparent it's suicide to assault from the front as do the myriad stories we hear about Andal armies crumbling against MC's defenses.

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The (less than) 2,000 if from the entire North, supplied by the Karstarks, Manderlys, Flints etc.

Right. Not the first time levies would be called up and used to garrison a castle that wasn't their own.

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And yeah, Rodrik (and Robb before him) made poor decisions with regard to the defence of the Northern capital. Neither knew that someone with insider knowledge would chose to attack them there and then.

The insider knowledge is only useful if you make it past the walls. Someone walking by with a spear every 15-30 minutes would have absolutely torched the plan. Either it wasn't adequately garrisoned and /or no one was bothering to patrol.

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Not really. I'm going from the books descriptions.

I'd disagree

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Whose force? Rodrik's entire force was not scattered. Where is that ever claimed?

What are you talking about. I said Dagmer's shield wall was scattered. "Broken" if you prefer Asha's words.

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The 900 were 'many mounted', the rest of that description comes from the men who joined much later after Winterfell had been captured. 600 of which was from Winterfell, 300 from the Cerwyen lands. 

"The old castellan broke his shield wall, yes," Asha said calmly. "What did you expect? This Ser Rodrik knows the land intimately, as the Cleftjaw does not, and many of the northmen were mounted. The ironborn lack the discipline to stand a charge of armored horse. Dagmer lives, be grateful for that much. He's leading the survivors back toward the Stony Shore."

She knows more than I do, Theon realized. That only made him angrier. "The victory has given Leobald Tallhart the courage to come out from behind his walls and join Ser Rodrik. And I've had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines.

 

Cleftjaw had less than 200 and few horses, Rodrik and Cerwyns host will obviously have had more horse than them. That does not mean that Rodrik's host was particularly strong or well trained. We have no idea about the 300 Cerwyn host, but not sure why they should be part of the discussion about the potential Winterfell garrison.

 

I'm not sure your point here? I said the Northmen left their homeland vulnerable. How are you arguing against this?

Rodrik had command of those 900 men. He brought all of them to TS. He easily could have left 50 behind to help man the garrison. Adding men under your command to fortifications and defensive positions is done *in book* by multiple commanders. Robb augments Frey's garrison with 400 men. Roose leaves behind 600 men to defend the Trident crossing. Tywin gives Lorch the Bloody Mummers. Garrisons don't have to be men sworn to House Stark. It was just a moronic thing for Rodrik to do given the manpower he had collected, especially after killing Bolton's only remaining child.

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His force of just under 2k was beaten by a force not even 600 strong. This suggests, along with the comments from Bran, Rodrik, Luwin, Theon, Balon, Alys Karstark, the Umber uncles, that the North was devoid of its best, that it was mostly green boys and grey beards that were left to defend it.

This was not a subtle point by GRRM. He's rammed that point home in multiple chapters, from multiple characters. It amazes me that people like yourself, almost a decade after the last book, are still arguing otherwise.

 

They don't have to be the creme of the crop, but we know that not everyone was going to have a chance to meet up with Robb (per GRRM) and Manderly held back most of his troops. The men responding to Rodrik's calls are going to be throwing away expensive arms, armor and horses. It defies belief that they had no training, especially when we see them lose all their leaders, get ambushed, and still try to reform battle lines multiple times in the winter town against a mounted opponent.

He wrote those books nearly a decade after these scenes. You can call them nerfed or retconned if you want, but basically nothing we've seen in the first three books even remotely comes close to showing untrained, badly armed peasants fighting except the one small part of the army Tywin was using at bait. I'll happily show you the quotes showing the mixed forces, the equipment, the siege engines, and the formations they employ in AGoT and AFFC. Frankly reading the chapters drives home that these aren't untrained, poorly armed peasants in many many obvious ways.

I was never against arguing that Robb didn't leave the North vulnerable. I am making the argument Rodrik was an idiot for not calling up men to garrison WF when he clearly had that authority as castellan and ruler in Robb's stead, even if strengthening the garrison were just when he was away dealing with Dagmer, Ramsay, or the Manderly / Bolton skirmishes.

[Bernie Mac]

15 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I do.

Well then you do. This is where we disagree. I have my doubts that 200 archers could defeat a 35k army at Moat Cailin.

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Because Ned literally says it and the context is of preparing the entire north for war against the Lannisters:

“Two hundred determined archers can hold the Neck against an army. Instruct Lord Manderly that he is to strengthen and repair all his defenses at White Harbor, and see that they are well manned. And from this day on, I want a careful watch kept over Theon Greyjoy. If there is war, we shall have sore need of his father’s fleet.”

 

He says hold. My reading of that is that hold till reinforcements from the rest of the North. Do you honestly think that had a 35k Westerland army marched to Moat Cailin and word reached Robb at Winterfell, he'd not send reinforcements? That Ned would not expect him to send reinforcements?

200 Archers and not a man more is needed? Just so we are clear, that is your reading on the subject?

 

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And again, the descriptions we get of MC from Theon and Catelyn make it pretty apparent it's suicide to assault from the front as do the myriad stories we hear about Andal armies crumbling against MC's defenses.

Are these armies 35k large? Is Moat Cailin only protected by 200 men in these scenarios?

If not, seems this information you adding adds very little to your point.

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Right. Not the first time levies would be called up and used to garrison a castle that wasn't their own.

You are missing the point. Rodrik did not have access to those 2k when he set off against Cleftjaw. This is months later.

 

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The insider knowledge is only useful if you make it past the walls.

No, it adds to weakness's outside the Walls as well. It is not impossible to think that GRRM, given more time to flesh out the capture of Winterfell, could have explained how Theon got access into the castle due to his insider knowledge of the castle.

You are looking for reasons why the book does not make sense because you don't like the outcome and have spent close to a decade arguing your point. That would be my guess at least.

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Someone walking by with a spear every 15-30 minutes would have absolutely torched the plan. Either it wasn't adequately garrisoned and /or no one was bothering to patrol.

It was not adequately garrisoned to begin with. We both agree on that, right?

That is what was being discussed in this topic, that is what I disagreed with. Are you under the impression that the person I disagreed with is correct that Robb left Winterfell well garrisoned? Just so I can understand your point on this?

 

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I'd disagree

No, the books have been pretty clear. There are numerous quotes to back this up.

Do you have better sources then the characters I just named? Do you need refreshing on the quotes I am talking about? Pretty sure you are familar with them considering this is probably the 20th time we've had this discussion.

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What are you talking about. I said Dagmer's shield wall was scattered. "Broken" if you prefer Asha's words.

Dagmar had less than 200 hundred men and was not mounted. Obviously a partial amoint of Rodrik's force being mounted is going to be an advantage on top of the huge numbers that he has over Dagmar.

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Rodrik had command of those 900 men. He brought all of them to TS.

Yes, but not all of them directly from Winterfell. At best only 600 from Winterfell.

Do you agree on this? Or does this not make sense to you either? Are you under the impression that the Cerwyn's marched to Winterfell then Tohren's Square?

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He easily could have left 50 behind to help man the garrison.

He could. No one has disputed that in this discussion. In one of my earlier posts I said both Rodrik and Robb failed Winterfell.

Why are you ignoring what I actually said and trying to get some gotcha on something we don't actually disagree on.

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They don't have to be the creme of the crop, but we know that not everyone was going to have a chance to meet up with Robb (per GRRM) and Manderly held back most of his troops. The men responding to Rodrik's calls are going to be throwing away expensive arms, armor and horses.

Some maybe, likely not the majority from the Winterfell lands given what we have been told by Bran. Luwin and Rodrik himself.

Do you have a better source on the capabilities of the 600 men raised from the Winterfell lands than those three? I'm more than happy to change my opinion if you do have a better source.

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It defies belief that they had no training, especially when we see them lose all their leaders, get ambushed, and still try to reform battle lines multiple times in the winter town against a mounted opponent.

No training when Robb left, some training by Rodrik in the period he was gone for.

I mean, my quotes about the teenagers are from Rodrik training them, so it seems bizarre that you did not pick up on that?

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He wrote those books nearly a decade after these scenes.

And he backs it up with Alys Karstark's quote her men and Theon's quote in the Winds of Winter about the Northern men.

Nothing in the later books directly contradicts what the author has said about the North.

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You can call them nerfed or retconned if you want, but basically nothing we've seen in the first three books even remotely comes close to showing untrained, badly armed peasants fighting except the one small part of the army Tywin was using at bait.

We are talking about the men left behind in the North again.

This discussion is about the men left to defend the North. They, for the most part, are green boys or grey beards. The North was left vulnerable.

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I'll happily show you the quotes showing the mixed forces, the equipment, the siege engines, and the formations they employ in AGoT and AFFC. Frankly reading the chapters drives home that these aren't untrained, poorly armed peasants in many many obvious ways.

? What are you talking about here and how does it relay to the quotes you are replying to?

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I was never against arguing that Robb didn't leave the North vulnerable.

But that was my entire point.

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I am making the argument Rodrik was an idiot for not calling up men to garrison WF when he clearly had that authority as castellan and ruler in Robb's stead,

Sure. Rodrik and Robb were both idiots for doing that.

Essentially you agree with my point I made to the other user that Robb left the North vulnerable. I think there are reasons why Robb did what he did, same for Rodrik. But essentially, yeah, they both could have left Winterfell better equipped.

Anyway, hope all is well with you and yours and the Corona is not hurting anyone you love.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 6/9/2020 at 5:15 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Well then you do. This is where we disagree. I have my doubts that 200 archers could defeat a 35k army at Moat Cailin.

He says hold. My reading of that is that hold till reinforcements from the rest of the North. Do you honestly think that had a 35k Westerland army marched to Moat Cailin and word reached Robb at Winterfell, he'd not send reinforcements? That Ned would not expect him to send reinforcements?

200 Archers and not a man more is needed? Just so we are clear, that is your reading on the subject?

Never said more couldn't or wouldn't come. It's hundreds of miles from the nearest settlements and the archers *might* have a raven. They'd be holding against that army for weeks at least. The half dead IB threw back Ramsay's men 3 or 4 times from the *north* and Ramsay didn't want to risk his large force attacking again or wasn't confident in freeing the route up for his father so he sent Theon in to do it peacefully.

Since it is a deathtrap where people have to wade through chest deep water to get past the towers and armies cannot live off the land there, yes I do believe the in world character with excellent military experience when he says "200 determined archers can hold MC against an army."

On 6/9/2020 at 5:15 AM, Bernie Mac said:

 

Are these armies 35k large? Is Moat Cailin only protected by 200 men in these scenarios?

If not, seems this information you adding adds very little to your point.

 

On 6/9/2020 at 5:15 AM, Bernie Mac said:

You are missing the point. Rodrik did not have access to those 2k when he set off against Cleftjaw. This is months later.

No I am not. He had 900 men. He can easily leave 50 of them behind to garrison the castle. He didn't break Dagmer's line with an infantry charge.

On 6/9/2020 at 5:15 AM, Bernie Mac said:

 

No, it adds to weakness's outside the Walls as well. It is not impossible to think that GRRM, given more time to flesh out the capture of Winterfell, could have explained how Theon got access into the castle due to his insider knowledge of the castle.

You are looking for reasons why the book does not make sense because you don't like the outcome and have spent close to a decade arguing your point. That would be my guess at least.

It was not adequately garrisoned to begin with. We both agree on that, right?

That is what was being discussed in this topic, that is what I disagreed with. Are you under the impression that the person I disagreed with is correct that Robb left Winterfell well garrisoned? Just so I can understand your point on this?

No Robb left WF horribly undermanned but Rodrik absolutely failed multiple times by leaving WF undermanned when there are 600 men who can answer his call with arms, armor, and many having a horse. You know your typical northern men-at-arms. The kind of guys that Ramsay brought from his father's garrison.

 

On 6/9/2020 at 5:15 AM, Bernie Mac said:

No, the books have been pretty clear. There are numerous quotes to back this up.

Do you have better sources then the characters I just named? Do you need refreshing on the quotes I am talking about? Pretty sure you are familar with them considering this is probably the 20th time we've had this discussion.

Dagmar had less than 200 hundred men and was not mounted. Obviously a partial amoint of Rodrik's force being mounted is going to be an advantage on top of the huge numbers that he has over Dagmar.

Yes, but not all of them directly from Winterfell. At best only 600 from Winterfell.

 

On 6/9/2020 at 5:15 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Do you agree on this? Or does this not make sense to you either? Are you under the impression that the Cerwyn's marched to Winterfell then Tohren's Square?

It's a possibility. Either way it doesn't stop Rodrik from sending a rider / raven to Cerwyn to get a handle on his numbers and adapt accordingly.

On 6/9/2020 at 5:15 AM, Bernie Mac said:

He could. No one has disputed that in this discussion. In one of my earlier posts I said both Rodrik and Robb failed Winterfell.

Why are you ignoring what I actually said and trying to get some gotcha on something we don't actually disagree on.

Some maybe, likely not the majority from the Winterfell lands given what we have been told by Bran. Luwin and Rodrik himself.

Do you have a better source on the capabilities of the 600 men raised from the Winterfell lands than those three? I'm more than happy to change my opinion if you do have a better source.

No training when Robb left, some training by Rodrik in the period he was gone for.

I mean, my quotes about the teenagers are from Rodrik training them, so it seems bizarre that you did not pick up on that?

And he backs it up with Alys Karstark's quote her men and Theon's quote in the Winds of Winter about the Northern men.

Nothing in the later books directly contradicts what the author has said about the North.

We are talking about the men left behind in the North again.

This discussion is about the men left to defend the North. They, for the most part, are green boys or grey beards. The North was left vulnerable.

The only time green boys and grey beards are mentioned is with respect to the Umbers. Rodrik said: "Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around. Many will not come back to us, and we must needs find the men to take their places."

He's talking about a full time WF guard, not mustering the levy from around WF. A guy with the arms and armor who runs his own farm with 3-4 hands outside his family is not going to be a "likely lad." He already has a job. His younger son might though. And again he's talking in the immediate vicinity of WF. We don't know where the Stark lands start and end but it's going to stretch for more than "leagyes around"

• The Karstarks manage to muster up 400 spearman, 50 archers, and 12 mounted men at arms and we literally get no description beyond that.
• Manderly has 100 knights and 200 men at arms when he arrives at WF plus whatever else left he had (which he implies is quite a bit).
• We know that Barbrey Dustin sent as few men as she dare, so that would leave a certain amount of her best soldiers back.
• We never even *hear* of a Ryswell south of MC*, just Ryswell men under Connel. Roger or Rickard was north of MC when the IB took it and we know basically no Ryswell came back north with Roose
• We don't get a description of just the Cerwyn or WF men except that many were mounted and they can mount an organized cavalry charge against a shield wall. So that means trained war horses and men who know how to ride them.
• For the WF siege, Manderly sends up twelve barges of knights, warhorses, and siege engines. 
• We also know that Manderly claims he has more heavy horse than anyone else north of the neck
• When Theon rides out to talk to Rodrik, what does he see: archers on the roofs of surrounding houses, spearmen to his right, and to his left a line of mounted knights beneath the merman-and-trident of House Manderly.” 
• The dreadfort garrison -- 400-600 depending on who you believe counts best -- are mostly (if not all) mounted and armed with lances and battles axes, great swords and shields. 
• Theon sees the men under Rodrik repeatedly try to form up against a mounted force after Rodrik dies and they are ambushed: “Theon watched them charge and wheel and charge again, chopping the larger force to bloody pieces every time they tried to form up between the houses.”

You can say Robb and Rodrik left WF undermanned and vulnerable. But you can't realistically we know that the North is left with old windbags and small children when the small number confirmed as such come from one house fighting against itself and the other says they took all the men and yet show up with nearly 500 men later including 4-5 noble leaders in their fighting primes.

Most of the people listed here are still alive. Claiming that they are old graybeards or young children when probably 80-90 percent of them are not described as that though given the opportunity even later in the book.

* FWIW I think he drastically expanded the importance of these houses in the last two books to set up something of a war in the north

On 6/9/2020 at 5:15 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Sure. Rodrik and Robb were both idiots for doing that.

Essentially you agree with my point I made to the other user that Robb left the North vulnerable. I think there are reasons why Robb did what he did, same for Rodrik. But essentially, yeah, they both could have left Winterfell better equipped.

If Robb left the North vulnerable it was due to lack of leadership, not lack of men to defend it. There are thousands of men who know how to fight and have the proper equipment raised by other people to fight petty internal squabbles, affect treason, and siege WF (on multiple occasions).