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What really happened to House Velaryon after the regency?


The Merling King

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Any thoughts or headcannon on what happened to House Valeryon in the 100 year gap between Alyn Oakenfist and the mad kings master of Ships Lucerys Velaryon?  I’m still not sure how they fell so far compared to the Hightowers, I know they lost a lot of resources during the dance and Lyseni Spring but I would think they would have been able to rebuild over 150 years. Oakenfist alone made several journeys and you would think future Velaryons would follow in the footsteps of the Seasnake and Oakenfist. I’m also surprised someone as proud as Alyn Velaryon would not attempt to rebuild Hightide or Spicetown. Tywin showed it was possible to restore a house to greatness in one generation.
 

Also wouldn’t it have made sense for the Targaryens to continue to support the Velaryon’s and keep the “royal” fleet supreme after the dance and Lyseni Spring fiasco. Imagine if the Velaryons were as powerful during RR as the DOTDs, they don’t even seem to be on the Redwyne level. I personally think the reason for House Valeryon’s steady decline post dance as opposed to House Hightower and the reemergence of royal incest was part of GRRMs end game to isolate the Targaryens.

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There is no indication that the Velaryons declined after the Regency, especially not while Alyn Velaryon was still around. He would have rebuild a huge portion of the house's wealth and fame, not allowed to decline it. But neither he nor any of his descendants would have repeated or gotten close to the Sea Snake's feats. He was the man of a century.

My personal guess is that the real decline of the Velaryons only came with Robert's Rebellion. The Targaryen royal fleet was destroyed by the storm in the night of Dany's birth - and one imagines that most of those ships were Velaryon ships - and afterwards Robert may have simply forbidden them to rebuild their fleet or taken a considerable part of their wealth. The reason why Stannis was installed as Lord of Dragonstone seems to have been to keep the Velaryons, the Celtigars, and the other Targaryen loyalists in the Narrow Sea in line.

And I'd not discount the chance that there were other indirect Targaryen-Velaryon matches after Baela-Alyn and the affair of Alyn-Elaena by means of the children of a Velaryon or Targaryen daughter marrying a Targaryen/Velaryon - for instance, Alyn and Baela's Laena Velaryon could be the mother of one the brides of the sons of Daeron II (especially Jena Dondarrion or Aelinor Penrose), Elaena's Penrose daughters (Laena, Jocelyn, and Joy) could have married into House Velaryon, one of Egg's sisters, Vaella the Simple, Prince Maegor, etc. could have had Velaryon spouses.

There is also a chance that some of the Targaryen-Martells ended up marrying into House Velaryon, etc.

I'm also inclined to believe that Daeron I was not betrothed to his sister Daena and instead married his younger brother Baelor to her because he himself was betrothed to a younger daughter of Alyn Velaryon and Baela Targaryen.

The reason why there were no direct marriages between the Velaryon and the Targaryens after Alyn and Baela may have to do with the fact that there simply were no suitable brides around when matches were made - or only when there were also daughters around for them to marry.

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55 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no indication that the Velaryons declined after the Regency, especially not while Alyn Velaryon was still around. He would have rebuild a huge portion of the house's wealth and fame, not allowed to decline it. But neither he nor any of his descendants would have repeated or gotten close to the Sea Snake's feats. He was the man of a century.

My personal guess is that the real decline of the Velaryons only came with Robert's Rebellion. The Targaryen royal fleet was destroyed by the storm in the night of Dany's birth - and one imagines that most of those ships were Velaryon ships - and afterwards Robert may have simply forbidden them to rebuild their fleet or taken a considerable part of their wealth. The reason why Stannis was installed as Lord of Dragonstone seems to have been to keep the Velaryons, the Celtigars, and the other Targaryen loyalists in the Narrow Sea in line.

And I'd not discount the chance that there were other indirect Targaryen-Velaryon matches after Baela-Alyn and the affair of Alyn-Elaena by means of the children of a Velaryon or Targaryen daughter marrying a Targaryen/Velaryon - for instance, Alyn and Baela's Laena Velaryon could be the mother of one the brides of the sons of Daeron II (especially Jena Dondarrion or Aelinor Penrose), Elaena's Penrose daughters (Laena, Jocelyn, and Joy) could have married into House Velaryon, one of Egg's sisters, Vaella the Simple, Prince Maegor, etc. could have had Velaryon spouses.

There is also a chance that some of the Targaryen-Martells ended up marrying into House Velaryon, etc.

I'm also inclined to believe that Daeron I was not betrothed to his sister Daena and instead married his younger brother Baelor to her because he himself was betrothed to a younger daughter of Alyn Velaryon and Baela Targaryen.

The reason why there were no direct marriages between the Velaryon and the Targaryens after Alyn and Baela may have to do with the fact that there simply were no suitable brides around when matches were made - or only when there were also daughters around for them to marry.

Pretty much as you say, but I don't think the decline started with Robert's rebellion. They were already losing political power due to their lack of marriages with he Targs and the Great Houses slowly becoming more and more involved in the politics of the realm. Also there is one more note worthy event. The Blackfyre rebellions. Now Daemon Blackfyre's grandmother was Velaryon, and so he was closely related to them, while Daeron's last Velaryon ancestor was Alyssa. Also the Blackfyre had this marriage dynamic to it, with the Blackfyre supporting marring inward, while the Daeron Targs were clearly marrying outwards, and so the Velaryons were more helped by siding with the Blackfyres. So the possibility that the Velaryons supported the Blackfyres cannot be overlooked.

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13 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Pretty much as you say, but I don't think the decline started with Robert's rebellion. They were already losing political power due to their lack of marriages with he Targs and the Great Houses slowly becoming more and more involved in the politics of the realm. Also there is one more note worthy event. The Blackfyre rebellions. Now Daemon Blackfyre's grandmother was Velaryon, and so he was closely related to them, while Daeron's last Velaryon ancestor was Alyssa. Also the Blackfyre had this marriage dynamic to it, with the Blackfyre supporting marring inward, while the Daeron Targs were clearly marrying outwards, and so the Velaryons were more helped by siding with the Blackfyres. So the possibility that the Velaryons supported the Blackfyres cannot be overlooked.

We can pretty much overlook that prospect in light of the fact that the Lucerys Velaryon was still Aerys II's Master of Ships. One imagines that between Aegon III and Aerys II very few, if any, Masters of Ships were from other houses. And if you have effectively a hereditary office in the Small Council you are part of the institutional elite of the Realm. Of course there is a chance that some Targaryens had issues with the Velaryons - I could see Aegon IV naming a Master of Ships from another house, for instance - but there seems to be a connection there that was never actually severed.

It stands to reason that from Alyn onwards the Velaryon influence declined to the way it was before Corlys insofar as wealth was concerned, but the political difference would have remained the same - although it would have been greater while there was a Velaryon queen.

I also see no indication that the great houses were more involved in the politics of the Realm from Aegon III onwards - Jaehaerys I's council was dominated by great houses with there being Redwynes, Tyrells, Tullys, Baratheons, and Hightowers.

If the Velaryons had sided with the Blackfyres they would have been destroyed or driven into exile. The Targaryens could not suffer potential traitors in their own backyard. There seems to be a reason why no great house ever truly backed the Black Dragon - if they had, they would have been destroyed or at least demoted. The Tyrells would have lost Highgarden, the Hightowers Oldtown, etc. - like Ambrose Butterwell loses Whitewalls, the Peakes two of their castles, etc.

I'm not sure what you mean by marrying inward/outward there. We don't know how much Targaryen blood the brides of the sons of Daeron II had - Aelinor Penrose is a confirmed cousin of Aerys I on the Targaryen side. And with Elaena's Penrose daughters including a Laena I expect that Aelinor is Ronnel Penrose's daughter by a first wife - and his mother would be Laena Velaryon, the daughter of Alyn and Baela. Ronnel would then be roughly the same age as Daeron II, and Aelinor roughly the same age as Aerys I.

Jena Dondarrion, Alys Arryn, and Dyanna Dayne could be descended from other Targaryen-Velaryons or one of the six Targaryen-Hightowers.

Daemon Blackfyre married a foreigner from Tyrosh and we have no clue whether his children and grandchildren married their siblings or cousins. Could very well be that Daemon III's and Maelys' last female Targaryen ancestor was Daena the Defiant.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We can pretty much overlook that prospect in light of the fact that the Lucerys Velaryon was still Aerys II's Master of Ships. One imagines that between Aegon III and Aerys II very few, if any, Masters of Ships were from other houses. And if you have effectively a hereditary office in the Small Council you are part of the institutional elite of the Realm. Of course there is a chance that some Targaryens had issues with the Velaryons - I could see Aegon IV naming a Master of Ships from another house, for instance - but there seems to be a connection there that was never actually severed.

It stands to reason that from Alyn onwards the Velaryon influence declined to the way it was before Corlys insofar as wealth was concerned, but the political difference would have remained the same - although it would have been greater while there was a Velaryon queen.

I also see no indication that the great houses were more involved in the politics of the Realm from Aegon III onwards - Jaehaerys I's council was dominated by great houses with there being Redwynes, Tyrells, Tullys, Baratheons, and Hightowers.

If the Velaryons had sided with the Blackfyres they would have been destroyed or driven into exile. The Targaryens could not suffer potential traitors in their own backyard. There seems to be a reason why no great house ever truly backed the Black Dragon - if they had, they would have been destroyed or at least demoted. The Tyrells would have lost Highgarden, the Hightowers Oldtown, etc. - like Ambrose Butterwell loses Whitewalls, the Peakes two of their castles, etc.

I'm not sure what you mean by marrying inward/outward there. We don't know how much Targaryen blood the brides of the sons of Daeron II had - Aelinor Penrose is a confirmed cousin of Aerys I on the Targaryen side. And with Elaena's Penrose daughters including a Laena I expect that Aelinor is Ronnel Penrose's daughter by a first wife - and his mother would be Laena Velaryon, the daughter of Alyn and Baela. Ronnel would then be roughly the same age as Daeron II, and Aelinor roughly the same age as Aerys I.

Jena Dondarrion, Alys Arryn, and Dyanna Dayne could be descended from other Targaryen-Velaryons or one of the six Targaryen-Hightowers.

Daemon Blackfyre married a foreigner from Tyrosh and we have no clue whether his children and grandchildren married their siblings or cousins. Could very well be that Daemon III's and Maelys' last female Targaryen ancestor was Daena the Defiant.

Hightowers did support Daemon Blackfyre, They were just smart and supported the Targaryens too. How much the Hightowers supported both sides is something we don't really know.  The Velaryons could've done the same thing, although I don't think its likely. 

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4 minutes ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

Hightowers did support Daemon Blackfyre, They were just smart and supported the Targaryens too. How much the Hightowers supported both sides is something we don't really know.  The Velaryons could've done the same thing, although I don't think its likely. 

That is why I wrote 'never truly'. They may have sent some men to the Black Dragon, but not enough to really feel the wrath of the Red Dragon after the wars were over. To be honest, my guess is that Daemon Blackfyre didn't get more men from the Hightowers than Aegon the Uncrowned got from Lyman Lannister...

It also stands to reason that the Velaryons were loyal followers of Aerys I and the Lord of Driftmark Master of Ships during the Second Rebellion - it is made clear that the royal fleet was needed close to home. If the Velaryons had betrayed the Targaryens before they would be in dire peril there, being incapable to fight off an enemy invasion and also fearing that the Velaryons would join the Blackfyres. Instead, it stands to reason that a huge chunk of the royal fleet is made up of Velaryon ships in that era.

Tyland Lannister and Manfryd Redwyne may have also built ships for the Crown, but the Targaryens having some ships themselves doesn't mean the Velaryons didn't have more ships of their own - or at least as many as the Crown had.

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6 hours ago, The Merling King said:

I’m still not sure how they fell so far compared to the Hightowers, I know they lost a lot of resources during the dance and Lyseni Spring but I would think they would have been able to rebuild over 150 years. Oakenfist alone made several journeys and you would think future Velaryons would follow in the footsteps of the Seasnake and Oakenfist. I’m also surprised someone as proud as Alyn Velaryon would not attempt to rebuild Hightide or Spicetown. 

But Velaryons are a third rate house. Their fortunes were always tied to Targaryens. They had a brief golden age under Seasnake who gathered a vast fortune in his expeditions, but without his financial/administrative genius, the house swiftly returned to its relatively impoverished state.

Alyn Velaryon had six great voyages of his own, but his first voyage had nothing to do with profit (and was probably rather ruinous in financial terms). His other voyages are not listed, yet there is no guarantee they were commercial in nature either. Alyn is also noted as "no haggler", so even if he did try to win a fortune, chances are he never got back in black. Hence why the losses of the Dance could never be regained.

Hightowers have a giant port and a sizable domain in a rich, fertile realm. Velaryons have nothing of the sort - main ports of the region are located elsewhere and their domain is a chain of small islands. As long as Lord Hightower doesn't screw up too hard, he is guaranteed to be an influential man. Lord Velaryon can try to coast on royal favor, but it's not the same as to have a developed power base of his own. 

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Their decline was because of Alyn, he disappeared at sea, likely with a big portion of the fleet, couple that with a few not very good lords to keep Alyn's good star  and without dragons and you can see how things went south. After Alyn the Velarons seem to have disappeared in obscurity and with Tyland's idea of having a proper Royal Fleet, they would be useless. They would still be relatively rich but their glory days  were gone with Alyn's death.

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27 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Just a thought: Has Alyn's disappearing ever been tied to the failed naval invasion of Dorne in the early reign of Aegon IV?

Nope. I just think that his 7th travel became his grave.

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1 hour ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Just a thought: Has Alyn's disappearing ever been tied to the failed naval invasion of Dorne in the early reign of Aegon IV?

You mean because of the fleet Aegon IV lost in that debacle? Not to our knowledge, but I guess it is likely. However, it seems there would have been a year after the aborted. Elaena married in 176 AC and she waited a year for Alyn's return, meaning chances are that he disappeared in 175 AC, not in 174 AC, the year of the war. Also, I'd be inclined to believe that Alyn Velaryon would have had nothing to do with Aegon IV's stupid plan to conquer Dorne with wooden dragons. I'd not be surprised if he was dismissed by Aegon IV and the Master of Coin who built the fleet for the king was either Alyn's son or grandson or a Master of Ships from another house entirely. One should also keep in mind that Alyn Velaryon taking a second Targaryen woman in marriage as second, third or fourth wife wouldn't be something the Unworthy would have approved. Legitimate or legitimized children from such a union could eventually endanger his own claim to the throne - or the claim of his sons.

 

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I will wait for hopefully more information in F&B II.

With ending of Dance they are still one of the most powerful houses , though they lost third of their navy, they still have mightiest fleet as seen to the Crown's reliance on them in dealing with Ironborn and later Dornish War. 

Their Ward is married to king Aegon III and will be mother of future kings as well. 

Certainly losses during Robert's Rebellion and rise of Braavos and Redwyne fleet , or rise of other naval centers in Westeros contributed to loss of influence.

My some would say far-fetched theory is that they hired faceless men to kill Dalton Greyjoy and Queen Jaehaera and that price they had to pay partly contributed to their decline.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Eltharion21 said:

I will wait for hopefully more information in F&B II.

 

 

That’s my feeling, that we’ll see in the second instalment. Though since Roberts Rebellion their downfall is sort of self explanatory,  I did find myself thinking about houses which were prominent in Fire & Blood, even Dunk & Egg, but lacking in A song of Ice and Fire.

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17 minutes ago, CassDarry said:

 Though since Roberts Rebellion their downfall is sort of self explanatory,  I did find myself thinking about houses which were prominent in Fire & Blood, even Dunk & Egg, but lacking in A song of Ice and Fire.

I'm surprised they weren't wiped out when Bob took the throne. They're "dragonspawn" just as much as the Targs. In F&B they're de facto dragonlords and a cadet branch of House Targaryen via the intermarriages. 

Having them swear dealt to Stannis as Lord of Dragonstone was probably way of keeping a sharp eye on them. 

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17 hours ago, Myrish Lace said:

But Velaryons are a third rate house. Their fortunes were always tied to Targaryens. They had a brief golden age under Seasnake who gathered a vast fortune in his expeditions, but without his financial/administrative genius, the house swiftly returned to its relatively impoverished state.

According to F&B, the Valeryons were the second house of the realm or in competition with the Baratheon‘s and Hightower’s from the conquest until the dance and even the Lannister’s were jealous. I do agree that without the influence of the royal family the power of House Velaryon was not on level with the Hightower’s and the apex they reached under the Seasnake was ephemeral. However if they rise and fall with the Targaryens, the decline still seems a little premature.

17 hours ago, Myrish Lace said:

Hightowers have a giant port and a sizable domain in a rich, fertile realm. Velaryons have nothing of the sort - main ports of the region are located elsewhere and their domain is a chain of small islands. As long as Lord Hightower doesn't screw up too hard, he is guaranteed to be an influential man. Lord Velaryon can try to coast on royal favor, but it's not the same as to have a developed power base of his own. 

The Hightower's power is not tied to the iron throne like the Velaryons or even there direct overlord house Tyrell. I read on another tread that GRRM made Otto and Alicent members of a cadet branch and not the main line to justify the Hightower’s keeping there land and titles. However the regency of Aegon III seems awful nervous about the Hightower's and the fact that they want to reconcile with another royal marriage after the dance is kind of funny. Also the fact that the regents for dragonless Targaryens and the infant lord of Highgarden bend over backwards to appease them shows how powerful, feared and respected the Hightowers truly were.

 

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23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no indication that the Velaryons declined after the Regency, especially not while Alyn Velaryon was still around. He would have rebuild a huge portion of the house's wealth and fame, not allowed to decline it. But neither he nor any of his descendants would have repeated or gotten close to the Sea Snake's feats. He was the man of a century.

My personal guess is that the real decline of the Velaryons only came with Robert's Rebellion. The Targaryen royal fleet was destroyed by the storm in the night of Dany's birth - and one imagines that most of those ships were Velaryon ships - and afterwards Robert may have simply forbidden them to rebuild their fleet or taken a considerable part of their wealth. The reason why Stannis was installed as Lord of Dragonstone seems to have been to keep the Velaryons, the Celtigars, and the other Targaryen loyalists in the Narrow Sea in line.

I do agree that their power and influence would be severely limited post rebellion but it seems like the decline had already happened and they are pretty irrelevant by the time of RR. For example during the reign of the the mad king they were clearly behind house Lannister and Baratheon in royal favor and I think the fact that Aerys sent Steffon Baratheon to Essos to look for brides for Rhaegar instead of the Velaryon MOS also is interesting.

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57 minutes ago, The Merling King said:

I do agree that their power and influence would be severely limited post rebellion but it seems like the decline had already happened and they are pretty irrelevant by the time of RR. For example during the reign of the the mad king they were clearly behind house Lannister and Baratheon in royal favor and I think the fact that Aerys sent Steffon Baratheon to Essos to look for brides for Rhaegar instead of the Velaryon MOS also is interesting.

I'd rather see this as royal favoritism towards the king's close buddies (one of whom was also his first cousin) than a decline in Velaryon influence. I mean, if you went by such signs then the Velaryons would also be in decline and out of favor during the reign of Jaehaerys I when a lowborn septon was running the kingdom and Manfryd Redwyne and other non-Velaryons served as Master of Coin for about fifty years.

Until we get a detailed picture - or any picture at all - about the Velaryons between Oakenfist and Lucerys we cannot even guess at their status during that era. In fact, it might be there was another Corlys or another Oakenfist in that era we just haven't heard anything about as of yet. We know next to nothing about the reigns of Maekar and Aegon V.

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22 hours ago, Ser Uncle P said:

I

I'm surprised they weren't wiped out when Bob took the throne. They're "dragonspawn" just as much as the Targs. In F&B they're de facto dragonlords and a cadet branch of House Targaryen via the intermarriages. 

Having them swear dealt to Stannis as Lord of Dragonstone was probably way of keeping a sharp eye on them. 

With Royal fleet destroyed and Stannis as the Lord, A’s you say to keep and eye on them, Robert probably thought they had done enough. Probably there’s a chance him, Stannis and Renly have the more recent Targaryen blood than the Velaryons. 

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Until we get a detailed picture - or any picture at all - about the Velaryons between Oakenfist and Lucerys we cannot even guess at their status during that era. In fact, it might be there was another Corlys or another Oakenfist in that era we just haven't heard anything about as of yet. We know next to nothing about the reigns of Maekar and Aegon V.

Hopefully the second Fire and Blood will give us this, if it’s not too focused on the Blackfyre Rebellions but I’m theory, driven by legends as Oakenfist and Corlys a Lord Velaryon may well of tried to emulate and fail costing the House status and riches.

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9 hours ago, CassDarry said:

Hopefully the second Fire and Blood will give us this, if it’s not too focused on the Blackfyre Rebellions but I’m theory, driven by legends as Oakenfist and Corlys a Lord Velaryon may well of tried to emulate and fail costing the House status and riches.

To be sure, Alyn Velaryon also lost a part of the wealth of House Velaryon when the Rogare Bank collapsed, since he had invested money there.

But Mouse, his mother, seems to be the kind of woman who really knows how to make money, and Alyn himself must have had a lot of success and collected a lot of spoils throughout his six voyages and whatever he got out of the victory over Dorne - which was his plan, meaning a lot of the stuff Daeron I took from the Dornish lords in riches and prices would have gone to Driftmark - so it stands to reason that they made up for much of what they lost.

There is certainly also the possibility that a succession of foolhardy and moronic lords cost them more wealth later on, but as of yet there is no indication for that. During the War of the Five Kings the Velaryons still make up the largest contingent of the ships the lords bring to his force, and Davos makes it clear that Lord Monford is still very rich and haughty and very aware of his high rank and noble blood.

At this point we also have no reason to believe that Hull isn't still a thriving town on Driftmark, doing a lot of trade.

If Lord Lucerys Velaryon was still on the the council of Aerys II having the tradition Velaryon office of Master of Ships, then there isn't really a strong sign of their decline. One doesn't have to be as rich or richer than the Hightowers and Lannisters to be very wealthy and influential.

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On 4/26/2020 at 9:35 AM, The Wondering Wolf said:

Just a thought: Has Alyn's disappearing ever been tied to the failed naval invasion of Dorne in the early reign of Aegon IV?

I can't remember if I have suggested such on these forums, although I have previously on r/asoiaf. This is very likely, imo. Aegon IV's failed invasion of Dorne in 174 AC included a (royal) fleet that was scattered & destroyed in a storm, whilst Alyn disappeared at sea around the same time. That's quite a coincidence if not one & the same. Oakenfist was probably still Master of Ships at this time & would be the natural choice to lead such a fleet.

Perhaps related, if Baela had already passed away, I find it strange/interesting that Alyn & Elaena did not marry. After all, we're told the princess hoped to wed the admiral, which is couldn't occur if Baela were still alive (unless they had legally divorced somehow, but that's unlikely at best) & doesn't exactly match with what we know about Elaena if she were say hoping for her aunt to hurry up & die, so she could marry the widower. Therefore, I believe Baela either died prior to, or during, the affair.

So, I wonder if Aegon IV (& maybe Viserys II before him) had yet to give his permission for this union to be officialised, say conditional on Oakenfist's (successful) participation in his Conquest of Dorne. After all the deaths from the Young Dragon's folly, Baelor's peace & Viserys' apparent (at least nominal) support of such, & some 15 years, I lean towards Lord Velaryon not being supportive of another (doomed to fail) invasion of Dorne. Mayhaps the Unworthy could use Alyn & Elaena's desire to wed to secure the support of Driftmark's fleet.

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