The Purple Wedding, the pie or the wine?

[John Suburbs]

18 minutes ago, Kaelthas said:

It doesn't make that much sense for the Tyrells to kill Tyrion. The critical part in denying The Lannisters the North is abducting (or killing) Sansa.

If Tyrion gets killed, the Lannisters can just marry her to someone else- someone who will actually consume the marriage, with a good chance that Sansa will get moved to Casterly Rock, and out of the Tyrells range forever.

And even if the Tyrells had secured Sansa, killing Tyrion wouldn't have been much of a Priority. First, because there are rumors about the marriage not having been consummated, and thus null and void. Second, because there would be no chance for the Tyrells to marry Sansa in the the in the near-to mid future without pissing of the Lannisters big time.

 

By the way, I agree with everything Agnessa S. said above.

If they take Sansa and leave Tyrion alive, then Tyrion remains Lord Regent of Winterfell regardless of where Sansa is or who has her. He is her legal husband. Alternately, killing Tyrion but leaving Sansa to Tywin will do exactly as you say: she will just be married off to someone else.

From the Tyrell perspective, then, the plan has to be to kill Tyrion and remove Sansa. Ideally, they would like to have her to themselves, but Littlefinger is the only one who can get her out of the capital without being seen by a little bird, so they have no choice but to let him have her. It's the lesser of two evils. And all of this, by the way, was deftly orchestrated by Littlefinger.

And you are also correct that no one can marry Sansa and claim the north as long as the Lannisters are in power. This is why the next phase of this plan is to arrange the Lannister's downfall. But by the same token, the Tyrells know that LF cannot use Sansa until this happens either. So if he does end up getting the north through her, it will take a while, and it will be after the Lannister menace is gone. Even then a united north-riverlands-vale power bloc is less of a concern than a north-westerlands-crownlands-stormlands and possibly Dorne power bloc, all cemented by the Iron Throne. If things had worked out as planned, the Tyrells would have the Reach and the Iron Throne, which still makes them the most powerful house in the realm.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Agnessa Schizoid said:

What a bizarre argument. Margaery is about to be married off to sadistic psychopath whether she wants it or not, she sees him humiliating his uncle and can imagine what will happen to her if she displeases him. For Roslin her marriage to Edmure is a dream come true, a once in a lifetime opportunity to  get decent hustand and get away from Twins, where majority of offsprings and women especially are given as much respect as cattle. Only she won't become the Lady of Riverrun because her wedding is about to be turned into bloodbath.  

Btw, I was an excellent liar even as a child. My own mother couldn't tell if I am lying or not. Some people are just good actors. You believe in what you're saying in the moment so it's convincing. More relevantly, we'll soon see Sansa lying pretty convincingly under duress.

 

ETA: If Tyrells didn't plan to kill Joffrey, it would be beyond moronic for them to use such an important and triumphant moment as Marge wedding into royal family to kill relatively unimportant guy like Tyrion, who can be killed at any time. Joffrey is harder to get to however and it's their last chance to do it before Marge becomes "spoiled goods". 

 

And yet Margaery shows absolutely no concern whatsoever about marrying Joffrey, even though she is under no illusions as to what he is:

Quote

"You mustn't marry him. He's not like he seems, he's not. He'll hurt you."

"I shouldn't think so." Margaery smiled confidently. "It's brave of you to warn me, but you need not fear. Joff's spoiled and vain and I don't doubt that he's as cruel as you say, but Father forced him to name Loras to his Kingsguard before he would agree to the match. I shall have the finest knight in the Seven Kingdoms protecting me night and day, as Prince Aemon protected Naerys. So our little lion had best behave , hadn't he?"

Is she lying here? Why? They are trying to keep Sansa in their confidence so she goes through with the Willas plan, Why would she lie in a way that only sews doubt in her mind as to their intentions?

And it also points up the lie about killing Joffrey so Loras doesn't have to. Loras was put in the KG specifically to protect Margaery from Joffrey, but then they decide to kill Joff first so that Loras won't do what they intended him to do right from the start? Huh?

And finally, there is zero indication, absolutely none, that Joffrey is hostile toward Margaery in any way, not is there any reason why he should be. Look at him a the wedding:

Quote

"Your Grace," Lord Tywin's voice was impeccably correct. "They are bringing in the pie. Your sword is needed."

"The pie?" Joffrey took his queen by the hand. "Come, my lady, it's the pie."

snip

A roar of delight went up from the benches, and the fiddlers and pipers in the gallery began to play a sprightly tune. Joff took his bride in his arms, and whirled her around merrily.

Is he faking it? We've seen Joffrey fake it at the riverside dinner and elsewhere and it's laughably transparent. Here, he is genuinely ecstatic at marrying a hot 17 year-old rather than scrawny mopey Sansa. It's like the freshman high school geek getting to marry and shag the head cheerleader/prom queen. Margaery is also a master seductress, trained by two of the best in the business, Lady Taena Merryweather and Lady Olenna Tyrell. She is going to take Joffrey into the bedroom and do things for her and to her that he can't even imagine right now. It will be a long, long time before she has to worry about a cross word from him, let alone a beating. By then, of course, she will have delivered an heir or two, or three, to the Iron Throne and they can get rid of Joffrey at any time, privately and made to look like an accident, regardless of whether he is harming Margy or not. Then, Margaery gets to rule is Queen Regent for the next decade or more, which is a far better outcome than having to wait five years for Tommen to even consummate, and even then she only winds up as his consort with no real power of her own.

So any way you look at it, Joffrey's death is a huge setback for the Tyrells, and might even scotch their goal of getting the Iron Throne altogether. And all this for what? Just so Margaery can avoid a few bruises and a black eyes? Plenty of queens have suffered far worse for the their crowns.

And this whole idea that Joffrey is going to treat Margaery like he treated Sansa is ludicrous as well. Joffrey doesn't just go around beating up highborn maidens on a whim. What happened to Sansa happened to her for reasons that are unique to Sansa. First, they have a history together where she saw him humiliate himself on the Trident and then is constantly needling him and correcting him in public. Second, she is utterly alone in the capital, with no family, no guards, no army to protect her. And finally, her family is in open rebellion to the crown and her brother is winning battles in the westerlands, killing Lannisters on Lannister soil. Sansa may be his betrothed, but she is also a hostage, and this is what you do with hostages. If Balon Greyjoy had risen up again, no one would call Ned a mad tyrant if he abused or even executed Theon. That is what he was there for.

So sorry, but this is just another excuse for the wine that falls flat upon even the most rudimentary reading. Margaery is in absolutely no danger from Joffrey, there is no reason to think she will be any time soon, and the Tyrells make out far, far better by letting her bear Joffrey's children and then murdering him -- and this will be far, far easier and less risky than poisoning his giant golden chalice -- which the Tyrells specifically gave to him to share with Margaery -- directly in front of no less than a thousand witnesses.

 

ETA: They have to kill Tyrion here and now because with him alive Sansa is no good to anybody, and they need the diversion to get her out of the capital. They cannot kill him at any time before or after because they do not have any of their "trusted servants" on his staff, and Lady Olenna and pretty much all the rest of the Tyrells will be leaving right after the wedding. And it won't be long before Tyrion and Sansa travel north to take their places as Lord and Lady of Winterfell. It has to be done now, and Tyrion must be the target. 

[Hugorfonics]

2 hours ago, Agnessa Schizoid said:

What a bizarre argument.

Its a bizarre book

2 hours ago, Agnessa Schizoid said:

Margaery is about to be married off to sadistic psychopath whether she wants it or not, she sees him humiliating his uncle and can imagine what will happen to her if she displeases him.

Thats why Loras was put in the KG, why else would he join?

2 hours ago, Agnessa Schizoid said:

For Roslin her marriage to Edmure is a dream come true, a once in a lifetime opportunity to  get decent hustand and get away from Twins, where majority of offsprings and women especially are given as much respect as cattle. Only she won't become the Lady of Riverrun because her wedding is about to be turned into bloodbath.  

Why would Roslin think Tully is decent?

3 hours ago, Agnessa Schizoid said:

Btw, I was an excellent liar even as a child. My own mother couldn't tell if I am lying or not. Some people are just good actors. You believe in what you're saying in the moment so it's convincing. More relevantly, we'll soon see Sansa lying pretty convincingly under duress.

Alright Costanza, Marge put on a show that Penny would envy. Where did she learn how to do that, from Mercys acting coach? She certainly didnt learn how to master politics from her grandma, as she later stumbles into Cerseis traps faster then you can say Ned Stark

Sansa can lie, school of hard knocks. Give Joff the wrong (honest) answer and she gets a knuckle sandwhich, on white. 

3 hours ago, Agnessa Schizoid said:

ETA: If Tyrells didn't plan to kill Joffrey, it would be beyond moronic for them to use such an important and triumphant moment as Marge wedding into royal family to kill relatively unimportant guy like Tyrion, who can be killed at any time. Joffrey is harder to get to however and it's their last chance to do it before Marge becomes "spoiled goods". 

The plan was to abduct Sansa. Petyr (and Tyrell) desperately wants her (and wants her single) and needs the castle in confusion to do it. That's why it had to be at Joffs wedding and had to be Tyrion

[Colonel Green]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And yet Sansa is not even married by then, and there is no reason to think that she would be. So you are saying that LF planned to marry her to Tyrion, who is supposedly dead at this point, only so he can then complicate his own plan of just killing Joffrey and sneaking away with virgin Sansa, to instead have this convoluted mess with a dwarf joust and giant chalice in order to kill Joff, frame Tyrion and then get a widowed, soiled Sansa instead?

No, I'm not saying that, and I don't know where you got that idea.

Sansa was not supposed to be married to Tyrion in the initial version of this plan.  That only happened because Littlefinger got wind of the Tyrell's ploy to marry Sansa to Willas, and had to foil it by blowing the whistle to Tywin.

[Colonel Green]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Thats why Loras was put in the KG, why else would he join?

That's why Mace put Loras in the Kingsguard.  As more perceptive people note, Loras killing Joffrey in retaliation for his eventual abuse of Margaery will provoke a civil war.

[kissdbyfire]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

That must have been it then. The board kicked off all the images that exceeded the new data cap.

Yup, makes sense. As to the rest, care to make a wager? 

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

That's why Mace put Loras in the Kingsguard.  As more perceptive people note, Loras killing Joffrey in retaliation for his eventual abuse of Margaery will provoke a civil war.

More perceptive people? You mean Littlefinger. Hes a liar. He lies all the time to Sansa

[Colonel Green]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

More perceptive people? You mean Littlefinger. Hes a liar. He lies all the time to Sansa

GRRM has Sansa figure out that Loras being in the Kingsguard is a ticking time bomb, and be confused as to why Margaery doesn't seem to see this, and then dismisses her insight on the basis that Margaery and co. must have figured things out better than her.

Which we then learn is true, because as Littlefinger (wholly unaware of Sansa's prior deductions) spells out the exact same observation.

This is meant to illustrate to the audience that Sansa can see things the way that experienced operators like Littlefinger and Olenna Tyrell do.

[Hugorfonics]

31 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

GRRM has Sansa figure out that Loras being in the Kingsguard is a ticking time bomb, and be confused as to why Margaery doesn't seem to see this, and then dismisses her insight on the basis that Margaery and co. must have figured things out better than her.

Yes, Sansa is smarter then Tyrell. She thinks they have it all figured out but they dont

32 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Which we then learn is true, because as Littlefinger (wholly unaware of Sansa's prior deductions) spells out the exact same observation.

The very fact that Petyr tells us this is a major red flag

Quote

"Why does a bear shit in the woods?" he demanded. "Because it is his nature. Lying comes as easily as breathing to a man like Littlefinger. You ought to know that, you of all people."

And Cat, just like Tyrell, is not as gifted as Sansa. 

Quote

He is serving me lies as well, Sansa realized. They were comforting lies, though, and she thought them kindly meant. A lie is not so bad if it is kindly meant. If only she believed them . . .

Petyr tried to kill Tyrion, he failed. When Sansa asked why Joff, he lied, a pretty obvious one at that. So he came up with other lies to build upon that lie. Thats how lies work

 

So, you think Mace is in the dark about the PW, but not Marge? 

[Ygrain]

14 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Olyver fought and learned from Robb, him and a few choice others were exceptions, all other Freys were accessory to murder. 

Two out of the three exceptions we are presented with are Roslin's brothers of the same mother. Way better, and closer, role models for Roslin, than old Walder (to whom we yet have to see any of his children show something like affection).

14 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

So Robb didnt just insult Roslin, but all of her sisters and her house as well

And they are supposed to havea hive mind, unable of individual thought and assessment? We don't know about Roslin much but she seems like a decent person. - BTW, the Fair Walda is Roslin's senior only by 1-2 years, the Fat Walda is actually younger than Roslin. Both are accessory to mass murder and play their roles without a slip, or conscience.

14 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Im not a teacher but yea, teenagers lie. I remember my HS plays though, not stellar acting lol. Kids lie just not always convincingly, especially when its high treason at the most public event in the realm

I've been a secondary teacher for almost twenty years. Some kids shake and break when lying, others smile stupidly. Yet others remain perfectly calm and just lie and lie, and if you have no proof one way or the other, you just cannot tell if they are lying or not.

 

3 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Yes, Sansa is smarter then Tyrell. She thinks they have it all figured out but they dont

The very fact that Petyr tells us this is a major red flag

How about actually looking at the facts instead of dismissing them because LF?

Loras is a known hothead. He finds out his sister is being abused by the little shit, who, given his "sweet" nature, has insulted Loras by then a couple of times.  What will Loras do, how will the Lannisters and Tyrells respond? Do you really think that Loras will put his KG vows above his hot temper and love for his sister? If he stands guard before the door and hear Marge scream like Jaime heard Rhaella, he will burst inside and kill the shit on the spot, or die trying, and then there is war.

And as for Mace not figuring it out... what about lord pufffish strikes you as particularly bright?

 

 

[Kaelthas]

12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If they take Sansa and leave Tyrion alive, then Tyrion remains Lord Regent of Winterfell regardless of where Sansa is or who has her.

That is true from a purely legalistic point of view, but medieval Loyalty doesn't work this way. The northern lords are loyal to the Starks. The fact that Tyrion has been married to Sansa for a short time won't mean anything to them. And the rumors about the marriage not having been consummated, along with the utter absence of contradicting evidence, gives them all the pretext they need to consider Tyrions claim to the north null and void (if they even need a pretext).

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

No, I'm not saying that, and I don't know where you got that idea.

Sansa was not supposed to be married to Tyrion in the initial version of this plan.  That only happened because Littlefinger got wind of the Tyrell's ploy to marry Sansa to Willas, and had to foil it by blowing the whistle to Tywin.

Right. The whole point of the post you were responding to was the idea that LF had the entire plan all charted out when he gave Sansa the hairnet -- Joffrey as the target, Lady O taking the poison, Tyrion as the fall guy, etc. But he couldn't have because Sansa wasn't married yet and Tyrion was presumed dead. So obviously, the hairnet was another example of him planting the seeds and waiting for the fruit to ripen.

And given Dontos' other statement at the time that Sansa will escape after the feast while half the court is helping Joffrey bed his bride, the only conclusion we can reach here is that Joffrey was not the target at that time. And if we go back even further, to when LF first made contact with Sansa through Dontos, Margaery was still married to Renly, so Lady Olenna could not have been part of the plot when LF got this ball rolling.

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yup, makes sense. As to the rest, care to make a wager? 

Bragging rights.

But you can win right now and show me anything in the text that even hints that, say, Cressen's wine was more poisoned, or that Joffrey's throat muscles are stronger, or that Lady Olenna is powerless to her son's overbearing personality. Give me one thing that verifies any of this beyond the mere fact that Lady Olenna says so therefore it must be true.

[John Suburbs]

6 hours ago, Kaelthas said:

That is true from a purely legalistic point of view, but medieval Loyalty doesn't work this way. The northern lords are loyal to the Starks. The fact that Tyrion has been married to Sansa for a short time won't mean anything to them. And the rumors about the marriage not having been consummated, along with the utter absence of contradicting evidence, gives them all the pretext they need to consider Tyrions claim to the north null and void (if they even need a pretext).

Yes, his ability to actually rule in Winterfell is weaker, but there are two things to note:

First, this is true with or without Sansa.

Second, this is only true because the northern lords have not yet been brought to heel. So Tyrion may cool his heels in KL for a little while Roose Bolton puts things in order (because no one expected Stannis to attack in the north), but once his son is old enough to travel, and all resistance to the Iron Throne is removed in the north, he can easily be installed as the new lord, bringing hundreds, if not thousands, of Lannister men to Winterfell and the surrounding area, restaffing the castle with Lannister servants, and bringing the entire region under Lannister dominance. Then his son, who will be seen as the only legitimate Stark in the north -- given that all of Ned's other children are dead or presumed dead -- will carry on in that role, giving Casterly Rock the same sway over House Stark that the Tyrells have over the Hightowers and Redwynes. This, along with the riverlands, stormlands, crownlands and Dorne, creates a power bloc cemented by marriage, which can be reinforced generation after generation.

This is how it's done, and this is the major concern that Lady O has at this point because it means Casterly Rock will eclipse the traditional hegemonic power that Highgarden has held for the past 7,000 years, at least. This is far more concerning than maybe, someday, Margaery will get a black eye from Joffrey. That's kids stuff. I'm sure Lady O has ordered far worse than that in her own dungeons. And like I said, there is plenty of time to get rid of Joffrey if and when he becomes a problem, or even if he doesn't. Then Margaery gets to rule outright as Queen Regent, which is a much better prospect than serving as Tommen's consort five years from now. Any way you look at it Joffrey alive is a win-win for the Tyrells, as is Tyrion dead. Joffrey dead is a huge setback, and Tyrion merely framed is, as we saw, an iffy prospect at best.

[Colonel Green]

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Right. The whole point of the post you were responding to was the idea that LF had the entire plan all charted out when he gave Sansa the hairnet -- Joffrey as the target, Lady O taking the poison, Tyrion as the fall guy, etc. But he couldn't have because Sansa wasn't married yet and Tyrion was presumed dead. So obviously, the hairnet was another example of him planting the seeds and waiting for the fruit to ripen.

And given Dontos' other statement at the time that Sansa will escape after the feast while half the court is helping Joffrey bed his bride, the only conclusion we can reach here is that Joffrey was not the target at that time. And if we go back even further, to when LF first made contact with Sansa through Dontos, Margaery was still married to Renly, so Lady Olenna could not have been part of the plot when LF got this ball rolling.

It's canon that all the specifics of the escape weren't worked out until she got the hairnet at the end of ACOK.

That's wholly different from what you're suggesting, that Littlefinger gave Sansa a poisoned hairnet with no idea who it was going to be used on, since Dontos' speech clearly indicates (in retrospect) who the target was.  You claimed that the plan changed because Dontos doesn't mention escaping mid-feast, but that's obviously because Sansa wasn't told in advance that Joffrey was going to be poisoned.

There was a complication of the plan from this point onward, that being Sansa being married to Tyrion, but that only happened because the Tyrells tried to plan to marry Sansa to Willas, unknowingly disrupting Littlefinger's plans to have her escape, and after this detail was relayed to Dontos Littlefinger had to foil it.

23 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

This is how it's done, and this is the major concern that Lady O has at this point because it means Casterly Rock will eclipse the traditional hegemonic power that Highgarden has held for the past 7,000 years, at least.

This is a good example of how you have to completely rewrite the text of the novels to support your theory.

There is no basis for the idea that Highgarden is a traditional hegemon or that the Tyrells are overwhelmingly fixated on maintaining this status against the Lannisters (if they were that concerned about the Lannisters, they needn't have backed them in the first place).  The Reach was certainly the largest kingdom in the pre-Conquest period, but it was not hegemonic (indeed, the pre-Conquest kingdoms were largely static, unrealistically so).  And it certainly hasn't been in the Targaryen period -- post-Rebellion, in particular, they seem to have been on the margins, which informs why Mace and co. are angling for a splashy marriage for Margaery.

What the text does tell us is that they are concerned about Joffrey.  And we know they have reason to.

14 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Yes, Sansa is smarter then Tyrell. She thinks they have it all figured out but they dont

Er, no, they do have it figured out, that's the point.  She has accurately figured out the same thing that they do.

Quote

The very fact that Petyr tells us this is a major red flag

Reflexively disbelieving everything he says is every bit as silly as reflexively believing everything he says.  And in this case, what he says has an enormous amount of independent proofs (most of them known to the reader but not to Sansa since they come from different POVs; indeed, for an event carried out by third parties, we actually have quite a lot of verification for the events of the Purple Wedding).

Quote

Petyr tried to kill Tyrion, he failed. When Sansa asked why Joff, he lied, a pretty obvious one at that. So he came up with other lies to build upon that lie. Thats how lies work

Since Tyrion had been arrested for treason and was awaiting trial at that point, as per the plan, Littlefinger had not failed at that point.  The plan only failed when he escaped.

Moreover, Littlefinger knew Joffrey was dead without being told about it, which makes it crystal clear that Joffrey was the target of the poison.  And he was too far away to hear the bells (the most common fix people offer for how he could have figured this out).

 

Quote

So, you think Mace is in the dark about the PW, but not Marge?

Yes, Margaery's involvement is quite obvious from the text.

[Kaelthas]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, his ability to actually rule in Winterfell is weaker, but there are two things to note:

First, this is true with or without Sansa.

Second, this is only true because the northern lords have not yet been brought to heel. So Tyrion may cool his heels in KL for a little while Roose Bolton puts things in order (because no one expected Stannis to attack in the north), but once his son is old enough to travel, and all resistance to the Iron Throne is removed in the north, he can easily be installed as the new lord, bringing hundreds, if not thousands, of Lannister men to Winterfell and the surrounding area, restaffing the castle with Lannister servants, and bringing the entire region under Lannister dominance. Then his son, who will be seen as the only legitimate Stark in the north -- given that all of Ned's other children are dead or presumed dead -- will carry on in that role, giving Casterly Rock the same sway over House Stark that the Tyrells have over the Hightowers and Redwynes. This, along with the riverlands, stormlands, crownlands and Dorne, creates a power bloc cemented by marriage, which can be reinforced generation after generation.

This is how it's done, and this is the major concern that Lady O has at this point because it means Casterly Rock will eclipse the traditional hegemonic power that Highgarden has held for the past 7,000 years, at least. This is far more concerning than maybe, someday, Margaery will get a black eye from Joffrey. That's kids stuff. I'm sure Lady O has ordered far worse than that in her own dungeons. And like I said, there is plenty of time to get rid of Joffrey if and when he becomes a problem, or even if he doesn't. Then Margaery gets to rule outright as Queen Regent, which is a much better prospect than serving as Tommen's consort five years from now. Any way you look at it Joffrey alive is a win-win for the Tyrells, as is Tyrion dead. Joffrey dead is a huge setback, and Tyrion merely framed is, as we saw, an iffy prospect at best.

A few years of cooling down won't suffice. The north hates the Lannisters for murdering Eddard and Rob. Ruling the north will be a rough ride for Tyrion even with Sansa at his side. Without her-  think of all the the trouble Littlefinger has ruling the Vale, and multiply that by one hundred (the Lords of the Vale did not hate LF before).

Of course, the Lannisters can always rule the North by force (at the risk of getting backstabbed, should the opportunity arise). And over the span of several decades they might even gain some Loyalty.

But the fact that Tyrion was married to Sansa for a short time will not help the Lannisters much with that.

Sansa is the crucial Figure, Tyrion is of little consequence.

 

[Hugorfonics]

14 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Two out of the three exceptions we are presented with are Roslin's brothers of the same mother. Way better, and closer, role models for Roslin, than old Walder (to whom we yet have to see any of his children show something like affection).

We dont see old Walder as not having affection though. If anything hes what holds his family together.

Roslins brothers dont want to see her becoming a laughing stock to the realm. Roslin will forever be associated with infamy from now on.

14 hours ago, Ygrain said:

And they are supposed to havea hive mind, unable of individual thought and assessment? We don't know about Roslin much but she seems like a decent person. - BTW, the Fair Walda is Roslin's senior only by 1-2 years, the Fat Walda is actually younger than Roslin. Both are accessory to mass murder and play their roles without a slip, or conscience.

Waldas are not the center of attention like Roslin was. Theyre like extras for Roslins one man show

14 hours ago, Ygrain said:

I've been a secondary teacher for almost twenty years. Some kids shake and break when lying, others smile stupidly. Yet others remain perfectly calm and just lie and lie, and if you have no proof one way or the other, you just cannot tell if they are lying or not.

I still think when high treason and weddings turned murderous are different stakes then what your used to

14 hours ago, Ygrain said:

How about actually looking at the facts instead of dismissing them because LF?

Nu-uh. Petyr twists facts. Its fucking LF!

14 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Loras is a known hothead. He finds out his sister is being abused by the little shit, who, given his "sweet" nature, has insulted Loras by then a couple of times.  What will Loras do, how will the Lannisters and Tyrells respond? Do you really think that Loras will put his KG vows above his hot temper and love for his sister? If he stands guard before the door and hear Marge scream like Jaime heard Rhaella, he will burst inside and kill the shit on the spot, or die trying, and then there is war.

Yes it's possible shit can go bad, Sansa certainly thought so and LF fronts like thats his whole reason, but its just a possibility.

Like, Jaime aint kill Robert. The rapist/abuser

14 hours ago, Ygrain said:

And as for Mace not figuring it out... what about lord pufffish strikes you as particularly bright?

Not a damn thing. Hes like his daughter

4 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Er, no, they do have it figured out, that's the point.  She has accurately figured out the same thing that they do.

If asoiaf has taught me anything its not to put faith in Tyrell intelligence

4 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Reflexively disbelieving everything he says is every bit as silly as reflexively believing everything he says.  And in this case, what he says has an enormous amount of independent proofs (most of them known to the reader but not to Sansa since they come from different POVs; indeed, for an event carried out by third parties, we actually have quite a lot of verification for the events of the Purple Wedding).

Although I also learned to never trust Petyr. Call it silly if you want, I call it being rationale. Petyr gives proof, its why his lies carry substance. 

Imps knife was his, ask Varys

Jon died from Cersei, check out the book hes reading and brothels he frequents.

Lysa was fucking nuts, look at her.

Marillion has no fingers just look at him!

Or the Lord Declarant will stand down, look at his lack of army.

Pete lies, all the fucking time about practically everything

4 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Since Tyrion had been arrested for treason and was awaiting trial at that point, as per the plan, Littlefinger had not failed at that point.  The plan only failed when he escaped.

Yet he told Sansa Tyrion was executed. Lying on behalf of his plan that didnt fail

 

4 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Moreover, Littlefinger knew Joffrey was dead without being told about it, which makes it crystal clear that Joffrey was the target of the poison.  And he was too far away to hear the bells (the most common fix people offer for how he could have figured this out).

Why do you think he was too far? The bells certainly werent as loud as it was in the Red Keep, but Petyr was "not far" from KL and sound travels over water

4 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Yes, Margaery's involvement is quite obvious from the text.

Um, but Mace was not? What about mama dukes? She was there when Sansa told thr truth of Joff, why wouldnt she report the info to her lord husband?

(Also I dont see how you can use the word "obvious". She was drinking from the same chalice. You want to Houston Astro her, bet. But that requires gymnastics, its clearly not obvious)

[Frey family reunion]

On 4/30/2020 at 1:20 PM, Kaelthas said:

It doesn't make that much sense for the Tyrells to kill Tyrion. The critical part in denying The Lannisters the North is abducting (or killing) Sansa.

If Tyrion gets killed, the Lannisters can just marry her to someone else- someone who will actually consume the marriage, with a good chance that Sansa will get moved to Casterly Rock, and out of the Tyrells range forever.

And even if the Tyrells had secured Sansa, killing Tyrion wouldn't have been much of a Priority. First, because there are rumors about the marriage not having been consummated, and thus null and void. Second, because there would be no chance for the Tyrells to marry Sansa in the the in the near-to mid future without pissing of the Lannisters big time.

 

By the way, I agree with everything Agnessa S. said above.

The Tyrells were planning on marrying Sansa to Willas up until the Lannisters married Sansa to Tyrion.  Olenna was still talking to Sansa about bringing her to Highgarden right up until the time of the wedding feast.  My guess is, the plan was that it would appear that Tyrion choked on the pie.  And everyone surrounding Tyrion were Tyrells.  They would be the first to come to his "aid".  Doubtful that too many questions would be asked because Tyrion isn't even terribly popular among his own family (save Jaime).  

The problem was Joffrey grabbed the pie meant for Tyrion, and all hell broke loose, especially when Cersei openly accused Tyrion of poisoning Joffrey.

But probably the death knell for the wine theory, is that the dullard Boros Blount believes it had to be the wine:

Quote

“You are certain it was the wine that was poisoned?”
“What else?” said Ser Boros Blount. “The Imp emptied the dregs on the floor. Why, but to spill the wine that might have proved him guilty?”

 

[Colonel Green]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Although I also learned to never trust Petyr. Call it silly if you want, I call it being rationale. Petyr gives proof, its why his lies carry substance. 

It's not a question of evidence that he gives, it's the things he says being independently verified in other POVs.

He says he hired the jousting dwarves, which we know to be true because of Penny's testimony in Tyrion's POV.

He says that the poison was in Sansa's hairnet, which we know to be true because of the Ghost of High Heart's vision in Arya's POV.

He says that someone removed the poison from Sansa's hairnet at the feast, which we know to be true because of Sansa's own POV and which Littlefinger couldn't have known.

He knew Joffrey was dead when there wasn't any way he could know that if it wasn't part of the plan.

And his observations as to the political situation line up with Sansa's own observations that she had earlier disregarded and which Littlefinger himself cannot know about.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Yet he told Sansa Tyrion was executed. Lying on behalf of his plan that didnt fail

No he didn't?  He said he would be executed, which he would have been if Varys and Jaime hadn't subsequently freed him.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Why do you think he was too far? The bells certainly werent as loud as it was in the Red Keep, but Petyr was "not far" from KL and sound travels over water

Because the text tells us as much:

The shore fell away, the fog grew thicker, the sound of the bells began to fade.  Finally even the lights were gone, lost somewhere behind them.  They were out in Blackwater Bay, and the world shrank to dark water, blowing mist, and their silent companion stooped over the oars.

And then the rest was "rowing, rowing, rowing", as Sansa says and then by the time they get to the ship dawn is reaching.

Littlefinger's ship is far, far outside audible range of the city.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Um, but Mace was not? What about mama dukes? She was there when Sansa told thr truth of Joff, why wouldnt she report the info to her lord husband?

There's no indication Mace was (the plan seems to be an end-run around him).  Margaery's mother (if that's who you're referring to) was not party to the conversation about Joffrey, as far as we know, that was Olenna, Sansa and Margaery in a huddle.  She might nevertheless have been in on it, and she wouldn't say anything for the same reason his mother and daughter wouldn't say anything.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

(Also I dont see how you can use the word "obvious". She was drinking from the same chalice. 

That's precisely why it's obvious.  Well, that and her behaviour in the first two Sansa chapters.

[Hugorfonics]

 

36 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

It's not a question of evidence that he gives, it's the things he says being independently verified in other POVs.

And in Neds pov its clear that Cersei killed Jon. Stannis too thought the same, noting how Jon died when Stannis came to him with suspicions

36 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

No he didn't? 

.

Littlefinger and Lord Petyr looked so very much alike. She would have fled them both, perhaps, but there was nowhere for her to go. Winterfell was burned and desolate, Bran and Rickon dead and cold. Robb had been betrayed and murdered at the Twins, along with their lady mother. Tyrion had been put to death for killing Joffrey, and if she ever returned to King's Landing the queen would have her head as well.

36 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Because the text tells us as much:

The shore fell away, the fog grew thicker, the sound of the bells began to fade.  Finally even the lights were gone, lost somewhere behind them.  They were out in Blackwater Bay, and the world shrank to dark water, blowing mist, and their silent companion stooped over the oars.

And then the rest was "rowing, rowing, rowing", as Sansa says and then by the time they get to the ship dawn is reaching.

Littlefinger's ship is far, far outside audible range of the city.

It says began to fade, not fade. And you conveniently left out the middle of the text when they say "not far" and "sound carries over water"

39 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

There's no indication Mace was (the plan seems to be an end-run around him).  Margaery's mother (if that's who you're referring to) was not party to the conversation about Joffrey, as far as we know, that was Olenna, Sansa and Margaery in a huddle.  She might nevertheless have been in on it, and she wouldn't say anything for the same reason his mother and daughter wouldn't say anything.

Which is....?