The Purple Wedding, the pie or the wine?

[Colonel Green]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

So, Margaery gets Tommen, but since Tommen is still under the control of his mother, Cersei, this means that Margaery now has to compete with Cersei.  

 

50 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

And if Joffrey happens to meet an unfortunate end, shortly thereafter, then Margaery becomes the mother to the King (or perhaps even the Queen).  And Cersei's power shifts to Margaery.

Cersei is not a real factor in the Tyrells' calculations at that point.  She has no meaningful power (indeed, Tywin is trying to marry her off and ship her out of KL around this point, so much has her stock dwindled).

Tywin is the head of the government, and will be for the foreseeable future.  The Tyrells were immediately rewarded with three seats on the Small Council after the Blackwater, after Tyrion's attainder Mace had secured a fourth one (the vacant Master of Coin's position) at the time of Tywin's death, and whenever Pycelle eventually died they appeared to have another Tyrell in line to take that job too.  They were accruing more power, consistently, and would have been well-situated for the future with Tywin in charge, Joffrey gone and not rocking the boat, and the more placid Tommen to ingratiate themselves with.

The thing that ended up destabilizing this is Tywin's assassination, which wasn't in anybody's plans (other than Varys').

[Seams]

On 5/2/2020 at 9:23 AM, Walda said:

The lemon cream on the pie, which was put in front of Sansa (a fact that neither her drunk ex-fiance or her drunk husband noticed.) 

... I am pretty sure Shae was a Baelish plant, and notice how she repeatedly attempted to get Tyrion to let her into the feast. She did Sansa's hair, so it was in her power to remove the "black amethyst" from Sansa's hair net.

...

I am not really sure about who was really behind the poison, or why they wanted to do it then, or even who they wanted to do it to. Maybe Joffrey was attempting to alert Tyrion to something or someone behind him. Maybe the dog sniffing at Joffrey is significant. There is an outside chance the king just choked.

I think you and I are on the same wavelength, trying to look at details leading up to the wedding feast, although we may not agree on interpretations of those clues.

I do think there's a strong possibility that Shae took the amethyst from Sansa's hair net. When Sansa describes Lady Olenna fussing and fiddling with her hair, the focus is entirely on tucking away loose strands of Sansa's hair as she expresses her sympathy about the death of Robb Stark. Based on the little I know of GRRM's use of literary irony and wordplay, Lady Olenna is handling Stark "hair" as a symbol of the murdered Stark "heir" who is the subject of discussion. Granted, she also speaks of the need to refrain from murdering men at weddings and that is ironic, given Joffrey's imminent fate. It's possible that Lady Olenna is saying the opposite of what she means as she removes an amethyst from the hair net. I don't think that is GRRM's style, though. Instead of having a character lie, he prefers to have them say something directly but to disguise the point so we have to discover it later. (See discussion of the the dwarf pennies dialogue, below.)

I may be wrong, but I think GRRM would throw into the Olenna dialogue a clue about the amethyst - a reference to a plum or indigo (the colors of the amethysts or the bottle that contains the Strangler poison) or he would somehow work in a reference to a seed or crystal, which is the way the Strangler poison was described in the Cressen death scene. It's possible I just don't know enough about GRRM's hidden clues to see some of them yet, but I do not detect the literary hints I would expect in the Lady Olenna interaction that would lead us to Joffrey's demise.

(We do get an interesting remark from Olenna that Tyrion should be collecting dwarf pennies and Tyrion replies that he leaves that work to others. Since we later learn that one of the dwarf jousters is named Penny, there may be a hidden reference here to the jousting match and encouragement to Tyrion to play an active role, which could foreshadow that Olenna agrees with Joffrey's upcoming wish that Tyrion should ride the pig. Or it could be a hint from Olenna to Tyrion that he should go off on an Odyssey, which is what he does when he meets up again with Penny the mummer.)

A page earlier, however, we see Shae handling Sansa's hairnet as she helps her to dress for the feast. As soon as Tyrion finishes describing that hairnet interaction, Shae wistfully asks Sansa whether she (Shae) could serve at the feast so she could see the pigeons fly out of the pie. This strikes me as a stronger link between the hairnet and the killer pie, although I guess people could argue that either or both hairnet conversation(s) is/are equally incriminating.

The lemon cream is significant, for sure. you say that the lemon cream and/or the pie was placed in front of Sansa, but I see only this mention of the lemon cream:

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A serving man placed a slice of hot pigeon pie in front of Tyrion and covered it with a spoon of lemon cream.

And less than half a page away, we are told that the pie eaten by Joffrey was Tyrion's pie:

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"My uncle hasn't eaten his pigeon pie." Holding the chalice one-handed, Joff jammed his other into Tyrion's pie. "It's ill luck not to eat the pie," he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon.

Nothing about proximity to Sansa.

It's important that the pie is Tyrion's pie because (surprise!) I think there is a larger symbolism at work. This is an angle I have puzzled over in the past but I didn't have a clear enough idea about the connection: Pigs and PIGeons.

We know that GRRM often puts boars at the deaths of kings: Robert's grave hunting injury is inflicted by a wild boar, there is a lot of boar's head symbolism at the Red Wedding, Baraq is nearby with his skinchanged boar when Jon Snow is attacked at Castle Black, etc. But I wasn't sure whether pigs and boars could both serve as harbinger's of a king's death. The pig / pigeon connection tells me that pigs can sometimes substitute for boars when GRRM needs to put a king to death.

Joffrey wanted Tyrion to be his champion and ride the pig. Tyrion said he would only do it if Joffrey would ride the dog so Tyrion could defeat him. So Tyrion didn't outright refuse to ride the pig, but Joffrey didn't get the champion he sought. Based on the tourneys and trials by combat we have seen in ASOIAF, we know that, if you can't get someone to ride or fight for you, you have to either forfeit or do it yourself.

When Joffrey jams his hand into Tyrion's pigeon pie, the pig / pigeon wordplay may tell us that it is the logical next step after failing to recruit a champion to ride the pig: Joffrey has to "defend the honor of [his] realm" without Tyrion's help.

Joffrey "riding" the pig(eon) might also explain a couple other symbolism mysteries that have been in the back of my mind: there are many jousting-related gifts among Joffrey's groom gifts, but no one gives him a horse. That struck me as a deliberate omission by the author. If we can wrap our minds around the pig / pigeon pie equation, we might say that Joffrey had to "ride" the pig / pigeon pie, filling the gap where it seemed like a horse should have been.

Another symbolism mystery was Tommen at Joffrey's name day tourney being knocked off his pony by the hay-filled jousting dummy. I had put this on a back burner, thinking that it might foreshadow something in store for Tommen in the last two books. Now I'm wondering if Tommen's jousting "defeat" is a "mini me" hint about Joffrey's death. Since Tommen hits the dummy, causing it to spin around and knock him down, you could argue that he defeats himself at jousting. If Joffrey is unskilled at jousting (he brags but we never see him compete or train), and he tries to get Tyrion to be his champion but is unsuccessful, and he finally resorts to (unskillfully) eating the pigeon pie which leads to his death, the self-defeat of Tommen could have foreshadowed the self-defeating death of Joffrey.

One other small possible hint about Joffrey having to "ride" after failing to find a champion: he and Tyrion climb on the table just before eating the pie. There may be wordplay around "table" and "stable." Stableboys appear at key moments in ASOIAF, including as Arya's first murder and irritating Sansa by leering at her too-tight outgrown dress. Either one of those minor characters could be symbolic versions of Joffrey.

Eventually, of course, Tyrion does ride the pig. But not for Joffrey or (it seems) the realm - he does it to keep the sailors amused so they won't kill him and Penny; Tyrion rides the pig for himself. He is knocked off, but not killed. I suspect this passes for a successful "king" in GRRM's imagination - one who can ride a pig and live to tell about it.

For what it's worth, we have foreshadowing of Tyrion's pig mastery in his first POV in AGoT:

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A servant approached. "Bread," Tyrion told him. " ... Oh, and some bacon. Burn it until it turns black."

...

The bacon crunched when he bit into it. Tyrion chewed thoughtfully for a moment and said, "He thinks that if the boy were going to die, he would have done so already. It has been four days with no change."

Tyrion clearly defeats the pig (in the form of bacon) in that scene and Bran lives. By contrast, Joffrey's death will be very quick.

Could it be that the mark of a rightful monarch is his or her ability to master boars and pigs?

On 5/2/2020 at 9:23 AM, Walda said:

Petyr backs the Tyrell boy against Tywin's henchmen every time. ...

... Interesting how, in this instance, as when Petyr tells Catelyn the dagger is his, Varys guardedly observes the lie, knows it is a lie, but smoothly lets Petyr's dupe accept it at face value.

Petyr claims Dontos was completely his footpad - I don't think he absolutely was.

The Tyrell vs. Lannister jousting bet is very significant. As with jousting matches, in the betting around jousting matches there is symbolism about the Game of Thrones and who will draw closer to the Iron Throne or another worthwhile prize.

Littlefinger lies and says Tyrion bet on Ser Loras and won the knife. Tyrion says he never bets against his family. There is a vague sense that Robert won a bet and got the knife from Littlefinger, but the details are unclear. The best explanation, as I see it, is that the knife started with Littlefinger and that he was very familiar with it (as shown by his knife-throwing skill while talking to Catelyn at the brothel) but it may or may not have left his possession and passed through other hands before the catspaw (another stable boy) used it in Bran's bedchamber.

As for Varys, there is this dialogue while Catelyn, Ned and Littlefinger are at the brothel, early in AGoT:

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... Catelyn said. " ... Varys has ways of learning things that no man could know. He has some dark art, Ned, I swear it."

"He has spies, that is well known," Ned said, dismissive.

"It is more than that," Catelyn insisted. "Ser Rodrick spoke to Ser Aron Santagar in all secrecy, yet somehow the Spider knew of their conversation. I fear that man."

Littlefinger smiled. "Leave Lord Varys to me, sweet lady. If you wil permit me a small obscenity -- and where better for it than here -- I hold the man's balls in the palm of my hand." He cupped his fingers, smiling. "Or would, if he were a man, or had any balls. You see, if the pie is opened, the birds begin to sing, and Varys would not like that. Were I you, I would worry more about the Lannisters and less about the eunuch."

In just a few lines, we have wordplay tying spies to pies, discussion of the spy network working for Varys that we will come to know as the "little birds," and an allusion to the kind of pie filled with living birds that is likely to be set before a king. The reference to Varys as the Spider might also allude to the hairnet that will be among our clues in Joffrey's death. While Varys is a formidable character, the implication is that Littlefinger has some kind of power over Varys. (Blackmail? Some other secret? Is the point that Littlefinger can expose the spy network working for Varys?) Littlefinger wants Catelyn and Ned to believe that he can prevent Varys from undermining Ned's investigation of Jon Arryn's death and the attack by the cat's paw at Winterfell.

Back to Joffrey's wedding feast. Just before they cut open the ceremonial bird pie, Margaery says to Joffrey, "Widow's Wail was not meant for slicing pies." Given the connection between Varys and the bird pie, I still wonder whether there is wordplay implied between "slicing pies" and "Lysine spies."

My only other thought about Varys at this time is a more general question, not necessarily specific to Joffrey's death. In the game of "Dungeons and Dragons," isn't the dungeon master a sort of supervisor of the game? Given that Varys is the supervisor of the dungeons at the Red Keep, is it possible that he plays a sort of master of ceremonies role for the Game of Thrones? This would certainly explain how he knows everything that is going on with all of the players in that game.

I agree that Shae may be a Littlefinger operative, and I also agree that Ser Dontos may have divided loyalties or loyalties unknown to Petyr.

GRRM has not revealed all of the Florian and Jonquil story to us, but I think Dontos is sincere in wanting to help Sansa, above all else. From the Dunk & Egg puppet show, we do learn that Florian slays a dragon. I have explained in other posts that I believe Baelish is a Targaryen descendant (from Elaena, one of the princesses locked in the Maiden Vault) - this is the reason he has the dagger with the dragon bone handle. It is possible that something Ser Dontos has set in motion will lead to the death of Littlefinger. Alternatively, one of his descendants might end up avenging the death of Dontos by taking out Littlefinger at some point. (I love the theory of the Citadel novice Mollender as a possible son of Ser Dontos.)

We also know directly from words spoken by Dontos that he is a fan of Renly. I believe that the Tyrell family carries on the legacy of Renly, given their possession of Margaery and Ser Loras and of Renly's armor worn by Garlan. Ser Loras is the only person who knows where Renly is buried. While I don't see Ser Dontos as a key operative for House Tyrell, their strong connection to Renly would lead me to question any claim that Dontos was loyal to Littlefinger.

[corbon]

48 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

No, Tommen is in fact more under the control of Cersei than Joffrey was.  But the primary consideration is that Margaery can not conceive a child with Tommen and won't be able to for quite a while.  And that's the real problem.

I don't think so. This wasn't as short a term plan as you suggest IMO.

48 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

You have to keep in mind that this is a power play for the Tyrells.  And they are obviously willing to put Margaery in a certain amount of danger to obtain power.  It was risky marrying Margaery to Renly while Renly was openly in warfare with the throne, with really no legal justification for claim.   Margaery could very well have ended up being killed as a traitor to the throne.  Which may have been her fate (Either from the Lannisters or Stannis) had Littlefinger not negotiated the agreement between the Tyrells and the Lannisters to join their defense.

Were they going to kill Renly once he had the throne and Margaery was pregnant? Becasue he is and always would be a Baratheon, not a Tyrell. I don't think so. Their thinking was longer term than that. I think they were content to be the power behind the throne in the short to medium term and  you are reading very wrong notes into this little play.

48 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

So again, the Tyrells put Margaery at risk for a power play.  They may put her in more immediate risk by marrying her to Joffrey,

There's risk (the first plan with Renly adapst to a second plan with Joffrey) and then there is "oh shit, Joffrey is a frikken psychopath" risk (thus needing a third plan, a desperate but workable alternative to the second plan, with Tommen).

48 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

but the plus side, is that she can immediately start to try and get pregnant.  And that's when the Tyrell's power grab happens.  

No, I think there power grab is slower rolling than that and far less naked. But that obviously isn't going to work when they find out what Joffrey is really like.
And then what Cersei is like after once she gets real power. But they didn't fully realise what they were up against until its too late.

Its very hard to predict extreme mis-steps by a reasonably intelligent opponent, whether its Cersei Lannister or Brandon Stark.

 

[Colonel Green]

11 minutes ago, Seams said:

I do think there's a strong possibility that Shae took the amethyst from Sansa's hair net. When Sansa describes Lady Olenna fussing and fiddling with her hair, the focus is entirely on tucking away loose strands of Sansa's hair as she expresses her sympathy about the death of Robb Stark.

Sansa doesn't describe Olenna fiddling with the hairnet.  That's told from Tyrion's POV.

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The lemon cream is significant, for sure.

As I said earlier, lemon cream is yellow.  Try putting a purple dissolving crystal in a hot yellow semi-liquid and see what happens.

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I agree that Shae may be a Littlefinger operative, and I also agree that Ser Dontos may have divided loyalties or loyalties unknown to Petyr.

Shae is not a Littlefinger operative (why would he have sent a random prostitute to hang out with Tywin's army?).  She is a random prostitute who ended up in Tyrion's company.  That's the whole point of the character.  She has no hidden agendas.

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While I don't see Ser Dontos as a key operative for House Tyrell, their strong connection to Renly would lead me to question any claim that Dontos was loyal to Littlefinger.

Dontos may have been more sympathetic to Sansa than Littlefinger framed it (that suits him), but he was, to all evidence, nothing but loyal to Littlefinger's plans.  He thwarted the Tyrells' separate scheme, and if he had wanted to be loyal to Sansa he could have given her additional information that Littlefinger didn't want her to have, but he chose not to do so.

[Walda]

7 hours ago, Seams said:

Nothing about proximity to Sansa.

We know that Cersei arranged the seating so Sansa and Tyrion were on the Tyrell side of the dais, as far from Joffrey as possible. 

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He and Sansa had been seated far to the King's right, beside Ser Garlan Tyrell and his wife, the Lady Leonette. A dozen others sat closer to Joffrey

(ASoS Ch.60 Tyrion)

Sansa's position as the last person on the dais stage-left can be inferred by Tyrion turning away from her to see Margarey, Lady Alerie, and Margarey's entourage.(And, on a table just below the dais, "but as far from the Tyrells as the width of the hall would allow", Ellaria.)

The next time he looks along the dais, he sees the Lannisters, laughing as the dwarf jousters enter.

There is just one slice of pie served hot, and promptly covered with a spoon of lemon cream. @Colonel Green, it is true that lemon cream is yellow, but pigeon meat is a dark purple when cooked, and the juices are semi-liquid when hot. Tyrion observes the pie is hot and the pigeons in it are well cooked.

One of the reasons I believe it wasn't the wine was that "there was still a half-inch of deep purple wine in the bottom of it" after Joffrey had drunk his last draught. 

We know from Cressen's experience that the poison settles in the final dregs of the cup - like Joffrey, Melisandre drank long and deep

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There was only half a swallow of wine remaining when she offered it back to him.

(ACoK, Prologue Cressen)

We know wine is a solvent for the poison, we don't know it is the only solvent. 

I am guessing there will be a spiced wine poisoning in the future, one that involves that "southron heresy" of adding lemon to the spice mix. (It might be that the dried leaf from the Jade sea gives up it's gift as well in a wash of lemons as limes, that honey could do as well as sugar in the water, and that nutmeg and cinnamon are rare spices from the Summer Isles.)

In general, there is a close association between wine and poison, and Arbor Gold is the international choice of poisoners, which seems to slate everything home to the Redwynes until you remember Littlefinger has spent years as a wine factor and merchant, and had been putting the Tyrell army together since he set Renly up with Loras and planned to set Robert up with Margarey. Also, that everything Cersei has done for the defence of Kings Landing or the realm, and a fair bit of what Tyrion and Robert and Eddard and Jon Arryn have done, was in fact done by Littlefinger. 

I notice King Robert took the precaution of drinking beer on the morning of the melee - although he seems to have given up and taken the wine Petyr Baelish had supplied on the hunt. 

It seems to me that Petyr usually kills people slowly, with a poison that rots the belly, and results in the victim getting a big saggy belly, hoarse voice, circles under the eyes, paranoia, bad breath, and generally look bleary and unwell, before the crabs start pinching, or a cut makes the foul blood and stinking bowels detectable. 

I'm thinking that accounts for Jon Arryn and Tywin, Cersei (who got a detox courtesy of Septa Moelle's plain porrige and water) and Boros Blount (who didn't.)

It seems to me that Petyr Baelish had organised almost every poisoning we know of except the poisoning of Strong Belwas. That, I believe, was from the chilled wine administered by Kezmya Pahl, to avenge Oznak, a long and twisty but textually supported line of reasoning, as are the links between Shae and Petyr Baelish - remember, she was not the toothless unwashed drab Tyrion had every reason to expect, but an unusually pretty, clean and witty young woman, that Bronn had taken from a knight, by means of a dagger (well, dirk) to the throat. Bronn. being yet another Baelish 'hidden dagger'. He has them everywhere. All the Antler men, and everyone around Rosby, as well as the Redwynes and the Tyrells, and nearly all the knights and traders of the Vale. 

Baelish has daggers everywhere, and had a lot more to do with the wedding plans than Cersei or Olenna. He organised the singers tourney, the dwarfs, the dancing bear. 

I am guessing the point of the hairnet was not to conceal the poison, but to implicate Sansa was the poisoner. Megga Tyrell was of the opinion that Sansa's heart must have broken when she lost Joffrey's affection to Margarey, and while she is just a silly young girl, both Tyrion and Loras entertain similar surmises. 

The Tyrells would be served by the death of Tyrion, but not so much by Sansa being suspected of killing any Lannister, and not by Sansa fleeing the scene, especially not when she is fleeing for the Eyrie under Lord Baelish's protection.

Tyrion suspects his father of trying to kill him in battle on the Greenfork, but that could just be Tyrion, prickly and alert to any slight, always wanting the approval his father gave Jaime (who seems to wear that particular honour rather lightly - I guess Tyrion never had to choose between his father or his honour).  He blames Tywin for Mandon Moore and Cersei for what he perceives as his inadequate medical care after the battle at Kings Landing, but I think Ser Mandon turned on the field after consulting with Petyr Baelish (Tywin was in the rear, Petyr seems to have been nearer the Tyrell vanguard) and as Ballabar was part of Lord Redwynes retinue, it seems doubtful that Cersei would recommend him to Tyrion's care if Petyr had not thought to recommend the idea to her. 

As to Ballabar being determined to keep Tyrion insensate, I doubt it. It would have been easy enough to kill him, if that were the plan. Harder to keep him alive, to keep the flesh under the plaster clean. Unlike Pycelle with Eddard's leg, there is no infection, and the pain control is adequete. No doubt Ballabar would rather the plaster was kept on longer, so the scar and the opportunities for infection would be smaller, but Tyrion wasn't having it. Frenken was Lady Tanda's maester, and not so good at stopping the infection in her hip. He and the Stokeworths are as much managed by Lord Baelish as the Redwynes and the Lannisters, and Franken had ample opportunity to kill Tyrion, too. I'm guessing if he had been acting under instruction from Lord Baelish rather than Queen Cersei and Lord Tywin, he might have.

Tywin's gloves, and the way he is working with Margarey and Olenna to keep Joffrey away from his uncle (while Petyr's dwarves are clearly bringing about the opposite effect),  Tywin's and Olenna's very collected behaviour when Joffrey is dead - it is not out of character, any more than Cersei's wild accusations, but, like the flautist that stayed to pipe a dirge when the other musicians fled, it could indicate foreknowledge as well as quick wits. It could indicate that they already knew who would be tried for this, and did not fear for their own lives or standing if the true killer was overlooked. Lady Tanda wasn't taking such chances - she got away while she could. Dontos, on the other hand, believed he was part of the murder plot, and was hurrying back to the throne room before he was missed.

Sansa fled (was it she Joffrey was pointing to?), but then, she had been preparing to flee for weeks. Tyrion stayed, knowing that wasn't the smartest move.

One person who ran was Penny. It seems to me the sole purpose for Jorah's slave taking her on as his bitch, and even more remarkably, the abolitionist widow of the waterfront letting him, is that she will reveal something that will blow this cold case wide open and clear the way for Tyrion to take possession of Casterley Rock. There is no point her being at the wedding otherwise. 

Penny has already told Tyrion about meeting Oswell in Pentos. She said Oswald, and Petyr had told Sansa Braavos, but it was clearly Petyr's plan to have the dwarfs at the wedding and to give Joffery the notion that it was his idea, to provoke Tyrion.

I think Petyr was the friend that gave Joff the idea that mercy was for women and as a King he could have Sansa's dad's head.

Would not surprise me if Petyr gave him the idea that Tywin was scared of Arys. Or if Petyr gave him his knowledge of Valyrian steel - the knife that he cut open the cat with. Eddard knew that the only knife Robert carried was the one Jon Arryn had given him as a child. Joff was pretty keen on fighting with steel, but did not seem to have Lion's Tooth at Winterfell, He had it at Darry, after Renly and Barristan had shown up. Renly seems to have learnt of Lions Tooth at Lady's 'trial', and the boy loathes Renly. But Barristan might have brought the prince a present from Lord Baelish, who was busy planning the tourney of the hand, and had previously planned a tourney for Joffrey's birthday.  We know Petyr armed Joffery with the crossbow that he had used to shoot the baby of the poor woman who had got the idea that the Boy King in the Red Keep was giving out bread from ... somewhere (yes, I also believe Petyr Baelish engineered the riots of Kings Landing and every noble and goldcloak that was killed was one Petyr Baelish wanted killed. But that is another long post)

Anyway, if Penny is not Chekhov's dwarf, she is pointless.

[Colonel Green]

1 hour ago, Walda said:

Anyway, if Penny is not Chekhov's dwarf, she is pointless.

Penny is important to Tyrion's characterization in ADWD.

[Walda]

55 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Penny is important to Tyrion's characterization in ADWD.

Please elaborate

[Colonel Green]

Just now, Walda said:

Please elaborate

His interactions with her highlight both his (dwindled) protective instincts, his attitudes towards his disability and the way society treats him, and how class privilege has affected him.

[Frey family reunion]

11 hours ago, corbon said:

Were they going to kill Renly once he had the throne and Margaery was pregnant? Because he is and always would be a Baratheon, not a Tyrell. I don't think so. Their thinking was longer term than that. I think they were content to be the power behind the throne in the short to medium term and  you are reading very wrong notes into this little play.

No, I don't think you're quite understanding my point.  Killing Joffrey isn't the power play.  The power play is having Margaery give birth to the heir to the throne.  Killing Joffrey deals with Joffrey's character and ultimately protecting Margaery and preventing a confrontation between Loras and Joffrey .  As you and others have suggested, Olenna and Margaery probably understand that Joffrey is not well suited to being a long term match for Margaery.  The only dispute I have is the timing of killing Joffrey.

Which is why Sansa's musings are important, and not just the inevitable problem Joffrey poses, but also the idea that Joffrey probably could be restrained for a time.  Time enough for Margaery to become pregnant with the heir to the throne.  The exact way that Cersei ultimately obtains her power (just without the sneaky incest).  

If Joffrey ends up behaving himself, than all is well.  If not, than it appears that the Tyrells are very capable of (at least attempting) to kill someone off and make it look like an accident.  In the meantime, Margaery seems pretty confidant that Loras' protection and her own self-confidence about being able to handle Joffrey will be sufficient.  If the ultimate plan was that Joffrey would be only a temporary problem, I think Margaery seems pretty secure in Loras being around for her protection.  Unlike Sansa who really had no one to step in when the Kingsguards were told to beat her (other than as it turned out the Hound).  Margaery is not in so vulnerable a position.

But Tommen is not a short to medium term wait.  It's a long term wait, and because of that an even greater risk for Margaery.  First, Margaery can be set aside by the Lannisters before she consummates her marriage with Tommen,  Which would be a devastating blow to the Tyrells, Margaery is their only daughter, and I assume that even the fair maid Margaery will start to be seen as damaged goods (and damaged goods getting older) if she has now gone through her third husband.  That's a problematic stigma for the Tyrells.  

But the greater risk is keeping Margaery chaste while she waits for Tommen to come of age.  Which is the scenario we see play out in the books.  Margaery likes her parties and she likes her friends.  Surely the Tyrells would have been aware of this as well.  And even if Margaery is in fact keeping true to Tommen, the appearance of impropriety can be just as bad.  And any infidelity that Margaery commits or is even accused of could be fatal to her.

And finally, keeping Loras around Margaery for a short time is probably doable.  But keeping Loras around Margaery for the length of time it would take Margaery to consummate her marriage to Tommen is impractical.   

 

 

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Correct and it is also apparent that the Strangler was meant to be used on someone while they were drinking and eating.

So if Littlefinger's plan was to to pin Joffrey's killing on Tyrion, thereby ridding himself of Tyrion, then he would not have wanted to use the Strangler.  The Strangler is used when you want people to believe that someone choked on his own food.

And indeed that is what appeared to be the case, up until Cersei accused Tyrion:

 

Exactly. And if you just wanted to remove a potential threat to your Game of Thrones and create a diversion by making it appear they just choked naturally, then the strangler is your perfect choice.

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I agree with everything in your post, except for this bit.  I do think the Tyrells planned on bringing Sansa to Highgarden, but perhaps as early as that night, during the confusion. 

If indeed Littlefinger brought the Tyrells in on his hair net plot he may have also told them that he was going to bring Sansa to Highgarden.

What the Tyrells probably would not have been aware of, is Littlefinger's own plans for Sansa.  Which is why Littlefinger revealed the Tyrell's earlier plan to bring Sansa to Highgarden to the Lannisters. 

Both Littlefinger and Olenna had motives to want Tyrion dead and Sansa to flee King's Landing.  But I think that is where their goals divided.  I think Littlefinger was always planning on bringing Sansa to the Eyrie, while convincing the Tyrells that he would deliver her to Highgarden.

And if the Tyrells had their own plan to get Sansa to Highgarden which did not involve Littlefinger, than my guess is those plans went out the window, when Joffrey was killed as opposed to Tyrion.

 

The Tyrells have no reliable way to get Sansa out of the capital without a little bird seeing. It's unlikely that they know about the secret stairway, so their exit would take them right through the main gate of the Red Keep. Plus, LF has already established contact with Sansa and worked out the escape plan. In order for the Tyrells to get her, someone that she has had no communication with would have to approach her in the confusion and say "come with me." An iffy prospect, especially when they know LF's man, whom Sansa has more reason to trust, will be there doing the same thing.

I think the more likely scenario is that once the Willas plan went bust, Lady O recognized the fact that Sansa was lost to her and it's better to let LF have her than Tywin. She probably suspects LF blew the Willas plan, but in the end she is a practical realist and went with the lesser of two evils. If LF had promised to bring her to Highgarden, I doubt Lady O would have believed him because she is too valuable and both the Fingers and the Eyrie are far less populated locations and the cover story of being LF's natural daughter is better than any story that would explain her sudden arrival at Highgarden. And in the end, Lady O knows LF cannot use Sansa to take Highgarder or Riverrun until the Lannister menace is removed anyway, and dealing with a Littlefinger-led power bloc will be a problem for the next generation.

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I agree. The way I see it is when Tyrion sent Petyr to win Tyrell in acok, there they decided to kill Tyrion. (It has to be then, Tyrion or Joff. And Sansa has to be brought up in the conversation. For one, she wears the hairnet, another reason is if Margery marries Joffrey then who doesn't marry Joffrey? )

Tyrells are Growing Strong, always looking for lunchtime. For them to save KL they want all they can get. 

What would LF want with Sansa anyway? Petyr knows hes getting Harrenhall, does he expect to garrison the largest castle in the world one maid at a time? I dont think anybody short of him and Lysa ever even thought he could have eyes on the Eyrie 

I was thinking like, 2 hours. Dawn can be early, like 4:30. What time was Joff murdered, after midnight no? What course were they on, one of the late ones. We see in Dunk&Egg that the bedding can be rather late 

Also Dontos says "not far" which sounds like 60 min tops

Even two hours is plenty of time.

But the feast starts before dusk, and the courses were coming "one after another in a staggering profusion." It wasn't until Gayleon of Cuy was performing that it became "full night outside the tall windows," and the next act, of course, was the jousting.

So I don't see how this could have been as late as 2:30 a.m. This is fall, after all, and the nights have gotten longer, so I surmise that the murder happened at midnight at the latest and sunrise would have been 6 a.m. at the earliest. So a good six hours at least.

At sea level, you can see up to three miles away, so that's not far. It was likely much farther than this, though, because there was still "rowing, rowing, rowing" after the lights of the city were no longer visible. But even 20 miles is not far, especially when you are trying to calm a frightened girl.

Why would Lady Olenna have wanted to kill Tyrion all the way back at Highgarden? He's not married to Sansa then, doesn't stand to inherit the north, and neither does Sansa for that matter. In fact, she was third on the list at that point. Lady O's motivation to kill Tyrion did not surface until after Bran and Rickon were reported dead, after he had married Sansa and after Robb was killed. That's when LF approached her, after he had orchestrated the events that created her motivation.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Put a purple dissolving crystal in a white/yellow cream and see what happens.

It's a big plot point in AFFC that Margaery still being a virgin speeds her remarriage to Tommen, which is why Cersei is convinced that she lied about it and tries to contrive charges against her on those grounds.

More generally, I don't think it makes sense to wait until Margaery gets pregnant, because you have no idea how long that will take (it's not a situation where they could reliably bank on her getting pregnant immediately), so if you're waiting around for a baby to be conceived (and delivered alive), you might be waiting a good while.

Likewise, there's no real downside to waiting a few years for Tommen once the immediate threat is dealt with.  They've got time, as far as anybody can reasonably reckon.

Moreover, acting now means that they're less likely to be suspected of anything untoward.

No, that's Dontos obscuring that there's going to be an assassination.

That scene, in fact, makes it clear that there was a target and the target was Joffrey:

"Lovelier than you know, sweet child. It's magic, you see. It's justice you hold. It's vengeance for your father."

We (and Sansa) don't know what that means in the moment, but its meaning is crystal clear in retrospect -- Dontos knows, but isn't saying, that they are going to kill Joffrey, who executed Sansa's father.  That's a sign of GRRM's skill at foreshadowing and employing clues.

No, there weren't plenty of options.  Dontos tried to scare her off the Tyrells, but he failed, so he doesn't have any other cards to play.  After meeting Dontos to tell him the escape is off, she stops meeting with him entirely.

No, it's not.  Being the single-largest country is not the same as being a hegemon.  The Reach has not had the power to direct and dominate its neighbours in that manner.  And as I said, it has certainly not been hegemonic under the Targaryens.

And if Lady Olenna was that afraid of Tywin Lannister, it would make more sense to assassinate him.  But they don't do that, because there's no reason to; he's a man they can comfortably do business with.

Killing Tyrion also doesn't even solve the problem you think the Tyrells are obsessed with, because Sansa would just be married to another Lannister.

No, they have plenty of reason to be concerned about Joffrey, because Joffrey is a psychopath and will inevitably turn to violence.  Sansa understands his nature.  She dismisses her own concerns because she doesn't trust her own insights and assumes the Tyrells know better -- which you, bizarrely enough, think we're meant to take at face value, rather than recognizing it's GRRM's narrative irony and demonstration of both Sansa's growth and her lack of self-confidence.  Theme, character, and narrative importance are all vital in GRRM's storytelling, and all those things are wholly absent from the pie theory, which serves no narrative purpose.

I don't forget it at all.  GRRM goes out of his way to show that Littlefinger's boat was nowhere near the harbour.  If he wanted to set up a twist that Littlefinger had heard the bells, he could have had the boat close by and basically no readers would have noticed the difference.  But instead he went the opposite way, which requires you to come up with yet another unsubstantiated workaround.

Put a purple dissolving crystal into a large amount of red wine and see what happens. It turns it "deep purple", easily recognized as tainted. Put it in dark brownish-purplish pigeon pie, however, and it's nearly undetectable.

Lol, it was even less likely that Margaery was a virgin after being Renly's bride for however many weeks or months compared to her not spending a single night with Joffrey. Being a virgin is just for court; nobody truly believed she was pure when she married Joff.

There is no reason to think Margaery won't get pregnant as easily as any other woman. By this logic, they are reasoning that they can't take a chance that it will take too long to bear Joffrey's child, so they are going to wait five years to start taking the same chance on Tommen. And all to prevent a problem that doesn't even exist yet and shows no signs of emerging in the future, and the only consequences Margaery faces if this problem does emerge is a few bruises and a black eye. Utterly absurd. There is no "immediate threat" with Joffrey.

Sorry, but the text is crystal clear: After the feast while Joffrey is being bedded. Spin it all you want, but it is just another example of making up your own facts to suit the wine theory.

We have seen all manner of vengeance taken out on one family member for the actions of another: Tion Frey and William Lannister: Jaehaerys Targaryen; heck, even Sansa is made to "answer for her brother's crimes." Again, believe what you want, but this in no way trumps the very clear understanding that Sansa will escape in the confusion after the feast while Joffrey is being bedded.

There were plenty of ways to get Sansa to doubt the Tyrells. Every conversation she has with them makes her doubt them more. But in the end, LF acted because doing so served two purposes: quash the Willas plan and create the motivation for Lady O to poison Tyrion. A win-win for LF, and a third surprise win when it turned out Sansa was still a maid.

A hegemon is simply the largest, most powerful in a group. It does not necessarily mean they use that power to dominate or subjugate. The United States is the hegemon today. But whatever, choose your own word. The fact remains that The Reach has had the largest army and navy for thousands of years and this has been its only means of defense. For another house to achieve military superiority puts them at a major disadvantage because they have no other way to defend themselves. And this is exactly what will happen if Tyrion becomes Lord of Winterfell. It's the fact, jack, deal with it.

No, it would make more sense to ally with him so you can get your hidden knives close. Do you think Tywin is an easy man to assassinate when he is in one armed camp and you are in another? But it becomes much easier when you are both on the same team. Besides, assassinating Tywin simply replaces one Lannister lord with another. The central problem still remains: Lannisters in charge of half the ruling houses in the realm. Tyrion is a much more significant target because it takes the entire north away from House Lannister, and this is why the plan is two-fold: kill Tyrion and remove Sansa so she is free to marry someone of their choosing, after the broader Lannister menace has been dismantled, of course.

Sorry dude, but the text thoroughly and unequivocally refutes this idea that the Tyrells are afraid of Joffrey. Nowhere has he even made a rude gesture toward Margaery, and in fact is shown to be clearly over the moon at marrying her rather than Sansa. And regardless of how you define "psychopath", the fact is that Joffrey does not just stroll around all day beating highborn maids just for fun. What happened to Sansa happened for reasons that are unique to Sansa. They have a history where she saw him humiliate himself on the Trident, and she seems to go out of her way to antagonize him at every step. Margaery smoothly and deftly manipulates him. Also, Sansa is utterly alone in the capital, with no friends, family, guards, soldiers to protect her. Margery has the might of Highgarden at her back and the fact that if he starts abusing her, the alliance is in jeopardy, along with Joff's hold on the Iron Throne. Even if Joffrey does not realize this, you can bet that Tywin, Cersei and Jaime do. And most importantly, Sansa's family is in open rebellion to the crown and her brother is winning battles in the westerlands, killing Lannisters on Lannister soil. So the idea that Joffrey will start beating Margaery just because he beat Sansa is as silly as thinking he's going to execute Mace just because he executed Ned. Different people, different circumstances, different relationships with Joffrey, different outcomes. Margaery is in absolutely no danger from Joffrey and probably won't be for years -- long after she is mother to the next king and will rule as regent in the event of Joffrey's untimely death.

Equally absurd is the idea that Lady Olenna is unaware of what Joffrey has been doing as king. She is after information on someone during the dinner conversation, but it isn't Joffrey.

Again, you keep talking about Sansa's growth. What growth? How has she grown? She doesn't even recognize how badly she blows her cover to Randa. She doesn't even know when the words out of her own mouth make her look the fool, or jeopardize her life. She hasn't learned anything. She's just as naïve as she was at the beginning, especially when she thinks she's being clever.

And did GRRM provide you with the theme, character and narrative importance to conclude that Lysa and Petyr killed Jon Arryn, not Cersei and/or Jaime? Did he provide you with the theme, character and narrative importance to conclude that the Westerlings were plotting with Tywin the whole time? That Joffrey sent the catspaw? That Illyrio had bigger plans than just Dany and Drogo?

 

 

 

[Walda]

2 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

His interactions with her highlight both his (dwindled) protective instincts, his attitudes towards his disability and the way society treats him, and how class privilege has affected him.

As in, because we or he might forget his essential traits if he doesn't always have some girl to slap, even when he is a slave?

His constant recollections of Shae and Tysha, his casual rape of the sex slave, his ribaldry with Septa Lemore, and Illyrio's staff, his sales pitch on the auction block, would suffice to remind us that he hasn't really changed how he regards and treats women, in spite of all the feels over killing his dad, and Shae, and all his wondering where whores go.

Penny attacking Tyrion in the Merchants House makes sense. But why she, a free woman with a dog and a pig, is aboard the Selaesori Qhoran, is a mystery to me. Did Jorah pay for her (and her animals)? Did the widow? Did Penny herself? 

Penny hates Tyrion, so why would she? The widow doesn't trust the slaver Jorah, and Penny has already survived the headhunters and is not likely to be threatened by the tigers or of value to Daenerys, so why? Jorah is trying to travel light, sold his own horse, has no time for Penny, so again, why?

The way they speak among each other, it would seem that Tyrion has persuaded Jorah to take Penny (and her dog and pig) as some kind of slave for his slave, and Jorah has gone along with it for no good reason. And Penny has just gone along with it, and Vogarro's whore had no problem with them taking Penny and her freedom and her livestock, either.

Tyrion is a point-of-view character, he can tell us what he thinks and feels. We don't need to work out his motivations from observations made from the self-engrosed and self-aggrandizing position of a point of view character, as we must with Jorah, Penny, the widow.

Tyrion somehow managed to establish his protective instincts, his attitude to his condition, societies attitude to his condition, and his class privilege, long before Penny joined the story.

The important thing that Penny has done, that no-one else could have done, was get Tyrion the gig as a slave-jouster at Daznaks. Daenarys saved him and Penny from the lions (still not sure if that means the Yunkai commanders knew he was a Lannister, or if throwing dwarf jousters to the lions is just like having Barsena fight a boar, or a bear choose between boys rolled in various bear-snacks, just how they roll)

The pint-sized tourney training might or might not come in handy now they have joined the second sons (at least, Jorah and Tyrion have. Again, there is some doubt about Penny here - member of the company, or Tyrion's campfollower/ little friend/ slave?

It is clear that Tyrion regards Penny as someone who naturally adapts to slavery and despises her for that, just as he respects the slave-trading Jorah Mormont for preferring to be beaten every night rather that submit to serve as a slave.

Her continuing to hang with the two of them, and even less explicably, her growing affection for Tyrion's mansplaining/sweet-talking/bitchslapping ways, even though he is why she and Oppo had to flee, why her Tyroshi friend and Oppo were killed, why she was enslaved, and why her dog and pig have now been abandoned. Also why Jorah Mormont has not been abandonded, although he is charmless and never was great company for Penny. 

Truly, we have had to suspend so much disbelief to get Penny from Volantis to the Yunkai camp to the Second Sons, and put up with so much more of the same old dumbarse sexist entitled bullshit that Tyrion has already thought about Tysha and Shae and whores, I really hope she has more reason to exist than as a means of exploring Tyrions whiny misogyny and self-hatred.

Jorah is a good example of a well developed character. He doesn't exist just to get Dany thinking about her sexuality. We don't really know why he has returned to slavers bay, either. Maybe it was a spur of the moment thing, after he opportunistically captured Tyrion Lannister at a Volantine slave-brothal. Or maybe he was treating himself to a slave-Daenerys at the brothel after organising some business with Khal Pono that we have yet to find out about.

Tyrion goads him that he is returning for love, but the widow did not trust him to serve his queen, and the last order Daenerys gave him was to leave and not come back. He has a Lordship in Westeros if he accepts Cersei's rule and she honours Robert's/Varys's agreement. Also if he can negotiate with Stannis, who helped his people save Bear Island from the squids. And of course, negotiate the rule with Lyanna, and work out whether or not Maege is still alive or if he should avenge or honour his father. The obscurity of his motives is clearly due to us not having all the information, as opposed to the author having only very sketchy ideas about him, and a sense that he can always retrofit more character into the character later, if they end up carrying a serious amount of plot.

We know Jorah's story has been carefully considered since book one. Penny, on the other hand, might have been retrofitted into book three from book five, just for the sake of pairing Tyrion up eith a female dwarf and having him ride a pig.

So I hope she has some huge payoff in future  plot twists to make up for the dead weight she has brought to every Tyrion chapter after ch.27 of Dance with Dragons. 

Being a foil for Tyrion is not enough.

[Colonel Green]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Put a purple dissolving crystal into a large amount of red wine and see what happens. It turns it "deep purple", easily recognized as tainted. Put it in dark brownish-purplish pigeon pie, however, and it's nearly undetectable.

It would change the colour of the cream.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

There is no reason to think Margaery won't get pregnant as easily as any other woman. By this logic, they are reasoning that they can't take a chance that it will take too long to bear Joffrey's child, so they are going to wait five years to start taking the same chance on Tommen.

Tommen isn't a ticking clock, unlike Joffrey, so they're not taking a chance in the way that Joffrey is.

Margaery isn't in danger of being infertile at 22, she has years and years to have children at that point.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

And all to prevent a problem that doesn't even exist yet and shows no signs of emerging in the future, and the only consequences Margaery faces if this problem does emerge is a few bruises and a black eye. Utterly absurd. There is no "immediate threat" with Joffrey.

The fact that your theory relies so strongly on dismissing the consequences of violent domestic abuse is a sign it's a weak theory.

As well, once Joffrey does become violent, countermeasures against him become more perceptible.  Whereas only a few perceive the logic now.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but the text is crystal clear: After the feast while Joffrey is being bedded.

What do you imagine Dontos would have said about it when he doesn't want to let her known that Joffrey will be assassinated during the feast?

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

We have seen all manner of vengeance taken out on one family member for the actions of another: Tion Frey and William Lannister: Jaehaerys Targaryen; heck, even Sansa is made to "answer for her brother's crimes." 

Oh please, that's absurd.  Again, you theory hinges on a complete undermining of the literary qualities of the text.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

There were plenty of ways to get Sansa to doubt the Tyrells. Every conversation she has with them makes her doubt them more. 

No there aren't, since Sansa stops meeting Dontos.  Once she decides she doesn't want to participate in the plan, his options are quite limited in how to force her to want to escape again.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

A hegemon is simply the largest, most powerful in a group. It does not necessarily mean they use that power to dominate or subjugate.

No, that's specifically what hegemony is.  See Messrs. Merriam and Webster.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Do you think Tywin is an easy man to assassinate when he is in one armed camp and you are in another? 

No, but if you're talking about prior to the alliance, the Tyrells don't have to assassinate Tywin, they would just not join the Lannisters and let them be defeated, which would have happened otherwise.

And once they are Lannister allies, it would be as easy to assassinate Tywin as Tyrion.  Nobody else in the Lannister household is nearly as fearsome.  But they don't have to do that, in any case, because they're working the long game of gaining influence over the government, quite successfully.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry dude, but the text thoroughly and unequivocally refutes this idea that the Tyrells are afraid of Joffrey. Nowhere has he even made a rude gesture toward Margaery, and in fact is shown to be clearly over the moon at marrying her rather than Sansa.

As the perceptive characters see, this is only temporary.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

And regardless of how you define "psychopath", the fact is that Joffrey does not just stroll around all day beating highborn maids just for fun. What happened to Sansa happened for reasons that are unique to Sansa.

This line of reasoning would only hold if Joffrey had only shown violent tendencies toward Sansa, which we see is clearly not the case.  He is "Aerys III", as Tyrion put it.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Again, you keep talking about Sansa's growth. What growth? How has she grown? She doesn't even recognize how badly she blows her cover to Randa. She doesn't even know when the words out of her own mouth make her look the fool, or jeopardize her life. She hasn't learned anything. She's just as naïve as she was at the beginning, especially when she thinks she's being clever.

There's been quite extensive work done in critical analyses on Sansa's growth, if you care to read them.  I've already illustrated how GRRM specifically shows her becoming more perceptive within this particular story strand.

You prefer to believe that GRRM has dedicated two-dozen chapters to a character who hasn't grown at all.  Which, again, speaks to how your view of the text has little regarding for literary elements.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

And did GRRM provide you with the theme, character and narrative importance to conclude that Lysa and Petyr killed Jon Arryn, not Cersei and/or Jaime? Did he provide you with the theme, character and narrative importance to conclude that the Westerlings were plotting with Tywin the whole time? That Joffrey sent the catspaw? That Illyrio had bigger plans than just Dany and Drogo?

As a point of comparison, if you had presented all of those story turns as theories prior to them being revealed, I would have had no problem with them and seen how they fit into the series' themes and how he seeded them (except for Joffrey have ordered the dagger, which is the weakest mystery resolution in the series; but even in that case it doesn't detract from anything else thought prior).

Conversely, comparing the mystery resolution presented to us in the text (and various supplemental materials, interviews, etc.) to your theory, I can make the opposite conclusion.  It's unsupported by the plot and would have the effect of rendering what is presently an elegant bit of storytelling meaningless in many places.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

It would change the colour of the cream.

Tommen isn't a ticking clock, unlike Joffrey, so they're not taking a chance in the way that Joffrey is.

Margaery isn't in danger of being infertile at 22, she has years and years to have children at that point.

The fact that your theory relies so strongly on dismissing the consequences of violent domestic abuse is a sign it's a weak theory.

As well, once Joffrey does become violent, countermeasures against him become more perceptible.  Whereas only a few perceive the logic now.

What do you imagine Dontos would have said about it when he doesn't want to let her known that Joffrey will be assassinated during the feast?

Oh please, that's absurd.  Again, you theory hinges on a complete undermining of the literary qualities of the text.

No there aren't, since Sansa stops meeting Dontos.  Once she decides she doesn't want to participate in the plan, his options are quite limited in how to force her to want to escape again.

No, that's specifically what hegemony is.  See Messrs. Merriam and Webster.

 

No, but if you're talking about prior to the alliance, the Tyrells don't have to assassinate Tywin, they would just not join the Lannisters and let them be defeated, which would have happened otherwise.

And once they are Lannister allies, it would be as easy to assassinate Tywin as Tyrion.  Nobody else in the Lannister household is nearly as fearsome.  But they don't have to do that, in any case, because they're working the long game of gaining influence over the government, quite successfully.

As the perceptive characters see, this is only temporary.

This line of reasoning would only hold if Joffrey had only shown violent tendencies toward Sansa, which we see is clearly not the case.  He is "Aerys III", as Tyrion put it.

There's been quite extensive work done in critical analyses on Sansa's growth, if you care to read them.  I've already illustrated how GRRM specifically shows her becoming more perceptive within this particular story strand.

You prefer to believe that GRRM has dedicated two-dozen chapters to a character who hasn't grown at all.  Which, again, speaks to how your view of the text has little regarding for literary elements.

As a point of comparison, if you had presented all of those story turns as theories prior to them being revealed, I would have had no problem with them and seen how they fit into the series' themes and how he seeded them (except for Joffrey have ordered the dagger, which is the weakest mystery resolution in the series; but even in that case it doesn't detract from anything else thought prior).

Conversely, comparing the mystery resolution presented to us in the text (and various supplemental materials, interviews, etc.) to your theory, I can make the opposite conclusion.  It's unsupported by the plot and would have the effect of rendering what is presently an elegant bit of storytelling meaningless in many places.

Yes, just as it changed the color of the wine, which makes it an inappropriate poison for either wine or cream in that amount.

They are not taking a chance with Joffrey either. As I already pointed out, even if Joffrey does go all Sansa on Margaery, the result is a black eye and a few bruises. Surely this is well worth the Iron Throne. Plenty of queens have suffered far worse for their crowns.

What makes you think she is infertile now?

Again, what consequences? A black eye, a few bruises. Rhaella was ripped to shreds, Cersei was punched and blackened repeatedly. They endured and so can Margaery for the short time it takes her to bear the next heir or two. This is a non-problem at the moment, and in no way calls for such a drastic step as regicide right in front of thousand witnesses. The whole idea is absurd. Lady Olenna, and Margaery, are playing the Game of Thrones, not the game of making sure Margaery lives happily ever after.

Robert was violent, and the countermeasures against him left no stain on Cersei. Joffrey could be removed in all kinds of ways and made to look like an accident. Margaery doesn't even have to be in the capital at the time.

If Dontos doesn't want Sansa to know that Joffrey is the target, then why, in your mind, is he confirming that he is the target by telling her the hairnet is her vengeance? Yet again, the arguments in favor of the wine collapse upon their own internal illogic.

These are the facts: family members are made to pay the price for their relatives' misbehavior. It's the basic concept that underlies the practice of taking wards and hostages. This is what Sansa is, a hostage, and she is made to "pay for your brother's crimes." If Balon Greyjoy had risen up in rebellion again, no one would think Ned Stark was a monster and tyrant if he tortured or even executed Theon. That was why he was in Winterfell. In fact, most people would question Ned's fitness as a lord if he did not do that. Nobody thinks Sansa's treatment was over the line because this is what happens when ward's families rebel against the crown.

Your imagination is severely limited. There are all kind of ways to get to Sansa, just as he got to her in the first place. Sansa's doubt over the Tyrells is already starting to fester. But as I said, LF saw two opportunities here: to bring Sansa back into the fold and to motivate Lady Olenna to kill Tyrion.

Well choose you own word then. The fact remains: without military superiority the Reach is vulnerable to invasion. This worries Lady Olenna far more than Margaery's black eye.

The Tyrells are not winning the long game, they are losing it and they know it. Casterly Rock is on the rise while Highgarden is waning. Killing Tywin merely replaces one Lannister lord for another in this family that now controls more than half the kingdom and the Iron Throne. Killing Tyrion prevents them from getting the north, which at least preserves military parity long enough to undermine the rest of their power bloc. Again, this is the Game of Thrones, not the game to make Margy happy.

Lol, by temporary you mean long enough for Margery to become the Queen Mother so that she can become regent if and when Joff becomes a problem. Then they will have successfully taken control of the government, which means killing Joffrey now is the last thing they would want to do.

What other highborn maids has he pulled out at random and beaten in front of the court? Nobody is under any illusions about Joffrey, but as we can see Margaery is one of the few people who knows how to manipulate him, and she is not so foolish as to draw his wrath, like Sansa does, on their first day of marriage. It will be a long, long time before she has to fear him, long after her position in a post-Joffrey kingdom is assured. This is how smart players play the game.

Sorry but she is not more perceptive. If she was, she would see how badly she has jeopardized herself with just a simple conversation with Randa, and how LF is using her just like everybody else. Sansa is just barely less naïve than when she first left Winterfell. Her story arc has hardened her somewhat, but she is no smarter or wiser.

Um, the reveals on all of these mysteries happened nearly two decades ago. Sorry I missed them. But if you look back at them, thought, you'll see that they follow the exact pattern as the PW: lots of surface text pointing to one conclusion, up to and including seemingly confirmatory text; ie, "The queen needed Lord Arryn dead" because "He knew. About . . . about . . ."; and then Surprise! the real truth lurking in the subtext, detectable only to those who see with their eyes and hear with their ears.

Believing in the wine is like believing the Sealord's cat was a rare, exotic beast from far distant lands. The reality was that it was just an ordinary tom, just like the wine was ordinary wine -- until Joff barfed the poison into it, of course.

Yes, the dagger reveal is incomplete. We will soon learn that Littlefinger was behind that as well, the first example of how easy he was able to manipulate Joffrey and why there is no way on earth he would want to kill one of his most valuable pieces on the board just to "confuse his enemies."

[Colonel Green]

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, just as it changed the color of the wine, which makes it an inappropriate poison for either wine or cream in that amount.

The difference being that the colour of the wine did change, while the colour of the cream did not change, so the text is telling you something about where the poison was.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

They are not taking a chance with Joffrey either. As I already pointed out, even if Joffrey does go all Sansa on Margaery, the result is a black eye and a few bruises. Surely this is well worth the Iron Throne. Plenty of queens have suffered far worse for their crowns.

And again with minimizing domestic abuse and claiming Margaery wouldn't care about it.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

What makes you think she is infertile now?

Nothing?  I didn't say she was.  It doesn't change that pregnancy is not predictable in the manner it would need to be for your proposal to make any sense.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Again, what consequences? A black eye, a few bruises. Rhaella was ripped to shreds, Cersei was punched and blackened repeatedly. They endured and so can Margaery for the short time it takes her to bear the next heir or two. 

Really, just listen to yourself.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Robert was violent, and the countermeasures against him left no stain on Cersei. Joffrey could be removed in all kinds of ways and made to look like an accident. Margaery doesn't even have to be in the capital at the time.

You think the king publicly abusing his wife and then him dying wouldn't raise suspicions?  Particularly from Cersei, who was in exactly the same position?

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

If Dontos doesn't want Sansa to know that Joffrey is the target, then why, in your mind, is he confirming that he is the target by telling her the hairnet is her vengeance?

There is no "target" at the time he's speaking, as far as the reader knows.

GRRM engages in a bit of literary sleight of hand there by using that as a chapter-ending line so that the characters never ask or ponder the meaning of it.  But it's a line that is meant to be understood in retrospect, a standard element of mystery writing.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Nobody thinks Sansa's treatment was over the line

In fact, pretty much everybody thinks Sansa's treatment was over the line; it's a sign that Joffrey is a psycho, not standard procedure.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Your imagination is severely limited. There are all kind of ways to get to Sansa, just as he got to her in the first place. Sansa's doubt over the Tyrells is already starting to fester.

Well, first, they can't read Sansa's mind, so even if she was starting to doubt them (which wasn't the case; she wrestled with Dontos' attempt but concluded, reasonably accurately, that even if the Tyrells did want her for her claim she was still better off) they wouldn't be able to gauge that.  And she refrained from contacting Dontos afterward.  So Littlefinger took measures to thwart her leaving and get his plan back on track.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Well choose you own word then. The fact remains: without military superiority the Reach is vulnerable to invasion. This worries Lady Olenna far more than Margaery's black eye.

Why would the Tyrells be worried about a Lannister invasion?  There is zero indication in the text that that is on their radar.  They are working with the Lannisters to rule Westeros, and acquiring more and more power within the coalition.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The Tyrells are not winning the long game, they are losing it and they know it. 

No, they aren't.  They're very much "growing strong".

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, by temporary you mean long enough for Margery to become the Queen Mother so that she can become regent if and when Joff becomes a problem.

As already gone over, there is no reliable timeline to make such a calculation even if Margaery was open to being abused.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

but as we can see Margaery is one of the few people who knows how to manipulate him

No, we don't see that.  You're thinking of the show.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry but she is not more perceptive.

Yes, she is.  You're just extremely wedded to the idea of Sansa not having character development for some reason.

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, the dagger reveal is incomplete. We will soon learn that Littlefinger was behind that as well

No, we won't, because Littlefinger was not in a position to manipulate Joffrey in respect of Bran's assassination.

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

The difference being that the colour of the wine did change, while the colour of the cream did not change, so the text is telling you something about where the poison was.

And again with minimizing domestic abuse and claiming Margaery wouldn't care about it.

Nothing?  I didn't say she was.  It doesn't change that pregnancy is not predictable in the manner it would need to be for your proposal to make any sense.

Really, just listen to yourself.

You think the king publicly abusing his wife and then him dying wouldn't raise suspicions?  Particularly from Cersei, who was in exactly the same position?

There is no "target" at the time he's speaking, as far as the reader knows.

GRRM engages in a bit of literary sleight of hand there by using that as a chapter-ending line so that the characters never ask or ponder the meaning of it.  But it's a line that is meant to be understood in retrospect, a standard element of mystery writing.

In fact, pretty much everybody thinks Sansa's treatment was over the line; it's a sign that Joffrey is a psycho, not standard procedure.

Well, first, they can't read Sansa's mind, so even if she was starting to doubt them (which wasn't the case; she wrestled with Dontos' attempt but concluded, reasonably accurately, that even if the Tyrells did want her for her claim she was still better off) they wouldn't be able to gauge that.  And she refrained from contacting Dontos afterward.  So Littlefinger took measures to thwart her leaving and get his plan back on track.

Why would the Tyrells be worried about a Lannister invasion?  There is zero indication in the text that that is on their radar.  They are working with the Lannisters to rule Westeros, and acquiring more and more power within the coalition.

No, they aren't.  They're very much "growing strong".

As already gone over, there is no reliable timeline to make such a calculation even if Margaery was open to being abused.

No, we don't see that.  You're thinking of the show.

Yes, she is.  You're just extremely wedded to the idea of Sansa not having character development for some reason.

No, we won't, because Littlefinger was not in a position to manipulate Joffrey in respect of Bran's assassination.

Yes, the wine changed after Joffrey barfed the poison into it. It's right there in the text. There was no wine before that because Joff would have started choking within seconds of drinking it -- just like Cressen, who drank far less of perfectly ordinary-looking wine.

Plenty of queens have suffered far worse in their domestic abuse. There is no reason why Margy cannot endure a few bruises in order to get the Iron Throne to herself. You are thinking with a 21st century mindset, not a 13th century one in which beating of wife and children is not only expected but condoned. Even Good Queen Allysanne, the foremost progressive thinker of the age, thought it was OK for a husband to beat his wife seven times.

If pregnancy is not predictable, then it's your theory that doesn't make any sense. At least with Joffrey they get to start trying right away, whereas with Tommen they have to wait at least five years. This is an eternity for a kingdom at war, and until consummation the "marriage" can be set aside at any time for any reason. And in the end, all Margy gets to be is a consort, not a regent. There is no upside to Tommen, only downside.

Let people suspect what they want. Every time a king dies, no matter how or when, tongues start wagging about murder. With no proof there is nothing anybody, even Cersei, can do about it. I can easily see a scenario where it looks like Joffrey shot himself with his own crossbow, while both Margaery and Loras were out of the capital.

Exactly, there was no target at that time. So why do you keep insisting there was, that this is canon? So if the plan is so loose at this point that he doesn't even know who he is going to kill, it stands to reason that he doesn't know who the killer would be, otherwise he would just hand over the poison directly rather than have Sansa parade it around on her head. And then Lady O would have no reason to be confused by the "disturbing tales" about Joffrey because LF has already confessed that he lied and she has already decided to kill him. Again and again and again, the wine theory is disputed by the plain, simple facts in the book.

Everybody thinks it's over the line? Who says this? Where? When? The only person who says anything is Tyrion, and even then, look at his words very carefully:

Quote

"This girl is to be your queen," the Imp told Joffrey. "Have you no regard for her honor?"

snip

"Wanton brutality is no way to win your people's love . . . or your queen's."

"Fear is better than love, Mother says." Joffrey pointed at Sansa. "She fears me."

The Imp sighed. "Yes, I see. A pity Stannis and Renly aren't twelve-year-old girls as well."

Do you see what he is saying? Not that Joffrey is overstepping his bounds or behaving inappropriately, but that he is only harming himself by doing this. "She is to be your queen." Dishonor her and you dishonor yourself in the eyes of your subjects, and that weakens your ability to rule. It is for Joffrey's sake (and Jaime's) that Tyrion put an end to it, not Sansa's.

Nobody else raised a peep over this, not at the time or afterward. Nobody thinks Joffrey is a madman because this is exactly what is supposed to happen to wards when their families rebel. The only difference here is that Sansa is queen-in-waiting, so a wise ruler would have treated her with kid gloves.

Yes, get her back, and at the same time create the situation that gets him a poisoner. Brilliant stroke by a brilliant player of the game.

Really? You don't think they are worried that Tywin Lannister, the man who professes his loyalty and then turns on you in a second and sacks your city and murders your smallfolk by the tens of thousands, the man who crushes rivals into the dirt, destroying their seats and exterminating their lines right down to the last child, will use his new-found military superiority to dominate them into the foreseeable future? For thousands of years the Reach has been immune to this kind of control from anyone except the dragons, and now they are going to blindly cede this power to the most vicious, blood-thirsty warlord in living memory? And remember, the Reach and the westerlands share a thousand-mile, loosely defined border that is ripe for the same kind of disputes that we saw in the Sworn Sword, and with his hold on the throne and his military might, Tywin has all he needs to whittle the Reach away acre by acre, dam by dam, village by village well into the future. And if Highgarden should rebel? Invasion, land burned from horizon to horizon, bodies left stinking in the dirt as far as the eye can see, towns, villages, holdfast burned to the ground, Highgarden razed, every last Tyrell killed and some Lannister now sitting in the high seat, perhaps even one married to (gasp!) a Florent. It boggles my mind that this deep into the story how ignorant some readers are about the Game of Thrones and how it is played.

To say that the Tyrells do not care that the traditionally weak neighbor is now the continental superpower is like saying the United States would not care if Russia were to suddenly take control of Canada, Mexico, Eastern Europe, Japan and South Korea.

Um, the Tyrells lost lands and titles after Robert's Rebellion and were lucky to retain their seat. They lost a good chunk of their army, and navy, to Stannis. Their legitimacy to the Iron Throne only comes by bearing a child to the sitting king, which is now hanging by a thread with Tommen. They are currently being invaded by the ironmen, and their marriage-based, eons-long military superiority is on the verge of being eclipsed by Casterly Rock. Show me how the Tyrells growing, and show me how they grow by killing Joffrey and waiting five years for Tommen while Tywin puts his family in the high seats of half the realm. Casterly Rock is growing, Highgarden is waning.

There is every reason to think Margaery will bear a child within a year, and there is zero reason to think Margaery will be abused. There is nothing in the text that even hints that Joffrey will start abusing her, or that he does this to random women in his circle just because he feels like it. Margaery is not stupid. She is a master seductress who has already shown how easily she can manipulate Joffrey. She is also a smoking hot 17yo; she is going to take Joffrey into the bed chamber and do things for him and to him that he can't even imagine right now. It will be a long, long time before she has to worry about Joffrey. In fact, there is nobody on the entire planet who is less likely to be abused by Joffrey. Once she has born an heir or two, they will likely get rid of him at a time and place of their choosing, and in a way that does not jeopardize the entire Tyrell family, regardless of whether Joffrey is hurting her or not.

Yes, we do see her manipulating him:

Quote

"Your Grace." Lord Tywin's voice was impeccably correct. "They are bringing in the pie. Your sword is needed."

"The pie?" Joffrey took his queen by the hand. "Come, my lady, it's the pie."

snip

King Joffrey and his queen met the pie below the dais. As Joff drew his sword, Margaery laid a hand on his arm to restrain him. "Widow's Wail was not meant for slicing pies."

"True," Joffrey lifted his voice. "Ser Illyn, your sword."

So first of all, we see how enthralled Joffrey is with Margaery by eagerly grabbing her hand with a "come, my lady." He is not faking this. We've seen him fake it and it's laughably transparent, even to a novice like Sansa.

Secondly, we see how deftly she manipulates him into overruling Lord Tywin by gently suggesting he use another sword. She didn't just blurt out "no, Joffrey, you can't do that", the way Sansa (and Tyrion and Tywin and Cersei and virtually everybody else, except Littlefinger) would. And she also manages to do this while dripping vast amounts of sexual innuendo. "Widow's Wail was not meant for slicing pies." Translation: Oh mighty king, what a large and powerful sword you have. Much too powerful for even this magnificent pie. She plays him like a fiddle. She has him wrapped completely around her finger.

Again, show me where Sansa has grown. What example, other than this thoroughly disputed idea of Loras running amok, tells you that she actually knows what is going on. I've given you three instances that shows she has not. You can't even give me one that shows she has.

Yes Littlefinger could very easily have been behind the catspaw, despite the fact that he was not in Winterfell and had no knowledge of anything that happened there. All he has to do is convince Joffrey before they left King's Landing that Ned being Hand would be bad for him, his mother and his eventual ascension as king, and that the only way to prevent this is if a Stark child were to suddenly die. Then, when Bran fell, it would appear to Joffrey that the problem had resolved itself. But when Bran survives and Ned comes south anyway, Joff sends the catspaw to finish the job. The inspiration is Littlefinger, but the clumsy plan is all Joffrey, just as LF would want it.

[John Suburbs]

On 5/5/2020 at 1:15 PM, Walda said:

snip

Best evidence for Shae being Littlefinger's agent isn't her mention of the pie, IMO, it's this:

Quote

"Can I come to the king's wedding feast? Lollys won't go. I told her no one's like to rape her in the king's own throne room, be she's so stupid." When Shae rolled off, his cock slid out of her with a soft wet sound. (Thanks for the detail here, George.) "Symon says there's to be a singer's tourney, and tumblers, even a fools' joust."

So Symon, of all people, knows about the joust, even though Petyr went to great lengths to keep them hidden? And by this time Symon is supposed to be working full time for the Stokeworth's, not playing for coppers in some brothel.

To me, this is Shae doing anything she can to get into the feast because LF is putting pressure on her to be his eyes and ears, and maybe even the poisoner as well.

[Colonel Green]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Plenty of queens have suffered far worse in their domestic abuse. There is no reason why Margy cannot endure a few bruises in order to get the Iron Throne to herself. You are thinking with a 21st century mindset, not a 13th century one in which beating of wife and children is not only expected but condoned.

You really have no case if you're reduced to arguing that women in the past had no desire to avoid being beaten.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If pregnancy is not predictable, then it's your theory that doesn't make any sense. At least with Joffrey they get to start trying right away, whereas with Tommen they have to wait at least five years. This is an eternity for a kingdom at war, and until consummation the "marriage" can be set aside at any time for any reason. And in the end, all Margy gets to be is a consort, not a regent. There is no upside to Tommen, only downside.

You've decided to start conflating two different things for some reason.

Joffrey is a ticking time bomb, and they have no way of knowing, contrary to your assertion, that any pregnancy could be achieved before it goes off.

With Tommen there is no ticking time bomb.  The only potential obstacle is Margaery's eventually declining fertility, and that is (as far as all know) decades away.  They lose nothing meaningful.

The marriage could be set aside, but there's no reason to expect that to happen.  The Lannister-Tyrell alliance is a fruitful partnership, Joffrey's behaviour is the only impediment, as they see it, to things functioning well.

You're also fixated on the regency for some reason.  Cersei is regent at the time of the wedding, and she's all but powerless.  The government is run by Tywin.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Let people suspect what they want. Every time a king dies, no matter how or when, tongues start wagging about murder. With no proof there is nothing anybody, even Cersei, can do about it.

Suspicion of murder tends to birth unwanted antagonism.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Exactly, there was no target at that time.

Not what I said.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Nobody else raised a peep over this, not at the time or afterward.

Joffrey is able to do what he does because he's the king and the court is full of morally bankrupt lackies.  That's kind of one of the important themes of the series.  But his behaviour is widely understood to be wrong.  Arys Oakheart notes it in POV, for instance.

And no, this isn't the normal thing with wards or even with hostages, especially female hostages. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Really? You don't think they are worried that Tywin Lannister, the man who professes his loyalty and then turns on you in a second and sacks your city and murders your smallfolk by the tens of thousands, the man who crushes rivals into the dirt, destroying their seats and exterminating their lines right down to the last child, will use his new-found military superiority to dominate them into the foreseeable future?

They would obviously prefer to not be on Tywin Lannister's bad side.  But they aren't, and have no particular reason to be worried about that.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

To say that the Tyrells do not care that the traditionally weak neighbor is now the continental superpower is like saying the United States would not care if Russia were to suddenly take control of Canada, Mexico, Eastern Europe, Japan and South Korea.

The Westerlands are not a "traditionally weak neighbour".

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Um, the Tyrells lost lands and titles after Robert's Rebellion and were lucky to retain their seat.

No, they didn't?  You seem to have invented that out of nowhere.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

They lost a good chunk of their army, and navy, to Stannis.

Um, again, no they didn't?

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Their legitimacy to the Iron Throne only comes by bearing a child to the sitting king, which is now hanging by a thread with Tommen. They are currently being invaded by the ironmen, and their marriage-based, eons-long military superiority is on the verge of being eclipsed by Casterly Rock. Show me how the Tyrells growing, and show me how they grow by killing Joffrey and waiting five years for Tommen while Tywin puts his family in the high seats of half the realm. Casterly Rock is growing, Highgarden is waning.

You're toggling back and forth between describing the Tyrells' situation circa the end of ACOK and the Tyrells' situation as of the most recently-published novel, so it's hard to understand what set of calculations you're even talking about, but no, House Tyrell is not waning in either scenario.  Indeed, as of publication they've all but passed by the Lannisters in terms of actual directing power in the capital, which they effectively control.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Margaery is not stupid. She is a master seductress who has already shown how easily she can manipulate Joffrey. She is also a smoking hot 17yo; she is going to take Joffrey into the bed chamber and do things for him and to him that he can't even imagine right now.

You're describing the TV show again.  Book Margaery is not a "seductress" and isn't indicated to have any particular sexual expertise.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, we do see her manipulating him:

So first of all, we see how enthralled Joffrey is with Margaery by eagerly grabbing her hand with a "come, my lady." He is not faking this. We've seen him fake it and it's laughably transparent, even to a novice like Sansa.

Secondly, we see how deftly she manipulates him into overruling Lord Tywin by gently suggesting he use another sword. She didn't just blurt out "no, Joffrey, you can't do that", the way Sansa (and Tyrion and Tywin and Cersei and virtually everybody else, except Littlefinger) would. And she also manages to do this while dripping vast amounts of sexual innuendo. "Widow's Wail was not meant for slicing pies." Translation: Oh mighty king, what a large and powerful sword you have. Much too powerful for even this magnificent pie. She plays him like a fiddle. She has him wrapped completely around her finger.

If that's all you mean by "manipulation", Sansa also does that repeatedly in ACOK, as in the King's Landing riot, where she's able to steer him away from becoming angry at a peasant woman and even gets him to give her a coin.

And that's not the sort of thing that will deflect Joffrey's wrath in the end, anymore than Sansa was able to.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Again, show me where Sansa has grown.

To name two other strands, she's able to repeatedly disguise her participation in Dontos' escape plan, and she can perceive the true nature of Littlefinger's scheme with Ser Lyn Corbrary to fool the Lords Declarant, which none of the lords themselves (other than maybe Bronze Yohn) can see.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes Littlefinger could very easily have been behind the catspaw, despite the fact that he was not in Winterfell and had no knowledge of anything that happened there. All he has to do is convince Joffrey before they left King's Landing that Ned being Hand would be bad for him, his mother and his eventual ascension as king, and that the only way to prevent this is if a Stark child were to suddenly die. Then, when Bran fell, it would appear to Joffrey that the problem had resolved itself. But when Bran survives and Ned comes south anyway, Joff sends the catspaw to finish the job. The inspiration is Littlefinger, but the clumsy plan is all Joffrey, just as LF would want it.

This is nonsense.  Littlefinger already has a plan in motion to lure Ned south.  He wants him to take the job.  And the course of action you're suggesting could very easily have led to the whole thing exploding into the open at Winterfell, which would have led to the Starks taking control on home turf.