The Purple Wedding, the pie or the wine?

[frenin]

36 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

They would obviously prefer to not be on Tywin Lannister's bad side.  But they aren't, and have no particular reason to be worried about that.

Not that there is a reason to fear that, Tywin can't rule without them and he is too much hated to get much levies from the other kingdoms. Tywin opposing them is suicidal. The Lannisters desperately need them to hold the Throne.

[Ygrain]

If the Tyrells didn't care about possible abuse towards Margaery, then there is no reason why the scene with Olenna and Marge questioning Sansa about it should be included. Yet, GRRM chose to write it, and pretty detailed. Anyone who thinks that GRRM writes scenes for shits and giggles should think again.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

You really have no case if you're reduced to arguing that women in the past had no desire to avoid being beaten.

You've decided to start conflating two different things for some reason.

Joffrey is a ticking time bomb, and they have no way of knowing, contrary to your assertion, that any pregnancy could be achieved before it goes off.

With Tommen there is no ticking time bomb.  The only potential obstacle is Margaery's eventually declining fertility, and that is (as far as all know) decades away.  They lose nothing meaningful.

The marriage could be set aside, but there's no reason to expect that to happen.  The Lannister-Tyrell alliance is a fruitful partnership, Joffrey's behaviour is the only impediment, as they see it, to things functioning well.

You're also fixated on the regency for some reason.  Cersei is regent at the time of the wedding, and she's all but powerless.  The government is run by Tywin.

Suspicion of murder tends to birth unwanted antagonism.

Not what I said.

Joffrey is able to do what he does because he's the king and the court is full of morally bankrupt lackies.  That's kind of one of the important themes of the series.  But his behaviour is widely understood to be wrong.  Arys Oakheart notes it in POV, for instance.

And no, this isn't the normal thing with wards or even with hostages, especially female hostages. 

They would obviously prefer to not be on Tywin Lannister's bad side.  But they aren't, and have no particular reason to be worried about that.

The Westerlands are not a "traditionally weak neighbour".

No, they didn't?  You seem to have invented that out of nowhere.

Um, again, no they didn't?

You're toggling back and forth between describing the Tyrells' situation circa the end of ACOK and the Tyrells' situation as of the most recently-published novel, so it's hard to understand what set of calculations you're even talking about, but no, House Tyrell is not waning in either scenario.  Indeed, as of publication they've all but passed by the Lannisters in terms of actual directing power in the capital, which they effectively control.

You're describing the TV show again.  Book Margaery is not a "seductress" and isn't indicated to have any particular sexual expertise.

If that's all you mean by "manipulation", Sansa also does that repeatedly in ACOK, as in the King's Landing riot, where she's able to steer him away from becoming angry at a peasant woman and even gets him to give her a coin.

And that's not the sort of thing that will deflect Joffrey's wrath in the end, anymore than Sansa was able to.

To name two other strands, she's able to repeatedly disguise her participation in Dontos' escape plan, and she can perceive the true nature of Littlefinger's scheme with Ser Lyn Corbrary to fool the Lords Declarant, which none of the lords themselves (other than maybe Bronze Yohn) can see.

This is nonsense.  Littlefinger already has a plan in motion to lure Ned south.  He wants him to take the job.  And the course of action you're suggesting could very easily have led to the whole thing exploding into the open at Winterfell, which would have led to the Starks taking control on home turf.

Of course they have a "desire to avoid being beaten," but they are not willing to give up their crowns for it. It's a small price to pay in a culture where wife-beating is not only accepted but condoned. Again, stop thinking like a 21st Century mind and put yourself in the 13th Century where all the characters in the book are.

They have every reason to expect Margaery will keep Joffrey in line until they are ready to remove him. He is head-over-heels in love with her now and she has all the skills necessary to keep it that way for a long, long time.

They lose everything meaningful with Tommen. Margaery goes from all-power Queen Regent to virtually powerless Queen Consort, and that's if they can keep this "marriage" intact until consummation. No reason to expect anything different? A realm at war with itself, with Margaery already twice widowed? With Cersei hostile to this match and eager to see it undone? If anything is uncertain in all of this, it's that.

Cersei as regent had far more power at her disposal than Cersei as Robert's consort. Cersei appointed new kingsguard; Cersei led the small council; Cersei saw to the defense of King's Landing . . . When Tywin arrived, her wings were clipped somewhat. But soon Tywin was to depart on campaign again while Cersei was to be shipped off to her next husband. Instead, they had Cersei to deal with for another five years while all Margaery could do is play little mind games with Tommen. Please, tell me how this is better than Margaery as Queen of the 7K, where her word would be law.

Unwanted antagonism? Margaery is Queen and she has the largest army on the continent. Let others be antagonized as long as they don't plot any actual treason. Please, you're grasping at very thin straws here.

Your words dude:

On 5/6/2020 at 12:37 PM, Colonel Green said:

There is no "target" at the time he's speaking, as far as the reader knows.

Nobody thinks Joffrey mistreating his hostage is out of bounds for a king. As I said, this is what hostages are for. Jacelyn Bywater reports that most of the people blame Tyrion for all their ills:

Quote

"His grace is but a boy. In the streets, it is said that he has evil councillors. The queen has never been known as a friend to the commons, nor is Lord Varys called the Spider out of love . . . but it is you they blame the most. Your sister and the eunuch were here when times were better under King Robert, but you were not. They say that you've filled the city with swaggering sellswords and unwashed savages, brutes who take what they want and follow no laws but their own. They say you exiled Janos Slynt because you found him too bluff and honest for your liking. They say you threw wise and gentle Pycelle into the dungeons when he dared raise his voice against you. Some even claim that you mean to seize the Iron Throne for your own."

You see how twisted it all is? Just because we get the PoVs directly doesn't mean these beliefs are universal. Most people have completely skewed ideas of who is good and who is bad. Nobody, not even Tyrion, thinks Joffrey is a mad rabid tyrant who must be assassinated ASAP. They don't think the way you and I do, they don't have the same values, the same expectations . . . Joffrey is king, and he has wide latitude to behave in all kinds of ways they we think is reprehensible. Even the Mad King had is followers despite all of his nuttiness. Once again, your stuck in the present century when you should be thinking in medieval, feudal terms.

This is perfectly normal for wards whose lords break faith with their sovereigns. What do you expect them to do, pat them on the head and send them home? Joffrey is perfectly clear: "You're here to answer for your brother's latest treasons." He's not doing this at random, just because he feels like it. This is what happens to hostages whose lords rebel. Once again, you can make up all the facts you want, but the text is the text.

So all they have to do is meekly obey their new overlord so that he doesn't get mad, and they'll be OK? This is acceptable to the family that had been the overlords for thousands of years? And Tywin showed clearly in RR how he treats those who are on "his side."

The westerlands have traditionally been able to raise less than half of what the Reach can. In the current war, Tywin has 35k while Mace has more than 80k. In RR, Tywin had 12k while Mace led 60k. In the Dance of the Dragons, King Mern IX Gardener brouth 30k to the Field of Fire while Loren I Lannister brought 15k. The canon is right there in the World Book: the largest and most populous of the six southern kingdoms (the north, vast in expanse though thinly peopled, being a land apart) is commonly referred to as the Reach." So by all means, follow your head canon to your hearts content, but the actual facts in the books shows that the Reach is vastly more powerful than the westerlands.

Of course they lost lands and titles. The terms were generous, but there were terms nonetheless. They got off easy.

What book have you been reading? Did you skip the part where the better part of 20,000 cavalry men went over to Stannis after Renly's death? Or that thousands more were sent home or put to the sword at Bitterbridge? But they didn't lose their navy, in fact, because they never had it. The Redwynes stayed home because the Lannisters held Horace and Hobber. So from 80,000 before Renly died, they had as few as 50,000 after the Blackwater -- not quite half, but as I said, a good chunk.

I'm talking about the situation at the time of Joffrey's death. The Tyrells do not control the government: Joffrey is king, Cersei is QR, Tywin is Hand and they are blocking the Tyrells from all key positions: Grand Maester, Master of Coin, even a bride for Willas. All they get is Loras on the KG and Mace as Master of Ships. They could have gotten a lot more with Tywin dead and Margaery whispering in Joffrey's ear, but alas, they now have Cersei back in control and she blocks the Tyrells even further: no Mace as MoS or as Hand, no Garth as MoC, half the Tyrell army to Storm's End, the other half to Brightwater Keep, and she is actively plotting to undo the "marriage" to Tommen that you insist is a rock-solid guarantee over the next five years. In one second, they removed Margaery from being a heartbeat away from becoming the most powerful figure in the realm to a life of merely influencing the most powerful figure five years from no if everything over the next five years breaks their way. Utterly absurd for a woman who has clearly and indisputably been established as one of the top players of the Game of Thrones.

You can see her seductiveness right on the page if you bother to look. She does it with Joffrey, with Tyrion, with Sansa, she seduces everyone with her looks and her charm. And you can also see, if you bother to look, that Joffrey is completely taken in by this. He is over the moon at marrying her rather than pale, mopey Sansa.

Margaery doesn't have to worry about deflecting Joffrey's wrath "in the end," only for now. They will probably get rid of him long before she has to worry about his wrath at all.

Disguise how? She has to go to the godswood, exactly as told. She has to not speak to him otherwise, exactly as told. The Corbray thing was good, but it's not like LF didn't prompt her first, after he had already told her everything else that was going to happen:

Quote

"I had to know. What will happen in a year?"

He had put down the quill. "Redfort and Waynewood are old. One of both of them may die. Gilwood Hunter will be murdered by his brothers. Most likely by young Harlan, who arranged Lord Eon's death. In for a penny, in for a stag, I always say. Belmore is corrupt and can be bought. Templeton I shall befriend. Bronze Yohn Royce will continue to be hostile, I fear, but so long as he stands alone he is not so much a threat."

"And Lyn Corbray?"

The candlelight was dancing in his eyes. "Ser Lyn will remain my implacable enemy. He will speak of me with scorn and loathing to every man he meets, and lend his sword to every secret plot to bring me down."

That was when her suspicions turned to certainty. "And how shall you reward him for this service?"

So it's not like Petyr is trying to hide anything here. But yes, this one time Sansa managed to get a little wood on the ball, before utterly striking out with Randa, and with the Lords Declarant just before the meeting.

Ugh. The purpose with LF's lie to Joffrey is not to prevent Ned from coming south, it's to get Joffrey to act. Petyr knows as well as Tyrion and Catelyn that if Robert wants Ned as Hand then Ned will be Hand, or else there will be deep suspicions as to his loyalty to Robert. It almost did explode in KL, especially after he told the lie about the dagger. If Tyrion had made it back to the capital, things would have been very bad for Petyr. Fortunately, Cat nabbed him first, but even if that didn't happen I surmise Petyr had a plan to ensure that Tyrion never made it back.

How could the Starks "take control on home turf"? Robert is king and Ned has maybe 100 men. Is he going to defeat 5,000 gold cloaks with that?

 

 

[Colonel Green]

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course they have a "desire to avoid being beaten," but they are not willing to give up their crowns for it. 

Margaery didn't give up her crown, she just changed the king she was married to.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

They have every reason to expect Margaery will keep Joffrey in line until they are ready to remove him.

No they don't.  Margaery can play the courtly lady, just like Sansa can, but she's got no superpower to make him not a psychopath.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Margaery goes from all-power Queen Regent

Margaery was never the Queen Regent and they couldn't reliably predict that she could take that position.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

No reason to expect anything different? A realm at war with itself, with Margaery already twice widowed? With Cersei hostile to this match and eager to see it undone?

Cersei's opinion doesn't matter much at all, in the circumstances.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Cersei as regent had far more power at her disposal than Cersei as Robert's consort. Cersei appointed new kingsguard; Cersei led the small council; Cersei saw to the defense of King's Landing . . . When Tywin arrived, her wings were clipped somewhat. But soon Tywin was to depart on campaign again while Cersei was to be shipped off to her next husband.

Tywin was not scheduled to depart on campaign again.  I'm unsure where you got that from.  And as you say, Cersei was reduced to irrelevance once Tywin arrived to take charge, where there was every expectation he would remain for years to come.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Margaery is Queen and she has the largest army on the continent.

Wait, weren't you just arguing the Tyrells' power was waning badly and they desperately had to kill Tyrion to avert destruction?

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Your words dude:

"As far as the reader knows", meaning that the reader on first interpreting that sentence doesn't know there's going to be an assassination.  The words are only fully understood afterward, a standard part of mystery writing.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Nobody thinks Joffrey mistreating his hostage is out of bounds for a king.

Yes, they do.  And I specifically noted the example of Arys Oakheart:

Joffrey. He had been a handsome lad, tall and strong for his age, but that was all the good that could be said of him. It still shamed Ser Arys to remember all the times he'd struck that poor Stark girl at the boy's command. When Tyrion had chosen him to go with Myrcella to Dorne, he lit a candle to the Warrior in thanks.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

What do you expect them to do, pat them on the head and send them home?

No, the expectation is that they be kept as prisoners.  It is not the standard to punish noble prisoners with random beatings.  Which is why we only see Joffrey do that.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So all they have to do is meekly obey their new overlord so that he doesn't get mad, and they'll be OK? This is acceptable to the family that had been the overlords for thousands of years?

The Tyrells haven't been overlords for thousands of years, to begin with, but also, the Reach was, as previously established, not in any sense dominant over Westeros.

And there's nothing "meek" about it.  Tywin and the Tyrells are on the same page about wanting to work together to rule Westeros to their mutual benefit, and the Tyrells benefit extensively.  And with the way things are shaping up, the Tyrells' influence only grows in the long-term, especially since House Lannister outside of Tywin's generation is not particularly impressive.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course they lost lands and titles.

No, they didn't.  Please cite any portion of the text supporting this assertion of yours.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

What book have you been reading? Did you skip the part where the better part of 20,000 cavalry men went over to Stannis after Renly's death? Or that thousands more were sent home or put to the sword at Bitterbridge? But they didn't lose their navy, in fact, because they never had it. The Redwynes stayed home because the Lannisters held Horace and Hobber. So from 80,000 before Renly died, they had as few as 50,000 after the Blackwater -- not quite half, but as I said, a good chunk.

You keep toggling around in the timeline, so it's hard to keep track of what you were referring to when you talked about armies and navies, after already making up that the Tyrells had lost land after Robert's Rebellion.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm talking about the situation at the time of Joffrey's death. The Tyrells do not control the government: Joffrey is king, Cersei is QR, Tywin is Hand and they are blocking the Tyrells from all key positions: Grand Maester, Master of Coin, even a bride for Willas. All they get is Loras on the KG and Mace as Master of Ships. They could have gotten a lot more with Tywin dead and Margaery whispering in Joffrey's ear, but alas, they now have Cersei back in control and she blocks the Tyrells even further: no Mace as MoS or as Hand, no Garth as MoC, half the Tyrell army to Storm's End, the other half to Brightwater Keep, and she is actively plotting to undo the "marriage" to Tommen that you insist is a rock-solid guarantee over the next five years. In one second, they removed Margaery from being a heartbeat away from becoming the most powerful figure in the realm to a life of merely influencing the most powerful figure five years from no if everything over the next five years breaks their way. Utterly absurd for a woman who has clearly and indisputably been established as one of the top players of the Game of Thrones.

Since Tywin wasn't supposed to die, it's irrelevant what they "could" have gotten if Joffrey was still alive and Margaery married to him.  That wasn't the plan, and there wasn't any particular reason to expect Tywin to suddenly be assassinated.

The Tyrells at the time of Joffrey's death have three small council seats, and afterwards Tywin concedes them the Master of Coin role as well.  They were doing very well indeed.  And with Pycelle likely to die in the near future, the Grand Maester's post would very likely have been theirs as well, from what we can see.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Disguise how?

Such as when she cleverly finds a way to decline Tyrion's offer of shelter within the Tower of the Hand without making him suspicious, and thus allowing her to continue participation in the plot.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The Corbray thing was good, but it's not like LF didn't prompt her first

The whole reason she sought him out that night was because she'd already been having suspicions about it, without prompting.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Ugh. The purpose with LF's lie to Joffrey is not to prevent Ned from coming south, it's to get Joffrey to act.

"Getting Joffrey to act" could very easily have the effect of preventing Ned from coming south, since Littlefinger would have no idea what or when he'd decide to do or whether Joffrey would be found out.

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

How could the Starks "take control on home turf"? Robert is king and Ned has maybe 100 men. Is he going to defeat 5,000 gold cloaks with that?

5000 goldcloaks?  Try 300ish men, total, per the book.  Any event that happens in the North is inherently a more favourable place for Ned than King's Landing.  He's in the driver's seat, with large forces at his disposal, and his own castle is where all the parties are staying.

[Nevets]

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course they have a "desire to avoid being beaten," but they are not willing to give up their crowns for it. It's a small price to pay in a culture where wife-beating is not only accepted but condoned. Again, stop thinking like a 21st Century mind and put yourself in the 13th Century where all the characters in the book are

Not only does Margaery have to worry about getting beat up, they have to worry about Loras.  Cersei told Ned that if Jaime had known Robert hit her, Jaime would have killed him.  And Jaime is calm, cool, and collected compared to Loras.  One helping of Kingslayer stew, coming up.  By the way, Loras's inclusion in the KG was Mace's doing, not Olenna and Margaery's.

 

With respect to having a child, it is worth noting that Joffrey is only 13 years old.  He may be unable to produce a child right now.  They make have to wait on him for a year or two.

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Ugh. The purpose with LF's lie to Joffrey is not to prevent Ned from coming south, it's to get Joffrey to act.

Now I'm seriously confused.  What is LF trying to accomplish, other than getting Joffrey into trouble, or maybe a dead Stark kid.  I don't see either of those helping him.  And if Joffrey's supposed to do something, he's taking his time.  Bran fell on the last day before their scheduled departure.

 

[Lord Varys]

Discussing those issues with @John Suburbs really leads nowhere. He really has some sort or very fixed view on things that clash at multiple points with the text as written.

There are some mysteries yet to be resolved about the poisoning plot - for instance, when and why exactly Olenna and Littlefinger started to collaborate on the murder of Joffrey - but the broad strokes are clear. We can even make pretty good guesses who knew about the plot or had to play a role in it: Olenna, Margaery, Alerie, Garlan and possibly his wife Leonette were directly involved. Mace may have been pushed by his mother, wife, and daughter to demand the head of Tyrion to weaken the Lannisters some more (although it stands to reason he didn't know about the poisoning as such since it was done to correct one of his bad decisions - to insist Loras join the KG), but Loras likely knew nothing (since the point of the entire exercise was to prevent him from eventually murdering Joffrey). Taena Merryweather may also have been briefed to incriminate Tyrion ... or may have done that on her own accord, difficult to say.

On Littlefinger's end of the table the Kettleblacks and Dontos were also in the know up to a point.

It also seems clear to me that Olenna's last offer to Sansa was genuine - had she said she wanted to travel to Highgarden with her after the wedding for a visit, Olenna would have her people exonerate Sansa of all accusations during the trial if she had not suddenly disappeared (likely by ways of having Margaery herself, her cousins, Alerie, and Olenna herself her giving testimony that Sansa were nowhere near that goblet or had even tried to prevent Tyrion from putting the poison in). The Tyrells would have made Tyrion the sole scapegoat and Olenna and Mace would have made Sansa Willas' wife no matter what Tywin tried to do to prevent that.

[Seams]

Here's a twist to consider:

Maybe the Tyrells and others need a maiden. One of the seven gods is the maiden and we have (perhaps) older Westeros legends of the maiden around Maidenpool, Florian & Jonquil and Ser Galladon of Morne.

If Margaery is going to be a queen who finally sleeps with her husband, they need to bring in a new maiden to fill that role at Highgarden. If they have their own little birds, they may know that Tyrion has not yet deflowered Sansa.

Part of my thinking is that Mace may be playing the game for the Iron Throne, but Lady Olenna is playing an older game - for the seat of Garth Greenhands. There are parallels between Old Nan and Olenna that lead me to suspect they operate in a different time frame from the contemporary game of thrones. For some reason, that game of legend requires the presence of a special maid; probably one who has bathed in a certain kind of pool.

One of the known roles for a maiden of legend in Westeros is to present her knight with a special sword. At Joffrey's wedding feast, Margaery tells Joffrey not to use his new Widow's Wail sword (although he already used it to destroy a book). Instead, Joffrey borrows the sword of the King's Justice, Ser Ilyn Payne, to cut the pigeon pie.

Maybe the Tyrell goal is to keep Margaery in her maiden state even though she is married. So far, they are batting .1000, even after three marriages. Joffrey's death before the bedding was necessary to sustain some kind of legendary condition for Tyrell power.

In a weird way, I wonder whether Cersei is carrying out a similar "mummer's" version of virginity when she sleeps with her brother who is her other half. It is the moral equivalent of self-pleasuring, in her mind. When she sleeps with the king, she avoids allowing him to penetrate her or engages him with a hand job or oral sex, for the most part. Cersei's later imprisonment of Margaery and selection of Ser Loras for a deadly mission may be her way of breaking up the Florian / Jonquil power base or magical pairing in House Tyrell. Instead of the legend of the magical maiden, Cersei wants to see the final act of the Nissa Nissa magical sword story.

Of course, the Maid of Tarth may be the mightiest maid of all. Brienne is the most virginal of all virgins, having survived many betrothals and attempts on her maidenhead. Maybe Sansa, Margaery and Cersei will be swept aside by the über-maid.

[Walda]

On 5/8/2020 at 2:21 AM, John Suburbs said:

Best evidence for Shae being Littlefinger's agent isn't her mention of the pie,

True. Your example is one of the more singular proofs. Most of mine are weaker and have to be considered in conjunction with each other and usually have equally good alternative explinations when taken individually. But they all lead me to the conclusion that Shae (and Bronn, and Lady Tanda, and Ser Gyles, and the surviving Antler Men, and Ser Balon Swann, to name just a few) are hidden daggers for Petyr Baelish. I suspect there is a hidden entrance to Lady Tanda's through Lollys' room, which is why Shae drugs her and Symon covers up the noise of treasonous guests coming and going. 

It is not a plot point, but another way Shae is associated with the Purple Wedding is her appearance after death. 

Quote

she was, naked, cold, and pink … save for her face, which had turned as black as Joff’s had at his wedding feast.

(AFfC, Ch.3 Cersei I)

This chapter seems to have a lot of allusions to death by strangulation, most probably foreshadowing Cersei's own. 

It also seems to me that if word of Cersei's fornications with Taena gets to the High Sparrow, the Kettleblacks et al could put a construction on her previous dealings with Shae, and her instructions to them in this chapter, that could see Cersei on trial for the murder of Shae.

[Colonel Green]

On 5/9/2020 at 12:15 PM, Lord Varys said:

It also seems clear to me that Olenna's last offer to Sansa was genuine - had she said she wanted to travel to Highgarden with her after the wedding for a visit, Olenna would have her people exonerate Sansa of all accusations during the trial if she had not suddenly disappeared (likely by ways of having Margaery herself, her cousins, Alerie, and Olenna herself her giving testimony that Sansa were nowhere near that goblet or had even tried to prevent Tyrion from putting the poison in). The Tyrells would have made Tyrion the sole scapegoat and Olenna and Mace would have made Sansa Willas' wife no matter what Tywin tried to do to prevent that.

From GRRM's interviews, the Tyrells weren't in on Tyrion being the fall-guy.  Their plan was (a) that Joffrey's death be passed off as choking (this is the strongest evidence that Lady Alerie was involved, since she immediately and loudly declares that Joffrey choked as soon as it happens) and, failing that (b) that Sansa be blamed for it as the murdered, since she's wearing the poisoned hairnet.  This also explains what the purpose of the hairnet was, since if they knew Sansa was fleeing it would be pointless, as she'd be incriminated regardless by that action.

Framing Tyrion and extracting Sansa were Littlefinger's own additions to the plan (though I suppose, from the Tyrells' perspective, if Sansa ended up needing to be incriminated, after the marriage there was a good chance that Tyrion would be accused of being involved as well).

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

From GRRM's interviews, the Tyrells weren't in on Tyrion being the fall-guy.  Their plan was (a) that Joffrey's death be passed off as choking (this is the strongest evidence that Lady Alerie was involved, since she immediately and loudly declares that Joffrey choked as soon as it happens) and, failing that (b) that Sansa be blamed for it as the murdered, since she's wearing the poisoned hairnet.  This also explains what the purpose of the hairnet was, since if they knew Sansa was fleeing it would be pointless, as she'd be incriminated regardless by that action.

Framing Tyrion and extracting Sansa were Littlefinger's own additions to the plan (though I suppose, from the Tyrells' perspective, if Sansa ended up needing to be incriminated, after the marriage there was a good chance that Tyrion would be accused of being involved as well).

That simple story doesn't seem to make a lot of sense if you think about it. Sansa got the hairnet from Littlefinger via Dontos, meaning his original plan was to use Sansa as a potential scapegoat as well - although his plan would have been from the start to merely incriminate Sansa so she would later be more dependent on him. He always wanted to spirit her away immediately after Joff's death.

Tyrion only became a good potential scapegoat when Littlefinger told Tywin about the Willas plan and arranged the marriage between Sansa and Tyrion. And you also have to keep in mind that originally Tyrion was to be dead by the time Littlefinger and the Tyrells came to court - assuming he was the man behind the Mandon Moore attempt. It stands to reason that Littlefinger and Olenna might have changed the details of the plan agreeing to make Tyrion and Sansa both the scapegoats, especially after the marriage. Littlefinger would have known that Olenna tried to doublecross him in the Sansa matter with Willas, but she wouldn't have known that he was the guy who spilled the beans to the Lannisters (they would have suspected Sansa herself had not kept her mouth - which was correct, in a sense - which would also explain their coldness towards Sansa when the Willas plan was foiled).

I'm also inclined to believe that Garlan constantly praising Tyrion for his role in the siege and stuff indicates that they were aware of the plan to frame him. Garlan's approach ensured that Tyrion would never suspect him. And once Sansa was married to Tyrion one could, if push came to shove, always blame Tyrion for Sansa's wardrobe - who else but him could have purchased this Strangler net? Certainly not Sansa herself, no? He would have used his lady wife a way to smuggle the poison into the throne room.

Olenna's last talk with Sansa also indicates she may have been aware that Tyrion might end up being framed for the murder.

Vice versa, the Tyrells would have been aware of the hairnet plan from the start since Olenna took the poison from the net - but they were also undermining the Sansa scapegoat idea with their own plan of marrying Sansa to Willas. Had she not told Dontos about that she would have never married Tyrion in the first place and Olenna wouldn't have allowed anything to happen to this price and her claim.

This is why I said that the blank spaces are when exactly Olenna and Littlefinger started to work together to murder Joffrey. We know it started back in Highgarden since Sansa got the hairnet immediately after Littlefinger's return to the city at the end of ACoK. One imagines that he approached Olenna with the idea after the official marriage pact with Mace was sealed (including the clause that Loras would join the KG), offering this as way to make things go smoothly for the Tyrells.

After all, we also know that Olenna and Margaery didn't come up with the murder plot - they didn't take Littlefinger and his agents at their word but rather questioned Sansa directly in ASoS. It is only when Sansa confirms the tales they already heard that Joff's fate is sealed.

To be sure, Sansa would have been sacrificed if they had no other choice. But she was a safety precaution, not the lamb they wanted to slaughter in any case.

In that sense - both parties in the poisoning plot would have made some adjustments to the thing on their own and together while they were already in KL.

[Colonel Green]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That simple story doesn't seem to make a lot of sense if you think about it. Sansa got the hairnet from Littlefinger via Dontos, meaning his original plan was to use Sansa as a potential scapegoat as well

I don't think that follows at all.  The hairnet has a role in what the Tyrells understand the plot to be -- it doesn't need to serve any purpose beyond that, since Littlefinger's plan is to dupe the Tyrells as well.

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion only became a good potential scapegoat when Littlefinger told Tywin about the Willas plan and arranged the marriage between Sansa and Tyrion.

I don't agree there, either, and based on the amount of advance work involved in things like locating the Essosi jousting dwarves and cajoling Joffrey into what to do with them, Littlefinger has to have had that in the pipeline for quite a while.

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Vice versa, the Tyrells would have been aware of the hairnet plan from the start since Olenna took the poison from the net - but they were also undermining the Sansa scapegoat idea with their own plan of marrying Sansa to Willas. Had she not told Dontos about that she would have never married Tyrion in the first place and Olenna wouldn't have allowed anything to happen to this price and her claim.

Per GRRM, she would have, had it come to it.  Note that the Tyrells avoid just asking the Lannisters for Sansa or taking any overt actions to marry her to Willas until after the wedding, which is the point where they'd know whether she was actually needed to take the fall or not.

[John Suburbs]

On 5/9/2020 at 2:47 AM, Nevets said:

Not only does Margaery have to worry about getting beat up, they have to worry about Loras.  Cersei told Ned that if Jaime had known Robert hit her, Jaime would have killed him.  And Jaime is calm, cool, and collected compared to Loras.  One helping of Kingslayer stew, coming up.  By the way, Loras's inclusion in the KG was Mace's doing, not Olenna and Margaery's.

 

With respect to having a child, it is worth noting that Joffrey is only 13 years old.  He may be unable to produce a child right now.  They make have to wait on him for a year or two.

Now I'm seriously confused.  What is LF trying to accomplish, other than getting Joffrey into trouble, or maybe a dead Stark kid.  I don't see either of those helping him.  And if Joffrey's supposed to do something, he's taking his time.  Bran fell on the last day before their scheduled departure.

 

Sorry, but that is nonsense. Joffrey has not shown even the slightest displeasure toward Margaery, nor is there any reason why he should. Neither Margery nor Lady O are the slightest bit concerned about Joffrey, and there is no reason to think that Margaer's cannot continue to use her already demonstrated ability to manipulate Joffrey well into the future. There is also no reason to think the Tyrells would suddenly be concerned about Loras when they were the ones who put him in the KG specifically to protect Margaery in the first place. Mace does not do anything without his mother's approval. This is demonstrated clearly and inarguably in the text multiple times.

Joffrey is almost 14. But even a year or two is far better than five years for Tommen, and at least Joffrey can consummate right now, whereas Tommen's marriage can be set aside at any time for any reason until he does. 13-14yo boys father children all the time; as long as he has reached puberty, he can father a child.

LF is trying to sow discord between wolf and lion. Who knows what Joffrey may have attempted before Bran fell? He got beaten up by Robb with a tourney sword, and now he's challenging him to live steel? He knows Robb will not kill the crown prince, but if Joffrey manages to cut Robb with a little nightsoil on the blade . . .? It's not easy to just kill the child of a high lord, even for a prince. 

[John Suburbs]

On 5/9/2020 at 11:15 AM, Lord Varys said:

Discussing those issues with @John Suburbs really leads nowhere. He really has some sort or very fixed view on things that clash at multiple points with the text as written.

There are some mysteries yet to be resolved about the poisoning plot - for instance, when and why exactly Olenna and Littlefinger started to collaborate on the murder of Joffrey - but the broad strokes are clear. We can even make pretty good guesses who knew about the plot or had to play a role in it: Olenna, Margaery, Alerie, Garlan and possibly his wife Leonette were directly involved. Mace may have been pushed by his mother, wife, and daughter to demand the head of Tyrion to weaken the Lannisters some more (although it stands to reason he didn't know about the poisoning as such since it was done to correct one of his bad decisions - to insist Loras join the KG), but Loras likely knew nothing (since the point of the entire exercise was to prevent him from eventually murdering Joffrey). Taena Merryweather may also have been briefed to incriminate Tyrion ... or may have done that on her own accord, difficult to say.

On Littlefinger's end of the table the Kettleblacks and Dontos were also in the know up to a point.

It also seems clear to me that Olenna's last offer to Sansa was genuine - had she said she wanted to travel to Highgarden with her after the wedding for a visit, Olenna would have her people exonerate Sansa of all accusations during the trial if she had not suddenly disappeared (likely by ways of having Margaery herself, her cousins, Alerie, and Olenna herself her giving testimony that Sansa were nowhere near that goblet or had even tried to prevent Tyrion from putting the poison in). The Tyrells would have made Tyrion the sole scapegoat and Olenna and Mace would have made Sansa Willas' wife no matter what Tywin tried to do to prevent that.

I have fixed views but the winers don't? At least my fixed views are backed by the facts while the wine needs all kinds of speculation and assumption to make it work, and most of that runs contrary to the facts as well.

Please show me any facts that suggest Margaery knew the wine was poisoned. Was it when she called Joffrey back to her side specifically to share a toast with her? And Garlan, the man who is trying to defuse the tension between Joff and Tyrion, which the wine theory claims is central to the plot? Plus the fact that he is an anointed and by all indications honorable knight who would not stoop to poison to kill a foe, particularly a skinny, unskilled 13yo boy?

And I'm sorry, but you last graf is nonsense. There is no way the Lannisters will allow Sansa to go anywhere when her husband is accused of murder and will very likely be executed. And they most certainly won't allow her to go to Highgarden with the woman who tried to steal her in the first place.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

I don't think that follows at all.  The hairnet has a role in what the Tyrells understand the plot to be -- it doesn't need to serve any purpose beyond that, since Littlefinger's plan is to dupe the Tyrells as well.

But if Tyrion had died in battle as he should have, he could not have served as the scapegoat, no? The plan to murder Joff was made back in Highgarden or on the road back, that much is clear from the fact that there is a hairnet there and it was given Sansa immediately after Littlefinger returned to court.

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

I don't agree there, either, and based on the amount of advance work involved in things like locating the Essosi jousting dwarves and cajoling Joffrey into what to do with them, Littlefinger has to have had that in the pipeline for quite a while.

Oppo and Penny were hired while being in Pentos - the Free City closest to KL, a place Littlefinger could have easily reached while he pretended to travel to the Vale. Chances are not that great he spent weeks in that ship out in the bay. Instead, one imagines he had gotten Joff's approval to hire those dwarfs and then taken steps to do so while he had nothing better to do, anyway. That he worked through Oswell doesn't mean he himself wasn't there - he would want to keep a low profile to ensure that nobody realized he was behind that thing.

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

Per GRRM, she would have, had it come to it.  Note that the Tyrells avoid just asking the Lannisters for Sansa or taking any overt actions to marry her to Willas until after the wedding, which is the point where they'd know whether she was actually needed to take the fall or not.

Sure, she is a potential scapegoat. But also keep in mind that the Lannisters act very quickly and in an unusual manner by marrying Sansa to Tyrion without any preparation at all. The Tyrells plan the Willas-Sansa match as a flawless match, i.e. with Mace formally asking Tywin for permission and him being forced to agree.

Things like Taena incriminating Tyrion later on or Garlan and Leonette sitting next to Tyrion, and Garlan singing Tyrion's praise every time they meet certainly indicates they might have been aware of the Tyrion scapegoat angle as well. They would have seen that this might work even better after realizing how bad the relationship between the king and his uncle was.

[John Suburbs]

On 5/10/2020 at 10:01 AM, Walda said:

True. Your example is one of the more singular proofs. Most of mine are weaker and have to be considered in conjunction with each other and usually have equally good alternative explinations when taken individually. But they all lead me to the conclusion that Shae (and Bronn, and Lady Tanda, and Ser Gyles, and the surviving Antler Men, and Ser Balon Swann, to name just a few) are hidden daggers for Petyr Baelish. I suspect there is a hidden entrance to Lady Tanda's through Lollys' room, which is why Shae drugs her and Symon covers up the noise of treasonous guests coming and going. 

It is not a plot point, but another way Shae is associated with the Purple Wedding is her appearance after death. 

(AFfC, Ch.3 Cersei I)

This chapter seems to have a lot of allusions to death by strangulation, most probably foreshadowing Cersei's own. 

It also seems to me that if word of Cersei's fornications with Taena gets to the High Sparrow, the Kettleblacks et al could put a construction on her previous dealings with Shae, and her instructions to them in this chapter, that could see Cersei on trial for the murder of Shae.

I've long suspected Bronn as an LF man as well, but he seems to have switched his loyalties to Tyrion, at least for a while. If LF wanted Tyrion gone, Bronn had ample opportunity to make that happen while they were in KL, so I'm thinking at that point, he probably figured he could do better with a son of Casterly Rock than a landless lord who could be stripped of his titles at any time.

Lady Tanda? That would surprise me. I can see LF manipulating her in some way, but as an actual operative, no. She's not all that bright.

Ser Gyles? You mean Lord Gyles, Cersei's MoC? Possible, but I don't see any connection. He never struck me as all too bright either.

The Antler Men? Certainly not. They were plotting to put Stannis on the throne, which would all but ruin Petyr.

Balon Swann. Interesting, but I don't see any evidence. There was that whisper between Balon and Dontos that one time, but this was long before LF would have recruited Dontos to be his go-tween, surely?

My only other candidate would be Mandon Moore. Tyrion thinks Cersei used Manny to kill him on the Blackwater, but the fact is he was appointed to the KG on Jon Arryn's recommendation, although neither Jon nor Robert cared for him all that much. But Jon was desperate to please his erratic, unstable wife, who was desperate to please Littlefinger. So LF pressuring Lysa to pressure Jon to put Mandon on the KG is not all that farfetched. 

 

Well, Shae did die of strangulation, after all. And Kettleblack has already fingered Cersei for the murder of the previous High Septon, while Lancel has done the same for the death of Robert, so I don't see how a little lesbianism and the murder of a whore would put her in worse trouble than she's already in. But I guess every little bit would help. At this point, though, I don't see the KB's doing this at the direction or for the benefit of LF, but to save their own skins.

 

[John Suburbs]

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But if Tyrion had died in battle as he should have, he could not have served as the scapegoat, no? The plan to murder Joff was made back in Highgarden or on the road back, that much is clear from the fact that there is a hairnet there and it was given Sansa immediately after Littlefinger returned to court.

Oppo and Penny were hired while being in Pentos - the Free City closest to KL, a place Littlefinger could have easily reached while he pretended to travel to the Vale. Chances are not that great he spent weeks in that ship out in the bay. Instead, one imagines he had gotten Joff's approval to hire those dwarfs and then taken steps to do so while he had nothing better to do, anyway. That he worked through Oswell doesn't mean he himself wasn't there - he would want to keep a low profile to ensure that nobody realized he was behind that thing.

Sure, she is a potential scapegoat. But also keep in mind that the Lannisters act very quickly and in an unusual manner by marrying Sansa to Tyrion without any preparation at all. The Tyrells plan the Willas-Sansa match as a flawless match, i.e. with Mace formally asking Tywin for permission and him being forced to agree.

Things like Taena incriminating Tyrion later on or Garlan and Leonette sitting next to Tyrion, and Garlan singing Tyrion's praise every time they meet certainly indicates they might have been aware of the Tyrion scapegoat angle as well. They would have seen that this might work even better after realizing how bad the relationship between the king and his uncle was.

You see how the wine theory continues to collapse in on itself, Varys? If the plot had been hatched at Highgarden or on the road back or at any time before Sansa and Lady O have their little chat about Joffrey, then why is Lady O still confused by these "disturbing tales"? The only person who was telling her that Joff was anything but a sick little monkey has admitted that he lied.

Alternatively, if Lady O is finally learning the truth about Joffrey from Sansa, that means LF has never confessed his lie and would have been perfectly willing to let Margaery be dragged off to her fate with old worm lips. So why on earth would she trust him now when he says he has a plan to save Margy, especially when that plan is for Lady O to take all the risks, not just with herself but her entire family, while the known liar and backstabber is safe and sound on his boat way out in the bay? Where do people get the idea that Lady Olenna Tyrell is this big of an idiot?

How could the Tyrells possibly expect to marry Sansa to Willas now that Joffrey is dead and Margaery "marriage" to Tommen can be set aside at any time for any reason? Do they not think that stealing Sansa from them and claiming the north for themselves would prompt the Lannisters to rethink this "marriage" and the alliance itself?

I'm telling you, none of the facts fit with the wine. The physical facts of the two poisonings are wildly askew; the logistics of this "plan" are impossible to predict; the motivations of the principal plotters run completely contrary to their actions; and the outcome sets both of their games back significantly. There is literally nothing in the text that supports the wine, while everything supports the pie.

[divica]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

You see how the wine theory continues to collapse in on itself, Varys? If the plot had been hatched at Highgarden or on the road back or at any time before Sansa and Lady O have their little chat about Joffrey, then why is Lady O still confused by these "disturbing tales"? The only person who was telling her that Joff was anything but a sick little monkey has admitted that he lied.

Alternatively, if Lady O is finally learning the truth about Joffrey from Sansa, that means LF has never confessed his lie and would have been perfectly willing to let Margaery be dragged off to her fate with old worm lips. So why on earth would she trust him now when he says he has a plan to save Margy, especially when that plan is for Lady O to take all the risks, not just with herself but her entire family, while the known liar and backstabber is safe and sound on his boat way out in the bay? Where do people get the idea that Lady Olenna Tyrell is this big of an idiot?

How could the Tyrells possibly expect to marry Sansa to Willas now that Joffrey is dead and Margaery "marriage" to Tommen can be set aside at any time for any reason? Do they not think that stealing Sansa from them and claiming the north for themselves would prompt the Lannisters to rethink this "marriage" and the alliance itself?

I'm telling you, none of the facts fit with the wine. The physical facts of the two poisonings are wildly askew; the logistics of this "plan" are impossible to predict; the motivations of the principal plotters run completely contrary to their actions; and the outcome sets both of their games back significantly. There is literally nothing in the text that supports the wine, while everything supports the pie.

This isn t true. 

What really doesn t make sense is that Olena and LF would work together to kill a king. 

The list why this sounds impossible is huge, but I will give some examples. 

Why would Olena trust LF in a plot to kill the king when the Lannister have always been supporting LF? 

Why would olena not try to kill LF in order to not have to worry about him turning on her? 

Why wouldn t the tyrells suspect LF kidnapped Sansa? He was the only one who knew that there would be a lot of confusion that could be used to kidnap her and alayne stone isn t exactly hiden...

Why would Olena need LF to kill joffrey? Does anyone think she can t buy poison and bring it herself to the banquet? Someone is going to search her? 

The truth is that the whole murder plot is much more believable if LF was working alone. That he needed Sansa to smuggle the poison so that some servant working for him could take it and poison tyrion or the king. 

To me the only doubt we can have is whether LF wanted to kill tyrion or joff. And while tyrion is a much more obvious target and makes much more sense given that he wants Sansa to remarry I can also understand if he wanted to kill joff so that he doesn t tell Tywin about how LF has been giving him horrible advices. From a certain pov joff was a menace for LF if he ever talked to Tywin... And by incriminating tyrion LF probably believed Cersei would end up killing tyrion

[Colonel Green]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

How could the Tyrells possibly expect to marry Sansa to Willas now that Joffrey is dead and Margaery "marriage" to Tommen can be set aside at any time for any reason? Do they not think that stealing Sansa from them and claiming the north for themselves would prompt the Lannisters to rethink this "marriage" and the alliance itself?

Why would they think that, precisely?  The underlying rationale for the Lannister/Tyrell alliance remains the exact same, and the Tyrells are numerically the stronger partner in the alliance, so there is no incentive whatsoever for the Lannisters to dissolve it; that would end badly for them, in all likelihood, at a minimum to no advantage.  That's why only a moron like Cersei subsequently goes about trying this.

1 hour ago, divica said:

The truth is that the whole murder plot is much more believable if LF was working alone. That he needed Sansa to smuggle the poison so that some servant working for him could take it and poison tyrion or the king. 

But we know it wasn't a servant, it was Olenna, the only one who touched the hairnet.

The hairnet does not make any sense purely as a logistical/smuggling matter.  Nobody is searching the servants (or the nobles) as they enter.  The only reason for Sansa to wear the hairnet is that somebody wants at least the option of framing her for the attack.

[divica]

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

But we know it wasn't a servant, it was Olenna, the only one who touched the hairnet.

The hairnet does not make any sense purely as a logistical/smuggling matter.  Nobody is searching the servants (or the nobles) as they enter.  The only reason for Sansa to wear the hairnet is that somebody wants at least the option of framing her for the attack.

Not true. We know that sansa only remembers ollena touching the hairnet.

We have no idea if someone touched it while she was distracted, if she forgot or if someone did it without she sensing it (someone good at stealing).

And if you want to see the hairnet as a framing device it also works. Either someone wanted to frame sansa for poisoning tyrion or someone wanted to frame tyrion for poisoning joff (he used his own wife to smugle poison, that wicked dwarf).I think both options are valid because even if the lannisters didn t like tyrion they needed to find a culprit (and it couldn t be joff).

[Colonel Green]

2 minutes ago, divica said:

Not true. We know that sansa only remembers ollena touching the hairnet.

We have no idea if someone touched it while she was distracted, if she forgot or if someone did it without she sensing it (someone good at stealing).

Removing a stone from a setting on a net attached to a person's head is not something you can do casually without the person noticing.  Moreover, it would be extremely improper for a servant to touch a noble like that in the middle of a feast, which is why Olenna makes such a production out of doing so.