Jump to content

COVID-19 #13 or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Disease


Mr. Chatywin et al.

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Hereward said:

It’s a fucking mad house out there today. I suppose VE Day, plus beautiful weather, plus cabin fever, plus hints the lockdown was going to be loosened tomorrow was always going to result in chaos. But there’s a street party going on outside. I despair. 

Are people at least partying from a distance? When I was on my cycle today I went through loads of villages where people had set up tables near (but not too near) each other. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our town's facebook community has become more and more vocal about abandoning social distancing and masks. People are openly joking about mask wearers. A bar owner (who I know well) rightfully complained that she's being charged for everything a bar usually must pay fees for, despite no business coming in. She's in dire straits. But it was her last line, mentioning re-opening the bar in defiance, that received a couple dozen "DO IT!" and "I cant wait!" comments. Meanwhile, a nurse puts up a beautiful plea for decorum and safety through unity, and her post is barely commented on.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Hereward said:

It’s a fucking mad house out there today. I suppose VE Day, plus beautiful weather, plus cabin fever, plus hints the lockdown was going to be loosened tomorrow was always going to result in chaos. But there’s a street party going on outside. I despair. 

Lets celebrate VE Day by killing off the remnant of that generation! Not like it’s not already rife in care homes.

:(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On my weekly trip to the supermarket today I noticed a big change in the atmosphere. I almost concluded the lockdown was over. Sure there was social distancing to some extent, but many were out and about, very few masks, seemingly less caution. I'm getting the sense that people are bored of it all, and want to go out and enjoy the sun. We'll have to see whether that has any real effect to the numbers in a few weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

Are people at least partying from a distance? When I was on my cycle today I went through loads of villages where people had set up tables near (but not too near) each other. 

To some extent, certainly. But the day is young and, well, booze.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Lets celebrate VE Day by killing off the remnant of that generation! Not like it’s not already rife in care homes.

:(

If only it were just killing off we oldsters.  There's been disturbing news of children who've had C-19 and come through fine are developing weird secondary problems.  I'd find linkies and such, but . . . life.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Are people at least partying from a distance? When I was on my cycle today I went through loads of villages where people had set up tables near (but not too near) each other. 

That seems to be how most of them have started, and then people have just said fuck it and mingled indiscriminately

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I haven't noticed any changes in behaviour re: social distancing in Canada. But spring starts late up here...perhaps people won't be able to help themselves when the weather does eventually warm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I saw link to this study in The Lancet:

Quote

Triple combination of interferon beta-1b, lopinavir–ritonavir, and ribavirin in the treatment of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19: an open-label, randomised, phase 2 trial

It showed an improvement in recovery time from 12 to 7 days compared with the control group. They note that they didn't test the effects on more seriously ill patients, but I think some of the bigger studies going on are also looking at these drugs so maybe we might data on that in the future.

This does sound a bit reminiscent of some of the benefits claimed for remdesivir, although this study has been completed unlike the remdesivir ones.

Like remdesivir I think lopinavir, ritonavir and ribavirin would all be excellent names for magic swords in epic fantasy novels.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, williamjm said:

I saw link to this study in The Lancet:

It showed an improvement in recovery time from 12 to 7 days compared with the control group. They note that they didn't test the effects on more seriously ill patients, but I think some of the bigger studies going on are also looking at these drugs so maybe we might data on that in the future.

This does sound a bit reminiscent of some of the benefits claimed for remdesivir, although this study has been completed unlike the remdesivir ones.

Like remdesivir I think lopinavir, ritonavir and ribavirin would all be excellent names for magic swords in epic fantasy novels.

Are those drugs more common than remdesivir?  I saw a report that said there are only 200,000  doses, or units, or treatments, whatever you call it, of remdesivir available in the US, and it’s given intravenously. Hospitals that have received supplies while other hospitals have not have no idea how their hospitals were chosen to receive the drug. And it’s time-consuming to produce, apparently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Are those drugs more common than remdesivir?  I saw a report that said there are only 200,000  doses, or units, or treatments, whatever you call it, of remdesivir available in the US, and it’s given intravenously. Hospitals that have received supplies while other hospitals have not have no idea how their hospitals were chosen to receive the drug. And it’s time-consuming to produce, apparently.

It looks like they should be much more common. Apparently lopinavir, ritonavir and ribavirin are on the WHO's list of essential medicines that health systems should have. Interferon is commonly used for treating multiple sclerosis. I suppose it might also be important to know how quickly production could be increased for the drugs because even if they are common they're still going to be in demand for treating other diseases.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see from a NYT headline that about 1/3 of all US deaths are either residents of long-term care or workers there. 78,829 deaths, so 26,243 deaths. Wow.

On the other hand....

More than 80% of the deaths in Canada are at facilities. 4,628 deaths, so 3,072 deaths. If we had protected our nursing homes we'd only have 924 deaths. That's a helluva difference.

eta: I don't know what's worse, 2/3rds of the deaths being people not living in institutional settings, or80% living there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I see from a NYT headline that about 1/3 of all US deaths are either residents of long-term care or workers there. 78,829 deaths, so 26,243 deaths. Wow.

On the other hand....

More than 80% of the deaths in Canada are at facilities. 4,628 deaths, so 3,072 deaths. If we had protected our nursing homes we'd only have 924 deaths. That's a helluva difference.

eta: I don't know what's worse, 2/3rds of the deaths being people not living in institutional settings, or80% living there.

I am starting to wonder if a lot of the differences between death tolls per capita in various countries might be largely down to how well they've managed to stop the virus getting into care homes (or about how many people are in those care homes).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, williamjm said:

I am starting to wonder if a lot of the differences between death tolls per capita in various countries might be largely down to how well they've managed to stop the virus getting into care homes (or about how many people are in those care homes).

In Canada I think it's fair to say people try to stay out of LTC facilties for as long as possible. A friend of mine has her 96-year old mom living with her, for example, but my friend is a nurse (now retired) and can deal with issues other people may not have had the skills to deal with. The mom has a clear mind, no issues of dementia.

I regularly try to catch daily press briefings across the country and every provincial premier and the prime minister himself, as well as various other ministers and health care officials, have talked about needing to change the way we look after the aged. The consensus is that Canada is going to have a national conversation on the topic, meaning, the system is going to have to change.

One of the first steps is the federal government announcing $2 B in funding going out to the provinces to top up the salaries of essential workers. It will be left to each province to determine who gets their wages topped up, but categories of workers like PSWs (personal support workers) and janitors and cleaning staff are expected to get paid more. A big issue in LTC facilities has been workers working at several different places and carrying the virus with them from place to place. I read that in the province of Quebec, for example, the job of PSW is an easy entry point into the workforce for refugees, who are allowed to work here, and many are poorly trained and work different jobs so that they have enough to live on. When you are in that position you can understand the desire to work through illness, and may be part of the huge problem Quebec has had in nursing homes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

In Canada I think it's fair to say people try to stay out of LTC facilties for as long as possible. A friend of mine has her 96-year old mom living with her, for example, but my friend is a nurse (now retired) and can deal with issues other people may not have had the skills to deal with. The mom has a clear mind, no issues of dementia.

I regularly try to catch daily press briefings across the country and every provincial premier and the prime minister himself, as well as various other ministers and health care officials, have talked about needing to change the way we look after the aged. The consensus is that Canada is going to have a national conversation on the topic, meaning, the system is going to have to change.

One of the first steps is the federal government announcing $2 B in funding going out to the provinces to top up the salaries of essential workers. It will be left to each province to determine who gets their wages topped up, but categories of workers like PSWs (personal support workers) and janitors and cleaning staff are expected to get paid more. A big issue in LTC facilities has been workers working at several different places and carrying the virus with them from place to place. I read that in the province of Quebec, for example, the job of PSW is an easy entry point into the workforce for refugees, who are allowed to work here, and many are poorly trained and work different jobs so that they have enough to live on. When you are in that position you can understand the desire to work through illness, and may be part of the huge problem Quebec has had in nursing homes.

The problem with long term care homes and nursing homes is the minimal staffing and the low pay of the staff that do work there. A PSW in a LTC or nursing home will usually be paid just above minimum wage. Same with a housekeeper or kitchen staff. And they will almost always be part time so the employer does not pay benefits. That is why the work more than one job. When a PSW comes to work at a hospital, they think they have died and gone to heaven as the average pay can be $24 to $26/ hour. This can be more than an RPN can make at the LTC or nursing home. The NDP had sponsored a bill for a minimum standard of care of 4 hours a day for LTC home residents. This passed second reading but died on the order paper before the last provincial election. The Ford govt. has shown no inclination to bring it back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, maarsen said:

The problem with long term care homes and nursing homes is the minimal staffing and the low pay of the staff that do work there. A PSW in a LTC or nursing home will usually be paid just above minimum wage. Same with a housekeeper or kitchen staff. And they will almost always be part time so the employer does not pay benefits. That is why the work more than one job. When a PSW comes to work at a hospital, they think they have died and gone to heaven as the average pay can be $24 to $26/ hour. This can be more than an RPN can make at the LTC or nursing home. The NDP had sponsored a bill for a minimum standard of care of 4 hours a day for LTC home residents. This passed second reading but died on the order paper before the last provincial election. The Ford govt. has shown no inclination to bring it back.

It's like you ignored everything I said about having a national conversation about changing the way we look after the elderly. That means changing everything, no? :) 

And in the meantime, down south in the US, I have been ignoring the numbers, but with Trump saying today that maybe there will be 95,000 deaths in the US before this is over, maybe more, I just wonder what kind of drugs he's doing. It'll be 80,000 deaths by the end of today and it's only the 9th of May. It will be 100,000 deaths by the end of May the way things are going

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

And in the meantime, down south in the US, I have been ignoring the numbers, but with Trump saying today that maybe there will be 95,000 deaths in the US before this is over, maybe more, I just wonder what kind of drugs he's doing. It'll be 80,000 deaths by the end of today and it's only the 9th of May. It will be 100,000 deaths by the end of May the way things are going

The average daily U.S. death toll would have to drop by about 600+ deaths per day by tomorrow (too lazy...no, honestly, too horrified, to do the math right now), in order to come in at 100k deaths by June 1.

But Trump is just going to claim that the death toll is a rigged number used by the media to hurt his reelection chances. And I'm not just claiming that; it's his actual strategy.

Quote

President Trump has complained to advisers about the way coronavirus deaths are being calculated, suggesting the real numbers are actually lower — and a number of his senior aides share this view, according to sources with direct knowledge.

Once the death toll hits right around that 95k number, start expecting to see the administration claiming victory and any new deaths reported are fake news.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, with the rate over the last couple of weeks and if you even out the weekend slumps in reporting you'd expect the 100k mark in 2 weeks. Which would also mean that it's basically locked in from the people who are already infected, even if you could prevent all future infections from today.

Instead the rate is likely to increase as the easing of lock down runs through the system :( I can't get my head around pretending this is all fine

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have said this before, I have difficulty wrapping my head around US numbers. Canadians have a long standing habit of using a rule of thumb that whatever happens in the US will happen in Canada at roughly 1/10th the rate. So we should have about 135,000 cases and roughly 8,000 deaths. Instead, we have 67,000 cases and 4,600 deaths. In some ways many people are looking over their shoulders and wondering if we will be hit by a God forsaken second wave that catches us up. I realize the actual answer is we took it seriously immediately and went into lockdown sooner. The worst hit areas of the country are Ontario and Quebec, where the population is most dense, but also where there's a lot of travel into New York state, where nobody knew it was spreading like wildfire, in from Europe.

Even so, some people are angry our governent didn't shut down the border with the US much more quickly, which was difficult (ie impossible) to do unilaterally because of treaties and also because our economies are so tightly intertwined. In retrospect we should have shut down travel with Europe much more quickly. The Canadian governent asked people not to travel during spring break, but people looked at the news stories and figured the US, for one, was perfectly safe. I so envy Australia, but we are not an island continent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Fragile Bird said:

I have difficulty wrapping my head around US numbers.

This is how genocide / etc. works.  It's the rational response of hypercapitalism = profits over all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...