COVID-19 #13 or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Disease

[DMC]

19 minutes ago, Fez said:

This mostly wasn't players I think (certainly not the 40% of samples that came from women). The Diamondbacks for instance sent in 362 samples. I think its mostly front office staff, business side staff, stadium management staff, executives, etc. So I don't think it's a study of millionaires, but it is a study of people who are doing well enough for themselves.

That's why I don't think this means much - the sample is still very skewed towards younger, wealthier and healthier people (that disproportionately can and have taken necessary precautions, probably before any government orders too).  I don't know how you extrapolate a testing sample from a baseball team's staff to a random sample of the general population.  That study's importance is the data you get on the sixty cases that tested positive for antibodies. 

[karaddin]

7 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I don't expect people to remember what I post, but my long running thesis is that the average person is lazy, greedy and dumb.

Is "can't wrap my head around x" a phrase that's in use in the US? I discovered last week that a bunch of things I thought were coming pan-English phrases aren't even used all over Australia so it might just be that. I'm not actually looking to understand the logic (or lack thereof 0), I'm expressing exasperation with it. Essentially it's implying the same thing you're saying above.

@Fez I'm hoping that will indeed be the case once things start getting worse, that once more people start being directly impacted they'll feel it more seriously. The assholes that have fallen for the AstroTurfing and conspiracy theories aren't going to change, but hopefully they're a small minority.

Fair point on the collective mourning front, particularly in contrast to after terrorist bombings since those are single discrete events which immediately move on to the aftermath.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, karaddin said:

Is "can't wrap my head around x" a phrase that's in use in the US? I discovered last week that a bunch of things I thought were coming pan-English phrases aren't even used all over Australia so it might just be that. I'm not actually looking to understand the logic (or lack thereof 0), I'm expressing exasperation with it. Essentially it's implying the same thing you're saying above.

Are you a fan of Archer? 

[karaddin]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Are you a fan of Archer? 

Not even sure who or what you're referring to here.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

18 minutes ago, karaddin said:

Not even sure who or what you're referring to here.

A funny adult cartoon that has a perfect episode regarding what you're talking about.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Triskele said:

ETA:  One potential problem with this piece that occurs to me is that shutdown proponents are not exactly ignorant of all of this but are saying that early re-opens will fuck a lot of things up and still lead to all of these economic pain results and that there's just no easy way out of this trap. 

I'm not really sure what he's getting at in the article. 

I agree with him that the economy and the pandemic are not either/or propositions, but the Trump administration has turned it into an either/or because of its feckless response. And I just can't imagine that people will be thrilled to go back to work thinking that they might be bringing back a death sentence to their families.

Shutting down the economy was supposed to buy us time to ramp up testing and tracing, but the administration refused to do so. But I don't think throwing the economy open, leading to a couple of million more deaths (almost certainly an undercount), will make anyone any better off than freezing the economy.

I mean, at what point do people start refusing to work, or start rioting? He brings up some good points, but I'm not sure those points would fare any better with an open economy, and bringing those points up without offering realistic solutions is just kind of empty posturing, imo.

For example, I have 2 kids that are high-risk, and my ex-wife has breast cancer, so I've already told my boss that when/if they bring me back, I'll be exclusively working from home so I don't have to worry about going in somewhere every day that I might bring the virus back with me. I've already said I'll quit if I'm told I have to go in.

That's a luxury for me, but I imagine a lot of people who don't have that luxury feel the same.

ETA: This analysis is specific to the U.S. I imagine other countries that aren't run by complete morons may be able to figure out a workaround.

[Toth]

Crap. I feel like in light of the current Corona protest insanity I should create a lesson about Astroturfing. And yet I'm currently in the topic "conflicts and conflict solving" with my 11th graders and can't see a fluid way to switch towards that. Crap...

[Ran]

 

4 hours ago, Triskele said:

ETA:  One potential problem with this piece that occurs to me is that shutdown proponents are not exactly ignorant of all of this but are saying that early re-opens will fuck a lot of things up and still lead to all of these economic pain results and that there's just no easy way out of this trap. 

This is true, but I think everyone who is thinking seriously about it is trying to determine what is the path that best balances all public health concerns in the long term.

The ideal method, according to a paper I saw (will try to dig it up), was that you basically ease restrictions to  what is a socially sustainable level that keeps R at 1 or under long term, and then you just hold steady. Cycling up and down at unexpected intervals doesn't really work economically or socially in the long term.

Then there's the question of whether holding tight for a bit longer to get in place infrastructure or technological innovations that in theory could reduce the need for social distancing and thus leading to more freedom sustainably is better than going ahead now with loosening restrictions even if it undermines those infrastructure/innovation efforts.

 

 

[Fragile Bird]

I had a bit of insomnia so I got up and turned on the television and caught an update on South Korea and China.

China reported 17 new cases today. 10 cases were brought in by people returning from overseas. But. There were 5 new cases in Wuhan, the first cases since early April. If those cases were brought in by people who travelled outside of Wuhan, that's one thing, but if the people have no links to travellers, where the heck did the virus come from?

Meanwhile, Disneyland in Shanghai opened up at less than 30% capacity and tickets sold out within minutes.

The business channel I was watching reported 86 new cases in South Korea, which I don't see on Worldometer, so I'm not sure if it was an absolutely up-to-date report or the total of a couple of days. The cases relate to nightclubs in Seoul. I was very surprised when I heard about the nightclubs being opened. Korean health officials are tracking the movements of 1 man, who visited 3 nightclubs on May 2, and have tracked 5,500 people, all of whom they will test. So far they have tested 3,000 people and 86 have tested positive.

Texas has allowed restaurants to open in stages, starting at allowing 25% capacity. There is so much pent-up demand there are stories of line-ups of more than an hour at many places. You have to wonder what next week's new cases will look like.

[Loge]

17 hours ago, Paladin of Ice said:

Are far right parties like AFD involved in protests and working against lockdowns and such? I saw some online comments where people who aren’t far right were talking about the right trying to adopt any position to undermine the government or get into power and generally stoking resentment.

The AfD or parts of it  are trying to capitalise on discontent with the lockdown, as does the FDP. Opinion polls show a decline of these parties, however. Same with the Greens, who have a lot of anti-vaxxers in heir voter base. Media coverage of the anti-lockdown protests has been rather slow. The gist of it is essentially that the protesters are a haphazard coalition of the discontent. 

[Jeor]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Texas has allowed restaurants to open in stages, starting at allowing 25% capacity. There is so much pent-up demand there are stories of line-ups of more than an hour at many places. You have to wonder what next week's new cases will look like.

I think it's going to be a slow burn. I know there's been talk of the incubation period being around 5 days, but I have a theory that the serious cases happen a couple of weeks into it. My hypothesis is that the first people who get it could be the healthy, mobile people who are out and about. These are the people who will catch it from events, eating out at restaurants, being out in protest groups. The deaths only come in the next link or two in the chain when these relatively healthy people pass it onto the vulnerable, elderly people who have stayed at home, either through family or aged care workers etc.

If that line of thinking is correct (and I admit it's just speculation), I think we will see a couple more weeks of relatively "ok" numbers before they start rising again in the USA.

[Tears of Lys]

6 hours ago, Toth said:

Crap. I feel like in light of the current Corona protest insanity I should create a lesson about Astroturfing. And yet I'm currently in the topic "conflicts and conflict solving" with my 11th graders and can't see a fluid way to switch towards that. Crap...

Actually, that seems like it could be a great way to get these young minds to THINK.  Not in the way of pushing a particular idea or viewpoint, but getting them to come up with their own ways of resolving that conflict between getting people back to work vs. slowing the spread of disease.  IOW, rather than teaching them WHAT to think, teach them HOW to think.

 

TTYL.  I'm on my way to my husband's first chemo treatment.

[Fragile Bird]

2 hours ago, Tears of Lys said:

TTYL.  I'm on my way to my husband's first chemo treatment.

Keeping my fingers crossed for you guys. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Tears of Lys said:

TTYL.  I'm on my way to my husband's first chemo treatment.

Very sorry to hear. 

[Prue]

7 hours ago, Ran said:

 

This is true, but I think everyone who is thinking seriously about it is trying to determine what is the path that best balances all public health concerns in the long term.

The ideal method, according to a paper I saw (will try to dig it up), was that you basically ease restrictions to  what is a socially sustainable level that keeps R at 1 or under long term, and then you just hold steady. Cycling up and down at unexpected intervals doesn't really work economically or socially in the long term.

 

Interesting, that seems to be what is done in Germany now that R was below 1. Restrictions are reduced, but with the failsafe that regions have to go into lockdown again if there are more than 50 new covid19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. That was reached immediately in a rural area where more than 100 workers in a meat processing plant were infected. So they didn't get out of lockdown at all in that area.

[DanteGabriel]

2 hours ago, Tears of Lys said:

TTYL.  I'm on my way to my husband's first chemo treatment.

What a thing to have to go through during the pandemic. Good luck to you and your family, Tears.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I too hope everything goes well, Tears. 

Thankfully your hubby has a good wife to help him through this. 

[felice]

13 hours ago, Toth said:

Crap. I feel like in light of the current Corona protest insanity I should create a lesson about Astroturfing. And yet I'm currently in the topic "conflicts and conflict solving" with my 11th graders and can't see a fluid way to switch towards that. Crap...

Isn't astroturfing essentially manufacturing an artificial conflict, which has unique considerations for solving compared to other types of conflict? It applies on a one-to-one level too; a student could easily get into a conflict with a victim of astroturfing, and needs to be able to recognise and handle that situation. And if the student has themself been taken in by astroturfing, a discussion of the topic might help them recognise it, even if that possibility isn't directly addressed.

[williamjm]

11 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I had a bit of insomnia so I got up and turned on the television and caught an update on South Korea and China.

China reported 17 new cases today. 10 cases were brought in by people returning from overseas. But. There were 5 new cases in Wuhan, the first cases since early April. If those cases were brought in by people who travelled outside of Wuhan, that's one thing, but if the people have no links to travellers, where the heck did the virus come from?

With so many people infected in the past it was probably inevitable some mild or asymptomatic cases would slip through the net and eventually infect others. I saw in one of the news stories that the Chinese have been finding asymptomatic people with the virus but they don't count those as a 'case' in the statistics so it's maybe misleading to look at how long it's been since the last 'case'.

[Ran]

Speaking of Asian outbreaks, I found this piece regarding South Korea eye-opening. Hadn't realized there was so much stigma against LGBTQ people there. Google tells me some regions have no or few anti-discrimination laws and so on. This will be a challenge for place that have any sort of stigmatized groups.