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Tywin et al.

COVID-19 #13 or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Disease

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26 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

615 deaths in Brazil. Only surprise is how long it took to get to the higher end of the daily deaths totals with that fuckwit in charge. 

Because most governors and many government officials tried to do their best to avoid the worst. Without the support it is of course not enough

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1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

615 deaths in Brazil. Only surprise is how long it took to get to the higher end of the daily deaths totals with that fuckwit in charge. 

Much like here, the official figures are simply wrong - very wrong; whilst more local concerns did things without being told to by the government.

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Posted (edited)

I was reading about the French guy doctors now say was treated for Covid-19 back in December, when they first thought it was just pneumonia. Neither he nor his family did any travelling. They are guessing his wife had it and gave it to him, while being asymptomatic. She worked in a supermarket, near the airport., and may have been exposed to Chinese tourists or travellers who had been in China.

Quote

The doctors had originally collected the samples to test for the flu using a polymerase chain reaction test — the same test used to detect the new coronavirus — which searches for bits of viral genetic material. 

The patient, a 43-year-old man from Bobigny, likely became infected sometime between Dec. 14 and Dec. 22, according to the BBC. He presented to the hospital with a dry cough, a fever and trouble breathing on Dec. 27. 

 

He was sick for 15 days and had infected his two children, but not his wife, Dr. Yves Cohen, the head of resuscitation at the Avicenne and Jean Verdier hospitals in Paris told France's BFM TV on May 3. It's too early to know whether or not this patient was France's "patient zero," he added. 

 

The patient's wife worked at a supermarket near Charles de Gaulle airport and could have come in contact with those arriving from China, according to the BBC. It's possible that the  patient's wife had been infected first, perhaps asymptomatically, Cohen said. “All the negative PCRs for pneumonia must be tested again," Cohen said. "The virus was probably circulating.”

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-france-patient-zero-december.html

Edited by Fragile Bird

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1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

615 deaths in Brazil. Only surprise is how long it took to get to the higher end of the daily deaths totals with that fuckwit in charge. 

I'm not too surprised because I sadly suspect the official figures are much higher and have been for some time. I guess what's more surprising is that we have these higher figures at all

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I was reading about the French guy doctors now say was treated for Covid-19 back in December, when they first thought it was just pneumonia. Neither he nor his family did any travelling. They are guessing his wife had it and gave it to him, while being asymptomatic. She worked in a supermarket, near the airport., and may have been exposed to Chinese tourists or travellers who had been in China.

This is the original article if people are interested. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643

Besides being tested twice, the patient had all landmarks of a typical COVID19 case.

The question remains. Why didn't he (or his wife and children) start an outbreak back then in December in France? At their respective very public  work places, children's schools or even the hospital. Precautions were little to non existent. Or an outbreak was actually started and wasn't detected till late February? How? It goes against everything we know about the disease now.

Now, German researchers are also saying they have evidence of SARS-COV2 spreading late last year in Europe. I cannot find the article now.

Is this actually possible? I'm at lost.

 

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I remember reading that doctors in Italy retroactively thought they must have had cases in November...

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37 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

I remember reading that doctors in Italy retroactively thought they must have had cases in November...

A number of my direct co-workers had the "flu" with breathing problems earlier this year. It was the worst "flu" they ever had according to them and at least one of them has reduced oxygen saturation now.

I have always practiced social distancing with certain co-workers after one told me years ago the diseases come from god and there is no point in avoiding sick people. I even got my boss to install hand disinfectant stations after that because a lot of people at my workplace show up sick for a day or two to demonstrate that they are really sick before going on sick leave.

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

 

Now, German researchers are also saying they have evidence of SARS-COV2 spreading late last year in Europe. I cannot find the article now.

Is this actually possible? I'm at lost.

 

FWIW, a number of Swedish military personnel went to some sort of military athletic games in Wuhan in October, and a bunch of them came back sick in November. All were tested with very early testing, and one was borderline positive -- it's quite likely that the quality of the test available in November was at issue, because the symptoms all fit. I believe they were all isolated until well and nothing came of that. Google shows some reporting that the French delegation to the same athletic event also believe they had a suspicious illness, but not sure if there has been any follow up on that.

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24 minutes ago, Ran said:

FWIW, a number of Swedish military personnel went to some sort of military athletic games in Wuhan in October, and a bunch of them came back sick in November. All were tested with very early testing, and one was borderline positive -- it's quite likely that the quality of the test available in November was at issue, because the symptoms all fit. I believe they were all isolated until well and nothing came of that. Google shows some reporting that the French delegation to the same athletic event also believe they had a suspicious illness, but not sure if there has been any follow up on that.

There was no test for SARS-CoV-2 in November of last year.  No one even knew this disease existed back then, and the sequence of the virus was released in early January, which means that the earliest PCR based tests would have been possible around mid January 2020, at the earliest.  If they were actually tested in November, it would have been for something like influenza.  If the samples from November still exist, it would be easy to test them again with a high quality PCR test.  A lot of countries are retesting early samples from patients that had pneumonia and tested negative for common forms of pneumonia, like influenza.

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6 hours ago, Ran said:

FWIW, a number of Swedish military personnel went to some sort of military athletic games in Wuhan in October, and a bunch of them came back sick in November.

The Chinese insist that the disease was brought to Wuhan by foreign delegations, maybe we should start listening to them. @The Anti-Targ was reporting that he got info that something was going on in Iran also back in November. And the Internet is full od reports of weird flu-like illness in December. 

But if this is the case, it goes against all we know about the covid-19 we are observing now.  Maybe some close related diseases? Maybe is that the reason why there are many who are seemingly immune?

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8 hours ago, Mudguard said:

There was no test for SARS-CoV-2 in November of last year.

This is what I get for skimming articles. You're quite right.

It seems they weren't diagnosed with anything in particular in November, and it was just one of those things. Five of them were tested for antibodies in April, and one was positive, and the doctor in the region who ordered the tests actually said he thought that was probably just someone who got infected in March and doubted the theory, but allowed for the fact that the antibody test was new and there was a chance of false negatives. Four of five being false negatives seems highly unlikely in even some of the less specific tests, however.

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With all of these super-early cases stretching back to November, it seems the likeliest explanation is that COVID-19 somehow mutated into a much more transmissible and/or deadly form over the New Year. I can't think of any other reason why these early cases wouldn't have resulted in epidemics, especially considering it was winter in the northern hemisphere.

If so, that's a concerning sign for a vaccine. Coronaviruses supposedly don't mutate all that much, but this might be evidence that COVID-19 has already done it once.

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1 hour ago, Jeor said:

With all of these super-early cases stretching back to November, it seems the likeliest explanation is that COVID-19 somehow mutated into a much more transmissible and/or deadly form over the New Year. I can't think of any other reason why these early cases wouldn't have resulted in epidemics, especially considering it was winter in the northern hemisphere.

yes

it also raises questions about the possible origins

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3 hours ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

Hang on. I'm no doctor but scans reveal forms of pneumonia, not what caused the pneumonia. There's no way to be absolutely certain that this was Covid-19 with a simple scan, is there?

This being said, it's true there were some very weird flu/-cold-like infections going around the Parisian area through December-January, with symptoms that included shortness of breath. In fact, it's very anecdotal but when I caught the Covid for certain in March the first thing I wondered was whether I could have had it since January.

I have no idea what it all might mean. It does suggest mutation.
I rmember one article somewhere in which a specialist explained that the coronavirus was here to stay, that like the flu it would become a seasonal disease. I think this is what we can expect.

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I think Covid is supposed to cause specific changes that are different from other forms of pneumonia, but this is something I read months ago, so don't quote me on that.

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3 hours ago, Jeor said:

With all of these super-early cases stretching back to November, it seems the likeliest explanation is that COVID-19 somehow mutated into a much more transmissible and/or deadly form over the New Year. I can't think of any other reason why these early cases wouldn't have resulted in epidemics, especially considering it was winter in the northern hemisphere.

If so, that's a concerning sign for a vaccine. Coronaviruses supposedly don't mutate all that much, but this might be evidence that COVID-19 has already done it once.

Wouldn't the more optimistic (no idea if its more likely) explanation be that this is another sign, along with the mass serological tests in NYC, and the various reports of things like "90% of this prison/homeless/other defined population tested positive positive but almost none show symptoms", that perhaps there really are many, many more mild/asymptomatic cases than realized? So the virus was starting to spread back in November/December, and where we thought we were in late February is actually where we were back then?

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on the other hand, based on a representative sample of 1800 people, only 2% of the Luxembourg population has antibodies.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Fez said:

Wouldn't the more optimistic (no idea if its more likely) explanation be that this is another sign, along with the mass serological tests in NYC, and the various reports of things like "90% of this prison/homeless/other defined population tested positive positive but almost none show symptoms", that perhaps there really are many, many more mild/asymptomatic cases than realized? So the virus was starting to spread back in November/December, and where we thought we were in late February is actually where we were back then?

It's a more optimistic view, but if so, where were all the acute, hospitalised cases back then? Surely even if there were lots of mild or asymptomatic cases back in November/December, a certain percentage of them should have been deadly and raised the alarm. It seems weird that it could have incubated for months before then suddenly turning into a deadly disease, and if that was the case, then that would probably just bring us back to the idea that COVID-19 was harmless at first but mutated into something worse. Which has frightening implications for a vaccine. (But also holds out hope it could mutate to something more harmless).

Edited by Jeor

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