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Tywin et al.

COVID-19 #13 or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Disease

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Just now, Jeor said:

It's a more optimistic view, but if so, where were all the acute, hospitalised cases back then? Surely even if there were lots of mild/asymptomatic cases back in November/December, a certain percentage of them should have been deadly. It seems weird that it could have incubated for months before then suddenly turning into a deadly disease, and if that was the case, then that would probably just bring us back to the idea that COVID-19 was harmless at first but mutated into something worse.

Misdiagnosis? If that percentage is low enough that when the population of infected people is small enough, I'd think it would be easy for the number of critical cases to be misdiagnosed as pneumonia from other cases. There are a certain number of people who do need ventilators for other issues after all. And if this scenario did happen, and major hospitals were only seeing a few extra cases, it might not be that hard for health care providers to assume it was just a really bad flu season or that some other normal thing was happening.

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It’s a fucking mad house out there today. I suppose VE Day, plus beautiful weather, plus cabin fever, plus hints the lockdown was going to be loosened tomorrow was always going to result in chaos. But there’s a street party going on outside. I despair. 

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15 minutes ago, Fez said:

Misdiagnosis? If that percentage is low enough that when the population of infected people is small enough, I'd think it would be easy for the number of critical cases to be misdiagnosed as pneumonia from other cases. There are a certain number of people who do need ventilators for other issues after all. And if this scenario did happen, and major hospitals were only seeing a few extra cases, it might not be that hard for health care providers to assume it was just a really bad flu season or that some other normal thing was happening.

Yeah, that's possible - hospitals could have assumed it was flu/pneumonia. I would still think the chances of some hospital picking it up as a new virus would have happened though if it had been circulating for months and causing deaths.

Australia is starting to open up now, although quite cautiously. Keeping international travel ban on which is good. The next month or so will be interesting to see if we've really got a hold of this thing or whether it'll start spiking again. A small spike would be manageable (in the sense that our hospitals have now had time to ramp up and prepare) so wouldn't be a cause for immediate alarm, but it will probably take weeks to know for sure.

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It's also possible that a less infectious "original" strain also led to fewer severe cases.

I know infectiousness and lethality are not necessarily correlated in viruses/diseases, but maybe in this case they were.

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24 minutes ago, Fez said:

Misdiagnosis? If that percentage is low enough that when the population of infected people is small enough, I'd think it would be easy for the number of critical cases to be misdiagnosed as pneumonia from other cases. There are a certain number of people who do need ventilators for other issues after all. And if this scenario did happen, and major hospitals were only seeing a few extra cases, it might not be that hard for health care providers to assume it was just a really bad flu season or that some other normal thing was happening.

Of course is possible that it was misdiagnosed, but the number must remain below a certain threshold before alarms start to ring. This goes against our current understanding of the disease, because, after what we witnessed in Italy, Spain, etc, it is difficult to imagine an scenario where you have this virus circulating and keeping the hospitalizations low enough to not raise eyebrows.

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2 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

It's also possible that a less infectious "original" strain also led to fewer severe cases.

Yes, I think the same, but how is possible we still don't know that?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yes, I think the same, but how is possible we still don't know that?

While I am sure that some part of why we "don't know things yet" about Covid-19 is from the malfeasance of certain governments, surely most of the explanation is simply that good science takes time, and it's only been a bit over FOUR MONTHS since China reported "pneumonia of unknown cause" to the World Health Organization. The name Covid-19 was only created on February 11. Let us not forget how quickly all this developed. 

Real life is not an episode of a TV show. Finding out all we need to know just couldn't possibly happen in just four months and eight days.

Edited by Ormond

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Ormond said:

While I am sure that some part of why we "don't know things yet" about Covid-19 is from the malfeasance of certain governments, surely most of the explanation is simply that good science takes time, and it's only been a bit over FOUR MONTHS since China reported "pneumonia of unknown cause" to the World Health Organization. The name Covid-19 was only created on February 11. Let us not forget how quickly all this developed.

It was a bit of rhetorical question actually, because I know all of that.

Still. if there was a less contagious, less dangerous strains circulating before, what the heck happened in Wuhan in December that suddenly became nasty?  Why are we so sure it started there?

If there is no other strains, what factors made the only strain we know to become a global threat.

Aren't there warning systems in place to check for novel circulating viruses? Reportedly at least few infected reached the hospitals. No attempts were made to identify the virus?

Why are too many people seemingly immune? Is it related?

ETA: Of course assuming that the reports are correct and the virus (or a strain of it) was circulating late last year. This is still not certain.

 

Edited by rotting sea cow

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3 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Hang on. I'm no doctor but scans reveal forms of pneumonia, not what caused the pneumonia. There's no way to be absolutely certain that this was Covid-19 with a simple scan, is there?

This being said, it's true there were some very weird flu/-cold-like infections going around the Parisian area through December-January, with symptoms that included shortness of breath. In fact, it's very anecdotal but when I caught the Covid for certain in March the first thing I wondered was whether I could have had it since January.

I have no idea what it all might mean. It does suggest mutation.
I rmember one article somewhere in which a specialist explained that the coronavirus was here to stay, that like the flu it would become a seasonal disease. I think this is what we can expect.

This thing was going around Canada too in November/ December. I caught some  type of mild flu or cold late in December and the damn thing would not leave me. My daughter kept telling me to see a doctor about it as she said I had pneumonia symptoms including shortness of breath. I am fine now but I have to say I only just shook it off  completely last week.

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2 hours ago, Hereward said:

But there’s a street party going on outside. I despair. 

Yeah, same here. All the talk of what the government's going to do about lockdown is a little beside the point with the pretty clear decline in social distancing that's been going the last few weeks. What the government needs is a plan for how they're going to manage the situation as people take it into their own hands.

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Harvesting, is what they call it; it's already happening, but now it will go into hyperdrive, since here in the USA this is what we want: no tests, no testing, no tracking, no tracing, no medical supplies except those that the private crony corruption has created, and they don't work.

There was a big announcement in NYC that bloomb was going to finance and direct a big tracking-tracing taskforce and agency, but that has utterly disappeared.  Instead, the mayor has chosen to remove the epidemiology for tracking and tracing from its traditional part in the City Health Agency and do ... what with it?  He announced this today, and it makes no fracking sense, particularly since this effort has been handled so well in NYC by the Agency for HIV, ebola and many other diseases.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/08/care-home-residents-harvested-left-to-die-uk-government-herd-immunity

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19056405

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4 hours ago, Hereward said:

It’s a fucking mad house out there today. I suppose VE Day, plus beautiful weather, plus cabin fever, plus hints the lockdown was going to be loosened tomorrow was always going to result in chaos. But there’s a street party going on outside. I despair. 

Are people at least partying from a distance? When I was on my cycle today I went through loads of villages where people had set up tables near (but not too near) each other. 

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Our town's facebook community has become more and more vocal about abandoning social distancing and masks. People are openly joking about mask wearers. A bar owner (who I know well) rightfully complained that she's being charged for everything a bar usually must pay fees for, despite no business coming in. She's in dire straits. But it was her last line, mentioning re-opening the bar in defiance, that received a couple dozen "DO IT!" and "I cant wait!" comments. Meanwhile, a nurse puts up a beautiful plea for decorum and safety through unity, and her post is barely commented on.

 

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5 hours ago, Hereward said:

It’s a fucking mad house out there today. I suppose VE Day, plus beautiful weather, plus cabin fever, plus hints the lockdown was going to be loosened tomorrow was always going to result in chaos. But there’s a street party going on outside. I despair. 

Lets celebrate VE Day by killing off the remnant of that generation! Not like it’s not already rife in care homes.

:(

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On my weekly trip to the supermarket today I noticed a big change in the atmosphere. I almost concluded the lockdown was over. Sure there was social distancing to some extent, but many were out and about, very few masks, seemingly less caution. I'm getting the sense that people are bored of it all, and want to go out and enjoy the sun. We'll have to see whether that has any real effect to the numbers in a few weeks.

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1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

Are people at least partying from a distance? When I was on my cycle today I went through loads of villages where people had set up tables near (but not too near) each other. 

To some extent, certainly. But the day is young and, well, booze.

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2 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Lets celebrate VE Day by killing off the remnant of that generation! Not like it’s not already rife in care homes.

:(

If only it were just killing off we oldsters.  There's been disturbing news of children who've had C-19 and come through fine are developing weird secondary problems.  I'd find linkies and such, but . . . life.  

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4 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Are people at least partying from a distance? When I was on my cycle today I went through loads of villages where people had set up tables near (but not too near) each other. 

That seems to be how most of them have started, and then people have just said fuck it and mingled indiscriminately

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I haven't noticed any changes in behaviour re: social distancing in Canada. But spring starts late up here...perhaps people won't be able to help themselves when the weather does eventually warm. 

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I saw link to this study in The Lancet:

Quote

Triple combination of interferon beta-1b, lopinavir–ritonavir, and ribavirin in the treatment of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19: an open-label, randomised, phase 2 trial

It showed an improvement in recovery time from 12 to 7 days compared with the control group. They note that they didn't test the effects on more seriously ill patients, but I think some of the bigger studies going on are also looking at these drugs so maybe we might data on that in the future.

This does sound a bit reminiscent of some of the benefits claimed for remdesivir, although this study has been completed unlike the remdesivir ones.

Like remdesivir I think lopinavir, ritonavir and ribavirin would all be excellent names for magic swords in epic fantasy novels.

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