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COVID-19 #13 or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Disease


Mr. Chatywin et al.

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1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Honestly, the 15ish hour flight to London is probably the one that is health-wise the most 'risky',

It's actually 9 hours if it's a direct flight, but I get what you mean - I go back and forth every other day about weather I should travel or hold off till early to mid june. Also, re: the app, I would imagine it's the govt app launched in April - there are significant privacy issues with it, but apparently the govt are working on it - it's voluntary at the moment, but just like the Aadhaar card, you can't exactly do a lot of things if you don't have the app installed ( the app is mandatory for govt employees, private employees currently working, people traveling from one city to the other, people who deliver food etc)

I lived in Mumbai very briefly but now when I'm back in India I come to Pune as that's why my parents are at. Didn't know you were in Michigan? Funny that, I was in Ann Arbor for the last three years. I miss the winters.

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5 hours ago, Zorral said:

Beyond this, with the 'mixing' of numbers and the refusal to even want to DO anything to reduce contagion, infection and illness + death, very quickly the US will find itself a pariah country -- particularly as it has been withdrawn from every other kind of health movement for human beings, the environment and the planet -- while having utterly destroyed its own economy, because it didn't know what the eff and then turning around and opening everything that it closed for a far too short time.

Other groups of states and nations who are at the very least trying, will not only refuse to allow people from the US inside their own borders -- will have no need whatsoever to trade with the US either -- particularly since the US is having trade wars with everybody -- maybe even the UK?  I can never quite figure out what's going on there.  But then it's all so insane from the gitgo in both countries, that isn't any surprise.

Boris and the other Brexiters are always keen on boasting about the great trade deal they'll strike with the US, which does make us worry about them giving in to whatever Trump demands.

For now it looks like we'll be quarantining arrivals from the US soon (along with every other country except Ireland and France). I suspect the breadth of the quarantine might be partially to avoid singling out the US.

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Watching a video of my buddy, who I played all three sports with growing up and is a vet showing a video of himself getting tested and freaking out was legit funny, even if it was important for him to do so. Like why can't they make simple PSAs like that? 

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17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Watching a video of my buddy, who I played all three sports with growing up and is a vet showing a video of himself getting tested and freaking out was legit funny, even if it was important for him to do so. Like why can't they make simple PSAs like that? 

There are more than 3 sports!

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Following up on a paper Drosten was part of, there's new a peer-reviewed paper in Cell  (here's a general audience write-up) that finds that T-cells largely do seem to respond to SARS-CoV-2, so these nightmare scenarios of the immune system or vaccines not working are out the door. And like Drosten and co, they found T-cell cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 as well, suggesting that people who have had one of the four common cold coronavirii in the past may have some partial protection which may explain situations of people having very mild or non-existent symptoms.a

The caution about not focusing vaccine efforts on training the immune system on the spike protein alone should be well-taken. I believe the Oxford vaccine, and the mRna-based one that was in phase I trials in the US, both focus on just the spike.

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1 hour ago, Ran said:

Following up on a paper Drosten was part of, there's new a peer-reviewed paper in Cell  (here's a general audience write-up) that finds that T-cells largely do seem to respond to SARS-CoV-2, so these nightmare scenarios of the immune system or vaccines not working are out the door. And like Drosten and co, they found T-cell cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 as well, suggesting that people who have had one of the four common cold coronavirii in the past may have some partial protection which may explain situations of people having very mild or non-existent symptoms.

Interesting information. Specially the last. May it also explain the seemingly immune people who despite sharing close quarters with infected do not get the virus?

 

1 hour ago, Ran said:

The caution about not focusing vaccine efforts on training the immune system on the spike protein alone should be well-taken. I believe the Oxford vaccine, and the mRna-based one that was in phase I trials in the US, both focus on just the spike.

 

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17 hours ago, Raja said:

I lived in Mumbai very briefly but now when I'm back in India I come to Pune as that's why my parents are at. Didn't know you were in Michigan? Funny that, I was in Ann Arbor for the last three years. I miss the winters.

I have lived in the middle of Michigan for the last 10 years. Its about 2 hours from Ann Arbor, just like everything in Michigan is from everything else.

PS - No one misses the winters. Although to be fair much of mid-Michigan benefits from the Great Lakes, so it isnt too harsh here unlike Chicago which gets the worst of it. We do have so many freeze-thaw cycles though that the roads are terrible throughout the state.

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The state of the pandemic has been called off in my country, and quarantine of 14 days is no longer needed on entering the country from other EU countries. Everything is slowly going back to "normal". Today, I rode the bus for the first time after two months, the buses have been running since last week. And schools are partly opening on Monday.

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On 5/14/2020 at 1:07 PM, Ran said:

The big problem is deaths from elderly homes and those receiving home assistance. Just over 75%. If these had been sheltered better in the two most affected regions, deaths would be a lot, lot lower. The hope is that the rest of Sweden, with more time ahead of it, will do better, and so far that seems to be working okay. The region of Skåne, which is Sweden's 3rd most populous and 2nd most densely populated and features our third largest city, has numbers much more comparable to the other Nordic countries despite having the same approach as Stockholm.

I'm not trying to argue the best strategy here, as I think that discussion is better left (for people like me) until we know more, but just glancing at this statement: aren't you comparing apples to oranges?

Basically, if you want to separate the country into bits in Sweden, you should do the same for the other Nordic countries as well, no? Which means you probably should compare Stockholm numbers to Oslo/København/Helsinki numbers, and Skåne numbers to (a bit uncertain here) Bergen/Stavanger numbers (which is the second most popoulus city in DK? Odense, Aarhus, some other place? Don't really know on the top of my head).

For Norway, the difference between Bergen and Stavanger is that the greater Stavanger area is quite densely populated, with Sola, Sandnes and Randaberg adding about 100 000 more people within a fifteen minute drive.

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I just noticed that Worldometer finally added another column for population, which means I don’t have to constantly search for numbers if I’m trying to make (obsessive) comparisons!

It’s remarkable how consistent things are in Russia. Every day they report slightly more than 10,000 new cases and about 100 deaths. I see they mixed things up a bit yesterday and today, reporting 93 deaths yesterday and 113 today.

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5 minutes ago, Rorshach said:

Basically, if you want to separate the country into bits in Sweden, you should do the same for the other Nordic countries as well, no? Which means you probably should compare Stockholm numbers to Oslo/København/Helsinki numbers, and Skåne numbers to (a bit uncertain here) Bergen/Stavanger numbers (which is the second most popoulus city in DK? Odense, Aarhus, some other place? Don't really know on the top of my head).

Midjytlland's region is pretty comparable to Skåne in terms of population, though about 20% less dense. They've had 69 deaths, and the last I checked Skåne was at like 90 a week ago. 

It's generally felt that the main difference between the development in most of the rest of the cities of Sweden vs. Stockholm was entirely related to when sportlov was, rather than necessarily a density thing. People in Malmö avoided visiting the hotspot in northern Italy just as the outbreak was exploding, whereas those in Stockholm didn't.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ran said:

 

Midjytlland's region is pretty comparable to Skåne in terms of population, though about 20% less dense. They've had 69 deaths, and the last I checked Skåne was at like 90 a week ago. 

It's generally felt that the main difference between the development in most of the rest of the cities of Sweden vs. Stockholm was entirely related to when sportlov was, rather than necessarily a density thing. People in Malmö avoided visiting the hotspot in northern Italy just as the outbreak was exploding, whereas those in Stockholm didn't.

 

 

Btw, something you may know - does anyone have any idea on whether Malmö was affected by København, or vice versa - and is there any traffic there at all now? I'm guessing it has mostly if not completely closed down.

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48 minutes ago, Rorshach said:

Btw, something you may know - does anyone have any idea on whether Malmö was affected by København, or vice versa - and is there any traffic there at all now? I'm guessing it has mostly if not completely closed down.

People still cross the border for work in both directions. I'm not sure that there's any information on clusters connected to this post Denmark closing its borders, but they would probably sooner be from Denmark spreading it to Malmö than vice versa.

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Meanwhile, Brazil lost it's second Health minister in less than one month after Nelson Teich resigned- allegedly because Bolsonaro said he'll made use of cloroquine recommended for all patients, nevermind the fact that recent results shows it's eficiency it's very doubtful. Although there were other factors in play, most notably Teich learning from the press Bolsonaro issue a decree putting activities like hairdressing in the essential list- the decree was then ignored by literally every governor, even those allied to Bolsonaro. 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, Ran said:

People still cross the border for work in both directions. I'm not sure that there's any information on clusters connected to this post Denmark closing its borders, but they would probably sooner be from Denmark spreading it to Malmö than vice versa.

Thanks! Would expect that, given that København is the hardest hit part of Denmark.

Rogaland, following Folkehelseinstituttet, has had about 400 cases. Not at all unprobable that we've been lucky with the winter holiday, which is one week earlier than it is in Oslo and surrounding regions. Sorry about the link being in Norwegian.

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3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I just noticed that Worldometer finally added another column for population, which means I don’t have to constantly search for numbers if I’m trying to make (obsessive) comparisons!

It’s remarkable how consistent things are in Russia. Every day they report slightly more than 10,000 new cases and about 100 deaths. I see they mixed things up a bit yesterday and today, reporting 93 deaths yesterday and 113 today.

I've been watching the Russian numbers and noticed the same thing. I'm wondering if they're maxing out their testing capabilities every day because they report nearly the same numbers every day like clockwork.

Their deaths are definitely an undercount because they only report COVID-19 deaths after an autopsy has been conducted and all other possible causes have been ruled out.

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3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Interesting article on prolonged cases of COVID-19, particularly people who have had recurring symptoms for more than 60 days without abatement.

I read a very similar story in the Washington Post last weekend about a nurse in western N.Y. who has been dealing with a case that has gone on for 8 weeks, including putting her on life support, her fever finally breaking long enough to go home and then being back in the hospital a day or two later because it came roaring back.

I’ll try to remember to post it when I get home, it was pretty heartbreaking. Makes me all the more nervous about a very slight, very occasional cough I’ve been feeling.

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