My theory for (f)Aegon VI

[Tywin's Wallet]

On 5/8/2020 at 5:19 AM, Mithras said:

He does not have to take King's Landing in order to have an impact.

Arianne does not have a history with Cersei. It does not make sense for her to be Cersei's archenemy.

Cersei would rather commit suicide and burn the city than fleeing, as she made it clear even in ACoK where she was relatively more sane.

You mean the book which ended with Varys declaring his intent to restore Cersei?

Cersei has the gold of the Casterly Rock. She has the gold cloaks.

fAegon will conquer Westeros piece by piece, by trying to draw the Lannister/Tyrell armies to the field rather than trying to besiege them in fortified cities. Right now, fAegon does not have enough power to take King's Landing. He does not have a navy. He already has some losses. He does not have the treasury to cover the expenses of a large city like King's Landing and he already has lots of hungry knights and lots waiting for their prizes.

fAegon will have his glory moment in Oldtown when he arrives just in time to save the city from ironborn. Cersei will stay in King's Landing until she burns the city at the end.

Thank you! and also, sometimes people forget the current situation he's stepping into if he takes the throne:

1) Euron-  he fights with magic, something team fAegon isn't prepared for. He is also brutal and not exactly someone you can have a" parlay" with. Who knows he'll probably find out Illyrio's , Varys plans through a glass candle or would try to manipulate fAegon through dreams giving him advantage. And like you said he doesn't have a navy, unless Aurane Waters happens to side with him and brings ships or the Redwines are willing to take up the burden - but they have to defend their lands since Euron is advancing and fAegon has nothing to offer them really, they are stretched thin. 

2) Team fAegon is holding on the dream that he'll easily get the Dragons. JC was already freaking out that Daenerys is behind their schedule and pointed out that without guaranteeing that his team has the upper hand he has nothing to offer in return for allegiances. Certainly you can rally around a marriage - but marrying fAegon to another house sounds like too much risk of losing the dragons so he's obviously not all too open to the idea unless he offers his own hand in marriage, but he's got gray scale so, can he?

3)  Faith militant -  A popular opinion is that he'll walk in to KL and kills Cersei. Unless the HS is in Illyrio's payroll, they are  still a problem in KL, even if Cersei blows them up. The faith is popular with the people and anyone seeking support will have to hear the people on this. They're not just going to suffer have the last shred of protection they had just to let another incestuous arrangement take place. With that, I think he can strike a deal with the faith if he agrees to forbid incest, but since his cousin Arianne is looking to marry him House Martell would get slighted,  and again he won't be able to get Daenerys to marry him. So that's another wrench, probably it's more a trade off, but I don't know how secure he'll feel w/o dragons tbh. He's still facing Euron and the north rebellions.

4) Little Finger: I don't mistrust that he will take advantage and start spreading rumors, starting with Stannis up north just to intensify his rebellion (if he wins WF) or through the Tyrells (with whom he's teamed up before). Varys might fight his intel attacks to the death, but once little finger catches on to some juicy piece of info, there's no stopping that guy. I don't believe he'll just accept this Aegon without finding out wassup, if he hasn't already found out that is.  Varys can't do everything by himself either with JC going mad and everyone in the team not being well familiar with current Westeros. If Tyrion could smell something was off fairly easy, I don't doubt LF could throw a wrench in their plans. 

6) I think when Daenerys comes , lords are gonna feel nervous. If rumors are running rampant that fAegon isn't true and, if  the true Targaryen with a massive army and dragons convinces even just a couple lords that Aegon is fake, say hello to a whole lot of lords reconsidering their allegiances and terrified they made the wrong choice. And also remember that Vary's isn't that well liked or trusted. I think people may start noticing when the Mad King's daughter doesn't want to marry him easy or cave to his feet. You don't think the like of Olenna Tyrell may not ask why is it that her nephew was kept a secret from Daenerys when they get to know about her story? People seem to assume that no one would care if fAegon is fake, but the reality is that lords that supported Blackfyres lost everything, they were stripped of their lands titles, many where exiled. It's no joke if fAegon's plot falls through, which is probably why the insistence on marrying Danny- to trap her into a situation she cant escape. If people start doubting  fAegon will have to face the dragon, possibly alone or with a couple houses only, no one's gonna want to risk their lands and titles for the wrong person - sorry that's just Westeros. 

I don't why people seem to think this will be easy for fAegon, as if problems go away with a new king, lol . fAegon stepped in a pressure cooker they weren't counting on. 

 

[FictionIsntReal]

5 hours ago, Tywin's Wallet said:

The faith is popular with the people and anyone seeking support will have to hear the people on this. They're not just going to suffer have the last shred of protection they had just to let another incestuous arrangement take place. With that, I think he can strike a deal with the faith if he agrees to forbid incest, but since his cousin Arianne is looking to marry him House Martell would get slighted,  and again he won't be able to get Daenerys to marry him.

 

The Faith permit cousin-marriage, even for non-Targaryens.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

On 9/3/2020 at 9:12 PM, butterweedstrover said:

Rhaegar is the only person (besides her children) who Cersei has identified as beautiful.

This is not true. Setting aside her children, Cersei has also referred to Taena Merryweather, Margaery, and Jaime as beautiful. Not to mention Maggy is the one using the word beautiful in that scene, not Cersei. 

[butterweedstrover]

27 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

This is not true. Setting aside her children, Cersei has also referred to Taena Merryweather, Margaery, and Jaime as beautiful. Not to mention Maggy is the one using the word beautiful in that scene, not Cersei. 

Don't remember that. 

Well, Rhaegar was the most beautiful person in the world according to Cersei.

[Makk]

I have a feeling that fAegon will at least "hook up" with Elia Sand. I'm less sure about marriage, would he be that stupid? I think it's quite possible.

There is usually a purpose when GRRM introduces new characters and spends enough effort at developing them. Elia hasn't been in the story for long but some of the writing about her in the preview chapters is very interesting. These are not entirely in sequence. 

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And Elia Sand, oldest of the four girls that Prince Oberyn had fathered on Ellaria, would cross the Sea of Dorne with Arianne.  "As a lady, not a lance," her mother said firmly, but like all the Sand Snakes, Elia had her own mind.

 

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Come break of day, they were off again.  Elia Sand led the way, her black braid flying behind her as she raced across the dry, cracked plains and up into the hills.  The girl was mad for horses, which might be why she often smelled like one, to the despair of her mother.  Sometimes Arianne felt sorry for Ellaria.  Four girls, and every one of them her father’s daughter. 

First real descriptions of Elia we get, points out she is impulsive, confident, and willful to the point of being uncontrollable. 

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     The princess lapsed into silence, all the while pondering what she would find at journey’s end.  That night when they made camp, she crept into the tent she shared with Jayne Ladybright and Elia Sand and slipped the bit of parchment out of her sleeve to read the words again.

      To Prince Doran of House Martell,
      You will remember me, I pray.  I knew your sister well,
      and was a leal servant of your good-brother.  I grieve
      for them as you do.  I did not die, no more than did
      your sister’s son.  To save his life we kept him hidden,
      but the time for hiding is done.  A dragon has returned
      to Westeros to claim his birthright and seek vengeance
      for his father, and for the princess Elia, his mother.
      In her name I turn to Dorne.  Do not forsake us. 
                                   Jon Connington
                                   Lord of Griffin’s Roost
                                   Hand of the True King

This draws attention to the fact that Elia has the same name as the person young Griff thinks of as his mother

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      "We will see about that."  Valena wheeled her big red around and put her heels into him, and the race was on, through the dusty lanes of the village at the bottom of the hill, as chickens and villagers alike scrambled out of their path.  Arianne was three horse lengths behind by the time she got her mare up to a gallop, but had closed to one halfway up the slope.  The two of them were side-by-side as they thundered towards the gatehouse, but five yards from the gates Elia Sand came flying from the cloud of dust behind them to rush past both of them on her black filly.
      "Are you half horse, child?" Valena asked, laughing, in the yard.  "Princess, did you bring a stable girl?"
      "I’m Elia," the girl announced.  "Lady Lance."

Here Elia comes from behind to beat Arianne.

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 “I never knew how wild she was till now,” Arianne complained to Daemon Sand, afterward.  “Why would my father inflict her on me?”

“Vengeance?” the knight suggested, with a smile.

Not too much to this one but it does make reader question why Elia is actually there, and again makes it look like she is going to cause trouble. 

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It was. The other searchers had found Elia, as she and Daemon learned after they made their way back up the slippery slope to the last hall. Their passageway led down to a still black pool, where they discovered the girl up to her waist in water, catching blind white fish with her bare hands, her torch burning red and smoky in the sand where she had planted it.

You could have died,” Arianne told her, when she’d heard the tale. She grabbed Elia by the arm and shook her. “If that torch had gone out you would have been alone in the dark, as good as blind. What did you think that you were doing?”

“I caught two fish,” said Elia Sand.

I would love to know what this means. I'm not that great with Georges symbolism but I do feel this means something important. Is the blind white fish under the red and smokey light the not Targaryen young Griff? With Elia getting into deep water and out of her depth? When the torch (the golden companies power?) goes out she will die? 

Also she caught two fish.

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Arianne was on her way back to her own chamber when she heard muffled laughter from the adjoining room. She paused and listened for a moment, then pushed the door open to find Elia Sand curled up in a window seat, kissing Feathers. When Feathers saw the princess standing there, he jumped to his feet and began to stammer. Both of them still had their clothes on. Arianne took some small comfort in that as she sent Feathers on his way with a sharp look and a “Go”.   Then she turned to Elia.  “He is twice your age. A serving man. He cleans up birdshit for the maester. Elia, what were you thinking?”

“We were only kissing. I’m not going to marry him.”  Elia crossed her arms defiantly beneath her breasts. “You think I never kissed a boy before?”

“Feathers is a man.  A serving man, but still a man. It did not escape the princess that Elia was the same age she had been when she gave her maidenhead to Daemon Sand.

Feathers could be the first fish. It also points out to the reader that Elia is no longer a young girl but becoming a woman.

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“Half a world away on Slaver’s Bay,” said Lysono Maar. “As for these purported dragons, I have not seen them. In cyvasse, it is true, the dragon is mightier than the elephant. On the battlefield, give me elephants I can see and touch and send against my foes, not dragons made of words and wishes.”

This shows the general attitude within the Golden Company towards Daenerys and the importance of dragons.

Although Connington is wiser and absolutely knows the importance of keeping him single, young Griff is also becoming his own person and harder for Connington to control. He has been raised to believe he is the rightful king, yet been strictly muzzled by Connington his entire life. He has recently been played by Tyrion and is associating and being influenced by his subjects in the Golden company more and more, who would be quite happy if a Blackfyre won Westeros without a Targaryen. It was his decision to strike out to Westeros without Daenerys. It was his decision to lead the attack on storms end himself. Elia is young, exciting, probably attractive, and has his mothers name which could be seen as fate. Young Griff could likely consider it possible to take Elia as his first wife and Daenerys as his second as he has quite an ego.

I don't see Arianne wedding fAegon. Arianne has been built up as a major character who is going to have tough decisions to make. She has spent multiple chapters pondering on whether young Griff is really her cousin. At the very least I believe she will succeed in her task and work out he is an impostor. She will then be torn, wedding him would give many of the things she has desired throughout her life. But I think she will do what is best for Dorne (sort of) and that is wait and support Daenerys. 

fAegon and Elia will wed without Conningtons approval. Dorne will then split with the Yronwood led faction supporting "Aegon and Elia Targaryen", no doubt spurred on when they hear Quentyn was incinerated by a dragon from Archibald. The Martells will rally what support they can and wait patiently for Daenerys to arrive.

A lot of speculation there.