DMC Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 14 minutes ago, Fez said: Right now he's in good shape, and I think if the election were today (and there was normal voting access) I think he'd win AZ, WI, and FL and maybe even NC. But there's a long way until the election and plenty of time for things to go bad. I'm not sure if it's gonna be AZ or WI, but I bet one of them will be the tipping points. What's good, at least right now which could drastically change in a minute, is that it looks like the Dems are playing offense a bit here. They have the resources and the imperative to check out even GA and TX, let alone FL and NC. Whereas Trump is all playing defense. I don't think Michigan is as much of a layup as people are recently portraying it as, but Biden should do better there and PA than HIllary simply based on the composition of their constituencies. Amash doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 What polling we've seen from AZ has been excellent for Biden. I am not totally sure why, but the four polls conducted in the past two months have Biden +1, +3, +8 and +9. It is hard to believe it could flip from "never goes Democrat" to "clearly leaning Biden" in a single election, but it seems quite possible that AZ might be an easier pickup than PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maithanet said: It is hard to believe it could flip from "never goes Democrat" to "clearly leaning Biden" in a single election, but it seems quite possible that AZ might be an easier pickup than PA. Yeah it's still way too early to make that kinda jump. But Sinema's victory and Kelly's strength suggest this ain't no passing thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 1 hour ago, DMC said: I'm not sure if it's gonna be AZ or WI, but I bet one of them will be the tipping points. What's good, at least right now which could drastically change in a minute, is that it looks like the Dems are playing offense a bit here. They have the resources and the imperative to check out even GA and TX, let alone FL and NC. Whereas Trump is all playing defense. I don't think Michigan is as much of a layup as people are recently portraying it as, but Biden should do better there and PA than HIllary simply based on the composition of their constituencies. Amash doesn't matter. Michigan's not a layup, but I think it's pretty close to one. The Detroit suburbs are one of the clearest examples of the political realignment that Trump's been causing. They flipped hard in 2018, and the 2020 primary results suggest that the change in preferences is still there. I know the problems with extrapolating primary results to general election results. But seeing formerly Republican high population counties like Macomb and Oakland set new records for Democratic primary ballots, says to me that a lot of those flipped voters were participating (and, based on the results, very clearly made their preference for Biden known). 56 minutes ago, Maithanet said: What polling we've seen from AZ has been excellent for Biden. I am not totally sure why, but the four polls conducted in the past two months have Biden +1, +3, +8 and +9. It is hard to believe it could flip from "never goes Democrat" to "clearly leaning Biden" in a single election, but it seems quite possible that AZ might be an easier pickup than PA. Yeah, a lot of the state polls do line up pretty well with the national polling and the shift from Clinton's +2 margin to Biden's current +6 margin, but Arizona is the big exception. The polling has the state clearly to the left of any uniform shift; and it's Biden and Kelly both that are benefiting. I've heard anecdotally for a while now that Arizona had become the destination for younger folks moving West who couldn't afford California. I wonder if there's finally been enough of that now for Arizona to reach the same tipping point that Virginia hit around 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 26 minutes ago, Fez said: Michigan's not a layup, but I think it's pretty close to one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.