Tywin Manderly Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Please continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Reading your last update @Fragile Bird, I'd probably have preferred to see the provinces (esp. the large ones) wait a little longer before raising people's hopes and relaxing some restrictions. Ford's tone has become noticeably optimistic in recent days. This does feel like the peak of the (likely first) wave (Canada went past 200 deaths / day for the first time this week)...but I do worry that QC and ON are getting a little twitchy on the trigger. Let's actually see the predicted decrease (not just stabilization) in the data before we act. I wonder whether the large recovery numbers Canada is now reporting might be making the provinces feel more comfortable, because it means that the number of active cases is now almost flat-lining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 My lord, just when you think things are getting better Quebec does it again. 2,209 cases added in Quebec, 892 new cases and 1,317 missing confirmed cases due to a ‘computer error’. And 69 new deaths. Nobody does incompetence like Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: My lord, just when you think things are getting better Quebec does it again. 2,209 cases added in Quebec, 892 new cases and 1,317 missing confirmed cases due to a ‘computer error’. And 69 new deaths. Nobody does incompetence like Quebec. Even without the error, they’ve recorded over 1,000 new cases / day in recent days. It’s an interesting time to be relaxing restrictions...let’s hope for the best. I definitely would’ve liked to see the number of active cases in Quebec falling before they proceed with any substantial re-opening. We are starting to see some local businesses close permanently in downtown TO. Sad. It looks as if Morneau dropped the ball on commercial rental assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord of Oop North Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 On 5/3/2020 at 8:02 PM, Paxter said: We are starting to see some local businesses close permanently in downtown TO. Sad. It looks as if Morneau dropped the ball on commercial rental assistance. Same in my local - starting to see a few places getting emptied out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 10 hours ago, Lord of Oop North said: Same in my local - starting to see a few places getting emptied out. It's sad hey. It would be interesting to know how many are closing down by choice (due to zero revenues) versus being evicted for not paying rent. I don't know that commercial landlords really have much to gain from eviction at this point. Who wants to start or expand a business in this environment? Perhaps it is skewed to situations where the landlord-tenant relationship was already strained. Restaurants are going to be pretty hard hit even when restrictions are lifted. I am a pretty avid restaurant-goer usually, but with the financial situation, potential health risks and being accustomed now to cook at home...I don't think my habits of eating out are going to return quickly. I am kinda keen to go out dancing though haha. But it will be a while before clubs re-open. ETA: Nice to see you LooN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 On 5/2/2020 at 6:26 AM, Tywin Manderly said: Please continue. You closed the last thread with the comment that a Covid-19 outbreak in Nunavut would be terrible, since there isn't a large hospital infrastructure. Just so that you know, the case was a false positive. There are still no cases in Nunavut. The Yukon, NWT and Nunavut have closed their borders. If you are a returning resident, say someone who had a job out of province that has disappeared because of the virus and you want to come home, you must file a 14-day quarantine plan with the appropriate Health Ministry and you cannot come back until your plan has been approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 This was the last Update from the previous thread, for reference purposes, which I will bring up to date. Apr. 28 29 30 1 cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths BC 55 2 34 4 25 2 33 1 Albt 154 5 315 7 190 3 218 3 Sask 1 0 17 1 6 0 26 0 Man 0 0 1 0 2 0 4 0 ON 525 59 347 45 459 86 421 39 Que 775 83 837 79 944 98 1,110 163 NB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NS 15 3 20 1 12 0 12 1 PEI 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nfld 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Nunavut 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Totals 1526 152 1571 137 1639 189 1825 207 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 M 2 3 4 5 6 cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths BC 26 2 - - 53 3 8 4 Albt 97 2 96 1 70 9 57 2 Sask 6 0 12 0 34 0 20 0 25 Man 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 ON 511 55 434 40 370 84 387 61 412 68 Que 1008 114 2209 69 758 75 794 118 910 112 NB 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 NS 4 2 8 6 14 1 6 3 7 0 PEI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nfld 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Totals 1653 175 2760 116 1299 172 1274 189 I think I am getting more cheerful now. Our doubling period is 20 days, up from 16 when the Federal government gave their model update. NB had no new cases for 12 days and all current cases had recovered, and then they found 1 case. I think all the cases in the north have recovered as well. All the recent bump-ups in various provinces seem to have been around meat packing plants. We are definitely seeing improving trends. I think the CTV site is the best one to see the trends. Look at every province, but don't look at the 7-day average, look at the daily new cases. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-covid-19-in-canada-1.4852102 eta: watching the Saskatchewan press conference. The outbreak in Saskatchewan is in the far north, La Loche. 24 out of 25 cases reported today are there, as well as the most of the rest of the new cases this past week, a hotspot in other words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Some more "glass-half-full" comments to echo @Fragile Bird above: Alberta has gone four days in a row of reporting less than 100 new cases per day. Ontario was at 500-600 cases per day two weeks ago, 400-500 last week and 400 this week. Let's go for under 300 next week! BC hasn't had more than 40 cases per day this month. But: No real sign of a slowdown in QC - just plateauing. Saskatchewan is having its worst stretch of the pandemic so far, with three days in a row of over 20 new cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Update May 6 7 8 9 10 cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths cases deaths BC 23 3 33 2 29 1 15 2 - - Albt 70 6 54 2 81 1 59 1 96 1 Sask 25 0 19 0 13 0 9 0 11 0 Man 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 ON 412 68 400 48 477 33 346 59 294 35 Que 910 112 911 121 912 94 836 61 735 142 NB 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NS 7 0 9 3 1 2 3 1 7 0 PEI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nfld 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Totals 1442 189 1428 176 1513 131 1268 124 1146 178 Ontario had the lowest number of new cases since March, with twice the number being tested. Three provinces continue their run of 0 cases. Quebec had a large number of deaths because deaths lag by at least two weeks, but new cases dropped. I will bet that next week we'll see cross Canada numbers go below 1,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Ontario starting to kick some ass. Active cases are now at 3,746, down from the mid-5000s at the end of April. With luck, we will be at or below 1,000 cases by June. Quebec. Nearly 26,000 cases and rising. One province is accounting for over 80% of Canada's active cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 There are some Ontario numbers that really took me by surprise. Only 78 deaths out of 1,669 confirmed deaths were people younger than 60. 1,174 were over 80. 1,398 deaths were in LTC or retirement homes. That’s 83%. 308 new cases today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Update May 7 8 9 10 11 cases cases cases cases cases cases BC 33 29 15 - 23 Albt 54 81 59 96 49 Sask 19 13 9 11 4 Man 0 1 0 3 2 ON 400 477 346 294 308 Que 911 912 836 735 748 NB 0 0 0 0 0 NS 9 1 3 7 1 PEI 0 0 0 0 0 Nfld 2 0 0 0 0 Totals 1428 1513 1268 1146 1133 Things look pretty good. As I said yesterday, I think the daily numbers will drop below 1000 soon. Let's hope Quebec finally has a handle on stuff. Well, as long as more meat packing plants don't have outbreaks again. That Cargill plant's outbreak in Alberta was the worst in North America. I have eliminated the death totals for now. Quebec will continue to have high numbers until they get over that big hump in cases. On the bright side, half of all cases are resolved. Most of the active cases are in Quebec, of course, a staggering 25,753 out of Canada's 31,994. Ontario, in comparison has 3,746 active cases out of a total of 20,546 confirmed cases. Of course we all know that there are more cases out there, but the idea that Quebec has almost as many deceased, 3,013, as Ontario has active cases, is pretty scary. It really makes me think that Quebec has a more virulent version of the virus in it's territory, and I suspect it came from New York, since there is a huge amount of north-south travel across the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 16 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: It really makes me think that Quebec has a more virulent version of the virus in it's territory, and I suspect it came from New York, since there is a huge amount of north-south travel across the border. I've wondered this too. At the end of the day I just can't get my head around the differing public health outcomes across geographic locations. QC and ON just seem too similar in too many ways for the QC experience to have been this idiosyncratic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Another good week for Canada. We should go below 1,000 new cases / day next week for the first time since March! Lockdown easing is starting to ramp up though...which of course carries risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Update May 10 11 12 13 14 cases cases cases cases cases BC - 23 7 16 15 Albt 96 49 46 62 50 Sask 11 4 5 4 5 Man 3 2 1 0 0 ON 294 308 361 329 345 Que 735 748 756 706 793 NB 0 0 0 0 0 NS 7 1 1 4 2 PEI 0 0 0 0 0 Nfld 0 0 0 0 0 Totals 1146 1133 1176 1121 1210 I haven't listened to the press conferences today, but heard details about Ontario starting to reopen. I'm rather nervous about that being done without easily accessible testing centers for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 I have three close med school friends ( two in Sask & one in Toronto) who are now all doctors working in Canada so I've *sorta* been keeping up with the pandemic over there - like y'all, I was curious about Quebec and came across this Guardian article which was interesting ( defo don't know enough about the Canadian health system or Quebec to know how on or off the mark the article is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 3 hours ago, Raja said: I have three close med school friends ( two in Sask & one in Toronto) who are now all doctors working in Canada so I've *sorta* been keeping up with the pandemic over there - like y'all, I was curious about Quebec and came across this Guardian article which was interesting ( defo don't know enough about the Canadian health system or Quebec to know how on or off the mark the article is) The really sad fact is that Canada has utterly failed the elderly. A little over 80% of the deaths in Canada have been in LTC homes, and it doesn't matter if it's Quebec or Nova Scotia or wherever. Nova Scotia has had 51 deaths, 44 or more have been in a single nursing home. 1308 of Ontario's 1,798 deaths have happened in nursing homes. Imagine, only 409 deaths in the province otherwise, in a population of 14.6 M. There have been 5,468 deaths in Canada, 3,351 in Quebec. 80% is 2,680. It's mainly illegal to collect statistics on the basis of ethnicity, or colour, but I certainly expect researchers will dive into breaking down the numbers once this is over. I have read that jobs in the health care industry have been a magnet for refugees in Quebec, with 1,500 working in the industry in Quebec. I took a look at the Quebec website, and they don'y say how many healthcare workers have died in the province, but in Ontario only 5 have died. The first nurse to die in all of Canada died yesterday, in Ontario. She was white. I don't doubt a lot of healthcare workers have gotten sick, but I don't know that the majority of the deaths have been among refugees and the poor. We just don't have that information. But, only 2% of deaths (66) have been younger than 60, and I think the vast majority of refugees are younger people, not seniors. 6.5% are between 60 and 69, so about 217 people. (In Quebec) Of course, we also know that it's people regularly exposed to other people who get sick and die, in other words, service workers, and they are the working class. They don't get to stay at home. 6 airport limousine drivers in Toronto have died of Covid-19, with 4 more suspected to have died of the virus. A lot of those drivers are Asian, mainly Indian and Pakistani. Here are today's Canadian numbers, fyi. https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/surv-covid19-epi-update-eng.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eponine Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 On 5/6/2020 at 9:59 AM, Fragile Bird said: The Yukon, NWT and Nunavut have closed their borders. If you are a returning resident, say someone who had a job out of province that has disappeared because of the virus and you want to come home, you must file a 14-day quarantine plan with the appropriate Health Ministry and you cannot come back until your plan has been approved. As of mid-March, I was planning a work trip up North of Yellowknife for mid-April. At that time, the site was still allowing visitors if their work was deemed essential enough and they are still having rotating flights of employees. I was relieved to have the trip cancelled even before full quarantine orders were enacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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