Canadian Politics: The Surreality of Life under King Corona

[kairparavel]

My nieces and nephew are back to school in person and I'm super nervous. They live rural town just outside of Ottawa but it's not like it's closed off to the world. Because of staggered returns my niece in high school started last Friday, my nephew starts grade 6 Thursday and my other niece grade 7 Friday. They aren't taking the bus. Parents will drive the two younger ones and the high-schooler walks. It just seems insane to me. But it's not like I have any answers. 

[Paxter]

On 9/15/2020 at 5:14 PM, Fragile Bird said:

You got tested at Pearson? Fantastic! Lots of us were calling for airport testing. That should help. Did you go home for a vacation?

It was part of a study paid for by Air Canada. But it wasn't the most reliable testing procedure...just a self-test mouth and nose swab.

I wish I had been able to go home! The Australian border is pretty much closed shut unless you are willing to pay for hotel quarantine. I was in Greece and Germany visiting friends/family. 

Hope all goes well @kairparavel. My understanding is that regional/rural Ontario is in pretty good shape. 

[Fragile Bird]

Oh right, I heard about the Air Canada study. It’s not permanent. However, if the study shows lots of cases coming in perhaps it will become permanent.

[Paxter]

It's May all over again in Quebec and Ontario.

For ON, I don't really understand why Stage 3 was a no-no back then, but fine now. Have we got to the point now where cases data is irrelevant and the politicians are just watching the hospital system?

Day 8 of quarantine for me...

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

It's May all over again in Quebec and Ontario.

For ON, I don't really understand why Stage 3 was a no-no back then, but fine now. Have we got to the point now where cases data is irrelevant and the politicians are just watching the hospital system?

Day 8 of quarantine for me...

Testing. Back in May we were doing what? 10 or 12 thousand tests a day? We’ve been doing 30,000 to 35,000 tests a day for a couple of months now, and with new test centers being opened we did more than 40,000 tests yesterday. If we did 40,000 tests in Ontario at the end of May I bet we would have had 1,500 cases, or more, in Canada.

May 1 numbers: 1825 cases and 207 deaths. May 31 numbers, 757 new cases and I stopped tracking deaths. [eta 421 and 326 cases in Ontario, just to be clear] Checking Worldometer, I see we had 94 deaths on the 30th and 222 on the 31st, because Quebec sifted through all death records and did a clean-up dump of statistics. June 1 we had 31 deaths, June 2 and 3 were more clean-up days with 69 and 103 reported, and another anomalous day on June 20 with 64. Those three days, iirc, were all Quebec reporting and saying the deaths occurred over days, not the previous day. June 29 saw 44 deaths and then a massive drop until now. I think in the last 2 months we’ve had 2 days with 10 deaths.

That said, don’t be surprised if we go back to Phase 2. Things are already being rolled back. I actually went to mass yesterday for the first time since February or March, because I thought I’d like to go at least once before the hammer comes down again.

And yesterday I celebrated my birthday with friends who are part of my bubble. We had cake and coffee. They had had a family dinner the night before, in their backyard with 3 heaters going full blast. Their son and daughter-in-law were in town from Montreal for one day, and their daughter and their other son and his wife were there as well, plus the 96-year old grandmother. Both the Montrealers had Covid-19, he recovered nicely, a relief since he has no spleen, removed after a bad bicycling accident, but the wife now seems to be a long-hauler. She still has pains. A couple of hours later I dropped by their house again to return something, and my friend told me her Toronto son just texted her to say a co-worker has reported being sick and is going for testing. This is how it spreads. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[Fragile Bird]

I meant to update to Friday over the weekend, so I'll get that done now. Tomorrow I'll add the weekend with the numbers split up from BC and Alberta, since they are providing the weekend breakdown. Worldometer will show a huge number for today since they won't go back and change the weekend numbers.

Update

Sept           13      14      15      16      17      18                  

BC            119      61      97    122    165    179         

AB            173    140    124    171    146    107

SK              17        8      10      10        7     19   

MB             18      21      17      23      11     40

ON           214    313    251    315    293    401  

PQ            279    276    292    303    499    297  

M-4              0        1        2                            1      

Total          810    820    793    944  1121  1044

So. We look like we are in the 2nd wave. Hang on to your hats, folks!

[Paxter]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Testing. Back in May we were doing what? 10 or 12 thousand tests a day? We’ve been doing 30,000 to 35,000 tests a day for a couple of months now, and with new test centers being opened we did more than 40,000 tests yesterday. If we did 40,000 tests in Ontario at the end of May I bet we would have had 1,500 cases, or more, in Canada.

Fair enough. I guess if testing is about 3-4 times more expansive, then it could be that Ford is willing to go over 1,000 cases per day (or more) before pulling the trigger on Stage 2 restrictions. 

I don't really like the "wave" terminology. But yeah, this is the next phase for sure. 

ETA: Out of interest, what kind of symptoms is your friend still experiencing? I had the impression that ongoing symptoms were likelier in more severe cases, but that doesn't seem to be the case. 

[Fragile Bird]

24 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Fair enough. I guess if testing is about 3-4 times more expansive, then it could be that Ford is willing to go over 1,000 cases per day (or more) before pulling the trigger on Stage 2 restrictions. 

I don't really like the "wave" terminology. But yeah, this is the next phase for sure. 

ETA: Out of interest, what kind of symptoms is your friend still experiencing? I had the impression that ongoing symptoms were likelier in more severe cases, but that doesn't seem to be the case. 

I did not see her, but my friend, her mother-in-law, says she is having some respiratory issues, with breathing being more difficult at times, and fatigue. I know that a racing heart and memory issues have been mentioned by other long-haulers, but she didn't mention those. I know that Chris Cuomo at CNN has mentioned the fatigue and memory issues. (He appears to be a long-hauler too.)

[Fragile Bird]

Horgan has called a snap election in BC for Oct. 24. I bet he’s looking at the Covid-19 numbers and wants to go for a majority before numbers get worse. New Brunswick set the example.

[kairparavel]

My mother and my sisters have come to agree that there won't be a family gathering for Thanksgiving, even outside at the cottage. Pretty glad for that. It would have been 8 people total, but 3 of whom are now in school and taking part in sports, 1 who has autoimmune disorders and 2 who are in their mid to late 70's. While I'm worried about the rising cases I'm more worried about my youngest sister who lives in Gatineau, just across the river from Ottawa. Or rather, I'm worried if for some reason interprovincial travel is shut down again like it was in late March. Mostly I'm just worried overall. And renewing my Canadian passport. 

 

[Fragile Bird]

Update

Sept           16      17      18      19      20      21      22                  

BC            122    165    179    121    117    128      93        

AB            171    146    107    119    102    137    150

SK              10        7      19      11      20        7      10   

MB             23      11      40      18      29      22      24

ON           315    293    401    407    365    425    478    

PQ            303    499    297    427    462    586    489  

M-4                                  1                            2        1

North                                         2                   1

Total          944  1121  1044  1103  1095  1305  1245

The numbers speak for themselves, don't they? I keep hoping the big numbers in Ontario reflect the Labour Day weekend and will drop off, but we have university students as an offset. On the bright side of things, today's number is 'only' 335. Quebec has brought in more restrictions and the police are now actively going out to public gathering places like bars and restaurants. On a sad note, Nunavut finally has cases, all three along the North line are there, all in one mine in Baffin Island. I gather all the miners flew in from their R&R break.

Dr. Tam has warned we are on a trajectory to hit 5,000 cases a day if we don't get this under control. Considering we never had a day over 2,000 (except that day Quebec did a clean-up of cases) that's scary, although back during the previous height we were doing so little testing we probably had 5,000 cases a day at some point, we just didn't know it.

More alarming to me is the idea that after the Spanish flu there was a big increase in Parkinson cases and some doctors are warning it's likely the same will happen after this pandemic.

Just a short while ago I was pleased to report we only had 49 people in hospital in Ontario, I noticed yesterday it was up to 90 already. And worse, there are now 51 cases in LTC homes.

eta: I forgot to mention, there has been an outbreak in a Calgary hospital, with 22 cases so far and 3 dead, and an outbreak in a LTC home in BC which has also resulted in deaths, I believe.

[Fragile Bird]

Ontario is ramping up testing again: up to 60 pharmacies will start doing testing on Friday. Ford is doing a press conference from Huntsville, which does not have a testing center. (Huntsville is about a 2 and a half hour drive north of Toronto).

According to Ford, Ontario has done more testing than the rest of Canada combined.

[kairparavel]

The CBC posted some serious data analysis. There is one statistic that really stands out to me, and that's death by age group for women age 80+.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/public-health-agency-of-canada-covid-19-statistics-1.5733069

[Lord of Oop North]

9 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Ontario is ramping up testing again: up to 60 pharmacies will start doing testing on Friday. Ford is doing a press conference from Huntsville, which does not have a testing center. (Huntsville is about a 2 and a half hour drive north of Toronto).

According to Ford, Ontario has done more testing than the rest of Canada combined.

meanwhile, I made an appointment request Monday for my little girl,and they just confirmed for next Monday afternoon. By the time we get results, it will be almost the full isolation period and she can go back to school anyway.

It is an absolute disgrace that this government was not better prepared. Fuck Ford and his comments about doing better.

[Fragile Bird]

9 hours ago, Lord of Oop North said:

meanwhile, I made an appointment request Monday for my little girl,and they just confirmed for next Monday afternoon. By the time we get results, it will be almost the full isolation period and she can go back to school anyway.

It is an absolute disgrace that this government was not better prepared. Fuck Ford and his comments about doing better.

For crying out loud. I have seen parents interviewed on tv saying the exact damn thing.

I know that Health Canada has been very careful about tests they approve but you’d think they’d have approved an instant test by now.

I hope she is not sick and her test is negative. Best wishes for that, m’dear! <3

And that you and Mrs Lord are fine!

[Fragile Bird]

Update

Sept           19      20      21      22       23      24     25                  

BC            121    117    128      93       91    148     98        

AB            119    102    137    150    143    158    153

SK              11      20        7      10        6        5      11  

MB             18      29      22      24       42     37      54

ON           407    365    425    478     335    409   409   

PQ            427    462    586    489     471    582   637  

M-4                                  2        1         2        2      1

North            2                   1

Total         1103  1095  1305  1245  1090  1341 1363

The numbers continue to climb. Quebec has almost 900 cases today, Ontario almost 500. Nunavut has declared it's official record to be back to 0, since all three miners got infected elsewhere, their cases having been transferred to their home provinces.

While the deaths per day remain below 10, more infections are being reported in TC homes, so that's bound to rise. 

eta: I thought I heard something about Florida, and I had to double-check what I heard. We are scaling back stuff in Ontario with our numbers. Florida has 21 M people, and reported alomost 2,800 cases and 106 deaths yesterday, and they just announced all businesses can be open 100% and cancelled the authority of any community that had imposed fines for not wearing a mask.  Please, Ottawa, keep our borders closed!

[Paxter]

On 9/23/2020 at 10:58 PM, Lord of Oop North said:

meanwhile, I made an appointment request Monday for my little girl,and they just confirmed for next Monday afternoon. By the time we get results, it will be almost the full isolation period and she can go back to school anyway.

It is an absolute disgrace that this government was not better prepared. Fuck Ford and his comments about doing better.

Yeah I'm with you. We've had months to prepare for the inevitable Fall surge in symptoms and cases. Testing needs to be absolutely ubiquitous by now. 

On the US border, I don't think there is much to worry about there, at least for 2020 and the first half of 2021. The polling numbers are absolutely overwhelming to maintain the status quo and the Libs are surely not so foolish as to ignore them. 

[kairparavel]

My sister messaged me to tell me Quebec is closing restaurants, bars, and movie theaters for 28 days. In red zones, so Montreal and Quebec City. Gatineau, where she lives, is Orange. But Ottawa is right there so curious what will happen there. 

[Paxter]

11 minutes ago, kairparavel said:

Quebec closing restaurants, bars, and movie theaters for 28 days. In red zones. So Montreal and Quebec City. Gatineau, where she lives, is Orange. But Ottawa is right there so curious what will happen there. 

Interesting.

Will Ford follow suit? I know Quebec's cases skyrocketed, but I doubt Ontario's major centres are much better than Quebec's this time around...

[Fragile Bird]

Some medical association, I forget which one, has asked Ford to return the GTA and Ottawa to Phase 2. So far Ford’s response has been he’s listening to his public health officials and will take their advice.