Who is the Grey girl in Melisandre's fires?

[redwolf@winterhell]

At Castle Black, Melisandre looks in her fires and sees a girl on a dying horse supposedly coming North. Melisandre thinks that this is "Arya" , who has escaped the Boltons. But obviously it is not Arya Stark and I do not think that Jeyne Poole will come North, because she doesn't have any family up there. So, if it is not Arya and not Jeyne Poole then who is it?

[rotting sea cow]

16 minutes ago, redwolf@winterhell said:

At Castle Black, Melisandre looks in her fires and sees a girl on a dying horse supposedly coming North. Melisandre thinks that this is "Arya" , who has escaped the Boltons. But obviously it is not Arya Stark and I do not think that Jeyne Poole will come North, because she doesn't have any family up there. So, if it is not Arya and not Jeyne Poole then who is it?

Alys Karstark

[Moiraine Sedai]

Yes.  M was confused.  

6 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Alys Karstark

 

[Vaith]

Some will say it hasn't been solved, but I personally do think it was Alys.

The plan is for Jeyne to go north as of the TWOW sample chapters, but Alys fits the bill better.

[kissdbyfire]

Mel is up to her usual deceptions, half-truths, and guessing an answer that is what suits her best. She saw the girl in grey on a dying horse, she wants to win Jon over, she wants Jon to trust her. So she assumes it’s Jon’s sister. B/c then, if she helps rescue his sister, she will have proven herself to Jon. 

ADwD, Melisandre

“Melisandre nodded solemnly, as if she had taken his words to heart, but this Weeper did not matter. None of his free folk mattered. They were a lost people, a doomed people, destined to vanish from the earth, as the children of the forest had vanished. Those were not words he would wish to hear, though, and she could not risk losing him, not now. “How well do you know the north?”
He slipped his blade away. “As well as any raider. Some parts more than others. There’s a lot of north. Why?”
“The girl,” she said. “A girl in grey on a dying horse. Jon Snow’s sister.” Who else could it be? She was racing to him for protection, that much Melisandre had seen clearly. “I have seen her in my flames, but only once. We must win the lord commander’s trust, and the only way to do that is to save her.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I'm satisfied with the grey girl being Alys, but I think Jeyne might fit the bill a lot more.

The geography coming from Karhold doesn't correspond to what Melisandre described to Mance. Karhold is nowhere near Long Lake, but where Jeyne Poole would be coming up from the crofter's village, she would have to come near it to reach Castle Black.

I think Mel is more right about this one than she is wrong. But again, I have no problem with the whole issue being resolved and Alys being the grey girl. 

[zandru]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Mel is up to her usual deceptions, half-truths, and guessing an answer that is what suits her best.

Exactly! The flames may not lie, but Melisandre is still doing the interpretation. Her chapter was definitely an eye-opener as to her abilities, biases, deceptions, and ignorance. I hope we'll see more chapters from her point of view!

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, zandru said:

Exactly! The flames may not lie, but Melisandre is still doing the interpretation. Her chapter was definitely an eye-opener as to her abilities, biases, deceptions, and ignorance. I hope we'll see more chapters from her point of view!

Definitely, a major eye opener! Things one might have suspected before were revealed to be true. Her powders, her guessing games and manipulation, and so on. I hope we get more of her PoVs as well. 

[Wall Flower]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Mel is up to her usual deceptions, half-truths, and guessing an answer that is what suits her best. She saw the girl in grey on a dying horse, she wants to win Jon over, she wants Jon to trust her. So she assumes it’s Jon’s sister. B/c then, if she helps rescue his sister, she will have proven herself to Jon. 

ADwD, Melisandre

“Melisandre nodded solemnly, as if she had taken his words to heart, but this Weeper did not matter. None of his free folk mattered. They were a lost people, a doomed people, destined to vanish from the earth, as the children of the forest had vanished. Those were not words he would wish to hear, though, and she could not risk losing him, not now. “How well do you know the north?”
He slipped his blade away. “As well as any raider. Some parts more than others. There’s a lot of north. Why?”
“The girl,” she said. “A girl in grey on a dying horse. Jon Snow’s sister.” Who else could it be? She was racing to him for protection, that much Melisandre had seen clearly. “I have seen her in my flames, but only once. We must win the lord commander’s trust, and the only way to do that is to save her.

My crackpot theory is that the girl in grey is Lyanna Stark. Mel thinks it's Jon's sister because there is a resemblance. She thinks she is seeing the future but it's really the past - another clue she's completely missing about Jon. Of course, I realise that this is just complete speculation on my part so I'm prepared to be proved spectacularly wrong.

[chrisdaw]

It is Arya and will happen towards the end.

[Tai Pan]

Jon based his decision on this bit of information.  Which is an example of prophecy leading people astray.  Jon betrayed the NW to save this girl who he believed was Arya Stark. 

[rotting sea cow]

9 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I'm satisfied with the grey girl being Alys, but I think Jeyne might fit the bill a lot more.

The geography coming from Karhold doesn't correspond to what Melisandre described to Mance. Karhold is nowhere near Long Lake

People have pointed out this before. It might be something. It might be another GRRM's mistake. It might just be that Alys tried to evade her hunters and went another way.

9 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

, but where Jeyne Poole would be coming up from the crofter's village, she would have to come near it to reach Castle Black.

She is coming with Justin Masey (who has another role to play), Alysane Mormont, the black brothers and a number of Stannis knights and soldiers.

 

[kissdbyfire]

11 hours ago, Wall Flower said:

My crackpot theory is that the girl in grey is Lyanna Stark. Mel thinks it's Jon's sister because there is a resemblance. She thinks she is seeing the future but it's really the past - another clue she's completely missing about Jon. Of course, I realise that this is just complete speculation on my part so I'm prepared to be proved spectacularly wrong.

Yeah, I've seen this idea before, it pops up now and again. And usually the idea is that the lake Mel sees is the God’s Eye. Jeyne, Arya, and Sansa are the other options people propose. I am quite satisfied w/ the girl being Alys. That said, of all the other options, I like Lyanna the best. Because it would then be a vision of the past, like a n infodump for Mel, and that works for me. The others, though... not so much. B/c they’d happen in the current timeline, meaning we would have two very similar scenarios playing out: two girls, dressed in grey, riding dying horses and seeking Jon’s protection. I find that a bit much tbh.

[rotting sea cow]

Yeah, as crackpot theories go, this one is particularly elegant.

[a black swan]

12 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Mel is up to her usual deceptions, half-truths, and guessing an answer that is what suits her best. She saw the girl in grey on a dying horse, she wants to win Jon over, she wants Jon to trust her. So she assumes it’s Jon’s sister. B/c then, if she helps rescue his sister, she will have proven herself to Jon. 

ADwD, Melisandre

“Melisandre nodded solemnly, as if she had taken his words to heart, but this Weeper did not matter. None of his free folk mattered. They were a lost people, a doomed people, destined to vanish from the earth, as the children of the forest had vanished. Those were not words he would wish to hear, though, and she could not risk losing him, not now. “How well do you know the north?”
He slipped his blade away. “As well as any raider. Some parts more than others. There’s a lot of north. Why?”
“The girl,” she said. “A girl in grey on a dying horse. Jon Snow’s sister.” Who else could it be? She was racing to him for protection, that much Melisandre had seen clearly. “I have seen her in my flames, but only once. We must win the lord commander’s trust, and the only way to do that is to save her.

Exactly. Knowing Mel, readers should be wary.

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"The girl. I must find the girl again, the grey girl on the dying horse. Jon Snow would expect that of her, and soon. It would not be enough to say the girl was fleeing. He would want more, he would want the when and where, and she did not have that for him. She had seen the girl only once. A girl as grey as ash, and even as I watched she crumbled and blew away." - Mel, ADWD 

From what Mel sees:

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“I saw water. Deep and blue and still, with a thin coat of ice just forming on it. It seemed to go on and on forever.”
“Long Lake. What else did you see around this girl?” ...
“Hills. Fields. Trees. A deer, once. Stones. She is staying well away from villages. When she can she rides along the bed of little streams, to throw hunters off her trail.” - Mel, ADWD 

Asha sees in ADWD, near Crofters' village south of where this grey girl is supposed to be if you believe she is heading North:

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"Her irons clanked as she climbed to her feet and took a breath of the icy morning air. The snow was still falling, even more heavily than when she'd crawled inside the tent. The lakes had vanished, and the woods as well. She could see the shapes of other tents and lean-tos and the fuzzy orange glow of the beacon fire burning atop the watchtower, but not the tower itself. The storm had swallowed the rest.

Somewhere ahead Roose Bolton awaited them behind the walls of Winterfell, but Stannis Baratheon's host sat snowbound and unmoving, walled in by ice and snow, starving." - The King's Prize, ADWD

I would imagine it's far worse and frozen over going further North near Long Lake. So how does that square up with what Mel is describing to Mance about the location of the girl? 

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"She is staying well away from villages. When she can she rides along the bed of little streams, to throw hunters off her trail.” [...] “She is not coming up the kingsroad, then. Clever girl. There are fewer watchers on the other side, and more cover." - Mel, ADWD 

Where was Alys found? Near the village Mole's Town right next to the King's Road. Meanwhile, it's Arya who is getting all these little lessons on avoiding villages/King's Road while being hunted (while following the shoreline) during her time with Yoren/Sandor. Why is GRRM giving us all these extra details on where the girl is if he was just going to have Alys show up and be the obvious answer. It's too easy, don't you think ?  

 

 

[a black swan]

34 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yeah, I've seen this idea before, it pops up now and again. And usually the idea is that the lake Mel sees is the God’s Eye. Jeyne, Arya, and Sansa are the other options people propose. I am quite satisfied w/ the girl being Alys. That said, of all the other options, I like Lyanna the best. Because it would then be a vision of the past, like a n infodump for Mel, and that works for me. The others, though... not so much. B/c they’d happen in the current timeline, meaning we would have two very similar scenarios playing out: two girls, dressed in grey, riding dying horses and seeking Jon’s protection. I find that a bit much tbh.

Lyanna is my second best bet too. It fits the terrain Mel describes being near the Gods Eye and not Long Lake. 

But there is this point to consider:

Lyanna was found 10 leagues away from Harrenhal. That wouldn't put her on the Gods Eye's Western shore like Mel saw in her vision.

The False Spring, didn't that only last for 2 months? It was winter before and was winter right after this 2 month period of a false spring. I wonder if that small window of time was enough to thaw the huge Gods Eye lake to just a "thin coat of ice".

During the False Spring, the Blackwater Rush near King's Landing is even further south and was covered in ice. So the Gods Eye would have been frozen over solid.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

50 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

two girls, dressed in grey, riding dying horses and seeking Jon’s protection.

Jeyne would be wearing grey, but we don't know what Alys was wearing when she was found. When Jon met her, she was wearing a black cloak from the NW. I'm not sure that Mel saw the girl's face. Her description of the girl in her own thoughts is that she saw "a girl as grey as ash, and even as I watched, she crumbled and blew away." It's hard to tell how she came to the conclusion that the girl was fleeing her marriage. 

That said, the Lyanna option and a vision from the past would be neat. The beats of Jon's origin story, and R+L is being replayed in his current story.

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She is coming with Justin Masey (who has another role to play), Alysane Mormont, the black brothers and a number of Stannis knights and soldiers.

Yes, she is. And while Jeyne Poole would probably be hopeless at navigating the wild, the black brothers won't. These guys went from CB to Deepwood to Winterfell and managed to find the crofter's village in a snow storm and I'm assuming without a map.

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Jeyne would be wearing grey, but we don't know what Alys was wearing when she was found. When Jon met her, she was wearing a black cloak from the NW. I'm not sure that Mel saw the girl's face. Her description of the girl in her own thoughts is that she saw "a girl as grey as ash, and even as I watched, she crumbled and blew away." It's hard to tell how she came to the conclusion that the girl was fleeing her marriage. 

How do we know Jeyne would be wearing grey? I mean, last we saw she was putting on Squirrel’s clothes... I don’t remember anything about her changing clothes in TWoW Theon I nor any talk of giving her anything else to wear, but I haven’t read that chapter in a while. 

As to Mel’s descriptions and thoughts of this girl she saw, I never took it very literally... I mean, the girl could be “in grey”, as in, wearing grey clothes. But when she thinks about a girl “grey as ash” that crumbles and blows away I took it to be nature of visions and such, where things can be relayed visually but w/ metaphorical meaning, if that makes sense?

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That said, the Lyanna option and a vision from the past would be neat. The beats of Jon's origin story, and R+L is being replayed in his current story.

Yeah, it would.

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Yes, she is. And while Jeyne Poole would probably be hopeless at navigating the wild, the black brothers won't. These guys went from CB to Deepwood to Winterfell and managed to find the crofter's village in a snow storm and I'm assuming without a map.

If the vision is about Jeyne does it mean something happened to Massey, Alysane, Tycho Nestoris, etc? 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

13 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

How do we know Jeyne would be wearing grey? I mean, last we saw she was putting on Squirrel’s clothes... I don’t remember anything about her changing clothes in TWoW Theon I nor any talk of giving her anything else to wear, but I haven’t read that chapter in a while. 

I'm assuming she'll be wearing the same clothes that she escaped Winterfell in. She is wearing furs when she arrives at the crofter's village.

14 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

How do we know Jeyne would be wearing grey? I mean, last we saw she was putting on Squirrel’s clothes... I don’t remember anything about her changing clothes in TWoW Theon I nor any talk of giving her anything else to wear, but I haven’t read that chapter in a while. 

I think there is a metaphorical meaning to it. I always took crumbling and blowing away to mean that the girl was going to die and be burned.

But like I said, it's the location of Karhold in relation to Castle Black and Long Lake that's the snag that Alys is the girl on the dying horse. Otherwise, I'm not really bogged down by it.

18 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

If the vision is about Jeyne does it mean something happened to Massey, Alysane, Tycho Nestoris, etc? 

Nothing. They're just not in it. The vision didn't seem to be long as far as I understand and she says that she hasn't been able to find the girl again. 

The vision that Mel seems to have the most contest for and the better handle on is Jon's stabbing, but I think that it's because it's a recurring vision that she is able to gauge it properly. 

[Frey family reunion]

Well in the spirit of the times, I have a more sinister possibility.  Perhaps her vision was metaphorical, she saw instead the coming of a plague or plagues, the grey death and the pale mare.