Who is the Grey girl in Melisandre's fires?

[Springwatch]

30 minutes ago, Mithras said:

I didn't say Mel saw Arya. Mel saw a girl in her vision and then she saw Alys when she arrived to the Wall. Considering that Mel is the one who administered the wedding of Alys to Sigorn, she should have had a real good, close look on Alys. And if Alys was not the girl she saw in her vision, she would have told so. Same for the horse of Alys and the horse she saw on her vision.

The horse is not a problem; I don't think Mel ever saw Alys' horse. It might have died, I'm not sure.

The face, assuming the vision showed it, wouldn't have bothered Mel either, because of what she thought in the Eastwatch quote: 'The towers in her fire had been different, but that was oft the way with visions.' So, often, what you see in the vision, is a different version of what you actually get.

Add to this the thing about the visions can contain both prophecies (will happen) and warnings (may not happen if you act in time).

Getting consistently reliable information from fires just seems impossibly difficult. I think Mel has made good capital out of some very flaky raw material.

4 hours ago, Mithras said:

People need to understand that GRRM's storytelling is far more straightforward than what many online fans imagine.

Perhaps. Maybe yes and no. I'm going to disagree and say that, at least with prophecies, the storytelling is far more complicated than what many imagine. Multiple solutions are ok. It is also reality that's a bit weird - things repeat themselves a lot.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

The guys of the NW who found Alys cut the horse loose and took her in for questioning. So it doesn't seem like the horse even made it to CB.

[glassgardens]

Try this on for size: The girl in grey is Sansa, fleeing this marriage they’ve made for her (Harry or Robin or Littlefinger, take your pick) and heading for the Wall, fleeing from Anya Waynwood’s seat of Ironoaks. 

According to the wiki, Ironoaks sits beside a lake and from that lake drains a river that flows into the Narrow Sea. At the end of the river, there is a settlement or castle called Old Anchor, a name which would imply that this place was previously a major boat landing of the Vale, presumably before the rise of Gulltown. Even if it’s not active now, you probably could still get a ship in there, and with that ship, set off for Eastwatch-by-the-Sea.

Jon and Mel seem to think the girl in gray is headed west, and that would be the wiser direction to go get away from Littlefinger, given that if she gets on the high road or the King’s road, she gets closer to (a) the hill tribes, and (b) other people who would happily take her prisoner and sell her to Cersei, and (c) the lizard-lions.

As for the thin layer of ice on the lake in Mel’s vision, it is currently snowing in the Eyrie and the passes, but Sansa tells Robin “it will be warmer on the Valley floor.” So it’s cold in the Vale, but at lower elevations, not absolutely snowbound yet.

Furthermore, Mel says that the girl is staying on the little streams to stay off the road, but it’s very possible that this river is *the road* to get to the bay. (Do we know the name of this bay, which sits on the other side of a peninsula from Gulltown, which sits on the Bay of Crabs? I think Runestone sits on this body of water as well.)

And why was Sansa at Ironoaks? Because Harry is Lady Waynwood’s ward, and Ironoaks the only site suitable for a wedding sponsored by the Lord Protector of the Vale. The Eyrie is closed for winter (and Robin hates Harry anyway), and they need a place where they can host scores of guests. Given that it’s winter, letting all those visitors eat down your stores at a wedding is going to cost, but Anya’s got her big dowry from Littlefinger.

As for the rest of it: 
* gray is obviously Stark house colors—Sansa would absolutely dress thematically for rebellion against her false father and reclaim her Stark roots with an appropriate outfit

* if she’s already been outed as a Stark, it could even be her maiden’s cloak (maybe there’s a catastrophic pre- or post-marriage breakdown and she’s still wearing it when she runs)

* grey as ash — Stark gray and/or plain armor is compared with “soot” more than once

* dying horse — this is very interesting and I have nothing but guesses and theories; Sansa might have looked for a gentle horse she could manage and mistakenly picked a half-dead one (she’s evidenced no particular expertise on horseflesh as yet), or she may have picked a horse that was able to push hard and/or fight (like a destrier) that was injured in the attempt; or for that matter we have no idea what kind of synesthesia Melisandre experiences during her visions. It could very well just be a horse named Killer or Pale Mare that led Melisandre to make a leap and assume it was dying.

 

Side note: In addition to Jon Snow being at the Wall, as far as Sansa knows (as far as I know), her Uncle Benjen is also up there. Last she knew he was First Ranger. She might guess that he’s dead if Jon Snow is Lord Commander (and not Benjen) but she hasn’t been directly told.

[Rose of Red Lake]

1 minute ago, glassgardens said:

* if she’s already been outed as a Stark, it could even be her maiden’s cloak (maybe there’s a catastrophic pre- or post-marriage breakdown and she’s still wearing it when she runs)

* grey as ash — Stark gray and/or plain armor is compared with “soot” more than once

If she was wearing her maiden cloak, I think she would still want to be in disguise until she was somewhere safe. I think Sansa would be smart enough to cover her cloak in ashes to disguise it. Then the vision would be fulfilled but in a really surprising way; "girl as grey as ash." Prophecy fulfillment should come with surprise/delight for the reader. Alys doesn't quite do it.

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, glassgardens said:

Jon and Mel seem to think the girl in gray is headed west

I don’t remember either one saying she’s headed west, only that Mel tells Mance the lake is “to her west”.

“I saw water. Deep and blue and still, with a thin coat of ice just forming on it. It seemed to go on and on forever.”
“Long Lake. What else did you see around this girl?”

He frowned. “That will make it difficult. She was coming north, you said. Was the lake to her east or to her west?”
Melisandre closed her eyes, remembering. “West.”

[a black swan]

2 hours ago, Mithras said:

And if Alys was not the girl she saw in her vision, she would have told so.

Alys looks like Arya which Jon has confirmed. Now imagine seeing a girl in your flames only for a moment and as you watched the girl crumbled and blew away? It's not gonna be HD. 

"She had seen the girl only once. A girl as grey as ash, and even as I watched she crumbled and blew away." (ADWD Melisandre I)

This detail is also overlooked and fits Jeyne more accurately. 

The girl in the vision is "as grey as ash." 

And yet.

“[Alys] was blue from the cold, shivering like all get out, so Ty wanted Clydas to have a look at her.” (ADWD Jon IX)

 

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Same for the horse of Alys and the horse she saw on her vision.

So when did Mel look at Alys' horse? They left the horse where they found Alys back near Mole's Town where it lay dying. 

It's not adding up. 

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, a black swan said:

It's not adding up. 

The girl being Arya isn’t adding up either. For starters:

- what’s the match she’s running from? 

- who made said match for her?

- when is this supposed to happen? 

- Arya is still in Braavos as of early TWoW - and we don’t even know how early or not. There are Westerosis there, she may hear of Jon’s “death”, in which case, she wouldn’t be running to him for protection. 

Of the usual suspects (Alys, Lyanna, Sansa, Jeyne, Arya), Arya is the least likely of all. 

[a black swan]

3 hours ago, Springwatch said:

But do we know as a fact that Long Lake is frozen? (is that where Stannis is?) Long Lake is a very large body of water, and might take longer to freeze, especially if it's fed from relatively warmer water (volcannic, maybe).

Stannis and his crew are parked up in Crofters' Village which is south of Long Lake. They went ice fishing on the lakes near the village. So it must be frozen enough to hold their weight as they cut holes for ice fishing through the ice. Up north is Long Lake, which is farther along in freezing over.

 

Meanwhile Mel's vision:

Water deep, blue, still. Thin coat of ice just forming on it. Seemed to go on forever. West of the girl.
There are hills fields trees stones streams villages. A deer once. Staying away from villages.
Racing to Jon Snow for protection.
A girl in grey, grey as ash
On a dying horse
Fleeing from a marriage they have made for her
Even as I watched she crumbled and blew away
Jon Snow's sister. The vision has not happened yet.

"I saw water. Deep and blue and still. It seemed to go on and on forever. Hills. Fields. Trees. Stones." - Melisandre

~*~

"Gods Eye was a sheet of sun-hammered blue that filled half the world.

Every day they marched, and every night she said her names, until finally the trees thinned and gave way to a patchwork landscape of rolling hills, meandering streams, and sunlit fields, where the husks of burnt holdfasts (villages) thrust up black as rotten teeth." (ACOK Arya VI)

"When she glimpsed the lake ahead between houses and trees - She burst out onto the grassy sward beside the pebbled shore. The setting sun made the tranquil surface of the water shimmer like a sheet of beaten copper. It was the biggest lake she had ever seen, with no hint of a far shore." (ACOK Arya VI)


"She is staying well away from villages. When she can she rides along the bed of little streams, to throw hunters off her trail." - Melisandre

"Some days, as they made their slow way up the muddy shore (Gendry wanted no part of any roads, and even Hot Pie and Lommy saw the sense in that), Arya felt as though the lake were calling her. She wanted to leap into those placid blue waters, to feel clean again, to swim and splash and bask in the sun." (ACOK Arya V)

 

And yet.

Alys is found near a village close to the King's Road. 

Plus judging by the route she took travelling - Long Lake would be to her east. 

She is not grey as ash at any point. 

On her arrival, she is described as looking blue and later wearing a black oversized cloak. Her hair is brown, her eyes are blue-grey, and her clothes are black. The Karstark arms aren't grey but a white sunburst on black. Alys hasn't crumbled and blown away. 

I think it's Arya in the near future. How funny and ironic that Melisandre might have been right all along. 

An interesting note:

After the Hound captured Arya, she tried to leave a trail of breadcrumbs by marking trees.

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She had tried to help them by scratching her name on the trunks of trees when she went in the bushes to make water, but the fourth time she did it he caught her, and that was the end of that. It doesn't matter, Arya told herself, Thoros will find me in his flames. Only he hadn't. Not yet, anyway... (ASOS Arya IX)

Thoros may not have found her in the flames, but maybe another red priest did.

While travelling with the Hound, around the same time she was carving her name into trees Arya also sees:

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The rain was falling from a black iron sky, pricking the green and brown torrent with ten thousand swords. It must be a mile across, Arya thought. The tops of half a hundred trees poked up out the swirling waters, their limbs clutching for the sky like the arms of drowning men. Thick mats of sodden leaves choked the shoreline, and farther out in the channel she glimpsed something pale and swollen, a deer or perhaps a dead horse, moving swiftly downstream. There was a sound too, a low rumble at the edge of hearing, like the sound a dog makes just before he growls. (ASOS Arya IX)

 

[kissdbyfire]

31 minutes ago, a black swan said:

Alys is found near a village close to the King's Road. 

Plus judging by the route she took travelling - Long Lake would be to her east. 

How? I mean, wasn’t she coming from Karhold? 

[a black swan]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

The girl being Arya isn’t adding up either. For starters:

- what’s the match she’s running from? 

- who made said match for her?

- when is this supposed to happen? 

- Arya is still in Braavos as of early TWoW - and we don’t even know how early or not. There are Westerosis there, she may hear of Jon’s “death”, in which case, she wouldn’t be running to him for protection. 

Of the usual suspects (Alys, Lyanna, Sansa, Jeyne, Arya), Arya is the least likely of all. 

The marriage stuff... all Mel saw was a girl on a dying horse fleeing, grey as ash and crumbling away. How much of what she reported to Jon was conjecture to convince Jon and tell him what he wants to hear? Is that something worth considering? The marriage stuff sounds very convenient.

Quote

- when is this supposed to happen?

If it hasn't happened yet, as Mel clearly states to Jon... why are you asking that question? I can't give you a page number in Winds. 

Considering the location of the vision could be the God's Eye and it's Jon she's going to - I would assume Arya and Jon would have already reunited awhile ago. Separated at some point. The reason she is fleeing to him for portection is still tbc. 

Quote

Of the usual suspects (Alys, Lyanna, Sansa, Jeyne, Arya), Arya is the least likely of all. 

You mean all those red-herrings. The girl who can actually make that journey the way Mel described. The girl who has a deep and rather unexplained connection to the God's Eye. So whatever brought back there might be very important and with Arya - most likely dangerous. The reason she was there in the vision is still a mystery and the circumstances are yet to be known. I'd welcome you to explore the idea and see what comes of it. Especially since Long Lake cannot be in Mel's vision.

[a black swan]

50 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

How? I mean, wasn’t she coming from Karhold? 

Oh yeah, my mistake. I meant to say if she took the shortest route, especially alone, with little provisions, in harsh winter conditions. Where is the logic in turning west and travelling that close to Long Lake? Mel saw the God's Eye.

 

 

[kissdbyfire]

If it’s the God’s Eye then the girl is Lyanna. IMO. There’s also some who claim it’s Arya but that it already happened. To me, Arya (as something that will happen in the future) is the least likely of all candidates. But I sense Jonrya  shipping vibes here so I will bow out of the discussion. 

[Springwatch]

1 hour ago, a black swan said:

Stannis and his crew are parked up in Crofters' Village which is south of Long Lake. They went ice fishing on the lakes near the village. So it must be frozen enough to hold their weight as they cut holes for ice fishing through the ice. Up north is Long Lake, which is farther along in freezing over.

Because it's further north, it's colder? Ok, I understand, but it falls short of proof. The fishing lakes might be quite shallow and freeze easily, plus people tell me the cold weather is centred on Winterfell.

[Springwatch]

2 hours ago, glassgardens said:

Try this on for size: The girl in grey is Sansa, fleeing this marriage they’ve made for her (Harry or Robin or Littlefinger, take your pick) and heading for the Wall, fleeing from Anya Waynwood’s seat of Ironoaks.... [snip]

It makes a good story. I'm not really expecting it to happen, but it's a fact that Sansa is short of options for a safe house, and she has just learned that Jon is Lord Commander and has power to help her. She is being hunted too - actually too many hunters: the Vale people, Cersei's people, Brienne, Jaime, Stoneheart and the brotherhood. Sansa is not Arya. I don't think she could escape them all across country.

2 hours ago, glassgardens said:

* dying horse — this is very interesting and I have nothing but guesses and theories; Sansa might have looked for a gentle horse she could manage and mistakenly picked a half-dead one (she’s evidenced no particular expertise on horseflesh as yet), or she may have picked a horse that was able to push hard and/or fight (like a destrier) that was injured in the attempt; or for that matter we have no idea what kind of synesthesia Melisandre experiences during her visions. It could very well just be a horse named Killer or Pale Mare that led Melisandre to make a leap and assume it was dying.

Sansa is a pretty decent rider judging by her performance so far, but I totally agree a horse called Pale Mare would fit the the visions. We're told again and again that prophecy is treacherous, so it would be almost be a surprise if the grey girl prophecy was played out literally and completely on one character. I'm beginning to think the visions are like tarot cards (if fortune telling worked). The same card can be drawn by different people (Alys, Jeyne, Lyanna etc) - the meaning of the card stays the same, but it doesn't literally picture the event to come and it plays out differently every time.

[a black swan]

51 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Because it's further north, it's colder? Ok, I understand, but it falls short of proof. The fishing lakes might be quite shallow and freeze easily, plus people tell me the cold weather is centred on Winterfell.

It's Winter in the North. 

George already confirmed in a Q&A that it gets cold enough to freeze Long Lake enough to ice fish there as well. 

Thin coat of ice just forming is not anywhere in the North. 

 

 

[a black swan]

43 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

 I totally agree a horse called Pale Mare would fit the the visions.

Or maybe a horse named Stranger. The horse is black and shares a name with the Faith of the Seven's aspect of Death. A horse Arya has ridden downstream and has been described as being born in hell. 

 

Notice during her first meeting with the Kindly Man, Arya was offered three different lives:

One in service to a merchant, one as a courtesan, and one of marriage. 

Cat of the Canals. Very good chance she apprentices with a courtesan next (especially with the Black Pearl making several appearances in Arya's chapters, the shenanigans Mercy got up to seducing the guard, her growing awareness of her approaching maidenhood. If that gets checked off in Winds.... then wow.

"Or if it is marriage and children you desire, tell me, and we shall find a husband for you. Some honest apprentice boy, a rich old man, a seafarer, whatever you desire." 

 

[Springwatch]

Marriage can be a bit symbolic too. Varamyr (or his master) said bonding with a wolf was a marriage.

The 'dying horse' could be symbolic also. It's been discussed more than once that horses usually mirror their rider (I did it here). A dead horse generally means a dead rider or at least death of the old life. A dying horse could be taking its rider into deadly danger.

34 minutes ago, a black swan said:

George already confirmed in a Q&A that it gets cold enough to freeze Long Lake enough to ice fish there as well. 

But right now? George has not given us the proofs of that, no doubt deliberately.

[corbon]

I really like the Lyanna theory, which I hadn't really heard before (thats rare these days, so thanks all!). Certainly Gods Eye and the area around it very much fits the description, a lot better than Long Lake. And some time in the weeks or months before the time of Lyanna's 'abduction' there had been a severe cold snap after the False Spring that froze the Blackwater Rush. The ice 'forming' in Mel's vision could also be melting, un-forming.

I think the 'thin coat of ice just forming' basically rules out any near-current or near future version of Long Lake - that should be solidly frozen over by now for sure. Long Lake is well north of Winterfell and Winterfell had massive snow drifts piled high around it already - snow trenches and tunnels through the courtyards etc before fArya escaped (or Sansa came north, if she does). 

I also see that its both the girl in grey and the 'grey girl crumbling away to ash'. Lyanna would very likely be in grey (Stark colours) and the crumbling away part is suitable as the vision is in the past and Lyanna dead already - actually probably burned to ash and bone by Ned in order to speedily de-flesh her bones to carry back to Winterfell. And she is enstatued already (grey girl). 

I don't put any stock in anybody's 'interpretations' (Mel's or the commentary from people she tells things - she makes assumptions based on her thinking why the dreams might be shown her, and the people she tells make assumptions based on her assumptions), nor things like 'the name of the horse being relevant'. A dying horse is a dying horse IMO. 
I don't think Mel gets anything 'more' from the flames than literally just images, visions. The rest she imputes herself based on the imagery and what she thinks she knows, and why she thinks R'hlorr would show her these particular images. She has certainty in these things, which leads some of us to believe that there is 'more' data behind her certainty, but I think that that certainty is just her own false conviction and faith in herself - and we know how that actually works out!
The girl may be fleeing from a marriage she does not want (hmm, would that work with Lyanna if her marriage to Robert had been quietly pushed forward?) but I question (do not rule out) whether Mel has actual information on this or whether its just her presentation of the imagery she sees in the flames. It is clear that she believes the girl is Jon's sister (a similar look to the face, a Stark look, would be the only way I can see she would get that impression, frankly) and she desperately wants to win Jon's support. And she must know of the intended marriage between Arya and Ramsey Bolton. Seems to me that its entirely possible she just decided that the girl is fleeing a marriage as that suits her aims. Without any actual information from the flames that indicates this I mean.

Its not proven, but I think its a very strong case. And very relevant to Mel's uncontrolled visions if she keeps asking about AA and seeing (Jon) Snow. Seeing Snow's mother in the flames in a relevant piece of history to the birth of AA, seems within the bounds of such uncontrolled visions sent by external forces that have their own agendas.

So, if the vision is Lyanna (not confirmed, but strongest by far IMO) what implications does that have?

I wonder who she was being hunted by or fleeing from? Rhaegar and his men? Aerys' men? Outlaws? 

Outlaws seems dubious if she's keeping away from the populated areas - although its not impossible if, for example, the outlaws were supported by the local populace like the Kingswood Brotherhood or the BwB were and she'd already been betrayed once.
The riverlands and in particular the area are Harrenhal and the Gods Eye do have a particularly long history with outlaw groups.

Rhaegar and his men seem unlikely - basically its been pretty clear for a very long time that Robert's abduction and rape story was a joke, and Rhaegar and Lyanna ended as true lovers, which doesn't seem to gel with her fleeing and being chased by Rhaegar and his men - I put no stock in "Stockholm Syndrome' explanations. I think that would go very much against GRRMs romantic character. 
I also think that its likely Rhaegar and Lyanna made favourable impressions on each other at Harrenhal, when he traced tKotLT to her but didn't inform anyone and awarded her the QoLaB as a result. I think that argues pretty strongly against her fleeing from him here too.
OTOH, this could be the first real indication that the 'abduction narrative' story is not entirely as silly as it currently seems. There could yet be another twist in that tale.
I suspect Rhaegar is the one she is fleeing 'towards'. Not deliberately necessarily, but I suspect she more or less runs into him shortly after this vision. Or perhaps she gets taken and then he and his men run into her and her adbuctors and take her off their hands. Who knows at this point.

Some other non-outlaw band of men with authority enough to have her flee them, would seem most likely to be royalists, Aerys men effectively, seeking to take her. The only sensible reason why would seem to relate to the KotLT story again, and Aerys' paranoia. So perhaps that adds some weight to the theory that Lyanna's 'abduction' was related to Rhaegar protecting her from Aerys' KotLT demands. 
I wonder along these lines if there may have been a confrontation with her escort and  although she fled, the escort was killed by men from KL. That might explain why Brandon rode to KL...

I guess there is the possibility that her pursuers were Stark men and she was fleeing from a bumped forward marriage to Robert, but that seems far fetched to me. We'd definitely need to hear of actual wedding plans for that to have any credence at all IMO.

[Elegant Woes]

If Sansa is the Girl in Grey no way in hell would she wear her maiden cloak. She would be instantly recognized. A more realistic, and incredibly clever, way to do this would be if she wore the uniform of the silent sisters. This way she would disguise her appearance and voice (your speech is the easiest way to figure out whether you are nobility or commoner). Plus the silent sister garb is grey in color. Sansa disguising herself as a silent sister is a strong possibility that more people should consider. 

[corbon]

14 minutes ago, Elegant Woes said:

And last but not least, didn't Ned get out of the Vale through the silent sisters in order to raise the Stark bannermen for the rebellion? 

Huh?
I don't recall and can't find this. Do you have a source?