Who is the Grey girl in Melisandre's fires?

[Dot Com]

1 hour ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Sansa gains agency by being herself, there's not much more she needs to "learn."

Really disagree with you here. Sansa has obviously been set up to have a training arc, just like Arya and Bran. She's learning to play the game of thrones just as Arya is learning Faceless Man skills and Bran is learning to be a greenseer. There has to be a payoff to this training, even if they ultimately don't follow the path of their mentors. 

28 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Since you view Sansa's plot and existing talents as useless a waste of time so far I'm not really inclined to trust your opinion on the future plot. She's already won loyalties she's just not being flashy about it. You're missing a lot.

 

No offence but I'd say it's you who doesn't fully appreciate Sansa's plotline. There are a lot of things being built up in the Vale plotline - her relationship with Mya and Lothor, the appearance of Shadrich, the Royces plotting something, etc - that would be rendered moot if Sansa immediately skipped town for the North. Most of your reasoning for Sansa's future plot is "Sansa would like this, therefore it will happen" but that's not how stories tend to go.  

[Colonel Green]

5 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

That's a lack of imagination on your part. Sansa as the girl in the vision is only about her getting away from Littlefinger for a short time so that she doesn't have to go through with his plans of marriage. She can return to the Vale army on her own terms and with the backing of her family, and can take over by directing the grain and supply chains.

Sansa's going to travel halfway across the continent "for a short time" just so she can go back and interact with the same characters again?

Sansa doesn't need to run away to not go through with his marriage plans.  When she reaches the point of wanting to work against Littlefinger, she will do that in the Vale, and she'll do it on her own.  The Stark kids all have their own separate stories.  There's a reason why Arya can't find a boat to take her to the Wall and instead has to go to Braavos.  They will (in all likelihood) reunite for the final struggle with the White Walkers, but their separate skills development arcs will be playing out before that happens.  That will make their eventual reunion all the more notable.

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Since you view Sansa's plot and existing talents as useless a waste of time

How you got that from what I said, I have no idea.

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Yeah, because as a man he's been allowed to achieve that.

Immaterial to the fact that he has achieved that and his sisters have nothing akin to that experience, if we're engaged in a qualitative assessment.

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I think being a prisoner is actually part of her education on what NOT to do and how NOT to act. Why do you think this amounts to nothing?

I don't.  Again, no idea where you got that.

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The pattern so far has indicated that the flashier and more ambitious a leader is, the more likely they are to land flat on their face.

Jon certainly wasn't flashy (he could, if anything, have used more of that) and he's only 'ambitious' in the sense that what he's attempting to accomplish is ambitious, which reflects the needs of the hour.  So I'm not sure what that has to do with anything.

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He grinned. "I will hold you to that promise, my lady. Until that day, may I wear your favor in the tourney?"

^^^^^ This is a WRAP. When a guy asks for a Lady's favor, it's done. 

Ah yes, one mildly successful flirtation and men are ready to commit their resources and their lives to invading another region for you.  Being a politician is not as easy as you would seem to think it.

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"How difficult it is to operate in politics" isn't really the goal of her storyline like I said. Sansa has learned velvet glove techniques from the Tyrells - but the Tyrells are still trying too hard. Sansa gains power naturally, just by being herself. This is the culmination of her storyline. She gains loyalty simply by making people want to be better and achieve a higher ideal. It's really not Sansa that needs to learn all that much; it's the fools and bad people around her. Littlefinger trying to tell her about the arts of persuasion is a joke; she already knows how to do that.

Yeah, this is just silly.  Again, Ned Stark would have won the game of thrones easily if your theory of politics was what the books were getting at.  Sansa's not going to win the game of thrones just by asking nicely.  Inspiring some people to be better is definitely part of Sansa's story, but that's a one-on-one sort of thing, not the basis for mobilizing a whole region.  She's going to have to balance competing interests, cut deals, make moral compromises, and all the other necessary business to achieve her goals.

[Dot Com]

3 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

When she reaches the point of wanting to work against Littlefinger, she will do that in the Vale, and she'll do it on her own. 

Agree with everything except this. I think her plot line can and will move out of the Vale (and potentially merge with fAegon's?). The second Dance with Dragons is an ideal stage for her to use her newfound politicking skills, and probably the last "game of thrones" available to play before the ice zombies invade. 

[glassgardens]

re the ID as Jon's sister, even though it's called a "vision" and she says she sees it "clearly," we get the ID in that specific language, almost as a caption or a TV chyron. A voice in the flames may have spoken that label. It might not have been that Melisandre saw a specific face and saw such an obvious resemblance that she tagged the person as "sister." 

The label "Jon's sister" is received wisdom rather than a deduction based on family resemblance. 

I would argue that George is leaning on assumptions about the prevalence of the Northern "look" amongst characters who "matter."

[Colonel Green]

16 minutes ago, Dot Com said:

Agree with everything except this. I think her plot line can and will move out of the Vale (and potentially merge with fAegon's?). The second Dance with Dragons is an ideal stage for her to use her newfound politicking skills, and probably the last "game of thrones" available to play before the ice zombies invade. 

I disagree with that, for a couple of reasons.  Firstly, Littlefinger's whole strategy is to stay out of the slugging match that is grinding down assorted rivals, so they aren't going to be diving into the whole Lannister/Tyrell/fAegon/Martell mess.  Beyond which, Sansa has no motive to want to be involved in any of that herself -- she's got her immediate surroundings in the Vale, which will be a challenge to navigate, and then her concern is the North.  And by the time Sansa's in a position to call her own shots, we're likely to see the series' overarching Longest Night plot coming into sharper relief.  Sansa's not looking southward anymore.

Plus, anybody involved with fAegon is just going to get annihilated whenever Dany eventually shows up.

[Nagini's Neville]

23 minutes ago, Dot Com said:

Most of your reasoning for Sansa's future plot is "Sansa would like this, therefore it will happen" but that's not how stories tend to go.  

To add to that I honestly think there would be nothing, that Sansa would dislike more, than riding all alone on a "dying" horse to the wall to meet her half-brother. And I'm not sure she could survive this journey. Arya and Brienne already had an incredibly hard time. I really don't think, that Sansa could make it so easily. And IMO there is nothing wrong with that at all. This is a messed up world, where women are not save, everyone and their uncle is looking for a maid of 3 and 10 and on top of that Sansa just doesn't have the physical abilities needed to survive a journey like this- she looks like a girl, she can't fight like Brienne, she can't ride as well as Arya, don't think she'd eat worms. And again IMO there is absolutely nothing wrong with that! Sansa strengths lay elsewhere. I honestly think Sansa would die out of fear, if she was forced to undertake this journey and IMO rightfully so- it would be incredibly dangerous for her and I think she is smart enough to know better.

[Rose of Red Lake]

25 minutes ago, Dot Com said:

Really disagree with you here. Sansa has obviously been set up to have a training arc, just like Arya and Bran. She's learning to play the game of thrones just as Arya is learning Faceless Man skills and Bran is learning to be a greenseer. There has to be a payoff to this training, even if they ultimately don't follow the path of their mentors. 

 

She's been learning that, since Book 1. All the way to Book 4. Learning how to see better. Learning how to identify true from false. Learning how people are trying to use her. Learning the value of the Stark name. Learning how to win loyalty by simply showing concern and being decent to people. Learning how tourneys inspire ideals of knighthood. Learning how the world is crueler and harsher than she thinks it is. Learning how lords can be swayed through gifts and prizes. It's seriously...all she's been doing these last four books, is learning. And you want her to do more of that?

It's time she took her learning and applied it in the Northern stage, in a setting in which SHE HERSELF FEELS STRONGER IN.

28 minutes ago, Dot Com said:

No offence but I'd say it's you who doesn't fully appreciate Sansa's plotline. There are a lot of things being built up in the Vale plotline - her relationship with Mya and Lothor, the appearance of Shadrich, the Royces plotting something, etc - that would be rendered moot if Sansa immediately skipped town for the North. Most of your reasoning for Sansa's future plot is "Sansa would like this, therefore it will happen" but that's not how stories tend to go.  

Well, yes, Sansa doesn't want to marry again. Does that mean she's going to have to get married?? Acting on her motivations, and desires, for returning home, is also how stories work. Getting there is the plot.

Most of folks' reasoning for Sansa's plot seems to be that she needs to spend more time in the Vale, because there are characters there, and they have to stay there because no one leaves the Vale, ever!

But really, they are itching to make a move and enter a war because they sat out Robb's. And, characters can move North. This is LF's plan and where the table is being set for the next "game." 

Mya and Sansa don't really have a bond or anything like that. She seems very much like a Margaery, who enters Sansa's storyline for a time and then exits. GRRM can wrap that up quickly at no loss to her storyline. I think Lothor is likely the sympathizer who is more likely to help her escape LF. Shadrich is set for a kidnapping to take her AWAY from the Vale (just like all signs point to her exit very soon). The two Royces can come into conflict quickly, Nestor is just a puppet who falls when LF does. I think people are putting way too much emphasis on a place that is only there to serve as a way for her to win allyship and an army. If Dany won agency in a single book, Sansa can too. Fortunes can change rapidly with a single, well-written scene. Imagine a book where settings change because of the author's love of travelogue. Very easy in my view. 

[Colonel Green]

6 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Most of folks' reasoning for Sansa's plot seems to be that she needs to spend more time in the Vale, because there are characters there, and they have to stay there because no one leaves the Vale, ever!

No, because the author has invested a lot of time setting up this location and setting up Sansa's place in it.

And also because Sansa will grow more as a character having her own storyline and not being able to rely on others, which is why GRRM has kept her apart from her family (and frankly, from benevolent influences in general; of all the Stark kids, she's received by far the least unselfish assistance from other characters) -- just as with the other Starks.  Like I said, there's a reason Arya couldn't just find a ship to take her to the Wall like she wanted.

[winter daughter]

@Rose of Red Lake

Sansa has yet to accomplish something big in the Vale. Yes SR is fond of her but he is just a kid and it's his guardian that needs to be on her side and for that she has to deal with LF first and to defeat such a big villain she is in need of allies and she can't make alliances if she just flee and leave everything behind.

She was a helpless hostage in KL but here she actually has the opportunity to make use of her skills and turn the situation around instead of running away like before.

And if Sansa succeed in the Vale then she won't return to the North as a lonely and helpless refugees in need of protection but a powerful figure with Vale's support at her back.

 

[Rose of Red Lake]

56 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Yeah, this is just silly.  Again, Ned Stark would have won the game of thrones easily if your theory of politics was what the books were getting at.  Sansa's not going to win the game of thrones just by asking nicely.  Inspiring some people to be better is definitely part of Sansa's story, but that's a one-on-one sort of thing, not the basis for mobilizing a whole region.  She's going to have to balance competing interests, cut deals, make moral compromises, and all the other necessary business to achieve her goals.

She's already made moral compromises and managed competing interests! Marrying the the freaking enemy? Being forced to live as a traitor to her family? She's had to stick it out with LF as her "protector" even though she knows he's a pedo and wears a false face. She's learned how to gain sympathetic allies with a kind word or gesture - this goes far in diplomatic relations. And yes, in a world where everyone is trying to leapfrog over each other for power, Sansa gains it by not even trying. That's the whole idea, how to be a new game player, to take the realpolitik ideas from Littlefinger, then disregarding the rest because his views on politics have a LIMIT, especially on the Northern stage that he wants to play on. LF doesn't really understand the North even though he wants to help Sansa reclaim her birthright. Sansa can put 2+2 together very quickly on the skillset needed to play in this field. 

Like I said, the entire plot of "training" story so far has mostly unfolded. Gaining the support of an entire region is already happening, it doesn't need that much more plotting to get people to follow the daughter of Ned Stark who has already charmed everyone as Alayne. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

10 minutes ago, winter daughter said:

@Rose of Red Lake

Sansa has yet to accomplish something big in the Vale. Yes SR is fond of her but he is just a kid and it's his guardian that needs to be on her side and for that she has to deal with LF first and to defeat such a big villain she is in need of allies and she can't make alliances if she just flee and leave everything behind.

She was a helpless hostage in KL but here she actually has the opportunity to make use of her skills and turn the situation around instead of running away like before.

And if Sansa succeed in the Vale then she won't return to the North as a lonely and helpless refugees in need of protection but a powerful figure with Vale's support at her back.

Devising a tourney and gaining the love of the people (and power) through political theater - that's her big accomplishment, soon to play out in Winds. I doubt this will take up much time, a chapter or so. With Sweetrobin, Harry, random knights, LF on her side already even as Alayne - and she will probably gain more power with Bronze Yohn when she reveals herself as Sansa. It seems like the set up is already there.

[Rose of Red Lake]

31 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

No, because the author has invested a lot of time setting up this location and setting up Sansa's place in it.

He invested about 3 books' worth of story time in King's Landing. Then she left. Time invested doesn't guarantee a plot spent in the same setting; and like I said - surrounding characters can MOVE.

The Vale was never her home; she knows this.

What do you think the importance of the snow castle scene was?

Not to mention slaying in a giant in a castle made of snow...I mean if you're not a fan of Sansa as the Grey Girl; that's certainly another prophecy that suggests she's going back North, this time to kill Baelish.

[winter daughter]

25 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Devising a tourney and gaining the love of the people (and power) through political theater - that's her big accomplishment, soon to play out in Winds. I doubt this will take up much time, a chapter or so. With Sweetrobin, Harry, random knights, LF on her side already even as Alayne - and she will probably gain more power with Bronze Yohn when she reveals herself as Sansa. It seems like the set up is already there.

Well I think you are too optimistic but either way she'll not end up as the Grey Girl if the Vale situation turns out in her favor.

[Rose of Red Lake]

20 minutes ago, winter daughter said:

Well I think you are too optimistic but either way she'll not end up as the grey girl if her Vale arc ends in her favor.

How so? I don't see these two plots as necessarily incompatible.

I see one of two possibilities - First, after gaining allies and charming at the tourney, she gets kidnapped by Shadrich or stolen by Timmett. Then she escapes the kidnappers to go North to Jon with the help of Lothor. Littlefinger gets wind of this somehow that she's gone North, and moves the Vale army North much faster than he had anticipated to track down his prize. She reconnects much later with Harry and Myranda when their forces are installed in Winterfell. A happy outcome, I would like to see is for Sansa to call the marriage off and arrange the marriage between Harry and Myranda herself. Then she would gain experiences making marriage alliances (its also what Myranda wants). She can persuade Harry that it's a good match which shouldn't be too hard since he seems like a total dupe when it comes to women. 

Or, a second possibility is, after the tourney, Sansa is set to marry Harry, but LF will want the marriage to happen in Winterfell to gain legitimacy. The Vale forces move North for the wedding, but Sansa is kidnapped - or escapes - on the way there. 

In both scenarios, Sweetrobin is howling that "his Alayne" is missing and wants to move heaven and earth to find her. So does LF. So does Harry. After reconnecting with Jon she returns back to the Vale forces, now in her pocket, and now in the North.

[Bear Claw]

50 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

No, because the author has invested a lot of time setting up this location and setting up Sansa's place in it.

And also because Sansa will grow more as a character having her own storyline and not being able to rely on others, which is why GRRM has kept her apart from her family (and frankly, from benevolent influences in general; of all the Stark kids, she's received by far the least unselfish assistance from other characters) -- just as with the other Starks.  Like I said, there's a reason Arya couldn't just find a ship to take her to the Wall like she wanted.

Yes, but some of that set up  is showing some major cracks in her Vale foundation. I mean look at Randa and the Mad Mouse. Randa's actions are indicating that she  might know who Sansa is, and Randa seems to have an eye on Harry the Heir herself. I think she wants to get rid of Sansa. Then there is the Mad Mouse who would like to take Sansa to KL for a reward. Her place in the Vale is not that secure, and the author definitely has set up some ways that she leaves the Vale. Where she would go? I have not clue, but it wouldn't surprise me that she leaves soon due to malicious actions of other characters. 

[Colonel Green]

48 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

She's already made moral compromises and managed competing interests! Marrying the the freaking enemy? Being forced to live as a traitor to her family? She's had to stick it out with LF as her "protector" even though she knows he's a pedo and wears a false face.

Not the sort of thing I was talking about, as you're well aware.  And being forced to do some things because you're a prisoner is not the same thing as actively making plans and having to weigh options.

48 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

She's learned how to gain sympathetic allies with a kind word or gesture - this goes far in diplomatic relations. And yes, in a world where everyone is trying to leapfrog over each other for power, Sansa gains it by not even trying. 

That's not how politics works.

48 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Like I said, the entire plot of "training" story so far has mostly unfolded. Gaining the support of an entire region is already happening, it doesn't need that much more plotting to get people to follow the daughter of Ned Stark who has already charmed everyone as Alayne. 

She's proved herself an amiable hostess.  There's a cavernous gulf between that and getting people to go to war for you.

28 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

He invested about 3 books' worth of story time in King's Landing. Then she left. Time invested doesn't guarantee a plot spent in the same setting; and like I said - surrounding characters can MOVE.

Yes, she left because her story possibilities there were played out and she needed to be in a location with room to grow.  Which is the Vale, moreso than the North at this particular juncture.

28 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

What do you think the importance of the snow castle scene was?

It signals the importance of Winterfell in her story.  Hardly anybody disputes that Sansa will return home.  We're merely discussing the story beats to get her there.

28 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Not to mention slaying in a giant in a castle made of snow...I mean if you're not a fan of Sansa as the Grey Girl; that's certainly another prophecy that suggests she's going back North, this time to kill Baelish.

It's getting wintery in the Vale now as well, but in any case, that particular prophecy (if it's still active; we'll not know, of course, until Littlefinger actually does or does not die in circumstances that fulfill it, or else it turns out to involve a literal giant or something) alos doesn't dictate her returning to Winterfell posthaste.

6 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

She can persuade Harry that it's a good match which shouldn't be too hard since he seems like a total dupe when it comes to women. 

Harry actually has fairly strong (and shallow) opinions about female beauty that exclude Myranda.

3 minutes ago, Bear Claw said:

Yes, but some of that set up  is showing some major cracks in her Vale foundation. I mean look at Randa and the Mad Mouse. Randa's actions are indicating that she  might know who Sansa is, and Randa seems to have an eye on Harry the Heir herself. I think she wants to get rid of Sansa. Then there is the Mad Mouse who would like to take Sansa to KL for a reward. Her place in the Vale is not that secure, and the author definitely has set up some ways that she leaves the Vale. Where she would go? I have not clue, but it wouldn't surprise me that she leaves soon due to malicious actions of other characters. 

The narrative is obviously setting up potential twists to occur (if there weren't any, the story would be boring).  But, to cite Shadrich for instance, Sansa being dragged to KL as a prisoner is such an obvious dead end (literally, it ends with Sansa dead) that it's difficult to envision him succeeding there.

With Myranda, we're also meant to be suspicious, but I don't think, on close examination, the evidence especially supports regarding her as a hostile party.  Particularly as the occasionally hinted-at motivation (claiming Harry) doesn't actually make any sense, since getting rid of Alayne doesn't lead to her getting married to Harry, when she's already been rejected and Harry isn't likely to find her to his taste.  Myranda's a good example of the sort of unpredictable factor at play in the Vale's politics, and I think might well end up proving to be an ally -- which Sansa needs, because you can't become a player without anybody who's open to allying with you.  That's the difference between King's Landing, where she had no freedom of movement and no potential friends, and the Vale, which has a whole range of characters with different attitudes and motivations.

[Rose of Red Lake]

9 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Not the sort of thing I was talking about, as you're well aware.  And being forced to do some things because you're a prisoner is not the same thing as actively making plans and having to weigh options.

 

She's had to make compromises to her own ideals and vision for what she thought life would be. She's had to pretend to be an ally with a hated enemy. She's had to learn the art of surface acting.

Ned couldn't handle it, neither could Arya. And learning how to be a subordinate is a valuable skill; in fact, that's what everyone is doing in politics if they want to rise. 

If Sansa could "actively make plans and weigh options" at this juncture, she would choose to 1) not be married off, and 2) to go home to Winterfell. Bye bye Vale if she had the choice. 

I'm not convinced that anything related to her making political choices has to take place there. 

18 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

That's the difference between King's Landing, where she had no freedom of movement and no potential friends, and the Vale, which has a whole range of characters with different attitudes and motivations.

To use a goldilocks metaphor - the porridge isn't quite right. Something is off there, and its likely because she's a Stark who belongs in Winterfell (her slow realization to this point will be EPIC). She was taken there against her will, so her going to a place on her own free will, would actually be a major decision point in her storyline. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

45 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Harry actually has fairly strong (and shallow) opinions about female beauty that exclude Myranda.

 

He seems like a Robert 2.0 that will fuck anything that moves. I dont think Myranda will care if he has a sidepiece, she just wants a status boost.

46 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

It's getting wintery in the Vale now as well, but in any case, that particular prophecy (if it's still active; we'll not know, of course, until Littlefinger actually does or does not die in circumstances that fulfill it, or else it turns out to involve a literal giant or something) alos doesn't dictate her returning to Winterfell posthaste.

 

Yes but the possibility that the Vale story with LF will move up to Winterfell is there, if Winterfell is indeed the "castle made of snow." The Eyrie is described as a castle made of ice. Winterfell as the snow castle is hugely symbolic.

48 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

It signals the importance of Winterfell in her story.  Hardly anybody disputes that Sansa will return home.  We're merely discussing the story beats to get her there.

 

Yes I think since it is more important than her storyline at the Eyrie and at this juncture her field needs to be expanded to the North; she needs to gain closer ties to that region if she is to be a major player there. Her swooping in at the end isnt really going to do much. People will just be like: who is this girl?? We don't know her. 

50 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Yes, she left because her story possibilities there were played out and she needed to be in a location with room to grow.  Which is the Vale, moreso than the North at this particular juncture.

 

I dont think she has much growth potential in the Vale. What she really needs to grow is to make a decision about where she wants to go. It's odd that your form of "agency" for her is to stay in a place that she was taken against her will under false pretenses.

As I've said she's mostly accomplished what needs to be done there. She just needs to gain control of the army and food, that she will have to use effectively in the North. 

[winter daughter]

1 hour ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

In both scenarios, Sweetrobin is howling that "his Alayne" is missing and wants to move heaven and earth to find her. So does LF. So does Harry. After reconnecting with Jon she returns back to the Vale forces, now in her pocket, and now in the North.

Well I don't share your opinion but thanks for the explanation.

Btw I sense Jonsa vibes from your posts, do you ship them by any chance?

[corbon]

8 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

So now people are arguing that Mel is right when 2 seconds ago they were arguing she's wrong. Like I said, visions are never straightforward even if Mel thinks they are. 

There's a huge difference between being clear about what she saw, and 'right' when describing the visuals. and equally being clear in her interpretations and imputations, but wrong in those.

Her visions are accurate, I don't think anyone disputes that. Its the understanding that she creates of them that is regularly flawed. 

5 hours ago, glassgardens said:

re the ID as Jon's sister, even though it's called a "vision" and she says she sees it "clearly," we get the ID in that specific language, almost as a caption or a TV chyron. A voice in the flames may have spoken that label.

Have their been any voices in the flames speaking information, any time?

I can find two. Neither of them are part of flame-visions though, IMO. The first is the voice in the blue flames created from burning Varys' genitals. I think its very clear thats a very different kind of magic.
the second is Mel herself, immediately after her vision of Bran and Bloodraven. But I always read that as being internal, not in the flames she had been looking at, but in her heart and mind, which are also consumed by flame. I can see how you might read that as being voices in the flame. I challenge you to find any other indication anywhere at any time that Mel has 'heard' anything in the flames.

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The red priestess shuddered. Blood trickled down her thigh, black and smoking. The fire was inside her, an agony, an ecstasy, filling her, searing her, transforming her. Shimmers of heat traced patterns on her skin, insistent as a lover's hand. Strange voices called to her from days long past. "Melony," she heard a woman cry. A man's voice called, "Lot Seven." She was weeping, and her tears were flame. And still she drank it in.

I think this passage is something a lot different from the usual 'external' visions in the flames she sees. More associated with her internal memories than external 'visions' sent by R'hlorr.

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It might not have been that Melisandre saw a specific face and saw such an obvious resemblance that she tagged the person as "sister." 

Agreed. It might not be that. But thats the most likely way given the information and circumstances given to us. Its reasonable, logical, and fits with the methodology of the visions we've seen. Its something we can understand and accept without creating, on our own, data that GRRM hasn't given us.

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The label "Jon's sister" is received wisdom rather than a deduction based on family resemblance. 

Because... you decided it based on your need, rather than the evidence? Funny how you went suddenly from 'might not' be A to 'is' B.

I'm gonna stick with the evidence.

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I would argue that George is leaning on assumptions about the prevalence of the Northern "look" amongst characters who "matter."

I would argue you are just making shit up (voices in the flames, received wisdom) to suit your ideas.