Arya's storyline going forward

[zandru]

6 hours ago, glassgardens said:

OK in the books she's eating dogs and people as Nymeria (dogs are cousins of wolves and people are people) which is a bad sign for her ability to re-enter civilization without wearing a constructed persona/mask. 

There's nothing wrong with eating dogs, either as a wolf or a woman. A meal isn't complete without at least a couple of dog dishes in Meereen, after all. Furthermore, Arya is just coming to realize that her consciousness is with Nymeria during her "dreams." It isn't as if Arya is forcing Nym to kill and eat humans. For what it's worth, Summer has eaten of human flesh when that's all there is, and nobody has accused Bran of inhumanity or being unable to re-enter civilization.

Several in various forums have talked about Arya being a madwoman killing machine. But everything in the House of Black & White chapters speaks of the order's discipline, its rules, its rigid control, and its expertise. This is what Arya is absorbing. Not yet completely; when she encounters a deservingly hated target, that individual is dead. But Arya also has to be convinced to take out a designated target. She's not a conscienceless, indiscriminate killer. She will not become one, either from her training nor her own inclinations.

[Mithras]

10 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Why is it unlikely people will learn of the assassination attempt but not the alleged desertion?

ETA: yeah, letters about the desertion will spread the news. But if things go well for Marsh - and they won’t - he’d also have to send letters about the NW having a new LC.

 

Also, there were other black brothers there when Marsh and co stabbed Jon, it’s not like it was just Jon and the traitors. 

The rest doesn’t make much sense either. Val is going to steal his body? How? Marsh will think he’s dead, but then is ok w/ his body having disappeared? 

“We need to dig those cells out.”

“Ten stewards and ten spades should do it,” said Marsh.

“Use Wun Wun too.”

“As you command.”

Ten stewards and one giant made short work of the drifts, but even when the doors were clear again, Jon was not satisfied. “Those cells will be buried again by morning. We’d best move the prisoners before they smother.”

The ice cells will be buried by the morning. During the night, if one snatches the body, their tracks will be covered by the falling snow. Marsh will think that Jon is safely buried down in the ice cells while claiming that he deserted.

There were other brothers but everyone was shouting and the major spotlight was on the giant who was tearing up Patrek.

I am guessing that Val will get help from a group of wildlings including Borroq. He will know, just by looking at Ghost, that Jon is stuck in it. They will dig the body during the night. His boar should be helpful. They will take the body to Queensgate where Morna will know what to do, which I think involves the ritual sacrifice of Ghost to heal Jon and bring his soul back to his body.

Things will go well for Marsh, for a while. But they can't have a new LC without an election, which seems very unlikely considering the current situation. He will take the command as the castellan until a new election is made. I am also guessing that Thorne secretly returned from ranging, by bertaying and killing his brothers; and Marsh is hiding him and he is the mastermind behind all this. They will rule Castle Black for a while until Jon heals and gathers some followers to deal with them.

[a black swan]

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

At some point I think she will meet Jeyne Poole.  Most likely, she will hear that "Arya Stark" is in town, probably staying with the banker.  Arya will pay a visit to find out what is going on. 

100% agree. Gonna be interesting!

Arya has been in Braavos for some time now, so what are thee chances we see this event through her POV:

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Sealord Uthero Zalyne put an end to that secrecy, sending forth his ships to every corner of the world to proclaim the existence and location of Braavos, and invite men of all nations to celebrate the 111th festival of the city’s founding… The anniversary of the Uncloaking is celebrated every year in Braavos with ten days of feasting and masked revelry–a festival like none other in all the known world, culminating at midnight on the tenth day, when the Titan roars and tens of thousands of revelers and celebrants remove their masks as one.

With possibly Tyrion or maybe even Dany in town during the festivities? Could you imagine the scenes 

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Jeyne will probably give her information that leads her to decide to return to Westeros.  I expect Arya to return around the middle of TWOW, probably with Jeyne in tow.  (Although they have had their differences, I can't see Arya abandoning her in Braavos.)  Their most likely landing spot is the Riverlands, as she has friends and people who know her there.

Lady Stoneheart has been busy and currently working through own plans that may or may not involve a lost stark girl she has been looking for. 

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I think training with a courtesan is a possibility.   Not to learn about sex, per se, but how to influence people and affect events as a woman.

Yeah, most likely as a handmaid where she can be mentored by one of the courtesans, most likely the Black Pearl. We see Arya already moving in that direction (successfully) with the events in Mercy. 

  

[Pdor]

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I think training with a courtesan is a possibility.   Not to learn about sex, per se, but how to influence people and affect events as a woman.

I agree with the above. The way I interpreted the sample chapter, she is taking 2 pigeons with one stone (I see it as a lucky coincidence). After that, I think she will be sent to train under a courtesan. Then, after some other identity conflict, she may go back to Westeros. I don't know how easy will be leaving the FM, but I think will be rather troublesome: you don't just leave a cult of murderers without consequences. Aum Shinrikyo is a very good real life example in that regard (and the same is true, even if not so drastically, for other, bigger cults even if they aren't involved in murders).

After her return, I easily see her keeping working on her list and meeting some of her family members. I don't know how she will partake the bigger events such as the dispute for the throne or the war against the Others, since she never has. I see her more interested in her personal goals and her family/pack.

 

[dbergkvist]

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

Arya's actions in the preview chapter will put her on thin ice with the FM.  They may keep her around for a while, or transfer her, but eventually they will break ties.  I expect the FM may exact a price for leaving without consequence: that she help them from time to time with Intel, shelter, etc.

The faceless men are not stupid. They know of her list, and obviously placed her where they did so that she would kill Raff. Sure, they'll complain and say that what she did violated their rules, but that will just be a ruse on their part in order to manipulate her further.

And to answer the general question, what's in store for Arya: she is a pawn to the faceless men, so what's in store for Arya depends entirely on what their plan with her is.

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, dbergkvist said:

The faceless men are not stupid. They know of her list, and obviously placed her where they did so that she would kill Raff. Sure, they'll complain and say that what she did violated their rules, but that will just be a ruse on their part in order to manipulate her further.

And to answer the general question, what's in store for Arya: she is a pawn to the faceless men, so what's in store for Arya depends entirely on what their plan with her is.

She has been at that location for several months, well before any envoy was contemplated, much less one with a bodyguard on her list.

They do know about the list, though.  They will know she has killed for personal reasons, a no-no for the FM.  That will not make them happy and further indicate that she is unsuited for being an assassin.

 

[Mithras]

Now, as for Arya’s story going forward;

First of all, the killing of Raff was part of Arya’s job. The FM was commissioned to create a scandal to sabotage the mission of Harys Swyft so that he would be forced to return empty handed. The IB is not willing to extend further loans to Cersei unless she makes payments for the current debts first. However, they cannot openly reject the emissary of the IT. That is bad for business as it might lead the IT to declare moratorium. Therefore, a scandal leading to public outrage against Harys Swyft in Braavos should do the trick. According to the scenario, one of the guards of the emissary will rape and murder a young Braavosi girl and they will make sure to incite the locals against Harys Swyft. The Sealord will intervene and try to calms things down. The IB representatives will “sadly” inform Ser Harys that they cannot give him loans under the current tense situation for fear of reaction from the locals. After the Mercy chapter, the body of the real Mercy will be found raped and murdered. The body of Raff will be found later, seemingly killed in a drunken brawl by some bravos after the vile act. And from there, the scenario will be played accordingly as explained above.

As for Arya, she will be sent to a courtesan to further study spying and politics. Meanwhile, Justin Massey will come to Braavos with Jeyne and Theon. Because of that deadly march to Winterfell, Massey lost heart to the cause of Stannis. When Stannis asked him to go to Bravos, it was a chance for Massey to save his life. He also wanted to take Asha for securing his future as well, which is why he asked to take Asha with them. In Braavos Massey will claim fArya for himself and try to secure their future with her Stark name. This is where Arya will finally come and talk to Jeyne. She will learn everything from her and seeing Massey being a dick, she will slay him. Her rage for what Ramsay did to Jeyne (and Theon for that matter) will spill over the Narrow Sea and take over Nymeria who will lead her pack north. They will have a bite of Boltons and especially Ramsay’s bitches.

After talking to Jeyne and Theon, Arya will have a change of heart. Maybe the news of the desertion of Jon because of a fake Arya will do the trick. Or maybe Bran will reach out to her in a wolf dream. She will switch places with Jeyne and return to Westeros with Theon on a ship. She will leave the ship at Maidenpool whereas Theon will stay until he reaches to Oldtown. In Riverlands, she will track down Lady Stoneheart and put an end to her misery.

This should be the end of TWoW for her. All this can be done with three more chapters after Mercy.

[Colonel Green]

4 minutes ago, Mithras said:

According to the scenario, one of the guards of the emissary will rape and murder a young Braavosi girl and they will make sure to incite the locals against Harys Swyft.

The "rape" Mercy was referring to was part of the stage performance she was appearing in.

[zandru]

57 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

The "rape" Mercy was referring to was part of the stage performance she was appearing in.

Exactly. And, ironically, Arya was portraying Sansa. And her lines were simply

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She only had a few, and most were just, “Oh, no, no, no,” and “Don’t, oh don’t, don’t touch me,” and “Please, m’lord, I am still a maiden,”

 

[dbergkvist]

1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

The "rape" Mercy was referring to was part of the stage performance she was appearing in.

I don't think Mithras was referring to Arya's thoughts. Arya was thinking about the play, but Mithras' theory seems to be that the faceless men intend to rape and murder the real Mercy behind Arya's back, which is completely unrelated to what's going on in the play.

[Moiraine Sedai]

I don't see a happy ending for Arya. She doesn't deserve a happy ending.  Her wanton acts of murder will continue and they will quickly catch up to her.  She will die as violently as the ones she has.murdered.  Arya reeks of death and that should include her own.  

[a black swan]

2 hours ago, zandru said:

Exactly. And, ironically, Arya was portraying Sansa. And her lines were simply

 

“Please, m’lord, I am still a maiden,”

Would a highborn say that I wonder? 

[Mithras]

4 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

The "rape" Mercy was referring to was part of the stage performance she was appearing in.

Yes and ironically, that was also Arya's true mission.

[Mithras]

3 hours ago, dbergkvist said:

I don't think Mithras was referring to Arya's thoughts. Arya was thinking about the play, but Mithras' theory seems to be that the faceless men intend to rape and murder the real Mercy behind Arya's back, which is completely unrelated to what's going on in the play.

No, not behind Arya's back. There are many ways for the FM to produce this body. The FM are more than capable of finding a corpse of the right gender/stature and putting Mercy's face on it. Or perhaps it will be the real corpse of Mercy. The FM do not murder people randomly, but perhaps someone made a sacrifice to the temple for Mercy's murder. Yeah, she is a happy soul and slightly simpleton, meaning that she should not have any enemies. But we learn that the show business is vicious in Braavos and it is not a stretch that someone might have made this sacrifice to get Mercy's job at Izembaro's.

[zandru]

10 hours ago, dbergkvist said:

the faceless men intend to rape and murder the real Mercy behind Arya's back

The "real Mercy"? Arya is the "real" and original Mercy, as far as the text indicates. She hasn't replaced anybody; isn't doing the magic faceskin schtick. I'm not sympathetic to this whole "set up Harys Swift with a scandal" storyline; seems far fetched and byzantine to me. Why would "the locals" go berzerk at hearing a mummer girl was violated and killed? Mummers are a short step above cutpurses; girls routinely sell their "charms" and if they run into the wrong punter, well, that's market forces for you. It's a conspiracy theory.

Of course, your mileage may differ.

[dbergkvist]

44 minutes ago, zandru said:

The "real Mercy"? Arya is the "real" and original Mercy, as far as the text indicates. She hasn't replaced anybody; isn't doing the magic faceskin schtick.

Arya is referred to as "Mercy" throughout the chapter, except at the moment she says "You think so?" to Raff -- then she's "Arya". And she's acting way too old for her age without anyone seeming to notice.

[Nevets]

14 hours ago, Mithras said:

The IB is not willing to extend further loans to Cersei unless she makes payments for the current debts first. However, they cannot openly reject the emissary of the IT. That is bad for business as it might lead the IT to declare moratorium. Theref

There is already a moratorium on payment.  That's why Swyft is there in the first place.   So if they reject his offer, they are no worse off than before

 And the death of an actress isn't likely to cause much scandal.  She's free-lancing, and depending on how much trouble it causes, the FM will be anywhere from miffed to seriously angry at her.  In any event, it will cause trouble for her.

[a black swan]

4 hours ago, zandru said:

I'm not sympathetic to this whole "set up Harys Swift with a scandal" storyline; seems far fetched and byzantine to me. Why would "the locals" go berzerk at hearing a mummer girl was violated and killed? Mummers are a short step above cutpurses; girls routinely sell their "charms" and if they run into the wrong punter, well, that's market forces for you.

I think the theory goes:

They would care because the killer is Westerosi.

Braavosi are quite weird when it comes to foreigners. George goes out of his way to illustrate the division i.e. Look at the different harbours they force non-Braavosi to use. 

George highlights Mercy's heritage very clearly. Look what Mercy's friend Daena immediately says when Arya points out Raff:

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Mercy had been born and bred in Braavos, how could she know some Westerosi? She had to think a moment. “It’s only… well, he’s fair to look on, don’t you think?” He was, in a rough-hewn way, though his eyes were hard.

Daena shrugged. “He’s very old. Not so old as the other ones, but… he could be thirty. And Westerosi. They’re terrible savages, Mercy. Best stay well away from his sort.” - Mercy

 

It will cause a scandal that someone in the Envoy's entourage is responsible for murdering an innocent Braavosi girl. Arya will have made it very obvious, especially the way she publicly attached herself to him. 

Arya herself clearly makes the connection at the end of the chapter. "This will cause trouble for the envoy and the Sealord". What kind of trouble? 

Having played Shae or another common whore, Mercy woke up expecting to be murdered that day as well as being raped. If the murder part is not referencing the character she plays in the The Bloody Hand (she only gets raped in the play) then when/how does she get murdered?

 

 

[Damon_Tor]

On 5/5/2020 at 10:44 AM, King Adrian Storm said:

My prediction for where Arya's storyline will go:

We've seen the pre released chapter for Arya is called Mercy. I think this could have a bigger meaning going forward for Arya. In Twow I predict Arya will get a mission that brings her to Westeros. I don't know what name it will be, but it'll be somewhere around the twins. At this time in the story I think lady stoneheart will have a red wedding 2.0. When it's finished, Arya will come across LS, and they will have some sort of reunion. Once Catelyn finally gets her revenge, and sees that her children are alive Arya will put her out of her misery, and kill her as a mercy. This will be really hard on Arya. Then, in the final book Arya might join her wolfpack and fight the Others. The ending to her arc imo will be her finding Cersei, and having the chance to kill her. Just before she does, she will be reminded of Lady Stoneheart, A broken woman who is devestated by the loss of her children. I think this will cause Arya to have mercy on Cersei, and walk away from her revenge killings. And in the end she will return to Winterfell.

To figure out Arya's future, we've got to figure out what the Faceless Men are up to.

Why is "Jaquen Hagar" in Westeros, specifically in the Red Keep's dungeon? I'm operating on the assumption he was exactly where he wanted to be, as we have no reason to believe otherwise. As such, it seems likely his goal was to travel North and join the Night's Watch. But why? We're later shown that full face-shifting abilities like his are very rare, something only a very advanced member of their cult can achieve, so what target North of the Wall is so dangerous they had to send one of their best, who has information-gather abilities which require establishing an identity half a continent away? There's only one who fits this description, and that would be Bloodraven.

It's not difficult to guess at a reason the Faceless Men would want Bloodraven dead. His continued life-beyond-life could easily be seen as an affront to nature: the Many Faced God has been cheated, and all men must die. Or maybe there's more to it. Maybe they're taking sides int he Great War (not that it's entirely clear what side Bloodraven is on, but that's another matter) Maybe they were paid to kill Bloodraven decades ago by Bittersteel and have been trying ever since. We don't have anything concrete here, but none of the speculation requires much of a stretch.

So what changed? Bloodraven changed: Bloodraven took an apprentice. It isn't clear exactly when or how "Hagar" knew this had happened, but when it did clearly his plan had to change. Bloodraven had taken on a powerful psychic, Brandon Stark, to be his heir, and the Faceless Man no longer felt up to the task, but the Many Faced God had given him a gift, another powerful psychic of that same bloodline. Leaving for Oldtown for unknown purposes, the Faceless Man sent Arya off to Braavos to be indoctrinated into his order.

So her purpose then, as far as the Faceless Men are concerned, would be to kill Bloodraven, who by the conclusion of the story will be indistinguishable from Bran in one way or another. Will she do it? Will she who was once Arya kill the thing that was once Bran?

[Roswell]

On 5/5/2020 at 1:44 PM, King Adrian Storm said:

My prediction for where Arya's storyline will go:

We've seen the pre released chapter for Arya is called Mercy. I think this could have a bigger meaning going forward for Arya. In Twow I predict Arya will get a mission that brings her to Westeros. I don't know what name it will be, but it'll be somewhere around the twins. At this time in the story I think lady stoneheart will have a red wedding 2.0. When it's finished, Arya will come across LS, and they will have some sort of reunion. Once Catelyn finally gets her revenge, and sees that her children are alive Arya will put her out of her misery, and kill her as a mercy. This will be really hard on Arya. Then, in the final book Arya might join her wolfpack and fight the Others. The ending to her arc imo will be her finding Cersei, and having the chance to kill her. Just before she does, she will be reminded of Lady Stoneheart, A broken woman who is devestated by the loss of her children. I think this will cause Arya to have mercy on Cersei, and walk away from her revenge killings. And in the end she will return to Winterfell.

Arya crossed the line in killing that man.  It was a hit for personal reasons.  The faceless men are not welcoming her back.  There is nothing left for Arya and Lady Stoneheart except hate and revenge.  My prediction for Arya is very, very different from yours.  She is not getting any kinder.  Her development is going in the opposite the direction of what you predicted.  She will continue to get mentally sicker and what little bit of morality she has left will disappear until she is nothing more than a savage little beast.