What if Tywin stayed loyal to Aerys?

[EccentricHorse11]

Imagine an alternate universe where Jaime does not join the kingsgaurd, Rhaegar marrys Cersei instead of Elia but still elopes with Lyanna, and therefore Tywin remains hand of the king. Would Robert still win the Rebellion? 

[frenin]

No. Sheer numbers. Ofc that strategy and the such may turn the odds but long story short, he would've lost.

[EccentricHorse11]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

No. Sheer numbers. Ofc that strategy and the such may turn the odds but long story short, he would've lost.

But where exactly do you think Robert would be defeated? At the stoney sept as JonCon thought? Maybe his extra troops would turn the tide at the Trident? Or maybe his army would have stopped Robb from joining the Stark and Arryn forces? Or maybe he would attack the Riverlands like he did the Wot5K?

[frenin]

4 minutes ago, EccentricHorse11 said:

But where exactly do you think Robert would be defeated? At the stoney sept as JonCon thought? Maybe his extra troops would turn the tide at the Trident? Or maybe his army would have stopped Robb from joining the Stark and Arryn forces? Or maybe he would attack the Riverlands like he did the Wot5K?

I don't know since there is no reason to think that things would play out the same if Tywin was in the loyalist side from the beginning.

[The Merling King]

6 hours ago, frenin said:

No. Sheer numbers. Ofc that strategy and the such may turn the odds but long story short, he would've lost.

If Tywin was fully supporting Aerys for whatever reason, Mace Tyrell would probably be doing more then camping out and having a BBQ at Storms End?

[frenin]

3 minutes ago, The Merling King said:

If Tywin was fully supporting Aerys for whatever reason, Mace Tyrell would probably be doing more then camping out and having a BBQ at Storms End?

Hmmm why?? He was besieging Storm's End.

[Arthur Peres]

If Tywin had the marriage and Jaime, Doran would not be on the loyalist camp. He probably would stay out of it as he already was and only moved once forced as his daughter was hostage of a mad man. The number of royalists would not raise that significant, the only difference is leadership, and I have serious doubts that Tywin is capable of putting down Robert

[The hairy bear]

The main question in this scenario is how much it would affect Tywin's pride the fact that Rhaegar publicly eloped with another woman while being married to a Lannister. Given his immense ego and his traumatic past experiences with his father's mistresses, I'd say that a lot.

If so, I could imagine him staying out of the conflict, or only giving the Aerys a very half-hearted support.

[The Merling King]

5 hours ago, frenin said:

Hmmm why?? He was besieging Storm's End.

Just speculating that if Tywin committed his full force for whatever reason, then Mace would be a little more proactive in the war.

[frenin]

6 minutes ago, The Merling King said:

Just speculating that if Tywin committed his full force for whatever reason, then Mace would be a little more proactive in the war.

He was proactive in the war, sieges are essential in medieval warfare and the fall o Storm¡s End would mean Robert's doom as it was Robb's.

[EccentricHorse11]

7 hours ago, frenin said:

He was proactive in the war, sieges are essential in medieval warfare and the fall o Storm¡s End would mean Robert's doom as it was Robb's.

But he probably did not need to commit such a large force just to besiege Storm's End. I mean, he committed the entire Redwyne fleet and a good portion of the Reach Army when in fact that probably was way too much. Also he kept Randyl Tarly beside him and thus wasted an excellent commander. So maybe Tywin would have called him out on his cowardice and told him to get his flowery rear into somewhere where there is actually some use for the enormous army and commander.

[EccentricHorse11]

10 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

The main question in this scenario is how much it would affect Tywin's pride the fact that Rhaegar publicly eloped with another woman while being married to a Lannister. Given his immense ego and his traumatic past experiences with his father's mistresses, I'd say that a lot.

If so, I could imagine him staying out of the conflict, or only giving the Aerys a very half-hearted support.

This is also something to consider. Also Tywin would not appreciate most of Aerys's mad choices and would probably give him some good advice which of course Aerys is going to see as defiance and probably end up alienating Tywin. 

[Bernie Mac]

11 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

The main question in this scenario is how much it would affect Tywin's pride the fact that Rhaegar publicly eloped with another woman while being married to a Lannister. Given his immense ego and his traumatic past experiences with his father's mistresses, I'd say that a lot.

If so, I could imagine him staying out of the conflict, or only giving the Aerys a very half-hearted support.

'Traumatic past experiences'? Is this language not a little hyperbolic?

Tywin is not going to risk the dynasty that will see his grandchildren crowned get toppled. In a scenario where is still Hand, effectively co-ruler, and stands to see his blood sit on the throne he is going to be able to get over what Rhaegar did just like he was still able to serve Aerys as Hand after he was inappropriate on multiple occasions towards his wife.

 

9 hours ago, The Merling King said:

Just speculating that if Tywin committed his full force for whatever reason, then Mace would be a little more proactive in the war.

I think Mace was just following orders. He sent men to Rhagear, but he was tasked with taking Robert's capital. If that fell, along with his younger brothers, then the war may be as good as over (similar to how the fall of Winterfell did just that for Robb).

GRRM presents this as the case when he talks about the importance of Storm's End. His understanding of military strategy may be different to some of the readers, but reading what he says about the siege he does not seem to think it was Mace being deliberately ineffective.

 

19 hours ago, EccentricHorse11 said:

But where exactly do you think Robert would be defeated? At the stoney sept as JonCon thought? Maybe his extra troops would turn the tide at the Trident? Or maybe his army would have stopped Robb from joining the Stark and Arryn forces? Or maybe he would attack the Riverlands like he did the Wot5K?

For a start Hoster is going to have second thoughts about rebelling if the neighbouring realm was still loyal to Aerys. The royalists in the Riverlands would have support and we'd likely see the Freys join the war much sooner and for a different side.

The King and his Hands were weak to support the royalists in the Vale, Stormlands and Riverlands. Had they done so, this rebellion may have been put down much sooner.

It is actually possible that a more effective Hand would never have allowed Brandon to get so close to he King, or that Brandon's entourage, if not Brandon himself, would have been dissuaded from being so foolish with Tywin still in control.

[frenin]

2 hours ago, EccentricHorse11 said:

But he probably did not need to commit such a large force just to besiege Storm's End. I mean, he committed the entire Redwyne fleet and a good portion of the Reach Army when in fact that probably was way too much. Also he kept Randyl Tarly beside him and thus wasted an excellent commander. So maybe Tywin would have called him out on his cowardice and told him to get his flowery rear into somewhere where there is actually some use for the enormous army and commander.

He was not only besieging Storm's End, he was also occupying the Stormlands and cutting Robert from reinforcements there, besides part of his forces were with Rhaegar anyway, there is nothing coward or stupid about that.

[GoldenGail3]

Then Kings Landing wouldn’t had been raped and plundered.. Elia and her children would still live too, I guess.