Why is "obvious" bad?

[King Adrian Storm]

I see a lot of people  commenting on big theories, saying a certain thing can't be true because it's obvious. Why is a theory that makes sense for the story with heavy foreshadowing behind it a bad thing? Another thing to point out, many people wouldn't know about these "obvious" theories if it weren't for these forums and online discussions with people who have read the books 5 times, and analyzed every word. I know many of you will say, "because Grrm is unpredictable". Well, how do you know that what he will do with an "obvious" theory won't be unpredictable. I think Grrm is using these "obvious tropes" to trick us. He's done it countless times before.

Example 1. Jon Snow being R+L=J.  First of all, Many people didn't catch this on their first read, and after the first book, there isn't a ton of evidence still backing it up. Second of all, has anyone considered that Jon won't be this glorious hero who saves the world, and takes the iron throne. Maybe he never pursues his birthright. Maybe him finding out his parentage only causes more controversy with other characters.

Example 2. Jon or Dany being Azor Ahai. This one annoys me so much. It's 99% likely one of them or even both of them are azor ahai. For gods sake Dany has pretty much fulfilled all of the requirments. Would you rather have Grrm pull something out of no where and have Brienne be Azor Ahai. There is strong eveidence and foreshadowing for these 2 characters being azor ahai, and if he backtracks on that, fans would be even more upset. Most importantly, how do you know azor ahai is the "glorious hero" archetype. From what we've heard he sounds like a pretty bad person. This is how he lures you in thinking Jon will be this hero with a flaming sword coming to save the day, then he pulls a twist where Jon has to make a major sacrifice that will borderline be evil like killing Daenerys (This is just hypothetical).

Example 3. Tyrion or Jaime killing Cersei. I don't get why people would want anyone other than one of these two to kill Cersei.  All the time I see "oh no Jaime/Tyrion won't kill Cersei that's too obvious". Would you rather have Tommen do it? That sounds so anti climactic, and I doubt Tommen even has the balls to do something like that. Jaime or Tyrion killing Cersei is so satisfying, I honsetly wouldn't mind either one. That's what the story is building up to, and the prophecies are foreshadowing.

Let me know of more theories that people hate because they are too obvious. Remember it's not the twist itself, but how Grrm chooses to utilize it. 

 

[Vaith]

When a work is one of the most popular fantasy series out there and has had fans speculating over everything for almost 2 decades, almost everything has been "obvious," and almost every plausible possibility has been discussed at one point or another.

I really don't think R+L is even that obvious, for example. Most people do not pick it up on their first read and first learn about the theory on the internet. If someone who hadn't ever read the series started it without an internet connection and then read R + L happening in the story, most likely they would be surprised.

[King Adrian Storm]

7 hours ago, Vaith said:

When a work is one of the most popular fantasy series out there and has had fans speculating over everything for almost 2 decades, almost everything has been "obvious," and almost every plausible possibility has been discussed at one point or another.

I really don't think R+L is even that obvious, for example. Most people do not pick it up on their first read and first learn about the theory on the internet. If someone who hadn't ever read the series started it without an internet connection and then read R + L happening in the story, most likely they would be surprised.

Exactly. Plus, after the first book, George only muddles up the theory with conflicting evidence to make it less obvious. Many people think he's Ned and Ashara's daughter now. It's definitely not as obvious as people make it out to be. If you've never heard of the theory, then it's possible you won't even pick up on it at all.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I think the "it's too obvious" statement is tagged to a theory when people don't like it. I think it's mostly that, and a little bit of boredom. 

There was nothing obvious about RLJ. By the time I finished reading Ned's last chapter, I was certain Jon was half-Targaryen, but that's because I went back and re-read Ned's POVs while I was still reading the book. My friends did not even pick up on it, my husband years later picked up on Lyanna being the mother, but had no clue who the father was. 

I was genuinely confused when I saw the outlandish theories about Jon's parentage. He's Mance and Lyanna's, Brandon and Lyanna's, Ned and Lyanna's. But I've come to realize that this has a lot to do with those who hate Jon and hate the idea that he is Rhaegar's son.

[LynnS]

The too obvious label is really a result of GRRM telling the story of watching TV with his mother, who could always figure out what was going on and where the story was going.  He said that he wanted to write a book where nobody could do that and he's been largely successful, given the number of theories and conflicting opinions.  His wife Parris also said at one point, that George doesn't do obvious.  The proof on any of these theories will be in the pudding as they say.  Everyone is waiting to find out.

GRRM's big success has been to engage his readers; their intellect, their emotions and their imaginations.