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How much do fAegon and fArya matter?


Alyn Oakenfist

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52 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

It's nothing very concrete, but Jeyne is sort of placed at a point where Arya's and Sansa's identities meet - Ned's precious little girl.

Jeyne starts out totally as Sansa's shadow, liking what Sansa likes, saying what Sansa might say (horseface). At the slaughter at the Tower of the Hand, the Hound comes searching for Ned's daughters (presumably), but he finds Jeyne. And then LF makes her disappear.

And of course after that, Jeyne has to play Arya, while Sansa is playing Alayne. It's all very confusing. :blink:

But how does that relate to fArya being a "A might-have-been" for Sansa? 

"Ned's precious little girl" was said with only Arya in mind. How are the identities meeting when Jeyne is literally pretending to be Arya. Not everything Arya centered has to be related back to Sansa.  

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saying what Sansa might say (horseface). 

Might? Did say. 

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18 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Unless Dany finally comes to Westeros.

The pitch letter, the show, and basic narrative logic (unless all the remaining POV characters in Westeros flee to Essos) says as much.

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't know why he went to Meereen.

We know he's in the employ of the Yunkish. The obvious answer for his motivation is "pay".

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But if he lacked confidence in the Yunkish it is very odd that he went - after all, they are the guys paying the company, are they not? In fact, there is no reason to believe he ever thought they could lose after they made short work out of Astapor

The relatively easy sack of Astapor was a good reason to start working for them. The regime there was quite shaky.

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Dany had essentially nothing to offer to counter that but her Unsullied, a couple of freedmen, and a single sellsword company.

Dany had already sacked/conquered three cities, and it's typically easier to be on the defensive behind walls. The Unsullied are reknowned fighters, certainly not to be shrugged off.

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What's indicated is that he didn't went there to defeat Daenerys but to make a deal with her.

We hear that he's keeping "all roads open" so that regardless of the outcome he can be on the winning side. And the fickleness of mercenary companies is well known, indeed when discussing the plan they mention how others had defected to her.

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Because he has no reason to believe Daenerys Targaryen is going to help him with that.

He can't be sure his demand will be accepted, but he might as well start with what he wants the most. Quentyn and Barristan were willing to agree to Pentos without Aegon being a factor.

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Illyrio Mopatis is a public figure, his marriage to a Lysene whore (if that happened) would be public knowledge, as would that woman's pregnacy and possibly even the birth of a child. Also, Illyrio's own past would be something his colleagues and rivals would have uncovered, too.

Information that is publicly known in Pentos could easily get back to Westeros, and talk of Aegon Targaryen would be a very big deal. If the crown hear about him, and not through Varys, that would immediately call into question how well he's doing his job.

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But this is clearly possible and it is rather likely that the whole point of the Windblown and the Tattered Prince is to provide Dany and her people with crucial information about Illyrio.

He's already gotten an agreement for Pentos without any such information. His purpose seems to be to drag her or her forces to Pentos.

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if Maelys had sisters, daughters, cousins, etc. the men participating in the War of the Ninepenny Kings would know stuff about that

The war took place on the Stepstones, and I don't think they had their womenfolk around. Merely by being from another generation Barristan might know some more names from the past, but participating in such fighting doesn't seem all that likely to result in knowledge about the female line.

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Especially in addition to Tyrion's knowledge about the gang and the fact that Illyrio is apparently cozy enough with the Golden Company to convince them to break contracts and invade Westeros on behalf of their Aegon.

All of that would have been the case in the scenario where the GC were able to reach Meereen as they planned and attempt to recruit Daenerys and her dragons in a marriage alliance with Aegon. Illyrio knew Barristan was with Dany, since he'd sent him to her in the first place.

9 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

With Aegon, same thing. His plot takes Arianne out of Dorne. Him taking Storm's End cripples Stannis and his kingly claim in the south.

Stannis had already been defeated in the south. His plot is up north now.

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14 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Stannis had already been defeated in the south. His plot is up north now.

You should tell him that. He may have been defeated in the south, but he hasn't given up on becoming king. He's negotiating with the Iron Bank for loans and promises to settle Robert's debts once he ascends.

Losing Storm's End to Aegon is meaningful. He goes north expecting to lose Dragonstone, but not Storm's End.

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5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We know he's in the employ of the Yunkish. The obvious answer for his motivation is "pay".

Yeah, the obvious superficial answer for people who cannot read between the lines.

5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The relatively easy sack of Astapor was a good reason to start working for them. The regime there was quite shaky.

You don't seem to be getting things straight. The Windblown were there sacking Astapor. They couldn't have known how easy it was when they were signing up back in Volantis, could they?

5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Dany had already sacked/conquered three cities, and it's typically easier to be on the defensive behind walls. The Unsullied are reknowned fighters, certainly not to be shrugged off.

I guess that's also the reason why Ben Plumm, another old and cautious sellsword captain decided to defect to the Yunkish allies, right?

5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We hear that he's keeping "all roads open" so that regardless of the outcome he can be on the winning side. And the fickleness of mercenary companies is well known, indeed when discussing the plan they mention how others had defected to her.

That is nothing he or Pretty Maris say. Where are you getting this?

5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He can't be sure his demand will be accepted, but he might as well start with what he wants the most. Quentyn and Barristan were willing to agree to Pentos without Aegon being a factor.

Quentyn and Barristan aren't Daenerys Targaryen ... and Barristan Selmy never spoke to the Tattered Prince in the books I'm reading.

5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Information that is publicly known in Pentos could easily get back to Westeros, and talk of Aegon Targaryen would be a very big deal. If the crown hear about him, and not through Varys, that would immediately call into question how well he's doing his job.

You are not making sense. Knowledge about Illyrio Mopatis' second marriage and his child mean nothing if not connected to this Aegon lad. Are you trying to annoy me or don't you understand the topic we are discussing?

What is clearly not known publicly is that Illyrio Mopatis is financing the Aegon boy. That is insider knowledge only the Golden Company and the Aegon gang has.

5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He's already gotten an agreement for Pentos without any such information. His purpose seems to be to drag her or her forces to Pentos.

Not from Daenerys. And not yet from Barristan Selmy himself. He just had some Dornishmen made some promises ... which most likely were supposed to be empty promises, anyway. Tatters is an old guy and Selmy is not going to march the forces of his queen to Pentos without her approval ... nor could he force Dany's loyalists to march there if they don't want to.

5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The war took place on the Stepstones, and I don't think they had their womenfolk around. Merely by being from another generation Barristan might know some more names from the past, but participating in such fighting doesn't seem all that likely to result in knowledge about the female line.

I don't care what you think about where the female Blackfyres were. That isn't the point. The point is that the Targaryens would have kept more than just an eye on the Blackfyres back when they still were a threat. Robert also didn't forget that Daenerys Targaryen still existed, did he? The people fighting in the war would have known more about Maelys than just that he was an enemy.

5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

All of that would have been the case in the scenario where the GC were able to reach Meereen as they planned and attempt to recruit Daenerys and her dragons in a marriage alliance with Aegon. Illyrio knew Barristan was with Dany, since he'd sent him to her in the first place.

No, crucial information about Varys and Illyrio would be lacking in this scenario. Also the fact that Tyrion as Jon's little puppet wouldn't have been able to gain Dany's trust and advise her against an Aegon deal. Not to mention that Aegon's parentage would be completely irrelevant if he had married Daenerys - because then they would have strengthened each other rather than fighting against one another.

And Aegon and company never intended to go to Meereen. That was never the plan. The plan was to wait for Dany in Volantis. It was briefly considered to go to Slaver's Bay but that was never 'the plan'.

 

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2 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

You should tell him that. He may have been defeated in the south, but he hasn't given up on becoming king. He's negotiating with the Iron Bank for loans and promises to settle Robert's debts once he ascends.

Losing Storm's End to Aegon is meaningful. He goes north expecting to lose Dragonstone, but not Storm's End.

It's important to Stannis the character, but not that important to the story.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, the obvious superficial answer for people who cannot read between the lines.

I eagerly await discovery of the REAL reason for the Second Sons or Company of the Cat.

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You don't seem to be getting things straight. The Windblown were there sacking Astapor. They couldn't have known how easy it was when they were signing up back in Volantis, could they?

New regimes are shakier than ones that have been around a long time, which is why Cleon was able to take over from the government Dany left in the first place. Cleon didn't have time to fully train his "new Unsullied", which is why he'd already been beaten at the Horns of Hazzat.

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I guess that's also the reason why Ben Plumm, another old and cautious sellsword captain decided to defect to the Yunkish allies, right?

Plumm switches back and forth depending on which way the wind is blowing at the moment, even proclaiming that a sellsword's word is worthless. Tatters is more subtle, having feet in both camps simultaneously (which is how he was able to kill Gorzhak by surprise).

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That is nothing he or Pretty Maris say. Where are you getting this?

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"Let us be frank," said Denzo D'han, the warrior bard. "The Yunkai'i do not inspire confidence. Whatever the outcome of this war, the Windblown should share in the spoils of victory. Our prince is wise to keep all roads open."
"Meris will command you," said the Tattered Prince. "She knows my mind in this … and Daenerys Targaryen may be more accepting of another woman."

 

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and Barristan Selmy never spoke to the Tattered Prince in the books I'm reading.

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"I mean to send them back to the Tattered Prince. And you with them. You will be two amongst thousands. Your presence in the Yunkish camps should pass unnoticed. I want you to deliver a message to the Tattered Prince. Tell him that I sent you, that I speak with the queen's voice. Tell him that we'll pay his price if he delivers us our hostages, unharmed and whole."

 

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You are not making sense. Knowledge about Illyrio Mopatis' second marriage and his child mean nothing if not connected to this Aegon lad. Are you trying to annoy me or don't you understand the topic we are discussing?

Illyrio's marriage is public knowledge, and not something he tries to keep secret. Aegon is a secret, which is why the people of Pentos as well as Tatters are unlikely to know.

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What is clearly not known publicly is that Illyrio Mopatis is financing the Aegon boy.

Aegon's existence isn't known publicly. But in the scenario where he reached Daenerys, he would hardly have to keep secret that Illyrio was supporting him. Daenerys remembers him as someone that took her and Viserys in, while Jorah (whom she has rejected) was the one who was badmouthing him (and every other man), so having Illyrio's backing would be helpful in Aegon gaining Daenerys' trust.

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And not yet from Barristan Selmy himself.

Barristan conditionally agreed to the price. He could be lying, although he's not usually a liar.

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Selmy is not going to march the forces of his queen to Pentos without her approval ... nor could he force Dany's loyalists to march there if they don't want to.

Selmy acts with the Queen's voice in her absence.

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Robert also didn't forget that Daenerys Targaryen still existed, did he?

No. Renly also seems to have been aware of her existence, and he was too young to participate in any fighting. I think most westerosi nobles who were around at the time would have heard of her, regardless of their participation in the war.

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No, crucial information about Varys and Illyrio would be lacking in this scenario.

What crucial information? Tatters certainly never told any of his feigned deserters to even indicate they had such information.

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Not to mention that Aegon's parentage would be completely irrelevant if he had married Daenerys - because then they would have strengthened each other rather than fighting against one another.

He'd be Queen's consort instead of King, and I think that matters a lot to his backers.

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2 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The pitch letter, the show, and basic narrative logic (unless all the remaining POV characters in Westeros flee to Essos) says as much.

We know he's in the employ of the Yunkish. The obvious answer for his motivation is "pay".

The relatively easy sack of Astapor was a good reason to start working for them. The regime there was quite shaky.

Dany had already sacked/conquered three cities, and it's typically easier to be on the defensive behind walls. The Unsullied are reknowned fighters, certainly not to be shrugged off.

We hear that he's keeping "all roads open" so that regardless of the outcome he can be on the winning side. And the fickleness of mercenary companies is well known, indeed when discussing the plan they mention how others had defected to her.

He can't be sure his demand will be accepted, but he might as well start with what he wants the most. Quentyn and Barristan were willing to agree to Pentos without Aegon being a factor.

Information that is publicly known in Pentos could easily get back to Westeros, and talk of Aegon Targaryen would be a very big deal. If the crown hear about him, and not through Varys, that would immediately call into question how well he's doing his job.

He's already gotten an agreement for Pentos without any such information. His purpose seems to be to drag her or her forces to Pentos.

The war took place on the Stepstones, and I don't think they had their womenfolk around. Merely by being from another generation Barristan might know some more names from the past, but participating in such fighting doesn't seem all that likely to result in knowledge about the female line.

All of that would have been the case in the scenario where the GC were able to reach Meereen as they planned and attempt to recruit Daenerys and her dragons in a marriage alliance with Aegon. Illyrio knew Barristan was with Dany, since he'd sent him to her in the first place.

Stannis had already been defeated in the south. His plot is up north now.

1. An awful lot has changed since the "pitch letter" in 1993. GRRM's gardening style can absolutely end up with him deciding Dany stays and rules Essos instead. Without doing anything but upsetting fans who want to insist all that "foreshadowing" meant Dany HAD TO come to Westeros. 

2. The Show means literally ZERO to what happens in the Books. 

3. A fan's idea of "basic narrative logic" would have resulted in a much different ADWD than what we got. Same with all the previous books. If you used "basic narrative logic" to predict what happened in the next book, George undoubtedly broke your ankles on his way to a slam dunk. You can look at all the old internet posts you want, what you will find is a fandom that has consistently come up with theories that aren't even in the same solar system as what actually happened in the next book.

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10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I eagerly await discovery of the REAL reason for the Second Sons or Company of the Cat.

LOL, there is nothing between the lines to find there. You are trying to downplay subtle clues that are there in the text. There is a reason why the Tattered Prince lacks a name (you know, he could be a man named MOPATIS) and why he is from Pentos of all places.

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

New regimes are shakier than ones that have been around a long time, which is why Cleon was able to take over from the government Dany left in the first place. Cleon didn't have time to fully train his "new Unsullied", which is why he'd already been beaten at the Horns of Hazzat.

That is a non argument. The Windblown couldn't have known that Daenerys Targaryen wouldn't march against Yunkai as soon as they learned the Yunkai'i were attacking Astapor. Cleon asked for her help, she could have granted it. She could even have had effective dragonriders by the time of this battle.

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Plumm switches back and forth depending on which way the wind is blowing at the moment, even proclaiming that a sellsword's word is worthless. Tatters is more subtle, having feet in both camps simultaneously (which is how he was able to kill Gorzhak by surprise).

Which is a stupid thing for Tatters to do. The Yunkai'i were paying him, and he had no clue about the Ironborn coming. Why would he want to get in the good graces of Daenerys Targaryen? Overall, this doesn't make any sense.

The crucial thing there is that Pretty Meris tried to approach Dany directly - which never happened. We have no idea what her master wanted to tell her directly. All we know is what Meris told Selmy and others who she tried to convince that she came with a message from Tatters - which didn't work because Quentyn - who didn't know anything about her true mission - spoiled it by telling them that they were supposed to infiltrate Meereen - which was the ploy Tatters used to get Meris close to Dany. He has a secret agenda he had to conceal from the Yunkai'i and the other sellsword companies.

You also seem to be confused about what happened - Quentyn and his gang made a deal with Tatters after Dany was missing and believed dead. He could no longer talk to Dany but tried to do his best with those goons who he didn't really trust, either, considering they betrayed him before. Selmy has no idea what the man actually wants - he is operating under the information Quentyn's people gave him.

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Illyrio's marriage is public knowledge, and not something he tries to keep secret. Aegon is a secret, which is why the people of Pentos as well as Tatters are unlikely to know.

It may be public knowledge if it happened - for which we have, at this point, only Illyrio's word. If it were public knowledge there is no reason to believe Illyrio could or would have kept Aegon's birth and existence a secret if the boy had originally be raised as his son. The Aegon plan as it were only got into gear when the boy was given to Connington. Tyrion got fine clothes, indicating Aegon wasn't hidden away in some secret part of the manse, but was part of Illyrio's household in an official capacity.

There is no need to keep the existence of your child a secret if you can just pretend he died or was sent away to be raised someplace else when you start to implement the Aegon plan.

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Aegon's existence isn't known publicly. But in the scenario where he reached Daenerys, he would hardly have to keep secret that Illyrio was supporting him. Daenerys remembers him as someone that took her and Viserys in, while Jorah (whom she has rejected) was the one who was badmouthing him (and every other man), so having Illyrio's backing would be helpful in Aegon gaining Daenerys' trust.

Again, you don't seem to understand. If Dany shows up like a ragged beggar at Volantis for Aegon to offer her support and soldiers then nobody would ask him twice about his parentage and background. If Dany was effectively forced to marry him because she was in desperate need of support and if it was clear they had the same goal and would work together there wouldn't be any issue. It would work in a such a scenario to also reveal that Illyrio and Varys hid away Aegon to protect him until the time was right ... just as Dany herself concluded it was wise of Doran Martell to keep the knowledge about the marriage pact a secret even from Viserys III himself.

But if some scheming dwarf reveals to Selmy and later Dany that Jon Connington and Illyrio Mopatis are backing some other alleged Targaryen they never cared to tell anything about to Viserys III or Daenerys who now also decided to invade Westeros without Dany then this is going to raise quite a few eyebrows. And if that is accompanied by knowledge/information that Illyrio may not have been all that Targaryen-friendly to begin with, having some shadowy connections to the Blackfyres, etc. then this is going to ensure that Dany and her people won't jump on the chance to see Aegon as Dany's potential nephew and future husband but rather as a rival pretender and possible impostor.

And without good information about Varys/Illyrio from another source they are not likely to reach that conclusion. Illyrio gave Dany the dragon eggs, Illyrio sent Barristan to Dany and wanted to get her back to Pentos to marry Aegon there. Dany ruined all that by going to Slaver's Bay. She and her people would realize that - and would not really blame Aegon and his people from jumping on the chance to invade while Westeros was ripe for an invasion. And without Dany seeing Aegon's invasion as something hostile towards herself there is not likely going to be a Second Dance of the Dragons.

In fact, considering the fact that the author constantly hammers home the fact that Dany was never in Westeros and that she is not exactly eager to get there it would be difficult to come up with a reason why she should follow Aegon at all. She is building her own empire in Essos with her dragons. Why wouldn't she leave it to Aegon to avenge their family? She took up that burden from her brother after his death because nobody else was left ... or so she thought.

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Barristan conditionally agreed to the price. He could be lying, although he's not usually a liar.

Selmy acts with the Queen's voice in her absence.

That's what he says - but Dany never named him her Hand. She is not bound by any deal he is making in her name because he staged a coup and installed himself as the new head of her government.

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

No. Renly also seems to have been aware of her existence, and he was too young to participate in any fighting. I think most westerosi nobles who were around at the time would have heard of her, regardless of their participation in the war.

Just as anyone growing up during the reign of Aegon V would have known about Daemon III Blackfyre and his brothers, uncles, cousins, and their families.

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

What crucial information? Tatters certainly never told any of his feigned deserters to even indicate they had such information.

The man tried to send one of his most trusted people directly to Dany. They never spoke, so we don't know what Meris would have told her. And, you know, it isn't necessary that Tatters already has a plan to tell Dany a lot about Aegon ... the point is he might know stuff which might conveniently add crucial pieces to the puzzle when Aegon is eventually going to be discussed by Dany's people. He may not know anything about the Aegon plan, but about Illyrio and Varys and their history. If he does then this could be very crucial information indeed. Tyrion suspects that Aegon might not be Rhaegar's son but he has no proof and really no way to connect Varys or Illyrio to the Blackfyres directly. He cannot dismiss the possibility that Connington was the key link to the Golden Company - after all, the man served with them before he took Aegon in.

Dany is not likely to dismiss Aegon as an impostor and Illyrio as a bad friend just on the basis of the delusions of Tywin Lannister's kinslaying and kingslaying dwarf son.

10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He'd be Queen's consort instead of King, and I think that matters a lot to his backers.

Obviously it didn't since that was the plan, no? There is no indication Aegon was supposed to be the king and Dany merely his queen consort. They would have ruled together, with Dany being the Aegon the Conqueror in their deal, and Aegon perhaps being a Visenya or Rhaenys, not the other way around.

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12 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

It's important to Stannis the character, but not that important to the story.

Of course it's important to the story. It's important to Stannis because he loses his last foothold in the south and it's important to Aegon. Storm's End has never been taken. Storm's End is where Jaehaerys raised his banner. 

To each their own, I guess.

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On 5/11/2020 at 7:10 AM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

I think Dany will claim him to be fake but she will have dead nothing as proof of it, and will be seen as an usurper and kinslayer when she kills him. Also he has already taken Storm's End and is preparing to fight Mace at Agincourt, after which Tarly will probably defect and Arianne will bring Dorne in so he should have no problem taking KL, and bringing peace at last. That is until Dany comes knocking.

She will never be seen as a usurper because her claim and her identity are proven by the dragons.  Her claim is understood to be very strong.  Those who want Aegon will not like it but they cannot really label her as a usurper because she can make a great argument for why she should be at the front of the line of succession.  No Westerosi Targaryen has ever hatched dragon eggs.   Look, people were not hating on Renly for attempting to jump ahead of Stannis in the line of the Baratheon succession.  Stannis got the worse end of public opinion even though he was technically ahead of Renly.  It would not be the first time the nobility has competed for the High Seat of their house.  

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1 hour ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

She will never be seen as a usurper because her claim and her identity are proven by the dragons.  Her claim is understood to be very strong.  Those who want Aegon will not like it but they cannot really label her as a usurper because she can make a great argument for why she should be at the front of the line of succession.  No Westerosi Targaryen has ever hatched dragon eggs.   Look, people were not hating on Renly for attempting to jump ahead of Stannis in the line of the Baratheon succession.  Stannis got the worse end of public opinion even though he was technically ahead of Renly.  It would not be the first time the nobility has competed for the High Seat of their house.

Here's the thing, though, while we might have strong doubts regarding Aegon's identity, the Westerosi have serious proof that he is who he claims he is. Jon Conn's identity is undeniable, and him wielding Blackfyre will further add to this. And if he is true he is clearly higher on the succession list. Plus Aegon will already be crowned when Dany kills him, so yeah she will be deffo seen as an usurper.

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23 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

the Westerosi have serious proof that he is who he claims he is.

No, they don't, that's why right now no one really believes he is really Rhaegar's heir.

 

24 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Jon Conn's identity is undeniable,

Which not only adds suspicions but no one really cares about that.

 

25 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

and him wielding Blackfyre will further add to this

Every noble knows that the sword of the kings has not been in House Targ possesion since Aegon 4, the last owners of the swords were... the Blackfyres, not Rhaegar or Aerys.

 

Overall people doubts a lot of Young G,  his sourcy of legitimacy were actually Dany and dragons, he has neither.

 

30 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Plus Aegon will already be crowned when Dany kills him, so yeah she will be deffo seen as an usurper.

That is true however.

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2 hours ago, frenin said:
2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Jon Conn's identity is undeniable,

Which not only adds suspicions but no one really cares about that.

just to add: because JonCon if asked would actually have to admit, that he hasn't seen the boy when he was a baby, nor was he involved in the "kidnapping".

2 hours ago, frenin said:
2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

and him wielding Blackfyre will further add to this

Every noble knows that the sword of the kings has not been in House Targ possesion since Aegon 4, the last owners of the swords were... the Blackfyres, not Rhaegar or Aerys.

And the sword still is missing, isn't it?

If the sword would be in the possession of the Golden Company, it wouldn't prove anything for Aegon, as you say. If it however somehow appeared on Dany's side, it would tear the GC apart.

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22 hours ago, a black swan said:

But how does that relate to fArya being a "A might-have-been" for Sansa? 

"Ned's precious little girl" was said with only Arya in mind. How are the identities meeting when Jeyne is literally pretending to be Arya. Not everything Arya centered has to be related back to Sansa

lol, not everything is a battle between superfans - I genuinely have been interested in character parallels for a long, long time.

You're not going to like the rest of it either. As I see it, the theories of Jonsa and Jonarya are so persistent because the hints are in fact there. But neither relationship makes sense to the majority of fans, so I think the purpose is to sketch around Jon the image of the first Aegon and his sisters. Like this:

The Bastard of Winterfell marries Ned's precious little girl.

Sansa is of course Ned's precious girl as much as Arya is. But if you won't accept Jeyne as a proxy, there's still Sansa's passion for Waymar (a boy from a noble family who had no place for him and sent him to the Wall, a green commander promoted beyond his experience, a boy with some resemblance to Jon.).

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I just want to point out: in your video you say that GOT died in the beginning of S05.

Imo, big mistakes that mortally wounded the show happened from season 1.

The removal os Jayne Pool doomed the Wintefell storyline, the Removal of the Tyrell Brothers destoryed the might of the house which ruined thebalance of powers in Westeros completely, forcing the writers to make the Starks, Lannisters and Targaryens regenerate their strengths like they had a spawning area, the removal of House of The Undying profecies killed the excellnt foreshadowing of the show, the removal of Lady Stonehard ruined Brienne and Jaimie after Season 5, the removal of Tysha ruined Tyrion as a character after season 5, the removal of fAegon destorye dthe Martell storyline but also the whole sotry progress and the delaying of Euron made it impossible to introduce him later efficiently. I am not refering to anything after season 5 because almost everything is a mess after that point.

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1 hour ago, Morte said:

just to add: because JonCon if asked would actually have to admit, that he hasn't seen the boy when he was a baby, nor was he involved in the "kidnapping"

True.

 

 

1 hour ago, Morte said:

And the sword still is missing, isn't it?

If the sword would be in the possession of the Golden Company, it wouldn't prove anything for Aegon, as you say. If it however somehow appeared on Dany's side, it would tear the GC apart.

I don't really know it's going to be that decisive for anyone but no one doubts Dany...

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I think Aegon will prove to be a fantastic link that ties the Blackfyre history to the main series. Whether it's Varys, Illyrio, or Young Griff himself, I fully expect some kind of "secret Black Dragon" revelation to come from their camp. 

While many readers might consider Young Aegon too late an addition to be any sort of a real "endgame player", we should consider the fact that the Blackfyre Rebellions have been a part of the overall lore of the series for many years, with the Tales of Dunk and Egg in particular being both Blackfyre heavy as well as some of the most beloved material amongst the fandom. I think the potential reveal of Aegon and the Golden Company, as well as Varys and Illyrio, having a more Blackfyre heavy sentiment/heritage could give us readers a tonne of entertaining possibilities to play with, as well as helping to solve a few of the mysteries associated with Daemon I, Bittersteel, Maelys and Co. 

Aegon's connection to Dorne should not be discounted either. As the son of Elia, who the beloved Red Viper died trying to avenge, as well as a dragon blooded descendent of the first Daenarys, there is a good chance the "Lost Dragon" will have most of the spears of Dorne on his side - which brings with it a way to help further the various Martell agendas and plotlines. 

 

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21 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

1. An awful lot has changed since the "pitch letter" in 1993. GRRM's gardening style can absolutely end up with him deciding Dany stays and rules Essos instead. Without doing anything but upsetting fans who want to insist all that "foreshadowing" meant Dany HAD TO come to Westeros.

It's not just in the pitch letter. In the absence of the five-year gap, Dany seems like she would have gone to Westeros. Dorne was set to play a larger part after Storm of Swords, and Dany would have been available to ally with them by that point if she still left Meereen in her first chapter, but instead we got Young Griff. His gardening style meant that it took three books rather than one for Catelyn and Robb to die, and they died under different circumstances, but it still happened at roughly the climax of his first "act", prior to the middle act of A Dance With Dragons. And Tyrion turned against his family for a different reason than because he was in love with a Stark girl, and he wound up going east rather than to the Wall, but the basic idea is still there.

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The Show means literally ZERO to what happens in the Books.

No, GRRM told them how the books will end and they incorporated things yet to come into the show. There will be differences, but it's certainly not "literally ZERO".

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A fan's idea of "basic narrative logic" would have resulted in a much different ADWD than what we got. Same with all the previous books. If you used "basic narrative logic" to predict what happened in the next book, George undoubtedly broke your ankles on his way to a slam dunk. You can look at all the old internet posts you want, what you will find is a fandom that has consistently come up with theories that aren't even in the same solar system as what actually happened in the next book.

So far he's made things more complicated, but he didn't ditch basic narrative logic. Even killing Ned Stark fits if he's the mentor figure for his POV offspring.

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, there is nothing between the lines to find there. You are trying to downplay subtle clues that are there in the text. There is a reason why the Tattered Prince lacks a name (you know, he could be a man named MOPATIS) and why he is from Pentos of all places.

"Bloodbeard" is also a nickname rather than a real name. Tatters' connection to Pentos will probably lead the plot back there as the story contracts.

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That is a non argument. The Windblown couldn't have known that Daenerys Targaryen wouldn't march against Yunkai as soon as they learned the Yunkai'i were attacking Astapor.

If she does march, Tatters can still try to play both sides if he thinks there's a serious risk of losing. If she doesn't, he gets an easy victory.

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Which is a stupid thing for Tatters to do. The Yunkai'i were paying him, and he had no clue about the Ironborn coming. Why would he want to get in the good graces of Daenerys Targaryen?

If the Yunkai lose, Dany might destroy them before they have a chance to pay him more. If they win, the Yunkai don't have to know he sent Meris with some feigned deserters to Dany. Meris could even betray Dany from within, just as the Windblown wound up doing to their allies outside Meereen.

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All we know is what Meris told Selmy and others who she tried to convince that she came with a message from Tatters - which didn't work because Quentyn - who didn't know anything about her true mission - spoiled it by telling them that they were supposed to infiltrate Meereen - which was the ploy Tatters used to get Meris close to Dany.

It did wind up working: Barristan agreed to the price.

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Selmy has no idea what the man actually wants - he is operating under the information Quentyn's people gave him.

If he wants more than Pentos, I'd be surprised, but how would that be relevant? Barristan had his message delivered to Tatters, and that seems to have been enough.

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If it were public knowledge there is no reason to believe Illyrio could or would have kept Aegon's birth and existence a secret if the boy had originally be raised as his son.

If that was public knowledge, it would be harder to explain away what happened to the kid.

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The Aegon plan as it were only got into gear when the boy was given to Connington. Tyrion got fine clothes, indicating Aegon wasn't hidden away in some secret part of the manse, but was part of Illyrio's household in an official capacity.

If Tatters has heard that while he was away a blue-haired mercenary and his son were at Illyrio's, I don't think that adds much.

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But if some scheming dwarf reveals to Selmy and later Dany that Jon Connington and Illyrio Mopatis are backing some other alleged Targaryen they never cared to tell anything about to Viserys III or Daenerys who now also decided to invade Westeros without Dany then this is going to raise quite a few eyebrows.

Dany knows that Illyrio tried to get her to come back to Pentos, and had tried to keep Viserys from leaving. Since you've acknowledged that she would find it understandable for Aegon to be kept secret, wouldn't it make sense to her that she would have had to come back when Illyrio was ready for the reveal in order to hear it first?

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And if that is accompanied by knowledge/information that Illyrio may not have been all that Targaryen-friendly to begin with, having some shadowy connections to the Blackfyres, etc.

The Golden Company are known to be connected to the Blackfyres, but the plan was for them to join up with Dany (and Viserys, earlier on). That wasn't considered some big problem for them.

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Just as anyone growing up during the reign of Aegon V would have known about Daemon III Blackfyre and his brothers, uncles, cousins, and their families.

Yeah, maybe not the whole family tree but probably some things, like his father Haegon and uncle Daemon II most obviously. Of course, Daemon III was from back when the Blackfyres were a bigger deal (they were at least able to invade Westeros by themselves) and their descent from the king was more recent.

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And, you know, it isn't necessary that Tatters already has a plan to tell Dany a lot about Aegon ... the point is he might know stuff which might conveniently add crucial pieces to the puzzle when Aegon is eventually going to be discussed by Dany's people. He may not know anything about the Aegon plan, but about Illyrio and Varys and their history. If he does then this could be very crucial information indeed.

How much leverage does he have if he just has a "piece" Meris was supposed to tell Dany, and not anything else that piece connects to? Tatters doesn't know Tyrion is on his way to add any info.

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Obviously it didn't since that was the plan, no? There is no indication Aegon was supposed to be the king and Dany merely his queen consort. They would have ruled together, with Dany being the Aegon the Conqueror in their deal, and Aegon perhaps being a Visenya or Rhaenys, not the other way around.

Aegon would be ahead of her by Targaryen rules of inheritance.

 

 

9 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Of course it's important to the story. It's important to Stannis because he loses his last foothold in the south and it's important to Aegon.

It's important to Aegon's story, since he might be able to go from there to KL. But Stannis already tried doing that and got soundly defeated. He wasn't going to launch another attack on King's Landing from there, at least not without a very long campaign that there isn't time for.

8 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

She will never be seen as a usurper because her claim and her identity are proven by the dragons.

Both sides in the Dance had dragons, but both were denounced as usurpers. Maegor had a dragon while Aegon the Uncrowned didn't, but many saw Maegor as illegitimate and a kinslayer.

6 hours ago, frenin said:

Which not only adds suspicions but no one really cares about that.

How so?

3 hours ago, Morte said:

just to add: because JonCon if asked would actually have to admit, that he hasn't seen the boy when he was a baby, nor was he involved in the "kidnapping".

I wouldn't put it past him to lie.

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1 minute ago, FictionIsntReal said:

How so?

Because no one really cares, no one doubts about JonCon yet people still believe Aegon fake. And what can JonCon prove anyway?? That a decade ago he was given a valyrian looking kid and people not suspected of being sneaky told them it was Rhaegar's heir...

It will be Aegon's actions what ultimately lead to people believe his tale.

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