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How much do fAegon and fArya matter?


Alyn Oakenfist

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9 hours ago, frenin said:
10 hours ago, Morte said:

If the sword would be in the possession of the Golden Company, it wouldn't prove anything for Aegon, as you say. If it however somehow appeared on Dany's side, it would tear the GC apart.

I don't really know it's going to be that decisive for anyone

Me neither. Just wanted to point out that the GC would indeed be the only one it could even be decisive for, if somehow another(?) Blackfyre would turn up with the sword on Dany's side, because it isn't even clear whether the boy is actually a dragon of any colour.

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13 hours ago, Springwatch said:

lol, not everything is a battle between superfans - I genuinely have been interested in character parallels for a long, long time.

You're not going to like the rest of it either. As I see it, the theories of Jonsa and Jonarya are so persistent because the hints are in fact there. But neither relationship makes sense to the majority of fans, so I think the purpose is to sketch around Jon the image of the first Aegon and his sisters. Like this:

The Bastard of Winterfell marries Ned's precious little girl.

Sansa is of course Ned's precious girl as much as Arya is. But if you won't accept Jeyne as a proxy, there's still Sansa's passion for Waymar (a boy from a noble family who had no place for him and sent him to the Wall, a green commander promoted beyond his experience, a boy with some resemblance to Jon.).

I don't understand what Jonrya/Jonsa has to do with it? The two aren't even comparable. A reach in so many ways.

I didn't mean to be rude or anything. 

The "Ned's precious little girl" line was said about Arya. If it's meant to have any deeper meaning, as you have kindly pointed out (which I would love to hear more about), then George has very specifically only said that line about Arya for a reason. 

Jeyne is very much an Arya proxy (as are Alys, Lyanna, Willow) in a more clear and obvious way than being a Sansa sycophant. I would think going forward, we'll see even more connections with the Jeyne/Arya especially if they end up meeting in Braavos. 

Jon being half-Stark/Targ - that would seem more likely to be the image portrayed. 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

How does it "add to suspicion"? And Randyll Tarly, who asserts Aegon to be a "feigned boy", repeatedly casts doubt on whether it really is Connington.

And even then they are making countermeasures to him, but no one really believes Aegon, from the Lannisters to the Martells. 

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

"Bloodbeard" is also a nickname rather than a real name. Tatters' connection to Pentos will probably lead the plot back there as the story contracts.

You are not making sense. Bloodbeard isn't a developed character with a bunch of sidekicks, unlike Tatters (who essentially has two nicknames).

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If she does march, Tatters can still try to play both sides if he thinks there's a serious risk of losing. If she doesn't, he gets an easy victory.

If the Yunkai lose, Dany might destroy them before they have a chance to pay him more. If they win, the Yunkai don't have to know he sent Meris with some feigned deserters to Dany. Meris could even betray Dany from within, just as the Windblown wound up doing to their allies outside Meereen.

Sellsword companies are not 'destroyed' when they fight on the losing side. Where are you getting stuff like that? And there was no reason to expect that the Yunkai'i would lose after Astapor was destroyed.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

It did wind up working: Barristan agreed to the price.

If he wants more than Pentos, I'd be surprised, but how would that be relevant? Barristan had his message delivered to Tatters, and that seems to have been enough.

Tatters wanted Pentos from Quentyn, not Daenerys. We don't know what he Meris and he would have told her if they had ever met. He may also want Pentos, yes, but we have no idea why this is the case. The guy is a walking corpse already, well past sixty, meaning he can die any die in this world, especially while he is leading a sellsword company.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If that was public knowledge, it would be harder to explain away what happened to the kid.

It is also rather hard to go through with the Aegon plan, no? Varys and Illyrio also faked the death of Jon Connington last time I looked.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If Tatters has heard that while he was away a blue-haired mercenary and his son were at Illyrio's, I don't think that adds much.

But he could know that and who they were, too. He could also know that Varys went to KL to destroy Dany's father, Aerys II, to avenge his Blackfyre kin/buddies.

Again, you don't have to believe any of that. But your attempts to dismiss the possibility are ad hoc arguments you pulled out of thin air which are not based on a text.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Dany knows that Illyrio tried to get her to come back to Pentos, and had tried to keep Viserys from leaving. Since you've acknowledged that she would find it understandable for Aegon to be kept secret, wouldn't it make sense to her that she would have had to come back when Illyrio was ready for the reveal in order to hear it first?

Not sure what you mean. Dany will learn about Aegon when he is in Westeros, and possibly already on the Iron Throne ruling in his own right. That is a completely different scenario which doesn't make Dany and Aegon easy allies.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Golden Company are known to be connected to the Blackfyres, but the plan was for them to join up with Dany (and Viserys, earlier on). That wasn't considered some big problem for them.

Yes, because they would come with a Targaryen husband for Dany and would enter her service and help them all to get home.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Yeah, maybe not the whole family tree but probably some things, like his father Haegon and uncle Daemon II most obviously. Of course, Daemon III was from back when the Blackfyres were a bigger deal (they were at least able to invade Westeros by themselves) and their descent from the king was more recent.

No, Daemon III is not more closely related to Daemon I than Maelys - who seems to be also a grandson of Daemon I. Egg's children and grandchildren should know as much about the Blackfyre family tree as Robert's brothers and children.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

How much leverage does he have if he just has a "piece" Meris was supposed to tell Dany, and not anything else that piece connects to? Tatters doesn't know Tyrion is on his way to add any info.

Sure, but he may have still thought that his information about Illyrio Mopatis and his eunuch buddy might incline her to listen to him.

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Aegon would be ahead of her by Targaryen rules of inheritance.

What rules would those be? Daenerys Targaryen would make the rules about her own government. She is not going to ask anyone's advice on that. She already has made herself into a queen, while Aegon is a mere prince who would be dependent on her for his dragon. A marriage between these two would depend on Aegon and Dany reaching an agreement how their joint rule would work later. Only one can sit on the Iron Throne at the same time, and Dany is not going to hand that throne completely to Aegon. Aegon might be a little bit more at Dany's side than Hizdahr was before she disappeared, but he would be likely have been more a king consort than Dany would be his queen consort.

This would have been dependent on Dany liking this guy who was her nephew. If she grew to love him things could work very well ... if not, then the plan would have likely been to do away with Dany as soon as she had given Aegon an heir.

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9 hours ago, a black swan said:

I don't understand what Jonrya/Jonsa has to do with it? The two aren't even comparable. A reach in so many ways.

I'm looking for reasons, for justifications. Why are there shadow/parallel characters, what purpose do they serve? Why are there hints towards Jonsa, or even Jonrya, when neither is a practical possibility (in my view)?

It is the best solution (I can't think of any others) - to assume that characters with a major destiny cast the shadows, and who has a bigger destiny than Jon, king under the snow, ptwp, AA candidate, heir to Aegon I?

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The "Ned's precious little girl" line was said about Arya. If it's meant to have any deeper meaning, as you have kindly pointed out (which I would love to hear more about), then George has very specifically only said that line about Arya for a reason. 

If it means anything, it means a 'marriage' to Jon.  Don't think that's going to happen, literally, but if it stays on the symbolic layer, I'm fine with it. A marriage of purpose - one mind, one heart, one soul. Comparable with Aegon and his sisters - together they conquered.

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Jeyne is very much an Arya proxy (as are Alys, Lyanna, Willow) in a more clear and obvious way than being a Sansa sycophant. I would think going forward, we'll see even more connections with the Jeyne/Arya especially if they end up meeting in Braavos. 

I love this stuff! Willow has an elder sister called Long Jeyne, and an aunt, Masha, who was a horror to young Cat because of her terrible red smile...

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Jon being half-Stark/Targ - that would seem more likely to be the image portrayed.

We shall see.

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Jeyne is fake.  We cannot be certain about Aegon.  What kind of a woman was Princess Elia to let her daughter die when her son was taken away to safety?  The Martells are a strange lot but come on.  Elia would not do this.  She would not take part in a ruse to keep her daughter in danger while her son is taken away to safety.  The real Aegon was killed by the Lannister goons. 

They are not major characters last we saw them.  Aegon will have his day in the South.  He gets to have his time in the sun before all hell breaks loose.  Aegon is the device through which the Martells will get their revenge against the Lannisters.  I fully expect this young man to fall head over heels for Arianne and she will goad him to attack the Lannisters.  She will do as Tyrion did.  Play on his pride.  She might even question his manhood.  The lad is easily manipulated. 

There is going to be a dance of the dragons between Aegon and Princess Daenerys.  George is clever though and we do not know what music they will be dancing to.  The term "dance" has many meanings and uses in the Song.  It was used to mean conflict in the past, as in the Dance of the Dragons.  But it is also used to refer to courtship.  Quentyn and Vicki comes to Slaver's Bay to court Princess Daenerys.  They were drawn to Meereen with dreams of power and to possess the most beautiful woman in the world.  It is a very dangerous courtship.  Quentyn was not worthy to wield the power.  Only Daenerys herself is worthy to have this level of power. 

Aegon will get his ass in a sling and he will seek out power like the men above.  That, in my opinion, is what the dance will be about.  His false identity will be exposed.  The lad will come to a crossroads.  He can take a subordinate role and serve.  He might choose foolishly and attempt to take Westeros anyway.  In which case it will not end well for him.  That is after all what Quentyn did.  Try to take what does not belong to him. 

Jeyne Poole played her part very well.  She fooled the north.  There are only a few people who know her secret: the Boltons, Jaime, Theon, Mance.  Jon Snow broke N-W rules and got the Order involved where it should never have been because of Jeyne.  It could get really interesting if she is carrying Ramsay's child.  Double that if Fat Walda is carrying a baby from Roose. 

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16 hours ago, frenin said:

 

You still haven't said how it "adds to suspicion".

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You are not making sense. Bloodbeard isn't a developed character with a bunch of sidekicks, unlike Tatters (who essentially has two nicknames).

Biter may not be a "developed character", but he had a sidekick (or is a sidekick) and appeared in more books than Tatters, without us ever learning his real name. I don't think there's any significance to us not learning his name either. We don't know the surnames of the Pentoshi royal families, but it would be unlikely to be "Mopatis". Illyrio wasn't born with a silver spoon, he climbed the ladder thanks to Varys.

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Sellsword companies are not 'destroyed' when they fight on the losing side. Where are you getting stuff like that?

That's what can happen to an army sufficiently routed.

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And there was no reason to expect that the Yunkai'i would lose after Astapor was destroyed.

The Yunkai had already been beaten by Daenerys when they were fighting on the defensive behind walls. The leadership of the Wise Masters don't seem competent (rotating command every day is not how any effective army I've heard of works) and the mercenaries have no respect for them.

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He may also want Pentos, yes, but we have no idea why this is the case

Going from commander of some mercenary company to ruler of a city would be a big step up for anybody, but the fact that Tatters left Pentos when he couldn't be more than a disposable figurehead makes it more of a long time dream of his.

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It is also rather hard to go through with the Aegon plan, no? Varys and Illyrio also faked the death of Jon Connington last time I looked.

Jon Connington was defeated, stripped of his lands and exiled. It's not that odd for him to drop off the map of his new home, or to drink himself to death.

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But he could know that and who they were, too. He could also know that Varys went to KL to destroy Dany's father, Aerys II, to avenge his Blackfyre kin/buddies.

He couldn't "know" that about Varys because it's not true. Varys told Aerys not to let Tywin in, which was absolutely the correct decision. Varys was able to assassinate Kevan and Pycelle, and he may well have killed Tywin himself if Tyrion hadn't done it for him. He didn't assassinate any Targaryens though (with Dany we never actually found out what the wine would do, and the foiling of the plot advanced Varys & Illyrio's actual plan in that book). The Targaryens and Lannisters did a thorough job of destroying that regime without Varys' help.

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Again, you don't have to believe any of that. But your attempts to dismiss the possibility are ad hoc arguments you pulled out of thin air which are not based on a text.

Denying that Varys went over to "destroy" Aerys isn't ad-hoc, it's what's compatible with the text.

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No, Daemon III is not more closely related to Daemon I than Maelys - who seems to be also a grandson of Daemon I.

We don't actually know Maelys' family tree. Daemon III was closely related enough to be the heir, whereas Maelys took charge of the GC by kinslaying.

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Sure, but he may have still thought that his information about Illyrio Mopatis and his eunuch buddy might incline her to listen to him.

Illyrio's known connection to Dany is that he hosted her and Viserys, and was involved in her marriage to Khal Drogo. Maybe if Tatters was claiming to be friends with Illyrio he might think that would help him by association, but if he just had some dirt to sling I doubt that would be any more effective than when Jorah endeavored to make her distrust him. Dany reacted badly to the demand for Pentos because of Illyrio, so combining the two would make it seem like anything he said was just a means of overcoming her objection. On the other hand, he didn't actually know she'd react badly and despite seeming like a smart guy I can't expect him to always make the right move, so maybe you've got a bit of a point.

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What rules would those be?

The rules that the Westerosi follow. The one time a woman was designated heir to the throne there was a civil war, and it's now considered an "iron precedent" that they can't inherit.

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12 hours ago, Bowen 747 said:

Jeyne is fake.  We cannot be certain about Aegon.  What kind of a woman was Princess Elia to let her daughter die when her son was taken away to safety?  The Martells are a strange lot but come on.  Elia would not do this.  She would not take part in a ruse to keep her daughter in danger while her son is taken away to safety.  The real Aegon was killed by the Lannister goons.

I think the idea is that Aegon could be swapped because he wouldn't be recognizable. Rhaenys would be recognized. Given the option to save one of her children or none of her children she may have picked one. 

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12 hours ago, Bowen 747 said:

Jeyne Poole played her part very well.  She fooled the north.  There are only a few people who know her secret: the Boltons, Jaime, Theon, Mance.  Jon Snow broke N-W rules and got the Order involved where it should never have been because of Jeyne.  It could get really interesting if she is carrying Ramsay's child.  Double that if Fat Walda is carrying a baby from Roose. 

Mance.  I don't think knows the truth.  He helped Jeyne because he believed she was Arya.  Jon's orders were to get Arya.  

 

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Aegon will be misrepresented as the Azor Ahai.  This is the lie which Daenerys will need to uncover and reveal.  Slay the lie does not mean slay the liar.  The prophecy would have said "slay the liars."  Stannis, Jon, and Aegon will each at some point be presented as the Azor Ahai.  Those lies will be uncovered.  

Jon should know better to believe in prophecies since the last one bit him in the bum.  He will play along with the lie only to help the Starks and get revenge on Bowen Marsh.  It's still a lie though and he must be exposed.  Ethics is not one of his qualities.  Stannis still believes he is the Azor Ahai and that belief will have to be broken.  Aegon will easily believe the lie.  

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7 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

You still haven't said how it "adds to suspicion".

JonCon wasn't in Westeros when the Sack happened and he was wandering long after he was given Aegon, people will doubt about his parentage for that.

 

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16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Biter may not be a "developed character", but he had a sidekick (or is a sidekick) and appeared in more books than Tatters, without us ever learning his real name. I don't think there's any significance to us not learning his name either. We don't know the surnames of the Pentoshi royal families, but it would be unlikely to be "Mopatis". Illyrio wasn't born with a silver spoon, he climbed the ladder thanks to Varys.

You are deflecting.

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

That's what can happen to an army sufficiently routed.

Which is how likely when you are part of a force that besieges a city and has no reason to expect that they get help from a third party?

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The Yunkai had already been beaten by Daenerys when they were fighting on the defensive behind walls. The leadership of the Wise Masters don't seem competent (rotating command every day is not how any effective army I've heard of works) and the mercenaries have no respect for them.

The Yunkai'i weren't defeated, they yielded to Dany after their sellswords defected to her. You also don't seem to know events. The Yunkai'i had two competent leaders while Yurkhaz zo Yunzak and Yezzan zo Qagaz were still around. Only after these two died shortly after each other did the whole 'rotating command' nonsense start. And that is when things started to look back for the Yunkai'i if the Meereense were willing to restart the war.

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Going from commander of some mercenary company to ruler of a city would be a big step up for anybody, but the fact that Tatters left Pentos when he couldn't be more than a disposable figurehead makes it more of a long time dream of his.

How do you know that?

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Jon Connington was defeated, stripped of his lands and exiled. It's not that odd for him to drop off the map of his new home, or to drink himself to death.

LOL, and how is such a sham different from Illyrio pretending that his toddler son died of some illness, passing the body of some other child as his son? He does have access to scores and hundreds of slave children.

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He couldn't "know" that about Varys because it's not true. Varys told Aerys not to let Tywin in, which was absolutely the correct decision. Varys was able to assassinate Kevan and Pycelle, and he may well have killed Tywin himself if Tyrion hadn't done it for him. He didn't assassinate any Targaryens though (with Dany we never actually found out what the wine would do, and the foiling of the plot advanced Varys & Illyrio's actual plan in that book). The Targaryens and Lannisters did a thorough job of destroying that regime without Varys' help.

There is enough evidence to consider the possibility that Varys went to KL to destroy the Targaryens for some reason. He is said to have fueled the Mad King's paranoia. Whether that's true or not remains to be seen, but if Varys or Illyrio have a Blackfyre background Varys wouldn't have gone to KL to be loyal Master of Whisperers to the Mad King. Unless he was a very weird person who doesn't give two cents about his incompetent ancestors.

Varys urging Aerys II not to trust Tywin isn't necessarily a sign of loyalty. It could have just been an attempt to prevent the sack of the city and/or the king from implementing his wildfire plan. While the city is still besieged it would not be burned down yet.

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We don't actually know Maelys' family tree. Daemon III was closely related enough to be the heir, whereas Maelys took charge of the GC by kinslaying.

Daemon III was a grandson, which is what Maelys and the fourth Daemon are likely going to be, too. The fourth Daemon cannot be a son of Daemon I because Daemon I had a son named Daemon in Daemon II, and wouldn't have had two sons named Daemon.

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Illyrio's known connection to Dany is that he hosted her and Viserys, and was involved in her marriage to Khal Drogo. Maybe if Tatters was claiming to be friends with Illyrio he might think that would help him by association, but if he just had some dirt to sling I doubt that would be any more effective than when Jorah endeavored to make her distrust him. Dany reacted badly to the demand for Pentos because of Illyrio, so combining the two would make it seem like anything he said was just a means of overcoming her objection. On the other hand, he didn't actually know she'd react badly and despite seeming like a smart guy I can't expect him to always make the right move, so maybe you've got a bit of a point.

Who cares what Dany would do? That's not the point - the point is what this guy, Tatters, thinks he might be able to convince Daenerys Targaryen of. He is written as a guy who thinks he can convince Dany of something.

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The rules that the Westerosi follow. The one time a woman was designated heir to the throne there was a civil war, and it's now considered an "iron precedent" that they can't inherit.

No, the 'iron precedent' nonsense goes back to the Great Council of 101 AC, not the Dance. But this kind of legal prattle is not relevant when you decide to invade Westeros with an army. Nobody is going to ask the Westerosi whether they want Daenerys as queen - they will be given the opportunity to cheer her or die. This is not a disputed succession, it is an invasion. She and Aegon would have come to an understanding back in Volantis when they agreed to marry ... or not. They would not allow any of their future subjects interfere with the way they set things up - just as the Conqueror didn't allow his subjects to dictate how he was running his family or kingdoms. It makes no sense to assume that a married couple would allow others to dictate how their own marriage goes.

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On 5/15/2020 at 6:06 PM, Springwatch said:

I love this stuff! Willow has an elder sister called Long Jeyne, and an aunt, Masha, who was a horror to young Cat because of her terrible red smile...

I love it too! There is also a Red Jeyne and a Grey Jeyne. Two peasant girls who were hunted by Ramsay and his wolf-killing hell Hounds and the girls impressed him enough to earn a quick death and their names to live on as one of his Hounds. Ramsay also names one of his bitches Willow. Some of these Hounds have a bit if a personality too. Gonna be cool to Nymeria/Ghost/Shaggydog possibly facing off with these 7 wolf-killing Hounds at some point in the next book. 

Spoiler

Would you agree that Nymeria could possibly already be in the North at the beginning of Arya's first Wind's chapter? Judging by her wolf dream where Nym is running through a dark pine forest and is being watched by a Tree (Bran or Bloodraven?) Could only be through a weirwood right?

 

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On 5/15/2020 at 11:22 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

The rules that the Westerosi follow. The one time a woman was designated heir to the throne there was a civil war, and it's now considered an "iron precedent" that they can't inherit.

Daenerys Targaryen should not (hopefully not) abide by such a silly custom.  She didn't let Dothraki custom put her in Vaes Dothrak.  Neither should she let Westerosi custom, which has already been broken by Rhaenyra, keep her from what belongs to her.  There will be plenty of precedents of ruling females by the time Cersei Lannister, Arianne Martell, and Margery Tyrell are done with their games.  Westeros will be begging for her help before too long.  

 

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On 5/16/2020 at 4:29 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I think the idea is that Aegon could be swapped because he wouldn't be recognizable. Rhaenys would be recognized. Given the option to save one of her children or none of her children she may have picked one. 

Considering the that Rhaegar thought the Aegon was the PwiP; I think he and Elia would takes steps to hide him.  It's not unheard of.  Cersei wants to do the same thing with Tommen.  Dye his hair and hide him.
 

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A Clash of Kings - Tyrion X

The queen intends to send Prince Tommen away." They knelt alone in the hushed dimness of the sept, surrounded by shadows and flickering candles, but even so Lancel kept his voice low. "Lord Gyles will take him to Rosby, and conceal him there in the guise of a page. They plan to darken his hair and tell everyone that he is the son of a hedge knight."

In the Dunk and Egg novels; Aegon essentially does the same thing.  Goes around bald and attaches himself to a hedge knight.

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On 5/13/2020 at 12:00 AM, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Aegon could easily be real. Aegon could easily be Rhaegar's only living son.  

 

Therefore he could easily be the most impactful character in the rest of the Iron Throne storyline. Unless Dany finally comes to Westeros.

True.

Whether or not Aegon is real is not the big problem here. The big problem is legitimacy.

Aegon could be real but Daenerys can still outrank him. Rhaegar was never crowned. Viserys, on the other hand, was crowned and Daenerys was his named heir....and this all happened publicly. While Aegon was being raised and groomed in the shadows, Viserys and Daenerys were public figures and went to the school of hard knocks. Aegon will win little respect for that.

On 5/11/2020 at 12:26 PM, Springwatch said:

fAegon and fArya are just shadow characters. A might-have-been for Jon and Arya. Or even Sansa.

Goooooooooooooooooooood effing point.

On 5/11/2020 at 4:14 PM, Ser Uncle P said:

Both fArya and to a lesser extent fAegon are examples of how the quality of pacing by GRRM has dropped since Storm. 

 

I strongly disagree.

fArya was literally in A Storm of Swords (i.e. Jaime VIII, Jaime IX and I think she has an appearance in Tyrion VI) and fAegon has been a part of the plot since A Game of Thrones (i.e. Arya III in Game, Daenerys IV in Clash)

On 5/15/2020 at 3:52 PM, Bowen 747 said:

Jeyne Poole played her part very well.  She fooled the north.  There are only a few people who know her secret: the Boltons, Jaime, Theon, Mance.  Jon Snow broke N-W rules and got the Order involved where it should never have been because of Jeyne.  It could get really interesting if she is carrying Ramsay's child.  Double that if Fat Walda is carrying a baby from Roose. 

This is not true.

Catelyn knows. The entire Brotherhood without Banners knows. Brienne knows. Podrick knows. Ser Hyle Hunt knows. Lady Smallwood knows. A bunch of smallfolk in the Riverlands know because they've seen Arya for themselves at times when fArya was being held in captivity in the Riverlands. The Elder Brother also knows. The Hound -- aka the Gravedigger -- knows. A bunch of the Freys know. Cersei knows. Varys knows. Tyrion knows. Kevan knows (or should I say, they knew). The kindly man knows. Littlefinger knows. Mace Tyrell knows.

Maege Mormont, Howland Reed and Galbart Glover also have good reason to suspect that fArya is fake as does Jason Mallister. The waif might even know the truth. Stannis, Asha and the rest of the Baratheon camp are a chapter away from figuring it all out.

Besides, I don't know about the other lords, Wyman Manderly and Barbrey Dustin were not born yesterday. They know what the previous generation of Starks looked like and the Arya they knew looks like all of them (especially Lyanna). Arya has grey eyes whereas Jeyne has brown eyes. That is specifically the first thing Theon notices and Theon is basically mentally ill at that point. You think Barbrey Dustin wouldn't notice? Not only does Jeyne not have the trademark grey eyes of House Stark, she looks nothing like Lyanna Stark or Ned Stark.

Come on now. It's hardly a secret anymore because the better question is who doesn't know that fArya is an impostor. 

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On 5/16/2020 at 6:17 AM, frenin said:

JonCon wasn't in Westeros when the Sack happened and he was wandering long after he was given Aegon, people will doubt about his parentage for that.

When Connington met Young Griff is not public knowledge.

On 5/16/2020 at 3:35 PM, Lord Varys said:

Which is how likely when you are part of a force that besieges a city and has no reason to expect that they get help from a third party?

Rodrik Cassel and Stannis Baratheon have both besieged castles and lost most of their forces. Mance Rayder didn't lose that large a fraction of his enormous host, but he still wound up captured and sentenced to death. The Windblown would be regarded as entirely expendable by the Yunkai, and their fellow mercenary companies are no more likely to stick out their necks should the Windblown require that.

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The Yunkai'i weren't defeated

Very funny. When your troops throw down their weapons and yield, that's a victory!

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they yielded to Dany after their sellswords defected to her

That's still a defeat, and Dany was expecting to win even without the Stormcrows defecting.

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The Yunkai'i had two competent leaders while Yurkhaz zo Yunzak and Yezzan zo Qagaz were still around. Only after these two died shortly after each other did the whole 'rotating command' nonsense start.

Competent people don't rotate command even after two generals die. And Tatters hadn't actually committed the Windblown to Dany prior to that, he was leaving all roads open.

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Illyrio pretending that his toddler son died of some illness, passing the body of some other child as his son? He does have access to scores and hundreds of slave children.

Ok, I'll acknowledge that could happen, with the younger the child the easier that would be. Actually having a similarly aged and looking child coincidentally show up at that time would be suspicious, but if Illyrio is willing to send him away in the swap less so.

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There is enough evidence to consider the possibility that Varys went to KL to destroy the Targaryens for some reason.

What did he actually do to destroy them? Crown Lyanna the Queen of Love and Beauty?

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He is said to have fueled the Mad King's paranoia

Barristan thinks of him that way. Barristan also wished Rhaegar had been king. We get indications that Rhaegar was indeed plotting to depose his father, meaning that a competent spymaster doing his job would thereby stoke Aerys' paranoia against Rhaegar.

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Unless he was a very weird person who doesn't give two cents about his incompetent ancestors.

Varys was a born a slave, eventually sold to a sorcerer who castrated him and left him to die. As an Essossi without a surname, we don't know anything about his family, but whoever they were they certainly didn't manage to do anything to ensure his wellbeing.

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the king from implementing his wildfire plan. While the city is still besieged it would not be burned down yet.

Varys didn't know about that (even the surviving alchemists didn't). If he had, he wouldn't have continued sitting on a ticking time bomb getting ever more unstable with time. Tyrion wouldn't have had to come up with his own wildfire plan, because Varys would have wanted it out of KL and preferably used against Stannis.

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which is what Maelys and the fourth Daemon are likely going to be, too

What makes you think they're not further down the line?

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The fourth Daemon cannot be a son of Daemon I because Daemon I had a son named Daemon in Daemon II, and wouldn't have had two sons named Daemon.

I never claimed he was a son of Daemon I. I said Maelys was more distantly related to Daemon I than Daemon III was, and we don't know his family tree.

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He is written as a guy who thinks he can convince Dany of something.

He sends the female Westerosi in his company in the expectation that Dany would be more likely to listen to her. And he doesn't need to have that much confidence in the ploy succeeding if the point is just to add the possible option of joining her side if she seems likely to win.

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No, the 'iron precedent' nonsense goes back to the Great Council of 101 AC, not the Dance.

The precedent originated earlier, but it got cemented with the Dance. After that, inheritance wasn't even supposed to pass through females (although Robert Baratheon's claim goes through one).

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Nobody is going to ask the Westerosi whether they want Daenerys as queen - they will be given the opportunity to cheer her or die

Joffrey also thought people had the option of cheering or dying, like Maegor before him. GRRM wasn't being all that subtle with his stories of brutal rulers who thought they could rule with force alone and ultimately failed. And part of the point of Varys' riddle of the sellsword is that they aren't ruled by sellswords, but kings who are able to command the loyalty of swordsmen.

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It makes no sense to assume that a married couple would allow others to dictate how their own marriage goes.

This isn't a private matter of a marriage, it's political matter of who the Westerosi will acclaim as their ruler. There have been male figureheads (like Ronnel Penrose) who let their wives make the important decisions, but Westerosi norms still require that the man be officially in charge.

 

9 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

Neither should she let Westerosi custom, which has already been broken by Rhaenyra, keep her from what belongs to her.  There will be plenty of precedents of ruling females by the time Cersei Lannister, Arianne Martell, and Margery Tyrell are done with their games.

Rhaenyra is considered to be a negative example everyone wants to avoid, which is why inheritance leaned even further away from women after her. Cersei is ruling as regent for her son, and her negative example will be used for even more arguments against female rulers.

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  Westeros will be begging for her help before too long.  

Help against Aegon?

 

3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Aegon could be real but Daenerys can still outrank him. Rhaegar was never crowned. Viserys, on the other hand, was crowned and Daenerys was his named heir

The first-placed direct male line descendant inherits, which would be Aegon. This is complicated by Aerys naming Viserys heir ahead of Aegon, but he didn't name Daenerys as heir. Daenerys' status as Viserys' heir depended on the assumption that Aegon was dead, and a reveal that it wasn't the case (like when Viserys II was discovered, or if people knew Bran & Rickon were still alive) would change that.

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While Aegon was being raised and groomed in the shadows, Viserys and Daenerys were public figures and went to the school of hard knocks. Aegon will win little respect for that.

Maester Aemon didn't become king because he refused it, his vows as a maester could have been overriden by people who thought Aegon IV was "half a peasant" for being squired to a hedge knight.

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fAegon has been a part of the plot since A Game of Thrones (i.e. Arya III in Game, Daenerys IV in Clash)

Arya overheard them talking about a Dothraki invasion which didn't require any additional Targaryens. The GC's discussion of the changing nature of the "fat man's plans" beginning with said Dothraki invasion has been taken as a meta-commentary on GRRM changing the story.

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6 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

When Connington met Young Griff is not public knowledge

No, but people can do basic maths can't they?? JonCon was with no child during a part of his time Essos, certainly not when he was a sellsword.

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