To The Wall / To The King

[House Of Wolves]

 This is a theory of mine. Based off  of Jamie's  A Feast for Crows chapters on the siege of Riverrun . It is my belief  that the Blackfish and multiple Tully loyalists are aware Jon Snow is Robbs Heir and a couple men are currently already on there way to the wall to join Jon there  new King.

So the first question that needs to be Answered when Discussing this topic is did Brynden Tully (The Blackfish) know that Robb Named Jon his Heir? We know Robb was planning to name Jon His heir until a time in which he had children. We also know that Brynden was not at the signing of Robb's Will by all the Lords. We do know that Based off of Catelyn's POV that The Blackfish had become Robb's #1 Advisor during the war.  We also know that The Blackfish had only just recently left Robbs side before the Official signing of his WIll. It stands to reason based off what we know that Catelyn was not the first to be told of Robbs plan to name Jon his Heir. It seems more likely to me that he would have discussed this with Brynden first.  We are only led to think that Brynden does not  know about Jon based off of his reaction to Jamie at the mention of Jon.

"I will permit you to take the black. Ned Stark's bastard is the Lord Commander on the Wall." -Jamie

The Blackfish narrowed his eyes. "Did your father arrange for that as well? Catelyn never trusted the boy, as I recall, no more than she ever trusted Theon Greyjoy. It would seem she was right about them both..."

- Brynden Tully

I think The Blackfish was trying to Deceive Jamie. The fact that GRRM writes that the mention of Jon caused a noticeable  facial reaction for Brynden , Makes it seem like to me that he is lying .  It would make sense he would want to make sure that Jamie thinks he distrusted Jon, in order to try and keep what should be obvious to Jamie , that there is a serious risk of people turning to Jon as a replacement for Robb as their King. Also Lets look at  Catelyn telling Brynden bad things about Jon.  While not impossible,  It does not fit what we know about her. She did not like to talk about Jon.  She did not even like it when people reminded her of Jon. She did not like to think about him let alone talk about him. Even if the Blackfish somehow wasn't told By Robb about his plans regarding Jon  . Edmure who did know entered into the city at the end of the siege of Riverrun and would have more then likely told him at that point.

So why do I think There are Currently people Heading to Jon? While we have no clue where The Blackfish is headed. He could be going to the wall and Jon. He could also be going somewhere else. There is however two people Who we know are headed to the wall. Two Tully Loyalists after the Surrender of Riverrun supposedly  decided to take the black. Ser Desmond Grell and Ser Robin Ryger. Desmond Grell  who is the master-at-arms at Riverrun . A guy who has been in there service almost all his life. Robin Ryger Who is the Captain of the Guards of Riverun.  It is pretty convenient isn't it? That probably the two most Prominent Knights of Riverrun. The most Trusted Men of Riverrun  (outside of the Tullys themselves) were the only people who choose to take the black when they were not being forced to. These Men Were extremely Loyal to the Tullys. These are men who could have gotten  good positions with other  Notable houses but they chose the Black instead. Also because they would have been two  of the most trusted men at Riverrun for the Blackfish ,they would be very likely to be trusted with the fact that Jon was now the King.

The Tullys and the men of Riverrun have not stopped fighting the war , nor have they stopped viewing the Starks as there current rulers. The fact that they would not trade  Dead Robbs wife for Edmure there own lord shows that. Also there is this Quote from the Blackfish.

Jaime: Does it matter how the boy perished? He's no less dead, and his kingdom died when he did.
Brynden: You must be blind as well as maimed, Ser. Lift your eyes, and you will see  the Dire wolf  still flies above our walls.

This was not a man who was looking to stop fighting. These are people who are still fighting for the Starks.  I Believe Ser Desmond Grell and Ser Robin Ryger who are currently on there way to the wall are aware Jon Is there King and that is why they are going. It is also interesting that Robbs Original plan was to free Jon from the Watch by replacing with more men. So they could just be going to the wall to protect him, serve him or they could possibly be going to take his place.

While I think Bryndens original plan was to keep holding onto Riverrun,  once it became clear it was lost he knew it was better for as many men to survive in order serve Jon there King. They Lived to fight another day. It will be interesting to see who all knows Jon is Robbs Heir already. I am also interested to know what Bryndens next plan of action is.

Thoughts?

[The Green Bard]

On 5/10/2020 at 1:28 AM, House Of Wolves said:

I think The Blackfish was trying to Deceive Jamie. The fact that GRRM writes that the mention of Jon caused a noticeable  facial reaction for Brynden , Makes it seem like to me that he is lying . 

I was ready to completely disagree with you, but this is a fair point.  He may have been deceiving him.  I caution, though, that sometimes we see more deception than the author intends, though he certainly intends some of it.  We really need another book to be published!

On 5/10/2020 at 1:28 AM, House Of Wolves said:

We do know that Based off of Catelyn's POV that The Blackfish had become Robb's #1 Advisor during the war.  We also know that The Blackfish had only just recently left Robbs side before the Official signing of his WIll.

Yes, I agree the the Blackfish was a huge part of a lot of what Robb accomplished from the very beginning.  I will caution though, that I think Robb made the decision after he left Riverrun.  The information would have to filter back to the blackfish, IMO, though it's certainly possible it has.  I don't think Robb knew before he left Riverrun, though. 

On 5/10/2020 at 1:28 AM, House Of Wolves said:

Edmure who did know entered into the city at the end of the siege of Riverrun and would have more then likely told him at that point.

This is a way that it could get back to him, but Edmure had not yet entered Riverrun by the time the conversation between Brynden and Jaime happened.  I assume you know this, otherwise it's a hole in your logic.  Did he know when he talked to Jaime or did Edmure tell him?

On 5/10/2020 at 1:28 AM, House Of Wolves said:

It is also interesting that Robbs Original plan was to free Jon from the Watch by replacing with more men.

Do you mean if Robb died, that would be in the will, correct?  I don't think he was just planning to free Jon while he was alive.  

On 5/10/2020 at 1:28 AM, House Of Wolves said:

Brynden: You must be blind as well as maimed, Ser. Lift your eyes, and you will see  the Dire wolf  still flies above our walls.

I definitely agree that this might be evidence of your point.  The 2 men from Riverrun sent to the wall is even better evidence of it.  

I'd think there's a possibility that Blackfish is involved in freeing these 2 from Jaime's escort, but I am not yet convinced (yet) that they head north thereafter.  There is all sorts of stuff Sansa and Lady Stoneheart-related that mak me wonder what they may be able to accomplish if they remain in the Riverlands.  Besides, Winter is coming.  The may feel they need to remain in their home region to help their people prepare for the coming storm.

Nice write-up.  I am surprised that there haven't been that many responses!

[divica]

1 hour ago, The Green Bard said:

I was ready to completely disagree with you, but this is a fair point.  He may have been deceiving him.  I caution, though, that sometimes we see more deception than the author intends, though he certainly intends some of it.  We really need another book to be published

 

On 5/10/2020 at 6:28 AM, House Of Wolves said:

I think The Blackfish was trying to Deceive Jamie. The fact that GRRM writes that the mention of Jon caused a noticeable  facial reaction for Brynden , Makes it seem like to me that he is lying .  It would make sense he would want to make sure that Jamie thinks he distrusted Jon, in order to try and keep what should be obvious to Jamie , that there is a serious risk of people turning to Jon as a replacement for Robb as their King.

Actualy, I would very much like to understand the logic behind his thinking. Why would the lannisters make jon LC? Neither the lannisters nor the boltons like that jon became LC and would rather kill him. How is it that the balckfish's first thought is that they were the ones behind it? What could they possibly gain by making jon LC instead of killing him?

The rest is mostly grrm being completly lost on what to do about the north. Between the will that hasn t apeared yet for some reason. Information about the other that we still don t know. Conspiracies everywhere. The region is completly unprepared to fight the others. We have too many people trying to control the north...

Honestly, I think we need na entire book about the north just to put the place ready for what is coming.

 

edit

I also think that LSH, Jaime and brienne are going to the Wall. That brienne convinced Jaime to take the black instead of being killed by LSH.

[Back door hodor]

I disagree that the Blackfish was acting. For me, it is totally in character for a Tully to believe a family member. Brynden, does not know Lord Snow, is not related to him by blood or marriage, and has no reason to doubt Cat's assessment of him. 

That being said, I do think think its possible that Robbs will could come back into play in the story.

[House Of Wolves]

20 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

Yes, I agree the the Blackfish was a huge part of a lot of what Robb accomplished from the very beginning.  I will caution though, that I think Robb made the decision after he left Riverrun.  The information would have to filter back to the blackfish, IMO, though it's certainly possible it has.  I don't think Robb knew before he left Riverrun, though.

I personally think Robb would have told him. While I do not know exactly how long since rob had left RIverrun. Robbs Will signing chapter was the chapter after his last Riverrun Chapter. So I know it was not that long of a time. I do not think naming Jon his heir was something Robb had not been thinking about for a little while.  Robb had already pushed Catelyn out of his inner circle. He planned to ship her away after the wedding. Robb Signed His will in the same chapter he told her.  Robb only told her when he did because he knew how she felt about Jon and did not want it sprung on her at the signing of the will.

20 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

This is a way that it could get back to him, but Edmure had not yet entered Riverrun by the time the conversation between Brynden and Jaime happened.  I assume you know this, otherwise it's a hole in your logic.  Did he know when he talked to Jaime or did Edmure tell him?

Yes, I am aware Jamie talked to him first. The point I was trying to make was even if Brynden had not Known before then he would have known when Edmure entered Riverrun. Which would still explain the two Tully men taking the black.

IMO I do think Brynden knew about Robbs intention to make Jon his heir. I do admit though it is possible he did not know and was instead informed by Edmure. This is just speculation but I think Brynden and Robb discussed naming Jon his heir at Riverrun.  Brynden however did not know that Robb had Offically written and signed the WIll  before his death . That is Until Edmure confirms it before the Surrender of Riverrun.

20 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

Do you mean if Robb died, that would be in the will, correct?  I don't think he was just planning to free Jon while he was alive. 

We do not know if it was if that was in his Will or for sure he wanted Jon out before his death. When talking to Catlelyn I read it as Robb did want to try and get Jon Released from the Nights Watch by offering up men regardless if he died or not.

20 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

I definitely agree that this might be evidence of your point.  The 2 men from Riverrun sent to the wall is even better evidence of it.  

I'd think there's a possibility that Blackfish is involved in freeing these 2 from Jaime's escort, but I am not yet convinced (yet) that they head north thereafter.  There is all sorts of stuff Sansa and Lady Stoneheart-related that mak me wonder what they may be able to accomplish if they remain in the Riverlands.  Besides, Winter is coming.  The may feel they need to remain in their home region to help their people prepare for the coming storm.

Nice write-up.  I am surprised that there haven't been that many responses!

I think the two Tullys are definitely going to the wall. The blackfish definitely could be going to a countless  # of locations.

Thank you for your Response.

18 hours ago, divica said:

Actualy, I would very much like to understand the logic behind his thinking. Why would the lannisters make jon LC? Neither the lannisters nor the boltons like that jon became LC and would rather kill him. How is it that the balckfish's first thought is that they were the ones behind it? What could they possibly gain by making jon LC instead of killing him?

Exactly, why would He think the Lannisters made Jon Lord Commander.  The entire line he tells Jamie seems like nonsense. I just think he was trying to make  Jamie think he did not trust Jon.

8 hours ago, Back door hodor said:

I disagree that the Blackfish was acting. For me, it is totally in character for a Tully to believe a family member. Brynden, does not know Lord Snow, is not related to him by blood or marriage, and has no reason to doubt Cat's assessment of him. 

That being said, I do think think its possible that Robbs will could come back into play in the story.

Lets say for a second Cat did say bad things about Jon to Brynden.  Should he believe it? That a teenager who was trusted enough to be voted  Lord Commander of one of oldest most Noble Organizations in the entire 7 Kingdoms is untrustworthy.  He compares Jon  with Theon who Betrayed the Starks and  Is believed to have murdered Robbs brothers. I doubt he would have much reason to believe Cat about Jon. He would know that Cat would have reason to dislike Ned,s bastard son.

That being said. Again, I do not think It is in Character for Catlelyn  to talk To Brynden about Jon.  As I said she did not like to talk about Jon, She did not like to think about Jon.I could be wrong but I dont think Cat brings up The topic of Jon once in the books herself and when ever she is made to think about him it upsets her.  I Highly doubt Jon was ever,  not once , talked about Between the two of them. Neither of them would have wanted to bring up the Subject of Jon to the other.  let alone this Scenario where Cat In her limited meetings with her Uncle since her Marriage to Ned , was telling  big enough lies about Jon that Brynden sees him as close in Character to Theon.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

The exchange between Jaime and Brynden reminds me of the scene in Davos IV, ADwD, with Wyman Manderly and Robett Glover and their talk of bastards.

I don't know that Robb told Brynden anything about his decision concerning Jon, but there is the possibility of two sources of information.

The first one is Jeyne Westerling.

It's possible that Robb could have told her what he intended to do. She sees him spend an entire morning writing a letter before he burns it. The conversation Jeyne has with Catelyn following Rickard Karstark's execution is about the letter Robb writes, then burns, him looking at maps and turns into one about Jeyne giving Robb an heir. 

Robb was not intent on going back to Riverrun after Edmure's wedding. He was going to head north. I think he would have told Jeyne that he was going to make Jon his heir in case he died in battle and didn't manage to get her pregnant.

If Robb didn't tell Brynden about Jon, and he knew before Edmure entered Riverrun, then Jeyne could connect that dot.

The second person is Jason Mallister. 

He surrenders sometime in (maybe early) AFfC when Black Walder descends on him. So following the Red Wedding, he might have had the opportunity to not only send a raven to Riverrun to inform Brynden of Robb's will and him naming Jon his heir, but also one to the Shadow Tower where his uncle is the commander.

[divica]

1 hour ago, House Of Wolves said:

Exactly, why would He think the Lannisters made Jon Lord Commander.  The entire line he tells Jamie seems like nonsense. I just think he was trying to make  Jamie think he did not trust Jon.

 

1 hour ago, House Of Wolves said:

Lets say for a second Cat did say bad things about Jon to Brynden.  Should he believe it? That a teenager who was trusted enough to be voted  Lord Commander of one of oldest most Noble Organizations in the entire 7 Kingdoms is untrustworthy.  He compares Jon  with Theon who Betrayed the Starks and  Is believed to have murdered Robbs brothers. I doubt he would have much reason to believe Cat about Jon. He would know that Cat would have reason to dislike Ned,s bastard son.

I would also say that jon staying in the NW should also be proof of his character. As the last living son of ned stark he could have left the NW and tried to gain control of the north for himself. Someone like theon would have tried something along those lines...

37 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The exchange between Jaime and Brynden reminds me of the scene in Davos IV, ADwD, with Wyman Manderly and Robett Glover and their talk of bastards.

I don't know that Robb told Brynden anything about his decision concerning Jon, but there is the possibility of two sources of information.

The first one is Jeyne Westerling.

It's possible that Robb could have told her what he intended to do. She sees him spend an entire morning writing a letter before he burns it. The conversation Jeyne has with Catelyn following Rickard Karstark's execution is about the letter Robb writes, then burns, him looking at maps and turns into one about Jeyne giving Robb an heir. 

Robb was not intent on going back to Riverrun after Edmure's wedding. He was going to head north. I think he would have told Jeyne that he was going to make Jon his heir in case he died in battle and didn't manage to get her pregnant.

If Robb didn't tell Brynden about Jon, and he knew before Edmure entered Riverrun, then Jeyne could connect that dot.

The second person is Jason Mallister. 

He surrenders sometime in (maybe early) AFfC when Black Walder descends on him. So following the Red Wedding, he might have had the opportunity to not only send a raven to Riverrun to inform Brynden of Robb's will and him naming Jon his heir, but also one to the Shadow Tower where his uncle is the commander.

Great analises. And gives little doubt that the Blackfish must know about the will.

 

This just shows how weird the northern political sitution is. First, Robb's will by legitimizing jon automatically makes him his heir over his siblings. So even if people find out about bran and rickon being alive (and I don t believe they will be in the north anytime soon) we will have people divided between the bastard, the cripple and the kid. With people like wyman manderly ploting things behind the scenes I have no idea what might happen. Will we have a jon that will seek to become king despite his brothers being alive? Who will the people from the riverlands behave when they learn about rickon and bran?

[The Green Bard]

20 hours ago, House Of Wolves said:

So I know it was not that long of a time.

I dunno, it wasn't exactly a short journey to the twins.  That particular chapter covers a lot of time on the ground.  what with time jumps and flashbacks.  GRRM does this often in his POV's starting in the middle of the timeline of the chapter, having the POV think back to the beginning of the chapter timeline, then moving forward in time from there.    

BTW, I have a (long) thread here (direwolves 2 link in my signature) which covers Grey Wind and Robb's relationship in the story.  Check it out if you want (actually I hope you would enjoy the whole series, given your name).  I recall that this chapter definitely has different settings in the beginning, middle, and end because of the different ways that Grey Wind and Robb interact within the chapter.  

On 5/12/2020 at 12:50 AM, divica said:

I would very much like to understand the logic behind his thinking.

It's quite illogical.  My initial impression of the exchange was that the blackfish assumes that Jaime would always have nefarious intentions so he just spitballs.  Given how Cat feels about Jon, though, Brynden may legitimately think it more logical, because he would assume the bastard was treated badly at Winterfell (as it would have been at Riverrun), not realizing that the truth is that only Cat mistreated him.  In that way, I kinda see a morbid logic that might make him assume Jon would be the type to betray his family.  

As I consider it, though, misdirection by the Blackfish, to make Jaime think he had no interest in the north, makes more and more sense to me.

20 hours ago, House Of Wolves said:

The point I was trying to make was even if Brynden had not Known before then he would have known when Edmure entered Riverrun. Which would still explain the two Tully men taking the black.

That's what I thought.  thx for clarifying.  

22 hours ago, House Of Wolves said:

I read it as Robb did want to try and get Jon Released from the Nights Watch by offering up men regardless if he died or not.

I hadn't previously considered this angle, but I do see it as possible.  It certainly wasn't directly stated, but one would logically want your heir to be part of your kingdom and not to be an exile.

 

21 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The first one is Jeyne Westerling.

The second person is Jason Mallister.

Both plausible explanations.  Side topic, I've always thought that Karstark should have been sent to Seagard as a prisoner, to be eventually sent to the wall once the ironborn were dealt with.  Wrote it up on reddit and everyone disagreed with me (at least who responded.  I was a bit shocked.

[Adam Yozza]

On 5/13/2020 at 11:09 PM, The Green Bard said:

Side topic, I've always thought that Karstark should have been sent to Seagard as a prisoner, to be eventually sent to the wall once the ironborn were dealt with.  Wrote it up on reddit and everyone disagreed with me (at least who responded.  I was a bit shocked.

From a practical standpoint I agree. But the punishment did fit the crime.

[BlackLightning]

The Wall? Maybe. I've always thought think the Blackfish is headed for Greywater Watch to meet up with Howland Reed and Maege Mormont but the Wall could his/their final destination.

[The Green Bard]

2 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

But the punishment did fit the crime.

Fair enough, but the politics didn't...  Compromise may be tough to stomach, but sometimes it is better to save the most lives.  That's my thought anyway.  

[Aebram]

Good morrow to all,

Pardon me for rocking the boat, but I'm not 100% convinced that Robb named Jon as his heir. Yes, he seemed very certain about it when he had that conversation with Cat. But later, he reveals his decision to the other lords ... and the chapter ends at that very moment, with no hint of what his decision actually was.  To me, that kind of smells like GRRM is setting us up for a surprise later on.

Perhaps, out of respect for his mother, Robb would name Arya as his heir, just in case she's still alive, with Jon as the backup. (He likely left Sansa out because she was married to Tyrion, and he wouldn't want Winterfell to fall into Lannister hands.)  He might even have used some vague language like, "in the event that none of my true-born siblings have survived ..." which would leave the door open for Bran or Rickon to inherit.

[House Of Wolves]

1 hour ago, Aebram said:

Good morrow to all,

Pardon me for rocking the boat, but I'm not 100% convinced that Robb named Jon as his heir. Yes, he seemed very certain about it when he had that conversation with Cat. But later, he reveals his decision to the other lords ... and the chapter ends at that very moment, with no hint of what his decision actually was.  To me, that kind of smells like GRRM is setting us up for a surprise later on.

Perhaps, out of respect for his mother, Robb would name Arya as his heir, just in case she's still alive, with Jon as the backup. (He likely left Sansa out because she was married to Tyrion, and he wouldn't want Winterfell to fall into Lannister hands.)  He might even have used some vague language like, "in the event that none of my true-born siblings have survived ..." which would leave the door open for Bran or Rickon to inherit.

I get why you might think that but I think GRRM did not want Jon  being named Robbs heir to come out of left field a book later. if he did that people might be upset there just happened to be this will that showed up books later that made Jon the rightful King over the other Stark kids.

The biggest issue with Robb naming someone else his heir is that no one else other then Jon works from a Robb decision stand point and a Character that we would care enough about to matter. Robb would not have named Arya his heir as she was believed to be dead or at best lost. This would have made no sense. It would do him the same good as naming no one. Sansa  was the main reason an heir had to be named as Sansa was in the control of Lannisters at the time.  Robbs only other options at the time would have been one of the Tullys. None are northmen.  Edmure already lord of  the RIverlands.  The Blackfish is possible but fairly old. Cat seems unlikely and was killed anyways. The only others possibilities is one of the other Lords with him during the war. None have played a part in the story since Robbs death and all were either captured or killed anyways. I dont see any one being a better option at the time for Robb over Jon .

[divica]

1 hour ago, Aebram said:

Good morrow to all,

Pardon me for rocking the boat, but I'm not 100% convinced that Robb named Jon as his heir. Yes, he seemed very certain about it when he had that conversation with Cat. But later, he reveals his decision to the other lords ... and the chapter ends at that very moment, with no hint of what his decision actually was.  To me, that kind of smells like GRRM is setting us up for a surprise later on.

Perhaps, out of respect for his mother, Robb would name Arya as his heir, just in case she's still alive, with Jon as the backup. (He likely left Sansa out because she was married to Tyrion, and he wouldn't want Winterfell to fall into Lannister hands.)  He might even have used some vague language like, "in the event that none of my true-born siblings have survived ..." which would leave the door open for Bran or Rickon to inherit.

The problem is that robb is convinced that all his siblings are dead. He has no reason to think about bran or rickon… And in regards to arya, he hisn t making a will for the possible event he might die in a couple of years. He is worried he might die before impregnating his wife! He is thinking about the imediate future and therefore wether he thinks she is lost or dead it doesn t matter. If robb died in the next battle his army needed a leader imediatly. That was robb's idea when writting the will.

Another big problem with the will. As long as robb legitmized jon he automatically becomes his heir because he is his oldest brother. So, even if rickon and bran do appear if jon is released from his vows (a complicated prospect) he his the legitimate heir.

I seriously have no idea how jon, bran, rickon and other lords will react to this… 

[House Of Wolves]

28 minutes ago, divica said:

Another big problem with the will. As long as robb legitmized jon he automatically becomes his heir because he is his oldest brother. So, even if rickon and bran do appear if jon is released from his vows (a complicated prospect) he his the legitimate heir.

 A lot of people overlook this Fact. As Catelyn told Robb when he was planning to name Jon his heir. Once it is done it cannot be undone. Robbs will assuming the very likley aspect that Robb Legitimized  Jon. Then Jon becomes the rightful heir over all the other Stark children. There would only be a few ways to refute Jon as the rightful King.

1. If you deny that Robb was king. If you can deny Robb was king then you could say he had no right to Legitimize Jon. But people are going to have a hard time convincing many in the North Robb was never a king.

2.  You could make the argument he was not the rightful king if it was ever discovered Jon was not Neds son , then some might refute his claim to the throne. People could though based on Robbs wording still say he had the rightful claim to the North. Jon not being Neds son I could possibly see becoming a problem for Jons claim down the line in the books.

3. also if Jon himself refused the throne.

[divica]

1 minute ago, House Of Wolves said:

 A lot of people overlook this Fact. As Catelyn told Robb when he was planning to name Jon his heir. Once it is done it cannot be undone. Robbs will assuming the very likley aspect that Robb Legitimized  Jon. Then Jon becomes the rightful heir over all the other Stark children. There would only be a few ways to refute Jon as the rightful King.

1. If you deny that Robb was king. If you can deny Robb was king then you could say he had no right to Legitimize Jon. But people are going to have a hard time convincing many in the North Robb was never a king.

2.  You could make the argument if it was ever discovered Jon was not Neds son , then some might refute his claim to the throne. People could though based on Robbs wording still say he had  rightful claim to the North.

3. also if Jon himself refused the throne.

I don t know if the northern lords might also dispute that the will was written thinking bran and rickon were dead. Depending on how they view jon and bastards in general they might want to find any excuse available to not follow jon.

I don t think jon will refuse the throne. Not because he really wants it, but because he is the best choice to unite the north agains the ww. The wildlings won t follow a child. Neither bran or rickon know enough to unite the north and prepare it for the greatest war in generations. It is idiotic to follow children into war. The north needs someone wise to make aliances with the wildlings, the remaining iron born and whoever else might be available...

And while jon might be able to solve a lot of the issues being regent I think he needs to make too many unpopular decisions. He will need enough autority so that people don t question or undermine him.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

Whether Jon takes up the mantle or chooses to let Rickon be the Lord of Winterfell / KitN, I think the idea is that Jon is the one who will be regent and rule, no matter the sibling that surfaces. He is of age. They are not. Plus Artos the Implacable was introduced through Jon's POV.

The Liddles know that Bran is still alive. Manderly / Glover know Bran and Rickon are alive. I think the odds are good that Manderly knows about Robb's will as well. Three of the people who bore witness to it were not at the Red Wedding.

I think Robb's will will have a lot to do with Jon's own emotional state. He refused Stannis's offer, but Robb decided to bypass the people who are next in line for Winterfell, the cousins from the Vale, in favor of legitimizing Jon, buying his freedom from the NW and making him his heir. That speaks to Robb's feelings about Jon and Ned's prayer that Robb and Jon would grow up as close as brothers.

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, divica said:

The problem is that robb is convinced that all his siblings are dead. He has no reason to think about bran or rickon… And in regards to arya, he hisn t making a will for the possible event he might die in a couple of years. He is worried he might die before impregnating his wife! He is thinking about the imediate future and therefore wether he thinks she is lost or dead it doesn t matter. If robb died in the next battle his army needed a

And yet, when Robb tells Mormont, Glover, the Greatjon, Edmure, Mallister, and Cat abou his decision, he brings up his dead brothers and the fact that Sansa is married to Tyrion, Arya’s name is conspicuously absent.

“One more matter. Lord Balon has left chaos in his wake, we hope. I would not do the same. Yet I have no son as yet, my brothers Bran and Rickon are dead, and my sister is wed to a Lannister. I’ve thought long and hard about who might follow me. I command you now as my true and loyal lords to fix your seals to this document as witnesses to my decision.”

[divica]

4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And yet, when Robb tells Mormont, Glover, the Greatjon, Edmure, Mallister, and Cat abou his decision, he brings up his dead brothers and the fact that Sansa is married to Tyrion, Arya’s name is conspicuously absent.

“One more matter. Lord Balon has left chaos in his wake, we hope. I would not do the same. Yet I have no son as yet, my brothers Bran and Rickon are dead, and my sister is wed to a Lannister. I’ve thought long and hard about who might follow me. I command you now as my true and loyal lords to fix your seals to this document as witnesses to my decision.”

Even if she is absent we know from the context that Robb is worried about dying in the near future. In a time-frame before impregnating his wife. So if he was killed within weeks what is the use of naming Arya his heir? 

 

They have no idea where Arya is or if she is alive. Can you imagine Robb dying in his first battle to retake the north and the whole army stopping the war in order to look for Arya? Just doesn t make sense

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, divica said:

Even if she is absent we know from the context that Robb is worried about dying in the near future. In a time-frame before impregnating his wife. So if he was killed within weeks what is the use of naming Arya his heir? 

 

They have no idea where Arya is or if she is alive. Can you imagine Robb dying in his first battle to retake the north and the whole army stopping the war in order to look for Arya? Just doesn t make sense

Well, it depends on when the will turns up. As of the end of Dance (f)Arya just got married to Ramsay.