US Politics: OBAMAGATE - An American Story

[IheartIheartTesla]

Speaking of Georgia, I wonder if the reason it is getting so competitive is the purpling of the suburbs that surround Atlanta (Alpharetta, Marietta etc.). That coupled with high AA interest in the outcome of recent elections could explain some of the movement away from Trump (beginning 2016, of course).

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, DMC said:

Georgia: The Cradle of Democracy

 

I don't even get this joke.

It wasn't a joke.

And do you not have a Facebook account? Everyone is spamming this new stupid app.  

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And do you not have a Facebook account? Everyone is spamming this new stupid app.  

My first account with facebook was back when it was only available to certain universities in 2004.  My roommate signed me up.  I didn't want it then, but played along for awhile, then didn't use it for years (tried to delete it dozens of times, but not sure if you ever really can).  Then when I started my phd program I created a new account because my cohort preferred to use it to organize meetups.  That waned years ago.  Now only time I bother to check is to talk to my cousin or when my Mancunian friend goes back over the summer.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

12 minutes ago, DMC said:

My first account with facebook was back when it was only available to certain universities in 2004.  My roommate signed me up.  I didn't want it then, but played along for awhile, then didn't use it for years (tried to delete it dozens of times, but not sure if you ever really can).  Then when I started my phd program I created a new account because my cohort preferred to use it to organize meetups.  That waned years ago.  Now only time I bother to check is to talk to my cousin or when my Mancunian friend goes back over the summer.

My HS sweetheart made mine. I never wanted one. Fuck, I never even thought I'd want to post here. I don't do social media for myself, by and large, because I've had to do it for the EOs I've worked for, and nobody needs to see the shit people send them.

But yeah, there's a dumb avatar app people are going crazy with right now on FB, and it's so idiotic. Go login and look.

[Maithanet]

22 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Speaking of Georgia, I wonder if the reason it is getting so competitive is the purpling of the suburbs that surround Atlanta (Alpharetta, Marietta etc.). That coupled with high AA interest in the outcome of recent elections could explain some of the movement away from Trump (beginning 2016, of course).

The old 1990s paradigm for Texas, Georgia and most of the South was that the inner cities were very democratic, but then the suburbs were a very conservative ring around them, of more or less equal population.  Then the rural areas are also conservative, so the state is safely Republican.  But in 2016 and 2018, it has instead been that the cities were very democratic, and the suburbs were very competitive.  And thus it was up to the rural areas to outvote the urban areas.  Kemp was just barely able to pull that off in 2018. 

The suburbs of Atlanta are indeed getting much less conservative, and I believe a greater and greater percentage of GA voters are in Atlanta and its suburbs. 

[Maithanet]

Some recent(ish) state polling:

VA - Biden +12

AZ - Biden +7

FL - Biden +6

NC - Trump +3

Pollsters like Harry Enten are complaining that some of these polls aren't weighting for education, and thus likely to have a bit of a pro-Biden lean.  Nonetheless, those look like good numbers on the whole, even if NC is disappointing.  If Biden wins even just one of the AZ/FL/NC trifecta, then I like his chances.  If he wins two, it is practically in the bag. 

EDIT:  Another Florida poll had Biden +4.5.  The AZ poll also had Mark Kelly up 13(!!) points in the Senate race.

[Ormond]

12 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I choose to believe that the doctor is slowly poisoning Trump while telling him he's totally fine

Sorry, but I think it's more likely his doctor is giving him a placebo while telling him he's getting hydroxychloroquine. 

[Centrist Simon Steele]

10 hours ago, ants said:

Ok, so I went back to check, to see if I was wrong.  Teej6 did use the word. After you used it for the first time in this thread (on page 4), in the post I was quoting of yours.  Teej6 used the word in responding to your post.  Hell, so did I when responding to your use of it.  

If you don't want to debate points, fine.  But don't claim something happened that didn't.  Don't say that my responses are circular without saying why.  If you don't want to or can't respond, own that.  Don't play a made up victim.   

Your research skills are suspect. Seriously, I don't care what your problem is with me. So, have a good day! (because I went back and checked my page 4 post where I said the clearly terrible phrase "categorical denial" which was me responding--with a quote in my text--to Teej who used the phrase first). Seriously, I get it, you don't like me, but let it go. You're wrong.

Edit: hell, bro I even put the phrase in quotes to denote those weren't my words. I'm not playing "victim" (those quotes means that is your word if you're unfamiliar with quoting), Im just pointing out that your dislike of me clearly has clouded your ability to be rational. It doesn't bother me that you dislike me because I don't know you. You're a name and a picture. So, again, let it go. It's dumb.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Ormond said:

Sorry, but I think it's more likely his doctor is giving him a placebo while telling him he's getting hydroxychloroquine. 

I agree, but that's the funny part with Trump. You could give him poison and tell him it's water or vice versa, as long as you told him it's what all the popular people are doing, and if you're the last person to speak to him, he probably drinks it.  

[IheartIheartTesla]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Pollsters like Harry Enten are complaining that some of these polls aren't weighting for education, and thus likely to have a bit of a pro-Biden lean.  Nonetheless, those look like good numbers on the whole, even if NC is disappointing.  If Biden wins even just one of the AZ/FL/NC trifecta, then I like his chances.  If he wins two, it is practically in the bag. 

EDIT:  Another Florida poll had Biden +4.5.  The AZ poll also had Mark Kelly up 13(!!) points in the Senate race.

There's actually a fair bit of state level polling that you can find on the 538 site, if you root around a little. Most from B or B/C level pollsters, but hey, at least its something. The NC poll you are referencing I think is from East Carolina University (not sure why NC and SC need to have an EC).  Some others from Data for Progress have Biden up (and they track numbers frequently, so you can look for movement). Still, hoping for Emerson or Monmouth to come out with some quality state polls (Emerson had Trump + 3 in Texas and Ohio, which is a big shift)

[Zorral]

The point was to get ho-hum Dems enthusiastic to vote for Biden, when neither Biden nor the Dems are doing anything to get ho-humers to do so -- or even have anywhere for them to vote, or push back against shutting down the post office, thus absentee, vote-by-mail ballots, and armed deathcultist 'watching' the polling places.

But no, let's weep over whether or not the local CDRs, which are playing such a role in crushing the virus in Cuba, may or may not be surveilling people's internets, when, of course FB etc. actually SELL ALL YOUR OWN DATA TO THE PEOPLE WHO ARE ACTIVELY INTERFERING WITH US ELECTIONS and to, of course, corps and banks and employers, etc.  Yet, keeping FB accounts . . . .

 

 

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

When you take things that aren't yours it's STEALING. These places and their managers engaging in this theft should be prosecuted to maximum penalty available.

Some nursing homes are taking residents' stimulus checks, FTC warns

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/us/stimulus-checks-nursing-home-theft-trnd/index.html

[Rippounet]

3 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

When you take things that aren't yours it's STEALING. These places and their managers engaging in this theft should be prosecuted to maximum penalty available.

Some nursing homes are taking residents' stimulus checks, FTC warns

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/us/stimulus-checks-nursing-home-theft-trnd/index.html

Sounds like Better Call Saul.

[Fragile Bird]

22 hours ago, Mexal said:

It's so far divorced from the fundamentals that I just cannot see it lasting like this beyond this year. Think about the Big Short and how the guys who figured out what was happening couldn't understand why the market wasn't crashing. I think there is some of that here. At some point, all of the debt load that people are carrying will come crashing down... or it won't. I guess we'll see.

I wanted to respond to this.

I will point out that I said there would be a dead cat bounce. Well, we have had a helluva a dead cat bounce. However, I still believe there will be another correction, for the very simple reason Covid-19 ain't over. The Dow is almost back to where it was at the end of May, 2018, when we had a lot of discussion about whether this was the start of the long awaited correction. It dropped to 24,815 at that time, and then soared almost 19% to a record high on Feb. 14 of this year, to 29,398.

I think you have to ask yourself, is the US the same place it was on May 31, 2018? Same travelling, same unemployment, same consumer purchases? Same rock concerts, same sports games, same dining out? Same confidence?

There are a lot of people cheering for a V-shaped recovery, but I just don't see it. How can that happen when companies won't even give guidance? Someone on CNBC pooh-poohed this idea, saying the market always looks forward and the stock market is looking forward to, not 2021, but 2022. That's a huge time frame, and a lot can happen in the next 18 to 24 months. Now, this guy likely manages hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars, so what do I know, right?

I've also been paying attention to the fact that most of the market gains have been driven by a very limited number of stocks, and mainly by Facebook, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft. And other managers, equally as impressive, have suggested there will be a rotation out of these stock names because that's what stocks do, and that rotation out will lead the market down. When will this happen? Sometime in the next few months, may be as long as 6 months.

The fall has been historically the worst time of the year for corrections and bears, because, as I have said before, third quarter numbers come out and the realization sets in that businesses don't have the time to turn things around before year end. I think you also have to add the fact that there will be a lot of bankruptcies coming as well. Many closed businesses will never re-open, meaning unemployment will remain high. And since the US economy is consumer driven, as we just discussed, the economy will slow.

That's the best I can do. I took a look at my portfolio, and I sold off stocks in February that I thought would be really hard hit, but I didn't sell enough of them. I expect I will sell the ones that have done well sometime soon, though.

[Guest]

Re: the market, since it looks like McConnell and Republicans will end up caving and passing another stimulus package, I've decided to wait until mid-June (which is the likeliest timeframe for when it'll pass) and then re-assess.

I know this will probably help put a ceiling on the bounce resulting from the stimulus, but McConnell has made liability waivers for businesses his red line, and while I understand that some of that will be necessary, I'm hoping Dems can extract some concessions, such as more stringent employee protections, like the ability to refuse work if the employee doesn't feel safe while still being able to collect unemployment.

[Zorral]

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

When you take things that aren't yours it's STEALING. These places and their managers engaging in this theft should be prosecuted to maximum penalty available.

Some nursing homes are taking residents' stimulus checks, FTC warns

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/us/stimulus-checks-nursing-home-theft-trnd/index.html

Remember last year when the odious NYT columnist (not the most odious, of course -- the competition is great) Thomas Friedman wrote this self-congratulatory 'think' piece solving the US's Cuba dilemma and Cuba's economy?  Simple solution! Send them our elderly, incontinent, disabled, and dementia parents to Cuba and have Cuba excellent medical labor wipe their asses in our stead.

If we had, those people would probably be alive today.  This would be hilarious if it weren't just so tragic.

 

[DMC]

6 hours ago, Maithanet said:

But in 2016 and 2018, it has instead been that the cities were very democratic, and the suburbs were very competitive.  And thus it was up to the rural areas to outvote the urban areas.  Kemp was just barely able to pull that off in 2018. 

The suburbs of Atlanta are indeed getting much less conservative, and I believe a greater and greater percentage of GA voters are in Atlanta and its suburbs. 

This echoes CPR's Amy Walter in a recent piece:

Quote

There's little doubt that Georgia is becoming more competitive. While Mitt Romney carried the state in 2012 by 53 percent, both Trump and 2018 GOP nominee, Brian Kemp, took just over 50 percent of the vote. A lot of this movement can be traced to shifting voting patterns in and around Atlanta. For example, in 2012, Obama carried Fulton County (Atlanta) by 19 points. Just four years later, Clinton carried it by a whopping 44 points and Abrams expanded that gap to 46 points. Suburban Gwinnett and Cobb Counties, long known as traditional GOP strongholds, flipped to Clinton in 2016 and gave even more of their votes to Abrams in 2018. 

Even so, it will take more than just an improvement in the Atlanta and urban/suburban areas of the state to flip it Democratic. It also takes shaving points off the large share of the vote Republicans like Trump and Kemp can generate from small town, exurban and rural parts of the state.

It should be noted, if you don't click the link, that the point of that article though is why they're keeping Georgia at Lean Republican rather than moving it to Toss Up.

5 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The AZ poll also had Mark Kelly up 13(!!) points in the Senate race.

This is entirely anecdotal/unscientific, but the Senate races are starting to remind my of 2006.  I recall there were a couple races in purple states - specifically Casey over Santorum and Brown over DeWine - wherein the Dem challenger showed a solid lead against a GOP incumbent this early in the cycle.  I'm tempted to compare that to Hickenlooper over Gardner and Kelly over McSally.  The Dems picked up 6 seats btw, and retook the Senate - with Joe Lieberman as the 51st vote after being ousted in the Dem primary but winning the general as an independent.  Joe's son Matt is running as a Democrat for Loeffler's seat, albeit Warnock is the stronger Democratic challenger.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

16 hours ago, ants said:

1st - phew!  You never quite know on these boards!

2nd - Yes I do know (shudders).  

I have no issue with someone who creates the niftiest solution ever, them making lots and lots of money.  If Jane Doe tomorrow invents cold-fusion, and becomes a billionaire, good for her.

I do have an issue with her not contributing a big chunk back via taxes.  I have a huge problem with any children receiving huge amounts of money, private education, access to opportunities not there for anyone else, stepping into high management roles, and being set for life, especially when contributing little in tax and often saying anyone could make it if they try hard enough, like their dear departed mum Jane Doe.  I have a real issue with current C-suite remuneration, which I think is ridiculous.

I just think the idea that only a 2x difference is somehow justified, or that we should entirely remove the incentives to save, invest, take risks, back yourself and focus on wealth should be entirely scrapped as wrong.  

I also believe there are solutions to inequality that do not necessitate capping wealth via State fiat.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 hours ago, Zorral said:

The point was to get ho-hum Dems enthusiastic to vote for Biden, when neither Biden nor the Dems are doing anything to get ho-humers to do so -- or even have anywhere for them to vote, or push back against shutting down the post office, thus absentee, vote-by-mail ballots, and armed deathcultist 'watching' the polling places.

But no, let's weep over whether or not the local CDRs, which are playing such a role in crushing the virus in Cuba, may or may not be surveilling people's internets, when, of course FB etc. actually SELL ALL YOUR OWN DATA TO THE PEOPLE WHO ARE ACTIVELY INTERFERING WITH US ELECTIONS and to, of course, corps and banks and employers, etc.  Yet, keeping FB accounts . . . .

 

 

 

Isn’t that the tu quoque fallacy?

[Guest]

I <3 Sherrod Brown.